Comments on: Ask the audience or Condorcet goes to Washington

By: fling93

fling93 — Thu, 21 Oct 2004 22:48:34 +0000

The goal of an election is not to select the “correct” candidate. The goal is to select a candidate that is most representative of the voters.

By: Mark Snyder

Mark Snyder — Wed, 20 Oct 2004 14:13:08 +0000

In the above, “set of probability” should just read “probability”.

By: Mark Snyder

Mark Snyder — Wed, 20 Oct 2004 14:04:31 +0000

Objections have been raised on the grounds that a multinomial distribution would be a better model than a binomial distribution: “but the wisdom of various sub-communities that have different information consumption habits (aminly b/c of different newspapers, news programs, and media buys).” and on the grounds that the independence assumption is unwarranted: “Jim’s problem isn’t the only one. Condorcet’s theorem assumes that the voters’ decisions are independent, right?..That’s a really bad assumption to make…given the herd mentality/popularity contest dimensions of all real large-scale elections.” To handle the former objection, you would have to partition the voters into N sub-groups, where each sub-group i has their own set of probability e_i (where e_i=1-v_i). If we take the average of all of the e_i’s, i.e., e=(e_1+e_2+…+e_N)/N and use e for the original model, then the asymptotic behavior—the behavior when the number of voters gets huge—will be the same for both models. They both go to the same limit in the almost sure sense. So it’s reasonable to talk about the e for a typical voter, nationwide. As for independence, sure they don’t make up their minds independently, so e may be thought of as a random variable and thus the votes cast are dependent until e is chosen—meaning until election day—but conditional on e equal to some number the voter preferences are all independent.

By: Mark Snyder

Mark Snyder — Wed, 20 Oct 2004 14:03:35 +0000

Objections have been raised on the grounds that a multinomial distribution would be a better model than a binomial distribution: “but the wisdom of various sub-communities that have different information consumption habits (aminly b/c of different newspapers, news programs, and media buys).” and on the grounds that the independence assumption is unwarranted: “Jim’s problem isn’t the only one. Condorcet’s theorem assumes that the voters’ decisions are independent, right?..That’s a really bad assumption to make…given the herd mentality/popularity contest dimensions of all real large-scale elections.” To handle the former objection, you would have to partition the voters into N sub-groups, where each sub-group i has their own set of probability e_i (where e_i=1-v_i). If we take the average of all of the e_i’s, i.e., e=(e_1+e_2+…+e_N)/N and use e for the original model, then the asymptotic behavior—the behavior when the number of voters gets huge—will be the same for both models. They both go to the same limit in the almost sure sense. So it’s reasonable to talk about the e for a typical voter, nationwide. As for independence, sure they don’t make up there minds independently, so e may be thought of as a random variable and thus the votes cast are dependent until e is chosen—meaning until election day—but conditional on e equal to some number the voter preferences are all independent.

By: David M

David M — Wed, 20 Oct 2004 11:50:07 +0000

Interesting, but hopelessly complicated by the electoral college. It's not a question of aggregating the wisdom of the American population, but the wisdom of various sub-communities that have different information consumption habits (aminly b/c of different newspapers, news programs, and media buys). n is much smaller at the state level, and v likely varies considerably from state to state and region to region.

By: Brett Bellmore

Brett Bellmore — Wed, 20 Oct 2004 11:39:21 +0000

But, G, a collection of voters who are interested in single issues, inform themselves about those issues, and vote on them, while being utterly indifferent to other issues, should be just dandy according to Condorcet, right? They’re contributing information on the one issue, and their randomly distributed votes on the other issues null out… ;)

By: vernaculo

vernaculo — Wed, 20 Oct 2004 01:07:57 +0000

The best servants don’t do what they’re told, they anticipate the needs of those they serve. It’s the same with public servants. It’s the issues we don’t know about yet that are going to be the most important. Having a leader in place who can respond effectively, rather than just obediently, should be the goal of the electoral process. That it isn’t is an idictment of the mercantile bondage of the public. We make consumer choices now about everything, even matters of the spirit and the heart. Except for the odd diet now and again, and budget constraints, consumers never sacrifice; but it’s a time for sacrifice. We need leadership in that, because most of us have forgotten how.

By: Tom

Tom — Wed, 20 Oct 2004 01:03:53 +0000

As an empirical matter, is there any reason to think people who vote for Kerry because they think he has Bush’s policies outnumber those who vote for Bush because they think he holds Kerry’s positions? If we think mistaken votes are roughly equally between the two candidates, then I’m not sure that it matters, distressing though we may find it.

By: Janis Canon

Janis Canon — Wed, 20 Oct 2004 00:30:09 +0000

The original post and all of the comments have been great fun for the mind. However, it may be that we need to simpify a little. I think back to my sister’s response to a comment I made that began, “Anyone with average intelligence . . .” She looked over her glasses at me and said, “Remember, average intelligence is 100.” Throw in a bit of cognitive dissonance, and you might have the answer to what is going on in the minds of many of the voters.

By: Tom T.

Tom T. — Wed, 20 Oct 2004 00:24:23 +0000

These considerations help to illuminate the old notion of “the worst form of government, but for all the others.”

By: Janis Canon

Janis Canon — Wed, 20 Oct 2004 00:14:21 +0000

By: Janis Canon

Janis Canon — Wed, 20 Oct 2004 00:13:59 +0000

By: Janis Canon

Janis Canon — Tue, 19 Oct 2004 23:58:58 +0000

At times such as this, I think back to my sister’s response to a comment I made that began, “Anyone with average intelligence . . .” She just looked over her glasses at me and said, “Remember, average intelligence is 100.”

By: james

james — Tue, 19 Oct 2004 23:42:54 +0000

john b – Are you certain the usage is incorrect? The phrase “The American voter” was used in a manner similar to “John Q Public”.

By: john b

john b — Tue, 19 Oct 2004 23:07:38 +0000

It will only anger the American voter to suggest that foreign nationals should be involved in electing the US President. There’s only one left? Wow, I knew there was a downside to those disenfranchisement dirty tricks.