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	<title>Comments on: Any sufficiently advanced punditry is indistinguishable from bollocks</title>
	<atom:link href="http://crookedtimber.org/2005/09/22/any-sufficiently-advanced-punditry-is-indistinguishable-from-bollocks/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/09/22/any-sufficiently-advanced-punditry-is-indistinguishable-from-bollocks/</link>
	<description>Out of the crooked timber of humanity, no straight thing was ever made</description>
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		<title>By: engels</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/09/22/any-sufficiently-advanced-punditry-is-indistinguishable-from-bollocks/comment-page-1/#comment-103184</link>
		<dc:creator>engels</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 26 Sep 2005 15:33:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2005/09/22/any-sufficiently-advanced-punditry-is-indistinguishable-from-bollocks/#comment-103184</guid>
		<description>Probably a bit late to try to pick holes in the actual post but, Daniel, you do realise that, in the example you give, n is dependent on U, so raising Kurzweil by a technopony will not necessarily be enough to defeat him on expected utility, as doing so may well make your predictions less probable than his? Isn&#039;t this also a problem with Tyler&#039;s original argument? In general, a large U gives no reason to expect a large E, because it&#039;s plausible to expect a negative correlation between U and n. Or am I taking this too seriously?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Probably a bit late to try to pick holes in the actual post but, Daniel, you do realise that, in the example you give, n is dependent on U, so raising Kurzweil by a technopony will not necessarily be enough to defeat him on expected utility, as doing so may well make your predictions less probable than his? Isn&#8217;t this also a problem with Tyler&#8217;s original argument? In general, a large U gives no reason to expect a large E, because it&#8217;s plausible to expect a negative correlation between U and n. Or am I taking this too seriously?</p>
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		<title>By: Henry</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/09/22/any-sufficiently-advanced-punditry-is-indistinguishable-from-bollocks/comment-page-1/#comment-102704</link>
		<dc:creator>Henry</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 24 Sep 2005 23:28:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2005/09/22/any-sufficiently-advanced-punditry-is-indistinguishable-from-bollocks/#comment-102704</guid>
		<description>Not LGF meets Skynet either. More like an &quot;uploaded version&quot;:http://www.asimovs.com/Nebulas03/Lobsters.shtml of the Medium Lobster.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Not <span class="caps">LGF</span> meets Skynet either. More like an <a href="<a" title="">uploaded version</a> href=&#8221;http://www.asimovs.com/Nebulas03/Lobsters.shtml&#8221; rel=&#8221;nofollow&#8221;>http://www.asimovs.com/Nebulas03/Lobsters.shtml of the Medium Lobster.</p>
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		<title>By: engels</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/09/22/any-sufficiently-advanced-punditry-is-indistinguishable-from-bollocks/comment-page-1/#comment-102691</link>
		<dc:creator>engels</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 24 Sep 2005 23:19:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2005/09/22/any-sufficiently-advanced-punditry-is-indistinguishable-from-bollocks/#comment-102691</guid>
		<description>&lt;blockquote&gt;The only possible explanation is that “j0nesing_around” is actually an artificial intelligence from the future sent to troll liberal blogs.&lt;/blockquote&gt;

It&#039;s not true AI, though: more like &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.manifestation.com/neurotoys/eliza.php3&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Eliza&lt;/a&gt;.

&lt;blockquote&gt;ELIZA has almost no intelligence whatsoever, only tricks like string substitution and canned responses based on keywords.&lt;/blockquote&gt;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p><blockquote>The only possible explanation is that &#8220;j0nesing_around&#8221; is actually an artificial intelligence from the future sent to troll liberal blogs.</blockquote></p>

	<p>It&#8217;s not true AI, though: more like <a href="http://www.manifestation.com/neurotoys/eliza.php3" rel="nofollow">Eliza</a>.</p>

	<p><blockquote><span class="caps">ELIZA</span> has almost no intelligence whatsoever, only tricks like string substitution and canned responses based on keywords.</blockquote></p>
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		<title>By: theogon</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/09/22/any-sufficiently-advanced-punditry-is-indistinguishable-from-bollocks/comment-page-1/#comment-102645</link>
		<dc:creator>theogon</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 24 Sep 2005 21:56:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2005/09/22/any-sufficiently-advanced-punditry-is-indistinguishable-from-bollocks/#comment-102645</guid>
		<description>Jonesy seems to be saying, so far as I can tell, that he doesn&#039;t need to adress the topics of the post in its comments because he has ascended to a higher level of consciousness. The only possible explanation is that &quot;j0nesing_around&quot; is actually an artificial intelligence from the future sent to troll liberal blogs. 

In other words, LGF will evolve into SkyNet...</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Jonesy seems to be saying, so far as I can tell, that he doesn&#8217;t need to adress the topics of the post in its comments because he has ascended to a higher level of consciousness. The only possible explanation is that &#8220;j0nesing_around&#8221; is actually an artificial intelligence from the future sent to troll liberal blogs.</p>

	<p>In other words, <span class="caps">LGF</span> will evolve into SkyNet&#8230;</p>
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		<title>By: j0nesing_around</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/09/22/any-sufficiently-advanced-punditry-is-indistinguishable-from-bollocks/comment-page-1/#comment-102644</link>
		<dc:creator>j0nesing_around</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 24 Sep 2005 21:55:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2005/09/22/any-sufficiently-advanced-punditry-is-indistinguishable-from-bollocks/#comment-102644</guid>
		<description>The right kind dude.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>The right kind dude.</p>
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		<title>By: engels</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/09/22/any-sufficiently-advanced-punditry-is-indistinguishable-from-bollocks/comment-page-1/#comment-102630</link>
		<dc:creator>engels</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 24 Sep 2005 19:11:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2005/09/22/any-sufficiently-advanced-punditry-is-indistinguishable-from-bollocks/#comment-102630</guid>
		<description>&lt;blockquote&gt;My examples are a metaphor for a state of mind... I don’t want to make your kind of sense.&lt;/blockquote&gt;

Do all conservatives do acid?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p><blockquote>My examples are a metaphor for a state of mind&#8230; I don&#8217;t want to make your kind of sense.</blockquote></p>

	<p>Do all conservatives do acid?</p>
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		<title>By: abb1</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/09/22/any-sufficiently-advanced-punditry-is-indistinguishable-from-bollocks/comment-page-1/#comment-102616</link>
		<dc:creator>abb1</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 24 Sep 2005 16:42:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2005/09/22/any-sufficiently-advanced-punditry-is-indistinguishable-from-bollocks/#comment-102616</guid>
		<description>Why, I liked the &#039;a big man with long red beard kills a small white dog with an axe&#039; story, it&#039;s funny.

Don&#039;t you think it&#039;s kinda even worse on the other (pseudo-conservative) side, where anything and everything is labeled in a black-and-white manner as &#039;freedom&#039; or &#039;terror&#039; or &#039;liberation&#039;, though? Once in a while some things pop up on occasions that do have a few different angles, you know.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Why, I liked the &#8216;a big man with long red beard kills a small white dog with an axe&#8217; story, it&#8217;s funny.</p>

	<p>Don&#8217;t you think it&#8217;s kinda even worse on the other (pseudo-conservative) side, where anything and everything is labeled in a black-and-white manner as &#8216;freedom&#8217; or &#8216;terror&#8217; or &#8216;liberation&#8217;, though? Once in a while some things pop up on occasions that do have a few different angles, you know.</p>
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		<title>By: j0nesing_around</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/09/22/any-sufficiently-advanced-punditry-is-indistinguishable-from-bollocks/comment-page-1/#comment-102614</link>
		<dc:creator>j0nesing_around</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 24 Sep 2005 16:22:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2005/09/22/any-sufficiently-advanced-punditry-is-indistinguishable-from-bollocks/#comment-102614</guid>
		<description>See engels proves what I have said with this knee jerk comment. He doesn&#039;t get it - they never do.

My examples are a metaphor for a state of mind, and engels gets all tied up in a critique about my failure to engage on the level of  Prospect, Kurzweil, and expected utility. He doesn&#039;t understand that I reject some of the fundamental presuppostions as fallacies and so have resorted to allegory.

I don&#039;t want to make your kind of sense.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>See engels proves what I have said with this knee jerk comment. He doesn&#8217;t get it &#8211; they never do.</p>

	<p>My examples are a metaphor for a state of mind, and engels gets all tied up in a critique about my failure to engage on the level of  Prospect, Kurzweil, and expected utility. He doesn&#8217;t understand that I reject some of the fundamental presuppostions as fallacies and so have resorted to allegory.</p>

	<p>I don&#8217;t want to make your kind of sense.</p>
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		<title>By: engels</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/09/22/any-sufficiently-advanced-punditry-is-indistinguishable-from-bollocks/comment-page-1/#comment-102610</link>
		<dc:creator>engels</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 24 Sep 2005 15:58:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2005/09/22/any-sufficiently-advanced-punditry-is-indistinguishable-from-bollocks/#comment-102610</guid>
		<description>&quot;j0nesing_around&quot; - I just wasted 30 seconds of my life reading through that rambling enumeration of your prejudices. It has nothing to do with &lt;i&gt;Prospect&lt;/i&gt;, Kurzweil, or expected utility, save that this post appeared on a &quot;librul&quot; site. Did you read the post, or just the title? Assuming the former, you have just provided conclusive proof that it is you who see life &quot;through the lense of a myriad of abstract rationales and theories&quot;.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>&#8220;j0nesing_around&#8221; &#8211; I just wasted 30 seconds of my life reading through that rambling enumeration of your prejudices. It has nothing to do with <i>Prospect</i>, Kurzweil, or expected utility, save that this post appeared on a &#8220;librul&#8221; site. Did you read the post, or just the title? Assuming the former, you have just provided conclusive proof that it is you who see life &#8220;through the lense of a myriad of abstract rationales and theories&#8221;.</p>
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		<title>By: Jonathan Goldberg</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/09/22/any-sufficiently-advanced-punditry-is-indistinguishable-from-bollocks/comment-page-1/#comment-102602</link>
		<dc:creator>Jonathan Goldberg</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 24 Sep 2005 14:49:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2005/09/22/any-sufficiently-advanced-punditry-is-indistinguishable-from-bollocks/#comment-102602</guid>
		<description>And Kevin Drum, who was once a CT poster, takes this seriously.  It&#039;s true he feels no need to actually read the book first, but still...

http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2005_09/007172.php

Oh, the shame of it.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>And Kevin Drum, who was once a CT poster, takes this seriously.  It&#8217;s true he feels no need to actually read the book first, but still&#8230;</p>

	<p><a href="http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2005_09/007172.php" rel="nofollow">http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2005_09/007172.php</a></p>

	<p>Oh, the shame of it.</p>
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		<title>By: j0nesing_around</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/09/22/any-sufficiently-advanced-punditry-is-indistinguishable-from-bollocks/comment-page-1/#comment-102598</link>
		<dc:creator>j0nesing_around</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 24 Sep 2005 13:18:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2005/09/22/any-sufficiently-advanced-punditry-is-indistinguishable-from-bollocks/#comment-102598</guid>
		<description>This is true - punditry, especially leftist- liberal-cerebral-machinations are definitely bollock prone. You only have to read some of the convoluted and completely unreal excersises in mental abuse that pass in here for &quot;wisdom&quot;. 

The liberal mind never sees things in black and white. Things are never as they appear. Ever.

For example a big man with long red beard kills a small white dog with an axe in the middle of the street in front of everyone ... a solid down to earth conservative will say - 

&quot;A big guy with a red beard axed a little white dog to death.&quot;

You think this is how the average liberal will see it? Oooooooh no. No way jose! Take this bleeding heart called um ... Mikhail Flumkeind ... he&#039;s has an entirely different take on it. Listen up ...

&quot;I saw this severely disadvantaged person who has been mercilessly duped by the Bush administration make an impulsive gesture driven by desperation and need and a poodle owned by that awful Republican zillionaire Goldy Goldestein
accidentally wondered in the radial arc of his descending axe ... the axe he always uses incidentally for chopping the wood he needs to feed his starving children.&quot;

Ok, see that! Life is seen through the lense of a myriad of abstract rationales and theories. NOTHING is the way it seems. Obfuscation ... smoke and mirrors ... oh yeah baby, and then some.

If you challenge such odd ball takes on what was clearly the cold blooded murder of a dog, they look at you as though you are an idiot, and say  with lofty irony ...

&quot;Haha yes well you just don&#039;t get it!&quot;

Take another example. Two cops are tracking a suspect who has just slaughtered and eaten all the residents of an old people&#039;s home. This suspect is purple and has yellow tinges on his skin that glow in the dark and shoot laser beams.

Ok, the conservative, no-nonsense cop is going to put out an alert that says JUST THAT - all of the above.

However the liberal, complex and of course ... &quot;sensitive&quot; cop will say to his associates -

&quot;Gee guys, we can&#039;t refer to his skin color that would be profiling. And we can&#039;t say he is &quot;fat&quot; - oops sorry, I mean &quot;large&quot; - and that he has a  wooden leg with &quot;Allah rules&quot; carved on it because that might offend the muslim community. So the liberal cop ends up posting ...

&quot;The suspect was wearing a ball cap, white t&#039;shirt and blue bermuda shorts, roughly 5&#039;10 and appears to have a minor disability.&quot;

So in deference to political correctness and all ... the liberal cop puts out a description that applies to a billion people on the planet, whereas the conservative cop nails the one, and the ONLY possible villain.

So, in answer to the bollocks thesis ...

Absototallootly.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>This is true &#8211; punditry, especially leftist- liberal-cerebral-machinations are definitely bollock prone. You only have to read some of the convoluted and completely unreal excersises in mental abuse that pass in here for &#8220;wisdom&#8221;.</p>

	<p>The liberal mind never sees things in black and white. Things are never as they appear. Ever.</p>

	<p>For example a big man with long red beard kills a small white dog with an axe in the middle of the street in front of everyone &#8230; a solid down to earth conservative will say &#8211;<br />
&#8220;A big guy with a red beard axed a little white dog to death.&#8221;</p>

	<p>You think this is how the average liberal will see it? Oooooooh no. No way jose! Take this bleeding heart called um &#8230; Mikhail Flumkeind &#8230; he&#8217;s has an entirely different take on it. Listen up &#8230;</p>

	<p>&#8220;I saw this severely disadvantaged person who has been mercilessly duped by the Bush administration make an impulsive gesture driven by desperation and need and a poodle owned by that awful Republican zillionaire Goldy Goldestein<br />
accidentally wondered in the radial arc of his descending axe &#8230; the axe he always uses incidentally for chopping the wood he needs to feed his starving children.&#8221;</p>

	<p>Ok, see that! Life is seen through the lense of a myriad of abstract rationales and theories. <span class="caps">NOTHING</span> is the way it seems. Obfuscation &#8230; smoke and mirrors &#8230; oh yeah baby, and then some.</p>

	<p>If you challenge such odd ball takes on what was clearly the cold blooded murder of a dog, they look at you as though you are an idiot, and say  with lofty irony &#8230;</p>

	<p>&#8220;Haha yes well you just don&#8217;t get it!&#8221;</p>

	<p>Take another example. Two cops are tracking a suspect who has just slaughtered and eaten all the residents of an old people&#8217;s home. This suspect is purple and has yellow tinges on his skin that glow in the dark and shoot laser beams.</p>

	<p>Ok, the conservative, no-nonsense cop is going to put out an alert that says <span class="caps">JUST THAT </span>- all of the above.</p>

	<p>However the liberal, complex and of course &#8230; &#8220;sensitive&#8221; cop will say to his associates &#8211;<br />
&#8220;Gee guys, we can&#8217;t refer to his skin color that would be profiling. And we can&#8217;t say he is &#8220;fat&#8221; &#8211; oops sorry, I mean &#8220;large&#8221; &#8211; and that he has a  wooden leg with &#8220;Allah rules&#8221; carved on it because that might offend the muslim community. So the liberal cop ends up posting &#8230;</p>

	<p>&#8220;The suspect was wearing a ball cap, white t&#8217;shirt and blue bermuda shorts, roughly 5&#8217;10 and appears to have a minor disability.&#8221;</p>

	<p>So in deference to political correctness and all &#8230; the liberal cop puts out a description that applies to a billion people on the planet, whereas the conservative cop nails the one, and the <span class="caps">ONLY</span> possible villain.</p>

	<p>So, in answer to the bollocks thesis &#8230;</p>

	<p>Absototallootly.</p>
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		<title>By: Brett Bellmore</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/09/22/any-sufficiently-advanced-punditry-is-indistinguishable-from-bollocks/comment-page-1/#comment-102594</link>
		<dc:creator>Brett Bellmore</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 24 Sep 2005 12:46:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2005/09/22/any-sufficiently-advanced-punditry-is-indistinguishable-from-bollocks/#comment-102594</guid>
		<description>Historically speaking, for the Marxists it&#039;s been, &quot;Once we&#039;ve killed everyone who didn&#039;t at least pretend to believe our fundamental ideological tenets&quot;... ;)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Historically speaking, for the Marxists it&#8217;s been, &#8220;Once we&#8217;ve killed everyone who didn&#8217;t at least pretend to believe our fundamental ideological tenets&#8221;&#8230; ;)</p>
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		<title>By: abb1</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/09/22/any-sufficiently-advanced-punditry-is-indistinguishable-from-bollocks/comment-page-1/#comment-102589</link>
		<dc:creator>abb1</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 24 Sep 2005 11:08:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2005/09/22/any-sufficiently-advanced-punditry-is-indistinguishable-from-bollocks/#comment-102589</guid>
		<description>I don&#039;t think any of these ideologies rely on &quot;once everyone agrees with our fundamental ideological tenets, the glorious future will be inevitable!&quot;. Quite the contrary, the anarcho-capitalists rely on mercenaries, marxists on dictatorship of the proletariat and neocons on the US military. 

E.g.: if we make more aggressive use of the US military to promote US interests in the world, then liberal democracies will pop up all over the place and free market will flourish. All that, and everyone will get a pony too. 

See, it&#039;s not that everyone will necessarily agree, it&#039;s just that we will &#039;kill or capture&#039; those who resist and sufficiently intimidate the rest - for their own good.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>I don&#8217;t think any of these ideologies rely on &#8220;once everyone agrees with our fundamental ideological tenets, the glorious future will be inevitable!&#8221;. Quite the contrary, the anarcho-capitalists rely on mercenaries, marxists on dictatorship of the proletariat and neocons on the US military.</p>

	<p>E.g.: if we make more aggressive use of the US military to promote US interests in the world, then liberal democracies will pop up all over the place and free market will flourish. All that, and everyone will get a pony too.</p>

	<p>See, it&#8217;s not that everyone will necessarily agree, it&#8217;s just that we will &#8216;kill or capture&#8217; those who resist and sufficiently intimidate the rest &#8211; for their own good.</p>
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		<title>By: robotslave</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/09/22/any-sufficiently-advanced-punditry-is-indistinguishable-from-bollocks/comment-page-1/#comment-102582</link>
		<dc:creator>robotslave</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 24 Sep 2005 10:20:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2005/09/22/any-sufficiently-advanced-punditry-is-indistinguishable-from-bollocks/#comment-102582</guid>
		<description>I have to say, it&#039;s quite odd to see the &quot;and a pony&quot; reference invoked by a person who is (or at least was, at some point in the past) a staunch defender of anarcho-capitalism.

Or have we forgotten the fact that the pony was first deployed in an attack on Libertarianism?

With that said, I am not a huge fan of the &quot;and a pony&quot; argument; my own critique of the libertarians, the Marxists, the anarcho-capitalists, the neocons, ad barfum, is not that they promise more than they can deliver, but that their utopias all rest on the notion of &quot;once everyone agrees with our fundamental ideological tenets, the glorious future will be inevitable!

When I&#039;m being charitable, I read &quot;and a pony&quot; to mean, &quot;and everyone will of course eventually come around to this point of view.&quot;

This is how you distinguish a nutter from the rest-- in the nutter&#039;s ideal future, the rest simply do not exist.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>I have to say, it&#8217;s quite odd to see the &#8220;and a pony&#8221; reference invoked by a person who is (or at least was, at some point in the past) a staunch defender of anarcho-capitalism.</p>

	<p>Or have we forgotten the fact that the pony was first deployed in an attack on Libertarianism?</p>

	<p>With that said, I am not a huge fan of the &#8220;and a pony&#8221; argument; my own critique of the libertarians, the Marxists, the anarcho-capitalists, the neocons, ad barfum, is not that they promise more than they can deliver, but that their utopias all rest on the notion of &#8220;once everyone agrees with our fundamental ideological tenets, the glorious future will be inevitable!</p>

	<p>When I&#8217;m being charitable, I read &#8220;and a pony&#8221; to mean, &#8220;and everyone will of course eventually come around to this point of view.&#8221;</p>

	<p>This is how you distinguish a nutter from the rest&#8212;in the nutter&#8217;s ideal future, the rest simply do not exist.</p>
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		<title>By: Martin James</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/09/22/any-sufficiently-advanced-punditry-is-indistinguishable-from-bollocks/comment-page-1/#comment-102571</link>
		<dc:creator>Martin James</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 24 Sep 2005 06:27:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2005/09/22/any-sufficiently-advanced-punditry-is-indistinguishable-from-bollocks/#comment-102571</guid>
		<description>Why does the payoff from thinking have to be related to the payoffs described by the thinking?

Isn&#039;t it as likely that a pessimistic theory could lead to ludicrously optimistic results as an optimistic theory?

Without a meta-theory to measure ex post payoffs, how do you take the expected value? 

How about this related practical question.

How does one optimize the choice of one&#039;s preferences?

Furthermore, since we know ignorance is bliss, the singularity is oh so unblissful and Kurzweil is the devil.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Why does the payoff from thinking have to be related to the payoffs described by the thinking?</p>

	<p>Isn&#8217;t it as likely that a pessimistic theory could lead to ludicrously optimistic results as an optimistic theory?</p>

	<p>Without a meta-theory to measure ex post payoffs, how do you take the expected value?</p>

	<p>How about this related practical question.</p>

	<p>How does one optimize the choice of one&#8217;s preferences?</p>

	<p>Furthermore, since we know ignorance is bliss, the singularity is oh so unblissful and Kurzweil is the devil.</p>
 ]]></content:encoded>
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