Comments on: The future is a shoe being thrown at a human face – forever!

By: Aulus Gellius

Aulus Gellius — Sat, 27 Dec 2008 07:14:13 +0000

The more I think about it, the more I think more presidential deaths have to be on the list. For one thing, if you’re going to accept suspected poisonings for English kings, you ought to accept it for Harding (though probably not for Taylor): http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_Presidential_assassination_attempts#Warren_G._Harding

By: John Emerson

John Emerson — Sat, 27 Dec 2008 02:18:54 +0000

Some people think of the glass as half empty. Others think of it as half full. Some think of the Presidents who were assassinated, and other of the far greater number who weren’t. And then there are the normative questions about what the optimal number would be.

By: Watson Aname

Watson Aname — Fri, 26 Dec 2008 22:54:20 +0000

Is there any reason to think it’s just bad luck that it happens in a nation with an inordinately high level of gun violence in general, when compared to “similar” nations?

By: Chris

Chris — Fri, 26 Dec 2008 22:31:06 +0000

Zamfir in comment 7 raises an interesting point:

isn’t it a big statistical no-no to include the cases that made you notice the pattern in your research, especially with samll sample sizes?

Perhaps the data on English and French monarchs are meant to address this problem to some extent, but I think the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy is a real concern here – some nation’s leaders have to get killed more than any other’s, but there’s not necessarily sufficient reason to think that is anything more than bad luck.

By: Barry Freed

Barry Freed — Fri, 26 Dec 2008 12:29:13 +0000

Ah, drowned too, I see.

By: Gdr

Gdr — Fri, 26 Dec 2008 12:02:57 +0000

I don’t get the Cromwell joke.

Richard III was hanged, but that wasn’t his cause of death either.

By: Robert

Robert — Thu, 25 Dec 2008 08:54:07 +0000

See D^2D comments for lengthy and surprisingly bitter discussions of this topic.

Yow. Yes, even these light topics can leave the lingering taste of wormwood. Nonetheless, I concur with Sir S.

By: Barry Freed

Barry Freed — Thu, 25 Dec 2008 07:29:49 +0000

I second Lee A. Arnold’s sentiment above. Also, maybe I’m just being thick but I don’t get the Cromwell joke.

By: Lee A. Arnold

Lee A. Arnold — Thu, 25 Dec 2008 02:55:22 +0000

Daniel I think you are one of my favorite writers. There are so many good writers on this site. Happy Holidays!

By: Daniel

Daniel — Thu, 25 Dec 2008 01:35:36 +0000

Thus, having opened that can, you need to argue why you shouldn’t also adjust the crab fishermen rate for their differential exposure: if they are only at sea one-third the time then the relevant job-related mortality rate should be trebled

See D^2D comments for lengthy and surprisingly bitter discussions of this topic.

By: Robert

Robert — Thu, 25 Dec 2008 00:40:15 +0000

I think you’re simplifying the “exposure to risk” denominator. Once you allowed for a difference between the Army mortality rate in Iraq as opposed to elsewhere, you opened a can of worms. For example, surely Northern Pacific crab fishermen are at much higher risk while at sea than while on land. Thus, having opened that can, you need to argue why you shouldn’t also adjust the crab fishermen rate for their differential exposure: if they are only at sea one-third the time then the relevant job-related mortality rate should be trebled. Presidents are on duty 24/7, unless they’re reading My Pet Goat, so their exposure time is about right. In addition, one might want to look at the risks relative to the alternative occupations available; so you’d compare the mortality risk of Presidents to, say, those of governors, senators, and Hollywood actors, not crab fishermen.

By: Maximus

Maximus — Wed, 24 Dec 2008 19:14:58 +0000

The Pie Is Flat

By: KCinDC

KCinDC — Wed, 24 Dec 2008 19:07:23 +0000

nobody seems to have been sufficiently motivated to take him out.

There was the guy with the grenade.

By: Michael Drake

Michael Drake — Wed, 24 Dec 2008 15:56:30 +0000

You forgot to include the actuarials on Assistant to Otto Preminger, which I think are just slightly less favorable than those of Kamikaze.

By: apostropher

apostropher — Wed, 24 Dec 2008 15:31:35 +0000

Ronald Reagan was elected in 1980 and survived

Man, Reagan really did ruin everything.