Comments on: Iraq Votes http://crookedtimber.org/2005/12/15/iraq-votes/ Out of the crooked timber of humanity, no straight thing was ever made Sat, 26 May 2012 19:21:53 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.2 By: california_reality_check http://crookedtimber.org/2005/12/15/iraq-votes/comment-page-1/#comment-130036 california_reality_check Fri, 16 Dec 2005 17:54:43 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2005/12/15/iraq-votes/#comment-130036 mpowell: "most people"? How many Iraqi, Muslim or Arabs have you been exposed to? Really. Just curious. mpowell: “most people”? How many Iraqi, Muslim or Arabs have you been exposed to? Really. Just curious.

]]> By: mpowell http://crookedtimber.org/2005/12/15/iraq-votes/comment-page-1/#comment-130032 mpowell Fri, 16 Dec 2005 17:22:45 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2005/12/15/iraq-votes/#comment-130032 Brendan, Are you serious? I guess if you're working from the assumption that Iran's and the US's motivation in Iraq is the same then what we're doing is terribly wrong. Its just that I think this claim is absurd, and most people agree. Brendan,

Are you serious? I guess if you’re working from the assumption that Iran’s and the US’s motivation in Iraq is the same then what we’re doing is terribly wrong. Its just that I think this claim is absurd, and most people agree.

]]> By: Next step: political action committees | Cosmic Variance http://crookedtimber.org/2005/12/15/iraq-votes/comment-page-1/#comment-130025 Next step: political action committees | Cosmic Variance Fri, 16 Dec 2005 16:51:41 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2005/12/15/iraq-votes/#comment-130025 [...] The best news is that the Sunnis turned out in large numbers, indicating a willingness to join the new government as full participants. How smoothly that will go remains to be seen; some prognostications at Crooked Timber by Kieran Healy and Daniel Davies. Regardless, an historic occasion, hopefully the first of many in the region. [...] [...] The best news is that the Sunnis turned out in large numbers, indicating a willingness to join the new government as full participants. How smoothly that will go remains to be seen; some prognostications at Crooked Timber by Kieran Healy and Daniel Davies. Regardless, an historic occasion, hopefully the first of many in the region. [...]

]]> By: soru http://crookedtimber.org/2005/12/15/iraq-votes/comment-page-1/#comment-129868 soru Fri, 16 Dec 2005 11:09:47 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2005/12/15/iraq-votes/#comment-129868 But it’s a gorilla and political war As a point of information, there are 6 billion humans and only 600 gorillas, and strong as they are, few if any of the gorillas even know how to use guns. Don't want to spoil any current films for you, but that is only gonna end one way. soru But it’s a gorilla and political war

As a point of information, there are 6 billion humans and only 600 gorillas, and strong as they are, few if any of the gorillas even know how to use guns.

Don’t want to spoil any current films for you, but that is only gonna end one way.

soru

]]> By: Crooked Timber » » More Iraq punditry … http://crookedtimber.org/2005/12/15/iraq-votes/comment-page-1/#comment-129866 Crooked Timber » » More Iraq punditry … Fri, 16 Dec 2005 09:55:00 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2005/12/15/iraq-votes/#comment-129866 [...] Anyway, the rundown they give on the Iraqi elections is excellent and has certainly cleared my thoughts up substantially. (see here for what they looked like when they were unclear). I now think I know enough to make a few predictions about the elections, and if you say that with enough attitude on the word “think” then you’ll realize why The Economist is a dangerous drug that needs to be kept out of the hands of slightly tipsy businessmen on trains. Kieran talks a lot of sense below, but I like making specific predictions and then learning about the underlying process from analyzing how I went wrong[2]. So here goes. My big tip for the Iraqi elections is; bet on Allawi. Annoyingly, tradesports aren’t running a book on the Iraqi elections this time, but in any case, I think that people are assuming too much that the United Iraqi Alliance (= SCIRI + Dawa + Sadrists) will win it and underestimating the chances of Allawi being able to put together a broad, secular coalition of exactly the sort that we in the West would presumably like to see. [...] [...] Anyway, the rundown they give on the Iraqi elections is excellent and has certainly cleared my thoughts up substantially. (see here for what they looked like when they were unclear). I now think I know enough to make a few predictions about the elections, and if you say that with enough attitude on the word “think” then you’ll realize why The Economist is a dangerous drug that needs to be kept out of the hands of slightly tipsy businessmen on trains. Kieran talks a lot of sense below, but I like making specific predictions and then learning about the underlying process from analyzing how I went wrong[2]. So here goes. My big tip for the Iraqi elections is; bet on Allawi. Annoyingly, tradesports aren’t running a book on the Iraqi elections this time, but in any case, I think that people are assuming too much that the United Iraqi Alliance (= SCIRI + Dawa + Sadrists) will win it and underestimating the chances of Allawi being able to put together a broad, secular coalition of exactly the sort that we in the West would presumably like to see. [...]

]]> By: vasi http://crookedtimber.org/2005/12/15/iraq-votes/comment-page-1/#comment-129857 vasi Fri, 16 Dec 2005 06:05:06 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2005/12/15/iraq-votes/#comment-129857 Kieran, It's interesting that you worry that post-election coalition negotiations will further delegitimize the Iraqi government. I feel that they will actually be good! The previous Iraqi parliament had troublesome negotiations because of the single very large party, and the 2/3 threshold necessary to govern. It was clear from the start that the winning coalition could only be a Shiite-Kurd alliance. This time around, the predictions I'm seeing show a less dominant Shiite Alliance list, and only 1/2 the seats are required to govern (though 2/3 for a constitutional amendment). It seems likely that there will be several potentially viable coalitions after the election. This makes long bogged-down negotiations less likely, and the resulting coalition will hopefully involve more compromise. Of course, it's possible that when the election results become available, we end up again with a single large party, and a government that wants constitution-amending powers. But here's hoping things work out better this time! Kieran,

It’s interesting that you worry that post-election coalition negotiations will further delegitimize the Iraqi government. I feel that they will actually be good!

The previous Iraqi parliament had troublesome negotiations because of the single very large party, and the 2/3 threshold necessary to govern. It was clear from the start that the winning coalition could only be a Shiite-Kurd alliance.

This time around, the predictions I’m seeing show a less dominant Shiite Alliance list, and only 1/2 the seats are required to govern (though 2/3 for a constitutional amendment). It seems likely that there will be several potentially viable coalitions after the election. This makes long bogged-down negotiations less likely, and the resulting coalition will hopefully involve more compromise.

Of course, it’s possible that when the election results become available, we end up again with a single large party, and a government that wants constitution-amending powers. But here’s hoping things work out better this time!

]]> By: california_reality_check http://crookedtimber.org/2005/12/15/iraq-votes/comment-page-1/#comment-129834 california_reality_check Thu, 15 Dec 2005 23:28:49 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2005/12/15/iraq-votes/#comment-129834 And furthermore - I used to live two miles from the 1st MEF in Oceanside. I love those guys. They will go anywhere and kill anyone for the US. They are the best. We are tired of having them come home in body bags. SPC Pat Tillman said "You know, this war is so fucking illegal." And furthermore – I used to live two miles from the 1st MEF in Oceanside. I love those guys. They will go anywhere and kill anyone for the US. They are the best. We are tired of having them come home in body bags. SPC Pat Tillman said “You know, this war is so fucking illegal.”

]]> By: Brendan http://crookedtimber.org/2005/12/15/iraq-votes/comment-page-1/#comment-129828 Brendan Thu, 15 Dec 2005 22:25:14 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2005/12/15/iraq-votes/#comment-129828 mpowell there is currently a large foreign force in Iraq that is acting above and beyond the democratic control of the elected Iraqi government. It bombs and kills with impunity, and takes orders from a foreign power. Now if I was to say the foreign power was 'Iran': i take it you would immediately agree with me that this is completely incompatible with democracy and democratic values. And yet if I was to say that this foreign force was the American/British army, you would (presumably) change your mind. Why? mpowell

there is currently a large foreign force in Iraq that is acting above and beyond the democratic control of the elected Iraqi government. It bombs and kills with impunity, and takes orders from a foreign power.

Now if I was to say the foreign power was ‘Iran’: i take it you would immediately agree with me that this is completely incompatible with democracy and democratic values. And yet if I was to say that this foreign force was the American/British army, you would (presumably) change your mind.

Why?

]]> By: california_reality_check http://crookedtimber.org/2005/12/15/iraq-votes/comment-page-1/#comment-129824 california_reality_check Thu, 15 Dec 2005 22:20:46 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2005/12/15/iraq-votes/#comment-129824 Well, no that is not correct. We shouldn't have gone there in the first place and shouldn't be there now. It is not militarily possible to do more without terrible sacrifices. Too high a price. No question we can control the battlefield in a conventional sense. But it's a gorilla and political war. It will only get worse for us if we stay. Rep. Murtha's plan is reasonable at this point. No really good options now except when you are in a hole stop digging. Most people wanted to believe our leaders. They were wrong about almost everything. Not worth another life in my opinion. You are entitled to yours. That's what makes this country great. Well, no that is not correct. We shouldn’t have gone there in the first place and shouldn’t be there now. It is not militarily possible to do more without terrible sacrifices. Too high a price. No question we can control the battlefield in a conventional sense. But it’s a gorilla and political war. It will only get worse for us if we stay. Rep. Murtha’s plan is reasonable at this point. No really good options now except when you are in a hole stop digging. Most people wanted to believe our leaders. They were wrong about almost everything. Not worth another life in my opinion. You are entitled to yours. That’s what makes this country great.

]]> By: mpowell http://crookedtimber.org/2005/12/15/iraq-votes/comment-page-1/#comment-129820 mpowell Thu, 15 Dec 2005 21:55:48 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2005/12/15/iraq-votes/#comment-129820 california_reality_check: What I meant was that you hope the administration regards the election as the kind of event that signals the troops should come home for no other reason than that you want them home as soon as possible. Is that correct? california_reality_check:
What I meant was that you hope the administration regards the election as the kind of event that signals the troops should come home for no other reason than that you want them home as soon as possible. Is that correct?

]]> By: california_reality_check http://crookedtimber.org/2005/12/15/iraq-votes/comment-page-1/#comment-129817 california_reality_check Thu, 15 Dec 2005 21:19:44 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2005/12/15/iraq-votes/#comment-129817 Kvetch:There is no telling what these bloodthirsty bastards will do. Maybe it will take an invasion of Syria or Iran for the administration to get their fill of blood. Won't that be special? Kvetch:There is no telling what these bloodthirsty bastards will do. Maybe it will take an invasion of Syria or Iran for the administration to get their fill of blood. Won’t that be special?

]]> By: Uncle Kvetch http://crookedtimber.org/2005/12/15/iraq-votes/comment-page-1/#comment-129815 Uncle Kvetch Thu, 15 Dec 2005 21:01:45 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2005/12/15/iraq-votes/#comment-129815 <i>I just want the administration to believe it has won.</i> Next stop, Damascus. <i>All aboard!</i> Be careful what you wish for, CRC. Especially with these people. I just want the administration to believe it has won.

Next stop, Damascus. All aboard!

Be careful what you wish for, CRC. Especially with these people.

]]> By: california_reality_check http://crookedtimber.org/2005/12/15/iraq-votes/comment-page-1/#comment-129814 california_reality_check Thu, 15 Dec 2005 20:36:05 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2005/12/15/iraq-votes/#comment-129814 Okay, but you see, that is what YOU would ask not what Bush would ask. If you can, try to think like him. Let's say God told you it is the right thing to do. The same thing with the Presidency. You have been brought up to respect force all your life and to trust only those who think like you do. You would ask only that they do your bidding and that you trust them and that you think they will do their best according to your Christian value system. If you have a chance check the Rockridge Institute and George Lakoff's discussion regarding cognitive linguistics and how Republicans think. Okay, but you see, that is what YOU would ask not what Bush would ask. If you can, try to think like him. Let’s say God told you it is the right thing to do. The same thing with the Presidency. You have been brought up to respect force all your life and to trust only those who think like you do. You would ask only that they do your bidding and that you trust them and that you think they will do their best according to your Christian value system. If you have a chance check the Rockridge Institute and George Lakoff’s discussion regarding cognitive linguistics and how Republicans think.

]]> By: Grand Moff Texan http://crookedtimber.org/2005/12/15/iraq-votes/comment-page-1/#comment-129813 Grand Moff Texan Thu, 15 Dec 2005 20:08:15 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2005/12/15/iraq-votes/#comment-129813 CRC: sorry, my four questions were to be asked of an Iraqi "government," if formed, to see if it was anything more than a prop for American political campaigns. . CRC: sorry, my four questions were to be asked of an Iraqi “government,” if formed, to see if it was anything more than a prop for American political campaigns.
.

]]> By: california_reality_check http://crookedtimber.org/2005/12/15/iraq-votes/comment-page-1/#comment-129812 california_reality_check Thu, 15 Dec 2005 20:03:27 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2005/12/15/iraq-votes/#comment-129812 Well, no that's not what I am thinking at all. The troops should begin to come out NOW. NOW! John Murtha's plan. I just want the administration to somehow believe that we have won so that can happen. The US has screwed this up royally. Make no mistake about it we are going to pay for it. Not one more American life. Well, no that’s not what I am thinking at all. The troops should begin to come out NOW. NOW! John Murtha’s plan. I just want the administration to somehow believe that we have won so that can happen. The US has screwed this up royally. Make no mistake about it we are going to pay for it. Not one more American life.

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