Comments on: Running on empty

By: Valuethinker

Valuethinker — Tue, 03 Apr 2007 15:27:06 +0000

Nick

If the Irish market is anything like the UK market, 70%+ of mortgages will be floating rate.

In the UK, most people are either floating, or on a 1 or 2 year rate fix (at most).

Ireland’s great advantage is it has a made in Germany interest rate, for a UK or Spanish style economy. Hence the massive influx of Eastern European immigrants (yes, people immigrate too Ireland, probably about the first time since the Vikings landed).

Irish property investors are also hugely invested abroad. I could name you a 50-story residential building in Toronto that was mostly sold to Irish buyers.

there’s huge housing equity in Ireland. I am less worried there, than I am in the UK or Spain, where it really does feel like the economies are built on bubbles.

By: Martin James

Martin James — Sun, 01 Apr 2007 18:21:09 +0000

…miles from their extended families…

Any American living only “miles” from extended family wouldn’t be considered to have even cut the apron strings.

By: Memex 1.1 » Blog Archive » The Celtic Tiger runs out of puff

Memex 1.1 » Blog Archive » The Celtic Tiger runs out of puff — Sat, 31 Mar 2007 15:43:04 +0000

[...] on this, Maria Farrell writes: Aside from the property bubble, Irish economic growth has been export-led through foreign direct [...]

By: Nick

Nick — Fri, 30 Mar 2007 19:53:34 +0000

The thirty-somethings, on the other hand, are mortgaged to the hilt and watching ECB interest rates like hawks.

Does that mean that mortgages in Ireland have variable rates? With a fixed rate mortgage, I couldn’t care less what interest rates do after the loan is finalized.

By: EWI

EWI — Fri, 30 Mar 2007 09:53:18 +0000

A sudden and unexpected drop of 10% in exports indicates that something may be seriously wrong. We need to ask why, and figure out what, if anything, we can do about it.

#3 and #5 have the answer, I think.

By: astrongmaybe

astrongmaybe — Fri, 30 Mar 2007 06:30:18 +0000

How long can we go on having these kind of discussions without the slightest reference to climate change? The thirty-somethings are watching interest rates like hawks, no doubt every politician and pundit is watching the GDP figures, but I doubt 1 in a 100 of them really, deep down, takes figures on carbon emissions (and thus the material basis of life in 50-100 years time) remotely as seriously. Particularly given the “economy as engine” metaphor, it seems worth thinking about.

By: saorla

saorla — Fri, 30 Mar 2007 02:21:20 +0000

There are many who think that the crash will come sooner than the papers are reporting. The evictions have started but it is kept on the quiet. Several families have been evicted by the bank from properties they purchased in Kerry. Some organise to stay in the house paying rent to the bank. The situation is demoralising for young single professionals like myself, who, at current prices, cannot afford to buy a house/apartment on our own. Buying on a single income is next to impossible. It’s a bad situation

By: Running » Blog Archives » Comment on Running on empty by abb1

Running » Blog Archives » Comment on Running on empty by abb1 — Thu, 29 Mar 2007 20:01:08 +0000

[...] I hear the present-day Irish are not god-fearing people they used to be. nuff said. – More – [...]

By: dearieme

dearieme — Thu, 29 Mar 2007 19:33:11 +0000

“There are bad times just around the corner” has different lyrics for Britain and the US. How helpful of Mr Coward.

http://www.leoslyrics.com/listlyrics.php?hid=YNBPAw7pra4%3D

By: a

Thu, 29 Mar 2007 18:44:59 +0000

Of course it’s not just Ireland. The U.S. is at the beginning of a housing-led recession. No body was ever forced to buy a house. By the same token no body was ever forced to give a loan. I presume these twentysomethings who bought beyond their means can declare bankruptcy and walk away?

By: Maria

Maria — Thu, 29 Mar 2007 17:55:45 +0000

Agreed, dsquared. There’s not always a something that can be done.

By: abb1

abb1 — Thu, 29 Mar 2007 16:54:58 +0000

I hear the present-day Irish are not god-fearing people they used to be. ‘nuff said.

By: dsquared

dsquared — Thu, 29 Mar 2007 15:45:31 +0000

We need to ask why, and figure out what, if anything, we can do about it.

unfortunately the answer are “because your competitiveness advantage has been eaten up by the EUR/USD exchange rate” and “nope, nothing”. This is the downside of being a small economy at the edge of the eurozone.

By: Doug

Doug — Thu, 29 Mar 2007 15:30:17 +0000

“But how can an export-based economy sustain sufficient domestic demand for more than months at a time?”

Germany has asked this question for a mighty long time.

“our economy is still growing by 5-6% a year”

While 2.7% or thereabouts is considered a glowing year for the Germans, best since dotcom days…

By: P O'Neill

P O'Neill — Thu, 29 Mar 2007 15:27:51 +0000

Sort of on topic, it’s just mind-boggling that one of country’s cities—Galway—can lack drinkable water and have no clear date for correcting the problem. On the one hand one sees the statistics and reads (especially in the overseas media) about the endless boom and the overtaking of Northern Ireland. But don’t turn on the taps in Galway.