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	<title>Comments on: Poor US?</title>
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	<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2007/11/10/poor-us/</link>
	<description>Out of the crooked timber of humanity, no straight thing was ever made</description>
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		<title>By: GreatZamfir</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2007/11/10/poor-us/comment-page-1/#comment-217983</link>
		<dc:creator>GreatZamfir</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 12 Nov 2007 21:08:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2007/11/10/poor-us/#comment-217983</guid>
		<description>Another random comparison: Dell notebook XPS M1710
NL: 1499 Euros (at current rates $2200)
US: 1999 dollar

The differences appear to be almost the VAT. ANd this for a more or less American product, specifically from the electronics category people go to New York to buy.
I suspect the VAT is really what gives people the idea that everything is cheap in the US.

Now, those people who measure PPP are probably not stupid, and probably many things, including books, are cheaper in the US, if only because of the larger market. But I wonder what part of the difference is in land pricesand other things affected by this, and reflecting the lower population density of the US</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Another random comparison: Dell notebook <span class="caps">XPS M1710</span><br />
NL: 1499 Euros (at current rates $2200)<br />
US: 1999 dollar</p>

	<p>The differences appear to be almost the <span class="caps">VAT</span>. ANd this for a more or less American product, specifically from the electronics category people go to New York to buy.<br />
I suspect the <span class="caps">VAT</span> is really what gives people the idea that everything is cheap in the US.</p>

	<p>Now, those people who measure <span class="caps">PPP</span> are probably not stupid, and probably many things, including books, are cheaper in the US, if only because of the larger market. But I wonder what part of the difference is in land pricesand other things affected by this, and reflecting the lower population density of the US</p>
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		<title>By: GreatZamfir</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2007/11/10/poor-us/comment-page-1/#comment-217981</link>
		<dc:creator>GreatZamfir</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 12 Nov 2007 20:47:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2007/11/10/poor-us/#comment-217981</guid>
		<description>On the matter of things that are cheaper in europe,
 Ikea apparently is. I compared their US website with the Dutch one, and Dutch prices are significantly lower. Example: (almost) the same mattress Sultan Enebak 
NL 169 Euro US 299 $
Cutting board Boholmen 
NL 3.99 Euro, US 6.99 $

If you take the 19% VAT in the Netherlands into account, those are pretty big differences for the same product, from the same store, probably made and shipped from the same China.

(On a side note: the Dutch standard mattress size is apparently 11 cm taller than the US version, while the US one is 7 cm wider. I wonder what that means)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>On the matter of things that are cheaper in europe,<br />
Ikea apparently is. I compared their US website with the Dutch one, and Dutch prices are significantly lower. Example: (almost) the same mattress Sultan Enebak<br />
<span class="caps">NL 169 </span>Euro <span class="caps">US 299 </span>$<br />
Cutting board Boholmen<br />
<span class="caps">NL 3</span>.99 Euro, <span class="caps">US 6</span>.99 $</p>

	<p>If you take the 19% <span class="caps">VAT</span> in the Netherlands into account, those are pretty big differences for the same product, from the same store, probably made and shipped from the same China.</p>

	<p>(On a side note: the Dutch standard mattress size is apparently 11 cm taller than the US version, while the US one is 7 cm wider. I wonder what that means)</p>
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		<title>By: Tim Worstall</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2007/11/10/poor-us/comment-page-1/#comment-217922</link>
		<dc:creator>Tim Worstall</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 12 Nov 2007 10:43:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2007/11/10/poor-us/#comment-217922</guid>
		<description>Smeeding does expressly consider health: the bottom 10% in the US are all covered by Medicaid for example. He also looks at food prices and concludes that on that basis Americans are better off.

Of course, ignoring positional considerations is exactly what I&#039;m doing by looking at absolute rather than relative numbers. Which is the point of doing so of course, for relative measures depend upon position.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Smeeding does expressly consider health: the bottom 10% in the US are all covered by Medicaid for example. He also looks at food prices and concludes that on that basis Americans are better off.</p>

	<p>Of course, ignoring positional considerations is exactly what I&#8217;m doing by looking at absolute rather than relative numbers. Which is the point of doing so of course, for relative measures depend upon position.</p>
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		<title>By: Jack</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2007/11/10/poor-us/comment-page-1/#comment-217857</link>
		<dc:creator>Jack</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 11 Nov 2007 21:53:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2007/11/10/poor-us/#comment-217857</guid>
		<description>Tim, the Smeeding figures don&#039;t include the price or quality of many services such as education, health and public transport that might make the figure a measure of quality of life, nor of the amount of work those people are doing. and public transport. The PPP comparison assumes USDSEK = 9.2 as opposed to  the markets current assessment that 6.3 is a fair swap. At the market rate Smeedings figures suggest the figure is 55% not 38%. 

There is approximately one way to look at the figures that makes it look as if being poor in the US is a good as being poor in Sweden. That involves ignoring the market, positional considerations, labour, state services, security and longevity. I think that might be counted as cherry picking. The use of absolute is irritating because all the statistics actually say is that the poor have equal access to Big Macs in both places.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Tim, the Smeeding figures don&#8217;t include the price or quality of many services such as education, health and public transport that might make the figure a measure of quality of life, nor of the amount of work those people are doing. and public transport. The <span class="caps">PPP</span> comparison assumes <span class="caps">USDSEK </span>= 9.2 as opposed to  the markets current assessment that 6.3 is a fair swap. At the market rate Smeedings figures suggest the figure is 55% not 38%.</p>

	<p>There is approximately one way to look at the figures that makes it look as if being poor in the US is a good as being poor in Sweden. That involves ignoring the market, positional considerations, labour, state services, security and longevity. I think that might be counted as cherry picking. The use of absolute is irritating because all the statistics actually say is that the poor have equal access to Big Macs in both places.</p>
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		<title>By: John Quiggin</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2007/11/10/poor-us/comment-page-1/#comment-217856</link>
		<dc:creator>John Quiggin</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 11 Nov 2007 21:52:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2007/11/10/poor-us/#comment-217856</guid>
		<description>Tim, the same figures show that the US poor are worse off than those in France, Norway, Germany, Dennmark, the Netherlands, Belgium, Canada and Switzerland  so I&#039;d say that  picking the two exceptions is picking cherries.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Tim, the same figures show that the US poor are worse off than those in France, Norway, Germany, Dennmark, the Netherlands, Belgium, Canada and Switzerland  so I&#8217;d say that  picking the two exceptions is picking cherries.</p>
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		<title>By: Z</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2007/11/10/poor-us/comment-page-1/#comment-217808</link>
		<dc:creator>Z</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 11 Nov 2007 17:26:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2007/11/10/poor-us/#comment-217808</guid>
		<description>Just to answer a possible mystery, books are more expensive in France because the prices of books are set by the state. You are not allowed to sell books below a certain price. Fixed prices are supposed to protect loca book dealers from competition against corporations. According to my cousin in the trade, it does work.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Just to answer a possible mystery, books are more expensive in France because the prices of books are set by the state. You are not allowed to sell books below a certain price. Fixed prices are supposed to protect loca book dealers from competition against corporations. According to my cousin in the trade, it does work.</p>
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		<title>By: Tim Worstall</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2007/11/10/poor-us/comment-page-1/#comment-217774</link>
		<dc:creator>Tim Worstall</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 11 Nov 2007 12:21:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2007/11/10/poor-us/#comment-217774</guid>
		<description>I&#039;m sorry? Cherry picking? When a left leaning think tank puts out figures, derived from the major international comparison of such, showing that the absolute standard of living of the poor in the US is the same as that in Finland and Sweden, I&#039;m cherry picking?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>I&#8217;m sorry? Cherry picking? When a left leaning think tank puts out figures, derived from the major international comparison of such, showing that the absolute standard of living of the poor in the US is the same as that in Finland and Sweden, I&#8217;m cherry picking?</p>
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		<title>By: John Quiggin</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2007/11/10/poor-us/comment-page-1/#comment-217773</link>
		<dc:creator>John Quiggin</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 11 Nov 2007 12:14:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2007/11/10/poor-us/#comment-217773</guid>
		<description>You&#039;re cherrypicking here, Tim. The US and UK are consistently near the bottom in assessments of this kind. It happens that this time Sweden and Finland are also low, but that&#039;s a far less consistent result.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>You&#8217;re cherrypicking here, Tim. The US and UK are consistently near the bottom in assessments of this kind. It happens that this time Sweden and Finland are also low, but that&#8217;s a far less consistent result.</p>
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		<title>By: Tim Worstall</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2007/11/10/poor-us/comment-page-1/#comment-217766</link>
		<dc:creator>Tim Worstall</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 11 Nov 2007 11:29:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2007/11/10/poor-us/#comment-217766</guid>
		<description>Figure 8D here.
http://www.stateofworkingamerica.org/swa06_ch08_international.pdf
Drawn from Smeeding and Rainwater 2001 and Smeeding 2006.
The bottom 10% of US households receive 39% of median US income.
The bottom 10% of Swedish and Finnish households receive 38% of median US income.
It&#039;s difficult to say that, on an absolute basis (I agree that the situation is reversed for a relative measurement of poverty), it&#039;s worse to be poor in the US.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Figure 8D here.<br />
<a href="http://www.stateofworkingamerica.org/swa06_ch08_international.pdf" rel="nofollow">http://www.stateofworkingamerica.org/swa06_ch08_international.pdf</a><br />
Drawn from Smeeding and Rainwater 2001 and Smeeding 2006.<br />
The bottom 10% of US households receive 39% of median US income.<br />
The bottom 10% of Swedish and Finnish households receive 38% of median US income.<br />
It&#8217;s difficult to say that, on an absolute basis (I agree that the situation is reversed for a relative measurement of poverty), it&#8217;s worse to be poor in the US.</p>
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		<title>By: Cian</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2007/11/10/poor-us/comment-page-1/#comment-217756</link>
		<dc:creator>Cian</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 11 Nov 2007 10:38:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2007/11/10/poor-us/#comment-217756</guid>
		<description>&quot;Sure it does. Most people are selling/buying within a national economy. International trade does affect this, for sure, but no one actually expects international pricing to be equal…not in the real world.&quot;

But Amazon UK is competing with PCWorld (UK), and is going to be far less affected by planning laws/high cost of retail space. That&#039;s what I meant by online.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>&#8220;Sure it does. Most people are selling/buying within a national economy. International trade does affect this, for sure, but no one actually expects international pricing to be equal&#8230;not in the real world.&#8221;</p>

	<p>But Amazon UK is competing with PCWorld (UK), and is going to be far less affected by planning laws/high cost of retail space. That&#8217;s what I meant by online.</p>
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		<title>By: John Quiggin</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2007/11/10/poor-us/comment-page-1/#comment-217753</link>
		<dc:creator>John Quiggin</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 11 Nov 2007 10:26:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2007/11/10/poor-us/#comment-217753</guid>
		<description>You&#039;re stretching a bit there, Tim. To quote Smeeding &lt;blockquote&gt;Using the official poverty line, the United States falls to second in the poverty ratings, with the United Kingdom having higher overall poverty rates using this standard, as shown in Table 2. At the 125 percent line, the United States ranks fourth among these nations. The United States looks somewhat better using either of these “absolute” measures than with the relative measure due to its higher overall standard of living, a general finding that has been confirmed in other studies (Kenworthy 2004). In terms of vulnerable groups, however poverty for United States children remains very high (ranking second by either standard) even within this set of rich nations. And poor United States residents, especially poor children, do not compare well to those in other nations based on PPP-adjusted real incomes (Rainwater and Smeeding 2003; Smeeding
and Rainwater 2004).&lt;/blockquote&gt; And this was in 2000, which was probably the best year ever for the poor in the US.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>You&#8217;re stretching a bit there, Tim. To quote Smeeding <blockquote>Using the official poverty line, the United States falls to second in the poverty ratings, with the United Kingdom having higher overall poverty rates using this standard, as shown in Table 2. At the 125 percent line, the United States ranks fourth among these nations. The United States looks somewhat better using either of these &#8220;absolute&#8221; measures than with the relative measure due to its higher overall standard of living, a general finding that has been confirmed in other studies (Kenworthy 2004). In terms of vulnerable groups, however poverty for United States children remains very high (ranking second by either standard) even within this set of rich nations. And poor United States residents, especially poor children, do not compare well to those in other nations based on <span class="caps">PPP</span>-adjusted real incomes (Rainwater and Smeeding 2003; Smeeding<br />
and Rainwater 2004).</blockquote> And this was in 2000, which was probably the best year ever for the poor in the US.</p>
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		<title>By: Tim Worstall</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2007/11/10/poor-us/comment-page-1/#comment-217746</link>
		<dc:creator>Tim Worstall</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 11 Nov 2007 09:17:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2007/11/10/poor-us/#comment-217746</guid>
		<description>&quot;It is indeed very hard to argue that your average person in the US is better off than the average citizen of an average comparable nation. For the majority of Americans, they would indeed be better off raising children in any one of a dozen other countries. Only the upper class is better off in this nation, primarily because the entire system is rigged in their favor.&quot;

Well, there are people who will disagree there. Like Smeeding, who looked at the numbers from the Luxembourg Income Study. I&#039;ve forgotten the exact numbers (they ended up as a chart in the EPI&#039;s State of Working America report one year) but, at PPP, the poorest 10% in the US have the same percentage of US median income as the poorest 10% of Swedes have of US median income. That&#039;s the after tax, after benefit number.
He does look at things like health care and university education, also notes that US food costs are lower and thinks that those are largely a wash.
Now, agreed that&#039;s the bottom 10%, not the average person. But to say that the poor are poorer in the US in an absolute sense (as opposed to relative) seems not to be true.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>&#8220;It is indeed very hard to argue that your average person in the US is better off than the average citizen of an average comparable nation. For the majority of Americans, they would indeed be better off raising children in any one of a dozen other countries. Only the upper class is better off in this nation, primarily because the entire system is rigged in their favor.&#8221;</p>

	<p>Well, there are people who will disagree there. Like Smeeding, who looked at the numbers from the Luxembourg Income Study. I&#8217;ve forgotten the exact numbers (they ended up as a chart in the <span class="caps">EPI</span>&#8217;s State of Working America report one year) but, at <span class="caps">PPP</span>, the poorest 10% in the US have the same percentage of US median income as the poorest 10% of Swedes have of US median income. That&#8217;s the after tax, after benefit number.<br />
He does look at things like health care and university education, also notes that US food costs are lower and thinks that those are largely a wash.<br />
Now, agreed that&#8217;s the bottom 10%, not the average person. But to say that the poor are poorer in the US in an absolute sense (as opposed to relative) seems not to be true.</p>
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		<title>By: a</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2007/11/10/poor-us/comment-page-1/#comment-217730</link>
		<dc:creator>a</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 11 Nov 2007 07:11:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2007/11/10/poor-us/#comment-217730</guid>
		<description>By the way my question is just about Europe vs U.S.  Hong Kong is supposed to be cheap as well.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>By the way my question is just about Europe vs U.S.  Hong Kong is supposed to be cheap as well.</p>
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		<title>By: a</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2007/11/10/poor-us/comment-page-1/#comment-217729</link>
		<dc:creator>a</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 11 Nov 2007 07:07:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2007/11/10/poor-us/#comment-217729</guid>
		<description>&quot;...One problem is that most of the examples we are discussing are US products...&quot;

Mindstorms Lego is Danish.
Canon is Japanese.

Look at the Playstation 3, for another Japanese example.

Why don&#039;t we do it the other way around?  Is there any widely tradeable good that is more expensive in the U.S.?  (OK local grocery products would be more expensive, because they have to bought in the home country and then shipped to the U.S.)  Or do we really need international bureaucrats?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>&#8220;&#8230;One problem is that most of the examples we are discussing are US products&#8230;&#8221;</p>

	<p>Mindstorms Lego is Danish.<br />
Canon is Japanese.</p>

	<p>Look at the Playstation 3, for another Japanese example.</p>

	<p>Why don&#8217;t we do it the other way around?  Is there any widely tradeable good that is more expensive in the U.S.?  (OK local grocery products would be more expensive, because they have to bought in the home country and then shipped to the U.S.)  Or do we really need international bureaucrats?</p>
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		<title>By: P O'Neill</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2007/11/10/poor-us/comment-page-1/#comment-217630</link>
		<dc:creator>P O'Neill</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 10 Nov 2007 23:11:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2007/11/10/poor-us/#comment-217630</guid>
		<description>#22 &lt;em&gt;“…the best predictor of the future exchange rate between any two currencies is the current exchange rate”. There is something about that I find deeply troubling&lt;/em&gt;

It&#039;s well founded in theory but with some confusing intuition and quite a bit of contrary evidence.  But the principle is clear.  If interest rates are similar, then there could not be any expected change in the exchange rate, otherwise all the funds would flow in one direction or the other to take advantage of it (e.g. expected USD depreciation would cause outflow).  And in the magical efficient markets way, such an instantaneous flow would eliminate the expected change.  

As it happens, exchange rate changes are quite difficult to systematically forecast.  But whether interest rate differentials play much of a role in that is another story.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>#22 <em>&#8220;&#8230;the best predictor of the future exchange rate between any two currencies is the current exchange rate&#8221;. There is something about that I find deeply troubling</em></p>

	<p>It&#8217;s well founded in theory but with some confusing intuition and quite a bit of contrary evidence.  But the principle is clear.  If interest rates are similar, then there could not be any expected change in the exchange rate, otherwise all the funds would flow in one direction or the other to take advantage of it (e.g. expected <span class="caps">USD</span> depreciation would cause outflow).  And in the magical efficient markets way, such an instantaneous flow would eliminate the expected change.</p>

	<p>As it happens, exchange rate changes are quite difficult to systematically forecast.  But whether interest rate differentials play much of a role in that is another story.</p>
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