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	<title>Comments on: Iran</title>
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	<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/02/25/iran/</link>
	<description>Out of the crooked timber of humanity, no straight thing was ever made</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Mon, 13 Feb 2012 03:14:53 +0000</lastBuildDate>
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		<title>By: george</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/02/25/iran/comment-page-1/#comment-63444</link>
		<dc:creator>george</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 30 Nov -0001 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/wp/2005/02/25/iran/#comment-63444</guid>
		<description>Thanks Ted, looks like a good read.  But I wouldn&#039;t be quite so cynical about this Administration&#039;s ability to manage this near-crisis.  For one thing, I don&#039;t know of anyone (neocon or not) who really advocates the use of force against Iran.  As these authors say, both all-out invasion and something more targeted carry more risks than potential benefits.  And as demonstrated in both Pakistan and Libya, the Bushies are willing to strike a deal with a less-than-perfect regime if there are no better alternatives.  The key difference between those two cases and North Korea (and Saddam&#039;s Iraq, and Iran up till now) is trust: if your adversary can&#039;t be trusted to follow through, even the best deal is DOA.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Thanks Ted, looks like a good read.  But I wouldn&#8217;t be quite so cynical about this Administration&#8217;s ability to manage this near-crisis.  For one thing, I don&#8217;t know of anyone (neocon or not) who really advocates the use of force against Iran.  As these authors say, both all-out invasion and something more targeted carry more risks than potential benefits.  And as demonstrated in both Pakistan and Libya, the Bushies are willing to strike a deal with a less-than-perfect regime if there are no better alternatives.  The key difference between those two cases and North Korea (and Saddam&#8217;s Iraq, and Iran up till now) is trust: if your adversary can&#8217;t be trusted to follow through, even the best deal is <span class="caps">DOA</span>.</p>
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		<title>By: nofundy</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/02/25/iran/comment-page-1/#comment-63445</link>
		<dc:creator>nofundy</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 30 Nov -0001 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/wp/2005/02/25/iran/#comment-63445</guid>
		<description>Ken Pollock NOT advocating invading a Middle Eastern Country whose first three letters are I-R-A?  

What has this world come to? :-)

(No, I won&#039;t let him live that down, ever.)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Ken Pollock <span class="caps">NOT</span> advocating invading a Middle Eastern Country whose first three letters are I-R-A?</p>

	<p>What has this world come to? :-)</p>

	<p>(No, I won&#8217;t let him live that down, ever.)</p>
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		<title>By: nofundy</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/02/25/iran/comment-page-1/#comment-63446</link>
		<dc:creator>nofundy</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 30 Nov -0001 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/wp/2005/02/25/iran/#comment-63446</guid>
		<description>Perhaps I should say at least one thing in light of my snark towards Ken.
You are no longer credible as an &quot;expert&quot; when you have to go around with &quot;sucker&quot; written on your forehead. I&#039;m no expert and even I saw throught that gambit Mr. Pollock.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Perhaps I should say at least one thing in light of my snark towards Ken.<br />
You are no longer credible as an &#8220;expert&#8221; when you have to go around with &#8220;sucker&#8221; written on your forehead. I&#8217;m no expert and even I saw throught that gambit Mr. Pollock.</p>
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		<title>By: jet</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/02/25/iran/comment-page-1/#comment-63447</link>
		<dc:creator>jet</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 30 Nov -0001 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/wp/2005/02/25/iran/#comment-63447</guid>
		<description>That was a good article, but I don&#039;t why the mullahs wouldn&#039;t do exactly what N. Korea did.

This sums it up.  

&quot;Although the mullahs are not as stubborn as North Korean leader Kim Jong Il continues to be--they would not knowingly allow three million fellow citizens to die of starvation just to preserve their nuclear program--they unquestionably are willing to tolerate considerable hardship to keep their nuclear hopes alive.&quot;

How do we know they aren&#039;t as crazy?  N. Korea wouldn&#039;t have had near the resources to devote to bomb building if it weren&#039;t for the 1990&#039;s world aid.  It would still be a big gamble with Iran as we might just help enable them to speed a covert N. Korean type operation under the noses of any framework.

But I don&#039;t see any better alternatives to Ray Takeyh&#039;s plan.  If you have to gamble, might as well gamble betting on human good.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>That was a good article, but I don&#8217;t why the mullahs wouldn&#8217;t do exactly what N. Korea did.</p>

	<p>This sums it up.</p>

	<p>&#8220;Although the mullahs are not as stubborn as North Korean leader Kim Jong Il continues to be&#8212;they would not knowingly allow three million fellow citizens to die of starvation just to preserve their nuclear program&#8212;they unquestionably are willing to tolerate considerable hardship to keep their nuclear hopes alive.&#8221;</p>

	<p>How do we know they aren&#8217;t as crazy?  N. Korea wouldn&#8217;t have had near the resources to devote to bomb building if it weren&#8217;t for the 1990&#8217;s world aid.  It would still be a big gamble with Iran as we might just help enable them to speed a covert N. Korean type operation under the noses of any framework.</p>

	<p>But I don&#8217;t see any better alternatives to Ray Takeyh&#8217;s plan.  If you have to gamble, might as well gamble betting on human good.</p>
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		<title>By: DeadHorseBeater</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/02/25/iran/comment-page-1/#comment-63448</link>
		<dc:creator>DeadHorseBeater</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 30 Nov -0001 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/wp/2005/02/25/iran/#comment-63448</guid>
		<description>Absent the lion lying down with the lamb, or a coup in Iran that eliminates not only the mullaocracy but also the strong nationalist feelings of more moderate Iranians, I don&#039;t think it&#039;s going to be possible to bribe or threaten Iran into giving up its weapons.  An anti-mullah coup which left any shred of the strong nationalist feeling in Iran intact would still leave a regime likely to pursue nuclear weapons.

I think it is nearly inevitable that Iran will become a nuclear power.  What we should aim for then is graceful accommodation of that, combined with reducing the harm of it as much as possible.

I think the time is ripe for a Grand Deal.

Iran gets a blind eye turned to its nuclear ambitions and the US restores normal diplomatic and economic relations with it.

Iran must drop its support for Hezbullah and other terrorist groups and become a constructive partner in a two-state solution in the IP conflict.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Absent the lion lying down with the lamb, or a coup in Iran that eliminates not only the mullaocracy but also the strong nationalist feelings of more moderate Iranians, I don&#8217;t think it&#8217;s going to be possible to bribe or threaten Iran into giving up its weapons.  An anti-mullah coup which left any shred of the strong nationalist feeling in Iran intact would still leave a regime likely to pursue nuclear weapons.</p>

	<p>I think it is nearly inevitable that Iran will become a nuclear power.  What we should aim for then is graceful accommodation of that, combined with reducing the harm of it as much as possible.</p>

	<p>I think the time is ripe for a Grand Deal.</p>

	<p>Iran gets a blind eye turned to its nuclear ambitions and the US restores normal diplomatic and economic relations with it.</p>

	<p>Iran must drop its support for Hezbullah and other terrorist groups and become a constructive partner in a two-state solution in the IP conflict.</p>
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		<title>By: KCinDC</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/02/25/iran/comment-page-1/#comment-63449</link>
		<dc:creator>KCinDC</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 30 Nov -0001 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/wp/2005/02/25/iran/#comment-63449</guid>
		<description>It may very well be unlikely that Bush would pursue the path, but I don&#039;t see why you think consistency should enter into calculations of the likelihood. This administration has never shown concern for consistency.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>It may very well be unlikely that Bush would pursue the path, but I don&#8217;t see why you think consistency should enter into calculations of the likelihood. This administration has never shown concern for consistency.</p>
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		<title>By: Sebastian Holsclaw</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/02/25/iran/comment-page-1/#comment-63450</link>
		<dc:creator>Sebastian Holsclaw</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 30 Nov -0001 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/wp/2005/02/25/iran/#comment-63450</guid>
		<description>&quot;I think the time is ripe for a Grand Deal.

Iran gets a blind eye turned to its nuclear ambitions and the US restores normal diplomatic and economic relations with it.

Iran must drop its support for Hezbullah and other terrorist groups and become a constructive partner in a two-state solution in the IP conflict.&quot;

Why in the world would Iran do this?  They can easily  get all of the above without dropping its support for terrorist groups or becoming a constructive party in the Israel conflict.  

You have already concluded they are going to be a nuclear power.  Europe has signalled its disinterest in long term sanctions, hell they want to engage in high-tech military trade with China, what are we bargaining with?  Under this scheme they have almost no incentive to do anything but pursue nuclear power, continue supporting terrorism, and continue pretending that nothing is happening.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>&#8220;I think the time is ripe for a Grand Deal.</p>

	<p>Iran gets a blind eye turned to its nuclear ambitions and the US restores normal diplomatic and economic relations with it.</p>

	<p>Iran must drop its support for Hezbullah and other terrorist groups and become a constructive partner in a two-state solution in the IP conflict.&#8221;</p>

	<p>Why in the world would Iran do this?  They can easily  get all of the above without dropping its support for terrorist groups or becoming a constructive party in the Israel conflict.</p>

	<p>You have already concluded they are going to be a nuclear power.  Europe has signalled its disinterest in long term sanctions, hell they want to engage in high-tech military trade with China, what are we bargaining with?  Under this scheme they have almost no incentive to do anything but pursue nuclear power, continue supporting terrorism, and continue pretending that nothing is happening.</p>
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		<title>By: Darren</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/02/25/iran/comment-page-1/#comment-63451</link>
		<dc:creator>Darren</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 30 Nov -0001 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/wp/2005/02/25/iran/#comment-63451</guid>
		<description>Nuclear weapons proliferation is a technological issue; not a political issue.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Nuclear weapons proliferation is a technological issue; not a political issue.</p>
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		<title>By: Ted Barlow</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/02/25/iran/comment-page-1/#comment-63452</link>
		<dc:creator>Ted Barlow</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 30 Nov -0001 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/wp/2005/02/25/iran/#comment-63452</guid>
		<description>Darren,

What do you mean?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Darren,</p>

	<p>What do you mean?</p>
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		<title>By: Jim Harrison</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/02/25/iran/comment-page-1/#comment-63453</link>
		<dc:creator>Jim Harrison</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 30 Nov -0001 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/wp/2005/02/25/iran/#comment-63453</guid>
		<description>It will be hard to convince the Iranians that it is not in their interest to develop nuclear weapons for the obvioius reason that it probably is in their interest. Which is why both the reformers and the Mullahs want the bomb. They understand that only nuclear weapons will preserve their sovereignty in the face of American unilateralism.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>It will be hard to convince the Iranians that it is not in their interest to develop nuclear weapons for the obvioius reason that it probably is in their interest. Which is why both the reformers and the Mullahs want the bomb. They understand that only nuclear weapons will preserve their sovereignty in the face of American unilateralism.</p>
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		<title>By: a different chris</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/02/25/iran/comment-page-1/#comment-63454</link>
		<dc:creator>a different chris</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 30 Nov -0001 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/wp/2005/02/25/iran/#comment-63454</guid>
		<description>&gt;they unquestionably are willing to tolerate considerable hardship to keep their nuclear hopes alive

Man that line makes me sick.  I AM questioning that.  It stinks of Muslims-are-less-than-human elitism.  Un-freaking-believable.

Now, I would believe that of the ChiComs, for sure, the Great Leap Foward wasn&#039;t that long ago.

In fact, looking at the very, very sorry record of humanity over the last millenium, who really would like to bet against Islam when it comes to humane treatment of, if not their fellow man in general at least their fellow Muslim?

You got the Judeo-Christian West, kicking off an almost constant bloodbath with the Spanish Inquisition and nicely bookending it with the meatgrinders of WWI and WWII, producing Hitler and the Holocaust, Stalin and the Soviet Union.  Persuing the middle we find France and England fighting a 100 Years War over what, I still haven&#039;t really figured out, Napolean freezing his soldiers to death in Russia, again for what serious purpose I really can&#039;t ascertain, and the US Civil War, a horror of men dying slowly from Mini-ball and bayonet induced gut-wounds. At least I know why they did that.

Meanwhile turning our History Channel to the Far East we find the Chinese fighting each other to keep a country of people with apparently little in common together (yes, they all look alike to us but they ain&#039;t) culminating with both the aforementioned Mao and a bloody clash with the Japanese.  Said Japanese deciding, like a favored David E. Kelley actor, to show up in both Far East and West ensembles by happily becoming a major player in WWII at the same time.

And the Middle East, er..., well they had their tribal spats.  But sad suicide bombers and knocking down a couple of really poorly-protected skyscrapers - hell, they&#039;re pretty late to the party I&#039;d say.

Props to Jim Harrison.  Did it ever occur to people that, when you look at the evidence, Islam quite likely isn&#039;t so much antagonistic to the West on differences of societial structure but quite logically scared to fucking death of us?  You can&#039;t exactly go out to the troops and say &quot;Hey, they gutted everybody else they came across like fish and here they come for us&quot; so you tell them we&#039;re evil and unclean and Allah
will help them overcome us, and even get yourself to believe it on most concious levels.

That would be a pretty human thing to do.  Oh, but they&#039;re not really human, sorry.  Good thing I don&#039;t have to physically report to a Re-education camp, LGF and Powerline can brainwash me at the flick of a URL.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>>they unquestionably are willing to tolerate considerable hardship to keep their nuclear hopes alive</p>

	<p>Man that line makes me sick.  <span class="caps">I AM</span> questioning that.  It stinks of Muslims-are-less-than-human elitism.  Un-freaking-believable.</p>

	<p>Now, I would believe that of the ChiComs, for sure, the Great Leap Foward wasn&#8217;t that long ago.</p>

	<p>In fact, looking at the very, very sorry record of humanity over the last millenium, who really would like to bet against Islam when it comes to humane treatment of, if not their fellow man in general at least their fellow Muslim?</p>

	<p>You got the Judeo-Christian West, kicking off an almost constant bloodbath with the Spanish Inquisition and nicely bookending it with the meatgrinders of <span class="caps">WWI</span> and <span class="caps">WWII</span>, producing Hitler and the Holocaust, Stalin and the Soviet Union.  Persuing the middle we find France and England fighting a 100 Years War over what, I still haven&#8217;t really figured out, Napolean freezing his soldiers to death in Russia, again for what serious purpose I really can&#8217;t ascertain, and the <span class="caps">US </span>Civil War, a horror of men dying slowly from Mini-ball and bayonet induced gut-wounds. At least I know why they did that.</p>

	<p>Meanwhile turning our History Channel to the Far East we find the Chinese fighting each other to keep a country of people with apparently little in common together (yes, they all look alike to us but they ain&#8217;t) culminating with both the aforementioned Mao and a bloody clash with the Japanese.  Said Japanese deciding, like a favored David E. Kelley actor, to show up in both Far East and West ensembles by happily becoming a major player in <span class="caps">WWII</span> at the same time.</p>

	<p>And the Middle East, er&#8230;, well they had their tribal spats.  But sad suicide bombers and knocking down a couple of really poorly-protected skyscrapers &#8211; hell, they&#8217;re pretty late to the party I&#8217;d say.</p>

	<p>Props to Jim Harrison.  Did it ever occur to people that, when you look at the evidence, Islam quite likely isn&#8217;t so much antagonistic to the West on differences of societial structure but quite logically scared to fucking death of us?  You can&#8217;t exactly go out to the troops and say &#8220;Hey, they gutted everybody else they came across like fish and here they come for us&#8221; so you tell them we&#8217;re evil and unclean and Allah<br />
will help them overcome us, and even get yourself to believe it on most concious levels.</p>

	<p>That would be a pretty human thing to do.  Oh, but they&#8217;re not really human, sorry.  Good thing I don&#8217;t have to physically report to a Re-education camp, <span class="caps">LGF</span> and Powerline can brainwash me at the flick of a <span class="caps">URL</span>.</p>
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		<title>By: Ajax Bucky</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/02/25/iran/comment-page-1/#comment-63455</link>
		<dc:creator>Ajax Bucky</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 30 Nov -0001 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/wp/2005/02/25/iran/#comment-63455</guid>
		<description>Scott Ritter&#039;s going around saying &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.axisoflogic.com/artman/publish/article_15888.shtml&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Bush has already signed off&lt;/a&gt; on a June aerial invasion/bombing of &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.iranmania.com/News/ArticleView/Default.asp?NewsCode=29820&amp;NewsKind=Current%20Affairs&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Iran&lt;/a&gt;.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Scott Ritter&#8217;s going around saying <a href="http://www.axisoflogic.com/artman/publish/article_15888.shtml" rel="nofollow">Bush has already signed off</a> on a June aerial invasion/bombing of <a href="http://www.iranmania.com/News/ArticleView/Default.asp?NewsCode=29820&#038;NewsKind=Current%20Affairs" rel="nofollow">Iran</a>.</p>
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		<title>By: rea</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/02/25/iran/comment-page-1/#comment-63456</link>
		<dc:creator>rea</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 30 Nov -0001 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/wp/2005/02/25/iran/#comment-63456</guid>
		<description>&quot;Nuclear weapons proliferation is a technological issue; not a political issue.&quot;

&quot;Darren, What do you mean?&quot;

Well I won&#039;t venture to speak for Darren, but we are now 60 years after the first nuclear explosion and the technology is no longer a mystery.  Everyone knows the basics of how to build a nuclear weapon.  Anyone with the capital and sufficient motiviation will get one, sooner or later.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>&#8220;Nuclear weapons proliferation is a technological issue; not a political issue.&#8221;</p>

	<p>&#8220;Darren, What do you mean?&#8221;</p>

	<p>Well I won&#8217;t venture to speak for Darren, but we are now 60 years after the first nuclear explosion and the technology is no longer a mystery.  Everyone knows the basics of how to build a nuclear weapon.  Anyone with the capital and sufficient motiviation will get one, sooner or later.</p>
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		<title>By: Fab</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/02/25/iran/comment-page-1/#comment-63457</link>
		<dc:creator>Fab</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 30 Nov -0001 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/wp/2005/02/25/iran/#comment-63457</guid>
		<description>Sanctions would be counterproductive in the case of Iran and George Bush would not be willing to give economic incentives to a regime he is intent on changing, regardless of nuclear ambitions.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Sanctions would be counterproductive in the case of Iran and George Bush would not be willing to give economic incentives to a regime he is intent on changing, regardless of nuclear ambitions.</p>
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		<title>By: kasei</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/02/25/iran/comment-page-1/#comment-63458</link>
		<dc:creator>kasei</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 30 Nov -0001 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/wp/2005/02/25/iran/#comment-63458</guid>
		<description>It doesn&#039;t seem all that surprising to me that Iran is unwilling to give up its nuclear ambitions when asked to by a country with 10,000+ warheads. Plus there&#039;s Israel not too far away - if I were an Iranian leader, I&#039;d be testing my nukes right now. The US will not be able to convince anyone to renounce violence unless it makes concrete steps to do so itself, and persuade its allies to do likewise.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>It doesn&#8217;t seem all that surprising to me that Iran is unwilling to give up its nuclear ambitions when asked to by a country with 10,000+ warheads. Plus there&#8217;s Israel not too far away &#8211; if I were an Iranian leader, I&#8217;d be testing my nukes right now. The US will not be able to convince anyone to renounce violence unless it makes concrete steps to do so itself, and persuade its allies to do likewise.</p>
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