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	<title>Comments on: The greater generation ?</title>
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	<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2006/02/04/the-greater-generation/</link>
	<description>Out of the crooked timber of humanity, no straight thing was ever made</description>
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		<title>By: jayann</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2006/02/04/the-greater-generation/comment-page-1/#comment-143090</link>
		<dc:creator>jayann</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 06 Feb 2006 21:34:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2006/02/04/the-greater-generation/#comment-143090</guid>
		<description>&lt;i&gt;It almost goes without saying that we cannot separately identify age, period, and cohort effects,&lt;/i&gt;

I think we can (sometimes) distinguish between age (life-cycle) effects and political generational (one kind of cohort) effects; I&#039;d say changes in voting behaviour among older people in the UK speak to a political generational effect.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p><i>It almost goes without saying that we cannot separately identify age, period, and cohort effects,</i></p>

	<p>I think we can (sometimes) distinguish between age (life-cycle) effects and political generational (one kind of cohort) effects; I&#8217;d say changes in voting behaviour among older people in the UK speak to a political generational effect.</p>
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		<title>By: Martin James</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2006/02/04/the-greater-generation/comment-page-1/#comment-142910</link>
		<dc:creator>Martin James</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 06 Feb 2006 04:21:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2006/02/04/the-greater-generation/#comment-142910</guid>
		<description>I take it that John Quiggin doesn&#039;t find dancing to be a very serious part of his worldview.

Although there are certainly age, class and gender components to the types of dancing, in the USA at least, the generational effect is overwhelming.

My silent generation father and mother would describe to me (a tail end Joneser or late baby-boomer) 20 years later how deeply they felt the change they saw from their generation when chaperoning a dance in California in 1962.

Needless to say...they have never recovered.

Quiggan&#039;s critique sloopy social science seems to apply to all of soical science: that is: it sucks at predicting change.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>I take it that John Quiggin doesn&#8217;t find dancing to be a very serious part of his worldview.</p>

	<p>Although there are certainly age, class and gender components to the types of dancing, in the <span class="caps">USA</span> at least, the generational effect is overwhelming.</p>

	<p>My silent generation father and mother would describe to me (a tail end Joneser or late baby-boomer) 20 years later how deeply they felt the change they saw from their generation when chaperoning a dance in California in 1962.</p>

	<p>Needless to say&#8230;they have never recovered.</p>

	<p>Quiggan&#8217;s critique sloopy social science seems to apply to all of soical science: that is: it sucks at predicting change.</p>
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		<title>By: mss</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2006/02/04/the-greater-generation/comment-page-1/#comment-142902</link>
		<dc:creator>mss</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 06 Feb 2006 03:10:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2006/02/04/the-greater-generation/#comment-142902</guid>
		<description>It almost goes without saying that we cannot separately identify age, period, and cohort effects, so which we think are important is often a matter of  interpretation.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>It almost goes without saying that we cannot separately identify age, period, and cohort effects, so which we think are important is often a matter of  interpretation.</p>
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		<title>By: Dons Blog</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2006/02/04/the-greater-generation/comment-page-1/#comment-142901</link>
		<dc:creator>Dons Blog</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 06 Feb 2006 02:30:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2006/02/04/the-greater-generation/#comment-142901</guid>
		<description>At 46 I would be a Joneser, not a boomer. We were those that graduated to the despair of the oil shortages and commodity market crash. If you see an ad that starts &quot;You deserve this credit card&quot; it&#039;s aimed at us, we&#039;ve always felt unfulfilled. And I&#039;ve got to think those graduating now must feel the same way after the promise of the dot.com boom and the excess of the 90s.

Other than in marketing and sociology, these labels mean little other than to label and allegedly predict behavior, just as we use jew, mick, chinese, Indian, and a lot of other biased and bigoted labels.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>At 46 I would be a Joneser, not a boomer. We were those that graduated to the despair of the oil shortages and commodity market crash. If you see an ad that starts &#8220;You deserve this credit card&#8221; it&#8217;s aimed at us, we&#8217;ve always felt unfulfilled. And I&#8217;ve got to think those graduating now must feel the same way after the promise of the dot.com boom and the excess of the 90s.</p>

	<p>Other than in marketing and sociology, these labels mean little other than to label and allegedly predict behavior, just as we use jew, mick, chinese, Indian, and a lot of other biased and bigoted labels.</p>
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		<title>By: jayann</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2006/02/04/the-greater-generation/comment-page-1/#comment-142900</link>
		<dc:creator>jayann</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 06 Feb 2006 01:57:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2006/02/04/the-greater-generation/#comment-142900</guid>
		<description>John, I&#039;d say cohort effects etc. interact; also that changes in voting behaviour here strongly support (provisionally, anyway...) a political-generational effect rather than an age one.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>John, I&#8217;d say cohort effects etc. interact; also that changes in voting behaviour here strongly support (provisionally, anyway&#8230;) a political-generational effect rather than an age one.</p>
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		<title>By: jayann</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2006/02/04/the-greater-generation/comment-page-1/#comment-142888</link>
		<dc:creator>jayann</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 05 Feb 2006 20:26:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2006/02/04/the-greater-generation/#comment-142888</guid>
		<description>I know I&#039;m right, Daniel :) -- but thanks -- I was born in 1946, so follow this stuff avidly...  I&#039;d be interested in the paper; the first house price surge I know of -- when prices doubled in 1 year -- was around 1970, wasn&#039;t it?  I was still a student then. (I&#039;m assuming a link between forecasts and prices, yes.)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>I know I&#8217;m right, Daniel :)&#8212;but thanks&#8212;I was born in 1946, so follow this stuff avidly&#8230;  I&#8217;d be interested in the paper; the first house price surge I know of&#8212;when prices doubled in 1 year&#8212;was around 1970, wasn&#8217;t it?  I was still a student then. (I&#8217;m assuming a link between forecasts and prices, yes.)</p>
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		<title>By: JS Narins</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2006/02/04/the-greater-generation/comment-page-1/#comment-142878</link>
		<dc:creator>JS Narins</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 05 Feb 2006 16:09:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2006/02/04/the-greater-generation/#comment-142878</guid>
		<description>Way Off Topic:

I missed the deadline to post on the Discworld novels.

&quot;Going Postal&quot; is, as neil said, an attack on libertarianism.

&quot;Jingo&quot; is a great attack on, well, unilateral militarism.

&quot;Guards, Guards&quot; includes some great stuff on a police state (including the amazing quote by the dictator to &quot;never build a prison you wouldn&#039;t want to be thrown in.&quot;)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Way Off Topic:</p>

	<p>I missed the deadline to post on the Discworld novels.</p>

	<p>&#8220;Going Postal&#8221; is, as neil said, an attack on libertarianism.</p>

	<p>&#8220;Jingo&#8221; is a great attack on, well, unilateral militarism.</p>

	<p>&#8220;Guards, Guards&#8221; includes some great stuff on a police state (including the amazing quote by the dictator to &#8220;never build a prison you wouldn&#8217;t want to be thrown in.&#8221;)</p>
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		<title>By: garymar</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2006/02/04/the-greater-generation/comment-page-1/#comment-142876</link>
		<dc:creator>garymar</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 05 Feb 2006 15:27:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2006/02/04/the-greater-generation/#comment-142876</guid>
		<description>George W Bush, Tom Delay, and Jack Abramhoff are all part of MY cohort, and God I wish it wasn&#039;t true. Their values seem to be the exact opposite of mine.

&#039;Hippies&#039; and computers: it&#039;s true that Bill Gates started at a very high level, and then took off from there into the stratosphere. His parents were part of the local Seattle elite, and as a boy he was comfortable around the prominent businessmen and politicians who showed up at his parents&#039; parties. That&#039;s also why he got an early exposure to computers: through the pull of influential parents, his private school got a connection to a local mainframe, something very unlikely to happen in a public school.

But didn&#039;t the &#039;hippie&#039; generation have something to do with fueling the computer homebrew culture out of which microcomputers arose? Apple Computer and other companies rose out of that culture, which was not at all commercially oriented. Gates saw the business opportunities this presented, and jumped on it with both hands. Does anyone know of any solid research done on this?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>George W Bush, Tom Delay, and Jack Abramhoff are all part of MY cohort, and God I wish it wasn&#8217;t true. Their values seem to be the exact opposite of mine.</p>

	<p>&#8216;Hippies&#8217; and computers: it&#8217;s true that Bill Gates started at a very high level, and then took off from there into the stratosphere. His parents were part of the local Seattle elite, and as a boy he was comfortable around the prominent businessmen and politicians who showed up at his parents&#8217; parties. That&#8217;s also why he got an early exposure to computers: through the pull of influential parents, his private school got a connection to a local mainframe, something very unlikely to happen in a public school.</p>

	<p>But didn&#8217;t the &#8216;hippie&#8217; generation have something to do with fueling the computer homebrew culture out of which microcomputers arose? Apple Computer and other companies rose out of that culture, which was not at all commercially oriented. Gates saw the business opportunities this presented, and jumped on it with both hands. Does anyone know of any solid research done on this?</p>
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		<title>By: Aidan Kehoe</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2006/02/04/the-greater-generation/comment-page-1/#comment-142870</link>
		<dc:creator>Aidan Kehoe</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 05 Feb 2006 14:23:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2006/02/04/the-greater-generation/#comment-142870</guid>
		<description>Walt Pohl, #9
&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;i&gt;Aidan: Your link is evidence against the notion of generational psychology. As the link would have it, once upon a time everyone, regardless of generation, thought you could overcome trauma by forgetting it. Now everyone, regardless of generation, thinks that trauma permanently scars you.&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt; Where &quot;everyone&quot; is the chattering classes, and if they don&#039;t vary with time, I do wonder how any social change happens.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Walt Pohl, #9<br />
<blockquote><i>Aidan: Your link is evidence against the notion of generational psychology. As the link would have it, once upon a time everyone, regardless of generation, thought you could overcome trauma by forgetting it. Now everyone, regardless of generation, thinks that trauma permanently scars you.</i></blockquote> Where &#8220;everyone&#8221; is the chattering classes, and if they don&#8217;t vary with time, I do wonder how any social change happens.</p>
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		<title>By: Z</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2006/02/04/the-greater-generation/comment-page-1/#comment-142868</link>
		<dc:creator>Z</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 05 Feb 2006 13:08:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2006/02/04/the-greater-generation/#comment-142868</guid>
		<description>John #20
The importance of cohortal effects may differ from country to country. Louis Chauvel&#039;s &quot;Destin des générations&quot; argues quite persuavisely that cohort had a crucial effect on social structures in France (perhaps the greater effect of cohort in France comes from the importance of the State in defining one&#039;s opportunity to acces jobs like medical doctor or engineer). Of course, his study bears no ressemblance with the usual &quot;generation game&quot;.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>John #20<br />
The importance of cohortal effects may differ from country to country. Louis Chauvel&#8217;s &#8220;Destin des g&#233;n&#233;rations&#8221; argues quite persuavisely that cohort had a crucial effect on social structures in France (perhaps the greater effect of cohort in France comes from the importance of the State in defining one&#8217;s opportunity to acces jobs like medical doctor or engineer). Of course, his study bears no ressemblance with the usual &#8220;generation game&#8221;.</p>
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		<title>By: Daniel</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2006/02/04/the-greater-generation/comment-page-1/#comment-142867</link>
		<dc:creator>Daniel</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 05 Feb 2006 12:53:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2006/02/04/the-greater-generation/#comment-142867</guid>
		<description>Jayann is right about two booms.  I&#039;ll dig up a paper from SSRN which suggests that you can construct house price forecasts out of this fact, but it will be later this week.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Jayann is right about two booms.  I&#8217;ll dig up a paper from <span class="caps">SSRN</span> which suggests that you can construct house price forecasts out of this fact, but it will be later this week.</p>
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		<title>By: Peter</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2006/02/04/the-greater-generation/comment-page-1/#comment-142866</link>
		<dc:creator>Peter</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 05 Feb 2006 12:33:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2006/02/04/the-greater-generation/#comment-142866</guid>
		<description>Bad Jim -- whatever else one may say about Bill Gates, he was no hippy.  I would say that most of &lt;i&gt;&quot;the computer culture that undergirds the modern world&quot;&lt;/i&gt; was due to people with the same business or scientific ambitions as their organization-man fathers.  And somehow I doubt that the US Military was employing hippies when it funded the early days of the Internet.  

Well, apart from Herman Kahn, that is.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Bad Jim&#8212;whatever else one may say about Bill Gates, he was no hippy.  I would say that most of <i>&#8220;the computer culture that undergirds the modern world&#8221;</i> was due to people with the same business or scientific ambitions as their organization-man fathers.  And somehow I doubt that the <span class="caps">US </span>Military was employing hippies when it funded the early days of the Internet.</p>

	<p>Well, apart from Herman Kahn, that is.</p>
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		<title>By: bad Jim</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2006/02/04/the-greater-generation/comment-page-1/#comment-142864</link>
		<dc:creator>bad Jim</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 05 Feb 2006 10:47:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2006/02/04/the-greater-generation/#comment-142864</guid>
		<description>I recall reading a piece, possibly by John Perry Barlow, regarding the legacy of the hippies, contending that they were responsible for most of the computer culture that undergirds the modern world, and most particularly the Internet.

The first computers, and even the first microprocessors, were the products of earlier generations, but the great proportion of the programmers who made them useful were those who came of age when they were introduced.

Boomers like me have only started putting their hands on the levers of power in the last decade. The results so far, at least in the U.S., have veered between mediocre and disastrous, and the future looks grim.

Nevertheless, some remarkably useful work has been done, as demonstrated by the means by which you are reading this.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>I recall reading a piece, possibly by John Perry Barlow, regarding the legacy of the hippies, contending that they were responsible for most of the computer culture that undergirds the modern world, and most particularly the Internet.</p>

	<p>The first computers, and even the first microprocessors, were the products of earlier generations, but the great proportion of the programmers who made them useful were those who came of age when they were introduced.</p>

	<p>Boomers like me have only started putting their hands on the levers of power in the last decade. The results so far, at least in the U.S., have veered between mediocre and disastrous, and the future looks grim.</p>

	<p>Nevertheless, some remarkably useful work has been done, as demonstrated by the means by which you are reading this.</p>
 ]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>By: jayann</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2006/02/04/the-greater-generation/comment-page-1/#comment-142848</link>
		<dc:creator>jayann</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 05 Feb 2006 01:25:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2006/02/04/the-greater-generation/#comment-142848</guid>
		<description>Harry, there were two UK &quot;booms&quot;: immediately post-WWII, and 64.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Harry, there were two <span class="caps">UK </span>&#8220;booms&#8221;: immediately post-WWII, and 64.</p>
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		<title>By: Bro. Bartleby</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2006/02/04/the-greater-generation/comment-page-1/#comment-142838</link>
		<dc:creator>Bro. Bartleby</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 04 Feb 2006 22:10:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2006/02/04/the-greater-generation/#comment-142838</guid>
		<description>Ode to Boomers

#

1944

I was born under the screams of a mushroom filled sky

to the hiss of a thousand locomotives

to the reek of Buchenwald ovens

to the wild-eyed estacy of skeletons dancing in the streets

to the cooing girls gracing aluminum-nosed superfortresses

to the crackling radios and the comforting hum of white refrigerators

to the roar of hot rods and roadsters and coupes

to the ribboned crossbones with skulls donning pink Easter bonnets

to the raised stigmata hands before a heedless world

to the aspen glow of a bonfire in a cowering Berlin

to the fluttering flag on a volcanic isle caught by a gritty Speed Graflex

to the Kilroy that was here and there and everywhere

to the lightning punches of Graziano

and I awoke from the warm watery world to a cry

from lungs invaded by the gasps of a million years. 

--Bro. Bartleby</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Ode to Boomers</p>

	<p>#</p>

	<p>1944</p>

	<p>I was born under the screams of a mushroom filled sky</p>

	<p>to the hiss of a thousand locomotives</p>

	<p>to the reek of Buchenwald ovens</p>

	<p>to the wild-eyed estacy of skeletons dancing in the streets</p>

	<p>to the cooing girls gracing aluminum-nosed superfortresses</p>

	<p>to the crackling radios and the comforting hum of white refrigerators</p>

	<p>to the roar of hot rods and roadsters and coupes</p>

	<p>to the ribboned crossbones with skulls donning pink Easter bonnets</p>

	<p>to the raised stigmata hands before a heedless world</p>

	<p>to the aspen glow of a bonfire in a cowering Berlin</p>

	<p>to the fluttering flag on a volcanic isle caught by a gritty Speed Graflex</p>

	<p>to the Kilroy that was here and there and everywhere</p>

	<p>to the lightning punches of Graziano</p>

	<p>and I awoke from the warm watery world to a cry</p>

	<p>from lungs invaded by the gasps of a million years.<br />
&#8212;Bro. Bartleby</p>
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