Comments on: Election prediction http://crookedtimber.org/2005/05/05/election-prediction/ Out of the crooked timber of humanity, no straight thing was ever made Sun, 22 Nov 2009 02:13:42 -0800 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.6 hourly 1 By: dsquared http://crookedtimber.org/2005/05/05/election-prediction/comment-page-1/#comment-70704 dsquared Fri, 06 May 2005 08:58:17 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2005/05/05/election-prediction/#comment-70704 Btw, this looks pretty good for the betting markets. They missed Bethnal Green pretty badly, but they got the size of the majority and the LibDem seats pretty much spot on when all simple modelling approaches were a mile out. Btw, this looks pretty good for the betting markets. They missed Bethnal Green pretty badly, but they got the size of the majority and the LibDem seats pretty much spot on when all simple modelling approaches were a mile out.

]]> By: KCinDC http://crookedtimber.org/2005/05/05/election-prediction/comment-page-1/#comment-70691 KCinDC Fri, 06 May 2005 04:26:32 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2005/05/05/election-prediction/#comment-70691 I just heard that interview, Nick. Yikes! I would like our American journalists to be less obsequious, but I don't think that's the model to follow. Where can an interview go with an initial question like "Are you happy you knocked a black woman out of Parliament?" I just heard that interview, Nick. Yikes! I would like our American journalists to be less obsequious, but I don’t think that’s the model to follow. Where can an interview go with an initial question like “Are you happy you knocked a black woman out of Parliament?”

]]> By: nick http://crookedtimber.org/2005/05/05/election-prediction/comment-page-1/#comment-70690 nick Fri, 06 May 2005 03:55:48 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2005/05/05/election-prediction/#comment-70690 Well, Galloway's cockheaded exchange with Paxman (who was almost equally cockheaded, I must say) is one for the records. Well, Galloway’s cockheaded exchange with Paxman (who was almost equally cockheaded, I must say) is one for the records.

]]> By: ab http://crookedtimber.org/2005/05/05/election-prediction/comment-page-1/#comment-70689 ab Fri, 06 May 2005 03:39:21 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2005/05/05/election-prediction/#comment-70689 F&CK! -- 4.35 am -- Galloway just won Bethnal against Oona King -- What a tragedy! F&CK!—4.35 am—Galloway just won Bethnal against Oona King—What a tragedy!

]]> By: ab http://crookedtimber.org/2005/05/05/election-prediction/comment-page-1/#comment-70688 ab Fri, 06 May 2005 03:32:19 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2005/05/05/election-prediction/#comment-70688 4.25 am -- 324 seats -- Labour WON -- hurray! 4.25 am—324 seats—Labour WON —hurray!

]]> By: Daniel http://crookedtimber.org/2005/05/05/election-prediction/comment-page-1/#comment-70686 Daniel Fri, 06 May 2005 03:15:46 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2005/05/05/election-prediction/#comment-70686 Well it's 4am and I'm going to bed. My predictions look for shit. But Martin Baxter (who I may have referred to on IRC as "the hated Baxter" which was silly; he's a good guy and his book on martingale theory is excellent, so sorry) looks just as bad on the overall and I think slightly worse on inividual seat changes. It looks like LDs have done about as bad as I thought in two-way battles with Tories and much, much better in battles with Labour. See ya in the morning. (btw, I still think Labour hold BG&B) Well it’s 4am and I’m going to bed. My predictions look for shit. But Martin Baxter (who I may have referred to on IRC as “the hated Baxter” which was silly; he’s a good guy and his book on martingale theory is excellent, so sorry) looks just as bad on the overall and I think slightly worse on inividual seat changes. It looks like LDs have done about as bad as I thought in two-way battles with Tories and much, much better in battles with Labour. See ya in the morning. (btw, I still think Labour hold BG&B)

]]> By: ab http://crookedtimber.org/2005/05/05/election-prediction/comment-page-1/#comment-70685 ab Fri, 06 May 2005 02:48:02 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2005/05/05/election-prediction/#comment-70685 It's now 4am British time, and it looks like Labour holds on to a majority anywhere between 30 and 80 seats. Galloway beating Oona King would be a disaster; I hope it's not true. It’s now 4am British time, and it looks like Labour holds on to a majority anywhere between 30 and 80 seats.

Galloway beating Oona King would be a disaster; I hope it’s not true.

]]> By: John Quiggin http://crookedtimber.org/2005/05/05/election-prediction/comment-page-1/#comment-70684 John Quiggin Fri, 06 May 2005 02:31:32 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2005/05/05/election-prediction/#comment-70684 I just saw a report that George Galloway had beaten Oona King. This seems a pretty dreadful result, considering what I've read of the relative merits of the candidates. Still, it will presumably cause Blair more discomfort than it causes me. I just saw a report that George Galloway had beaten Oona King. This seems a pretty dreadful result, considering what I’ve read of the relative merits of the candidates. Still, it will presumably cause Blair more discomfort than it causes me.

]]> By: dominic murphy http://crookedtimber.org/2005/05/05/election-prediction/comment-page-1/#comment-70683 dominic murphy Fri, 06 May 2005 01:41:10 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2005/05/05/election-prediction/#comment-70683 Indeed. Boast away, boyo. Indeed. Boast away, boyo.

]]> By: g http://crookedtimber.org/2005/05/05/election-prediction/comment-page-1/#comment-70682 g Fri, 06 May 2005 01:29:35 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2005/05/05/election-prediction/#comment-70682 Well, the Lib Dems have indeed taken Ceredigion... Well, the Lib Dems have indeed taken Ceredigion…

]]> By: Lee Bryant http://crookedtimber.org/2005/05/05/election-prediction/comment-page-1/#comment-70675 Lee Bryant Thu, 05 May 2005 23:10:59 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2005/05/05/election-prediction/#comment-70675 388 for Labour is, I think, an overestimate. The 'anti' effect and a slight increase in turnout might yet combine to reduce their majority more than your guess implied. 388 for Labour is, I think, an overestimate. The ‘anti’ effect and a slight increase in turnout might yet combine to reduce their majority more than your guess implied.

]]> By: urizon http://crookedtimber.org/2005/05/05/election-prediction/comment-page-1/#comment-70666 urizon Thu, 05 May 2005 22:45:51 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2005/05/05/election-prediction/#comment-70666 Oops. Wrong thread. Hehe. Oops. Wrong thread. Hehe.

]]> By: urizon http://crookedtimber.org/2005/05/05/election-prediction/comment-page-1/#comment-70665 urizon Thu, 05 May 2005 22:45:11 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2005/05/05/election-prediction/#comment-70665 I happen to be a SUNY student. In my experience -- at SUNY New Paltz, anyway -- Horowitz' work has already been done for him. More than fifty percent of the New Paltz faculty are untenured adjuncts who make approximately two thousand dollar for a 16 week course. The number of tenured professors is shrinking every year, and the way things are going, there will be a couple of tenured professors in each department with dozens of adjuncts doing all the heavy lifting for a pittance. Now we've got that mendacious, fascist fuck Horowitz going after tenure within the SUNY system. What tenure, David, you pea-brained douche-bag? Sigh. Nice when two different agendas dove-tail so seamlessly into one another, huh? I happen to be a SUNY student. In my experience—at SUNY New Paltz, anyway—Horowitz’ work has already been done for him. More than fifty percent of the New Paltz faculty are untenured adjuncts who make approximately two thousand dollar for a 16 week course. The number of tenured professors is shrinking every year, and the way things are going, there will be a couple of tenured professors in each department with dozens of adjuncts doing all the heavy lifting for a pittance.

Now we’ve got that mendacious, fascist fuck Horowitz going after tenure within the SUNY system. What tenure, David, you pea-brained douche-bag?

Sigh.

Nice when two different agendas dove-tail so seamlessly into one another, huh?

]]> By: RS http://crookedtimber.org/2005/05/05/election-prediction/comment-page-1/#comment-70664 RS Thu, 05 May 2005 22:41:25 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2005/05/05/election-prediction/#comment-70664 Exit polls suggest no insane majority for Labour (66 on the Beeb), and the Lib Dems not doing too great (as always seems to be the case with our barmy electoral system). Exit polls suggest no insane majority for Labour (66 on the Beeb), and the Lib Dems not doing too great (as always seems to be the case with our barmy electoral system).

]]> By: nikolai http://crookedtimber.org/2005/05/05/election-prediction/comment-page-1/#comment-70653 nikolai Thu, 05 May 2005 20:58:47 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2005/05/05/election-prediction/#comment-70653 <i>Wow, that BBC calculator is crazy... What are the assumptions behind it?</i> The assumption's just a uniform swing. I voted Labour. But I really hope we don't get one of the insane majorities that are being floated around here. A majority in the 100s will let then do all sorts of stupid things, whereas if they're kept to below 40 at least it'll put the handbrake on some of their crazier ideas. A large majority - and with the Tory crippled and offering no opposition - will be an absolute curse. Wow, that BBC calculator is crazy… What are the assumptions behind it?

The assumption’s just a uniform swing.

I voted Labour. But I really hope we don’t get one of the insane majorities that are being floated around here. A majority in the 100s will let then do all sorts of stupid things, whereas if they’re kept to below 40 at least it’ll put the handbrake on some of their crazier ideas. A large majority – and with the Tory crippled and offering no opposition – will be an absolute curse.

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