Comments on: More Market News

By: Matt Krause

Matt Krause — Wed, 03 Nov 2004 07:01:38 +0000

As of 2am EST, it seems that the market has given it to Bush: Symbol Bid Ask Last Low High Average DEM04_G52 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.016 0.005 DEM04_L52 0.014 0.020 0.015 0.001 0.028 0.008 REP04_L52 0.851 0.899 0.898 0.787 0.944 0.865 REP04_G52 0.070 0.090 0.071 0.050 0.169 0.112

By: dsquared

dsquared — Wed, 03 Nov 2004 01:17:54 +0000

It’s rather a shame that there is no “Comment of the Week” award at CT, because Kevin D. would certainly have won it.

By: dsquared

dsquared — Tue, 02 Nov 2004 23:35:44 +0000

Bush now down to 17+5 mid price on IEM. Surely to God he’s got more of a chance than that? Tradesports has him at 29 bid. For what it’s worth, Newsnight just suggested that Kerry’s lead in the early exit polls was attenuating as more information came in …

By: dsquared

dsquared — Tue, 02 Nov 2004 23:19:49 +0000

Further to John’s point, if you look at the comments to my post on the IEM, you’ll see that a crowd which religiously read everything posted on CT could have made big profits[1]; there was a fairly material delay between the exit polls going up on Slate and the prices moving. [1] in percentage terms anyway; I suspect that liquidity on those contracts were crap.

By: alex

alex — Tue, 02 Nov 2004 23:14:13 +0000

I wonder: if Kerry does win, will the conservative blame-it-on-the-media crowd try to argue that Bush lost because Slate posted the exit poll numbers, creating confidence for a Kerry victory?

By: John Quiggin

John Quiggin — Tue, 02 Nov 2004 23:05:26 +0000

Looking at the movements today, I’d say the markets have the wisdom of a crowd that gets its info from Slate. A big win for the semi-strong version of the EMH, and an equally big loss for the strong version.

By: kevin donoghue

kevin donoghue — Tue, 02 Nov 2004 23:04:44 +0000

“Fair do’s to the gambling public; they’re putting their cock on the block and calling it early doors.” So D-squared, who (quite reasonably) holds that an aggregate production function is an indefensible concept, contends that the gambling public has an aggregate cock. I look forward to a post on that topic.

By: Brian Weatherson

Brian Weatherson — Tue, 02 Nov 2004 22:58:37 +0000

Henry, where did you get those #s from? I’m seeing Florida and Ohio still 50-49 at Slate.

By: dsquared

dsquared — Tue, 02 Nov 2004 22:42:34 +0000

I think they’re both OK. Maybe put another update telling people, so we have a fighting chance of staying up ourselves?

By: Henry

Henry — Tue, 02 Nov 2004 22:42:03 +0000

4pm exit polls from Slate The 4 p.m. ET exit-poll numbers: Florida Kerry 52 Bush 48 Ohio Kerry 52 Bush 47 Michigan Kerry 51 Bush 48 Pennsylvania Kerry 58 Bush 42 Iowa Kerry 50 Bush 48 Wisconsin Kerry 53 Bush 47 Minnesota Kerry 57 Bush 42 New Hampshire Kerry 58 Bush 41 Maine Kerry 55 Bush 44 New Mexico Kerry 49 Bush 49 Nevada Kerry 48 Bush 49 Colorado Kerry 49 Bush 50 Arkansas Kerry 45 Bush 54

By: anand

anand — Tue, 02 Nov 2004 22:40:35 +0000

tradesports showing: bush bid 25 ask 28.5 last 28.5 change -24.5 kerry bid 72 ask 72.8 last 72.8 +25.8

By: dsquared

dsquared — Tue, 02 Nov 2004 22:38:06 +0000

TS back up to 67 Kerry. They’re responding slowly but reliably now. FUCK! Bush-Ohio is 38-39? That was like mid 50s when I left work today. The gambling community has spoken and no mistake. Christ, this is going to be disappointing when the bastard finally wins on a lawsuit. Remember, the market is a pain maximisation machine …

By: Brian Weatherson

Brian Weatherson — Tue, 02 Nov 2004 22:32:56 +0000

4.30ct (5.30et) Iowa numbers Symbol Bid Ask Last Low High Average DEM04_G52 0.268 0.297 0.298 0.130 0.950 0.220 DEM04_L52 0.372 0.414 0.414 0.301 0.423 0.346 REP04_L52 0.201 0.234 0.233 0.183 0.398 0.305 REP04_G52 0.059 0.098 0.057 0.033 0.163 0.108 Sorry for the lousy formatting – we can’t do tables in the CT comments.

By: Brian Weatherson

Brian Weatherson — Tue, 02 Nov 2004 22:30:15 +0000

Yeah, we really need to not be using the CT comments boards. I think Tradesports has settled down, but it’s hard to tell because the site has basically crashed. As has most of the internet.

By: dsquared

dsquared — Tue, 02 Nov 2004 22:28:35 +0000

Iowa appears to be responding if anything better than we are, so maybe we don’t need to do this for them any more.