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	<title>Comments on: Surowiecki and attribution error</title>
	<atom:link href="http://crookedtimber.org/2006/07/28/surowiecki-and-attribution-error/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2006/07/28/surowiecki-and-attribution-error/</link>
	<description>Out of the crooked timber of humanity, no straight thing was ever made</description>
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		<title>By: The Fatal-Flaw Myth &#8212; Micromotives</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2006/07/28/surowiecki-and-attribution-error/comment-page-1/#comment-167019</link>
		<dc:creator>The Fatal-Flaw Myth &#8212; Micromotives</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 01 Aug 2006 22:36:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/?p=4960#comment-167019</guid>
		<description>[...] UPDATE: Over at Crooked Timber, Henry Farrell adds that studies have shown that The Economist has made the same type of errors in evaluating the relative success of different countries over time, as well: This applies not only to judgements about the success of companies, but to judgements about the success of countries. A few years ago, the political scientist Peter Katzenstein went through a couple of decades worth of those special issues that the Economist runs on particular countries for his own amusement. He found that there wasn’t any long term consistency in judgement – a country cited as a model of how to create a thriving economy in one special issue might be cited as a prime example of political dysfunction the next time round, and back in the good books a few years later. This isn’t a problem that’s specific to the Economist; it’s a more general one of how the political wisdom on the sources of economic success is incredibly unstable. A couple of decades ago, the shelves were filled with books on Japan Inc., and nasty xenophobic bestsellers like Michael Crichton’s Rising Sun claiming that Japan was going to gobble up America unless it fought back. Before that, there was a lot of talk about Modell Deutschland as the way forward. Und so weiter. We don’t know very much at all about the root reasons why economies succeed or fail, for some of the reasons that Surowiecki cites. Countries too can happen to be in the right place at the right time, and may find their luck running out unexpectedly when conditions change. [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>[...] <span class="caps">UPDATE</span>: Over at Crooked Timber, Henry Farrell adds that studies have shown that The Economist has made the same type of errors in evaluating the relative success of different countries over time, as well: This applies not only to judgements about the success of companies, but to judgements about the success of countries. A few years ago, the political scientist Peter Katzenstein went through a couple of decades worth of those special issues that the Economist runs on particular countries for his own amusement. He found that there wasn&#8217;t any long term consistency in judgement &#8211; a country cited as a model of how to create a thriving economy in one special issue might be cited as a prime example of political dysfunction the next time round, and back in the good books a few years later. This isn&#8217;t a problem that&#8217;s specific to the Economist; it&#8217;s a more general one of how the political wisdom on the sources of economic success is incredibly unstable. A couple of decades ago, the shelves were filled with books on Japan Inc., and nasty xenophobic bestsellers like Michael Crichton&#8217;s Rising Sun claiming that Japan was going to gobble up America unless it fought back. Before that, there was a lot of talk about Modell Deutschland as the way forward. Und so weiter. We don&#8217;t know very much at all about the root reasons why economies succeed or fail, for some of the reasons that Surowiecki cites. Countries too can happen to be in the right place at the right time, and may find their luck running out unexpectedly when conditions change. [...]</p>
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		<title>By: james</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2006/07/28/surowiecki-and-attribution-error/comment-page-1/#comment-166764</link>
		<dc:creator>james</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 31 Jul 2006 14:34:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/?p=4960#comment-166764</guid>
		<description>Rumor has it that the direct government funding of Airbus is being eliminated.  The loss of this funding and the technical problems on the new plane are causing major issues with the bottom line.  

Since neither the US nor the EU is adhering to their WTO obligations, this may be irrelevant.  The US and EU have WTO treaties that specifically disallow the direct government funding that airbus is receiving.  The EU has argued that Boeings military contracts amount to the same thing.  The flaw with this reasoning is that all military contracts to any company would have to be disallowed.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Rumor has it that the direct government funding of Airbus is being eliminated.  The loss of this funding and the technical problems on the new plane are causing major issues with the bottom line.</p>

	<p>Since neither the US nor the EU is adhering to their <span class="caps">WTO</span> obligations, this may be irrelevant.  The US and EU have <span class="caps">WTO</span> treaties that specifically disallow the direct government funding that airbus is receiving.  The EU has argued that Boeings military contracts amount to the same thing.  The flaw with this reasoning is that all military contracts to any company would have to be disallowed.</p>
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		<title>By: yet another chris</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2006/07/28/surowiecki-and-attribution-error/comment-page-1/#comment-166739</link>
		<dc:creator>yet another chris</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 31 Jul 2006 05:50:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/?p=4960#comment-166739</guid>
		<description>WRT the 10 business persons ...
I think that you can convince yourself that luck does play a very significant role in success.  Just ask yourself how many business persons you know who opened and ran a successful business.  Then expanded to a second, third, .... site.  How many had one or more of their additional sites fail? 
I have a family friend who opened a restaurant and it did extremely well.  So, he opened a second, then a third and forth.  Then, one of them failed. 
Even if you take the position that he over-extended himself,  there had to be an element of chance/luck which &quot;Picked&quot; the restaurant that failed.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p><span class="caps">WRT</span> the 10 business persons &#8230;<br />
I think that you can convince yourself that luck does play a very significant role in success.  Just ask yourself how many business persons you know who opened and ran a successful business.  Then expanded to a second, third, &#8230;. site.  How many had one or more of their additional sites fail?<br />
I have a family friend who opened a restaurant and it did extremely well.  So, he opened a second, then a third and forth.  Then, one of them failed.<br />
Even if you take the position that he over-extended himself,  there had to be an element of chance/luck which &#8220;Picked&#8221; the restaurant that failed.</p>
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		<title>By: a different chris</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2006/07/28/surowiecki-and-attribution-error/comment-page-1/#comment-166690</link>
		<dc:creator>a different chris</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 30 Jul 2006 14:44:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/?p=4960#comment-166690</guid>
		<description>Oh, I actually meant to reply to somebody on a serious sub-thread:

Being a wet-behind-the-ears engineer in the &#039;80s, I can tell you that in addition to all the good observations in #23, on this side of the Pacific the spectre of &quot;Japan Inc&quot; was used to scare the bejezus out of not just blue-collar workers but the salaried white-collar class.

Think you should have a bigger paycheck given company products?? &quot;Japanese engineers are so much cheaper you better be happy with what you got&quot;.  Think you need a bit more time off?  &quot;Japanese engineers work until 8:00 at night, be happy you go home at 5:00.   Uh, except for tonight this thing really needs to get done, call me at this resturaunt* if you have any questions&quot;.

*Pre cell phone so they couldn&#039;t pretend they weren&#039;t just goofing off.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Oh, I actually meant to reply to somebody on a serious sub-thread:</p>

	<p>Being a wet-behind-the-ears engineer in the &#8216;80s, I can tell you that in addition to all the good observations in #23, on this side of the Pacific the spectre of &#8220;Japan Inc&#8221; was used to scare the bejezus out of not just blue-collar workers but the salaried white-collar class.</p>

	<p>Think you should have a bigger paycheck given company products?? &#8220;Japanese engineers are so much cheaper you better be happy with what you got&#8221;.  Think you need a bit more time off?  &#8220;Japanese engineers work until 8:00 at night, be happy you go home at 5:00.   Uh, except for tonight this thing really needs to get done, call me at this resturaunt* if you have any questions&#8221;.</p>

	<p>*Pre cell phone so they couldn&#8217;t pretend they weren&#8217;t just goofing off.</p>
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		<title>By: a different chris</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2006/07/28/surowiecki-and-attribution-error/comment-page-1/#comment-166688</link>
		<dc:creator>a different chris</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 30 Jul 2006 14:38:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/?p=4960#comment-166688</guid>
		<description>&gt;Or are you now going to argue that the bottom decile looking for 1,000 calories of food per day is comparable to a bottom decile looking for a 2nd car and air conditioning?


Er, compare the bottom decile in, say, Germany to the bottom decile in the US, dude.  Even with SS, without which it would get really ugly.  But &quot;of course&quot; (no decent proofs ever given) we&#039;d have even more growth.

And when you finally figure out where you&#039;ve gone wrong please get back to us.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>>Or are you now going to argue that the bottom decile looking for 1,000 calories of food per day is comparable to a bottom decile looking for a 2nd car and air conditioning?</p>


	<p>Er, compare the bottom decile in, say, Germany to the bottom decile in the US, dude.  Even with SS, without which it would get really ugly.  But &#8220;of course&#8221; (no decent proofs ever given) we&#8217;d have even more growth.</p>

	<p>And when you finally figure out where you&#8217;ve gone wrong please get back to us.</p>
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		<title>By: John Emerson</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2006/07/28/surowiecki-and-attribution-error/comment-page-1/#comment-166650</link>
		<dc:creator>John Emerson</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 30 Jul 2006 02:46:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/?p=4960#comment-166650</guid>
		<description>Michael: This was somewhat of a thought ewxperiment, but I was just thinking that if 10 people go into the restaurant business and one flourishes (a realistic proportion), to an extent it could be thought of as the survival of one gambler at the others&#039; expense. 

Alternatively, perhaps the failed entrepreneurs could be regarded as having donated their labor and capital as a sacrificial offering to the God of entrepreneurship. 

I haven&#039;t seen a lot of discussion of the role of failed entrepreneurs in our society, but obviously it&#039;s a big one, and generally a favorable one, which is not rewarded.  So they can be regarded as self-sacrificing altruists whose altruism, while not entirely voluntary, is predictable.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Michael: This was somewhat of a thought ewxperiment, but I was just thinking that if 10 people go into the restaurant business and one flourishes (a realistic proportion), to an extent it could be thought of as the survival of one gambler at the others&#8217; expense.</p>

	<p>Alternatively, perhaps the failed entrepreneurs could be regarded as having donated their labor and capital as a sacrificial offering to the God of entrepreneurship.</p>

	<p>I haven&#8217;t seen a lot of discussion of the role of failed entrepreneurs in our society, but obviously it&#8217;s a big one, and generally a favorable one, which is not rewarded.  So they can be regarded as self-sacrificing altruists whose altruism, while not entirely voluntary, is predictable.</p>
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		<title>By: Michael Sullivan</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2006/07/28/surowiecki-and-attribution-error/comment-page-1/#comment-166625</link>
		<dc:creator>Michael Sullivan</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 29 Jul 2006 20:58:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/?p=4960#comment-166625</guid>
		<description>26 -- as a business owner myself and one who deals primarily with small business customers, I&#039;ve formed the opinion that business success is much more like skilled gambling success than most people want to believe.  Your skill weights the odds in your favour (or disfavour), and then you roll the dice.

That said, if you know your stuff and have enough capital reserve, you can withstand the variance.  But it takes a *lot* of capital to be sure of withstanding the variance of projects that make a meaningful return.  Enough so that you don&#039;t really *need* to work to earn money.  You can just provide your capital to somebody else in the stock market.

I don&#039;t see the point to pooling resources with zero sum gambling as you suggest though.  I suppose if you really need 10 life savings to capitalize some business it might make some sense.

What would be a lot better is 10 entrepreneurs putting all their money into a pool, starting 10 different businesses and then splitting the profits.  That way, if they are all really good, chances are that one company does quite well and pays for the many failures a few times over.  The problem is that you&#039;d have to have 10 different people who all have good ideas and the drive to make a good shot at commercializing them, and all of them have to trust that all the others are good enough to swap risk with.  That seems very hard to do.

It would make a lot more sense for some people with capital to &lt;a href=&quot;http://ycombinator.com/&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;specialize in this sort of funding&lt;/a&gt;.


Michael</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>26&#8212;as a business owner myself and one who deals primarily with small business customers, I&#8217;ve formed the opinion that business success is much more like skilled gambling success than most people want to believe.  Your skill weights the odds in your favour (or disfavour), and then you roll the dice.</p>

	<p>That said, if you know your stuff and have enough capital reserve, you can withstand the variance.  But it takes a <strong>lot</strong> of capital to be sure of withstanding the variance of projects that make a meaningful return.  Enough so that you don&#8217;t really <strong>need</strong> to work to earn money.  You can just provide your capital to somebody else in the stock market.</p>

	<p>I don&#8217;t see the point to pooling resources with zero sum gambling as you suggest though.  I suppose if you really need 10 life savings to capitalize some business it might make some sense.</p>

	<p>What would be a lot better is 10 entrepreneurs putting all their money into a pool, starting 10 different businesses and then splitting the profits.  That way, if they are all really good, chances are that one company does quite well and pays for the many failures a few times over.  The problem is that you&#8217;d have to have 10 different people who all have good ideas and the drive to make a good shot at commercializing them, and all of them have to trust that all the others are good enough to swap risk with.  That seems very hard to do.</p>

	<p>It would make a lot more sense for some people with capital to <a href="http://ycombinator.com/" rel="nofollow">specialize in this sort of funding</a>.</p>


	<p>Michael</p>
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		<title>By: jet</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2006/07/28/surowiecki-and-attribution-error/comment-page-1/#comment-166620</link>
		<dc:creator>jet</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 29 Jul 2006 20:27:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/?p=4960#comment-166620</guid>
		<description>bi,
I&#039;m certainly confused about your point.  Are you saying that modern GDP numbers aren&#039;t inflationary adjusted?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>bi,<br />
I&#8217;m certainly confused about your point.  Are you saying that modern <span class="caps">GDP</span> numbers aren&#8217;t inflationary adjusted?</p>
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		<title>By: John Emerson</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2006/07/28/surowiecki-and-attribution-error/comment-page-1/#comment-166617</link>
		<dc:creator>John Emerson</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 29 Jul 2006 20:10:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/?p=4960#comment-166617</guid>
		<description>Has anyone ever built a capital-accumulation model based entirely on luck? 

Suppose 10 entrepreneurs take their life savings and go into competition, except instead of starting businesses they put the money into gambling or duelling. Eventually one entrepreneur has 10 life savings, which would be a big profit and a healthy chunk of dough. Then he starts his business.

This isn&#039;t a realistic model at all of course, I don&#039;t claim that, but in businesses like the restaurant business success has a major, major factor of luck, and unsuccessful businesses often give a sort of subsidy to unsuccessful businesses.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Has anyone ever built a capital-accumulation model based entirely on luck?</p>

	<p>Suppose 10 entrepreneurs take their life savings and go into competition, except instead of starting businesses they put the money into gambling or duelling. Eventually one entrepreneur has 10 life savings, which would be a big profit and a healthy chunk of dough. Then he starts his business.</p>

	<p>This isn&#8217;t a realistic model at all of course, I don&#8217;t claim that, but in businesses like the restaurant business success has a major, major factor of luck, and unsuccessful businesses often give a sort of subsidy to unsuccessful businesses.</p>
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		<title>By: Wax Banks</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2006/07/28/surowiecki-and-attribution-error/comment-page-1/#comment-166599</link>
		<dc:creator>Wax Banks</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 29 Jul 2006 16:55:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/?p=4960#comment-166599</guid>
		<description>&lt;a href=&quot;http://markschmitt.typepad.com/decembrist/2006/03/straightline_pr.html&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Mark Schmitt&lt;/a&gt; has spoken of this structural phenomenon w/r/t political punditry and &#039;straight-line projections.&#039; If you&#039;re not reading Schmitt, by the way, he&#039;s a sane and sensible commentator on liberal/Dem politics and policy, less focused on day-to-day minutiae (e.g. mini-scandals) than Josh Marshall but similar in disposition.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p><a href="http://markschmitt.typepad.com/decembrist/2006/03/straightline_pr.html" rel="nofollow">Mark Schmitt</a> has spoken of this structural phenomenon w/r/t political punditry and &#8216;straight-line projections.&#8217; If you&#8217;re not reading Schmitt, by the way, he&#8217;s a sane and sensible commentator on liberal/Dem politics and policy, less focused on day-to-day minutiae (e.g. mini-scandals) than Josh Marshall but similar in disposition.</p>
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		<title>By: bi</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2006/07/28/surowiecki-and-attribution-error/comment-page-1/#comment-166598</link>
		<dc:creator>bi</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 29 Jul 2006 16:52:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/?p=4960#comment-166598</guid>
		<description>jet&#039;s totally confused.

A GDP figure is meaningless if you don&#039;t also consider the inflation rate. What&#039;s so impressive about a doubling of one&#039;s salary if rice costs thrice as much as before?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>jet&#8217;s totally confused.</p>

	<p><span class="caps">A GDP</span> figure is meaningless if you don&#8217;t also consider the inflation rate. What&#8217;s so impressive about a doubling of one&#8217;s salary if rice costs thrice as much as before?</p>
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		<title>By: tzs</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2006/07/28/surowiecki-and-attribution-error/comment-page-1/#comment-166596</link>
		<dc:creator>tzs</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 29 Jul 2006 16:42:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/?p=4960#comment-166596</guid>
		<description>I remember being in Japan when the whole Japan Inc. thing came around.  Those of us gaijin working in Japanese companies or the Japanese government were passing around Crichton&#039;s book, saying &quot;you&#039;ve got to read THIS!&quot; and laughing our asses off.

Corporate groups on all sides find it a very efficient form of lobbying to Warn About the Foreign Bogyman, helped on by the myriads of economists and policy makers who are happy to churn out whatever opinion is most desired.  For many years I watched a tit-for-tat volley between Japan and the US when it came to the semiconductor industry:  the US &quot;reacted&quot; to the Japanese push by forming SEMATECH, the Japanese policy makers then churned out reports breathlessly warning how Japan was going to go under due to SEMATECH and how Japan needed a National Project in return, then the US reacted to that....</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>I remember being in Japan when the whole Japan Inc. thing came around.  Those of us gaijin working in Japanese companies or the Japanese government were passing around Crichton&#8217;s book, saying &#8220;you&#8217;ve got to read <span class="caps">THIS</span>!&#8221; and laughing our asses off.</p>

	<p>Corporate groups on all sides find it a very efficient form of lobbying to Warn About the Foreign Bogyman, helped on by the myriads of economists and policy makers who are happy to churn out whatever opinion is most desired.  For many years I watched a tit-for-tat volley between Japan and the US when it came to the semiconductor industry:  the <span class="caps">US </span>&#8220;reacted&#8221; to the Japanese push by forming <span class="caps">SEMATECH</span>, the Japanese policy makers then churned out reports breathlessly warning how Japan was going to go under due to <span class="caps">SEMATECH</span> and how Japan needed a National Project in return, then the US reacted to that&#8230;.</p>
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		<title>By: jet</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2006/07/28/surowiecki-and-attribution-error/comment-page-1/#comment-166593</link>
		<dc:creator>jet</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 29 Jul 2006 14:46:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/?p=4960#comment-166593</guid>
		<description>That should be 

Many factors ⊆ Single Factor</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>That should be</p>

	<p>Many factors &#8838; Single Factor</p>
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		<title>By: jet</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2006/07/28/surowiecki-and-attribution-error/comment-page-1/#comment-166592</link>
		<dc:creator>jet</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 29 Jul 2006 14:44:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/?p=4960#comment-166592</guid>
		<description>Adam Kotsko,

Single factor ⊆ Many factors.

Simple enough for you?  

Or are you now going to argue that the bottom decile looking for 1,000 calories of food per day is comparable to a bottom decile looking for a 2nd car and air conditioning?

Snark away tough guy.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Adam Kotsko,</p>

	<p>Single factor &#8838; Many factors.</p>

	<p>Simple enough for you?</p>

	<p>Or are you now going to argue that the bottom decile looking for 1,000 calories of food per day is comparable to a bottom decile looking for a 2nd car and air conditioning?</p>

	<p>Snark away tough guy.</p>
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		<title>By: JR</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2006/07/28/surowiecki-and-attribution-error/comment-page-1/#comment-166586</link>
		<dc:creator>JR</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 29 Jul 2006 12:32:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/?p=4960#comment-166586</guid>
		<description>Boeing is the US&#039;s second largest defense contractor.  Its revenues from military contracting are greater than those from commercial airplane sales.  So tell me again, which of these companies operates in a commercial marketplace and which one is dependent on political lobbying and government spending?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Boeing is the US&#8217;s second largest defense contractor.  Its revenues from military contracting are greater than those from commercial airplane sales.  So tell me again, which of these companies operates in a commercial marketplace and which one is dependent on political lobbying and government spending?</p>
 ]]></content:encoded>
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