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	<title>Comments on: Parallel universe quiz</title>
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	<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2006/11/06/parallel-universe-quiz/</link>
	<description>Out of the crooked timber of humanity, no straight thing was ever made</description>
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		<title>By: jfleck at inkstain &#187; Blog Archive &#187; The Moon Landing and Climate Change</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2006/11/06/parallel-universe-quiz/comment-page-2/#comment-179230</link>
		<dc:creator>jfleck at inkstain &#187; Blog Archive &#187; The Moon Landing and Climate Change</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 16 Nov 2006 20:27:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2006/11/06/parallel-universe-quiz/#comment-179230</guid>
		<description>[...] John Quiggin threw down the gauntlet last week: Although both global warming denialists and moon landing denialists routinely accuse NASA scientists of fraud, the two groups appear not to have made common cause as yet (Please correct me if I’m wrong). [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>[...] John Quiggin threw down the gauntlet last week: Although both global warming denialists and moon landing denialists routinely accuse <span class="caps">NASA</span> scientists of fraud, the two groups appear not to have made common cause as yet (Please correct me if I&#8217;m wrong). [...]</p>
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		<title>By: aaron</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2006/11/06/parallel-universe-quiz/comment-page-2/#comment-178404</link>
		<dc:creator>aaron</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 11 Nov 2006 00:40:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2006/11/06/parallel-universe-quiz/#comment-178404</guid>
		<description>Thanks Eli.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Thanks Eli.</p>
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		<title>By: Eli Rabett</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2006/11/06/parallel-universe-quiz/comment-page-2/#comment-178363</link>
		<dc:creator>Eli Rabett</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 10 Nov 2006 19:33:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2006/11/06/parallel-universe-quiz/#comment-178363</guid>
		<description>Sorry, I mangled the replyreplyreply link, but you can find all of the V&amp;S you want at http://www.sciencebits.com/ClimateDebate</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Sorry, I mangled the replyreplyreply link, but you can find all of the V&#038;S you want at <a href="http://www.sciencebits.com/ClimateDebate" rel="nofollow">http://www.sciencebits.com/ClimateDebate</a></p>
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		<title>By: Eli Rabett</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2006/11/06/parallel-universe-quiz/comment-page-2/#comment-178357</link>
		<dc:creator>Eli Rabett</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 10 Nov 2006 18:28:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2006/11/06/parallel-universe-quiz/#comment-178357</guid>
		<description>Re Vezier and Shaviv, there is a telling comment by &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~stefan/Publications/Journals/rahmstorf_etal_eos_2004.html&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt; Stefan Rahmstorf &lt;/a&gt; which comes down to VandS get their excellent correlation by manipulating the data in &quot;&quot;creative&quot;&quot; ways.

&lt;blockquote cite=&quot;&quot;&gt;We thus find that there is no significant correlation of the CRF curve from Shaviv’s model and the temperature curve of Veizer, even after one of the four CRF peaks was arbitrarily shifted by 40 m.y. to improve the fit to the temperature curve. There also is no significant correlation between the original meteorite data and the temperature reconstruction. The explained variance claimed by [Shaviv and Veizer, 2003] is the maximum achievable by optimal smoothing of the temperature data and by making several arbitrary adjustments to the cosmic ray data (within their large uncertainty) to line up their peaks with the temperature curve.&lt;/blockquote&gt;

That was one of the nicer comments in an article which was published in EOS, the house newsletter of the American Geophysical Union.  There was a reply &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.agu.org/journals/eo/eo0448/2004EO480004.pdf&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;  by VandS &lt;/a&gt; that is behind the subscription wall )also here a &lt;a href=&quot;www.phys.huji.ac.il/~shaviv/ClimateDebate/RahmReplyReply.pdf&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;further reply to the reply to the reply with the first reply....&lt;/a&gt;  and a &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~stefan/Publications/Journals/rahmstorf_etal_eos_2004.html&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt; rebuttal by Rahmstorf &lt;/a&gt;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Re Vezier and Shaviv, there is a telling comment by <a href="http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~stefan/Publications/Journals/rahmstorf_etal_eos_2004.html" rel="nofollow"> Stefan Rahmstorf </a> which comes down to VandS get their excellent correlation by manipulating the data in &#8220;&#8221;creative&#8221;&#8221; ways.</p>

	<p><blockquote cite="">We thus find that there is no significant correlation of the <span class="caps">CRF</span> curve from Shaviv&#8217;s model and the temperature curve of Veizer, even after one of the four <span class="caps">CRF</span> peaks was arbitrarily shifted by 40 m.y. to improve the fit to the temperature curve. There also is no significant correlation between the original meteorite data and the temperature reconstruction. The explained variance claimed by [Shaviv and Veizer, 2003] is the maximum achievable by optimal smoothing of the temperature data and by making several arbitrary adjustments to the cosmic ray data (within their large uncertainty) to line up their peaks with the temperature curve.</blockquote></p>

	<p>That was one of the nicer comments in an article which was published in <span class="caps">EOS</span>, the house newsletter of the American Geophysical Union.  There was a reply <a href="http://www.agu.org/journals/eo/eo0448/2004EO480004.pdf" rel="nofollow">  by VandS </a> that is behind the subscription wall )also here a <a href="www.phys.huji.ac.il/~shaviv/ClimateDebate/RahmReplyReply.pdf" rel="nofollow">further reply to the reply to the reply with the first reply&#8230;.</a>  and a <a href="http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~stefan/Publications/Journals/rahmstorf_etal_eos_2004.html" rel="nofollow"> rebuttal by Rahmstorf </a></p>
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		<title>By: Functional</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2006/11/06/parallel-universe-quiz/comment-page-2/#comment-178343</link>
		<dc:creator>Functional</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 10 Nov 2006 16:50:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2006/11/06/parallel-universe-quiz/#comment-178343</guid>
		<description>You&#039;re talking about one paper.  Veizer&#039;s quote was obviously a lot of research, whether by himself or others. No inconsistency.  

Anyway, a &quot;single NYT article&quot; is not by any means the only thing that I&#039;ve read.  It&#039;s just the easiest and most recent thing that came to mind when you asked for an example of good &quot;denialist&quot; research, i.e., research showing that human-emitted CO2 doesn&#039;t, in fact, cause 100% of all global warming that has ever occurred.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>You&#8217;re talking about one paper.  Veizer&#8217;s quote was obviously a lot of research, whether by himself or others. No inconsistency.</p>

	<p>Anyway, a &#8220;single <span class="caps">NYT</span> article&#8221; is not by any means the only thing that I&#8217;ve read.  It&#8217;s just the easiest and most recent thing that came to mind when you asked for an example of good &#8220;denialist&#8221; research, i.e., research showing that human-emitted <span class="caps">CO2</span> doesn&#8217;t, in fact, cause 100% of all global warming that has ever occurred.</p>
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		<title>By: bi</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2006/11/06/parallel-universe-quiz/comment-page-2/#comment-178323</link>
		<dc:creator>bi</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 10 Nov 2006 13:55:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2006/11/06/parallel-universe-quiz/#comment-178323</guid>
		<description>Functional: Oh, so presumably the NYT also mentioned that Veizer and Shaviv believe that &quot;probably about 1/3 to 1/2 of the warming&quot; is caused by humans? Wait... no.

Enough of your mud-slinging. Have you even read realclimate.org? Or are you basing all your insulting epithets on nothing but a single NYT article?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Functional: Oh, so presumably the <span class="caps">NYT</span> also mentioned that Veizer and Shaviv believe that &#8220;probably about 1/3 to 1/2 of the warming&#8221; is caused by humans? Wait&#8230; no.</p>

	<p>Enough of your mud-slinging. Have you even read realclimate.org? Or are you basing all your insulting epithets on nothing but a single <span class="caps">NYT</span> article?</p>
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		<title>By: Eli Rabett</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2006/11/06/parallel-universe-quiz/comment-page-2/#comment-178280</link>
		<dc:creator>Eli Rabett</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 10 Nov 2006 06:01:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2006/11/06/parallel-universe-quiz/#comment-178280</guid>
		<description>Oh yes, some trenchiant comments on &lt;a href=&quot;http://rabett.blogspot.com/2006/10/modest-proposal-it-had-come-to.html&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt; denialists and deniers.&lt;/a&gt;  It&#039;s really simple.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Oh yes, some trenchiant comments on <a href="http://rabett.blogspot.com/2006/10/modest-proposal-it-had-come-to.html" rel="nofollow"> denialists and deniers.</a>  It&#8217;s really simple.</p>
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		<title>By: Eli Rabett</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2006/11/06/parallel-universe-quiz/comment-page-1/#comment-178279</link>
		<dc:creator>Eli Rabett</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 10 Nov 2006 05:59:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2006/11/06/parallel-universe-quiz/#comment-178279</guid>
		<description>McKitrick and Essex completely blew their ruminations about temperature.  The dear boys used &lt;a href=&quot;http://rabett.blogspot.com/2005/11/temperature-rex-bites-essex-and.html&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt; Celcius when they HAD to use Kelvin.&lt;/a&gt;  If you paid attention in your thermo class you would then understand why an arithmetic average of temperature makes sense.  OTOH exciting thermodynamics is right up there with military intelligence on the oxymoron scale.

This was a much worse error than the angle thing, IMHO, of course.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>McKitrick and Essex completely blew their ruminations about temperature.  The dear boys used <a href="http://rabett.blogspot.com/2005/11/temperature-rex-bites-essex-and.html" rel="nofollow"> Celcius when they <span class="caps">HAD</span> to use Kelvin.</a>  If you paid attention in your thermo class you would then understand why an arithmetic average of temperature makes sense.  <span class="caps">OTOH</span> exciting thermodynamics is right up there with military intelligence on the oxymoron scale.</p>

	<p>This was a much worse error than the angle thing, <span class="caps">IMHO</span>, of course.</p>
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		<title>By: Functional</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2006/11/06/parallel-universe-quiz/comment-page-1/#comment-178268</link>
		<dc:creator>Functional</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 10 Nov 2006 03:59:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2006/11/06/parallel-universe-quiz/#comment-178268</guid>
		<description>No you didn&#039;t.  You pointed out how &lt;b&gt;Tech Central Station&lt;/b&gt; allegedly didn&#039;t &quot;tell the whole story&quot; as to Veizer&#039;s research.   That was irrelevant.  No one was talking about TCS in the first place.  

What the New York Times said about Veizer wasn&#039;t some journalist&#039;s characterization: It was Veizer&#039;s own words:

&lt;b&gt;“More and more data,” Jan Veizer, an expert on Phanerozoic climates at the University of Ottawa, said, “point to the Sun and stars as the dominant driver.”&lt;/b&gt;

Do you have evidence that Veizer was misquoted here?  No?  Then enough with the idiotic pretense that you&#039;ve proven anything whatsoever about the Times&#039; story.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>No you didn&#8217;t.  You pointed out how <b>Tech Central Station</b> allegedly didn&#8217;t &#8220;tell the whole story&#8221; as to Veizer&#8217;s research.   That was irrelevant.  No one was talking about <span class="caps">TCS</span> in the first place.</p>

	<p>What the New York Times said about Veizer wasn&#8217;t some journalist&#8217;s characterization: It was Veizer&#8217;s own words:</p>

	<p><b>&#8220;More and more data,&#8221; Jan Veizer, an expert on Phanerozoic climates at the University of Ottawa, said, &#8220;point to the Sun and stars as the dominant driver.&#8221;</b></p>

	<p>Do you have evidence that Veizer was misquoted here?  No?  Then enough with the idiotic pretense that you&#8217;ve proven anything whatsoever about the Times&#8217; story.</p>
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		<title>By: bi</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2006/11/06/parallel-universe-quiz/comment-page-1/#comment-178231</link>
		<dc:creator>bi</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 09 Nov 2006 21:55:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2006/11/06/parallel-universe-quiz/#comment-178231</guid>
		<description>Functional: I did specify one way in which the NYT didn&#039;t tell the whole story. But keep saying nyah-nyah-nyah and ignoring realclimate.org and building strawmen, will ya?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Functional: I did specify one way in which the <span class="caps">NYT</span> didn&#8217;t tell the whole story. But keep saying nyah-nyah-nyah and ignoring realclimate.org and building strawmen, will ya?</p>
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		<title>By: Functional</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2006/11/06/parallel-universe-quiz/comment-page-1/#comment-178229</link>
		<dc:creator>Functional</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 09 Nov 2006 21:42:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2006/11/06/parallel-universe-quiz/#comment-178229</guid>
		<description>So let&#039;s see -- I&#039;m not supposed to trust a bunch of respected scientists quoted in the New York Times, because some anonymous poster on the Internet thinks that the article might be wrong in unspecified ways?  Yeah, that&#039;s a hard decision.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>So let&#8217;s see&#8212;I&#8217;m not supposed to trust a bunch of respected scientists quoted in the New York Times, because some anonymous poster on the Internet thinks that the article might be wrong in unspecified ways?  Yeah, that&#8217;s a hard decision.</p>
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		<title>By: bi</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2006/11/06/parallel-universe-quiz/comment-page-1/#comment-178228</link>
		<dc:creator>bi</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 09 Nov 2006 21:26:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2006/11/06/parallel-universe-quiz/#comment-178228</guid>
		<description>aaron: That last sentence wasn&#039;t even grammatical. What stuff are you smoking again?

Functional: Well, given that the NYT didn&#039;t exactly give the full enchilada on even Veizer&#039;s work, what are the chances that its representation of Geigengack, Rohde, Rothman, Cerling is true to fact? How about you actually read what the authors themselves actually write in their reports rather than trying to learn high-level science from newspapers...

Of course, given that you can&#039;t make an argument without preemptively making up strawmen and then demolishing them, I&#039;m sure you won&#039;t do that. So once again, good day.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>aaron: That last sentence wasn&#8217;t even grammatical. What stuff are you smoking again?</p>

	<p>Functional: Well, given that the <span class="caps">NYT</span> didn&#8217;t exactly give the full enchilada on even Veizer&#8217;s work, what are the chances that its representation of Geigengack, Rohde, Rothman, Cerling is true to fact? How about you actually read what the authors themselves actually write in their reports rather than trying to learn high-level science from newspapers&#8230;</p>

	<p>Of course, given that you can&#8217;t make an argument without preemptively making up strawmen and then demolishing them, I&#8217;m sure you won&#8217;t do that. So once again, good day.</p>
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		<title>By: aaron</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2006/11/06/parallel-universe-quiz/comment-page-1/#comment-178135</link>
		<dc:creator>aaron</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 08 Nov 2006 22:19:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2006/11/06/parallel-universe-quiz/#comment-178135</guid>
		<description>And, the CT post treats the 1/3 to 1/2 of global warming is human caused the effect of increased CO2 is something that happens in addition to natural warming.  It is not, the 1/3 to 1/2 human effect is created by the compounding effect of CO2 on the &lt;b&gt;natural&lt;/b&gt; solar driven increase in temp.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>And, the CT post treats the 1/3 to 1/2 of global warming is human caused the effect of increased <span class="caps">CO2</span> is something that happens in addition to natural warming.  It is not, the 1/3 to 1/2 human effect is created by the compounding effect of <span class="caps">CO2</span> on the <b>natural</b> solar driven increase in temp.</p>
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		<title>By: aaron</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2006/11/06/parallel-universe-quiz/comment-page-1/#comment-178126</link>
		<dc:creator>aaron</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 08 Nov 2006 21:04:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2006/11/06/parallel-universe-quiz/#comment-178126</guid>
		<description>The author says &quot;there is &lt;i&gt;a clear limit&lt;/i&gt; to the forcing effect of CO2&quot;.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>The author says &#8220;there is <i>a clear limit</i> to the forcing effect of <span class="caps">CO2</span>&#8221;.</p>
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		<title>By: aaron</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2006/11/06/parallel-universe-quiz/comment-page-1/#comment-178124</link>
		<dc:creator>aaron</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 08 Nov 2006 20:57:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2006/11/06/parallel-universe-quiz/#comment-178124</guid>
		<description>Oh, heh.  That is the report.  And they stand by it.  It limits global warming to 1-1.5C.

The author&#039;s complaint about being misquoted is about an entirely seperate issue from the  one discussed in the posts.  The author wants it clear that Solar fluctuations drive global warming in the timeframes we look at.  The cosmic ray driven variations are much smaller and occur over periods of hunreds of millions of years.  His gripe is about the use of the term cosmics rays instead of solar.

Points for Robin.  Severe Ice Ages are becoming less likely.  His study says that over the next several million years, ice ages will become less severe and eventually disappear. So in 50 million or so years, less ice ages.

And of course, I didn&#039;t mean to say that there is a 50/50 chance of the temp going up or down equal amounts year to year.  I meant that factors beyond our control determine how CO2 affects our climate.  Let&#039;s see some good solar climate forcasts.  &#039;til then, it&#039;s worthless.  Why are we to believe that current levels of solar activity will be the norm in the future? (even if they are, or they go up, will CO2 concentration increases increase warming forcing significantly further?)  And what happens if they decrease?  Does warming stop?  Do we need to worry about cooling?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Oh, heh.  That is the report.  And they stand by it.  It limits global warming to 1-1.5C.</p>

	<p>The author&#8217;s complaint about being misquoted is about an entirely seperate issue from the  one discussed in the posts.  The author wants it clear that Solar fluctuations drive global warming in the timeframes we look at.  The cosmic ray driven variations are much smaller and occur over periods of hunreds of millions of years.  His gripe is about the use of the term cosmics rays instead of solar.</p>

	<p>Points for Robin.  Severe Ice Ages are becoming less likely.  His study says that over the next several million years, ice ages will become less severe and eventually disappear. So in 50 million or so years, less ice ages.</p>

	<p>And of course, I didn&#8217;t mean to say that there is a 50/50 chance of the temp going up or down equal amounts year to year.  I meant that factors beyond our control determine how <span class="caps">CO2</span> affects our climate.  Let&#8217;s see some good solar climate forcasts.  &#8216;til then, it&#8217;s worthless.  Why are we to believe that current levels of solar activity will be the norm in the future? (even if they are, or they go up, will <span class="caps">CO2</span> concentration increases increase warming forcing significantly further?)  And what happens if they decrease?  Does warming stop?  Do we need to worry about cooling?</p>
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