<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><rss version="2.0"
	xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/"
	xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/"
	xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom"
	xmlns:sy="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/syndication/"
		>
<channel>
	<title>Comments on: Review: Scott E Page, The Difference</title>
	<atom:link href="http://crookedtimber.org/2007/06/27/review-scott-e-page-the-difference/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2007/06/27/review-scott-e-page-the-difference/</link>
	<description>Out of the crooked timber of humanity, no straight thing was ever made</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Sun, 21 Mar 2010 18:54:12 +0000</lastBuildDate>
	<generator>http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2</generator>
	<sy:updatePeriod>hourly</sy:updatePeriod>
	<sy:updateFrequency>1</sy:updateFrequency>
		<item>
		<title>By: functional</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2007/06/27/review-scott-e-page-the-difference/comment-page-1/#comment-202343</link>
		<dc:creator>functional</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 29 Jun 2007 01:29:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2007/06/27/review-scott-e-page-the-difference/#comment-202343</guid>
		<description>Yes, yes, yes.  How often have we heard or experienced the fact that a committee sucked the life out of something, by killing every interesting or innovative (read: potentially risky) idea?  The best ideas usually come not from the boilerplate gobble-de-gook issued by a corporate committee, but by an individual (perhaps a &quot;maverick&quot;) who is more willing to stake out a risky claim.  Yet there could be nothing less &quot;diverse&quot; than a single individual.  What gives?  Does Page address this sort of point?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Yes, yes, yes.  How often have we heard or experienced the fact that a committee sucked the life out of something, by killing every interesting or innovative (read: potentially risky) idea?  The best ideas usually come not from the boilerplate gobble-de-gook issued by a corporate committee, but by an individual (perhaps a &#8220;maverick&#8221;) who is more willing to stake out a risky claim.  Yet there could be nothing less &#8220;diverse&#8221; than a single individual.  What gives?  Does Page address this sort of point?</p>
 ]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: leederick</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2007/06/27/review-scott-e-page-the-difference/comment-page-1/#comment-202303</link>
		<dc:creator>leederick</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 28 Jun 2007 21:32:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2007/06/27/review-scott-e-page-the-difference/#comment-202303</guid>
		<description>If Page and Surowiecki really think groups make better decisions than experts, then why did they write their books alone? I think we should be told.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>If Page and Surowiecki really think groups make better decisions than experts, then why did they write their books alone? I think we should be told.</p>
 ]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Ryan Muldoon</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2007/06/27/review-scott-e-page-the-difference/comment-page-1/#comment-202300</link>
		<dc:creator>Ryan Muldoon</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 28 Jun 2007 21:20:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2007/06/27/review-scott-e-page-the-difference/#comment-202300</guid>
		<description>Miller and Page have a new book called _Complex Adaptive Systems_ that is pretty nice.  Thomas Schelling&#039;s _Micromotives and Macrobehavior_ is a great book that helps one think like an agent-based modeler, but does not really deal with computer simulation.  Either book will give you a good sense of what goes into agent-based models, and they are easy reads.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Miller and Page have a new book called <em>Complex Adaptive Systems</em> that is pretty nice.  Thomas Schelling&#8217;s <em>Micromotives and Macrobehavior</em> is a great book that helps one think like an agent-based modeler, but does not really deal with computer simulation.  Either book will give you a good sense of what goes into agent-based models, and they are easy reads.</p>
 ]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: otto</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2007/06/27/review-scott-e-page-the-difference/comment-page-1/#comment-202284</link>
		<dc:creator>otto</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 28 Jun 2007 19:05:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2007/06/27/review-scott-e-page-the-difference/#comment-202284</guid>
		<description>Henry, do you have a book to recommend which does explain agent based modeling to the masses?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Henry, do you have a book to recommend which does explain agent based modeling to the masses?</p>
 ]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: functional</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2007/06/27/review-scott-e-page-the-difference/comment-page-1/#comment-202229</link>
		<dc:creator>functional</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 28 Jun 2007 13:05:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2007/06/27/review-scott-e-page-the-difference/#comment-202229</guid>
		<description>&lt;i&gt;Functional, you think we’re being “damn abstract” when I think most of us believe we’re being completely concrete, because it seems self-evident that people who decide (for whatever reason) to go to law school at a state university, for instance, are likely (not guaranteed, but likely) to have different perspectives than people who go to Harvard or Yale, and that those perspectives will manifest themselves in their strategic and legal thinking. If you don’t believe that people who go to Ivy League law schools are more like each other than they are like people who go to state university law schools, then you are, I think, completely out of touch with reality.&lt;/i&gt;

Yes, this is completely abstract and hypothetical.  I&#039;ve been asking for something specific, and that shows why these differing &quot;perspectives&quot; have any relevance to any practical problem.  

For example, let&#039;s say that the guy who goes to the state law school in Kansas is more likely to have lived on a farm than Yale Law graduates.  I&#039;d bet anything that that&#039;s true.  And if the subject in question is agricultural law, then maybe there&#039;d be a point in having lawyers who know something about agriculture. 

But how on earth does that turn into a &lt;i&gt;general principle&lt;/i&gt; that in the 99% of cases that don&#039;t involve agricultural law, this Kansas lawyer is by definition going to add a new and valuable &quot;perspective&quot;?  What is it that farmers, qua farmers, have as a perspective on cases that involve the Federal Rules of Civil Procedure, or ERISA, or the U.S. Sentencing Guidelines, or the Internal Revenue Code, or the 1996 Telecommunications Act?  

THAT&#039;S WHAT I MEAN when I say &quot;be specific.&quot;  I&#039;m not interested in abstractions about &quot;perspectives.&quot;  I want to know why all of these &quot;perspectives&quot; are going to be useful in specific cases. 

And this is not just about the law -- I want to know why the traditionally-trained oncologist is going to benefit from teaming up with the homeopathist, and so forth.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p><i>Functional, you think we&#8217;re being &#8220;damn abstract&#8221; when I think most of us believe we&#8217;re being completely concrete, because it seems self-evident that people who decide (for whatever reason) to go to law school at a state university, for instance, are likely (not guaranteed, but likely) to have different perspectives than people who go to Harvard or Yale, and that those perspectives will manifest themselves in their strategic and legal thinking. If you don&#8217;t believe that people who go to Ivy League law schools are more like each other than they are like people who go to state university law schools, then you are, I think, completely out of touch with reality.</i></p>

	<p>Yes, this is completely abstract and hypothetical.  I&#8217;ve been asking for something specific, and that shows why these differing &#8220;perspectives&#8221; have any relevance to any practical problem.</p>

	<p>For example, let&#8217;s say that the guy who goes to the state law school in Kansas is more likely to have lived on a farm than Yale Law graduates.  I&#8217;d bet anything that that&#8217;s true.  And if the subject in question is agricultural law, then maybe there&#8217;d be a point in having lawyers who know something about agriculture.</p>

	<p>But how on earth does that turn into a <i>general principle</i> that in the 99% of cases that don&#8217;t involve agricultural law, this Kansas lawyer is by definition going to add a new and valuable &#8220;perspective&#8221;?  What is it that farmers, qua farmers, have as a perspective on cases that involve the Federal Rules of Civil Procedure, or <span class="caps">ERISA</span>, or the U.S. Sentencing Guidelines, or the Internal Revenue Code, or the 1996 Telecommunications Act?</p>

	<p><span class="caps">THAT</span>&#8217;S <span class="caps">WHAT I MEAN</span> when I say &#8220;be specific.&#8221;  I&#8217;m not interested in abstractions about &#8220;perspectives.&#8221;  I want to know why all of these &#8220;perspectives&#8221; are going to be useful in specific cases.</p>

	<p>And this is not just about the law&#8212;I want to know why the traditionally-trained oncologist is going to benefit from teaming up with the homeopathist, and so forth.</p>
 ]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: SamChevre</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2007/06/27/review-scott-e-page-the-difference/comment-page-1/#comment-202228</link>
		<dc:creator>SamChevre</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 28 Jun 2007 12:55:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2007/06/27/review-scott-e-page-the-difference/#comment-202228</guid>
		<description>John Halasz,

What do hierarchies have to do with anything?  It seems the results of this study should be robust wrt hieracrchies.  They&#039;d seem to apply equally well to a group planning a block party (no hierarchy),  to a neighborhood group trying to get the city to improve the street lighting (figuring out how to deal with superiors), and a group designing a high-school curriculum (figuring out how to deal with inferiors.)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>John Halasz,</p>

	<p>What do hierarchies have to do with anything?  It seems the results of this study should be robust wrt hieracrchies.  They&#8217;d seem to apply equally well to a group planning a block party (no hierarchy),  to a neighborhood group trying to get the city to improve the street lighting (figuring out how to deal with superiors), and a group designing a high-school curriculum (figuring out how to deal with inferiors.)</p>
 ]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: F. Blair</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2007/06/27/review-scott-e-page-the-difference/comment-page-1/#comment-202209</link>
		<dc:creator>F. Blair</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 28 Jun 2007 08:29:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2007/06/27/review-scott-e-page-the-difference/#comment-202209</guid>
		<description>Functional, you think we&#039;re being &quot;damn abstract&quot; when I think most of us believe we&#039;re being completely concrete, because it seems self-evident that people who decide (for whatever reason) to go to law school at a state university, for instance, are likely (not guaranteed, but likely) to have different perspectives than people who go to Harvard or Yale, and that those perspectives will manifest themselves in their strategic and legal thinking. If you don&#039;t believe that people who go to Ivy League law schools are more like each other than they are like people who go to state university law schools, then you are, I think, completely out of touch with reality.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Functional, you think we&#8217;re being &#8220;damn abstract&#8221; when I think most of us believe we&#8217;re being completely concrete, because it seems self-evident that people who decide (for whatever reason) to go to law school at a state university, for instance, are likely (not guaranteed, but likely) to have different perspectives than people who go to Harvard or Yale, and that those perspectives will manifest themselves in their strategic and legal thinking. If you don&#8217;t believe that people who go to Ivy League law schools are more like each other than they are like people who go to state university law schools, then you are, I think, completely out of touch with reality.</p>
 ]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: john c. halasz</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2007/06/27/review-scott-e-page-the-difference/comment-page-1/#comment-202205</link>
		<dc:creator>john c. halasz</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 28 Jun 2007 07:26:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2007/06/27/review-scott-e-page-the-difference/#comment-202205</guid>
		<description>&quot;Competence, neigh brilliance&quot;... a line worthy of Swift.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>&#8220;Competence, neigh brilliance&#8221;&#8230; a line worthy of Swift.</p>
 ]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: JP Stormcrow</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2007/06/27/review-scott-e-page-the-difference/comment-page-1/#comment-202200</link>
		<dc:creator>JP Stormcrow</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 28 Jun 2007 05:42:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2007/06/27/review-scott-e-page-the-difference/#comment-202200</guid>
		<description>&lt;i&gt;Stop being so damn abstract (this goes for Henry too) and give a specific example.&lt;/i&gt;

Okay, against all better judgement, ignoring the many questionable aspects of the narrowly conceived strawman argument that you have constructed, let me offer a specific hypothetical example from  ... gee, let&#039;s say the practice of law.

A competing law firm employs uniformly very bright, well-schooled attorneys, who are walking encyclopedias of nuance and precedent in their various specialized fields. Competence, neigh brilliance (and the academic credentials to prove it), reigns supreme. However, after a &lt;strike&gt;series of comments&lt;/strike&gt; period of time you notice that there appears to be a lack of &quot;out-of-the-box&quot; and empathetic thinking, that the lawyers of the firm seem to be unable to &quot;walk around in the other fellow&#039;s shoes&quot;, that they instead seem to increasingly cling to their own confidence, and reputation for brilliance in interpreting and manipulating the specialized constructs of the law.

Is there an opportunity here? Possibly. Put together a team to develop and execute strategies for winning over a significant proportion of the customer base from the competing firm. What are some of the avenues open for attack? Anticipate the likely response of the competing firm.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p><i>Stop being so damn abstract (this goes for Henry too) and give a specific example.</i></p>

	<p>Okay, against all better judgement, ignoring the many questionable aspects of the narrowly conceived strawman argument that you have constructed, let me offer a specific hypothetical example from  &#8230; gee, let&#8217;s say the practice of law.</p>

	<p>A competing law firm employs uniformly very bright, well-schooled attorneys, who are walking encyclopedias of nuance and precedent in their various specialized fields. Competence, neigh brilliance (and the academic credentials to prove it), reigns supreme. However, after a <strike>series of comments</strike> period of time you notice that there appears to be a lack of &#8220;out-of-the-box&#8221; and empathetic thinking, that the lawyers of the firm seem to be unable to &#8220;walk around in the other fellow&#8217;s shoes&#8221;, that they instead seem to increasingly cling to their own confidence, and reputation for brilliance in interpreting and manipulating the specialized constructs of the law.</p>

	<p>Is there an opportunity here? Possibly. Put together a team to develop and execute strategies for winning over a significant proportion of the customer base from the competing firm. What are some of the avenues open for attack? Anticipate the likely response of the competing firm.</p>
 ]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Ryan Muldoon</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2007/06/27/review-scott-e-page-the-difference/comment-page-1/#comment-202199</link>
		<dc:creator>Ryan Muldoon</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 28 Jun 2007 05:29:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2007/06/27/review-scott-e-page-the-difference/#comment-202199</guid>
		<description>functional:
I think you might be fighting with a strawman here.  You seem to be focused on a claim &quot;one should hire dumber people because they will be more diverse&quot;, whereas the claim that Page actually makes is that (given certain conditions about the kind of problem) &quot;one should hire a diverse group of people, even if that means that some of them might be individually lower-achieving&quot;.
The reason why this might have gotten confusing is that, if we look at how we might want to design a simulation to test this hypothesis, and we stick with the hill-climbing problem that Page uses, we find that the only way to get diversity of agents is to have them be &quot;dumber&quot;.  If we implement fully-rational agents (ones that always go uphill), they can get stuck at local maxima on a given landscape.  If we implement agents that aren&#039;t quite smart enough that they always want to go uphill, and are in fact dumb in different ways, we find that they wander off those local maxima, and eventually find themselves at the global maximum.  This is glossing over a bunch of details of course, but the basic idea is that in a simulation, you usually only have one way to be fully rational, and a lot of ways to be less than rational (unless one includes something like a difference in your priors amongst the fully rational).  
So, I think page would be happy to claim that if you can find a bunch of top 1% lawyers that all happened to be extremely diverse somehow in the relevant ways (maybe some started as engineers, others were english majors, and still others were philosophers, and some grew up in the inner city, others grew up in an ethnic enclave, etc etc) that would be great.  But the more interesting claim is that what might be socially optimal for the group is different from what is individually optimal for a member of the group in a decision-making context.  You may get the prediction right 85% of the time, but it isn&#039;t very useful to add someone who gets it right those same 85%.  It would be better to add someone who gets it right only 70% of the time, but can get it right in some of the cases where you get it wrong.  The goal is to increase coverage of the problem space.  Sometimes this will not be the same as hiring the highest-achieving individuals.  But it is not claiming that one should hire the dumb people - it is claiming that you should hire people that have different approaches to the same problem.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>functional:<br />
I think you might be fighting with a strawman here.  You seem to be focused on a claim &#8220;one should hire dumber people because they will be more diverse&#8221;, whereas the claim that Page actually makes is that (given certain conditions about the kind of problem) &#8220;one should hire a diverse group of people, even if that means that some of them might be individually lower-achieving&#8221;.<br />
The reason why this might have gotten confusing is that, if we look at how we might want to design a simulation to test this hypothesis, and we stick with the hill-climbing problem that Page uses, we find that the only way to get diversity of agents is to have them be &#8220;dumber&#8221;.  If we implement fully-rational agents (ones that always go uphill), they can get stuck at local maxima on a given landscape.  If we implement agents that aren&#8217;t quite smart enough that they always want to go uphill, and are in fact dumb in different ways, we find that they wander off those local maxima, and eventually find themselves at the global maximum.  This is glossing over a bunch of details of course, but the basic idea is that in a simulation, you usually only have one way to be fully rational, and a lot of ways to be less than rational (unless one includes something like a difference in your priors amongst the fully rational).<br />
So, I think page would be happy to claim that if you can find a bunch of top 1% lawyers that all happened to be extremely diverse somehow in the relevant ways (maybe some started as engineers, others were english majors, and still others were philosophers, and some grew up in the inner city, others grew up in an ethnic enclave, etc etc) that would be great.  But the more interesting claim is that what might be socially optimal for the group is different from what is individually optimal for a member of the group in a decision-making context.  You may get the prediction right 85% of the time, but it isn&#8217;t very useful to add someone who gets it right those same 85%.  It would be better to add someone who gets it right only 70% of the time, but can get it right in some of the cases where you get it wrong.  The goal is to increase coverage of the problem space.  Sometimes this will not be the same as hiring the highest-achieving individuals.  But it is not claiming that one should hire the dumb people &#8211; it is claiming that you should hire people that have different approaches to the same problem.</p>
 ]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: functional</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2007/06/27/review-scott-e-page-the-difference/comment-page-1/#comment-202184</link>
		<dc:creator>functional</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 28 Jun 2007 01:19:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2007/06/27/review-scott-e-page-the-difference/#comment-202184</guid>
		<description>&lt;i&gt;teams of diverse individuals who have at least some knowledge that’s germane to the problem will outperform homogeneous ones.&lt;/i&gt;

Look, I can accept this.  Intellectual diversity &gt; intellectual homogeneity.  What I find to be a complete non sequitur is this notion that people who make lower grades and who attend lower-ranked colleges are thereby more intellectually &quot;diverse.&quot;  Says who?  In what field is that true?  Stop being so damn abstract (this goes for Henry too) and give a specific example.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p><i>teams of diverse individuals who have at least some knowledge that&#8217;s germane to the problem will outperform homogeneous ones.</i></p>

	<p>Look, I can accept this.  Intellectual diversity > intellectual homogeneity.  What I find to be a complete non sequitur is this notion that people who make lower grades and who attend lower-ranked colleges are thereby more intellectually &#8220;diverse.&#8221;  Says who?  In what field is that true?  Stop being so damn abstract (this goes for Henry too) and give a specific example.</p>
 ]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: john c. halasz</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2007/06/27/review-scott-e-page-the-difference/comment-page-1/#comment-202175</link>
		<dc:creator>john c. halasz</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 27 Jun 2007 23:54:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2007/06/27/review-scott-e-page-the-difference/#comment-202175</guid>
		<description>The book reviewed addresses the benefits of a diversity of perspectives in the information-aggregation underlying decision-making processes, but it doesn&#039;t seem to address the issues of organizational structures, how decisions are transmitted, implemented and enforced, and the relations between organizations and their extra-organizational social &quot;environments&quot;. Hence its perspective seems confined only to academic, professional, or business sites of decision-making, but it doesn&#039;t seem to address the larger processes and stakes by which decision-making gets generated, channeled and skewed. Conflicts and communicative opacities in decision-making are not simply the result of differing &quot;preference orderings&quot;, but of fundamentally different distributions of stakes, life-chances, fates and ways-of-life, hence of values and interests that are not reducible to optional &quot;preferences&quot;. Class struggle and other forms of social inequality and exclusion can&#039;t really be eliminated from the &quot;picture&quot;, and that seems to be a horse-pill that the book doesn&#039;t sugar-coat because it doesn&#039;t even swallow it. It may well be that we would all be better off, if controlling institutional hierarchies and their decision-making elites were more open to diversity. But that doesn&#039;t address the question of the &quot;necessities&quot; of such hierarchies and the interactions between different organizations in controlling and regulating their external social &quot;environments&quot; and those who must live in those &quot;environments&quot; and be subject to regulatory impositions. So aren&#039;t we just dealing here with another liberal academic exercize in attempting to rationalize and reconcile formal equality and substantive exclusion in the name of &quot;democracy&quot;? (N.B.: this comment is an equal opportunity employer; however, lawyers need not apply.)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>The book reviewed addresses the benefits of a diversity of perspectives in the information-aggregation underlying decision-making processes, but it doesn&#8217;t seem to address the issues of organizational structures, how decisions are transmitted, implemented and enforced, and the relations between organizations and their extra-organizational social &#8220;environments&#8221;. Hence its perspective seems confined only to academic, professional, or business sites of decision-making, but it doesn&#8217;t seem to address the larger processes and stakes by which decision-making gets generated, channeled and skewed. Conflicts and communicative opacities in decision-making are not simply the result of differing &#8220;preference orderings&#8221;, but of fundamentally different distributions of stakes, life-chances, fates and ways-of-life, hence of values and interests that are not reducible to optional &#8220;preferences&#8221;. Class struggle and other forms of social inequality and exclusion can&#8217;t really be eliminated from the &#8220;picture&#8221;, and that seems to be a horse-pill that the book doesn&#8217;t sugar-coat because it doesn&#8217;t even swallow it. It may well be that we would all be better off, if controlling institutional hierarchies and their decision-making elites were more open to diversity. But that doesn&#8217;t address the question of the &#8220;necessities&#8221; of such hierarchies and the interactions between different organizations in controlling and regulating their external social &#8220;environments&#8221; and those who must live in those &#8220;environments&#8221; and be subject to regulatory impositions. So aren&#8217;t we just dealing here with another liberal academic exercize in attempting to rationalize and reconcile formal equality and substantive exclusion in the name of &#8220;democracy&#8221;? (N.B.: this comment is an equal opportunity employer; however, lawyers need not apply.)</p>
 ]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: F. Blair</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2007/06/27/review-scott-e-page-the-difference/comment-page-1/#comment-202171</link>
		<dc:creator>F. Blair</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 27 Jun 2007 23:37:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2007/06/27/review-scott-e-page-the-difference/#comment-202171</guid>
		<description>Functional, let&#039;s say, for the sake of argument, that in the case of the law, the benefits of better writing/arguing/research skills outweigh the improvement in problem-solving and strategizing that you would get from having a more diverse legal team. Page is not saying that, in some circumstances, the benefits of expertise outweigh those of diversity. He is saying -- and demonstrating -- that when it comes to a wide range of complex problems -- including things like forecasting the future, choosing from among an array of possible tactical or strategic options, etc. -- teams of diverse individuals who have at least some knowledge that&#039;s germane to the problem will outperform homogeneous ones.

Your incredulity at this argument is itself a demonstration of Page&#039;s point. There is a vast literature out there on the limits of expertise and the fact that expert knowledge is, in general, no better calibrated than amateur knowledge. (In other words, most experts don&#039;t know what they know and what they don&#039;t know -- they&#039;re as confident in their wrong judgments as in their right ones.) There is also a vast literature out there on the perils of homogeneity in groups, and the way homogeneous groups find it difficult to see their own blind spots and to anticipate problems. We know that experts are likely to be homogeneous in their thinking, because that&#039;s what gets them defined as experts -- in general, expertise consists in performing well according to certain well-defined protocols. So teams made up of the cream of the crop, particularly those that have all been educated at the same universities, are more likely to be (not guaranteed to be, but more likely to be) homogeneous than teams that draw from a wider range of performance abilities. The benefits of the latter may not outweigh the former in all cases, but that the benefits of the latter exist has been demonstrated both in the laboratory and empirically. Familiarize yourself with the literature, and then come back and explain why it&#039;s wrong, instead of simply offering up hypotheses.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Functional, let&#8217;s say, for the sake of argument, that in the case of the law, the benefits of better writing/arguing/research skills outweigh the improvement in problem-solving and strategizing that you would get from having a more diverse legal team. Page is not saying that, in some circumstances, the benefits of expertise outweigh those of diversity. He is saying&#8212;and demonstrating&#8212;that when it comes to a wide range of complex problems&#8212;including things like forecasting the future, choosing from among an array of possible tactical or strategic options, etc.&#8212;teams of diverse individuals who have at least some knowledge that&#8217;s germane to the problem will outperform homogeneous ones.</p>

	<p>Your incredulity at this argument is itself a demonstration of Page&#8217;s point. There is a vast literature out there on the limits of expertise and the fact that expert knowledge is, in general, no better calibrated than amateur knowledge. (In other words, most experts don&#8217;t know what they know and what they don&#8217;t know&#8212;they&#8217;re as confident in their wrong judgments as in their right ones.) There is also a vast literature out there on the perils of homogeneity in groups, and the way homogeneous groups find it difficult to see their own blind spots and to anticipate problems. We know that experts are likely to be homogeneous in their thinking, because that&#8217;s what gets them defined as experts&#8212;in general, expertise consists in performing well according to certain well-defined protocols. So teams made up of the cream of the crop, particularly those that have all been educated at the same universities, are more likely to be (not guaranteed to be, but more likely to be) homogeneous than teams that draw from a wider range of performance abilities. The benefits of the latter may not outweigh the former in all cases, but that the benefits of the latter exist has been demonstrated both in the laboratory and empirically. Familiarize yourself with the literature, and then come back and explain why it&#8217;s wrong, instead of simply offering up hypotheses.</p>
 ]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: functional</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2007/06/27/review-scott-e-page-the-difference/comment-page-1/#comment-202151</link>
		<dc:creator>functional</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 27 Jun 2007 21:21:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2007/06/27/review-scott-e-page-the-difference/#comment-202151</guid>
		<description>I grasp your point, but analogies involving steamboats and motorcars are (trust me) vanishingly rare in law firm work.  Whereas your previous claim was that &quot;lawyers &lt;i&gt;necessarily&lt;/i&gt; rely on analogical reasoning in order to make their briefs coherent and their claims stick.&quot;  If you&#039;re talking about analogies to &quot;life experiences&quot; and whatnot, that broad claim just isn&#039;t true as to the overwhelming majority of cases.  In any event, I don&#039;t see how, at least in the law, there&#039;s a viable argument for hiring lesser qualified people just on the theory that (1) the law firm might occasionally have a case where odd analogies are potentially useful; 2) the lesser qualified people might have some marginal advantage in being able to think up such analogies that would outshine the analogies perceived by smarter lawyers; and 3) the benefit produced by the new analogy in that one-in-a-hundred case would outweigh the fact that the lesser-qualified lawyers might (on average) be less capable at writing and arguing and legal research (which are relevant to about 100% of all cases).</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>I grasp your point, but analogies involving steamboats and motorcars are (trust me) vanishingly rare in law firm work.  Whereas your previous claim was that &#8220;lawyers <i>necessarily</i> rely on analogical reasoning in order to make their briefs coherent and their claims stick.&#8221;  If you&#8217;re talking about analogies to &#8220;life experiences&#8221; and whatnot, that broad claim just isn&#8217;t true as to the overwhelming majority of cases.  In any event, I don&#8217;t see how, at least in the law, there&#8217;s a viable argument for hiring lesser qualified people just on the theory that (1) the law firm might occasionally have a case where odd analogies are potentially useful; 2) the lesser qualified people might have some marginal advantage in being able to think up such analogies that would outshine the analogies perceived by smarter lawyers; and 3) the benefit produced by the new analogy in that one-in-a-hundred case would outweigh the fact that the lesser-qualified lawyers might (on average) be less capable at writing and arguing and legal research (which are relevant to about 100% of all cases).</p>
 ]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Henry</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2007/06/27/review-scott-e-page-the-difference/comment-page-1/#comment-202142</link>
		<dc:creator>Henry</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 27 Jun 2007 20:41:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2007/06/27/review-scott-e-page-the-difference/#comment-202142</guid>
		<description>Not so. Grabbing from Scott Brewer&#039;s &quot;Exemplary Reasoning: Semantics, Pragmatics, and the Rational Force of Legal Argument by Analogy,&quot; 109 Harvard Law Review 923 (1996), which is a fairly widely cited article in these debates, we get famous cases where judges had to decide whether steamboats were more like inns or motor cars, whether motor homes were more like parked cars or houses etc. Arguing about analogies of this kind clearly _does_ require some level of jesuitical legal skill that can be imparted by training. It also, however, very obviously requires an ability to draw creatively on forms of knowledge and experience that are not legally codified. 

More generally, the art of creating apt analogies involves what Brewer describes as &quot;an uncodifiable imaginative moment&quot; which &quot;is not unfamiliar in other areas of reasoning in whose rational force our intellectual culture has placed great confidence - namely both the empirical and the demonstrative sciences.&quot; (p.954). Page demonstrates how these &quot;uncodifiable imaginative moments&quot; in the natural sciences may draw upon heuristics from completely non-scientific experiences, including those from everyday life histories, allowing apparently insoluble problems to be understood in novel and illuminating ways. 
It seems to beggar belief that this doesn&#039;t apply in the law too (and indeed I&#039;m quite sure from extended experience with lawyers that it does). It&#039;s a commonplace among people studying innovation that the sources of creativity often exactly involve the application of perspectives or heuristics from one field of endeavour into another, which is apparently entirely unrelated (Page provides us with one conceptual language that we can use to grasp how this happens). 

This is why simply hiring people who graduated near the top of their class at elite schools isn&#039;t necessarily a good idea. These people are _very_ likely to have the appropriate jesuitical skills. They may however have quite similar backgrounds in other ways, meaning that as a group they have less conceptual resources to draw on when dealing with issues that require genuine creativity than would a more variegated bunch of people.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Not so. Grabbing from Scott Brewer&#8217;s &#8220;Exemplary Reasoning: Semantics, Pragmatics, and the Rational Force of Legal Argument by Analogy,&#8221; 109 Harvard Law Review 923 (1996), which is a fairly widely cited article in these debates, we get famous cases where judges had to decide whether steamboats were more like inns or motor cars, whether motor homes were more like parked cars or houses etc. Arguing about analogies of this kind clearly <em>does</em> require some level of jesuitical legal skill that can be imparted by training. It also, however, very obviously requires an ability to draw creatively on forms of knowledge and experience that are not legally codified.</p>

	<p>More generally, the art of creating apt analogies involves what Brewer describes as &#8220;an uncodifiable imaginative moment&#8221; which &#8220;is not unfamiliar in other areas of reasoning in whose rational force our intellectual culture has placed great confidence &#8211; namely both the empirical and the demonstrative sciences.&#8221; (p.954). Page demonstrates how these &#8220;uncodifiable imaginative moments&#8221; in the natural sciences may draw upon heuristics from completely non-scientific experiences, including those from everyday life histories, allowing apparently insoluble problems to be understood in novel and illuminating ways.<br />
It seems to beggar belief that this doesn&#8217;t apply in the law too (and indeed I&#8217;m quite sure from extended experience with lawyers that it does). It&#8217;s a commonplace among people studying innovation that the sources of creativity often exactly involve the application of perspectives or heuristics from one field of endeavour into another, which is apparently entirely unrelated (Page provides us with one conceptual language that we can use to grasp how this happens).</p>

	<p>This is why simply hiring people who graduated near the top of their class at elite schools isn&#8217;t necessarily a good idea. These people are <em>very</em> likely to have the appropriate jesuitical skills. They may however have quite similar backgrounds in other ways, meaning that as a group they have less conceptual resources to draw on when dealing with issues that require genuine creativity than would a more variegated bunch of people.</p>
 ]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
</channel>
</rss>
