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	<title>Comments on: Another pointy-headed post about the issues</title>
	<atom:link href="http://crookedtimber.org/2005/02/25/another-pointy-headed-post-about-the-issues/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/02/25/another-pointy-headed-post-about-the-issues/</link>
	<description>Out of the crooked timber of humanity, no straight thing was ever made</description>
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		<title>By: Kevin Donoghue</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/02/25/another-pointy-headed-post-about-the-issues/comment-page-1/#comment-63495</link>
		<dc:creator>Kevin Donoghue</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 30 Nov 1999 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/wp/2005/02/25/another-pointy-headed-post-about-the-issues/#comment-63495</guid>
		<description>Practically speaking it makes sense to let government do whatever government seems to do best. We can argue that case-by-case. But the collapse of the EMH leaves economic theory in a mess. What do we do, go back to trying to understand Keynes?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Practically speaking it makes sense to let government do whatever government seems to do best. We can argue that case-by-case. But the collapse of the <span class="caps">EMH</span> leaves economic theory in a mess. What do we do, go back to trying to understand Keynes?</p>
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		<title>By: Consigliere</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/02/25/another-pointy-headed-post-about-the-issues/comment-page-1/#comment-63496</link>
		<dc:creator>Consigliere</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 30 Nov 1999 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>EMH is not perfect, however it better explains the markets then anything else.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p><span class="caps">EMH</span> is not perfect, however it better explains the markets then anything else.</p>
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		<title>By: P O'Neill</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/02/25/another-pointy-headed-post-about-the-issues/comment-page-1/#comment-63497</link>
		<dc:creator>P O'Neill</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 30 Nov 1999 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>Your closing sentence leads to a related issue of the keenness of some governments for Public-Private Partnerships.  If the government having some private sector involvement can be justified on EMH failure grounds, then it&#039;s not immediately obvious why the government would actually want to share some projects along PPP lines.  There&#039;s a popular perception that the government gets suckered in these deals, in which the private partner gets the return in all the good states and dumps the losses onto the taxpayer when things go wrong.  Which sounds like the exact opposite of the investment strategy your logic leads to (and with which I agree).</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Your closing sentence leads to a related issue of the keenness of some governments for Public-Private Partnerships.  If the government having some private sector involvement can be justified on <span class="caps">EMH</span> failure grounds, then it&#8217;s not immediately obvious why the government would actually want to share some projects along <span class="caps">PPP</span> lines.  There&#8217;s a popular perception that the government gets suckered in these deals, in which the private partner gets the return in all the good states and dumps the losses onto the taxpayer when things go wrong.  Which sounds like the exact opposite of the investment strategy your logic leads to (and with which I agree).</p>
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		<title>By: Sebastian Holsclaw</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/02/25/another-pointy-headed-post-about-the-issues/comment-page-1/#comment-63498</link>
		<dc:creator>Sebastian Holsclaw</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 30 Nov 1999 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/wp/2005/02/25/another-pointy-headed-post-about-the-issues/#comment-63498</guid>
		<description>&quot;In any case, as public holdings of equity increase, the rate of return will fall and the rate of interest will rise, ultimately eliminating the equity premium. So we end up with the mixed economy we all know and (some of us) love.&quot;

Now I&#039;m not an economist, so it is quite possible I&#039;m missing something here but you seem to be assuming a rate of growth &#039;X&#039; which is the same no matter who is investing--whether the government or private investors.  In other words you are assuming that for $1,000 of investments you get growth X if it is $500 from the government and $500 from the private sphere and you also get X if it is $900 from the government and $100 from the private sphere.  But if we believe that the government is not as good at properly investing in the overall economy as the private sector (which many economists certainly do believe) it seems to me that dramatically increasing the government investment in equities would not only narrow the difference in returns by increasing the governmental return, it would also decrease the overall level of growth--leading to a mixed and weaker economy.  Depending on other factors that might be worth it, but it takes a lot of good factors to make even a small decrease in growth worthwhile.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>&#8220;In any case, as public holdings of equity increase, the rate of return will fall and the rate of interest will rise, ultimately eliminating the equity premium. So we end up with the mixed economy we all know and (some of us) love.&#8221;</p>

	<p>Now I&#8217;m not an economist, so it is quite possible I&#8217;m missing something here but you seem to be assuming a rate of growth &#8216;X&#8217; which is the same no matter who is investing&#8212;whether the government or private investors.  In other words you are assuming that for $1,000 of investments you get growth X if it is $500 from the government and $500 from the private sphere and you also get X if it is $900 from the government and $100 from the private sphere.  But if we believe that the government is not as good at properly investing in the overall economy as the private sector (which many economists certainly do believe) it seems to me that dramatically increasing the government investment in equities would not only narrow the difference in returns by increasing the governmental return, it would also decrease the overall level of growth&#8212;leading to a mixed and weaker economy.  Depending on other factors that might be worth it, but it takes a lot of good factors to make even a small decrease in growth worthwhile.</p>
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		<title>By: John Quiggin</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/02/25/another-pointy-headed-post-about-the-issues/comment-page-1/#comment-63499</link>
		<dc:creator>John Quiggin</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 30 Nov 1999 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/wp/2005/02/25/another-pointy-headed-post-about-the-issues/#comment-63499</guid>
		<description>I&#039;m not assuming equal performance Sebastian, which is why you get a mixed economy as the outcome. For most of the activities traditionally undertaken by the private sector, differences in the cost of capital are outweighed by the poorer performance of publicly-owned firms. In infrastructure industries, the reverse is commonly the case.

The test is whether a bond-financed government enterprise can operate profitably either in market competition or under regulatory prices that would yield normal returns to capital for private competitors.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>I&#8217;m not assuming equal performance Sebastian, which is why you get a mixed economy as the outcome. For most of the activities traditionally undertaken by the private sector, differences in the cost of capital are outweighed by the poorer performance of publicly-owned firms. In infrastructure industries, the reverse is commonly the case.</p>

	<p>The test is whether a bond-financed government enterprise can operate profitably either in market competition or under regulatory prices that would yield normal returns to capital for private competitors.</p>
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		<title>By: Sebastian Holsclaw</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/02/25/another-pointy-headed-post-about-the-issues/comment-page-1/#comment-63500</link>
		<dc:creator>Sebastian Holsclaw</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 30 Nov 1999 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/wp/2005/02/25/another-pointy-headed-post-about-the-issues/#comment-63500</guid>
		<description>&quot;The test is whether a bond-financed government enterprise can operate profitably either in market competition or under regulatory prices that would yield normal returns to capital for private competitors.&quot;

Hmm.  I&#039;m not sure I&#039;m understanding this sentence properly.  The test for what?  Government investment?  Let&#039;s say under your model the perfect amount of government investment is 30%.  I think you are trying to describe a method by which the investment amount gets to 30% and no more.  What stops it from going to 50% and being a drag on the economy?  (Actual percentages, clearly should be interpreted as pulled out of my ass).  The government businesses won&#039;t be as profitable at first, but surely the government will then create rules to favor its own investments.  This will allow the government entities to remain competitive but will seriously deform the market in ways that aren&#039;t good for overall growth.  I think you are saying there is a mechanism of incentives for stopping that from happening, but I can&#039;t figure out what it is.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>&#8220;The test is whether a bond-financed government enterprise can operate profitably either in market competition or under regulatory prices that would yield normal returns to capital for private competitors.&#8221;</p>

	<p>Hmm.  I&#8217;m not sure I&#8217;m understanding this sentence properly.  The test for what?  Government investment?  Let&#8217;s say under your model the perfect amount of government investment is 30%.  I think you are trying to describe a method by which the investment amount gets to 30% and no more.  What stops it from going to 50% and being a drag on the economy?  (Actual percentages, clearly should be interpreted as pulled out of my ass).  The government businesses won&#8217;t be as profitable at first, but surely the government will then create rules to favor its own investments.  This will allow the government entities to remain competitive but will seriously deform the market in ways that aren&#8217;t good for overall growth.  I think you are saying there is a mechanism of incentives for stopping that from happening, but I can&#8217;t figure out what it is.</p>
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		<title>By: John Quiggin</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/02/25/another-pointy-headed-post-about-the-issues/comment-page-1/#comment-63501</link>
		<dc:creator>John Quiggin</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 30 Nov 1999 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/wp/2005/02/25/another-pointy-headed-post-about-the-issues/#comment-63501</guid>
		<description>Two possible answers

1. If you are doing an external economic assessment you net out any benefits obtained when governments rig the rules in favour of their own enterprises.

2. If you&#039;re a government, you try to precommit by establishing independent regulators</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Two possible answers</p>

	<p>1. If you are doing an external economic assessment you net out any benefits obtained when governments rig the rules in favour of their own enterprises.</p>

	<p>2. If you&#8217;re a government, you try to precommit by establishing independent regulators</p>
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		<title>By: Tom G.</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/02/25/another-pointy-headed-post-about-the-issues/comment-page-1/#comment-63502</link>
		<dc:creator>Tom G.</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 30 Nov 1999 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>I&#039;m not sure I understand Sebastian&#039;s point if the government investment takes the form of a passive index (as opposed to say starting its own companies).  I see there could be problems as government holdings rise, but I don&#039;t see any reason to expect lower growth from the government holding a small % of US equities.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>I&#8217;m not sure I understand Sebastian&#8217;s point if the government investment takes the form of a passive index (as opposed to say starting its own companies).  I see there could be problems as government holdings rise, but I don&#8217;t see any reason to expect lower growth from the government holding a small % of US equities.</p>
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		<title>By: john c. halasz</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/02/25/another-pointy-headed-post-about-the-issues/comment-page-1/#comment-63503</link>
		<dc:creator>john c. halasz</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 30 Nov 1999 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>Sebastian&#039;s second comment also seems to miss the case of governments deforming the &quot;rules&quot; of the market to favor the private investment of its backers. It&#039;s also obvious that governments are dependent on the economy, whether public or private, for their tax revenues/budget constraints, so it&#039;s not as if there are no long-run incentives/constraints to their policy preferences/steering performances.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Sebastian&#8217;s second comment also seems to miss the case of governments deforming the &#8220;rules&#8221; of the market to favor the private investment of its backers. It&#8217;s also obvious that governments are dependent on the economy, whether public or private, for their tax revenues/budget constraints, so it&#8217;s not as if there are no long-run incentives/constraints to their policy preferences/steering performances.</p>
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		<title>By: Marcus Stanley</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/02/25/another-pointy-headed-post-about-the-issues/comment-page-1/#comment-63504</link>
		<dc:creator>Marcus Stanley</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 30 Nov 1999 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/wp/2005/02/25/another-pointy-headed-post-about-the-issues/#comment-63504</guid>
		<description>Well, yes, Sebastian, if you assume government is bad, then government is bad.  But there are many examples of public institutions that have immense control over the actions of private economic actors but do not really abuse that control for the gain of particular constituencies.  Prominent among them being the Federal Reserve.  It seems to me your argument really amounts to saying that limited government is never possible so long as government undertakes any economic activity at all.  Since if there is any mechanism for limiting government abuse of its economic powers you &quot;can&#039;t figure out what it is&quot;.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Well, yes, Sebastian, if you assume government is bad, then government is bad.  But there are many examples of public institutions that have immense control over the actions of private economic actors but do not really abuse that control for the gain of particular constituencies.  Prominent among them being the Federal Reserve.  It seems to me your argument really amounts to saying that limited government is never possible so long as government undertakes any economic activity at all.  Since if there is any mechanism for limiting government abuse of its economic powers you &#8220;can&#8217;t figure out what it is&#8221;.</p>
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		<title>By: Sebastian Holsclaw</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/02/25/another-pointy-headed-post-about-the-issues/comment-page-1/#comment-63505</link>
		<dc:creator>Sebastian Holsclaw</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 30 Nov 1999 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/wp/2005/02/25/another-pointy-headed-post-about-the-issues/#comment-63505</guid>
		<description>&quot;Prominent among them being the Federal Reserve. It seems to me your argument really amounts to saying that limited government is never possible so long as government undertakes any economic activity at all.&quot;

No, that isn&#039;t what I&#039;m suggesting at all.  The Federal Reserve does not exist to make money.  Or rather in a more literal sense it does, but not for profit.  Once you start setting up a system where government is in business, it is going to deform the rules to favor itself.  In a distantly related topic, see US communities with stoplight enforcement cameras.  They tend to be placed at intersections with short yellows, and sometimes the intersections shorten the yellows, to make more money on the automatic tickets.  The community safety answer to the problem of dangerous intersections would almost certainly be a combination of longer yellows and enforcement cameras.  But since the city doesn&#039;t make as much money that way, the longer yellow part of the equation doesn&#039;t play through the system.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>&#8220;Prominent among them being the Federal Reserve. It seems to me your argument really amounts to saying that limited government is never possible so long as government undertakes any economic activity at all.&#8221;</p>

	<p>No, that isn&#8217;t what I&#8217;m suggesting at all.  The Federal Reserve does not exist to make money.  Or rather in a more literal sense it does, but not for profit.  Once you start setting up a system where government is in business, it is going to deform the rules to favor itself.  In a distantly related topic, see US communities with stoplight enforcement cameras.  They tend to be placed at intersections with short yellows, and sometimes the intersections shorten the yellows, to make more money on the automatic tickets.  The community safety answer to the problem of dangerous intersections would almost certainly be a combination of longer yellows and enforcement cameras.  But since the city doesn&#8217;t make as much money that way, the longer yellow part of the equation doesn&#8217;t play through the system.</p>
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		<title>By: Cleve Blakemore</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/02/25/another-pointy-headed-post-about-the-issues/comment-page-1/#comment-63506</link>
		<dc:creator>Cleve Blakemore</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 30 Nov 1999 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>Hly cw, y gys r gy. w&#039;r tlking FLMING, with tfft strmrs.
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Hly cw, y gys r gy. w&#8217;r tlking <span class="caps">FLMING</span>, with tfft strmrs.</p>
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