http://crookedtimber.org/2004/10/05/telling-stories-with-pictures/ Out of the crooked timber of humanity, no straight thing was ever made Sun, 22 Nov 2009 15:00:24 -0800 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.6 hourly 1 http://crookedtimber.org/2004/10/05/telling-stories-with-pictures/comment-page-1/#comment-45315 nick Thu, 07 Oct 2004 09:26:45 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/wp/?p=2308#comment-45315 In other news, the IEM is set to open a market on when Rodney Dangerfield will die. In other news, the IEM is set to open a market on when Rodney Dangerfield will die.

]]> http://crookedtimber.org/2004/10/05/telling-stories-with-pictures/comment-page-1/#comment-45314 Jeremy Osner Wed, 06 Oct 2004 18:23:57 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/wp/?p=2308#comment-45314 Simstim -- a good predictor could still be better close to the event than it was further out -- that doesn't really seem to be true of the IEM for 2000 as shown in this graphic though. Simstim—a good predictor could still be better close to the event than it was further out—that doesn’t really seem to be true of the IEM for 2000 as shown in this graphic though.

]]> http://crookedtimber.org/2004/10/05/telling-stories-with-pictures/comment-page-1/#comment-45313 nnyhav Wed, 06 Oct 2004 16:57:12 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/wp/?p=2308#comment-45313 via Marginal Rev, <a href="http://www.nobelpreisboerse.de/stocks.aspx?stc=6">the value of a good economist</a>. via Marginal Rev, the value of a good economist.

]]> http://crookedtimber.org/2004/10/05/telling-stories-with-pictures/comment-page-1/#comment-45312 nnyhav Wed, 06 Oct 2004 16:01:43 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/wp/?p=2308#comment-45312 <a href="http://www.arxiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0410079">(I)EMH and the wisdom of crowds of experts who should know better.</a> (I)EMH and the wisdom of crowds of experts who should know better.

]]> http://crookedtimber.org/2004/10/05/telling-stories-with-pictures/comment-page-1/#comment-45311 Simstim Wed, 06 Oct 2004 14:59:20 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/wp/?p=2308#comment-45311 But wouldn't an ideal predictor not change at all, it'd be right from day one? But wouldn’t an ideal predictor not change at all, it’d be right from day one?

]]> http://crookedtimber.org/2004/10/05/telling-stories-with-pictures/comment-page-1/#comment-45310 Alex Wed, 06 Oct 2004 13:44:28 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/wp/?p=2308#comment-45310 Robert: you are correct. Gore paid off in 2000. I don't see the similarities, myself. If anything that 2000 graph (which had Gore losing the popular vote in late Oct.) shows what a seriously bad predictor the IEM can be. Perhaps that's Daniel's point? Tradesports odds are more even (54/56 ish for the popular vote contract.) Robert: you are correct. Gore paid off in 2000. I don’t see the similarities, myself. If anything that 2000 graph (which had Gore losing the popular vote in late Oct.) shows what a seriously bad predictor the IEM can be. Perhaps that’s Daniel’s point? Tradesports odds are more even (54/56 ish for the popular vote contract.)

]]> http://crookedtimber.org/2004/10/05/telling-stories-with-pictures/comment-page-1/#comment-45309 George Tue, 05 Oct 2004 23:50:33 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/wp/?p=2308#comment-45309 Seems plausible that share value would get more extreme as the time till the election shrinks and the prevailing polls are therefore thought to be better predictors, subject to perhaps one major reversal of opinion. But you'd think traders would gain a better grasp of that dynamic more quickly -- ie, that the values would be largely flat at 50 just about until election eve. Seems plausible that share value would get more extreme as the time till the election shrinks and the prevailing polls are therefore thought to be better predictors, subject to perhaps one major reversal of opinion. But you’d think traders would gain a better grasp of that dynamic more quickly—ie, that the values would be largely flat at 50 just about until election eve.

]]> http://crookedtimber.org/2004/10/05/telling-stories-with-pictures/comment-page-1/#comment-45308 Robert Tue, 05 Oct 2004 23:17:17 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/wp/?p=2308#comment-45308 It looks like the contracts pay off on the popular vote, not the electoral college. So did the Gore contracts pay off in 2000? It looks like the contracts pay off on the popular vote, not the electoral college. So did the Gore contracts pay off in 2000?

]]> http://crookedtimber.org/2004/10/05/telling-stories-with-pictures/comment-page-1/#comment-45307 Kenny Easwaran Tue, 05 Oct 2004 22:40:46 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/wp/?p=2308#comment-45307 Nice to know that the roles are reversed this time. Though I don't quite understand why Bush stock crashed so drastically on November 6 - didn't they say he had basically won by then? Nice to know that the roles are reversed this time. Though I don’t quite understand why Bush stock crashed so drastically on November 6 – didn’t they say he had basically won by then?

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