Comments on: What Value are Endorsements? http://crookedtimber.org/2008/02/22/what-value-are-endorsements/ Out of the crooked timber of humanity, no straight thing was ever made Sun, 22 Nov 2009 10:39:04 -0800 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.6 hourly 1 By: Hogan http://crookedtimber.org/2008/02/22/what-value-are-endorsements/comment-page-1/#comment-229624 Hogan Mon, 25 Feb 2008 14:41:32 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2008/02/22/what-value-are-endorsements/#comment-229624 I'd say there is no key figure in Philadelphia; the Democratic party here is a network of neighborhood machines and union GOTV operations who don't much like each other, and Brady is more a broker of short-term deals and truces than a leader. (Witness his 15% vote in the mayoral primary last year.) There may end up being a consensus choice, but it will be the result of independent decisions by the warlords, not of people falling in line behind Nutter or Brady. I’d say there is no key figure in Philadelphia; the Democratic party here is a network of neighborhood machines and union GOTV operations who don’t much like each other, and Brady is more a broker of short-term deals and truces than a leader. (Witness his 15% vote in the mayoral primary last year.) There may end up being a consensus choice, but it will be the result of independent decisions by the warlords, not of people falling in line behind Nutter or Brady.

]]> By: sunflower7 http://crookedtimber.org/2008/02/22/what-value-are-endorsements/comment-page-1/#comment-229546 sunflower7 Sat, 23 Feb 2008 23:52:44 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2008/02/22/what-value-are-endorsements/#comment-229546 Endorsements don't mean much in this society. People don't question things. They just follow. It's not as if the people are scrutiny these endorsements and making and informed decision. Endorsements don’t mean much in this society. People don’t question things. They just follow. It’s not as if the people are scrutiny these endorsements and making and informed decision.

]]> By: Answer Guy http://crookedtimber.org/2008/02/22/what-value-are-endorsements/comment-page-1/#comment-229539 Answer Guy Sat, 23 Feb 2008 20:09:55 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2008/02/22/what-value-are-endorsements/#comment-229539 Yeah, far as I can tell, Obama did pretty well in working-class white areas, such as they exist, in Maryland. Which suggests that something changed between Super Duper Tuesday and Potomac Tuesday, or that Obama just had lots more boots on the ground in Baltimore. Yeah, far as I can tell, Obama did pretty well in working-class white areas, such as they exist, in Maryland. Which suggests that something changed between Super Duper Tuesday and Potomac Tuesday, or that Obama just had lots more boots on the ground in Baltimore.

]]> By: John http://crookedtimber.org/2008/02/22/what-value-are-endorsements/comment-page-1/#comment-229537 John Sat, 23 Feb 2008 19:22:17 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2008/02/22/what-value-are-endorsements/#comment-229537 Wow, Answer Guy, interesting stuff. The basic upshot, then, is that Obama did pretty well in the white working class areas? Also - Jesus Christ, Maryland congressional districts sure have been gerrymandered, huh? Wow, Answer Guy, interesting stuff. The basic upshot, then, is that Obama did pretty well in the white working class areas?

Also – Jesus Christ, Maryland congressional districts sure have been gerrymandered, huh?

]]> By: Answer Guy http://crookedtimber.org/2008/02/22/what-value-are-endorsements/comment-page-1/#comment-229528 Answer Guy Sat, 23 Feb 2008 17:17:13 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2008/02/22/what-value-are-endorsements/#comment-229528 So I went at looked at Clinton vs. Obama in Maryland, specifically Baltimore County and Anne Arundel County, the two counties that contain the most white working-class Democratic voters in the state. They don't believe in incorporated towns much in Maryland, so the area analysis would suck - except that Maryland thankfully breaks down by Congressional district within counties. In other words...precision gerrymandered Congressional districts to the rescue! Baltimore County has pieces of 5 of the state's 8 U.S. House districts. (The other 3 are entirely in the DC orbit.) The 1st and 6th are the designated GOP zones. With regards to Balt Co, the area in the 6th is rural while the 1st is mostly heavily Republican outer suburbia. Neither have many of the voters I'm focusing on. Collectively, Clinton beat Obama narrowly in this territory, a pattern repeated intereestingly enough throughout "red" counties statewide. The 7th is a black majority district based in the city, and the portions of Balt Co in the 7th (West Side - Woodlawn, Lochearn) are majority black as well. Obama won there by more than 3:1. The 2nd and 3rd are the real points of focus. The 2nd contains most of the East Side of the county (Dundalk, Essex, Rosedale, White Marsh) and then has an arm that includes parts of Towson that extends out to cover some territory in the northwest. Obama beat Clinton here 29.2K-23.5K, a pretty substantial win not far from his performance statewide. The east side isn't all white of course, but white blue-collar is the dominant ethic in this district nonetheless. The Balt Co portion of the 3rd district consists of most of the North Side of the county (from Towson over to Owings Mills and up to Reistersown) just above the city, with an arm that includes Parkville and Overlea (usually considered East Side) and another part, joined by Baltimore City part of the 3rd, down on the South Side (Arbutus/Halethorpe.) Obama didn't do quite as well here (fewer blacks than the 2nd, and I get the feeling Hillary did very well among the big Jewish community on the NW Side) but still carried the territory overall, 16.3K-15.4K. The Anne Arundel County numbers betray a similar pattern, somewhat reversed. Most of the AA portion that's in the 2nd (Brooklyn, Ferndale, pt of Glen Burnie) is quinessentially Reagan Democrat, and Obama won it 7331-5689. Obama did even better in the AA section of the 3rd (18.3K-13.8K), though that portion includes Annapolis, which is pretty diverse, and has an arm to the west that takes in a fair number of voters who are far more likely to be DC focused. There was a dead heat in the AA parts of the 1st (an area specifically designed to include as many Republicans as possible)and the 5th (another Republican area, except the 5th is dominated by the Democrats of Prince George's and Charles Counties, so it's blue overall.) So I went at looked at Clinton vs. Obama in Maryland, specifically Baltimore County and Anne Arundel County, the two counties that contain the most white working-class Democratic voters in the state. They don’t believe in incorporated towns much in Maryland, so the area analysis would suck – except that Maryland thankfully breaks down by Congressional district within counties. In other words…precision gerrymandered Congressional districts to the rescue!

Baltimore County has pieces of 5 of the state’s 8 U.S. House districts. (The other 3 are entirely in the DC orbit.)
The 1st and 6th are the designated GOP zones. With regards to Balt Co, the area in the 6th is rural while the 1st is mostly heavily Republican outer suburbia. Neither have many of the voters I’m focusing on. Collectively, Clinton beat Obama narrowly in this territory, a pattern repeated intereestingly enough throughout “red” counties statewide.
The 7th is a black majority district based in the city, and the portions of Balt Co in the 7th (West Side – Woodlawn, Lochearn) are majority black as well. Obama won there by more than 3:1.
The 2nd and 3rd are the real points of focus.
The 2nd contains most of the East Side of the county (Dundalk, Essex, Rosedale, White Marsh) and then has an arm that includes parts of Towson that extends out to cover some territory in the northwest. Obama beat Clinton here 29.2K-23.5K, a pretty substantial win not far from his performance statewide. The east side isn’t all white of course, but white blue-collar is the dominant ethic in this district nonetheless. The Balt Co portion of the 3rd district consists of most of the North Side of the county (from Towson over to Owings Mills and up to Reistersown) just above the city, with an arm that includes Parkville and Overlea (usually considered East Side) and another part, joined by Baltimore City part of the 3rd, down on the South Side (Arbutus/Halethorpe.) Obama didn’t do quite as well here (fewer blacks than the 2nd, and I get the feeling Hillary did very well among the big Jewish community on the NW Side) but still carried the territory overall, 16.3K-15.4K.

The Anne Arundel County numbers betray a similar pattern, somewhat reversed. Most of the AA portion that’s in the 2nd (Brooklyn, Ferndale, pt of Glen Burnie) is quinessentially Reagan Democrat, and Obama won it 7331-5689. Obama did even better in the AA section of the 3rd (18.3K-13.8K), though that portion includes Annapolis, which is pretty diverse, and has an arm to the west that takes in a fair number of voters who are far more likely to be DC focused. There was a dead heat in the AA parts of the 1st (an area specifically designed to include as many Republicans as possible)and the 5th (another Republican area, except the 5th is dominated by the Democrats of Prince George’s and Charles Counties, so it’s blue overall.)

]]> By: Answer Guy http://crookedtimber.org/2008/02/22/what-value-are-endorsements/comment-page-1/#comment-229525 Answer Guy Sat, 23 Feb 2008 16:35:17 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2008/02/22/what-value-are-endorsements/#comment-229525 Re #19.... Voters in general, and Democratic primary voters in particular, in many smaller towns in Western Mass tend to be pretty liberal. Voting patterns there resemble Vermont more than they do the rest of Mass. The "it's always 1975" factor (an often forgotten but thankfully diminishing factor in election throughout the NE Corridor, as there are actually a lot of places like this between Boston and DC) referred to in #13 doesn't exist out there in the same way. The reason some of the bigger towns west of I-495 (Boston's outer beltway) went for Hillary were the presence of more working-class voters and a bigger Puerto Rican population. For some reason, Clinton just cleaned Obama's clock in that community; she won every town with a big PR population - Holyoke, Lawrence, and Worcester to name three. None of this bodes especially well for Obama in Rhode Island, which is a lot like Massachusetts except without any "Baja Vermont." Or for "beer track" Democratic voters in Ohio and Pennsylvania. Except that Maryland was a very different story, which I'll explain in another post since this is getting longwinded. Re #19…. Voters in general, and Democratic primary voters in particular, in many smaller towns in Western Mass tend to be pretty liberal. Voting patterns there resemble Vermont more than they do the rest of Mass. The “it’s always 1975” factor (an often forgotten but thankfully diminishing factor in election throughout the NE Corridor, as there are actually a lot of places like this between Boston and DC) referred to in #13 doesn’t exist out there in the same way.

The reason some of the bigger towns west of I-495 (Boston’s outer beltway) went for Hillary were the presence of more working-class voters and a bigger Puerto Rican population. For some reason, Clinton just cleaned Obama’s clock in that community; she won every town with a big PR population – Holyoke, Lawrence, and Worcester to name three.

None of this bodes especially well for Obama in Rhode Island, which is a lot like Massachusetts except without any “Baja Vermont.” Or for “beer track” Democratic voters in Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Except that Maryland was a very different story, which I’ll explain in another post since this is getting longwinded.

]]> By: News from Rob » Midday Open Thread http://crookedtimber.org/2008/02/22/what-value-are-endorsements/comment-page-1/#comment-229500 News from Rob » Midday Open Thread Sat, 23 Feb 2008 01:24:32 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2008/02/22/what-value-are-endorsements/#comment-229500 [...] at Crooked Timber looks at the value (seemingly large) of mayoral endorsements in the primaries, and speculates about [...] [...] at Crooked Timber looks at the value (seemingly large) of mayoral endorsements in the primaries, and speculates about [...]

]]> By: Lee Sigelman http://crookedtimber.org/2008/02/22/what-value-are-endorsements/comment-page-1/#comment-229499 Lee Sigelman Sat, 23 Feb 2008 01:20:37 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2008/02/22/what-value-are-endorsements/#comment-229499 Sorry. That link showed up nicely in preview and I can't seem to crack the code here. It's http://www.themonkeycage.org/2007/11/why_endorsements_matter_in_pre.html Sorry. That link showed up nicely in preview and I can’t seem to crack the code here. It’s
http://www.themonkeycage.org/2007/11/why_endorsements_matter_in_pre.html

]]> By: Lee Sigelman http://crookedtimber.org/2008/02/22/what-value-are-endorsements/comment-page-1/#comment-229498 Lee Sigelman Sat, 23 Feb 2008 01:18:08 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2008/02/22/what-value-are-endorsements/#comment-229498 One of my co-bloggers at "The Monkey Cage," John Sides, posted on this topic back in November, pointing to a new analysis that suggests that endorsements do matter. Click <a href=here for John's post. One of my co-bloggers at “The Monkey Cage,” John Sides, posted on this topic back in November, pointing to a new analysis that suggests that endorsements do matter. Click

]]> By: nick s http://crookedtimber.org/2008/02/22/what-value-are-endorsements/comment-page-1/#comment-229497 nick s Sat, 23 Feb 2008 01:16:12 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2008/02/22/what-value-are-endorsements/#comment-229497 There's been an argument that long-standing city machines (of which Chicago, of course, is the classic example) can deliver votes, but in machine-politics areas like north NJ there was <a href="http://www.nj.com/news/ledger/index.ssf?/base/news-13/120227977482560.xml&coll=1" rel="nofollow">reporting</a> that suggested otherwise. Those machines, however, do have racial bases, and the anecdotal experience recorded by Josh Marshall's correspondents -- that many nth-gen 'white ethnic' voters simply won't vote for a black man -- doesn't necessarily need a machine. (On the MA endorsements: Obama came a lot closer than the polls were suggesting before those endorsements came in. RI's going to be different still, given the size of the state in relation to Providence.) There’s been an argument that long-standing city machines (of which Chicago, of course, is the classic example) can deliver votes, but in machine-politics areas like north NJ there was reporting that suggested otherwise.

Those machines, however, do have racial bases, and the anecdotal experience recorded by Josh Marshall’s correspondents—that many nth-gen ‘white ethnic’ voters simply won’t vote for a black man—doesn’t necessarily need a machine.

(On the MA endorsements: Obama came a lot closer than the polls were suggesting before those endorsements came in. RI’s going to be different still, given the size of the state in relation to Providence.)

]]> By: ikl http://crookedtimber.org/2008/02/22/what-value-are-endorsements/comment-page-1/#comment-229493 ikl Fri, 22 Feb 2008 23:26:34 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2008/02/22/what-value-are-endorsements/#comment-229493 Clinton didn't do especially well in Western Mass, except for greater Springfield (where she had local backing from Congressman Neal). But she lost Franklin and Hampshire counties and Berkshire county was pretty close. That was not where she won MA, anyway. Clinton didn’t do especially well in Western Mass, except for greater Springfield (where she had local backing from Congressman Neal). But she lost Franklin and Hampshire counties and Berkshire county was pretty close. That was not where she won MA, anyway.

]]> By: Brian http://crookedtimber.org/2008/02/22/what-value-are-endorsements/comment-page-1/#comment-229485 Brian Fri, 22 Feb 2008 23:02:35 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2008/02/22/what-value-are-endorsements/#comment-229485 Davis's explanation (@13) is probably right. I may have been reaching a little to explain the voting patterns around Boston when it was all somewhat simpler than I made it out to be. And that's interesting to know about Philly, John. I wonder if it ends up being like North Jersey (with the sides reversed). One candidate had some high profile leaders, the other had the majority of the people who ran the political machines. And the second candidate won. If Brady supports Obama and brings a lot of people with him, Clinton is in trouble. A big win for Obama in Philly and it's hard to see him losing the state by enough to make any serious difference to the delegate count. And then, it's all over. Davis’s explanation (@13) is probably right. I may have been reaching a little to explain the voting patterns around Boston when it was all somewhat simpler than I made it out to be.

And that’s interesting to know about Philly, John. I wonder if it ends up being like North Jersey (with the sides reversed). One candidate had some high profile leaders, the other had the majority of the people who ran the political machines. And the second candidate won. If Brady supports Obama and brings a lot of people with him, Clinton is in trouble. A big win for Obama in Philly and it’s hard to see him losing the state by enough to make any serious difference to the delegate count. And then, it’s all over.

]]> By: Scott Hughes http://crookedtimber.org/2008/02/22/what-value-are-endorsements/comment-page-1/#comment-229480 Scott Hughes Fri, 22 Feb 2008 22:32:05 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2008/02/22/what-value-are-endorsements/#comment-229480 This is interesting. Maybe we don't notice some of the value that endorsements provide. Without them, maybe the politicians would have done even worse in those states. This is interesting. Maybe we don’t notice some of the value that endorsements provide. Without them, maybe the politicians would have done even worse in those states.

]]> By: thompsaj http://crookedtimber.org/2008/02/22/what-value-are-endorsements/comment-page-1/#comment-229478 thompsaj Fri, 22 Feb 2008 22:21:05 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2008/02/22/what-value-are-endorsements/#comment-229478 @1, yeah the peninsulares love Riley, but ask anyone from James Island! @1, yeah the peninsulares love Riley, but ask anyone from James Island!

]]> By: John http://crookedtimber.org/2008/02/22/what-value-are-endorsements/comment-page-1/#comment-229467 John Fri, 22 Feb 2008 21:30:17 +0000 http://crookedtimber.org/2008/02/22/what-value-are-endorsements/#comment-229467 In terms of Philly, I don't think Nutter's endorsement will mean that much. Nutter got elected more or less in opposition to the Democratic machine, and his relationship to it is tenuous and questionable. The key local political figure in Philadelphia is Congressman Bob Brady, chairman of the city Democratic Party. Brady has not yet endorsed. He's the one to look out for. Given that he's a white guy in Philly who hasn't yet endorsed Clinton, I'm going to guess that she'll need substantial victories in Ohio and Texas to get him to back her. In terms of Philly, I don’t think Nutter’s endorsement will mean that much. Nutter got elected more or less in opposition to the Democratic machine, and his relationship to it is tenuous and questionable.

The key local political figure in Philadelphia is Congressman Bob Brady, chairman of the city Democratic Party. Brady has not yet endorsed. He’s the one to look out for. Given that he’s a white guy in Philly who hasn’t yet endorsed Clinton, I’m going to guess that she’ll need substantial victories in Ohio and Texas to get him to back her.

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