<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><rss version="2.0"
	xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/"
	xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/"
	xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom"
	xmlns:sy="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/syndication/"
		>
<channel>
	<title>Comments on: Demography is Still Not Destiny</title>
	<atom:link href="http://crookedtimber.org/2006/08/24/demography-is-still-not-destiny/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2006/08/24/demography-is-still-not-destiny/</link>
	<description>Out of the crooked timber of humanity, no straight thing was ever made</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Mon, 13 Feb 2012 09:04:17 +0000</lastBuildDate>
	<sy:updatePeriod>hourly</sy:updatePeriod>
	<sy:updateFrequency>1</sy:updateFrequency>
	<generator>http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1</generator>
	<item>
		<title>By: SamChevre</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2006/08/24/demography-is-still-not-destiny/comment-page-1/#comment-170128</link>
		<dc:creator>SamChevre</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 28 Aug 2006 13:45:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2006/08/24/demography-is-still-not-destiny/#comment-170128</guid>
		<description>Jon H,

You are apparently totally unfamiliar with welfare rules (the old AFDC rules).  It was almost impossible for married couples to qualify.

So no, Limbaugh quotes on &quot;welfare queens&quot; don&#039;t help prove that the family &quot;has to be white and affluent&quot;.  The family in question has to be (to repeat) &quot;married, raising their biological children&quot;--which plenty of non-whites are, and plenty of working-class people are, and about which I have, I repeat, never heard any complaints in the religiously conservative world.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Jon H,</p>

	<p>You are apparently totally unfamiliar with welfare rules (the old <span class="caps">AFDC</span> rules).  It was almost impossible for married couples to qualify.</p>

	<p>So no, Limbaugh quotes on &#8220;welfare queens&#8221; don&#8217;t help prove that the family &#8220;has to be white and affluent&#8221;.  The family in question has to be (to repeat) &#8220;married, raising their biological children&#8221;&#8212;which plenty of non-whites are, and plenty of working-class people are, and about which I have, I repeat, never heard any complaints in the religiously conservative world.</p>
 ]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Jon H</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2006/08/24/demography-is-still-not-destiny/comment-page-1/#comment-169908</link>
		<dc:creator>Jon H</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 27 Aug 2006 00:22:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2006/08/24/demography-is-still-not-destiny/#comment-169908</guid>
		<description>I wrote: &quot;number of children…starts to look extremely selfish at 3 or so&quot;

Sorry, what I was thinking was &quot;selfish *over* 3 or so.&quot; My best friend has 3 (including twins), I have a sister and brother, etc. 3 is pretty normal. &quot;or so&quot; means 4 would usually be okay, but half a dozen is pushing it. More than six and you&#039;re definitely getting into vanity and self-aggrandizement, IMHO. More than 10, and you&#039;re into hoarding and it&#039;s probably due to having your reason damaged by religion or illness.

The historical reasons for having big families don&#039;t exist anymore in the first world. Kids are unlikely to die young, and they aren&#039;t needed as extra hands to work the farm. It made sense when you never knew how many kids would survive to adulthood.

At the very least, people who want a big family could *adopt* number 4, 5, and 6.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>I wrote: &#8220;number of children&#8230;starts to look extremely selfish at 3 or so&#8221;</p>

	<p>Sorry, what I was thinking was &#8220;selfish <strong>over</strong> 3 or so.&#8221; My best friend has 3 (including twins), I have a sister and brother, etc. 3 is pretty normal. &#8220;or so&#8221; means 4 would usually be okay, but half a dozen is pushing it. More than six and you&#8217;re definitely getting into vanity and self-aggrandizement, <span class="caps">IMHO</span>. More than 10, and you&#8217;re into hoarding and it&#8217;s probably due to having your reason damaged by religion or illness.</p>

	<p>The historical reasons for having big families don&#8217;t exist anymore in the first world. Kids are unlikely to die young, and they aren&#8217;t needed as extra hands to work the farm. It made sense when you never knew how many kids would survive to adulthood.</p>

	<p>At the very least, people who want a big family could <strong>adopt</strong> number 4, 5, and 6.</p>
 ]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Jon H</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2006/08/24/demography-is-still-not-destiny/comment-page-1/#comment-169905</link>
		<dc:creator>Jon H</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 27 Aug 2006 00:14:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2006/08/24/demography-is-still-not-destiny/#comment-169905</guid>
		<description>samchevre writes: &quot;that is false and slanderously so. I would challenge you to provide even one quote to back it up.&quot;

Slanderous? You seem to have blotted from your memory all the Rush Limbaugh-quality complaints about welfare queens being paid to have more children.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>samchevre writes: &#8220;that is false and slanderously so. I would challenge you to provide even one quote to back it up.&#8221;</p>

	<p>Slanderous? You seem to have blotted from your memory all the Rush Limbaugh-quality complaints about welfare queens being paid to have more children.</p>
 ]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Mary Catherine Moran</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2006/08/24/demography-is-still-not-destiny/comment-page-1/#comment-169861</link>
		<dc:creator>Mary Catherine Moran</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 26 Aug 2006 02:58:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2006/08/24/demography-is-still-not-destiny/#comment-169861</guid>
		<description>&lt;blockquote&gt;One is that it’s always been with us: someone’s always worried that group x are breeding like flies.&lt;/blockquote&gt;

Good point.  For example, back in the days of the Roman empire, you had these Phillip-Longman-in-a-toga types fretting and fussing about how the decadent Romans were being outbred by those hardy barbarians from the north, who might even overtake the seat of empire, if given half the chance, and...Oh, wait.  I guess that &#039;triumph of barbarism and religion&#039; thing really did happen, back in that day.  

Just saying.

Demography is not destiny, to be sure.  But at the same time, there is not much destiny without demography, which is to say, without a demographic base.  In the long term, it&#039;s a numbers game.  If you can&#039;t reproduce yourself (and I&#039;m not talking about genes here, I&#039;m talking about the reproduction of culture), you&#039;re out of the game but good.  It&#039;s been known to happen.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p><blockquote>One is that it&#8217;s always been with us: someone&#8217;s always worried that group x are breeding like flies.</blockquote></p>

	<p>Good point.  For example, back in the days of the Roman empire, you had these Phillip-Longman-in-a-toga types fretting and fussing about how the decadent Romans were being outbred by those hardy barbarians from the north, who might even overtake the seat of empire, if given half the chance, and&#8230;Oh, wait.  I guess that &#8216;triumph of barbarism and religion&#8217; thing really did happen, back in that day.</p>

	<p>Just saying.</p>

	<p>Demography is not destiny, to be sure.  But at the same time, there is not much destiny without demography, which is to say, without a demographic base.  In the long term, it&#8217;s a numbers game.  If you can&#8217;t reproduce yourself (and I&#8217;m not talking about genes here, I&#8217;m talking about the reproduction of culture), you&#8217;re out of the game but good.  It&#8217;s been known to happen.</p>
 ]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: stuart</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2006/08/24/demography-is-still-not-destiny/comment-page-1/#comment-169761</link>
		<dc:creator>stuart</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 25 Aug 2006 16:07:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2006/08/24/demography-is-still-not-destiny/#comment-169761</guid>
		<description>Doesn&#039;t that rather depend whether your aim is to be &#039;on the winning side&#039; or &#039;in a better society&#039; (by your own measure)?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Doesn&#8217;t that rather depend whether your aim is to be &#8216;on the winning side&#8217; or &#8216;in a better society&#8217; (by your own measure)?</p>
 ]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: eudoxis</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2006/08/24/demography-is-still-not-destiny/comment-page-1/#comment-169755</link>
		<dc:creator>eudoxis</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 25 Aug 2006 15:10:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2006/08/24/demography-is-still-not-destiny/#comment-169755</guid>
		<description>The strongest correlation with voting gaps is race/ethnicity, followed by religion.  At least one of those is not altered by the dynamic of rebellion against one&#039;s parents.  Plus, the fear of monolythic voting blocks breeding like flies is independent of the birth rate or voting patterns.  Further, the moving target objection is irrelevant unless the polarized electorate starts voting the same and is no longer polarized, an unlikely prospect.  What matters is where the demographics fall on the polarized range, not where that range finds itself in space.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>The strongest correlation with voting gaps is race/ethnicity, followed by religion.  At least one of those is not altered by the dynamic of rebellion against one&#8217;s parents.  Plus, the fear of monolythic voting blocks breeding like flies is independent of the birth rate or voting patterns.  Further, the moving target objection is irrelevant unless the polarized electorate starts voting the same and is no longer polarized, an unlikely prospect.  What matters is where the demographics fall on the polarized range, not where that range finds itself in space.</p>
 ]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: trotstky</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2006/08/24/demography-is-still-not-destiny/comment-page-1/#comment-169752</link>
		<dc:creator>trotstky</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 25 Aug 2006 14:58:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2006/08/24/demography-is-still-not-destiny/#comment-169752</guid>
		<description>I find my world is filled with the not-at-all-religious offspring of devout Mormon families.  So the conservatives may have more kids, but just enough flee the fold to keep the political scales balanced.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>I find my world is filled with the not-at-all-religious offspring of devout Mormon families.  So the conservatives may have more kids, but just enough flee the fold to keep the political scales balanced.</p>
 ]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Peter Levine</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2006/08/24/demography-is-still-not-destiny/comment-page-1/#comment-169750</link>
		<dc:creator>Peter Levine</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 25 Aug 2006 14:49:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2006/08/24/demography-is-still-not-destiny/#comment-169750</guid>
		<description>&lt;i&gt;It’s arrant nonsense to say that people’s beliefs are always in lockstep with their parents’&lt;/i&gt;

&quot;Always&quot; would indeed be too strong. But people do tend to follow in their parents&#039; political footsteps. Kent Jennings and Richard Niemi have followed a cohort of people who were high school seniors in 1965 and also interviewed their parents and kids. They have found substantial transmission of parents&#039; party identifications to children over these three generations. The transmission was not perfect, and individuals tended to diverge more from their parents as they aged. Further, the actual content of what the two major parties stood for changed during the period of this study. Nevertheless, the degree to which parents&#039; political identities predicted their childrens&#039; and grand-childrens&#039; identities was striking.

That pattern could, however, be counteracted by &quot;differentiation&quot; and other social processes.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p><i>It&#8217;s arrant nonsense to say that people&#8217;s beliefs are always in lockstep with their parents&#8217;</i></p>

	<p>&#8220;Always&#8221; would indeed be too strong. But people do tend to follow in their parents&#8217; political footsteps. Kent Jennings and Richard Niemi have followed a cohort of people who were high school seniors in 1965 and also interviewed their parents and kids. They have found substantial transmission of parents&#8217; party identifications to children over these three generations. The transmission was not perfect, and individuals tended to diverge more from their parents as they aged. Further, the actual content of what the two major parties stood for changed during the period of this study. Nevertheless, the degree to which parents&#8217; political identities predicted their childrens&#8217; and grand-childrens&#8217; identities was striking.</p>

	<p>That pattern could, however, be counteracted by &#8220;differentiation&#8221; and other social processes.</p>
 ]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: mds</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2006/08/24/demography-is-still-not-destiny/comment-page-1/#comment-169745</link>
		<dc:creator>mds</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 25 Aug 2006 14:28:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2006/08/24/demography-is-still-not-destiny/#comment-169745</guid>
		<description>&lt;i&gt;And I have lived almost all my life in the conservative Christian world, which is the biggest part of the family-friendly world—and every congregation I have been part of, in 3 different denominations, has been racially mixed and included interracial couples.&lt;/i&gt;

As usual, the plural of anecdote is not data, but I have also lived almost all my life in the conservative Christian world, and have found it often still rife with Bob Jones-style bigotry.  My parents remain hostile to interracial couples, because the Bible says the races shouldn&#039;t mix...somewhere.  They and many of their ilk amongst whom I grew up were ripe for President Reagan&#039;s vicious attacks on welfare queens and their Cadillacs.  Perhaps I missed the part where American fundamentalist Christians repudiated the racism of their Greatest President Ever.  Then again, Pat Buchanan is a self-identified conservative Christian, and he has yet again been quite explicit that it&#039;s &lt;i&gt;white&lt;/i&gt; people who need to breed more.

And I still say that when the &quot;greatest part&quot; of the &quot;family-friendly&quot; world spews vitriol over families where the parents are the same sex, and rabidly seeks to criminalize them, your definition of &quot;family friendly&quot; is ever so slightly off.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p><i>And I have lived almost all my life in the conservative Christian world, which is the biggest part of the family-friendly world&#8212;and every congregation I have been part of, in 3 different denominations, has been racially mixed and included interracial couples.</i></p>

	<p>As usual, the plural of anecdote is not data, but I have also lived almost all my life in the conservative Christian world, and have found it often still rife with Bob Jones-style bigotry.  My parents remain hostile to interracial couples, because the Bible says the races shouldn&#8217;t mix&#8230;somewhere.  They and many of their ilk amongst whom I grew up were ripe for President Reagan&#8217;s vicious attacks on welfare queens and their Cadillacs.  Perhaps I missed the part where American fundamentalist Christians repudiated the racism of their Greatest President Ever.  Then again, Pat Buchanan is a self-identified conservative Christian, and he has yet again been quite explicit that it&#8217;s <i>white</i> people who need to breed more.</p>

	<p>And I still say that when the &#8220;greatest part&#8221; of the &#8220;family-friendly&#8221; world spews vitriol over families where the parents are the same sex, and rabidly seeks to criminalize them, your definition of &#8220;family friendly&#8221; is ever so slightly off.</p>
 ]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: SamChevre</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2006/08/24/demography-is-still-not-destiny/comment-page-1/#comment-169735</link>
		<dc:creator>SamChevre</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 25 Aug 2006 13:56:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2006/08/24/demography-is-still-not-destiny/#comment-169735</guid>
		<description>Jon H,

Re #17--&lt;i&gt;many allegedly “family friendly” types will go apoplectic if the couple with 5 kids is not white and affluent&lt;/i&gt;--that is false and slanderously so.  I would challenge you to provide even one quote to back it up.

Most married SAHM&#039;s are from the working class--families with less than the median income (that&#039;s census data and easily available).  And I have lived almost all my life in the conservative Christian world, which is the biggest part of the family-friendly world--and every congregation I have been part of, in 3 different denominations, has been racially mixed and included interracial couples.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Jon H,</p>

	<p>Re #17&#8212;<i>many allegedly &#8220;family friendly&#8221; types will go apoplectic if the couple with 5 kids is not white and affluent</i>&#8212;that is false and slanderously so.  I would challenge you to provide even one quote to back it up.</p>

	<p>Most married <span class="caps">SAHM</span>&#8217;s are from the working class&#8212;families with less than the median income (that&#8217;s census data and easily available).  And I have lived almost all my life in the conservative Christian world, which is the biggest part of the family-friendly world&#8212;and every congregation I have been part of, in 3 different denominations, has been racially mixed and included interracial couples.</p>
 ]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: paul</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2006/08/24/demography-is-still-not-destiny/comment-page-1/#comment-169728</link>
		<dc:creator>paul</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 25 Aug 2006 11:29:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2006/08/24/demography-is-still-not-destiny/#comment-169728</guid>
		<description>jon h, 
Until those liberal scientists devise a way of producing offspring in units of 0.1 child, 3 children is the smallest number that ensures the replacement rate is met, hardly selfish.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>jon h,<br />
Until those liberal scientists devise a way of producing offspring in units of 0.1 child, 3 children is the smallest number that ensures the replacement rate is met, hardly selfish.</p>
 ]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Half Sigma</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2006/08/24/demography-is-still-not-destiny/comment-page-1/#comment-169724</link>
		<dc:creator>Half Sigma</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 25 Aug 2006 10:39:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2006/08/24/demography-is-still-not-destiny/#comment-169724</guid>
		<description>Arthur Brooks is either stupid or has intentionally chosen to mislead. The General Social Survey shows that &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.halfsigma.com/2006/08/democrats_have_.html&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Democrats have more children than Republicans&lt;/a&gt;.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Arthur Brooks is either stupid or has intentionally chosen to mislead. The General Social Survey shows that <a href="http://www.halfsigma.com/2006/08/democrats_have_.html" rel="nofollow">Democrats have more children than Republicans</a>.</p>
 ]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: ajay</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2006/08/24/demography-is-still-not-destiny/comment-page-1/#comment-169721</link>
		<dc:creator>ajay</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 25 Aug 2006 10:15:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2006/08/24/demography-is-still-not-destiny/#comment-169721</guid>
		<description>tj: &quot;Also, no child is fatherless…yet. Give liberal scientists time and Dan Quail’s hellish vision will be fulfilled.&quot;

Fathers die, tj.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>tj: &#8220;Also, no child is fatherless&#8230;yet. Give liberal scientists time and Dan Quail&#8217;s hellish vision will be fulfilled.&#8221;</p>

	<p>Fathers die, tj.</p>
 ]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: turkish bill</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2006/08/24/demography-is-still-not-destiny/comment-page-1/#comment-169720</link>
		<dc:creator>turkish bill</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 25 Aug 2006 09:45:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2006/08/24/demography-is-still-not-destiny/#comment-169720</guid>
		<description>I&#039;d suggest that &#039;hostile to (and sometimes punitive towards)members of non-traditional families&#039; captures the political position that Sam Chevre was trying to pick out. 

Like he says of &#039;family-friendly&#039; , it&#039;s a good shorthand way of picking out a set of fairly easily recognised attitutdes.

I wonder whether it will catch on.

Incidentally, I&#039;m fairly pro-marriage myself, even though I don&#039;t fall inside the designated demographic.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>I&#8217;d suggest that &#8216;hostile to (and sometimes punitive towards)members of non-traditional families&#8217; captures the political position that Sam Chevre was trying to pick out.</p>

	<p>Like he says of &#8216;family-friendly&#8217; , it&#8217;s a good shorthand way of picking out a set of fairly easily recognised attitutdes.</p>

	<p>I wonder whether it will catch on.</p>

	<p>Incidentally, I&#8217;m fairly pro-marriage myself, even though I don&#8217;t fall inside the designated demographic.</p>
 ]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: tj</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2006/08/24/demography-is-still-not-destiny/comment-page-1/#comment-169693</link>
		<dc:creator>tj</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 25 Aug 2006 01:41:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2006/08/24/demography-is-still-not-destiny/#comment-169693</guid>
		<description>Joan&#039;s point makes me realize I may have painted myself into a corner.  I don&#039;t want to limit my criticism of the idea of &quot;family-friendly&quot; conservatives to their exclusion of nontraditional families.  I also take issue with the idea that their policies are friendlier to traditional families.  The social conservative agenda has the same drawbacks for people within heterosexual, legally sanctioned families as it does for those outside of such families.  To the extent that the social conservative agenda acts as cover for fiscal conservatism or libertarianism, it seems to me it is detrimental to all types of families.

I&#039;d also like to distance myself from any sort of criticism of large families.  I don&#039;t care how many kids people have.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Joan&#8217;s point makes me realize I may have painted myself into a corner.  I don&#8217;t want to limit my criticism of the idea of &#8220;family-friendly&#8221; conservatives to their exclusion of nontraditional families.  I also take issue with the idea that their policies are friendlier to traditional families.  The social conservative agenda has the same drawbacks for people within heterosexual, legally sanctioned families as it does for those outside of such families.  To the extent that the social conservative agenda acts as cover for fiscal conservatism or libertarianism, it seems to me it is detrimental to all types of families.</p>

	<p>I&#8217;d also like to distance myself from any sort of criticism of large families.  I don&#8217;t care how many kids people have.</p>
 ]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
</channel>
</rss>

<!-- Performance optimized by W3 Total Cache. Learn more: http://www.w3-edge.com/wordpress-plugins/

Minified using disk: basic
Page Caching using disk: enhanced

Served from: crookedtimber.org @ 2012-02-13 09:09:26 -->
