Their foreign policy elite includes a cadre of weirdos who think that owning a lot of space on a map of the world means something.

I mean Russia still disputes the useless Kuril Islands with Japan, just because it wants to remain large, even if there is no easy way for any Russian from Moscow to get there.

In other words, some of them (the Russian foreign policy shapers) are nuts.

Yes, that is probably part of their thinking. They may even be right, even if I actually doubt it. But my point is: So what?

They are all freaked out because NATO planes patrol Baltic airspace. But at the same time, their planes violate Estonian airspace all the time. And they don’t apologize – they deny it occurs. What’s an Eestlane to do?

If Russia had said, “Go ahead, join NATO, see if we care” – it wouldn’t have happened. But instead they jumped up and down and made threats and pushed the Baltics FARTHER away into NATO’s arms.

And it’s not just the US. Iceland, Denmark, and Norway, all supported NATO membership for Estonia. Does Norway present a threat to Russia as a NATO member? You may say “but Norway’s border is so far north”

Yes, but every Russian ship or submarine that sails out of Murmansk, the headquarters of Russia’s northern fleet and nuclear submarine arsenal, has to go through Norwegian waters. So in a way, Norway is a more threatening NATO partner than Estonia is. I mean what role would Estonia play in NATO? The forward staging ground for an attack on St. Petersburg? Trust me, if it came to that, whomever was making that attack would have no problem securing an alliance with Finland. Even neutral Sweden let Nazi Germany transport resources through its country in World War II. Let’s get serious here.

The Chechnyan independence issue is separate, and here’s why. Russia has all but confessed that it occupied the Baltic countries. They signed peace treaties in 1918-1920 with Finland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, recognizing them as independent countries in perpetuity. Even when they occupied those countries, they remained SSR - individual republics, not parts of Russia proper.

Russia has never acknowledged that Chechnya is anything but a part of the Russian Federation.

In my opinion, the Russians are wasting their time in Grozny. But they think that if one republic in Russia proper secedes then Tatarstan and Dagestan and Mari-El will follow.

I think neutrality in this region is an illusion.
Austria and Sweden are in a completely different position.
As far as Finland is concerned, Tarja Halonen – the President of Finland – has become Putin’s personal cheerleader in the EU, along with Jaques Chirac of France. Finland’s EU presidency has turned into a fiasco due to the way they handle Russia.
Finland and the Baltic States have chosen different paths.

And if you want to argue that these guys are violent – yes, that’s exactly my point: typically violence is the only way to achieve independence. That’s not controversial, such is life.

Of course they aren’t – I’m suggesting that they’d be a useful supplement to wherever you got PR separatists shot like dogs (I’m curious to learn where you got THAT nugget from).

Here are some blogs with titles that start with the letter C. Am I missing a good one? Yours? Let me know in the comments. Also check (now updated) blogs that start with: Number/Symbol A B……

They’re plenty aggressive in Chechnya, it seems to me. The war that made Putin.

And I stand by my psychobabble. Russians are irrational about their status and emotionally invested in obsolete geopolitical power politics. Consider this: Does Russia rationally have anything to fear from Estonia’s, Latvia’s or Lithuania’s NATO membership?

Most people I know that are familiar with Russia say this. I used to live in Estonia and I am returning to live again soon. I have never been to Russia. I am curious as to where you get your knowledge of Russia.

I reject the premise: that they – as a nation, assuming it’s possible to speak of 150 million people as one group – are in an expansionist phase now. They have enough trouble to keep together what’s left there. Their economy is undergoing a huge, incredibly huge transformation. Their social structures are in the middle of a transformation too. They are not really sure who they are.

This is going to take decades.

Of course this is an opportune moment to whip up some nationalism, but an expansionist war? No way, man.