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	<title>Comments on: Deadly data in the transit lounge</title>
	<atom:link href="http://crookedtimber.org/2007/04/19/deadly-data-in-the-transit-lounge/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2007/04/19/deadly-data-in-the-transit-lounge/</link>
	<description>Out of the crooked timber of humanity, no straight thing was ever made</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Sun, 27 May 2012 00:43:58 +0000</lastBuildDate>
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		<title>By: Kevin Donoghue</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2007/04/19/deadly-data-in-the-transit-lounge/comment-page-1/#comment-194199</link>
		<dc:creator>Kevin Donoghue</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 23 Apr 2007 21:33:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2007/04/19/deadly-data-in-the-transit-lounge/#comment-194199</guid>
		<description>In other news, Megan McArdle &lt;a href=&quot;http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2007/04/those_in_the_kn.html&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;gets things assways&lt;/a&gt; again. Commenting on Daniel’s remark that “I can quite easily see how a load of detailed gruntwork with medical records might have to be done by the non-Iraqi authors or not done at all”, she says:

“...while I&#039;m no scientist, my impression is that things like &lt;em&gt;tabulating the basic data to test your hypothesis&lt;/em&gt; is usually done a leetle bit earlier than the night before your conference presenting the results. Since [dsquared’s] general schtick involves accusing me of not understanding scientific and statistical procedure, forgive me if I chortle.”

Evidently she thinks Lafta was going to present the results of the work on cancer in Vancouver.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>In other news, Megan McArdle <a href="http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2007/04/those_in_the_kn.html" rel="nofollow">gets things assways</a> again. Commenting on Daniel&#8217;s remark that &#8220;I can quite easily see how a load of detailed gruntwork with medical records might have to be done by the non-Iraqi authors or not done at all&#8221;, she says:</p>

	<p>&#8220;&#8230;while I&#8217;m no scientist, my impression is that things like <em>tabulating the basic data to test your hypothesis</em> is usually done a leetle bit earlier than the night before your conference presenting the results. Since [dsquared&#8217;s] general schtick involves accusing me of not understanding scientific and statistical procedure, forgive me if I chortle.&#8221;</p>

	<p>Evidently she thinks Lafta was going to present the results of the work on cancer in Vancouver.</p>
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	<item>
		<title>By: bi</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2007/04/19/deadly-data-in-the-transit-lounge/comment-page-1/#comment-194138</link>
		<dc:creator>bi</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 23 Apr 2007 10:47:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2007/04/19/deadly-data-in-the-transit-lounge/#comment-194138</guid>
		<description>Well, if there&#039;s a legitimate reason, definitely this reason is very closely guarded. Must be one of those &quot;I&#039;m going to stop you from flying, and I&#039;m not going to tell you why, because if I tell you I&#039;ll have to kill you&quot; kind of thing. As I said, it&#039;s definitely some secret law which was passed in some secret parliamentary session by secret members of a secret government in the US and UK!

Because remember, children, arbitrary secrecy is what keeps Us free!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Well, if there&#8217;s a legitimate reason, definitely this reason is very closely guarded. Must be one of those &#8220;I&#8217;m going to stop you from flying, and I&#8217;m not going to tell you why, because if I tell you I&#8217;ll have to kill you&#8221; kind of thing. As I said, it&#8217;s definitely some secret law which was passed in some secret parliamentary session by secret members of a secret government in the US and UK!</p>

	<p>Because remember, children, arbitrary secrecy is what keeps Us free!</p>
 ]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>By: Donald Johnson</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2007/04/19/deadly-data-in-the-transit-lounge/comment-page-1/#comment-194061</link>
		<dc:creator>Donald Johnson</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 22 Apr 2007 13:03:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2007/04/19/deadly-data-in-the-transit-lounge/#comment-194061</guid>
		<description>Just read Kevin&#039;s link.  It doesn&#039;t, of course, show that the Lancet numbers are right, but it does show that Spagat isn&#039;t a critic whose honesty can be taken for granted.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Just read Kevin&#8217;s link.  It doesn&#8217;t, of course, show that the Lancet numbers are right, but it does show that Spagat isn&#8217;t a critic whose honesty can be taken for granted.</p>
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		<title>By: Kevin Donoghue</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2007/04/19/deadly-data-in-the-transit-lounge/comment-page-1/#comment-193973</link>
		<dc:creator>Kevin Donoghue</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 21 Apr 2007 12:42:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2007/04/19/deadly-data-in-the-transit-lounge/#comment-193973</guid>
		<description>Try this:

http://hrw.org/americas/spagat_response.pdf</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Try this:</p>

	<p><a href="http://hrw.org/americas/spagat_response.pdf" rel="nofollow">http://hrw.org/americas/spagat_response.pdf</a></p>
 ]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>By: conchis</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2007/04/19/deadly-data-in-the-transit-lounge/comment-page-1/#comment-193972</link>
		<dc:creator>conchis</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 21 Apr 2007 11:56:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2007/04/19/deadly-data-in-the-transit-lounge/#comment-193972</guid>
		<description>Dsquared: the link still don&#039;t work.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Dsquared: the link still don&#8217;t work.</p>
 ]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>By: nick s</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2007/04/19/deadly-data-in-the-transit-lounge/comment-page-1/#comment-193961</link>
		<dc:creator>nick s</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 21 Apr 2007 05:58:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2007/04/19/deadly-data-in-the-transit-lounge/#comment-193961</guid>
		<description>&lt;i&gt;Silly me, carrying Republican water when I thought I was just being reasonable.&lt;/i&gt;

Spurting Republican water, jet. &lt;i&gt;Spurting&lt;/i&gt;.

And I see that Kane&#039;s showed up too. No blog visa problems for the usually suspect.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p><i>Silly me, carrying Republican water when I thought I was just being reasonable.</i></p>

	<p>Spurting Republican water, jet. <i>Spurting</i>.</p>

	<p>And I see that Kane&#8217;s showed up too. No blog visa problems for the usually suspect.</p>
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		<title>By: jet</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2007/04/19/deadly-data-in-the-transit-lounge/comment-page-1/#comment-193921</link>
		<dc:creator>jet</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 20 Apr 2007 20:28:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2007/04/19/deadly-data-in-the-transit-lounge/#comment-193921</guid>
		<description>Oh bi, you are so clever.  Obviously there can be no legitimate reason, him being a mid ranking official in the Saddam Husien administration, many of which are actively trying to kill US soldiers right now.  

In a country that won&#039;t take US citizens off a no fly list, even after they are cleared, I&#039;m sure it is easy to get special clearance for Iraqis on the &quot;A lot of them are fighting US soldiers&quot; list.  

Silly me, carrying Republican water when I thought I was just being reasonable.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Oh bi, you are so clever.  Obviously there can be no legitimate reason, him being a mid ranking official in the Saddam Husien administration, many of which are actively trying to kill US soldiers right now.</p>

	<p>In a country that won&#8217;t take US citizens off a no fly list, even after they are cleared, I&#8217;m sure it is easy to get special clearance for Iraqis on the &#8220;A lot of them are fighting US soldiers&#8221; list.</p>

	<p>Silly me, carrying Republican water when I thought I was just being reasonable.</p>
 ]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>By: bi</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2007/04/19/deadly-data-in-the-transit-lounge/comment-page-1/#comment-193906</link>
		<dc:creator>bi</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 20 Apr 2007 18:51:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2007/04/19/deadly-data-in-the-transit-lounge/#comment-193906</guid>
		<description>Occam&#039;s Razor = the principle that, given two or more competing explanations for the same phenomenon, one should prefer the explanation containing the least amount of fact. Alternatively, the principle that, given two or more competing explanations for the same phenomenon, one should prefer the explanation that supports the Republican Party the most. w00t!

So, can jet or David Kane give any &lt;em&gt;legitimate explanation&lt;/em&gt; for denying transit to Dr. Lafta? No?

Facts are stubborn things, indeed.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Occam&#8217;s Razor = the principle that, given two or more competing explanations for the same phenomenon, one should prefer the explanation containing the least amount of fact. Alternatively, the principle that, given two or more competing explanations for the same phenomenon, one should prefer the explanation that supports the Republican Party the most. w00t!</p>

	<p>So, can jet or David Kane give any <em>legitimate explanation</em> for denying transit to Dr. Lafta? No?</p>

	<p>Facts are stubborn things, indeed.</p>
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		<title>By: David Kane</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2007/04/19/deadly-data-in-the-transit-lounge/comment-page-1/#comment-193902</link>
		<dc:creator>David Kane</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 20 Apr 2007 18:08:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2007/04/19/deadly-data-in-the-transit-lounge/#comment-193902</guid>
		<description>Daniel writes:

&lt;blockquote&gt;
I’d note that there isn’t an election on in the USA at present, so the denialist crowd can shove that little slur up their backsides this time too.
&lt;/blockquote&gt;

And why is that a &quot;slur?&quot; Roberts &lt;i&gt;admits&lt;/i&gt; that the publication of Lancet I were &lt;a href=&quot;http://chronicle.com/free/2005/01/2005012701n.htm&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;timed&lt;/a&gt; with regard to the 2004 election. 

&lt;blockquote&gt;
What went wrong this time? Perhaps the rush by researchers and The Lancet to put the study in front of American voters before the election accomplished precisely the opposite result, drowning out a valuable study in the clamor of the presidential campaign.
&lt;/blockquote&gt;

&lt;blockquote&gt;
&quot;On the 25th of September my focus was about how to get out of the country,&quot; he [Roberts] recalls. &quot;My second focus was to get this information out before the U.S. election.&quot; In little more than 30 days, the paper was published in The Lancet.
&lt;/blockquote&gt;

&lt;blockquote&gt;
Mr. Roberts and his colleagues now believe that the speedy publication of that data created much of the public skepticism toward the study. He sent the manuscript to the medical journal on October 1, requesting that it be published that month. Mr. Roberts says the editors agreed to do so without asking him why. 
&lt;/blockquote&gt;

Love that last bit. I am sure that the editors of the Lancet never ask &quot;Why?&quot; when an author asks for super-fast turn-around times.

&lt;blockquote&gt;
Mr. Roberts insists that his primary motive for rushing the paper to press was not political. He says he is glad the paper appeared before the election because he was concerned for his Iraqi colleagues&#039; safety. Had the paper come out after the election, he argues, it would have looked like a cover-up. Dr. Lafta, he says, &quot;would have been killed -- there is just no doubt.&quot; Dr. Lafta, in an e-mail message to The Chronicle, disagrees: &quot;My personal opinion is that this was an unjustified fear.&quot; Mr. Roberts acknowledges that he also hoped to ignite a policy change or public response. &quot;This was going to do more good in terms of changing policy if it came out in October than if it came out in November,&quot; he says. &quot;But we never had any delusions that this might affect the U.S. election.&quot; 
&lt;/blockquote&gt;

Anyway, the &lt;i&gt;best case&lt;/i&gt; scenario is that the publication was timed to &lt;i&gt;influence&lt;/i&gt; the US election by forcing candidates and voters to grapple with this important topic. The alternative is that it was rushed to publication because Roberts thought, perhaps naively, that it would increase Kerry&#039;s chances.

In either case, there is no doubt that the publication was timed with regard to the US election. 

So, why does Daniel accuse we &quot;denialists&quot; of using this &quot;slur?&quot; Facts are stubborn things.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Daniel writes:</p>

	<p><blockquote><br />
I&#8217;d note that there isn&#8217;t an election on in the <span class="caps">USA</span> at present, so the denialist crowd can shove that little slur up their backsides this time too.<br />
</blockquote></p>

	<p>And why is that a &#8220;slur?&#8221; Roberts <i>admits</i> that the publication of Lancet I were <a href="http://chronicle.com/free/2005/01/2005012701n.htm" rel="nofollow">timed</a> with regard to the 2004 election.</p>

	<p><blockquote><br />
What went wrong this time? Perhaps the rush by researchers and The Lancet to put the study in front of American voters before the election accomplished precisely the opposite result, drowning out a valuable study in the clamor of the presidential campaign.<br />
</blockquote></p>

	<p><blockquote><br />
&#8220;On the 25th of September my focus was about how to get out of the country,&#8221; he [Roberts] recalls. &#8220;My second focus was to get this information out before the U.S. election.&#8221; In little more than 30 days, the paper was published in The Lancet.<br />
</blockquote></p>

	<p><blockquote><br />
Mr. Roberts and his colleagues now believe that the speedy publication of that data created much of the public skepticism toward the study. He sent the manuscript to the medical journal on October 1, requesting that it be published that month. Mr. Roberts says the editors agreed to do so without asking him why.<br />
</blockquote></p>

	<p>Love that last bit. I am sure that the editors of the Lancet never ask &#8220;Why?&#8221; when an author asks for super-fast turn-around times.</p>

	<p><blockquote><br />
Mr. Roberts insists that his primary motive for rushing the paper to press was not political. He says he is glad the paper appeared before the election because he was concerned for his Iraqi colleagues&#8217; safety. Had the paper come out after the election, he argues, it would have looked like a cover-up. Dr. Lafta, he says, &#8220;would have been killed&#8212;there is just no doubt.&#8221; Dr. Lafta, in an e-mail message to The Chronicle, disagrees: &#8220;My personal opinion is that this was an unjustified fear.&#8221; Mr. Roberts acknowledges that he also hoped to ignite a policy change or public response. &#8220;This was going to do more good in terms of changing policy if it came out in October than if it came out in November,&#8221; he says. &#8220;But we never had any delusions that this might affect the U.S. election.&#8221;<br />
</blockquote></p>

	<p>Anyway, the <i>best case</i> scenario is that the publication was timed to <i>influence</i> the US election by forcing candidates and voters to grapple with this important topic. The alternative is that it was rushed to publication because Roberts thought, perhaps naively, that it would increase Kerry&#8217;s chances.</p>

	<p>In either case, there is no doubt that the publication was timed with regard to the US election.</p>

	<p>So, why does Daniel accuse we &#8220;denialists&#8221; of using this &#8220;slur?&#8221; Facts are stubborn things.</p>
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		<title>By: Sven</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2007/04/19/deadly-data-in-the-transit-lounge/comment-page-1/#comment-193875</link>
		<dc:creator>Sven</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 20 Apr 2007 14:31:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2007/04/19/deadly-data-in-the-transit-lounge/#comment-193875</guid>
		<description>&lt;i&gt;life-affecting decisions are made at scale using a stupid and broken system&lt;/i&gt;

Yes, I&#039;m sure the system would fail the Turing test.  It&#039;s probably all just a &lt;a&gt;coinkydink&lt;/a&gt;.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p><i>life-affecting decisions are made at scale using a stupid and broken system</i></p>

	<p>Yes, I&#8217;m sure the system would fail the Turing test.  It&#8217;s probably all just a <a>coinkydink</a>.</p>
 ]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>By: jet</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2007/04/19/deadly-data-in-the-transit-lounge/comment-page-1/#comment-193870</link>
		<dc:creator>jet</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 20 Apr 2007 14:05:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2007/04/19/deadly-data-in-the-transit-lounge/#comment-193870</guid>
		<description>This thread is like a Rorschach test or perhaps more of litmus test for gullability.  (Did you hear that Bush eats veal and starves spider monkeys while Cheney takes bets on which one dies first?)

People, while &lt;i&gt;Thinking Of The Children&lt;/i&gt;, remember Occam&#039;s razor.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>This thread is like a Rorschach test or perhaps more of litmus test for gullability.  (Did you hear that Bush eats veal and starves spider monkeys while Cheney takes bets on which one dies first?)</p>

	<p>People, while <i>Thinking Of The Children</i>, remember Occam&#8217;s razor.</p>
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		<title>By: bi</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2007/04/19/deadly-data-in-the-transit-lounge/comment-page-1/#comment-193856</link>
		<dc:creator>bi</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 20 Apr 2007 10:09:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2007/04/19/deadly-data-in-the-transit-lounge/#comment-193856</guid>
		<description>Thomas: ...which&#039;ll mean, of course, that Dr. Lafta is being refused a transit for rightful reasons -- namely, because he just violated some secret law which was passed in some secret parliamentary session by secret members of a secret government in the US and UK. D&#039;oh!

Though somehow I think Michael Mouse&#039;s explanation makes the most sense. But this explanation isn&#039;t exciting enough... darn!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Thomas: &#8230;which&#8217;ll mean, of course, that Dr. Lafta is being refused a transit for rightful reasons&#8212;namely, because he just violated some secret law which was passed in some secret parliamentary session by secret members of a secret government in the US and UK. D&#8217;oh!</p>

	<p>Though somehow I think Michael Mouse&#8217;s explanation makes the most sense. But this explanation isn&#8217;t exciting enough&#8230; darn!</p>
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		<title>By: Michael Mouse</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2007/04/19/deadly-data-in-the-transit-lounge/comment-page-1/#comment-193853</link>
		<dc:creator>Michael Mouse</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 20 Apr 2007 09:47:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2007/04/19/deadly-data-in-the-transit-lounge/#comment-193853</guid>
		<description>&lt;em&gt;Presumably the UK and US authorities have reasoned that Dr Lafta is an ex Ba&#039;ath Party member&lt;/em&gt;

I think you&#039;re under- and over-estimating the scariness of what&#039;s happened here.  

My theory is that there was no reasoning going on at all: Lafta&#039;s on a list of ex-Ba&#039;athists shared between the two countries, and was refused visas by the authorities simply because his name matches.

If there was any thought in to the process at all, it was probably only some poor underpaid, overworked Government clerk &quot;checking&quot; the results of what the computer spits out.

... which (if correct) is less scary in some senses - there&#039;s not an organised over-the-top crazed plot in high places to stop him Speaking The Dark Truth About Depleted Uranium - but more scary in others - important, life-affecting decisions are made at scale using a stupid and broken system, with the obvious and predictable results, only some of which turn out to be newsworthy.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p><em>Presumably the UK and US authorities have reasoned that Dr Lafta is an ex Ba&#8217;ath Party member</em></p>

	<p>I think you&#8217;re under- and over-estimating the scariness of what&#8217;s happened here.</p>

	<p>My theory is that there was no reasoning going on at all: Lafta&#8217;s on a list of ex-Ba&#8217;athists shared between the two countries, and was refused visas by the authorities simply because his name matches.</p>

	<p>If there was any thought in to the process at all, it was probably only some poor underpaid, overworked Government clerk &#8220;checking&#8221; the results of what the computer spits out.</p>

	<p>&#8230; which (if correct) is less scary in some senses &#8211; there&#8217;s not an organised over-the-top crazed plot in high places to stop him Speaking The Dark Truth About Depleted Uranium &#8211; but more scary in others &#8211; important, life-affecting decisions are made at scale using a stupid and broken system, with the obvious and predictable results, only some of which turn out to be newsworthy.</p>
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		<title>By: jonst</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2007/04/19/deadly-data-in-the-transit-lounge/comment-page-1/#comment-193851</link>
		<dc:creator>jonst</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 20 Apr 2007 09:33:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2007/04/19/deadly-data-in-the-transit-lounge/#comment-193851</guid>
		<description>&quot;Contemplate&quot; it.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>&#8220;Contemplate&#8221; it.</p>
 ]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>By: Katherine</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2007/04/19/deadly-data-in-the-transit-lounge/comment-page-1/#comment-193847</link>
		<dc:creator>Katherine</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 20 Apr 2007 09:06:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2007/04/19/deadly-data-in-the-transit-lounge/#comment-193847</guid>
		<description>Option (c) - the UK government didn&#039;t like what he said and are making him pay for it, in whatever petty way they can manage.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Option&#169; &#8211; the UK government didn&#8217;t like what he said and are making him pay for it, in whatever petty way they can manage.</p>
 ]]></content:encoded>
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