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	<title>Comments on: Deterrence and the Death Penalty</title>
	<atom:link href="http://crookedtimber.org/2005/03/24/deterrence-and-the-death-penalty/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/03/24/deterrence-and-the-death-penalty/</link>
	<description>Out of the crooked timber of humanity, no straight thing was ever made</description>
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		<title>By: JStat</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/03/24/deterrence-and-the-death-penalty/comment-page-1/#comment-65347</link>
		<dc:creator>JStat</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 30 Mar 2005 09:26:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2005/03/24/deterrence-and-the-death-penalty/#comment-65347</guid>
		<description>As usual , we see the incorporation numbers into ideology to give it the trappings of objectivity. Assuming that this is true there are many questions still to be answered. First why is that that on average , the south as a region has much higher violent crime rates than the north and also has more executions? What factors are possible determinants of murders and if these are known were they controlled for or dealt with in some manner? Throwing murder rates and presence of absence of death penality into some time series or logistic regression analysis may show some relationship, but technically speaking I can generate a random binomial and normal variable and I will get a correlation and sometimes a significant coefficient. What is the strength and direction of the relationship? And last, and most importantly, why is the US not compared with other economically developed countries that do not have the death penalty? Following  Shepherd&#039;s logic, the death penalty is some kind of universal deterrent and thus her analysis should hold in all &quot;similar&quot; countries, which I&#039;m sure it does not. But what does that imply? Does the death penalty &quot;deter crime&quot; only in the US and if so why? Finally, I am a statistician and fully appreciate statistics and probability theory, but to use non-causal and theoretical models based on &quot;lives saved&quot; to determine if someone should live or die is not only poor judgement but shows a lack of nuanced understanding of statistics and the possible amount of information that can be derived from it.  </description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>As usual , we see the incorporation numbers into ideology to give it the trappings of objectivity. Assuming that this is true there are many questions still to be answered. First why is that that on average , the south as a region has much higher violent crime rates than the north and also has more executions? What factors are possible determinants of murders and if these are known were they controlled for or dealt with in some manner? Throwing murder rates and presence of absence of death penality into some time series or logistic regression analysis may show some relationship, but technically speaking I can generate a random binomial and normal variable and I will get a correlation and sometimes a significant coefficient. What is the strength and direction of the relationship? And last, and most importantly, why is the US not compared with other economically developed countries that do not have the death penalty? Following  Shepherd&#8217;s logic, the death penalty is some kind of universal deterrent and thus her analysis should hold in all &#8220;similar&#8221; countries, which I&#8217;m sure it does not. But what does that imply? Does the death penalty &#8220;deter crime&#8221; only in the US and if so why? Finally, I am a statistician and fully appreciate statistics and probability theory, but to use non-causal and theoretical models based on &#8220;lives saved&#8221; to determine if someone should live or die is not only poor judgement but shows a lack of nuanced understanding of statistics and the possible amount of information that can be derived from it.</p>
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		<title>By: Phillip J. Birmingham</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/03/24/deterrence-and-the-death-penalty/comment-page-1/#comment-64703</link>
		<dc:creator>Phillip J. Birmingham</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 25 Mar 2005 18:25:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2005/03/24/deterrence-and-the-death-penalty/#comment-64703</guid>
		<description>&lt;em&gt;Do you have a link to excutuion data?&lt;/em&gt;

Unfortunately, no.  I know a few data points -- 119 executions in Texas during the Bush regime, none during the &lt;em&gt;Furman&lt;/em&gt; period of 1972-76, but not much more.

To be honest, I didn&#039;t look too hard.  I don&#039;t have the sociological chops to answer questions about things like lag between cause and effect, so I didn&#039;t think I&#039;d be able to make use of it to add more light than heat.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p><em>Do you have a link to excutuion data?</em></p>

	<p>Unfortunately, no.  I know a few data points&#8212;119 executions in Texas during the Bush regime, none during the <em>Furman</em> period of 1972-76, but not much more.</p>

	<p>To be honest, I didn&#8217;t look too hard.  I don&#8217;t have the sociological chops to answer questions about things like lag between cause and effect, so I didn&#8217;t think I&#8217;d be able to make use of it to add more light than heat.</p>
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		<title>By: spencer</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/03/24/deterrence-and-the-death-penalty/comment-page-1/#comment-64680</link>
		<dc:creator>spencer</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 25 Mar 2005 17:01:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2005/03/24/deterrence-and-the-death-penalty/#comment-64680</guid>
		<description>phillip Birmingham -- thanks for the link to crime data .

Do you have a link to excutuion data?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>phillip Birmingham&#8212;thanks for the link to crime data .</p>

	<p>Do you have a link to excutuion data?</p>
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		<title>By: Katherine</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/03/24/deterrence-and-the-death-penalty/comment-page-1/#comment-64632</link>
		<dc:creator>Katherine</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 25 Mar 2005 07:41:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2005/03/24/deterrence-and-the-death-penalty/#comment-64632</guid>
		<description>&quot;“you can’t commit the same act you’re supposedly condemning. You don’t condemn torture by torturing, rape by raping, or killing the innocent by killing the innocent.”

Wouldn’t that rule out punishment altogether? The reason and actor are as important as the nature of action. If not, what separates fines and taxes from theft, imprisonment from kidnapping, etc.&quot;

The reason and actor and legal sanction matter, but torture and torture and rape is rape. You can&#039;t torture or rape to incapacitate or in self-defense or to pay for shared social services. It&#039;s pain for the sake of pain.
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>&#8220;&#8220;you can&#8217;t commit the same act you&#8217;re supposedly condemning. You don&#8217;t condemn torture by torturing, rape by raping, or killing the innocent by killing the innocent.&#8221;</p>

	<p>Wouldn&#8217;t that rule out punishment altogether? The reason and actor are as important as the nature of action. If not, what separates fines and taxes from theft, imprisonment from kidnapping, etc.&#8221;</p>

	<p>The reason and actor and legal sanction matter, but torture and torture and rape is rape. You can&#8217;t torture or rape to incapacitate or in self-defense or to pay for shared social services. It&#8217;s pain for the sake of pain.</p>
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		<title>By: Phillip J. Birmingham</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/03/24/deterrence-and-the-death-penalty/comment-page-1/#comment-64615</link>
		<dc:creator>Phillip J. Birmingham</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 25 Mar 2005 04:15:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2005/03/24/deterrence-and-the-death-penalty/#comment-64615</guid>
		<description>&lt;em&gt;Isn’t that why you compare murder rates over time? And isn’t there a period where the Supreme Court outlawed the death penalty to help out as a pseudo-control?&lt;/em&gt;

Okay, murder rate in Texas, 1972 to 1976
12.4,12.8,13.7,13.4,12.2

1977 to 1981
13.3,14.2,16.7,16.9,16.6

From 1995 on, when Dubya cranked it up to 11, the numbers were lower:
9.0,7.7,6.8,6.8,6.1,5.9

Sadly, each of these years, W-less New York suffered under these crushing rates:
8.5,7.4,6.0,5.1,5.0,5.0

Throughout the other periods I&#039;ve shown, NY has had generally lower murder rates.1  When Texas wasn&#039;t killing anybody, NY was lower.  When Texas was half-heartedly frying a few, NY had a lower rate.  When Texas was enthusiastically needling people, its Governor cackling all the while, NY still had a lower murder rate.  Maybe it&#039;s something in the water, but it sure doesn&#039;t seem to have anything to do with how many people Texas has snuffed.

Face it, the Texas Death Machine is the criminological answer to the magnetic copper anti-arthritis bracelet.

&lt;em&gt;1. I think, but did not take the time to compare year-by-year, that it is actually lower eand every year, but I do not assert so.  Check for yourself at http://www.disastercenter.com/crime/nycrime.htm if you like.  Links to other states can be found at bottom.

&lt;/em&gt;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p><em>Isn&#8217;t that why you compare murder rates over time? And isn&#8217;t there a period where the Supreme Court outlawed the death penalty to help out as a pseudo-control?</em></p>

	<p>Okay, murder rate in Texas, 1972 to 1976<br />
12.4,12.8,13.7,13.4,12.2</p>

	<p>1977 to 1981<br />
13.3,14.2,16.7,16.9,16.6</p>

	<p>From 1995 on, when Dubya cranked it up to 11, the numbers were lower:<br />
9.0,7.7,6.8,6.8,6.1,5.9</p>

	<p>Sadly, each of these years, W-less New York suffered under these crushing rates:<br />
8.5,7.4,6.0,5.1,5.0,5.0</p>

	<p>Throughout the other periods I&#8217;ve shown, NY has had generally lower murder rates.1  When Texas wasn&#8217;t killing anybody, NY was lower.  When Texas was half-heartedly frying a few, NY had a lower rate.  When Texas was enthusiastically needling people, its Governor cackling all the while, NY still had a lower murder rate.  Maybe it&#8217;s something in the water, but it sure doesn&#8217;t seem to have anything to do with how many people Texas has snuffed.</p>

	<p>Face it, the Texas Death Machine is the criminological answer to the magnetic copper anti-arthritis bracelet.</p>

	<p><em>1. I think, but did not take the time to compare year-by-year, that it is actually lower eand every year, but I do not assert so.  Check for yourself at <a href="http://www.disastercenter.com/crime/nycrime.htm" rel="nofollow">http://www.disastercenter.com/crime/nycrime.htm</a> if you like.  Links to other states can be found at bottom.</em></p>

	<p></p>
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		<title>By: Sebastian Holsclaw</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/03/24/deterrence-and-the-death-penalty/comment-page-1/#comment-64611</link>
		<dc:creator>Sebastian Holsclaw</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 25 Mar 2005 03:38:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2005/03/24/deterrence-and-the-death-penalty/#comment-64611</guid>
		<description>&quot;No, but you’d think that if the death sentence were all that effective a deterrent, Texas would have a much lower murder rate than New York, since it has the death machine cranked up to 11. Instead, New York pegged a 5.0, and Texas, 5.9.&quot;

Isn&#039;t that why you compare murder rates over time?  And isn&#039;t there a period where the Supreme Court outlawed the death penalty to help out as a pseudo-control?  </description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>&#8220;No, but you&#8217;d think that if the death sentence were all that effective a deterrent, Texas would have a much lower murder rate than New York, since it has the death machine cranked up to 11. Instead, New York pegged a 5.0, and Texas, 5.9.&#8221;</p>

	<p>Isn&#8217;t that why you compare murder rates over time?  And isn&#8217;t there a period where the Supreme Court outlawed the death penalty to help out as a pseudo-control?</p>
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		<title>By: Katherine</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/03/24/deterrence-and-the-death-penalty/comment-page-1/#comment-64596</link>
		<dc:creator>Katherine</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 25 Mar 2005 02:06:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2005/03/24/deterrence-and-the-death-penalty/#comment-64596</guid>
		<description>has anyone tried comparing the rates of murder to the rates of other violent crime?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>has anyone tried comparing the rates of murder to the rates of other violent crime?</p>
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		<title>By: MattXIV</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/03/24/deterrence-and-the-death-penalty/comment-page-1/#comment-64591</link>
		<dc:creator>MattXIV</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 25 Mar 2005 01:36:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2005/03/24/deterrence-and-the-death-penalty/#comment-64591</guid>
		<description>cathrine,

&quot;you can’t commit the same act you’re supposedly condemning. You don’t condemn torture by torturing, rape by raping, or killing the innocent by killing the innocent.&quot;

Wouldn&#039;t that rule out punishment altogether?  The reason and actor are as important as the nature of action.  If not, what separates fines and taxes from theft, imprisonment from kidnapping, etc.

On a somewhat related point, I wonder if the death penality itself is even the main source of violence in the law-enforcement process.  I&#039;d guess that the probability of being shot by the police in the process of committing a crime seems much higher than the probability of being formally executed by the state - see &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.commondreams.org/cgi-bin/print.cgi?file=/headlines01/0428-04.htm&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt; here&lt;/a&gt; to get a quick look at the relative numbers.
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>cathrine,</p>

	<p>&#8220;you can&#8217;t commit the same act you&#8217;re supposedly condemning. You don&#8217;t condemn torture by torturing, rape by raping, or killing the innocent by killing the innocent.&#8221;</p>

	<p>Wouldn&#8217;t that rule out punishment altogether?  The reason and actor are as important as the nature of action.  If not, what separates fines and taxes from theft, imprisonment from kidnapping, etc.</p>

	<p>On a somewhat related point, I wonder if the death penality itself is even the main source of violence in the law-enforcement process.  I&#8217;d guess that the probability of being shot by the police in the process of committing a crime seems much higher than the probability of being formally executed by the state &#8211; see <a href="http://www.commondreams.org/cgi-bin/print.cgi?file=/headlines01/0428-04.htm" rel="nofollow"> here</a> to get a quick look at the relative numbers.</p>
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		<title>By: Michael Cross</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/03/24/deterrence-and-the-death-penalty/comment-page-1/#comment-64589</link>
		<dc:creator>Michael Cross</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 25 Mar 2005 01:08:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2005/03/24/deterrence-and-the-death-penalty/#comment-64589</guid>
		<description>Canada had a much lower murder rate than the US to start with. That murder rate has dropped steadily since capital punishment was abolished more than 3 decades ago (although there had not been an execution in Canada, even when capital punishment was legal, since 1962). Canada is a distinct society but one that shares popular culture, media and economic structures with the United States. It would seem, intuitively, that social, economic and cultural developments do much more to explain rates of murder than the presence or absence of capital punishment.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Canada had a much lower murder rate than the US to start with. That murder rate has dropped steadily since capital punishment was abolished more than 3 decades ago (although there had not been an execution in Canada, even when capital punishment was legal, since 1962). Canada is a distinct society but one that shares popular culture, media and economic structures with the United States. It would seem, intuitively, that social, economic and cultural developments do much more to explain rates of murder than the presence or absence of capital punishment.</p>
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		<title>By: Phillip J. Birmingham</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/03/24/deterrence-and-the-death-penalty/comment-page-1/#comment-64588</link>
		<dc:creator>Phillip J. Birmingham</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 25 Mar 2005 01:06:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2005/03/24/deterrence-and-the-death-penalty/#comment-64588</guid>
		<description>&lt;em&gt;Do you believe that everywhere in the world has the same murder rate if you factor out the detterent effect of capital punishment? Everywhere in the US?&lt;/em&gt;

No, but you&#039;d think that if the death sentence were all that effective a deterrent, Texas would have a much lower murder rate than New York, since it has the death machine cranked up to 11.  Instead, New York pegged a 5.0, and Texas, 5.9.

An argument that boils down to, effectively, &quot;imagine how much worse my cancer would be if I weren&#039;t taking all this Laetrile,&quot; is a pretty weak one.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p><em>Do you believe that everywhere in the world has the same murder rate if you factor out the detterent effect of capital punishment? Everywhere in the US?</em></p>

	<p>No, but you&#8217;d think that if the death sentence were all that effective a deterrent, Texas would have a much lower murder rate than New York, since it has the death machine cranked up to 11.  Instead, New York pegged a 5.0, and Texas, 5.9.</p>

	<p>An argument that boils down to, effectively, &#8220;imagine how much worse my cancer would be if I weren&#8217;t taking all this Laetrile,&#8221; is a pretty weak one.</p>
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		<title>By: Crooked Timber  &#187;   &#187; Violent Societies</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/03/24/deterrence-and-the-death-penalty/comment-page-1/#comment-64567</link>
		<dc:creator>Crooked Timber  &#187;   &#187; Violent Societies</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 24 Mar 2005 22:15:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2005/03/24/deterrence-and-the-death-penalty/#comment-64567</guid>
		<description>[...]      		 			Violent Societies 			Posted by Kieran Healy 	 			 					While thinking about the deterrent effect of the death penalty I wondered about cross-natio [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>[...]       Violent Societies Posted by Kieran Healy   While thinking about the deterrent effect of the death penalty I wondered about cross-natio [...]</p>
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		<title>By: Sebastian Holsclaw</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/03/24/deterrence-and-the-death-penalty/comment-page-1/#comment-64565</link>
		<dc:creator>Sebastian Holsclaw</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 24 Mar 2005 21:45:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2005/03/24/deterrence-and-the-death-penalty/#comment-64565</guid>
		<description>&quot;If you believe the death penalty had a detertent impact you have to explain why it does not work in Texas.&quot;

Do you believe that everywhere in the world has the same murder rate if you factor out the detterent effect of capital punishment?  Everywhere in the US?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>&#8220;If you believe the death penalty had a detertent impact you have to explain why it does not work in Texas.&#8221;</p>

	<p>Do you believe that everywhere in the world has the same murder rate if you factor out the detterent effect of capital punishment?  Everywhere in the US?</p>
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		<title>By: spencer</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/03/24/deterrence-and-the-death-penalty/comment-page-1/#comment-64557</link>
		<dc:creator>spencer</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 24 Mar 2005 21:11:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2005/03/24/deterrence-and-the-death-penalty/#comment-64557</guid>
		<description>If you read the referenced Berk &amp; Goertzel papers it becomes obvious that this is a classic case of someone torturing the data until it confesses to a crime it did not commit.

I will not accept any paper or study on the deterent impact of the death penalty that does not explain why Texas has such a high murder rate and excution rate.  If you believe the death penalty had a detertent impact you have to explain why it does not work in Texas. </description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>If you read the referenced Berk &#038; Goertzel papers it becomes obvious that this is a classic case of someone torturing the data until it confesses to a crime it did not commit.</p>

	<p>I will not accept any paper or study on the deterent impact of the death penalty that does not explain why Texas has such a high murder rate and excution rate.  If you believe the death penalty had a detertent impact you have to explain why it does not work in Texas.</p>
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		<title>By: Sebastian Holsclaw</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/03/24/deterrence-and-the-death-penalty/comment-page-1/#comment-64541</link>
		<dc:creator>Sebastian Holsclaw</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 24 Mar 2005 19:49:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2005/03/24/deterrence-and-the-death-penalty/#comment-64541</guid>
		<description>Btw, I&#039;m not on Volokh&#039;s side about torturing child molestors.  I just think trying to reject his argument by saying that retributive justice isn&#039;t a large factor in the criminal justice system (as attempted in the earlier threads on the topic) is both false and dangerous.  </description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Btw, I&#8217;m not on Volokh&#8217;s side about torturing child molestors.  I just think trying to reject his argument by saying that retributive justice isn&#8217;t a large factor in the criminal justice system (as attempted in the earlier threads on the topic) is both false and dangerous.</p>
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		<title>By: Katherine</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/03/24/deterrence-and-the-death-penalty/comment-page-1/#comment-64539</link>
		<dc:creator>Katherine</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 24 Mar 2005 19:44:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2005/03/24/deterrence-and-the-death-penalty/#comment-64539</guid>
		<description>remember my whole thing about how confusing original sense and original application led conservatives to wrongly argue that both were binding and liberals to wrongly argue that neither is?

I would say the same thing is going on with confusing justified retribution &amp; vengeance. 

And, actually, with confusing euthanasia &amp; assisted suicide with the right to refuse medical treatment.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>remember my whole thing about how confusing original sense and original application led conservatives to wrongly argue that both were binding and liberals to wrongly argue that neither is?</p>

	<p>I would say the same thing is going on with confusing justified retribution &#038; vengeance.</p>

	<p>And, actually, with confusing euthanasia &#038; assisted suicide with the right to refuse medical treatment.</p>
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