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	<title>Comments on: Rationality repost</title>
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	<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/10/14/rationality-repost/</link>
	<description>Out of the crooked timber of humanity, no straight thing was ever made</description>
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		<title>By: Paul Gowder</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/10/14/rationality-repost/comment-page-1/#comment-110374</link>
		<dc:creator>Paul Gowder</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 16 Oct 2005 20:11:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2005/10/14/rationality-repost/#comment-110374</guid>
		<description>Yea, well, the trick is to specify the function appropriately.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Yea, well, the trick is to specify the function appropriately.</p>
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		<title>By: Brian Macker</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/10/14/rationality-repost/comment-page-1/#comment-110365</link>
		<dc:creator>Brian Macker</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 16 Oct 2005 18:16:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2005/10/14/rationality-repost/#comment-110365</guid>
		<description>I came to this article via Catallarchy.   I wrote a post about that article and have a section at the bottom of my article on the use of the term rational in economics.   There are no trackbacks here, so click on my name to get to the article or copy this link: http://brainwacker.blogspot.com/2005/10/attempted-assasination-of-word.html

I think it was a mistake for economists to give the word rational a different meaning than the conventional one when discussing human behavior.    The common meaning of the word rational is already in the sphere of human behavior which economists are trying to address.  They should have coined a new term.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>I came to this article via Catallarchy.   I wrote a post about that article and have a section at the bottom of my article on the use of the term rational in economics.   There are no trackbacks here, so click on my name to get to the article or copy this link: <a href="http://brainwacker.blogspot.com/2005/10/attempted-assasination-of-word.html" rel="nofollow">http://brainwacker.blogspot.com/2005/10/attempted-assasination-of-word.html</a></p>

	<p>I think it was a mistake for economists to give the word rational a different meaning than the conventional one when discussing human behavior.    The common meaning of the word rational is already in the sphere of human behavior which economists are trying to address.  They should have coined a new term.</p>
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		<title>By: paul</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/10/14/rationality-repost/comment-page-1/#comment-110351</link>
		<dc:creator>paul</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 16 Oct 2005 15:09:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2005/10/14/rationality-repost/#comment-110351</guid>
		<description>Reading all of these comments just seems to make JQ&#039;s point over and over again. The very investment some commenters have in the word and their legitimacy in using it in the way(s) they feel useful seems to me to confirm his observation that it is simultaneously empty and dangerous.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Reading all of these comments just seems to make JQ&#8217;s point over and over again. The very investment some commenters have in the word and their legitimacy in using it in the way(s) they feel useful seems to me to confirm his observation that it is simultaneously empty and dangerous.</p>
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		<title>By: Robert Waldmann</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/10/14/rationality-repost/comment-page-1/#comment-110216</link>
		<dc:creator>Robert Waldmann</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 16 Oct 2005 00:53:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2005/10/14/rationality-repost/#comment-110216</guid>
		<description>Very nice post.  I link to it and (this time) spell your name right.  I absolutely agree that defs 1 through 5 are all used and that people shift from one to the other.  I agree this means the word should be banished.  I have more comments on 1-5

1 reasonable as opposed to emotional

2 calculating as opposed to intuitive

1 and 2 are definitely not how economists use the word.  The standard view is that the mental process is not our business and &quot;rational&quot; is a statement about behavior.  This is the standard view because it is obvious that no one calculates as an agent in economic theory does when deciding what to order in a restaurant. 


3 self-interested as opposed to altruistic

Economists often identify rational with self interested but the official line is clear.  Ratiopnal means maximizing some objective which can include the welfare of others as arguments so rational altruism is definitely allowed by economic theory.


4 materialistic as opposed to non-materialistic

Clearly not what economists mean.  Many are religious and don&#039;t consider that irrational.


5 logically consistent as opposed to inconsistent

This is really a red herring.  The reason is that it is really a clearly false statement that utility functions are time separable and not a statement of rationality at all.  If given a chance for Pizza or conversation I choose Pizza then given a choice between reading a book and conversation I choose conversation then given a chance between reading another book and shoving another Pizza down my throat I read a book this just shows I had a very empty stomach and now have a full one.  It does not mean I am irrational.  

All of the alleged implications of rationality such as trasitivity revealed pref etc are really absurd claims about time separability.  If they were what economists really mean by rationality then all economists would have long since admitted that no one is rational.   Instead they are silly arguments which have nothing to do with anything and are accepted only by theorists who have lost track of the concept of consumption.

Got to admit that Amartya Sen said this long ago but it was clear to me before I heard it from him.

The whole idea of rationality as consistency requires that one may face the same choice twice.  This is impossible if the choice made in the past has an effect on the objective in the present.  All know that past choices do have such effects.  Thus rationality means transitivity when there is no really good reason to think that non separabilities are important, that is to say, nothing.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Very nice post.  I link to it and (this time) spell your name right.  I absolutely agree that defs 1 through 5 are all used and that people shift from one to the other.  I agree this means the word should be banished.  I have more comments on 1-5</p>

	<p>1 reasonable as opposed to emotional</p>

	<p>2 calculating as opposed to intuitive</p>

	<p>1 and 2 are definitely not how economists use the word.  The standard view is that the mental process is not our business and &#8220;rational&#8221; is a statement about behavior.  This is the standard view because it is obvious that no one calculates as an agent in economic theory does when deciding what to order in a restaurant.</p>


	<p>3 self-interested as opposed to altruistic</p>

	<p>Economists often identify rational with self interested but the official line is clear.  Ratiopnal means maximizing some objective which can include the welfare of others as arguments so rational altruism is definitely allowed by economic theory.</p>


	<p>4 materialistic as opposed to non-materialistic</p>

	<p>Clearly not what economists mean.  Many are religious and don&#8217;t consider that irrational.</p>


	<p>5 logically consistent as opposed to inconsistent</p>

	<p>This is really a red herring.  The reason is that it is really a clearly false statement that utility functions are time separable and not a statement of rationality at all.  If given a chance for Pizza or conversation I choose Pizza then given a choice between reading a book and conversation I choose conversation then given a chance between reading another book and shoving another Pizza down my throat I read a book this just shows I had a very empty stomach and now have a full one.  It does not mean I am irrational.</p>

	<p>All of the alleged implications of rationality such as trasitivity revealed pref etc are really absurd claims about time separability.  If they were what economists really mean by rationality then all economists would have long since admitted that no one is rational.   Instead they are silly arguments which have nothing to do with anything and are accepted only by theorists who have lost track of the concept of consumption.</p>

	<p>Got to admit that Amartya Sen said this long ago but it was clear to me before I heard it from him.</p>

	<p>The whole idea of rationality as consistency requires that one may face the same choice twice.  This is impossible if the choice made in the past has an effect on the objective in the present.  All know that past choices do have such effects.  Thus rationality means transitivity when there is no really good reason to think that non separabilities are important, that is to say, nothing.</p>
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		<title>By: radek</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/10/14/rationality-repost/comment-page-1/#comment-110215</link>
		<dc:creator>radek</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 16 Oct 2005 00:48:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2005/10/14/rationality-repost/#comment-110215</guid>
		<description>&quot;Game theory is reasonably well-defined and...can be regarded as a subset of rational choice theory&quot;

This is the essence of my disagreement. GT is a tool, a method. It is not a theory in the same sense that RTC is a theory - a theory of human behavior. GT is a theory in a mathematical sense in the same way as say, Functional Analysis is a theory. So to the fact that &#039;rationality&#039; gets used in confusing and ambigous ways, you gotta add the confusing and ambigous ways in which the word &#039;theory&#039; gets used. This is why I&#039;m objecting to conflating the two. You wanna argue about the validity/usefulness of the assumption of rationality in economics (or Social Science in general) that&#039;s one thing. You wanna argue about the validity/usefulness of game theoretic methods in economics (and beyond) that&#039;s another. There&#039;s hardly any value added to the discussion by slapping these two topics together.

I don&#039;t think there&#039;s anything intrinsic about game theory that implies rationality. Note that your discussion about rationality above has nothing to do with game theory per se, it&#039;s just sort of appended ad hoc to a sentence that mentions GT. Usually the strong rationality (I&#039;d rather call it &#039;sophistication&#039;, as in the case with SPNE) that you&#039;re objecting to is added in, but that&#039;s because of the standard problem that ... well, when you get rid of rationality you don&#039;t have much to replace it with. This is true of most economic models, whatever the tools you&#039;re using.

Another counter example. Games which have both &#039;rational&#039; and &#039;crazy&#039; or &#039;random acting&#039; agents. The rationality assumption lies in the equilibrium concept used (or not), not in the game itself.

Also, the basic problem in modeling human behavior is that you want your model to generate non-trivial sharp predictions which have a hope of being tested against real life data (contrary to what some posters assert above). That&#039;s not easy. Rationality by itself in fact doesn&#039;t usually deliver, partly because in economics at least it&#039;s a much weaker concept then most people think. So how do you get these non-trivial sharp predictions? You gotta throw in something else. In non-game-theoretic models the assumption of price taking behavior (which in fact in many cases is not strictly speaking &quot;rational&quot;) usually gets you there. In game theoretic models you need some kind of sophistication on the part of the agents - have them think about how the other player is going to act, whether certain strategies are credible or not etc. Or you assume that players who play strategies which result in lower payoffs get eliminated over time - evolutionary approach. Either way, you got to have something there to make it work which goes beyond rationality.

The length of my posts, I think, reflects the fact that I&#039;m a wordy kind of guy, but also that there&#039;s too many issues here being discussed at once, btw.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>&#8220;Game theory is reasonably well-defined and&#8230;can be regarded as a subset of rational choice theory&#8221;</p>

	<p>This is the essence of my disagreement. GT is a tool, a method. It is not a theory in the same sense that <span class="caps">RTC</span> is a theory &#8211; a theory of human behavior. GT is a theory in a mathematical sense in the same way as say, Functional Analysis is a theory. So to the fact that &#8216;rationality&#8217; gets used in confusing and ambigous ways, you gotta add the confusing and ambigous ways in which the word &#8216;theory&#8217; gets used. This is why I&#8217;m objecting to conflating the two. You wanna argue about the validity/usefulness of the assumption of rationality in economics (or Social Science in general) that&#8217;s one thing. You wanna argue about the validity/usefulness of game theoretic methods in economics (and beyond) that&#8217;s another. There&#8217;s hardly any value added to the discussion by slapping these two topics together.</p>

	<p>I don&#8217;t think there&#8217;s anything intrinsic about game theory that implies rationality. Note that your discussion about rationality above has nothing to do with game theory per se, it&#8217;s just sort of appended ad hoc to a sentence that mentions GT. Usually the strong rationality (I&#8217;d rather call it &#8216;sophistication&#8217;, as in the case with <span class="caps">SPNE</span>) that you&#8217;re objecting to is added in, but that&#8217;s because of the standard problem that &#8230; well, when you get rid of rationality you don&#8217;t have much to replace it with. This is true of most economic models, whatever the tools you&#8217;re using.</p>

	<p>Another counter example. Games which have both &#8216;rational&#8217; and &#8216;crazy&#8217; or &#8216;random acting&#8217; agents. The rationality assumption lies in the equilibrium concept used (or not), not in the game itself.</p>

	<p>Also, the basic problem in modeling human behavior is that you want your model to generate non-trivial sharp predictions which have a hope of being tested against real life data (contrary to what some posters assert above). That&#8217;s not easy. Rationality by itself in fact doesn&#8217;t usually deliver, partly because in economics at least it&#8217;s a much weaker concept then most people think. So how do you get these non-trivial sharp predictions? You gotta throw in something else. In non-game-theoretic models the assumption of price taking behavior (which in fact in many cases is not strictly speaking &#8220;rational&#8221;) usually gets you there. In game theoretic models you need some kind of sophistication on the part of the agents &#8211; have them think about how the other player is going to act, whether certain strategies are credible or not etc. Or you assume that players who play strategies which result in lower payoffs get eliminated over time &#8211; evolutionary approach. Either way, you got to have something there to make it work which goes beyond rationality.</p>

	<p>The length of my posts, I think, reflects the fact that I&#8217;m a wordy kind of guy, but also that there&#8217;s too many issues here being discussed at once, btw.</p>
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		<title>By: John Quiggin</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/10/14/rationality-repost/comment-page-1/#comment-110210</link>
		<dc:creator>John Quiggin</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 15 Oct 2005 22:29:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2005/10/14/rationality-repost/#comment-110210</guid>
		<description>Game theory is reasonably well-defined and, with the exception of evolutionary game theory, discussed above can be regarded as a subset of rational choice theory, focusing on strategic interactions between actors and concerned with equilibrium outcomes (such as the famous Nash equilibrium).

Rational choice theory is a bit vaguer - some would use this term as a synonym for neoclassical economics, but most commonly it&#039;s used in connection with applications of neoclassical economics to politics.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Game theory is reasonably well-defined and, with the exception of evolutionary game theory, discussed above can be regarded as a subset of rational choice theory, focusing on strategic interactions between actors and concerned with equilibrium outcomes (such as the famous Nash equilibrium).</p>

	<p>Rational choice theory is a bit vaguer &#8211; some would use this term as a synonym for neoclassical economics, but most commonly it&#8217;s used in connection with applications of neoclassical economics to politics.</p>
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		<title>By: Ben P</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/10/14/rationality-repost/comment-page-1/#comment-110203</link>
		<dc:creator>Ben P</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 15 Oct 2005 20:57:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2005/10/14/rationality-repost/#comment-110203</guid>
		<description>Quick question: is there any difference between &quot;game theory&quot; and &quot;rational choice theory,&quot; or are they just different names for the same ideas? Or, rather, are they theories that overlap in important ways, but cannot accurately be called the same thing?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Quick question: is there any difference between &#8220;game theory&#8221; and &#8220;rational choice theory,&#8221; or are they just different names for the same ideas? Or, rather, are they theories that overlap in important ways, but cannot accurately be called the same thing?</p>
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		<title>By: John Quiggin</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/10/14/rationality-repost/comment-page-1/#comment-110053</link>
		<dc:creator>John Quiggin</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 15 Oct 2005 12:49:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2005/10/14/rationality-repost/#comment-110053</guid>
		<description>Radek, there&#039;s a big difference between saying &quot;there are applications of game theory that don&#039;t rely on strong rationality assumptions&quot; and &quot;what Game Theory has to do with any of it beats the hell outta me&quot;. 

Look at notions like subgame perfectness, iterated dominance and so on. These are important in game theory and rely on much more stringent rationality criteria (including common knowledge of rationality) than most microeconomics or macroeconomics (extreme forms of rational expectations macro are an exception, but no one much believes them any more).</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Radek, there&#8217;s a big difference between saying &#8220;there are applications of game theory that don&#8217;t rely on strong rationality assumptions&#8221; and &#8220;what Game Theory has to do with any of it beats the hell outta me&#8221;.</p>

	<p>Look at notions like subgame perfectness, iterated dominance and so on. These are important in game theory and rely on much more stringent rationality criteria (including common knowledge of rationality) than most microeconomics or macroeconomics (extreme forms of rational expectations macro are an exception, but no one much believes them any more).</p>
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		<title>By: radek</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/10/14/rationality-repost/comment-page-1/#comment-109912</link>
		<dc:creator>radek</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 15 Oct 2005 09:32:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2005/10/14/rationality-repost/#comment-109912</guid>
		<description>Mathematical Claim, then “If this claim is accepted, it’s evident that the definition of rational choices as those that maximise an objective function is empty, since all choices satisfy this criterion.”

Well. No.

1.	Even if the definition given above is circular – in the sense that all behavior is rational by definition – it is not necessarily empty. As social scientists we still might want to know what exactly the function being maximized consists of. If I see you doing something, which in layman’s terms could be called ‘irrational’, I still might want to understand the reason behind the madness. I wouldn’t call you irrational or nothin’ but, I would still be interested in the peculiar kind of a utility function, the preferences, the motives, that generate a particular type of behavior.

2.	Maximization itself implies an existence of a structure. Generally speaking, well ordered preferences (transitive and complete) over a given choice set. Hence to maximize something, one has to assume consistency and comparability of alternatives in the first place – the (5) above. So the standard definition of rational preferences in economics is actually quite parsimonious, at least relative to how other disciplines define rationality. In absolute terms it is not, because:

3.	The “rational” in economics refers not to people but to their preferences. Preferences are rational, people … well, who knows. Which is not a trivial distinction. I might have transitive and complete preferences but that does not automatically imply I “act” on them. I think Conchis above is making the same point. And,
4.	Your Mathematical Claim smacks of the whole ‘Revealed Preference Approach’, without the revealing part. Not that there’s anything wrong with that. What’s wrong with that is to equivocate transitivity with consistency within that approach or in the context of the above definition. Consistency can only be determined if you have more than one observation since it necessarily involves comparing stuff. If you want to judge only a single observed choice, welp, then it’s gonna be consistent by definition since all you can go by is that choice itself. So in a way, there’s an intertemporal aspect here – if you see me doing one thing and then another how can you know whether I’m an irrational type of guy or whether my preferences have changed in the meantime, while still being complete and transitive. That’s the basic shortcoming of both the axiomatic approach to “rationality” and the mathematical claim above. Both are static. That’s what motivated Samuelson, though it became pretty obvious that even if you paribus all the ceteris you still can’t squeeze much out if it. 

I guess these last two points agree with the spirit of the post, although for completely different reasons. And what Game Theory has to do with any of it beats the hell outta me.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Mathematical Claim, then &#8220;If this claim is accepted, it&#8217;s evident that the definition of rational choices as those that maximise an objective function is empty, since all choices satisfy this criterion.&#8221;</p>

	<p>Well. No.</p>

	<p>1.Even if the definition given above is circular &#8211; in the sense that all behavior is rational by definition &#8211; it is not necessarily empty. As social scientists we still might want to know what exactly the function being maximized consists of. If I see you doing something, which in layman&#8217;s terms could be called &#8216;irrational&#8217;, I still might want to understand the reason behind the madness. I wouldn&#8217;t call you irrational or nothin&#8217; but, I would still be interested in the peculiar kind of a utility function, the preferences, the motives, that generate a particular type of behavior.</p>

	<p>2.Maximization itself implies an existence of a structure. Generally speaking, well ordered preferences (transitive and complete) over a given choice set. Hence to maximize something, one has to assume consistency and comparability of alternatives in the first place &#8211; the (5) above. So the standard definition of rational preferences in economics is actually quite parsimonious, at least relative to how other disciplines define rationality. In absolute terms it is not, because:</p>

	<p>3.The &#8220;rational&#8221; in economics refers not to people but to their preferences. Preferences are rational, people &#8230; well, who knows. Which is not a trivial distinction. I might have transitive and complete preferences but that does not automatically imply I &#8220;act&#8221; on them. I think Conchis above is making the same point. And,<br />
4.Your Mathematical Claim smacks of the whole &#8216;Revealed Preference Approach&#8217;, without the revealing part. Not that there&#8217;s anything wrong with that. What&#8217;s wrong with that is to equivocate transitivity with consistency within that approach or in the context of the above definition. Consistency can only be determined if you have more than one observation since it necessarily involves comparing stuff. If you want to judge only a single observed choice, welp, then it&#8217;s gonna be consistent by definition since all you can go by is that choice itself. So in a way, there&#8217;s an intertemporal aspect here &#8211; if you see me doing one thing and then another how can you know whether I&#8217;m an irrational type of guy or whether my preferences have changed in the meantime, while still being complete and transitive. That&#8217;s the basic shortcoming of both the axiomatic approach to &#8220;rationality&#8221; and the mathematical claim above. Both are static. That&#8217;s what motivated Samuelson, though it became pretty obvious that even if you paribus all the ceteris you still can&#8217;t squeeze much out if it.</p>

	<p>I guess these last two points agree with the spirit of the post, although for completely different reasons. And what Game Theory has to do with any of it beats the hell outta me.</p>
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		<title>By: radek</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/10/14/rationality-repost/comment-page-1/#comment-109910</link>
		<dc:creator>radek</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 15 Oct 2005 08:41:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2005/10/14/rationality-repost/#comment-109910</guid>
		<description>&quot;Game Theory always brings up rationality&quot;

Yes, but it’s always brought up by people who don’t know what they’re talking about. Take evolutionary game theory. There’s no rational behavior there, simply because there’s no choice (unless someone wants to argue that a Hawk and a Dove are rational). Some people just do one thing (for whatever reason), some do another (for whatever reason), some strategies survive and some don’t. There’s still the concept of equilibrium, albeit different than standard. 
Non-cooperative game theory in a way is more of an analysis of available strategies than behavior, or decision making. Of course, since economics, whatever else it may do or be, does study “choice” in most applications the “how” of decision making is as important as the “what”. 

Rationality and game theory are NOT necessarily linked by some vital umbilical cord. One is an assumption, which can be relaxed or even dropped, the other simply a tool, a method. It’s like saying that if you own a car, then you can only drive it to Wichita, Kansas and nowhere else. You can drive it lots of places if you’ve got directions and you can use Game Theory in a lot of ways that don&#039;t imply &#039;rationality&#039;. 
If you want to get down on rationality in economics then get down on rationality in economics. Game Theory is just an innocent bystander in that brawl.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>&#8220;Game Theory always brings up rationality&#8221;</p>

	<p>Yes, but it&#8217;s always brought up by people who don&#8217;t know what they&#8217;re talking about. Take evolutionary game theory. There&#8217;s no rational behavior there, simply because there&#8217;s no choice (unless someone wants to argue that a Hawk and a Dove are rational). Some people just do one thing (for whatever reason), some do another (for whatever reason), some strategies survive and some don&#8217;t. There&#8217;s still the concept of equilibrium, albeit different than standard.<br />
Non-cooperative game theory in a way is more of an analysis of available strategies than behavior, or decision making. Of course, since economics, whatever else it may do or be, does study &#8220;choice&#8221; in most applications the &#8220;how&#8221; of decision making is as important as the &#8220;what&#8221;.</p>

	<p>Rationality and game theory are <span class="caps">NOT</span> necessarily linked by some vital umbilical cord. One is an assumption, which can be relaxed or even dropped, the other simply a tool, a method. It&#8217;s like saying that if you own a car, then you can only drive it to Wichita, Kansas and nowhere else. You can drive it lots of places if you&#8217;ve got directions and you can use Game Theory in a lot of ways that don&#8217;t imply &#8216;rationality&#8217;.<br />
If you want to get down on rationality in economics then get down on rationality in economics. Game Theory is just an innocent bystander in that brawl.</p>
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		<title>By: Chris S</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/10/14/rationality-repost/comment-page-1/#comment-109902</link>
		<dc:creator>Chris S</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 15 Oct 2005 04:28:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2005/10/14/rationality-repost/#comment-109902</guid>
		<description>I&#039;d say, think twice about using Bayes&#039; theorem in any case where you don&#039;t have a well defined chance set up .  You don&#039;t always have objectively based priors, and when you don&#039;t some of us are rather skeptical of using Bayes&#039; theorem.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>I&#8217;d say, think twice about using Bayes&#8217; theorem in any case where you don&#8217;t have a well defined chance set up .  You don&#8217;t always have objectively based priors, and when you don&#8217;t some of us are rather skeptical of using Bayes&#8217; theorem.</p>
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		<title>By: roger</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/10/14/rationality-repost/comment-page-1/#comment-109901</link>
		<dc:creator>roger</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 15 Oct 2005 04:16:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2005/10/14/rationality-repost/#comment-109901</guid>
		<description>To me -- and this is perhaps eccentric and nutty -- the problem is in accepting, naively, the idea that there is an individual out there, about whom we can say, such and such is acting rationally, making choices, etc. Not that there isn&#039;t an individual, but until we know the role of the individual, we won&#039;t understand the game in which he or she has standing. This week&#039;s Refco collapse is a good example. The story is that the chief executive at the firm decides that he is going to make up an outstanding debt to the company of 450 million dollars. He pays it back, and chaos ensues. The company is in a death spiral,  he gets arrested, and all because the act is perceived through a grid of roles in which it doesn&#039;t make sense that he should be in the position where he feels he has to cough up 450 million dollars. 

What is rational, here, is relative to the role that Bennett is playing. On the one hand, he is a debtor to the company, on the other hand, he is the chief executive officer of the company. In the latter position he guides the company into being acquired, in the former position he takes an ugly debt off the company&#039;s books. 

Now, it seems to me that game theory equates the individual with the role of one player at one game asserting a strategy that leads to an optimal advantage. But in reality, every game determines roles for the players, and sometimes superimposes different roles. Which is why starting off with a simple model that segregates and boxes information -- as in the prisoner&#039;s dilemma   -- doesn&#039;t model the way a role is usually played. And that means that the deviations from the models of game theory are hard to model within the theory, even retrospectively.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>To me&#8212;and this is perhaps eccentric and nutty&#8212;the problem is in accepting, naively, the idea that there is an individual out there, about whom we can say, such and such is acting rationally, making choices, etc. Not that there isn&#8217;t an individual, but until we know the role of the individual, we won&#8217;t understand the game in which he or she has standing. This week&#8217;s Refco collapse is a good example. The story is that the chief executive at the firm decides that he is going to make up an outstanding debt to the company of 450 million dollars. He pays it back, and chaos ensues. The company is in a death spiral,  he gets arrested, and all because the act is perceived through a grid of roles in which it doesn&#8217;t make sense that he should be in the position where he feels he has to cough up 450 million dollars.</p>

	<p>What is rational, here, is relative to the role that Bennett is playing. On the one hand, he is a debtor to the company, on the other hand, he is the chief executive officer of the company. In the latter position he guides the company into being acquired, in the former position he takes an ugly debt off the company&#8217;s books.</p>

	<p>Now, it seems to me that game theory equates the individual with the role of one player at one game asserting a strategy that leads to an optimal advantage. But in reality, every game determines roles for the players, and sometimes superimposes different roles. Which is why starting off with a simple model that segregates and boxes information&#8212;as in the prisoner&#8217;s dilemma  &#8212;doesn&#8217;t model the way a role is usually played. And that means that the deviations from the models of game theory are hard to model within the theory, even retrospectively.</p>
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		<title>By: John Quiggin</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/10/14/rationality-repost/comment-page-1/#comment-109886</link>
		<dc:creator>John Quiggin</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 14 Oct 2005 23:02:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2005/10/14/rationality-repost/#comment-109886</guid>
		<description>&quot; Out of idle Friday curiosity John, which set of attributes in your list do you believe are more generally accurate when attempting to describe the actual behaviour of individuals and markets?&quot;

Speaking specifically of market behavior, I&#039;d say mostly: emotional, intuitive, self-interested, materialistic and logically consistent.

Logical consistency arises not because people are logical but because they adopt heuristics that avoid things like intransitivity.

Another way of viewing the contrast between game theory and standard microeconomics is that standard micro usually works OK as long as people are rational on average. Game theory often requires everyone to be perfectly rational.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>&#8221; Out of idle Friday curiosity John, which set of attributes in your list do you believe are more generally accurate when attempting to describe the actual behaviour of individuals and markets?&#8221;</p>

	<p>Speaking specifically of market behavior, I&#8217;d say mostly: emotional, intuitive, self-interested, materialistic and logically consistent.</p>

	<p>Logical consistency arises not because people are logical but because they adopt heuristics that avoid things like intransitivity.</p>

	<p>Another way of viewing the contrast between game theory and standard microeconomics is that standard micro usually works OK as long as people are rational on average. Game theory often requires everyone to be perfectly rational.</p>
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		<title>By: Daniel</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/10/14/rationality-repost/comment-page-1/#comment-109861</link>
		<dc:creator>Daniel</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 14 Oct 2005 18:40:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2005/10/14/rationality-repost/#comment-109861</guid>
		<description>Bayes&#039; theorem *is* universally applicable in any context where it makes sense to count probabilities at all (which is IMO fewer situations than you&#039;d think).  What is almost always wrong is to use Bayes&#039; theorem in combination with a flat, symmetrical loss function over errors.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Bayes&#8217; theorem <strong>is</strong> universally applicable in any context where it makes sense to count probabilities at all (which is <span class="caps">IMO</span> fewer situations than you&#8217;d think).  What is almost always wrong is to use Bayes&#8217; theorem in combination with a flat, symmetrical loss function over errors.</p>
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		<title>By: Jonathan</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2005/10/14/rationality-repost/comment-page-1/#comment-109853</link>
		<dc:creator>Jonathan</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 14 Oct 2005 18:25:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2005/10/14/rationality-repost/#comment-109853</guid>
		<description>Brendan, I really don&#039;t see it that way.  Game theoretic models ask the question: if you have a particular set of strategies at your disposal in a particular situation, what ought (&quot;normative alert&quot;) you do?  If, faced with a sufficiently similar situation in the real world, people behave differently, there are several possibilities:  they don&#039;t see the choice space as you see it, they don&#039;t have the same objective you do, or they are taking an action which, had they but known how to behave, would have done them better by their own lights.  The first two are standard problems with all models, namely, that they are only approximations to reality.  In this, economics is no different than physics, except that their models cover an unchanging underlying reality which allows more precision than the messiness we poor social scientists are left to observe.

In the third objection, though, game theory actually has something to teach us.  My pithy annalysis would come from an actual game (although in this case a game against nature) blackjack.  A &quot;game-theoretic&quot; analysis of blackjack tells you how to play the game.  That can be useful even if few players play that way.  The goal is certainly not a predictive model of how actual players play blackjack.  Such a model might be interesting, but for very different reasons.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Brendan, I really don&#8217;t see it that way.  Game theoretic models ask the question: if you have a particular set of strategies at your disposal in a particular situation, what ought (&#8220;normative alert&#8221;) you do?  If, faced with a sufficiently similar situation in the real world, people behave differently, there are several possibilities:  they don&#8217;t see the choice space as you see it, they don&#8217;t have the same objective you do, or they are taking an action which, had they but known how to behave, would have done them better by their own lights.  The first two are standard problems with all models, namely, that they are only approximations to reality.  In this, economics is no different than physics, except that their models cover an unchanging underlying reality which allows more precision than the messiness we poor social scientists are left to observe.</p>

	<p>In the third objection, though, game theory actually has something to teach us.  My pithy annalysis would come from an actual game (although in this case a game against nature) blackjack.  A &#8220;game-theoretic&#8221; analysis of blackjack tells you how to play the game.  That can be useful even if few players play that way.  The goal is certainly not a predictive model of how actual players play blackjack.  Such a model might be interesting, but for very different reasons.</p>
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