Comments on: Blogospheric Implosion? http://crookedtimber.org/2006/12/15/blogospheric-implosion/ Out of the crooked timber of humanity, no straight thing was ever made Mon, 13 Feb 2012 09:04:17 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Blogospheric Implosion? « Librarian’s place http://crookedtimber.org/2006/12/15/blogospheric-implosion/comment-page-1/#comment-182828 Blogospheric Implosion? « Librarian’s place Thu, 28 Dec 2006 19:43:44 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2006/12/15/blogospheric-implosion/#comment-182828 [...] Crooked Timber » » Blogospheric Implosion? [...] [...] Crooked Timber » » Blogospheric Implosion? [...]

]]> By: Doug K http://crookedtimber.org/2006/12/15/blogospheric-implosion/comment-page-1/#comment-182271 Doug K Mon, 18 Dec 2006 19:09:52 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2006/12/15/blogospheric-implosion/#comment-182271 I've been reading Gartner reports for over a decade now, and I cannot offhand recall a single instance of their predictions being realised. slj has the right response I think.. Gartner reports are best viewed as an elaborate quadrille between Gartner, PR, vendors, and journalists. Reality, that sad wallflower, wasn't invited. I’ve been reading Gartner reports for over a decade now, and I cannot offhand recall a single instance of their predictions being realised. slj has the right response I think..

Gartner reports are best viewed as an elaborate quadrille between Gartner, PR, vendors, and journalists. Reality, that sad wallflower, wasn’t invited.

]]> By: John Emerson http://crookedtimber.org/2006/12/15/blogospheric-implosion/comment-page-1/#comment-182201 John Emerson Sun, 17 Dec 2006 17:37:23 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2006/12/15/blogospheric-implosion/#comment-182201 Fisk require refrigeration and will start to smell once the power goes out. Fisk require refrigeration and will start to smell once the power goes out.

]]> By: SLJ http://crookedtimber.org/2006/12/15/blogospheric-implosion/comment-page-1/#comment-182192 SLJ Sun, 17 Dec 2006 14:21:58 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2006/12/15/blogospheric-implosion/#comment-182192 Yet another Gartner report reaching a provactive conclusion that (surprise!) reassures paying customers and puts the Gartner name in the paper. Yet another overpaid MBA quant-jock who confuses the map for the territory. They're putting too much faith in numbers without paying attention to reality. Fundamental error: it's about <b>blogging</b> not <b>blogs</b>. The raw number of <b>blogs</b> may level off (or not) but the amount of <b>blogging</b> will continue to grow. It may be in group blogs, in places like myspace, or in other more sociable forms than the lone "me on my page." Whatever the form, <b>blogging</b> is alive and well. Yet another Gartner report reaching a provactive conclusion that (surprise!) reassures paying customers and puts the Gartner name in the paper.

Yet another overpaid MBA quant-jock who confuses the map for the territory. They’re putting too much faith in numbers without paying attention to reality.

Fundamental error: it’s about blogging not blogs. The raw number of blogs may level off (or not) but the amount of blogging will continue to grow. It may be in group blogs, in places like myspace, or in other more sociable forms than the lone “me on my page.” Whatever the form, blogging is alive and well.

]]> By: Alex http://crookedtimber.org/2006/12/15/blogospheric-implosion/comment-page-1/#comment-182164 Alex Sun, 17 Dec 2006 00:20:21 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2006/12/15/blogospheric-implosion/#comment-182164 Technorati is another word for wrong. I have a RSS feed off'em that shows either: recent links to my blog, old links to my blog, Typepad/MT blogs that link to me as one link for each postpage, or none. Anyway, even if the export of blogs hasn't collapsed yet, it's the moment at which HUMANITY and CIVILISATION! realises the END OF BLOG that matters, so I'm stockpiling fisk. Technorati is another word for wrong. I have a RSS feed off’em that shows either: recent links to my blog, old links to my blog, Typepad/MT blogs that link to me as one link for each postpage, or none.

Anyway, even if the export of blogs hasn’t collapsed yet, it’s the moment at which HUMANITY and CIVILISATION! realises the END OF BLOG that matters, so I’m stockpiling fisk.

]]> By: Bruce Wilder http://crookedtimber.org/2006/12/15/blogospheric-implosion/comment-page-1/#comment-182157 Bruce Wilder Sat, 16 Dec 2006 23:05:10 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2006/12/15/blogospheric-implosion/#comment-182157 I wonder how they classify the pages set up in connection with all kinds of social networking sites: myspace and youtube and flickr among them. My sense is that blogging's evolution still involves a lot of speciation, as the niches are not yet defined well. I wonder how they classify the pages set up in connection with all kinds of social networking sites: myspace and youtube and flickr among them.

My sense is that blogging’s evolution still involves a lot of speciation, as the niches are not yet defined well.

]]> By: derek http://crookedtimber.org/2006/12/15/blogospheric-implosion/comment-page-1/#comment-182154 derek Sat, 16 Dec 2006 22:32:05 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2006/12/15/blogospheric-implosion/#comment-182154 agree with seth. To me, blogs as a phenomenon will get bigger if more people spend time reading blogs, not if more people spend time writing them. There are already a sufficiently large number of blogs that, if no one creates any new ones, but the number of readers the existing ones get doubles every three months, then the print media have more trouble than if new blogs with tiny readerships were being created. They should pray that more new little blogs carry on being churned out. agree with seth. To me, blogs as a phenomenon will get bigger if more people spend time reading blogs, not if more people spend time writing them. There are already a sufficiently large number of blogs that, if no one creates any new ones, but the number of readers the existing ones get doubles every three months, then the print media have more trouble than if new blogs with tiny readerships were being created.

They should pray that more new little blogs carry on being churned out.

]]> By: Seth Finkelstein http://crookedtimber.org/2006/12/15/blogospheric-implosion/comment-page-1/#comment-182104 Seth Finkelstein Sat, 16 Dec 2006 00:41:22 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2006/12/15/blogospheric-implosion/#comment-182104 One should approach Technorati's numbers with a salt mine. As far as I know, there is no independent validation of them. Not to say there are deliberately misleading. But unreviewed data should be regarded with suspicion. One factor to consider in the discussion is possible confusion between "blogs in English" and "blog in the world". It may be that the English-speaking world is much closer to saturation than, e.g. China. Further, the "number created" statistic can be very misleading. With blogs being hyped so much, it's going to take in everyone who decided to see what the noise is about, every academic who thinks it's cool, every marketing person who slaps it on their website like a bad HTML tag. There's a certain amount of self-feeding faddishness that can't last forever. Note blogs reaching saturation would not mean that print media's problems are leveling off. It could be just the opposite. A phase of consolidation in online media could be even more trouble for print media. One should approach Technorati’s numbers with a salt mine. As far as I know, there is no independent validation of them. Not to say there are deliberately misleading. But unreviewed data should be regarded with suspicion.

One factor to consider in the discussion is possible confusion between “blogs in English” and “blog in the world”. It may be that the English-speaking world is much closer to saturation than, e.g. China.

Further, the “number created” statistic can be very misleading. With blogs being hyped so much, it’s going to take in everyone who decided to see what the noise is about, every academic who thinks it’s cool, every marketing person who slaps it on their website like a bad HTML tag. There’s a certain amount of self-feeding faddishness that can’t last forever.

Note blogs reaching saturation would not mean that print media’s problems are leveling off. It could be just the opposite. A phase of consolidation in online media could be even more trouble for print media.

]]> By: John Emerson http://crookedtimber.org/2006/12/15/blogospheric-implosion/comment-page-1/#comment-182099 John Emerson Fri, 15 Dec 2006 22:16:42 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2006/12/15/blogospheric-implosion/#comment-182099 There's really no problem with there being, say, a hundred billion billion billion blogs, or even many times more. They wouldn't all have a big readership, of course, but most blogs don't. With further developments in AI it should soon be possible for a bot to be designed which can read and comment on thousands or even millions of blogs every second. There’s really no problem with there being, say, a hundred billion billion billion blogs, or even many times more. They wouldn’t all have a big readership, of course, but most blogs don’t. With further developments in AI it should soon be possible for a bot to be designed which can read and comment on thousands or even millions of blogs every second.

]]> By: Scott Eric Kaufman http://crookedtimber.org/2006/12/15/blogospheric-implosion/comment-page-1/#comment-182091 Scott Eric Kaufman Fri, 15 Dec 2006 20:02:18 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2006/12/15/blogospheric-implosion/#comment-182091 4: www.holblog.com and www.holbog.com are still available. Why not start your own empire? 4: http://www.holblog.com and http://www.holbog.com are still available. Why not start your own empire?

]]> By: rea http://crookedtimber.org/2006/12/15/blogospheric-implosion/comment-page-1/#comment-182090 rea Fri, 15 Dec 2006 19:50:41 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2006/12/15/blogospheric-implosion/#comment-182090 "then the number of blogs in 6 months" Well, my math is wrong, but you get the basic principal . . . “then the number of blogs in 6 months”

Well, my math is wrong, but you get the basic principal . . .

]]> By: rea http://crookedtimber.org/2006/12/15/blogospheric-implosion/comment-page-1/#comment-182089 rea Fri, 15 Dec 2006 19:49:18 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2006/12/15/blogospheric-implosion/#comment-182089 "I don’t see the problem with the number of blogs doubling every three months indefinitely into the future." If there are really now 100 million blogs, and the number of blogs doubles every three months, then the number of blogs in 6 months will exceed the planet's population. Other than than, though, no problem! “I don’t see the problem with the number of blogs doubling every three months indefinitely into the future.”

If there are really now 100 million blogs, and the number of blogs doubles every three months, then the number of blogs in 6 months will exceed the planet’s population. Other than than, though, no problem!

]]> By: John Holbo http://crookedtimber.org/2006/12/15/blogospheric-implosion/comment-page-1/#comment-182086 John Holbo Fri, 15 Dec 2006 19:23:09 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2006/12/15/blogospheric-implosion/#comment-182086 For my part, I have resolved not to start any more blogs for the time being. That should do something to slow growth overall. For my part, I have resolved not to start any more blogs for the time being. That should do something to slow growth overall.

]]> By: Quo Vadis http://crookedtimber.org/2006/12/15/blogospheric-implosion/comment-page-1/#comment-182083 Quo Vadis Fri, 15 Dec 2006 18:48:41 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2006/12/15/blogospheric-implosion/#comment-182083 A more telling statistic for the future of print media would be trends in blog readership, not authorship. There is no problem with supply; there are more worthwhile blogs than I have time to read regularly. A more telling statistic for the future of print media would be trends in blog readership, not authorship. There is no problem with supply; there are more worthwhile blogs than I have time to read regularly.

]]> By: John Emerson http://crookedtimber.org/2006/12/15/blogospheric-implosion/comment-page-1/#comment-182079 John Emerson Fri, 15 Dec 2006 18:03:04 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2006/12/15/blogospheric-implosion/#comment-182079 I don't see the problem with the number of blogs doubling every three months indefinitely into the future. That's just "Moore's Law" all over again. E-reality is different than finite linear reality, and is unintelligible for minds trapped in the archaic failed pre-singularity paradigms. I don’t see the problem with the number of blogs doubling every three months indefinitely into the future. That’s just “Moore’s Law” all over again. E-reality is different than finite linear reality, and is unintelligible for minds trapped in the archaic failed pre-singularity paradigms.

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