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	<title>Comments on: Mostly Harmless</title>
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	<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2007/02/27/mostly-harmless/</link>
	<description>Out of the crooked timber of humanity, no straight thing was ever made</description>
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		<title>By: Barry</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2007/02/27/mostly-harmless/comment-page-1/#comment-188461</link>
		<dc:creator>Barry</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 02 Mar 2007 01:57:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2007/02/27/mostly-harmless/#comment-188461</guid>
		<description>One thing to remember (which will get you excommunicated from the ranks of the neo-conmen) is that Al Qaida has only struck in the US twice - 1993 and 2001.  It looks like their strategy isn&#039;t based on hitting the USA frequently.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>One thing to remember (which will get you excommunicated from the ranks of the neo-conmen) is that Al Qaida has only struck in the US twice &#8211; 1993 and 2001.  It looks like their strategy isn&#8217;t based on hitting the <span class="caps">USA</span> frequently.</p>
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		<title>By: Richard</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2007/02/27/mostly-harmless/comment-page-1/#comment-188299</link>
		<dc:creator>Richard</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 28 Feb 2007 16:53:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2007/02/27/mostly-harmless/#comment-188299</guid>
		<description>If I was al quada I guess I&#039;d go quadding.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>If I was al quada I guess I&#8217;d go quadding.</p>
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		<title>By: Thom</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2007/02/27/mostly-harmless/comment-page-1/#comment-188289</link>
		<dc:creator>Thom</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 28 Feb 2007 15:10:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2007/02/27/mostly-harmless/#comment-188289</guid>
		<description>If they wanted to &lt;i&gt;really&lt;/i&gt; freak Americans out, couldn&#039;t they just broadcast radio dramas about Martians or something? 

Same panic, much less bloodshed than your average bombing - everyone&#039;s a winner.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>If they wanted to <i>really</i> freak Americans out, couldn&#8217;t they just broadcast radio dramas about Martians or something?</p>

	<p>Same panic, much less bloodshed than your average bombing &#8211; everyone&#8217;s a winner.</p>
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		<title>By: Fledermaus</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2007/02/27/mostly-harmless/comment-page-1/#comment-188262</link>
		<dc:creator>Fledermaus</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 28 Feb 2007 05:43:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2007/02/27/mostly-harmless/#comment-188262</guid>
		<description>&lt;i&gt;Ergo, an obvious strategy for any terrorists would be to go and do this a few times, in more or less random locations.&lt;/i&gt;

Dude, my friends and I gamed this one out during a discussion of &quot;if we were al quada what would we do&quot;  I used the example of the DC snipers and the hysteria they caused - and that was just two people with a rifle and a car.  Imagine 10 or 20 pairs repeating it throughout the US - even for a couple of months.

That combined with a bunch of bragging on Al Jezera would likely be enough to send the country over the edge.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p><i>Ergo, an obvious strategy for any terrorists would be to go and do this a few times, in more or less random locations.</i></p>

	<p>Dude, my friends and I gamed this one out during a discussion of &#8220;if we were al quada what would we do&#8221;  I used the example of the DC snipers and the hysteria they caused &#8211; and that was just two people with a rifle and a car.  Imagine 10 or 20 pairs repeating it throughout the <span class="caps">US </span>- even for a couple of months.</p>

	<p>That combined with a bunch of bragging on Al Jezera would likely be enough to send the country over the edge.</p>
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		<title>By: abb1</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2007/02/27/mostly-harmless/comment-page-1/#comment-188228</link>
		<dc:creator>abb1</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 27 Feb 2007 20:24:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2007/02/27/mostly-harmless/#comment-188228</guid>
		<description>&#039;cause it&#039;s puny. According to wikipedia:
&lt;blockquote&gt;
Larger shopping malls exist in Turkey (Cevahir Mall), China, India, Japan, Canada (West Edmonton Mall), the Philippines (Mall of Asia, SM North EDSA, SM Megamall), and Malaysia (Berjaya Times Square, 1 Utama, Mid Valley Megamall). South Coast Plaza in Costa Mesa, California and King of Prussia Mall in suburban Philadelphia have more retail space.
&lt;/blockquote&gt;
Who would want to target such a pathetic little place.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>&#8216;cause it&#8217;s puny. According to wikipedia:<br />
<blockquote><br />
Larger shopping malls exist in Turkey (Cevahir Mall), China, India, Japan, Canada (West Edmonton Mall), the Philippines (Mall of Asia, <span class="caps">SM </span>North <span class="caps">EDSA</span>, SM Megamall), and Malaysia (Berjaya Times Square, 1 Utama, Mid Valley Megamall). South Coast Plaza in Costa Mesa, California and King of Prussia Mall in suburban Philadelphia have more retail space.<br />
</blockquote><br />
Who would want to target such a pathetic little place.</p>
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		<title>By: JRoth</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2007/02/27/mostly-harmless/comment-page-1/#comment-188227</link>
		<dc:creator>JRoth</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 27 Feb 2007 20:14:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2007/02/27/mostly-harmless/#comment-188227</guid>
		<description>Why does abb1 hate [the Mall of] America?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Why does abb1 hate [the Mall of] America?</p>
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		<title>By: abb1</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2007/02/27/mostly-harmless/comment-page-1/#comment-188226</link>
		<dc:creator>abb1</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 27 Feb 2007 20:09:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2007/02/27/mostly-harmless/#comment-188226</guid>
		<description>If it&#039;s a big one planned at the top, then their intended audience are not the Americans, so things like the Mall of America don&#039;t make sense: ordinary  people abroad don&#039;t know what &#039;mall&#039; means. Mall of America is not an internationally recognized symbol of American power in the world.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>If it&#8217;s a big one planned at the top, then their intended audience are not the Americans, so things like the Mall of America don&#8217;t make sense: ordinary  people abroad don&#8217;t know what &#8216;mall&#8217; means. Mall of America is not an internationally recognized symbol of American power in the world.</p>
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		<title>By: mattsteinglass</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2007/02/27/mostly-harmless/comment-page-1/#comment-188224</link>
		<dc:creator>mattsteinglass</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 27 Feb 2007 20:00:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2007/02/27/mostly-harmless/#comment-188224</guid>
		<description>&lt;i&gt;What level of domestic terrorism would it would take to send the United States to the point where its citizens would accept a highly repressive domestic government response in order to feel safe?&lt;/i&gt;

How about zero? Don&#039;t you get it -- 9/11 changed everything! :(</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p><i>What level of domestic terrorism would it would take to send the United States to the point where its citizens would accept a highly repressive domestic government response in order to feel safe?</i></p>

	<p>How about zero? Don&#8217;t you get it&#8212;9/11 changed everything! :(</p>
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		<title>By: Peter</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2007/02/27/mostly-harmless/comment-page-1/#comment-188223</link>
		<dc:creator>Peter</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 27 Feb 2007 19:25:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2007/02/27/mostly-harmless/#comment-188223</guid>
		<description>&lt;i&gt; I could mention a few highly selective non-military, non-industrial targets not in NYC, but I don’t want to get on anyone’s list.&lt;/i&gt;

Let&#039;s see ... Disney World ... Mall of America ... MGM Grand ... great, now I&#039;m probably on a list :)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p><i> I could mention a few highly selective non-military, non-industrial targets not in <span class="caps">NYC</span>, but I don&#8217;t want to get on anyone&#8217;s list.</i></p>

	<p>Let&#8217;s see &#8230; Disney World &#8230; Mall of America &#8230; <span class="caps">MGM </span>Grand &#8230; great, now I&#8217;m probably on a list :)</p>
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		<title>By: soru</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2007/02/27/mostly-harmless/comment-page-1/#comment-188220</link>
		<dc:creator>soru</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 27 Feb 2007 18:52:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2007/02/27/mostly-harmless/#comment-188220</guid>
		<description>Canonical example of the above: the front page coverage of the recent rail crash in the UK, in which 1 person died. In the time since the last fatal rail accident, 15,000 died on the roads, and few if any of those deaths were reported outside the local press.

In general, the only thing you can usefully do with terrorism is start a war. If you try to use it for some other purpose, it won&#039;t work, for reasons related to why slapping, spitting and  name-calling are not taught in unarmed combat classes.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Canonical example of the above: the front page coverage of the recent rail crash in the UK, in which 1 person died. In the time since the last fatal rail accident, 15,000 died on the roads, and few if any of those deaths were reported outside the local press.</p>

	<p>In general, the only thing you can usefully do with terrorism is start a war. If you try to use it for some other purpose, it won&#8217;t work, for reasons related to why slapping, spitting and  name-calling are not taught in unarmed combat classes.</p>
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		<title>By: Barry</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2007/02/27/mostly-harmless/comment-page-1/#comment-188219</link>
		<dc:creator>Barry</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 27 Feb 2007 18:50:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2007/02/27/mostly-harmless/#comment-188219</guid>
		<description>Posted by fred lapides:  &quot;Baghdad is the capital city. If there is one bombing per day, then what is the average per week that get killed there? Now the average per month? In addition the the anxiety and chaos, there is also a brain drain going on…but only with one bombing per day.&quot;

It&#039;s one bombing per day that we hear of, and the (seemingly) daily discovery of batches of 20-50 bodies showing signs of savage torture...

Considering that one bombing per day + a few such batches each week would tune out lesser acts, I imagine that individual killings are very, very, *very* frequent in Baghdad.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Posted by fred lapides:  &#8220;Baghdad is the capital city. If there is one bombing per day, then what is the average per week that get killed there? Now the average per month? In addition the the anxiety and chaos, there is also a brain drain going on&#8230;but only with one bombing per day.&#8221;</p>

	<p>It&#8217;s one bombing per day that we hear of, and the (seemingly) daily discovery of batches of 20-50 bodies showing signs of savage torture&#8230;</p>

	<p>Considering that one bombing per day + a few such batches each week would tune out lesser acts, I imagine that individual killings are very, very, <strong>very</strong> frequent in Baghdad.</p>
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		<title>By: Stuart</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2007/02/27/mostly-harmless/comment-page-1/#comment-188218</link>
		<dc:creator>Stuart</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 27 Feb 2007 18:31:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2007/02/27/mostly-harmless/#comment-188218</guid>
		<description>I would suggest the IRA is a good example of why, even if they had the resources, a policy of continual random mall/train bombings dont achieve very much in the end. The first attacks gain attention and spread fear, but a continued series of attacks of similar scales quickly become fairly trivial, and lose their impact. 

I guess its the way many people mess up statistics - rare events are seen as more personally threatening that moderately common events, because you hear about the more common events happening on a regular basis (if they are newsworthy) and you still havent been involved, so it becomes obvious you are very unlikely to be the victim of such an attack (which is correct of course), but for very rare attacks you dont have that background of similar events going on and this seems to make some people consider themselves more like.

For example killing 300 people a year in small bunches means people will hear on the news every week or more of a few more people being killed. If you kill 3000 people in one go every 10 years, you kill the same amount overall but you make more impact, it is remembered for much longer, and I am pretty sure the majority of people will consider themselves much more afraid of the single attack, in the long run, although there is no statistical reason to (as both are effectively 1 in a million per year if we were to consider the US as the example population).</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>I would suggest the <span class="caps">IRA</span> is a good example of why, even if they had the resources, a policy of continual random mall/train bombings dont achieve very much in the end. The first attacks gain attention and spread fear, but a continued series of attacks of similar scales quickly become fairly trivial, and lose their impact.</p>

	<p>I guess its the way many people mess up statistics &#8211; rare events are seen as more personally threatening that moderately common events, because you hear about the more common events happening on a regular basis (if they are newsworthy) and you still havent been involved, so it becomes obvious you are very unlikely to be the victim of such an attack (which is correct of course), but for very rare attacks you dont have that background of similar events going on and this seems to make some people consider themselves more like.</p>

	<p>For example killing 300 people a year in small bunches means people will hear on the news every week or more of a few more people being killed. If you kill 3000 people in one go every 10 years, you kill the same amount overall but you make more impact, it is remembered for much longer, and I am pretty sure the majority of people will consider themselves much more afraid of the single attack, in the long run, although there is no statistical reason to (as both are effectively 1 in a million per year if we were to consider the US as the example population).</p>
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		<title>By: JRoth</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2007/02/27/mostly-harmless/comment-page-1/#comment-188212</link>
		<dc:creator>JRoth</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 27 Feb 2007 17:39:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2007/02/27/mostly-harmless/#comment-188212</guid>
		<description>abb1: My understanding is that, in the aftermath of the fall of the Taliban, your description of aQ was not far off. But clearly aQ had significant organizational capacity prior to 9/11, and reports indicate that they are more or less back to that level. 9/11 was not 19 guys snapping.

As for the previous comment about the Beltway Sniper, regardless of his (alleged) claims about being inspired by 9/11 and aQ, he has been effectively pigeonholed as a traditional, American-style crazy-with-a-gun. If any other quasi-Muslim Americans had followed his path, it might have added up to more, but as an obviously unsound &quot;lone wolf,&quot; he&#039;s easy to ignore (as a phenomenon, not when he was actually out there shooting). Lesson? Mere random shootings are inadequate to terrify Americans. Thanks, NRA.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>abb1: My understanding is that, in the aftermath of the fall of the Taliban, your description of aQ was not far off. But clearly aQ had significant organizational capacity prior to 9/11, and reports indicate that they are more or less back to that level. 9/11 was not 19 guys snapping.</p>

	<p>As for the previous comment about the Beltway Sniper, regardless of his (alleged) claims about being inspired by 9/11 and aQ, he has been effectively pigeonholed as a traditional, American-style crazy-with-a-gun. If any other quasi-Muslim Americans had followed his path, it might have added up to more, but as an obviously unsound &#8220;lone wolf,&#8221; he&#8217;s easy to ignore (as a phenomenon, not when he was actually out there shooting). Lesson? Mere random shootings are inadequate to terrify Americans. Thanks, <span class="caps">NRA</span>.</p>
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		<title>By: jaywalker</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2007/02/27/mostly-harmless/comment-page-1/#comment-188210</link>
		<dc:creator>jaywalker</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 27 Feb 2007 17:31:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2007/02/27/mostly-harmless/#comment-188210</guid>
		<description>In being married to GWB, Laura Bush has perfected the art of tuning out all uncomfortable information. No &quot;Wargames&quot; Tic-tac-toe moment for her!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>In being married to <span class="caps">GWB</span>, Laura Bush has perfected the art of tuning out all uncomfortable information. No &#8220;Wargames&#8221; Tic-tac-toe moment for her!</p>
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		<title>By: abb1</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2007/02/27/mostly-harmless/comment-page-1/#comment-188209</link>
		<dc:creator>abb1</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 27 Feb 2007 17:14:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2007/02/27/mostly-harmless/#comment-188209</guid>
		<description>I don&#039;t think there is any evidence that they have any kind of vertical organization. I think the fellas in Afghanistan caves, all they do is issuing their proclamations. Once in a while someone somewhere would snap and get ready to become a martyr. Then something may or may not happen, depending on how smart and determined the guy is. More pressure, more bullying - more people are likely to snap. I think that&#039;s, pretty much, all there is to it.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>I don&#8217;t think there is any evidence that they have any kind of vertical organization. I think the fellas in Afghanistan caves, all they do is issuing their proclamations. Once in a while someone somewhere would snap and get ready to become a martyr. Then something may or may not happen, depending on how smart and determined the guy is. More pressure, more bullying &#8211; more people are likely to snap. I think that&#8217;s, pretty much, all there is to it.</p>
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