Comments on: Statistics and the Scale of Societies http://crookedtimber.org/2006/10/12/statistics-and-the-scale-of-societies/ Out of the crooked timber of humanity, no straight thing was ever made Sun, 22 Nov 2009 15:29:04 -0800 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.6 hourly 1 By: Alas, a blog » Blog Archive » The Great Wall Of China Fallacy http://crookedtimber.org/2006/10/12/statistics-and-the-scale-of-societies/comment-page-3/#comment-175923 Alas, a blog » Blog Archive » The Great Wall Of China Fallacy Tue, 17 Oct 2006 19:11:30 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2006/10/12/statistics-and-the-scale-of-societies/#comment-175923 [...] From Gateway Pundit (with a curtsy to Crooked Timber): What universe are these people living in? [...] [...] From Gateway Pundit (with a curtsy to Crooked Timber): What universe are these people living in? [...]

]]> By: The Great Wall Of China Fallacy « Creative Destruction http://crookedtimber.org/2006/10/12/statistics-and-the-scale-of-societies/comment-page-3/#comment-175922 The Great Wall Of China Fallacy « Creative Destruction Tue, 17 Oct 2006 19:10:06 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2006/10/12/statistics-and-the-scale-of-societies/#comment-175922 [...] From Gateway Pundit (with a curtsy to Crooked Timber): [...] [...] From Gateway Pundit (with a curtsy to Crooked Timber): [...]

]]> By: Ολλανδία, Αρμενία, Ιράκ at Σπιτάκι http://crookedtimber.org/2006/10/12/statistics-and-the-scale-of-societies/comment-page-3/#comment-175510 Ολλανδία, Αρμενία, Ιράκ at Σπιτάκι Sun, 15 Oct 2006 16:44:04 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2006/10/12/statistics-and-the-scale-of-societies/#comment-175510 [...] Ταυτόχρονα, στο Crooked Timber αναλύουν (ξανά — δείτε και 1, 2, 3) το καινούργιο Lancet report για θανάτους στο Ιράκ. Το συμπέρασμα, αν δεν το έχετε ακούσει ήδη, είναι πως έχει πεθάνει πολύς, πολύς κόσμος στο Ιράκ. Το σημερινό τους άρθρο κοιτάει λίγο τα νούμερα από Αμερικάνικους βομβαρδισμούς. Η εικόνα, όπως θα έπρεπε να μας είχε κάνει λιανά και η άλλη “precision”-bombing καμπάνια στο Λίβανο πρόσφατα, δεν είναι πολύ θετική για τους air force generals. [...] [...] Ταυτόχρονα, στο Crooked Timber αναλύουν (ξανά — δείτε και 1, 2, 3) το καινούργιο Lancet report για θανάτους στο Ιράκ. Το συμπέρασμα, αν δεν το έχετε ακούσει ήδη, είναι πως έχει πεθάνει πολύς, πολύς κόσμος στο Ιράκ. Το σημερινό τους άρθρο κοιτάει λίγο τα νούμερα από Αμερικάνικους βομβαρδισμούς. Η εικόνα, όπως θα έπρεπε να μας είχε κάνει λιανά και η άλλη “precision”-bombing καμπάνια στο Λίβανο πρόσφατα, δεν είναι πολύ θετική για τους air force generals. [...]

]]> By: Ragout http://crookedtimber.org/2006/10/12/statistics-and-the-scale-of-societies/comment-page-3/#comment-175348 Ragout Sat, 14 Oct 2006 05:40:20 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2006/10/12/statistics-and-the-scale-of-societies/#comment-175348 Of course I was being sarcastic. In hindsight, I probably should have emphasized that Saddam was still in power in 2002, and used more exclamation points. I decided that D^2 was probably playing along with the joke and saying that of course Ragout knows who would be naive enough to doubt that Iraq normally has 120,000 deaths a year: innumerate right-wing idiots. Or maybe he was calling me a jerk. That's also pretty likely. Of course I was being sarcastic. In hindsight, I probably should have emphasized that Saddam was still in power in 2002, and used more exclamation points.

I decided that D^2 was probably playing along with the joke and saying that of course Ragout knows who would be naive enough to doubt that Iraq normally has 120,000 deaths a year: innumerate right-wing idiots. Or maybe he was calling me a jerk. That’s also pretty likely.

]]> By: Willem van Oranje http://crookedtimber.org/2006/10/12/statistics-and-the-scale-of-societies/comment-page-3/#comment-175347 Willem van Oranje Sat, 14 Oct 2006 05:18:14 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2006/10/12/statistics-and-the-scale-of-societies/#comment-175347 2002 being before the invasion 2002 being before the invasion

]]> By: Donald Johnson http://crookedtimber.org/2006/10/12/statistics-and-the-scale-of-societies/comment-page-3/#comment-175321 Donald Johnson Fri, 13 Oct 2006 20:58:31 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2006/10/12/statistics-and-the-scale-of-societies/#comment-175321 Oh, unless daniel was playing along. Someone should explain that part of the joke to me. Oh, unless daniel was playing along. Someone should explain that part of the joke to me.

]]> By: Donald Johnson http://crookedtimber.org/2006/10/12/statistics-and-the-scale-of-societies/comment-page-3/#comment-175320 Donald Johnson Fri, 13 Oct 2006 20:57:29 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2006/10/12/statistics-and-the-scale-of-societies/#comment-175320 I thought ragout was being funny--he's talking about 2002 and the lack of media reports confirming deaths that year. I suppose if I have to explain it it isn't funny, but I got a chuckle out of it. I thought ragout was being funny—he’s talking about 2002 and the lack of media reports confirming deaths that year.

I suppose if I have to explain it it isn’t funny, but I got a chuckle out of it.

]]> By: Tim Lambert http://crookedtimber.org/2006/10/12/statistics-and-the-scale-of-societies/comment-page-3/#comment-175250 Tim Lambert Fri, 13 Oct 2006 16:27:49 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2006/10/12/statistics-and-the-scale-of-societies/#comment-175250 Tim W, I have a <a href="http://timlambert.org/1997/09/dgu-00047/" rel="nofollow">post on my blog</a> on telescoping (dragging older events into the reference time frame): Also, the NCVS interviews the same household every six months over a three year period. The first interview turns up about 50% more crime than subsequent ones. The NCVS believes this is caused by “telescoping” and discards the first interview. Tim W, I have a post on my blog on telescoping (dragging older events into the reference time frame):

Also, the NCVS interviews the same household every six months over a three year period. The first interview turns up about 50% more crime than subsequent ones. The NCVS believes this is caused by “telescoping” and discards the first interview.

]]> By: engels http://crookedtimber.org/2006/10/12/statistics-and-the-scale-of-societies/comment-page-3/#comment-175241 engels Fri, 13 Oct 2006 15:50:58 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2006/10/12/statistics-and-the-scale-of-societies/#comment-175241 <i>Ragout is a smart guy.</i> Citation, please? Ragout is a smart guy.

Citation, please?

]]> By: lemuel pitkin http://crookedtimber.org/2006/10/12/statistics-and-the-scale-of-societies/comment-page-3/#comment-175230 lemuel pitkin Fri, 13 Oct 2006 15:30:10 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2006/10/12/statistics-and-the-scale-of-societies/#comment-175230 Ragout is a smart guy. One has to assume his comment is sarcasm. Ragout is a smart guy. One has to assume his comment is sarcasm.

]]> By: seriously http://crookedtimber.org/2006/10/12/statistics-and-the-scale-of-societies/comment-page-3/#comment-175166 seriously Fri, 13 Oct 2006 11:19:15 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2006/10/12/statistics-and-the-scale-of-societies/#comment-175166 "Michael O’Hanlon, who runs Brookings’ count, is very sceptical because the study is more than 10x the passive counts. While he has no doubt the passive counts are missing people, he finds it unlikely that they are missing more than 90% of the casualties. I find his argumetn pretty convincing, especially since he spends pretty much all his time thinking about this stuff." Sorry, how is this an argument? “Michael O’Hanlon, who runs Brookings’ count, is very sceptical because the study is more than 10x the passive counts. While he has no doubt the passive counts are missing people, he finds it unlikely that they are missing more than 90% of the casualties. I find his argumetn pretty convincing, especially since he spends pretty much all his time thinking about this stuff.”

Sorry, how is this an argument?

]]> By: Tim Worstall http://crookedtimber.org/2006/10/12/statistics-and-the-scale-of-societies/comment-page-3/#comment-175158 Tim Worstall Fri, 13 Oct 2006 10:05:29 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2006/10/12/statistics-and-the-scale-of-societies/#comment-175158 Oops, sorry, see that's answered in the next thread. Oops, sorry, see that’s answered in the next thread.

]]> By: Tim Worstall http://crookedtimber.org/2006/10/12/statistics-and-the-scale-of-societies/comment-page-3/#comment-175156 Tim Worstall Fri, 13 Oct 2006 10:04:08 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2006/10/12/statistics-and-the-scale-of-societies/#comment-175156 Rather amazing to me that failure of memory (as above, Tim Lambert etc) leads to an overcount of incidences the further back in time one goes. Intuitively one would think it went the other way around, that as memory fades the numbers reported would fall below what actually happened. But as I said, three and four years probably isn't enough time to influence this count substantially, whichever way around the numbers go. One other thing that slightly puzzles me. The researchers report that 87% (or some number similar to that) of the deaths reported directly to the researchers could be backed up by death certificates. Has anyone tried counting the number of death certificates issued and then multiplying by 1/.87 to get another estimate? Rather amazing to me that failure of memory (as above, Tim Lambert etc) leads to an overcount of incidences the further back in time one goes. Intuitively one would think it went the other way around, that as memory fades the numbers reported would fall below what actually happened.

But as I said, three and four years probably isn’t enough time to influence this count substantially, whichever way around the numbers go.

One other thing that slightly puzzles me. The researchers report that 87% (or some number similar to that) of the deaths reported directly to the researchers could be backed up by death certificates.

Has anyone tried counting the number of death certificates issued and then multiplying by 1/.87 to get another estimate?

]]> By: Daniel http://crookedtimber.org/2006/10/12/statistics-and-the-scale-of-societies/comment-page-3/#comment-175131 Daniel Fri, 13 Oct 2006 05:19:36 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2006/10/12/statistics-and-the-scale-of-societies/#comment-175131 ragout, that's pure and simple trolling, because you know very well the answer to that question. ragout, that’s pure and simple trolling, because you know very well the answer to that question.

]]> By: Ragout http://crookedtimber.org/2006/10/12/statistics-and-the-scale-of-societies/comment-page-3/#comment-175122 Ragout Fri, 13 Oct 2006 03:27:30 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2006/10/12/statistics-and-the-scale-of-societies/#comment-175122 As I understand it, the Lancet study claims that there were 120,000 deaths in Iraq in 2002. But this is over 300 a day! Where are the bodies? Where are the press reports! What kind of naive fool would believe this? As I understand it, the Lancet study claims that there were 120,000 deaths in Iraq in 2002. But this is over 300 a day! Where are the bodies? Where are the press reports! What kind of naive fool would believe this?

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