Comments on: Hows about them efficient prediction markets? http://crookedtimber.org/2006/03/12/hows-about-them-efficient-prediction-markets/ Out of the crooked timber of humanity, no straight thing was ever made Sat, 26 May 2012 20:43:10 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.2 By: Crooked Timber » » White smoke at the _Economist_ http://crookedtimber.org/2006/03/12/hows-about-them-efficient-prediction-markets/comment-page-1/#comment-148935 Crooked Timber » » White smoke at the _Economist_ Wed, 22 Mar 2006 19:13:02 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/?p=4420#comment-148935 [...] So it looks as though John Micklethwait, currently US editor, is probably going to be the new editor at the Economist; the final decision is due to be announced tomorrow. It’s down to a two man race between him and Ed Carr, and not that many people are betting on Carr ( in contrast to a few days ago, but that’s a different story ). To the surprise of many, Clive Crook didn’t make it to the final two, which is unfortunate in my books – Crook is somewhat conservative for my taste, but also a good journalist who would have made a very decent editor. Ed Carr, from all I’ve heard, would be a good editor too, but things don’t sound good for him. [...] [...] So it looks as though John Micklethwait, currently US editor, is probably going to be the new editor at the Economist; the final decision is due to be announced tomorrow. It’s down to a two man race between him and Ed Carr, and not that many people are betting on Carr ( in contrast to a few days ago, but that’s a different story ). To the surprise of many, Clive Crook didn’t make it to the final two, which is unfortunate in my books – Crook is somewhat conservative for my taste, but also a good journalist who would have made a very decent editor. Ed Carr, from all I’ve heard, would be a good editor too, but things don’t sound good for him. [...]

]]> By: vivian http://crookedtimber.org/2006/03/12/hows-about-them-efficient-prediction-markets/comment-page-1/#comment-147695 vivian Tue, 14 Mar 2006 03:15:17 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/?p=4420#comment-147695 Same thing happened in anticipation of Inspector Morse's first name - Colin Dexter asked (rhetorically?) whether he might place a bet. Maybe he should be the next editor of the Economist. Same thing happened in anticipation of Inspector Morse’s first name – Colin Dexter asked (rhetorically?) whether he might place a bet. Maybe he should be the next editor of the Economist.

]]> By: John Quiggin http://crookedtimber.org/2006/03/12/hows-about-them-efficient-prediction-markets/comment-page-1/#comment-147675 John Quiggin Tue, 14 Mar 2006 00:35:27 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/?p=4420#comment-147675 A win for Carr, now, would be a pretty good result for the smart money/efficient markets hypothesis. A loss, on the other hand, would support the Plain Punters of Ireland view since, presumably, failed manipulation of this kind counts against you. What happened in the Daily Mail case? A win for Carr, now, would be a pretty good result for the smart money/efficient markets hypothesis. A loss, on the other hand, would support the Plain Punters of Ireland view since, presumably, failed manipulation of this kind counts against you. What happened in the Daily Mail case?

]]> By: derrida derider http://crookedtimber.org/2006/03/12/hows-about-them-efficient-prediction-markets/comment-page-1/#comment-147610 derrida derider Mon, 13 Mar 2006 10:03:17 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/?p=4420#comment-147610 Yep, Seth, you're right - the maxim at the racetrack is "Those who know don't say and those who say don't know" Yep, Seth, you’re right – the maxim at the racetrack is “Those who know don’t say and those who say don’t know”

]]> By: Seth Finkelstein http://crookedtimber.org/2006/03/12/hows-about-them-efficient-prediction-markets/comment-page-1/#comment-147595 Seth Finkelstein Mon, 13 Mar 2006 06:38:40 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/?p=4420#comment-147595 Henry: If someone <em>knew</em> who was going to win, would they say so? Or would they say "No, I don't really know, I just put some money on him as a bit of fun, to create some buzz, help out a mate you know." Henry: If someone knew who was going to win, would they say so? Or would they say “No, I don’t really know, I just put some money on him as a bit of fun, to create some buzz, help out a mate you know.”

]]> By: Commenterlein http://crookedtimber.org/2006/03/12/hows-about-them-efficient-prediction-markets/comment-page-1/#comment-147589 Commenterlein Mon, 13 Mar 2006 05:03:48 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/?p=4420#comment-147589 Henry, I didn't even think of this possibility, it didn't occur to me that the relevant decision makers at the Economist might care about the opinions of the Plain Punters of Ireland. Do you really think they do? Henry,
I didn’t even think of this possibility, it didn’t occur to me that the relevant decision makers at the Economist might care about the opinions of the Plain Punters of Ireland. Do you really think they do?

]]> By: Henry http://crookedtimber.org/2006/03/12/hows-about-them-efficient-prediction-markets/comment-page-1/#comment-147587 Henry Mon, 13 Mar 2006 04:53:37 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/?p=4420#comment-147587 Ah but the difference here is that it isn't insider trading - as I understand the process from the FT this weekend, no-one really knows who is going to win - so much as an effort to make Carr seem like a winner b/c he has been anointed by the Plain Punters of Ireland and thus tilt the gossip (and possibly the result) in his favor. Predictive market as self-fulfilling prophecy, basically. Ah but the difference here is that it isn’t insider trading – as I understand the process from the FT this weekend, no-one really knows who is going to win – so much as an effort to make Carr seem like a winner b/c he has been anointed by the Plain Punters of Ireland and thus tilt the gossip (and possibly the result) in his favor. Predictive market as self-fulfilling prophecy, basically.

]]> By: P O'Neill http://crookedtimber.org/2006/03/12/hows-about-them-efficient-prediction-markets/comment-page-1/#comment-147581 P O'Neill Mon, 13 Mar 2006 03:40:22 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/?p=4420#comment-147581 The same thing happened with the betting on Time Magazine's <a href="http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=109&STORY=/www/story/12-03-2005/0004227180&EDATE=" rel="nofollow">Person of the Year</a>. The same thing happened with the betting on Time Magazine’s Person of the Year.

]]> By: Commenterlein http://crookedtimber.org/2006/03/12/hows-about-them-efficient-prediction-markets/comment-page-1/#comment-147580 Commenterlein Mon, 13 Mar 2006 03:34:33 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/?p=4420#comment-147580 I am not really sure whether I would call trading on inside information "manipulation", but that's just semantics. Someone like Justin Wolfers and other advocates of the usefulness of prediction markets cannot really be happy about this - for prediction markets to have the most power, you want insiders to trade, as long as they don't drive most of the liquidity providers (=know-nothings) out of the market. I am not really sure whether I would call trading on inside information “manipulation”, but that’s just semantics.

Someone like Justin Wolfers and other advocates of the usefulness of prediction markets cannot really be happy about this – for prediction markets to have the most power, you want insiders to trade, as long as they don’t drive most of the liquidity providers (=know-nothings) out of the market.

]]>