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	<title>Comments on: Data and anecdotes</title>
	<atom:link href="http://crookedtimber.org/2008/05/01/data-and-anecdotes/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2008/05/01/data-and-anecdotes/</link>
	<description>Out of the crooked timber of humanity, no straight thing was ever made</description>
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		<title>By: michael e sullivan</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2008/05/01/data-and-anecdotes/comment-page-1/#comment-238722</link>
		<dc:creator>michael e sullivan</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 06 May 2008 17:22:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2008/05/01/data-and-anecdotes/#comment-238722</guid>
		<description>modern technology has made the quality of our hamburger so good, that it might as well be steak!  

It&#039;s a simple matter of quality substitution.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>modern technology has made the quality of our hamburger so good, that it might as well be steak!</p>

	<p>It&#8217;s a simple matter of quality substitution.</p>
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		<title>By: Hal</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2008/05/01/data-and-anecdotes/comment-page-1/#comment-238510</link>
		<dc:creator>Hal</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 03 May 2008 21:20:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2008/05/01/data-and-anecdotes/#comment-238510</guid>
		<description>&quot;Core&quot; inflation was put into effect to reduce the amount of increases in Social Security payments and Cost of Living clauses in contacts.

I would receive about 70 to 100% more in SS if food and energy was counted.  

Plain and simple anyone who believes any of the government figures such as CPI or unemployment is dreaming.

Most if not all are worked over to reduce the real figures.

Try Google on CPI, unemployment or others with the word &quot;problems&quot; and you will hit a gold mine. 

When they do figure food just one of the rules is if they are costing out steak and it jumps in price instead of reporting that they change to hamburg because all Americans change to hamburg.....right????????

Just yesterday one of the business channels was reporting that the Fed by reducing the interest rate would reduce mortage and auto rates.

Today they reported that mortage rates has risen.

Figures don&#039;t lie but liars figure...

hal</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>&#8220;Core&#8221; inflation was put into effect to reduce the amount of increases in Social Security payments and Cost of Living clauses in contacts.</p>

	<p>I would receive about 70 to 100% more in SS if food and energy was counted.</p>

	<p>Plain and simple anyone who believes any of the government figures such as <span class="caps">CPI</span> or unemployment is dreaming.</p>

	<p>Most if not all are worked over to reduce the real figures.</p>

	<p>Try Google on <span class="caps">CPI</span>, unemployment or others with the word &#8220;problems&#8221; and you will hit a gold mine.</p>

	<p>When they do figure food just one of the rules is if they are costing out steak and it jumps in price instead of reporting that they change to hamburg because all Americans change to hamburg&#8230;..right????????</p>

	<p>Just yesterday one of the business channels was reporting that the Fed by reducing the interest rate would reduce mortage and auto rates.</p>

	<p>Today they reported that mortage rates has risen.</p>

	<p>Figures don&#8217;t lie but liars figure&#8230;</p>

	<p>hal</p>
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		<title>By: paul</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2008/05/01/data-and-anecdotes/comment-page-1/#comment-238374</link>
		<dc:creator>paul</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 02 May 2008 14:25:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2008/05/01/data-and-anecdotes/#comment-238374</guid>
		<description>Whether the reporters themselves are smart or dumb is irrelevant. That&#039;s like judging the intelligence of an actor by the snappiness of the lines they utter.

There are particular narratives that it&#039;s the job of the mainstream press to promulgate, and actual statistics are not part of those narratives because they&#039;re not as amenable to manipulation as other kinds of reported fact. (They&#039;re also not as clearly intermediated -- anyone can look up the numbers, but only A Reporter From The Times can find just the right people in europe or middle america to interview.)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Whether the reporters themselves are smart or dumb is irrelevant. That&#8217;s like judging the intelligence of an actor by the snappiness of the lines they utter.</p>

	<p>There are particular narratives that it&#8217;s the job of the mainstream press to promulgate, and actual statistics are not part of those narratives because they&#8217;re not as amenable to manipulation as other kinds of reported fact. (They&#8217;re also not as clearly intermediated&#8212;anyone can look up the numbers, but only A Reporter From The Times can find just the right people in europe or middle america to interview.)</p>
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		<title>By: abb1</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2008/05/01/data-and-anecdotes/comment-page-1/#comment-238353</link>
		<dc:creator>abb1</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 02 May 2008 12:22:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2008/05/01/data-and-anecdotes/#comment-238353</guid>
		<description>&lt;a href=&quot;http://econospeak.blogspot.com/2008/05/back-to-school-on-money-illusion.html&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;EconoSpeak&lt;/a&gt;...</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p><a href="http://econospeak.blogspot.com/2008/05/back-to-school-on-money-illusion.html" rel="nofollow">EconoSpeak</a>&#8230;</p>
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		<title>By: Barry</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2008/05/01/data-and-anecdotes/comment-page-1/#comment-238352</link>
		<dc:creator>Barry</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 02 May 2008 12:19:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2008/05/01/data-and-anecdotes/#comment-238352</guid>
		<description>I&#039;d like to point out that the sheer difficulty in finding and comparing statistics is pretty much a first-time problem; once you know where to go, and what&#039;s comparable, the effort is much less.  Which is to say that *professional journalists* have no excuse whatsoever in avoiding such statistics, because the initial effort would be a career-enhancing investment.  Assuming, of course, that communicating the truth is what a professional journalist does.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>I&#8217;d like to point out that the sheer difficulty in finding and comparing statistics is pretty much a first-time problem; once you know where to go, and what&#8217;s comparable, the effort is much less.  Which is to say that <strong>professional journalists</strong> have no excuse whatsoever in avoiding such statistics, because the initial effort would be a career-enhancing investment.  Assuming, of course, that communicating the truth is what a professional journalist does.</p>
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		<title>By: Peter Whiteford</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2008/05/01/data-and-anecdotes/comment-page-1/#comment-238345</link>
		<dc:creator>Peter Whiteford</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 02 May 2008 10:40:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2008/05/01/data-and-anecdotes/#comment-238345</guid>
		<description>I think that one of the main explanations why some European countries have a lively debate about “purchasing power” which seems to be lacking in some of the “Anglo-Saxon” countries is that in fact the purchasing power of net wages varies widely.  

Have a look at Table 1.3, in particular, in http://www.taxjustice.net/cms/upload/pdf/Taxing_Wages_2003.pdf.  This unfortunately is a bit out of date and a more up-to date version can be found on the OECD website at http://www.oecd.org/document/57/0,3343,en_2649_37427_40255097_1_1_1_37427,00.html but not one with the same table.  (Those with OECD access might be able to find a more up-to-date version.)

It can be seen that the gross cost of employing someone at the average production workers wage is actually very similar in France, Italy, the US and the UK – around USD 34,000 to 36,000 (PPP adjusted), but while around 29-31% of that goes for taxes in the US and the UK, in France it is 48%, with employer social security contributions being the largest component (and 45% in Italy).  Because employer social security contributions are paid directly from business to government they tend to be invisible to workers, or not very transparent at least.

So disposable incomes for similar workers are about one-third higher in the UK than in France in purchasing power even though the cost of employing production workers is about the same in both countries.  Now of course for your higher taxes in France you are getting a very good  health care system, extremely generous unemployment benefits for the middle class (the most generous in the OECD), much higher public retirement pensions, free schools and universities, great public transport etc etc.  However, you do have less money left over for discretionary spending, so when the price of life’s little luxuries or necessities goes up, you tend to notice it more immediately.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>I think that one of the main explanations why some European countries have a lively debate about &#8220;purchasing power&#8221; which seems to be lacking in some of the &#8220;Anglo-Saxon&#8221; countries is that in fact the purchasing power of net wages varies widely.</p>

	<p>Have a look at Table 1.3, in particular, in <a href="http://www.taxjustice.net/cms/upload/pdf/Taxing_Wages_2003.pdf" rel="nofollow">http://www.taxjustice.net/cms/upload/pdf/Taxing_Wages_2003.pdf</a>.  This unfortunately is a bit out of date and a more up-to date version can be found on the <span class="caps">OECD</span> website at <a href="http://www.oecd.org/document/57/0,3343,en_2649_37427_40255097_1_1_1_37427,00.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.oecd.org/document/57/0,3343,en_2649_37427_40255097_1_1_1_37427,00.html</a> but not one with the same table.  (Those with <span class="caps">OECD</span> access might be able to find a more up-to-date version.)</p>

	<p>It can be seen that the gross cost of employing someone at the average production workers wage is actually very similar in France, Italy, the US and the <span class="caps">UK </span>&#8211; around <span class="caps">USD 34</span>,000 to 36,000 (PPP adjusted), but while around 29-31% of that goes for taxes in the US and the UK, in France it is 48%, with employer social security contributions being the largest component (and 45% in Italy).  Because employer social security contributions are paid directly from business to government they tend to be invisible to workers, or not very transparent at least.</p>

	<p>So disposable incomes for similar workers are about one-third higher in the UK than in France in purchasing power even though the cost of employing production workers is about the same in both countries.  Now of course for your higher taxes in France you are getting a very good  health care system, extremely generous unemployment benefits for the middle class (the most generous in the <span class="caps">OECD</span>), much higher public retirement pensions, free schools and universities, great public transport etc etc.  However, you do have less money left over for discretionary spending, so when the price of life&#8217;s little luxuries or necessities goes up, you tend to notice it more immediately.</p>
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		<title>By: abb1</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2008/05/01/data-and-anecdotes/comment-page-1/#comment-238331</link>
		<dc:creator>abb1</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 02 May 2008 07:47:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2008/05/01/data-and-anecdotes/#comment-238331</guid>
		<description>Pertty much every town around here designates itself as &quot;ville de fleur&quot;. Flowers are very important, not a joking matter.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Pertty much every town around here designates itself as &#8220;ville de fleur&#8221;. Flowers are very important, not a joking matter.</p>
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		<title>By: Brendan</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2008/05/01/data-and-anecdotes/comment-page-1/#comment-238317</link>
		<dc:creator>Brendan</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 02 May 2008 03:37:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2008/05/01/data-and-anecdotes/#comment-238317</guid>
		<description>@18:

Witt:  I think you&#039;re right about all this, but I&#039;d add to your #3 the fact that many reporters are innumerate going in, and never do anything to address this.  Most of them come from a liberal arts or poli sci educational background, and not a week goes by when I don&#039;t hear one of them say, proudly, &quot;I can&#039;t even balance my checkbook!&quot;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>@18:</p>

	<p>Witt:  I think you&#8217;re right about all this, but I&#8217;d add to your #3 the fact that many reporters are innumerate going in, and never do anything to address this.  Most of them come from a liberal arts or poli sci educational background, and not a week goes by when I don&#8217;t hear one of them say, proudly, &#8220;I can&#8217;t even balance my checkbook!&#8221; </p>
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		<title>By: SG</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2008/05/01/data-and-anecdotes/comment-page-1/#comment-238312</link>
		<dc:creator>SG</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 02 May 2008 02:51:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2008/05/01/data-and-anecdotes/#comment-238312</guid>
		<description>My explanation for these stats-free feelgood stories is that journalists are stupid. They were the dumbest people you knew at University, and they&#039;re generally just dumb. Sure the odd one rises above the pack to almost the level of intelligence of the rest of the population, but most of them are stupid. 

I read in the Daily Yomiuri on Tuesday (?) an imported article about life for ex-pats in Europe and how bad it has become since the dollar started diving against the Euro. Life for those expats is so bad, the article told me, that some expats have taken to buying &lt;i&gt;potted&lt;/i&gt; flowers so as to reduce the weekly expense of buying &lt;i&gt;cut&lt;/i&gt; flowers. Perhaps you can sympathise, Abb1?

Middle class, university educated and profoundly stupid. Is there any worse combination of traits for a profession?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>My explanation for these stats-free feelgood stories is that journalists are stupid. They were the dumbest people you knew at University, and they&#8217;re generally just dumb. Sure the odd one rises above the pack to almost the level of intelligence of the rest of the population, but most of them are stupid.</p>

	<p>I read in the Daily Yomiuri on Tuesday (?) an imported article about life for ex-pats in Europe and how bad it has become since the dollar started diving against the Euro. Life for those expats is so bad, the article told me, that some expats have taken to buying <i>potted</i> flowers so as to reduce the weekly expense of buying <i>cut</i> flowers. Perhaps you can sympathise, Abb1?</p>

	<p>Middle class, university educated and profoundly stupid. Is there any worse combination of traits for a profession?</p>
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		<title>By: John P</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2008/05/01/data-and-anecdotes/comment-page-1/#comment-238309</link>
		<dc:creator>John P</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 02 May 2008 00:42:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2008/05/01/data-and-anecdotes/#comment-238309</guid>
		<description>How disappointing. I thought you were going to discuss &lt;a href=&quot;http://seekingalpha.com/article/72535-tinkering-with-inflation-calculations-the-pollyanna-creep-phenomenon&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;polyanna creep&lt;/a&gt;, a concept I was introduced to in an article by Kevin Phillips in the current (May 2008) issue of &lt;i&gt;Harper&#039;s&lt;/i&gt;.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>How disappointing. I thought you were going to discuss <a href="http://seekingalpha.com/article/72535-tinkering-with-inflation-calculations-the-pollyanna-creep-phenomenon" rel="nofollow">polyanna creep</a>, a concept I was introduced to in an article by Kevin Phillips in the current (May 2008) issue of <i>Harper&#8217;s</i>.</p>
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		<title>By: aaron</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2008/05/01/data-and-anecdotes/comment-page-1/#comment-238297</link>
		<dc:creator>aaron</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 01 May 2008 22:20:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2008/05/01/data-and-anecdotes/#comment-238297</guid>
		<description>I used to look at the BLSs consumption data.  From that, it wasn&#039;t until ~ &#039;05 that consumption increases outstipped income increases for the poor.  For the first half of the decade, I think it could reasonably be said that income inequallity was decreasing.  But I think that the rising prices that followed quickly washed away any gain.

I think this was mostly caused by &lt;a href=&quot;http://cumulativemodel.blogspot.com/2006/05/whats-big-deal-about-gas-prices.html&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;high gas and energy prices&lt;/a&gt; (before inflation was focused on luxery goods, energy drove up the cost of the basics).</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>I used to look at the BLSs consumption data.  From that, it wasn&#8217;t until ~ &#8216;05 that consumption increases outstipped income increases for the poor.  For the first half of the decade, I think it could reasonably be said that income inequallity was decreasing.  But I think that the rising prices that followed quickly washed away any gain.</p>

	<p>I think this was mostly caused by <a href="http://cumulativemodel.blogspot.com/2006/05/whats-big-deal-about-gas-prices.html" rel="nofollow">high gas and energy prices</a> (before inflation was focused on luxery goods, energy drove up the cost of the basics).</p>
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		<title>By: abb1</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2008/05/01/data-and-anecdotes/comment-page-1/#comment-238287</link>
		<dc:creator>abb1</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 01 May 2008 20:40:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2008/05/01/data-and-anecdotes/#comment-238287</guid>
		<description>Oh, March, OK. I wonder, though, how it can drop by more than a point from June to September in the same year (2005). Was there a huge jump in inflation or something?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Oh, March, OK. I wonder, though, how it can drop by more than a point from June to September in the same year (2005). Was there a huge jump in inflation or something?</p>
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		<title>By: someguy</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2008/05/01/data-and-anecdotes/comment-page-1/#comment-238285</link>
		<dc:creator>someguy</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 01 May 2008 20:07:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2008/05/01/data-and-anecdotes/#comment-238285</guid>
		<description>abb1,

Page 3 Table 4 All Workers Civilian Workers.

Mar 2001 94.2
Mar 2008 99.2.

And I get no increase since Sep 2003.

And I totally missed John&#039;s update at the bottom of the post. (Kind of glad I did.)

It was only John&#039;s direction that allowed me to find the ECI data.

It would probably take me a long while to rummage around Eurostat and see what the situation was for the Eurozone in the same time period.

And then I would be left with the difficulty of comparing the two measures.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>abb1,</p>

	<p>Page 3 Table 4 All Workers Civilian Workers.</p>

	<p>Mar 2001 94.2<br />
Mar 2008 99.2.</p>

	<p>And I get no increase since Sep 2003.</p>

	<p>And I totally missed John&#8217;s update at the bottom of the post. (Kind of glad I did.)</p>

	<p>It was only John&#8217;s direction that allowed me to find the <span class="caps">ECI</span> data.</p>

	<p>It would probably take me a long while to rummage around Eurostat and see what the situation was for the Eurozone in the same time period.</p>

	<p>And then I would be left with the difficulty of comparing the two measures.</p>
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		<title>By: John Quiggin</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2008/05/01/data-and-anecdotes/comment-page-1/#comment-238283</link>
		<dc:creator>John Quiggin</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 01 May 2008 19:49:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2008/05/01/data-and-anecdotes/#comment-238283</guid>
		<description>I&#039;ve edited the post to correct on this point.

Someguy, I think your general point is right. It is hard to do this stuff, and its unsurprising that people find it easier to do voxpops. 

I also agree that the most relevant comparisons are with Western Europe. This has become a bit more difficult since the euro.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>I&#8217;ve edited the post to correct on this point.</p>

	<p>Someguy, I think your general point is right. It is hard to do this stuff, and its unsurprising that people find it easier to do voxpops.</p>

	<p>I also agree that the most relevant comparisons are with Western Europe. This has become a bit more difficult since the euro.</p>
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		<title>By: abb1</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2008/05/01/data-and-anecdotes/comment-page-1/#comment-238282</link>
		<dc:creator>abb1</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 01 May 2008 19:36:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/2008/05/01/data-and-anecdotes/#comment-238282</guid>
		<description>Someguy, I&#039;m looking at your ecconstnaics.pdf file; how do you get 4.86%? I see total employment costs (table 1) for December 
2001 97.0
2002 97.9
2003 99.8
2004 100.3
2005 100.0 - this is their baseline
2006 100.8
2007 100.0
That&#039;s 3% increase since 2001, no increase since 2003.  

Wages and salaries without the benefits (table 8) are slightly down since 2001.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Someguy, I&#8217;m looking at your ecconstnaics.pdf file; how do you get 4.86%? I see total employment costs (table 1) for December<br />
2001 97.0<br />
2002 97.9<br />
2003 99.8<br />
2004 100.3<br />
2005 100.0 &#8211; this is their baseline<br />
2006 100.8<br />
2007 100.0<br />
That&#8217;s 3% increase since 2001, no increase since 2003.</p>

	<p>Wages and salaries without the benefits (table 8) are slightly down since 2001.</p>
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