Comments on: October surprise in Austria http://crookedtimber.org/2006/10/04/october-surprise-in-austria/ Out of the crooked timber of humanity, no straight thing was ever made Sun, 27 May 2012 00:43:58 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.2 By: Eamonn Fitzgerald http://crookedtimber.org/2006/10/04/october-surprise-in-austria/comment-page-1/#comment-174000 Eamonn Fitzgerald Thu, 05 Oct 2006 12:35:52 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2006/10/04/october-surprise-in-austria/#comment-174000 "End of an era looms for far right populist Haider" -- The Guardian, September 28, 2006 "The outcome appears to promise a departure from power for Jorg Haider" -- John Quiggin, October 4, 2006 For once, I get to beat Tim Blair when it comes to spotting a Quigginism “End of an era looms for far right populist Haider”—The Guardian, September 28, 2006

“The outcome appears to promise a departure from power for Jorg Haider”—John Quiggin, October 4, 2006

For once, I get to beat Tim Blair when it comes to spotting a Quigginism

]]> By: finnsense http://crookedtimber.org/2006/10/04/october-surprise-in-austria/comment-page-1/#comment-173946 finnsense Wed, 04 Oct 2006 18:57:57 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2006/10/04/october-surprise-in-austria/#comment-173946 leederick, What? Of course it is not proof on its own but it is evidence in favour of (potentially). The point John was surely making was that this was one of those situations where one might be able to see a difference because of course in most elections, both the crowd and the polls get it right. leederick,

What? Of course it is not proof on its own but it is evidence in favour of (potentially). The point John was surely making was that this was one of those situations where one might be able to see a difference because of course in most elections, both the crowd and the polls get it right.

]]> By: lago http://crookedtimber.org/2006/10/04/october-surprise-in-austria/comment-page-1/#comment-173903 lago Wed, 04 Oct 2006 14:05:56 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2006/10/04/october-surprise-in-austria/#comment-173903 John, you're an economist. Just assume one exists and write the rest of the post. John, you’re an economist. Just assume one exists and write the rest of the post.

]]> By: leederick http://crookedtimber.org/2006/10/04/october-surprise-in-austria/comment-page-1/#comment-173893 leederick Wed, 04 Oct 2006 12:23:37 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2006/10/04/october-surprise-in-austria/#comment-173893 <i>"...if betting markets got it right, that would be pretty strong support for claims about the wisdom of crowds."</i> You'd posted the same thought before, but it's just not true. It's crazy to test alternative A against alternative B by picking examples after the fact where A got it wrong and looking to see if B got it right. Had I tossed a coin I would have had a 50% of getting the result right, but this wouldn't provide 'strong support' for claims about the effectiveness of cleromancy relative to polls. Think about it. The best case scenario is that B beats A. The worst case is that they draw. This 'test' tells you nothing about whether B is better than A, it just tells you that they don't make identical predictions. “…if betting markets got it right, that would be pretty strong support for claims about the wisdom of crowds.”

You’d posted the same thought before, but it’s just not true.

It’s crazy to test alternative A against alternative B by picking examples after the fact where A got it wrong and looking to see if B got it right. Had I tossed a coin I would have had a 50% of getting the result right, but this wouldn’t provide ‘strong support’ for claims about the effectiveness of cleromancy relative to polls.

Think about it. The best case scenario is that B beats A. The worst case is that they draw. This ‘test’ tells you nothing about whether B is better than A, it just tells you that they don’t make identical predictions.

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