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	<title>Comments on: Discredited</title>
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	<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2008/10/20/discredited/</link>
	<description>Out of the crooked timber of humanity, no straight thing was ever made</description>
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		<title>By: Joshua Vincent</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2008/10/20/discredited/comment-page-1/#comment-256474</link>
		<dc:creator>Joshua Vincent</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 23 Oct 2008 11:47:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/?p=8174#comment-256474</guid>
		<description>Land Value Taxation is still the norm for most Australian states, as well as many US cities, New Zealand cities, Danish cites. Estonia has a national land value tax.  It is applied spottily that&#039;s for sure, but the advent of computer analysis makes implmentation clearer and easier, as well as making the positive outcomes for the citizenry that much clearer.  The self-assessment aspect is in place in, I believe, Estonia.  that would make the whole H. George program work much better, IMO.

Most of the above named places still have many other taxes that &quot;drag&quot; the impact of the land value tax, but they generally are economically healthier places than a similar neighbor that does not use the program.
Cheers, Josh</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Land Value Taxation is still the norm for most Australian states, as well as many US cities, New Zealand cities, Danish cites. Estonia has a national land value tax.  It is applied spottily that&#8217;s for sure, but the advent of computer analysis makes implmentation clearer and easier, as well as making the positive outcomes for the citizenry that much clearer.  The self-assessment aspect is in place in, I believe, Estonia.  that would make the whole H. George program work much better, <span class="caps">IMO</span>.</p>

	<p>Most of the above named places still have many other taxes that &#8220;drag&#8221; the impact of the land value tax, but they generally are economically healthier places than a similar neighbor that does not use the program.<br />
Cheers, Josh</p>
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		<title>By: derrida derider</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2008/10/20/discredited/comment-page-1/#comment-256373</link>
		<dc:creator>derrida derider</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 22 Oct 2008 02:19:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/?p=8174#comment-256373</guid>
		<description>J Thomas, that method of assessment was first suggested by Henry George - the 19th century Californian advocate of land taxation. 

I know it was actually used in one Australian state (South Australia) but was repealed after a few decades (I&#039;d guess after some especially well connected tax minimiser lost his property).  Given how influential George&#039;s writings were I&#039;d be surprised if it hasn&#039;t been tried somewhere else in the world.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>J Thomas, that method of assessment was first suggested by Henry George &#8211; the 19th century Californian advocate of land taxation.</p>

	<p>I know it was actually used in one Australian state (South Australia) but was repealed after a few decades (I&#8217;d guess after some especially well connected tax minimiser lost his property).  Given how influential George&#8217;s writings were I&#8217;d be surprised if it hasn&#8217;t been tried somewhere else in the world.</p>
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		<title>By: Suther</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2008/10/20/discredited/comment-page-1/#comment-256343</link>
		<dc:creator>Suther</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 21 Oct 2008 20:34:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/?p=8174#comment-256343</guid>
		<description>&quot;Even then, and despite Lang’s best attempts, Australia paid up.&quot;

Well, puts Australia in a tie with Iceland, which hasn&#039;t defaulted on any debt either ... and it has been continually inhabited 700+ more years than Australia.  Which country should be AAA?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>&#8220;Even then, and despite Lang&#8217;s best attempts, Australia paid up.&#8221;</p>

	<p>Well, puts Australia in a tie with Iceland, which hasn&#8217;t defaulted on any debt either &#8230; and it has been continually inhabited 700+ more years than Australia.  Which country should be <span class="caps">AAA</span>?</p>
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		<title>By: J Thomas</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2008/10/20/discredited/comment-page-1/#comment-256307</link>
		<dc:creator>J Thomas</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 21 Oct 2008 17:25:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/?p=8174#comment-256307</guid>
		<description>&lt;em&gt;If you assumed the last 60+ years meant something, any postal service type rating agency would have been hard pressed to say that the risk of a 10-20% decline in US real estate prices was anything but fantasy…&lt;/em&gt;

This is the central problem.

When you&#039;re in the middle of a three-year boom, or a ten-year boom, or a sixty-year boom, it&#039;s simply not credible that the boom could ever end. The very idea seems like a fantasy.

We see this in lots of context.

I don&#039;t see any way to fix it.

Here&#039;s a limited idea that I thought was interesting, from a Heinlein novel: Collect real estate taxes based on the value the owner places on his property. The value gets published and anybody who wants to buy the property at that price can do so.

Never mind the problems, I just liked the idea of that kind of valuation. You set a price you&#039;re willing to sell at, and that&#039;s what the property is worth to you. You pay taxes for the price you set so you don&#039;t overvalue it too much. But you don&#039;t want to undervalue it either. If it&#039;s worth more to somebody else then you get your price and they say what it&#039;s worth to them.

It seems so elegant at first thought. If only it would work.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p><em>If you assumed the last 60+ years meant something, any postal service type rating agency would have been hard pressed to say that the risk of a 10-20% decline in US real estate prices was anything but fantasy&#8230;</em></p>

	<p>This is the central problem.</p>

	<p>When you&#8217;re in the middle of a three-year boom, or a ten-year boom, or a sixty-year boom, it&#8217;s simply not credible that the boom could ever end. The very idea seems like a fantasy.</p>

	<p>We see this in lots of context.</p>

	<p>I don&#8217;t see any way to fix it.</p>

	<p>Here&#8217;s a limited idea that I thought was interesting, from a Heinlein novel: Collect real estate taxes based on the value the owner places on his property. The value gets published and anybody who wants to buy the property at that price can do so.</p>

	<p>Never mind the problems, I just liked the idea of that kind of valuation. You set a price you&#8217;re willing to sell at, and that&#8217;s what the property is worth to you. You pay taxes for the price you set so you don&#8217;t overvalue it too much. But you don&#8217;t want to undervalue it either. If it&#8217;s worth more to somebody else then you get your price and they say what it&#8217;s worth to them.</p>

	<p>It seems so elegant at first thought. If only it would work.</p>
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		<title>By: John Quiggin</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2008/10/20/discredited/comment-page-1/#comment-256235</link>
		<dc:creator>John Quiggin</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 21 Oct 2008 08:37:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/?p=8174#comment-256235</guid>
		<description>Suther, in the case of Australian governments, I don&#039;t need the qualifier &quot;since the Great Depression&quot;. Even then, and despite Lang&#039;s best attempts, Australia paid up.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Suther, in the case of Australian governments, I don&#8217;t need the qualifier &#8220;since the Great Depression&#8221;. Even then, and despite Lang&#8217;s best attempts, Australia paid up.</p>
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		<title>By: Suther</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2008/10/20/discredited/comment-page-1/#comment-256187</link>
		<dc:creator>Suther</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 20 Oct 2008 19:36:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/?p=8174#comment-256187</guid>
		<description>&quot;In the Seattle area, our big transit agency, Sound Transit, has had to struggle to get a AAA rating, after years of getting a AA or just an A rating, while WAMU, which has gone bankrupt on the same sort of dodgy mortgage securities, got AAA the entire time.&quot;

Not to let facts get in the way of a good story, but Wamu has never been AAA, ever. 

I think the real challenge is separating the two issues of the mortgage bubble - fraud and collusion on the part of investment banks and rating agencies - that is bad and folks should go to jail and companies should be sued - and the separate issue of whether a gov&#039;t agency would have done any better.  

Just like you said - &quot;In Australia, despite the fact that no state or national government has ever defaulted&quot; ... that was similar to the preface in the US mortgage industry - prior to this crisis, real estate prices had never,  ever gone down nationwide in the US since the Great Depression.  If you assumed the last 60+ years meant something, any postal service type rating agency would have been hard pressed to say that the risk of a 10-20% decline in US real estate prices was anything but fantasy...</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>&#8220;In the Seattle area, our big transit agency, Sound Transit, has had to struggle to get a <span class="caps">AAA</span> rating, after years of getting a AA or just an A rating, while <span class="caps">WAMU</span>, which has gone bankrupt on the same sort of dodgy mortgage securities, got <span class="caps">AAA</span> the entire time.&#8221;</p>

	<p>Not to let facts get in the way of a good story, but Wamu has never been <span class="caps">AAA</span>, ever.</p>

	<p>I think the real challenge is separating the two issues of the mortgage bubble &#8211; fraud and collusion on the part of investment banks and rating agencies &#8211; that is bad and folks should go to jail and companies should be sued &#8211; and the separate issue of whether a gov&#8217;t agency would have done any better.</p>

	<p>Just like you said &#8211; &#8220;In Australia, despite the fact that no state or national government has ever defaulted&#8221; &#8230; that was similar to the preface in the US mortgage industry &#8211; prior to this crisis, real estate prices had never,  ever gone down nationwide in the US since the Great Depression.  If you assumed the last 60+ years meant something, any postal service type rating agency would have been hard pressed to say that the risk of a 10-20% decline in US real estate prices was anything but fantasy&#8230;</p>
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		<title>By: John F. Opie</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2008/10/20/discredited/comment-page-1/#comment-256162</link>
		<dc:creator>John F. Opie</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 20 Oct 2008 15:05:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/?p=8174#comment-256162</guid>
		<description>Hi -

It&#039;s actually worse than you think. The Rating Agencies helped their clients - who pay their bills - game the system, and indeed the system was gamed. This is one of the core aspects of the events leading up to the Panic of 2008: those who were to have been telling the public that something was very risky colluded with those holding those risk instruments to hide the fact that those instruments were so risky that giving them a risk rating was impossible.

This should be the basis for criminal inquiry. The rating agencies have fundamentally abused their position of trust - they are certified by the SEC as following proper statistical methods for determining risk - and should be, at the very least, de-certified.

If that puts them out of business, it is something that they dearly deserve.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Hi &#8211;<br />
It&#8217;s actually worse than you think. The Rating Agencies helped their clients &#8211; who pay their bills &#8211; game the system, and indeed the system was gamed. This is one of the core aspects of the events leading up to the Panic of 2008: those who were to have been telling the public that something was very risky colluded with those holding those risk instruments to hide the fact that those instruments were so risky that giving them a risk rating was impossible.</p>

	<p>This should be the basis for criminal inquiry. The rating agencies have fundamentally abused their position of trust &#8211; they are certified by the <span class="caps">SEC</span> as following proper statistical methods for determining risk &#8211; and should be, at the very least, de-certified.</p>

	<p>If that puts them out of business, it is something that they dearly deserve.</p>
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		<title>By: HH</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2008/10/20/discredited/comment-page-1/#comment-256158</link>
		<dc:creator>HH</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 20 Oct 2008 14:21:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/?p=8174#comment-256158</guid>
		<description>Another approach would be to establish a regulatory procedure for random review, by government auditors, of selected ratings, with penalties assessed against firms that deviate from accepted practices. Regulators could also have the final word on approving new risk measures and models for new types of securities. The same spot-check approach could be taken for private sector auditing of public companies. Regulators need not be ubiquitous in order to be effective.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Another approach would be to establish a regulatory procedure for random review, by government auditors, of selected ratings, with penalties assessed against firms that deviate from accepted practices. Regulators could also have the final word on approving new risk measures and models for new types of securities. The same spot-check approach could be taken for private sector auditing of public companies. Regulators need not be ubiquitous in order to be effective.</p>
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		<title>By: Alex</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2008/10/20/discredited/comment-page-1/#comment-256155</link>
		<dc:creator>Alex</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 20 Oct 2008 13:25:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/?p=8174#comment-256155</guid>
		<description>*Somebody* setting up a major public credit rating agency would probably have a salutary impact on the whole market. It&#039;s true that the agency would be conflicted WRT some public-sector orgs, but hey, there are commercial ones. But if OzRate&#039;s note on ANZ Bank or whoever is substantially different to S&amp;P&#039;s, people will want to know the reason why.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p><strong>Somebody</strong> setting up a major public credit rating agency would probably have a salutary impact on the whole market. It&#8217;s true that the agency would be conflicted <span class="caps">WRT</span> some public-sector orgs, but hey, there are commercial ones. But if OzRate&#8217;s note on <span class="caps">ANZ </span>Bank or whoever is substantially different to S&#038;P&#8217;s, people will want to know the reason why.</p>
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		<title>By: PHB</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2008/10/20/discredited/comment-page-1/#comment-256149</link>
		<dc:creator>PHB</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 20 Oct 2008 12:50:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/?p=8174#comment-256149</guid>
		<description>If a government agency rates a bond as AAA that is going to be taken as an implicit guarantee. So I don&#039;t quite see how you could have a government agency rate non-government bonds.

At the end of the day, ratings are bogus unless the rating entity has skin in the game. FDIC has a pretty good idea what its banks are doing. A government bond rating agency makes little sense, and insurance agency makes much more sense. But then you have the issue of political control. There is a real risk that if Republicans gained control of the insurance agency they would politicize it like they did with the DoJ.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>If a government agency rates a bond as <span class="caps">AAA</span> that is going to be taken as an implicit guarantee. So I don&#8217;t quite see how you could have a government agency rate non-government bonds.</p>

	<p>At the end of the day, ratings are bogus unless the rating entity has skin in the game. <span class="caps">FDIC</span> has a pretty good idea what its banks are doing. A government bond rating agency makes little sense, and insurance agency makes much more sense. But then you have the issue of political control. There is a real risk that if Republicans gained control of the insurance agency they would politicize it like they did with the DoJ.</p>
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		<title>By: John Quiggin</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2008/10/20/discredited/comment-page-1/#comment-256138</link>
		<dc:creator>John Quiggin</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 20 Oct 2008 08:42:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/?p=8174#comment-256138</guid>
		<description>jsalvati, this practice is the subject of current litigation

http://www.ct.gov/ag/cwp/view.asp?a=2795&amp;q=420390

the complaint shows how the bond insurers lobbied for the maintenance of discriminatory ratings</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>jsalvati, this practice is the subject of current litigation</p>

	<p><a href="http://www.ct.gov/ag/cwp/view.asp?a=2795&#038;q=420390" rel="nofollow">http://www.ct.gov/ag/cwp/view.asp?a=2795&#038;q=420390</a></p>

	<p>the complaint shows how the bond insurers lobbied for the maintenance of discriminatory ratings</p>
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		<title>By: jsalvati</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2008/10/20/discredited/comment-page-1/#comment-256134</link>
		<dc:creator>jsalvati</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 20 Oct 2008 08:04:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/?p=8174#comment-256134</guid>
		<description>Huh, have there been studies on rating agency bias against government entities? It seems bizarre to me.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Huh, have there been studies on rating agency bias against government entities? It seems bizarre to me.</p>
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		<title>By: shannonr</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2008/10/20/discredited/comment-page-1/#comment-256133</link>
		<dc:creator>shannonr</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 20 Oct 2008 07:58:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/?p=8174#comment-256133</guid>
		<description>That&#039;s a superb introduction. Kudos.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>That&#8217;s a superb introduction. Kudos.</p>
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		<title>By: Andrew</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2008/10/20/discredited/comment-page-1/#comment-256131</link>
		<dc:creator>Andrew</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 20 Oct 2008 07:27:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/?p=8174#comment-256131</guid>
		<description>Yeah it&#039;s really funny how differently they treat public agencies and private companies. In the Seattle area, our big transit agency, Sound Transit, has had to struggle to get a AAA rating, after years of getting a AA or just an A rating, while WAMU, which has gone bankrupt on the same sort of dodgy mortgage securities, got AAA the entire time.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Yeah it&#8217;s really funny how differently they treat public agencies and private companies. In the Seattle area, our big transit agency, Sound Transit, has had to struggle to get a <span class="caps">AAA</span> rating, after years of getting a AA or just an A rating, while <span class="caps">WAMU</span>, which has gone bankrupt on the same sort of dodgy mortgage securities, got <span class="caps">AAA</span> the entire time.</p>
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		<title>By: Rich Puchalsky</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2008/10/20/discredited/comment-page-1/#comment-256128</link>
		<dc:creator>Rich Puchalsky</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 20 Oct 2008 04:27:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/?p=8174#comment-256128</guid>
		<description>&quot;In the business section of the SAME NEWSPAPER is an article by a reporter solemnly explaining that nobody was at fault because the crisis was so big and unexpected and all-encompassing that nothing could have averted it.&quot;

Same newspaper?  Try same blog.

This idea is a good one, though.  The ratings agencies were convenient fictions, but there&#039;s no reason why people should let them continue now that the whole system is being propped up with public money.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>&#8220;In the business section of the <span class="caps">SAME NEWSPAPER</span> is an article by a reporter solemnly explaining that nobody was at fault because the crisis was so big and unexpected and all-encompassing that nothing could have averted it.&#8221;</p>

	<p>Same newspaper?  Try same blog.</p>

	<p>This idea is a good one, though.  The ratings agencies were convenient fictions, but there&#8217;s no reason why people should let them continue now that the whole system is being propped up with public money.</p>
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