Comments on: Oz elections

By: bh

bh — Wed, 07 Nov 2007 23:34:04 +0000

John, you should post a link to a photo of the journalist who might defeat the Prime Minister.

By: marcel

marcel — Wed, 07 Nov 2007 14:43:11 +0000

This North American feels dizzy. Looking at your map is making all the blood run to my head.

By: P O'Neill

P O'Neill — Wed, 07 Nov 2007 14:41:00 +0000

At the rate things are going, the people could be going to the polling booth with the Australian dollar at parity with the US dollar, which is not a benchmark that either country will be especially pleased about.

By: Disinterested Observer

Disinterested Observer — Wed, 07 Nov 2007 09:33:23 +0000

Actually, the latest ABS income surveys state “while it is difficult to assess changes in income distribution over time due to the methodological improvements introduced with the 2003-04 survey, it appears that there has been no significant change in income inequality from the mid 1990s to 2005-06. The change in income distribution since 1994-95 is affected by the inclusion of all salary sacrificed amounts in 2003-04 and 2005-06, and the exclusion of an unknown amount in 1994-95.” and “Some of the change in some of the income distribution measures between 2003-04 and 2005-06 reflects the changes in personal income tax rates and thresholds. For example, if the 2003-04 taxation rates and thresholds had been applied to 2005-06 incomes, the Gini coefficient would have been 0.303 rather than 0.307.” So the tax scale changes – to date – have had realatively minor effects on income distribution.
See http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Latestproducts/6523.0Main%20Features22005-06?opendocument&tabname=Summary&prodno=6523.0&issue=2005-06&num=&view=

The report also shows that changes in social security benefits, particularly family payments have had a progressive effect.

By: SG

SG — Wed, 07 Nov 2007 09:14:37 +0000

John, I suspect that is a redistribution of government expenditure up the social scale and into inflationary measures like first home buyers’ grants. This has made it easy for the labour party to hammer him on inflation issues now, and just goes to show that if you pork-barrel your way into election wins, they may still actually come back to bite you… and what a bite it looks like he’s going to get!

By: John Quiggin

John Quiggin — Wed, 07 Nov 2007 07:29:16 +0000

sg, I take your point, but these are relative terms.

Also, I think you underestimate the extent to which Howard has given ground on this issue. In 11 years in office he has not reduced the ratio of public expenditure to GDP or scrapped any major public expenditure program. Even the tax cuts do little more than maintain the status quo in this respect, after bracket creep.

By: SG

SG — Wed, 07 Nov 2007 07:04:48 +0000

John I take issue with your claim Kevin Rudd (opposition leader, for other readers) has been rushing to the centre. He has been rushing to the right, which is where the modern radical conservatism of Howard has forced the centre to go. Tax cuts at the expense of basic public services, govt subsidies of private schools, and his rather weak repeal of the workplace relations laws aren’t the act of a centrist party (at least not in Australian politics). A centrist party at the moment would be promising to spend John Howards 34 billion in tax cuts on social services, not offering to nearly match it.

(not that this will make much of a dent on the sweet, sweet feeling of satisfaction I am going to get when the Rodent has to stand in front of national TV and announce the loss of his own seat to a journalist from the TV station he hates. And I’ll be able to watch it live in Japan thanks to that same TV station. Oh the joy!…)

By: John Quiggin

John Quiggin — Wed, 07 Nov 2007 05:51:38 +0000

2-fixed, thanks. I wasn’t counting the US as a CoW member,but I should have
3. fixed, thanks

By: Down and Out of Sài Gòn

Down and Out of Sài Gòn — Wed, 07 Nov 2007 05:44:18 +0000

1: yes, and 4: yes. See this Poll Bludger thread.

By: Leinad

Leinad — Wed, 07 Nov 2007 05:34:37 +0000

Henry, yes it is a distinct possibility: the latest poll from Bennelong had his challenger (a former journalist/TV presenter) Maxine McKew ahead 52-48—most polling has had her at 53-47 or thereabouts since midyear. The more likely a Liberal defeat appears the better her chances, as Howard has announced he would retire from politics were the Liberal party to lose.

By: Maria

Maria — Wed, 07 Nov 2007 05:29:52 +0000

Isn’t the opposition running a very high profile woman (newsreader?) in Howard’s constituency?

By: Leinad

Leinad — Wed, 07 Nov 2007 05:29:40 +0000

End of 2006

By: jacob

jacob — Wed, 07 Nov 2007 04:52:04 +0000

Sorry to be niggling, but the Wikipedia article you link to has Australia as the fourth (not third) largest contingent in Iraq, after the US, UK, and Georgia.

By: Henry

Henry — Wed, 07 Nov 2007 04:17:55 +0000

John – there was a bit in the FT a couple of weeks ago suggesting that Howard might lose his own seat – is that still a possibility???