Comments on: Post-Invasion Deaths in Iraq http://crookedtimber.org/2008/01/10/post-invasion-deaths-in-iraq/ Out of the crooked timber of humanity, no straight thing was ever made Sun, 22 Nov 2009 06:15:54 -0800 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.6 hourly 1 By: It’s the count, not the numbers, that counts « Butterflies and Guns http://crookedtimber.org/2008/01/10/post-invasion-deaths-in-iraq/comment-page-5/#comment-224815 It’s the count, not the numbers, that counts « Butterflies and Guns Fri, 18 Jan 2008 13:08:55 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2008/01/10/post-invasion-deaths-in-iraq/#comment-224815 [...] to bomb attacks/violence in the first three years of the invasion, liberation and occupation. The reignited arguments underway about ‘ends’ and ‘means’ miss the original point all [...] [...] to bomb attacks/violence in the first three years of the invasion, liberation and occupation. The reignited arguments underway about ‘ends’ and ‘means’ miss the original point all [...]

]]> By: Order of Magnitude http://crookedtimber.org/2008/01/10/post-invasion-deaths-in-iraq/comment-page-5/#comment-224676 Order of Magnitude Wed, 16 Jan 2008 06:45:37 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2008/01/10/post-invasion-deaths-in-iraq/#comment-224676 walt #214: are you a physician? walt #214: are you a physician?

]]> By: Walt http://crookedtimber.org/2008/01/10/post-invasion-deaths-in-iraq/comment-page-5/#comment-224673 Walt Wed, 16 Jan 2008 04:28:32 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2008/01/10/post-invasion-deaths-in-iraq/#comment-224673 oom, I can only assume that you haven't read the Lancet article. They are obviously written for a medical audience. oom, I can only assume that you haven’t read the Lancet article. They are obviously written for a medical audience.

]]> By: SG http://crookedtimber.org/2008/01/10/post-invasion-deaths-in-iraq/comment-page-5/#comment-224671 SG Wed, 16 Jan 2008 04:24:10 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2008/01/10/post-invasion-deaths-in-iraq/#comment-224671 oom, I have published in public health journals and have never had to declare a political interest. only financial. perhaps you think the Lancet authors were employed by the insurgency? (No actually, don't answer that). Also, expedited reviews are rare but not wrong or sinister, and occur for <i>topical</i> and <i>important</i> issues. Perhaps you aren't aware, but the Iraq war is both. Alex, I think that Kane is referring to a single death which apparently occurred due to coalition bombing before March 2003. This is the origin of the snarky "phantom bombing raids". Kane seems to be the only person on earth unaware of the continuous bombing of Iraq that happened before March 2003. Given he doesn't know that, mentioning types of plane will probably just confuse him further... oom, I have published in public health journals and have never had to declare a political interest. only financial. perhaps you think the Lancet authors were employed by the insurgency? (No actually, don’t answer that).

Also, expedited reviews are rare but not wrong or sinister, and occur for topical and important issues. Perhaps you aren’t aware, but the Iraq war is both.

Alex, I think that Kane is referring to a single death which apparently occurred due to coalition bombing before March 2003. This is the origin of the snarky “phantom bombing raids”. Kane seems to be the only person on earth unaware of the continuous bombing of Iraq that happened before March 2003. Given he doesn’t know that, mentioning types of plane will probably just confuse him further…

]]> By: Donald Johnson http://crookedtimber.org/2008/01/10/post-invasion-deaths-in-iraq/comment-page-5/#comment-224670 Donald Johnson Wed, 16 Jan 2008 03:58:55 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2008/01/10/post-invasion-deaths-in-iraq/#comment-224670 In public health it's assumed people are opposed to high mortality rates. In public health it’s assumed people are opposed to high mortality rates.

]]> By: Order of Magnitude http://crookedtimber.org/2008/01/10/post-invasion-deaths-in-iraq/comment-page-5/#comment-224669 Order of Magnitude Wed, 16 Jan 2008 02:04:13 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2008/01/10/post-invasion-deaths-in-iraq/#comment-224669 sg #208: The deltoid guy is obsessive in his defense of the Lancet studies and the people behind them. #209: "everyone [...] has a political motivation" You see, the Lancet studies were not some liberal arts theoretical construct. They were published in a medical journal and assumed the facade of medical methodology. If you are employed (or stockholder or spouse of employee or stockholder, etc etc) and you write a medical article you have to disclose your 'conflict of interest'. This is akin to liberal intellectuals having to post disclaimers such as "I subscribe to, and write in The Nation, donate money to left wing causes, volunteer for left political campaigns" or whatever. Now, after such a discloseure it would be funny to read said intellectuals' "impartial" views" on things. We could start with CT. So yeah, it's OK to have a political view about Iraq, about the excess deaths there, or anything else, but in medicine you'd have to disclose those biases. They should have written an oped in the Guardian, instead of pretending to write for a medical audience -- which they obviously were not. Second, in medicine expedited reviews are rare. I have done peer reviews -- many academic physicians do -- and they are quite leisurely. Yet BOTH of these studies were timed to precede US elections, and at least one AFAIK got an expedited review. I'd like to see an audit of the L editor's decision process to expedite this review. sg #208: The deltoid guy is obsessive in his defense of the Lancet studies and the people behind them.

#209: “everyone [...] has a political motivation”
You see, the Lancet studies were not some liberal arts theoretical construct. They were published in a medical journal and assumed the facade of medical methodology. If you are employed (or stockholder or spouse of employee or stockholder, etc etc) and you write a medical article you have to disclose your ‘conflict of interest’. This is akin to liberal intellectuals having to post disclaimers such as “I subscribe to, and write in The Nation, donate money to left wing causes, volunteer for left political campaigns” or whatever. Now, after such a discloseure it would be funny to read said intellectuals’ “impartial” views” on things. We could start with CT.

So yeah, it’s OK to have a political view about Iraq, about the excess deaths there, or anything else, but in medicine you’d have to disclose those biases. They should have written an oped in the Guardian, instead of pretending to write for a medical audience—which they obviously were not.

Second, in medicine expedited reviews are rare. I have done peer reviews—many academic physicians do—and they are quite leisurely. Yet BOTH of these studies were timed to precede US elections, and at least one AFAIK got an expedited review. I’d like to see an audit of the L editor’s decision process to expedite this review.

]]> By: Alex http://crookedtimber.org/2008/01/10/post-invasion-deaths-in-iraq/comment-page-5/#comment-224596 Alex Tue, 15 Jan 2008 14:37:46 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2008/01/10/post-invasion-deaths-in-iraq/#comment-224596 <em>phantom US bombing raids</em> I'm reasonably sure the McDonnell-Douglas F-4 Phantom II was not in use over Iraq; oh, that wasn't what you meant? Maybe <a href="http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L10519522.htm" rel="nofollow">this was it</a>: <blockquote>BAGHDAD, Jan 10 (Reuters) - U.S. warplanes dropped 40,000 pounds of bombs on more than 40 targets on Baghdad's southern outskirts on Thursday in a major strike on al Qaeda safe havens, the military said in a statement.</blockquote> <blockquote>The U.S. Air Force dispatched two B-1 bombers and four F-16 fighter jets, aiming at three large target areas in Arab Jabour...</blockquote> phantom US bombing raids

I’m reasonably sure the McDonnell-Douglas F-4 Phantom II was not in use over Iraq; oh, that wasn’t what you meant?

Maybe this was it:

BAGHDAD, Jan 10 (Reuters) – U.S. warplanes dropped 40,000 pounds of bombs on more than 40 targets on Baghdad’s southern outskirts on Thursday in a major strike on al Qaeda safe havens, the military said in a statement.

The U.S. Air Force dispatched two B-1 bombers and four F-16 fighter jets, aiming at three large target areas in Arab Jabour…

]]> By: Donald Johnson http://crookedtimber.org/2008/01/10/post-invasion-deaths-in-iraq/comment-page-5/#comment-224588 Donald Johnson Tue, 15 Jan 2008 12:16:27 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2008/01/10/post-invasion-deaths-in-iraq/#comment-224588 #205-- Why would this matter even if it were true? Everyone who counts the dead in Iraq has a political motivation and hopes to have some kind of policy impact, even if not on a specific election. Are they supposed to do it because counting war dead is a hobby? #205—
Why would this matter even if it were true? Everyone who counts the dead in Iraq has a political motivation and hopes to have some kind of policy impact, even if not on a specific election. Are they supposed to do it because counting war dead is a hobby?

]]> By: SG http://crookedtimber.org/2008/01/10/post-invasion-deaths-in-iraq/comment-page-5/#comment-224580 SG Tue, 15 Jan 2008 06:52:42 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2008/01/10/post-invasion-deaths-in-iraq/#comment-224580 om, go read the comprehensive trashing of your theory over at Deltoid. om, go read the comprehensive trashing of your theory over at Deltoid.

]]> By: Order of Magnitude http://crookedtimber.org/2008/01/10/post-invasion-deaths-in-iraq/comment-page-5/#comment-224579 Order of Magnitude Tue, 15 Jan 2008 06:05:29 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2008/01/10/post-invasion-deaths-in-iraq/#comment-224579 ...Lancet studies ... …Lancet studies …

]]> By: Order of Magnitude http://crookedtimber.org/2008/01/10/post-invasion-deaths-in-iraq/comment-page-5/#comment-224578 Order of Magnitude Tue, 15 Jan 2008 06:05:10 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2008/01/10/post-invasion-deaths-in-iraq/#comment-224578 You all seem to ignore the uncanny timing of both Lancet study, shortly before US elections. The friendly treatment accorded to the papers (including the expedited review) at a minimum suggests collusion between the authors and the editors, with the intent of influencing the outcome of the elections. You all seem to ignore the uncanny timing of both Lancet study, shortly before US elections. The friendly treatment accorded to the papers (including the expedited review) at a minimum suggests collusion between the authors and the editors, with the intent of influencing the outcome of the elections.

]]> By: Someguy http://crookedtimber.org/2008/01/10/post-invasion-deaths-in-iraq/comment-page-5/#comment-224577 Someguy Tue, 15 Jan 2008 05:55:23 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2008/01/10/post-invasion-deaths-in-iraq/#comment-224577 Hey, Zizka! Did you ever find out if Dubya molested corpses in college? Hey, Zizka! Did you ever find out if Dubya molested corpses in college?

]]> By: John Emerson http://crookedtimber.org/2008/01/10/post-invasion-deaths-in-iraq/comment-page-5/#comment-224558 John Emerson Tue, 15 Jan 2008 00:40:02 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2008/01/10/post-invasion-deaths-in-iraq/#comment-224558 See, we're lost in the weeds now. That is what rational people call rational discussion. But I'm not a rational person. I'm a liberal fascist! And I say, "Fuck this shit!" And do I get invited to speak on NPR? No! Does Jonah Goldberg? Yes! Because he's a rational person, and rational people speak rationally on NPR. See, we’re lost in the weeds now. That is what rational people call rational discussion.

But I’m not a rational person. I’m a liberal fascist! And I say, “Fuck this shit!”

And do I get invited to speak on NPR? No!

Does Jonah Goldberg? Yes!

Because he’s a rational person, and rational people speak rationally on NPR.

]]> By: SG http://crookedtimber.org/2008/01/10/post-invasion-deaths-in-iraq/comment-page-5/#comment-224556 SG Tue, 15 Jan 2008 00:26:18 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2008/01/10/post-invasion-deaths-in-iraq/#comment-224556 Brett, I know what the phrase "act of God" actually means. I'm merely pointing out that functionally (from the point of view of the dead person) the complete lack of control over the event means they can be seen as essentially equivalent. So when lots of people set out to try and kill you, it seems like an act of God even though clearly it is not. Sure it's twisting the definition, but so what? You're playing the editor because you want to pretend Abb1 is just another lefty who refuses to blame the invidivual. David, the rebuttals of your opinions are coming so thick and fast you are losing track of them. You do know that "makes a convincing argument for A" and "proves A is true" are different, don't you? You are aware that saying "some people think my nose was tweaked" and "my nose was tweaked" are different statements, don't you? Brett, I know what the phrase “act of God” actually means. I’m merely pointing out that functionally (from the point of view of the dead person) the complete lack of control over the event means they can be seen as essentially equivalent. So when lots of people set out to try and kill you, it seems like an act of God even though clearly it is not. Sure it’s twisting the definition, but so what? You’re playing the editor because you want to pretend Abb1 is just another lefty who refuses to blame the invidivual.

David, the rebuttals of your opinions are coming so thick and fast you are losing track of them. You do know that “makes a convincing argument for A” and “proves A is true” are different, don’t you? You are aware that saying “some people think my nose was tweaked” and “my nose was tweaked” are different statements, don’t you?

]]> By: Walt http://crookedtimber.org/2008/01/10/post-invasion-deaths-in-iraq/comment-page-5/#comment-224542 Walt Mon, 14 Jan 2008 16:39:01 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2008/01/10/post-invasion-deaths-in-iraq/#comment-224542 David, did you _read_ Goldin's post, or just the one sentence containing the words "convincing" and "tweaked"? In the rest of the post, she politely points out that any identified statistical anomoly is probably the result of data mining: if you look over any data set long enough you will find an anamoly. Any statistical inference that you do that does not correct for the fact that you looked at the data first to find an anomaly to test for is invalid, and unless you adjust your test statistics. Did you mention _any_ of that in your comment? What's that? No you didn't? Hmmm, I think that's what colloquially known as "misrepresenting". David: There could be something wrong with the Lancet article; I'm prepared to hear a case to that effect. Maybe some day someone will make a case that Roberts et al are partisan and dishonest. But there is one participant in these debates who has already demonstrated themselves to be partisan and dishonest. That person is you, David. David, did you read Goldin’s post, or just the one sentence containing the words “convincing” and “tweaked”? In the rest of the post, she politely points out that any identified statistical anomoly is probably the result of data mining: if you look over any data set long enough you will find an anamoly. Any statistical inference that you do that does not correct for the fact that you looked at the data first to find an anomaly to test for is invalid, and unless you adjust your test statistics. Did you mention any of that in your comment? What’s that? No you didn’t? Hmmm, I think that’s what colloquially known as “misrepresenting”.

David: There could be something wrong with the Lancet article; I’m prepared to hear a case to that effect. Maybe some day someone will make a case that Roberts et al are partisan and dishonest. But there is one participant in these debates who has already demonstrated themselves to be partisan and dishonest. That person is you, David.

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