Comments on: Irrational Weighting of Probabilities: A Data Point http://crookedtimber.org/2005/04/19/irrational-weighting-of-probabilities-a-data-point/ Out of the crooked timber of humanity, no straight thing was ever made Sat, 26 May 2012 15:19:52 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.2 By: vivian http://crookedtimber.org/2005/04/19/irrational-weighting-of-probabilities-a-data-point/comment-page-1/#comment-68524 vivian Wed, 20 Apr 2005 01:07:35 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2005/04/19/irrational-weighting-of-probabilities-a-data-point/#comment-68524 We love you, whether or not you're embarassed, and hope for the best. It's not the probability, it's the expected value that has you worried. There is some disutility associated with uncertainty between harmless options A and B, but a massively nonlinear weighting term (negative) multiplies the vanishingly small C probability. It would be really disturbing if you weren't worried. Though of course people who know you doubtless wish that you could be spared the pain of worrying, that doesn't mean anyone thinks you're nuts. Good luck. We love you, whether or not you’re embarassed, and hope for the best.

It’s not the probability, it’s the expected value that has you worried. There is some disutility associated with uncertainty between harmless options A and B, but a massively nonlinear weighting term (negative) multiplies the vanishingly small C probability. It would be really disturbing if you weren’t worried. Though of course people who know you doubtless wish that you could be spared the pain of worrying, that doesn’t mean anyone thinks you’re nuts.

Good luck.

]]> By: Kieran Healy http://crookedtimber.org/2005/04/19/irrational-weighting-of-probabilities-a-data-point/comment-page-1/#comment-68517 Kieran Healy Wed, 20 Apr 2005 00:32:57 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2005/04/19/irrational-weighting-of-probabilities-a-data-point/#comment-68517 Thanks all. But now I feel a bit embarrassed, given that nothing at all is actually wrong at this point, so far as we know, and the overwhelming likelihood is that there's nothing to worry about in the future, either. So I should just count my blessings and be quiet. Thanks all. But now I feel a bit embarrassed, given that nothing at all is actually wrong at this point, so far as we know, and the overwhelming likelihood is that there’s nothing to worry about in the future, either. So I should just count my blessings and be quiet.

]]> By: Tom T. http://crookedtimber.org/2005/04/19/irrational-weighting-of-probabilities-a-data-point/comment-page-1/#comment-68513 Tom T. Tue, 19 Apr 2005 23:49:29 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2005/04/19/irrational-weighting-of-probabilities-a-data-point/#comment-68513 I'm sorry to hear this. Best wishes to you and your child, and here's hoping that it's harmless. I’m sorry to hear this. Best wishes to you and your child, and here’s hoping that it’s harmless.

]]> By: Dave http://crookedtimber.org/2005/04/19/irrational-weighting-of-probabilities-a-data-point/comment-page-1/#comment-68508 Dave Tue, 19 Apr 2005 23:18:29 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2005/04/19/irrational-weighting-of-probabilities-a-data-point/#comment-68508 Yeah - what ogged said. Plus, if you assign a sufficiently negative utility to C, it doesn't matter how low the probability is. The expectation still sucks. Yeah – what ogged said.

Plus, if you assign a sufficiently negative utility to C, it doesn’t matter how low the probability is. The expectation still sucks.

]]> By: ogged http://crookedtimber.org/2005/04/19/irrational-weighting-of-probabilities-a-data-point/comment-page-1/#comment-68505 ogged Tue, 19 Apr 2005 23:17:28 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2005/04/19/irrational-weighting-of-probabilities-a-data-point/#comment-68505 Of course it's upsetting. Here's to A or B. Of course it’s upsetting. Here’s to A or B.

]]> By: Sebastian holsclaw http://crookedtimber.org/2005/04/19/irrational-weighting-of-probabilities-a-data-point/comment-page-1/#comment-68500 Sebastian holsclaw Tue, 19 Apr 2005 23:09:05 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2005/04/19/irrational-weighting-of-probabilities-a-data-point/#comment-68500 Ah, but you are human which is to say irrational. Ah, but you are human which is to say irrational.

]]>