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	<title>Comments on: Violent Societies</title>
	<atom:link href="http://crookedtimber.org/2005/03/24/violent-societies/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/03/24/violent-societies/</link>
	<description>Out of the crooked timber of humanity, no straight thing was ever made</description>
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		<title>By: Barry</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/03/24/violent-societies/comment-page-1/#comment-64831</link>
		<dc:creator>Barry</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 26 Mar 2005 22:50:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2005/03/24/violent-societies/#comment-64831</guid>
		<description>Truer words were never spoken.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Truer words were never spoken.</p>
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		<title>By: bellatrys</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/03/24/violent-societies/comment-page-1/#comment-64807</link>
		<dc:creator>bellatrys</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 26 Mar 2005 18:46:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2005/03/24/violent-societies/#comment-64807</guid>
		<description>Barry, those don&#039;t count, because we&#039;re the Good Guys™.

Also the ones that we outsourced don&#039;t count either. If the corporate media doesn&#039;t report it, Joe Smoe doesn&#039;t know about it, and it didn&#039;t happen.

Welcome to Oceania.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Barry, those don&#8217;t count, because we&#8217;re the Good Guys&#8482;.</p>

	<p>Also the ones that we outsourced don&#8217;t count either. If the corporate media doesn&#8217;t report it, Joe Smoe doesn&#8217;t know about it, and it didn&#8217;t happen.</p>

	<p>Welcome to Oceania.</p>
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	<item>
		<title>By: Barry</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/03/24/violent-societies/comment-page-1/#comment-64799</link>
		<dc:creator>Barry</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 26 Mar 2005 16:18:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2005/03/24/violent-societies/#comment-64799</guid>
		<description>Brett:

Me:  “Of course, doing the same for the US might increase figures a bit.”

Brett:
&quot;Only if you go back to the Civil war, Barry. And WE don’t seem to have one of those every few decades.&quot;

Brett, how many people did the US kill in the 20th century?  </description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Brett:</p>

	<p>Me:  &#8220;Of course, doing the same for the US might increase figures a bit.&#8221;</p>

	<p>Brett:<br />
&#8220;Only if you go back to the Civil war, Barry. And WE don&#8217;t seem to have one of those every few decades.&#8221;</p>

	<p>Brett, how many people did the US kill in the 20th century?</p>
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		<title>By: Raimo</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/03/24/violent-societies/comment-page-1/#comment-64788</link>
		<dc:creator>Raimo</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 26 Mar 2005 10:41:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2005/03/24/violent-societies/#comment-64788</guid>
		<description>&quot;So, what’s up with Finland? Is it the saunas? The torment of their notoriously difficult, non-Indo-European language? The long dark winters?&quot;

The murder rate goes UP in summer, so maybe heat has something to do with it, Jim.

I don&#039;t know why our rate is so high compared with say, Sweden, but I think I can explain the zig-zags: although the rate is high, the actual number of murders is quite small, about 130 per year. So you only need a couple of multiple murders to produce a spike in the chart.

And unfortunately, we do sometimes get such multiple murders. A typical case would be when a drunken husband shoots his family (and then himself). 

And fyi, the language is no problem - I could speak it when I was three!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>&#8220;So, what&#8217;s up with Finland? Is it the saunas? The torment of their notoriously difficult, non-Indo-European language? The long dark winters?&#8221;</p>

	<p>The murder rate goes UP in summer, so maybe heat has something to do with it, Jim.</p>

	<p>I don&#8217;t know why our rate is so high compared with say, Sweden, but I think I can explain the zig-zags: although the rate is high, the actual number of murders is quite small, about 130 per year. So you only need a couple of multiple murders to produce a spike in the chart.</p>

	<p>And unfortunately, we do sometimes get such multiple murders. A typical case would be when a drunken husband shoots his family (and then himself).</p>

	<p>And fyi, the language is no problem &#8211; I could speak it when I was three!</p>
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		<title>By: BadTux</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/03/24/violent-societies/comment-page-1/#comment-64785</link>
		<dc:creator>BadTux</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 26 Mar 2005 06:16:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2005/03/24/violent-societies/#comment-64785</guid>
		<description>We actually have data on the deterrant effect of the death penalty. When the death penalty was outlawed, murder rates... well, they kept increasing at the same rate as would be predicted considering that the Baby Boomers were coming of age (murder rates closely track the size of the age 17-35 male cohort). When the death penalty was re-instated, murder rates... well, they kept decreasing at the same rate as would be predicted considering that the Baby Boomers were aging past the age 17-35 range where most murderers come from and thus the size of that age 17-35 male cohort was decreasing relative to the U.S. population, and furthermore, THEY DECREASED AT THE SAME RATE IN THE STATES WHERE THE DEATH PENALTY REMAINED BANNED! I.e., when, for example, Texas re-instated the death penalty, it had the same effect as when Massachusetts did NOT re-instate the death penalty -- murder rates declined in both states at the same rate (but Texas has a far higher BASE rate, as do most states with the death penalty -- most death penalty states have far more murders per 100,000 population than in states where the death penalty is outlawed). 

I will try to get a cite to you on this one, I read about this in _The Sociology of Crime_, a sociology textbook, and that book is packed away in a 10x10 storage locker right now along with about 10,000 other books (uncatalogued, alas) so it may be easier for me to just go check it out at the university library (sigh!). But one thing that was clear from looking at their nice pretty graphs of murder rates vs. cohort size, murder rates, etc. was that a condom has more deterrant value as the death penalty when it comes to murder. Specifically, use of a condom 18 years prior. Further data regarding the cause of murder showed why this was so. A very small percentage of murders (under 5%) were premeditated. Most murders were &quot;heat of the moment&quot; type murders that occurred during an argument, while intoxicated, during a barroom brawl, or otherwise in situations where the murderer acted impulsively and then, only AFTER he&#039;d already killed the person, had that &quot;oh shit&quot; moment: &quot;Oh shit, I could get the death penalty for this!&quot;. Which is a few seconds too late to do any good for the murder rate :-(.

- Badtux the Sociology Penguin
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>We actually have data on the deterrant effect of the death penalty. When the death penalty was outlawed, murder rates&#8230; well, they kept increasing at the same rate as would be predicted considering that the Baby Boomers were coming of age (murder rates closely track the size of the age 17-35 male cohort). When the death penalty was re-instated, murder rates&#8230; well, they kept decreasing at the same rate as would be predicted considering that the Baby Boomers were aging past the age 17-35 range where most murderers come from and thus the size of that age 17-35 male cohort was decreasing relative to the U.S. population, and furthermore, <span class="caps">THEY DECREASED AT THE SAME RATE IN THE STATES WHERE THE DEATH PENALTY REMAINED BANNED</span>! I.e., when, for example, Texas re-instated the death penalty, it had the same effect as when Massachusetts did <span class="caps">NOT</span> re-instate the death penalty&#8212;murder rates declined in both states at the same rate (but Texas has a far higher <span class="caps">BASE</span> rate, as do most states with the death penalty&#8212;most death penalty states have far more murders per 100,000 population than in states where the death penalty is outlawed).</p>

	<p>I will try to get a cite to you on this one, I read about this in <em>The Sociology of Crime</em>, a sociology textbook, and that book is packed away in a 10&#215;10 storage locker right now along with about 10,000 other books (uncatalogued, alas) so it may be easier for me to just go check it out at the university library (sigh!). But one thing that was clear from looking at their nice pretty graphs of murder rates vs. cohort size, murder rates, etc. was that a condom has more deterrant value as the death penalty when it comes to murder. Specifically, use of a condom 18 years prior. Further data regarding the cause of murder showed why this was so. A very small percentage of murders (under 5%) were premeditated. Most murders were &#8220;heat of the moment&#8221; type murders that occurred during an argument, while intoxicated, during a barroom brawl, or otherwise in situations where the murderer acted impulsively and then, only <span class="caps">AFTER</span> he&#8217;d already killed the person, had that &#8220;oh shit&#8221; moment: &#8220;Oh shit, I could get the death penalty for this!&#8221;. Which is a few seconds too late to do any good for the murder rate :-(.</p>
 &#8211; Badtux the Sociology Penguin
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		<title>By: Brett Bellmore</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/03/24/violent-societies/comment-page-1/#comment-64777</link>
		<dc:creator>Brett Bellmore</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 26 Mar 2005 02:57:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2005/03/24/violent-societies/#comment-64777</guid>
		<description>&lt;i&gt;&quot;Of course, doing the same for the US might increase figures a bit.&quot;&lt;/i&gt;

Only if you go back to the Civil war, Barry. And &lt;i&gt;WE&lt;/i&gt; don&#039;t seem to have one of those every few decades.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p><i>&#8220;Of course, doing the same for the US might increase figures a bit.&#8221;</i></p>

	<p>Only if you go back to the Civil war, Barry. And <i>WE</i> don&#8217;t seem to have one of those every few decades.</p>
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		<title>By: bellatrys</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/03/24/violent-societies/comment-page-1/#comment-64770</link>
		<dc:creator>bellatrys</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 26 Mar 2005 00:53:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2005/03/24/violent-societies/#comment-64770</guid>
		<description>Well, perhaps, alan - but we&#039;re not going around saying &quot;look how much better of we are than the third-world countries we&#039;ve been exploiting for the past 100 years,&quot; instead we in this country (particularly conservatives) have been holding ourselves up as models by comparison to &quot;godless Old Europe.&quot; 

I doubt very much - though who knows, what with all the &quot;But Saddam killed more Iraqis than we did!&quot; rhetoric, the race to the bottom may get there yet - that George Will and Rich Lowry and Peggy Noonan are going to be going &quot;Aren&#039;t we great, just see how much less violence and corruption we have than Columbia and Mexico!&quot; anytime soon.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Well, perhaps, alan &#8211; but we&#8217;re not going around saying &#8220;look how much better of we are than the third-world countries we&#8217;ve been exploiting for the past 100 years,&#8221; instead we in this country (particularly conservatives) have been holding ourselves up as models by comparison to &#8220;godless Old Europe.&#8221;</p>

	<p>I doubt very much &#8211; though who knows, what with all the &#8220;But Saddam killed more Iraqis than we did!&#8221; rhetoric, the race to the bottom may get there yet &#8211; that George Will and Rich Lowry and Peggy Noonan are going to be going &#8220;Aren&#8217;t we great, just see how much less violence and corruption we have than Columbia and Mexico!&#8221; anytime soon.</p>
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		<title>By: Alan</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/03/24/violent-societies/comment-page-1/#comment-64743</link>
		<dc:creator>Alan</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 25 Mar 2005 20:15:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2005/03/24/violent-societies/#comment-64743</guid>
		<description>I&#039;m opposed to the death penalty, and am as appalled as anyone at the glorification of violence in American society.  Nonetheless, I&#039;ve always thought there was something unfair in these comparisons of U.S. violent crime rates with those of other &quot;advanced industrial&quot; (mostly European) nations.  Far more accurate and revealing would be comparisons of U.S. violence rates with those of, say, Latin American nations like Brazil, which are far more similar to the U.S. in terms of the history and sociology relevant to these things.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>I&#8217;m opposed to the death penalty, and am as appalled as anyone at the glorification of violence in American society.  Nonetheless, I&#8217;ve always thought there was something unfair in these comparisons of U.S. violent crime rates with those of other &#8220;advanced industrial&#8221; (mostly European) nations.  Far more accurate and revealing would be comparisons of U.S. violence rates with those of, say, Latin American nations like Brazil, which are far more similar to the U.S. in terms of the history and sociology relevant to these things.</p>
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		<title>By: bellatrys</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/03/24/violent-societies/comment-page-1/#comment-64726</link>
		<dc:creator>bellatrys</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 25 Mar 2005 19:17:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2005/03/24/violent-societies/#comment-64726</guid>
		<description>The US of course has never ever in our history committed a genocide or internal extreme violence...

[/irony]

We just got it out of our system - perhaps - a hundred-fifty years ago. Until eliminationism and witchhunts come back in fashion.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>The US of course has never ever in our history committed a genocide or internal extreme violence&#8230;</p>

	<p>[/irony]</p>

	<p>We just got it out of our system &#8211; perhaps &#8211; a hundred-fifty years ago. Until eliminationism and witchhunts come back in fashion.</p>
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		<title>By: Barry</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/03/24/violent-societies/comment-page-1/#comment-64686</link>
		<dc:creator>Barry</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 25 Mar 2005 17:39:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2005/03/24/violent-societies/#comment-64686</guid>
		<description>&quot;If you extend the period of the analysis to cover the entire 20th century, rather than just the latter 40% of it, you will note that European rates of violent death are actually much more variable, and on average much, much higher, than in the US. It’s just that we maintain a fairly moderate level of violent death, while they alternate low levels with binges of genocidal horror.&quot;

Posted by Brett Bellmore · March 24th, 2005 at 9:12 pm 

Of course, doing the same for the US might increase figures a bit.  </description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>&#8220;If you extend the period of the analysis to cover the entire 20th century, rather than just the latter 40% of it, you will note that European rates of violent death are actually much more variable, and on average much, much higher, than in the US. It&#8217;s just that we maintain a fairly moderate level of violent death, while they alternate low levels with binges of genocidal horror.&#8221;</p>

	<p>Posted by Brett Bellmore &#183; March 24th, 2005 at 9:12 pm</p>

	<p>Of course, doing the same for the US might increase figures a bit.</p>
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		<title>By: Kieran Healy</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/03/24/violent-societies/comment-page-1/#comment-64669</link>
		<dc:creator>Kieran Healy</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 25 Mar 2005 16:03:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2005/03/24/violent-societies/#comment-64669</guid>
		<description>Interesting figures, Mike -- especially the child homicide part of the surface. Infancy is much more dangerous than later childhood.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Interesting figures, Mike&#8212;especially the child homicide part of the surface. Infancy is much more dangerous than later childhood.</p>
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		<title>By: Joshua W. Burton</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/03/24/violent-societies/comment-page-1/#comment-64657</link>
		<dc:creator>Joshua W. Burton</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 25 Mar 2005 15:18:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2005/03/24/violent-societies/#comment-64657</guid>
		<description>It&#039;s also worth noting that the US homicide rate starts falling sharply just 16 or 17 years after Roe v. Wade.  I&#039;ve seen, but can&#039;t find on the web, graphs showing that states with early &quot;soft&quot; policies on induced abortion (first CT, then CA, NY, and a couple of others) each began to drop the appropriate number of years ahead of the national rate.  The obvious hypothesis is that a significant number of future murderers are no longer being born.

There&#039;s no use in taking this idea into the pro-life/pro-choice debate, of course:  even if there&#039;s something to it, you have to kill a hundred fetuses for every murder averted.  So everybody winds up on the same side of that debate as before, at slightly higher stakes.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>It&#8217;s also worth noting that the US homicide rate starts falling sharply just 16 or 17 years after Roe v. Wade.  I&#8217;ve seen, but can&#8217;t find on the web, graphs showing that states with early &#8220;soft&#8221; policies on induced abortion (first CT, then CA, NY, and a couple of others) each began to drop the appropriate number of years ahead of the national rate.  The obvious hypothesis is that a significant number of future murderers are no longer being born.</p>

	<p>There&#8217;s no use in taking this idea into the pro-life/pro-choice debate, of course:  even if there&#8217;s something to it, you have to kill a hundred fetuses for every murder averted.  So everybody winds up on the same side of that debate as before, at slightly higher stakes.</p>
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		<title>By: Mike Maltz</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/03/24/violent-societies/comment-page-1/#comment-64656</link>
		<dc:creator>Mike Maltz</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 25 Mar 2005 15:15:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2005/03/24/violent-societies/#comment-64656</guid>
		<description>Kieran:

For another view of homicide (in the US), you might take a look at http://tigger.uic.edu/~mikem//homicide.PDF; the relevant figures (which don&#039;t come out too well in the printed version) can be found at http://www.uic.edu/~mikem/3%20homicide%20figures.pdf</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Kieran:</p>

	<p>For another view of homicide (in the US), you might take a look at <a href="http://tigger.uic.edu/~mikem//homicide.PDF" rel="nofollow">http://tigger.uic.edu/~mikem//homicide.PDF</a>; the relevant figures (which don&#8217;t come out too well in the printed version) can be found at <a href="http://www.uic.edu/~mikem/3%20homicide%20figures.pdf" rel="nofollow">http://www.uic.edu/~mikem/3%20homicide%20figures.pdf</a></p>
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		<title>By: Joshua W. Burton</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/03/24/violent-societies/comment-page-1/#comment-64655</link>
		<dc:creator>Joshua W. Burton</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 25 Mar 2005 15:05:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2005/03/24/violent-societies/#comment-64655</guid>
		<description>Sorry, lost the URL.

See, for example, http://www.guncite.com/gun_control_gcgvintl.html.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Sorry, lost the <span class="caps">URL</span>.</p>

	<p>See, for example, <a href="http://www.guncite.com/gun_control_gcgvintl.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.guncite.com/gun_control_gcgvintl.html</a>.</p>
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		<title>By: Joshua W. Burton</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/03/24/violent-societies/comment-page-1/#comment-64654</link>
		<dc:creator>Joshua W. Burton</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 25 Mar 2005 15:04:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2005/03/24/violent-societies/#comment-64654</guid>
		<description>The mischaracterization of this data as &quot;violent death&quot; rather than &quot;assault death&quot; is obscuring a very interesting point.  If _all_ violent death (including suicide) is included, the US winds up right in the middle of the pack.

See, for example, .

There is, of course, a school of thought that excludes self-murder from the &quot;violence&quot; column of public-policy analysis, moving it over to &quot;personal autonomy&quot;.  But with all major religions and most of the history of Western moral philosophy weighing in on the other side, it&#039;s surely tendentious to treat this as a closed question, as these graphs implicitly do when headlined as &quot;rates of violent death&quot;.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>The mischaracterization of this data as &#8220;violent death&#8221; rather than &#8220;assault death&#8221; is obscuring a very interesting point.  If <em>all</em> violent death (including suicide) is included, the US winds up right in the middle of the pack.</p>

	<p>See, for example, .</p>

	<p>There is, of course, a school of thought that excludes self-murder from the &#8220;violence&#8221; column of public-policy analysis, moving it over to &#8220;personal autonomy&#8221;.  But with all major religions and most of the history of Western moral philosophy weighing in on the other side, it&#8217;s surely tendentious to treat this as a closed question, as these graphs implicitly do when headlined as &#8220;rates of violent death&#8221;.</p>
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