Comments on: October surprise

By: dsquared

dsquared — Mon, 01 Nov 2004 01:39:40 +0000

Back up to 46% …

By: John

John — Sun, 31 Oct 2004 10:06:49 +0000

Somebody PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE take me away from Bizarro Earth.

By: david

david — Sat, 30 Oct 2004 21:20:59 +0000

This is very confusing. 1. The video seems to be an endorsement of Kerry by bin Laden. However, Americans hate bin Laden, so whatever he recommends they do, they tend to do the opposite. Bin Laden, presumably, knows this. So, 2. The video is really an “opposite day” endorsement of Bush. So bin Laden is really trying to get Americans to vote for Bush. However, again, most Americans hate bin Laden and want to do the opposite of whatever he recommends. So you’d think that given (2), they should vote for Kerry. If we assume that bin Laden knows this about Americans, then 3. The video is really an opposite-opposite day endorsement of Kerry. I’m not sure how many times this thing can reverse itself before it comes to a stop. Two questions: (A) Supposing everyone knows what everyone knows (including knows that they know, etc.), is there any point at which this opposite-land thing can stop and the video can be interpreted as an endorsement of either candidate? (B) In the real world, is it really so obvious whether bin Laden is endorsing either candidate? Seems to me that depends on 1. how far-sighted bin Laden is and 2. how far-sighted bin Laden thinks Americans are.

By: Martin Wisse

Martin Wisse — Sat, 30 Oct 2004 17:02:47 +0000

In a sane universe, this video would hurt Bush, who had 3 years to get Bin Laden and didn’t, rather then Kerry. In the universe we live in, it’s the media response which will determine whom it hurts. Therefore Kerry needs to get his message across loudly: this proves Bush was asleep at the job.

By: abb1

abb1 — Sat, 30 Oct 2004 16:53:54 +0000

I was just watching the McLaughlin Group and Eleanor Clift said she thought the Osama tape should be concluded with “I am George Bush and I approve this message”. I am not so sure, though. People have been saying that there is ceiling to Bush support and he’s reached it already. I can’t imagine that anyone who was going to vote for Kerry would change his/her mind because of this tape. Now it’s all about voter turnout and I don’t see how this tape can affect it.

By: yes bush can

yes bush can — Sat, 30 Oct 2004 14:05:09 +0000

Videotape – $1.50. Vintage tunic and turban from the Karachi market – $25. Desk from Ikea – $30. Postage – free. Bin Laden on tv quoting a scene from Michael Moore’s film and calling Bush a liar 3 days before elections – priceless. For all the rest, there’s Bush/Cheney ‘04.

By: dsquared

dsquared — Sat, 30 Oct 2004 10:56:31 +0000

Of course, conventional wisdom was that the Madrid bombing would seal it up for Aznar …

By: Professor von Nostrand

Professor von Nostrand — Sat, 30 Oct 2004 05:28:24 +0000

We don’t really need to wait for the online version. According to Andrew Sullivan, Bill O’Reilly said the following on his show tonight: “So Eminem joins Osama in coming out against Bush.” Is it a ‘no spin zone’ or a ‘no sane zone’?

By: Joseph Briggs

Joseph Briggs — Sat, 30 Oct 2004 04:04:43 +0000

Matt, you appear to be correct. Kerry’s response wasn’t turned into an opportunistic attack on Bush. But it might force BC04 to avoid invoking 911 in the next few days.

By: mitch p.

mitch p. — Sat, 30 Oct 2004 04:01:54 +0000

GNXP.com had a post, “Osama endorses Kerry”. That was the first I saw. PacificViews.org, meanwhile, predicted that the American public would hear Osama as saying, “vote for Bush”.

By: matt butler

matt butler — Sat, 30 Oct 2004 01:53:55 +0000

Unfortunately, I don’t think Bush has to resond to anything. To address the content of the bin Laden tape would be dignify a dispicable terrorist (and to risk people noticing that the tape is a pretty clear backhanded endorsement). The safe strategy for the Republicans is to sit back and pretend that this development is too grave to “politicize”. The serene face of America’s bogeyman will be all over every television from now until the election, and an electorate worked into a frenzy of fear and rage is an electorate that votes Bush.

By: neil

neil — Sat, 30 Oct 2004 01:39:53 +0000

Responding to bin Laden is a step away from negotiating with him. It’s not an acceptable course of action and neither one of the candidates is going to dignify this two-bit criminal by talking tough to him.

By: David W.

David W. — Sat, 30 Oct 2004 01:09:31 +0000

When the taunting that bin Laden gives Bush is so blatant, I think that cuts right at Bush’s presumed strength – namely his manly pride. Bush can’t just kick back and let others smear Kerry on this, he has to step up and respond to bin Laden, and I really wonder if Bush has it in him to do it.

By: Miss Authoritiva

Miss Authoritiva — Fri, 29 Oct 2004 23:45:35 +0000

So even bin Laden fully grasps the “My Pet Goat” meme. I wonder how Bush feels being taunted this way—not that he doesn’t deserve it.

By: neil

neil — Fri, 29 Oct 2004 23:43:44 +0000

Oh, and by the way, Tradesports does not show a Bush bounce after the tape was released. In fact, their Bush contract has declined in the last week to a near lifetime low (except for one crash when someone flooded the market going short).