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	<title>Comments on: Who Elected the Rating Agencies?</title>
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	<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2009/03/31/who-elected-the-rating-agencies/</link>
	<description>Out of the crooked timber of humanity, no straight thing was ever made</description>
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		<title>By: Tangurena</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2009/03/31/who-elected-the-rating-agencies/comment-page-1/#comment-271384</link>
		<dc:creator>Tangurena</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 03 Apr 2009 02:19:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/?p=10338#comment-271384</guid>
		<description>&lt;em&gt;The mess was caused, in part, due to the way regulations give special treatment to AAA rated securities regardless of how the market perceives them&lt;/em&gt; 

Many sorts of organizations are required to only invest in AAA rated instruments. Consequently, the market for AAA is about 10 times that of AA. The CDO issuers bullied or bribed the rating agencies to whitewash everything with AAA ratings.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p><em>The mess was caused, in part, due to the way regulations give special treatment to <span class="caps">AAA</span> rated securities regardless of how the market perceives them</em></p>

	<p>Many sorts of organizations are required to only invest in <span class="caps">AAA</span> rated instruments. Consequently, the market for <span class="caps">AAA</span> is about 10 times that of AA. The <span class="caps">CDO</span> issuers bullied or bribed the rating agencies to whitewash everything with <span class="caps">AAA</span> ratings.</p>
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		<title>By: John Quiggin</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2009/03/31/who-elected-the-rating-agencies/comment-page-1/#comment-271269</link>
		<dc:creator>John Quiggin</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 02 Apr 2009 11:25:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/?p=10338#comment-271269</guid>
		<description>BJF is right. The big problem is that governments have outsourced regulation to these guys. If corporations want to pay for the S&amp;P seal of approval for their toxic junk, I have no problem with that, but when municipalities are forced to buy &quot;insurance&quot; from companies like MBIA because, as a corporate, MBIA gets an AAA rating despite being less creditworthy than the average Indian village, there is a problem.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p><span class="caps">BJF</span> is right. The big problem is that governments have outsourced regulation to these guys. If corporations want to pay for the S&#038;P seal of approval for their toxic junk, I have no problem with that, but when municipalities are forced to buy &#8220;insurance&#8221; from companies like <span class="caps">MBIA</span> because, as a corporate, <span class="caps">MBIA</span> gets an <span class="caps">AAA</span> rating despite being less creditworthy than the average Indian village, there is a problem.</p>
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		<title>By: glenn</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2009/03/31/who-elected-the-rating-agencies/comment-page-1/#comment-271268</link>
		<dc:creator>glenn</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 02 Apr 2009 11:21:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/?p=10338#comment-271268</guid>
		<description>They were the reason for the fall of the Romans.

Look, Tom. Let&#039;s be honest, they make mistakes, but by and large, their ratings have worked for years. Investment grade ratings fail much less than junk. And AAA, least of all. They get criticized for being late to change ratings, and they get criticized for changing ratings too much, as a rating change itself can cause fundamentals to change. Damned if you do, damned if you dont&#039;. I certainly don&#039;t like the fact they hide behind the fact that their ratings are &#039;just opinions&#039; but clearly waaaay too many investors use a bond rating as the ONLY analytical source., and then they are not willing to admit to not doing their bit, their own homework. And most investors I know still value alot of their work and can set aside the structured products debacle. That&#039;s a very separate business; nearly everyone (they included) got that wrong.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>They were the reason for the fall of the Romans.</p>

	<p>Look, Tom. Let&#8217;s be honest, they make mistakes, but by and large, their ratings have worked for years. Investment grade ratings fail much less than junk. And <span class="caps">AAA</span>, least of all. They get criticized for being late to change ratings, and they get criticized for changing ratings too much, as a rating change itself can cause fundamentals to change. Damned if you do, damned if you dont&#8217;. I certainly don&#8217;t like the fact they hide behind the fact that their ratings are &#8216;just opinions&#8217; but clearly waaaay too many investors use a bond rating as the <span class="caps">ONLY</span> analytical source., and then they are not willing to admit to not doing their bit, their own homework. And most investors I know still value alot of their work and can set aside the structured products debacle. That&#8217;s a very separate business; nearly everyone (they included) got that wrong.</p>
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		<title>By: jonp72</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2009/03/31/who-elected-the-rating-agencies/comment-page-1/#comment-271216</link>
		<dc:creator>jonp72</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 01 Apr 2009 18:25:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/?p=10338#comment-271216</guid>
		<description>Didn&#039;t the bond rating agencies also play a role in the downfall of Dennis Kucinich as mayor of Cinncinnati?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Didn&#8217;t the bond rating agencies also play a role in the downfall of Dennis Kucinich as mayor of Cinncinnati?</p>
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		<title>By: Stuart</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2009/03/31/who-elected-the-rating-agencies/comment-page-1/#comment-271214</link>
		<dc:creator>Stuart</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 01 Apr 2009 17:38:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/?p=10338#comment-271214</guid>
		<description>As news becomes more online, wouldn&#039;t it be useful if journalists might take to uploading transcripts of all the interviews they do and link to them in the articles they create - this would seem to make them far more credible as if a statement seems odd then it gives access to the complete context of the statement (or as complete as can be reasonably achieved anyway). How you would persuade them to do so is another question.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>As news becomes more online, wouldn&#8217;t it be useful if journalists might take to uploading transcripts of all the interviews they do and link to them in the articles they create &#8211; this would seem to make them far more credible as if a statement seems odd then it gives access to the complete context of the statement (or as complete as can be reasonably achieved anyway). How you would persuade them to do so is another question.</p>
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		<title>By: Nur al-Cubicle</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2009/03/31/who-elected-the-rating-agencies/comment-page-1/#comment-271204</link>
		<dc:creator>Nur al-Cubicle</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 01 Apr 2009 15:23:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/?p=10338#comment-271204</guid>
		<description>The rating agencies are some sort of lobby.  I remember them playing a crucial role in removing the Prodi goverment in Italy.  Notice that now that Berlusconi is in power, there is not one peep from the raters.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>The rating agencies are some sort of lobby.  I remember them playing a crucial role in removing the Prodi goverment in Italy.  Notice that now that Berlusconi is in power, there is not one peep from the raters.</p>
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		<title>By: nnyhav</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2009/03/31/who-elected-the-rating-agencies/comment-page-1/#comment-271195</link>
		<dc:creator>nnyhav</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 01 Apr 2009 03:06:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/?p=10338#comment-271195</guid>
		<description>&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2009/0401/1224243794208.html&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Same paper, hours later&lt;/a&gt;. Sound-bites don&#039;t make for sound analysis.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p><a href="http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2009/0401/1224243794208.html" rel="nofollow">Same paper, hours later</a>. Sound-bites don&#8217;t make for sound analysis.</p>
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		<title>By: lemuel pitkin</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2009/03/31/who-elected-the-rating-agencies/comment-page-1/#comment-271190</link>
		<dc:creator>lemuel pitkin</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 01 Apr 2009 00:31:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/?p=10338#comment-271190</guid>
		<description>&lt;i&gt;the market almost always has already “downgraded” a bond by demanding higher yields far in advance of any actual downgrade by a ratings agency. GE bonds traded at below AAA ratings for months prior to any downgrade, and Lehman’s bonds were already trading at junk levels when S&amp;P finally decided to downgrade. Even more to the point, the CDO and derivative securities that were rated AAA always had to offer higher yields than “regular” AAA corporate debt, indicating that they were never AAA to begin with.&lt;/i&gt;

This is probably right as far as corporate and government securities go, but the argument most people make about the rating agencies and the real estate bubble is because it was much harder, even impossible, to independently asses the risk characteristics of the various mortgage-back securities, investors were far more dependent on the rating agencies than in other cases. So the general view seems to be that they played an independent role in the housing boom and bust, regardless of a regulation. 

Good discussion in &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.peri.umass.edu/fileadmin/pdf/working_papers/working_papers_151-200/WP180.pdf&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;this paper&lt;/a&gt;.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p><i>the market almost always has already &#8220;downgraded&#8221; a bond by demanding higher yields far in advance of any actual downgrade by a ratings agency. GE bonds traded at below <span class="caps">AAA</span> ratings for months prior to any downgrade, and Lehman&#8217;s bonds were already trading at junk levels when S&#038;P finally decided to downgrade. Even more to the point, the <span class="caps">CDO</span> and derivative securities that were rated <span class="caps">AAA</span> always had to offer higher yields than &#8220;regular&#8221; <span class="caps">AAA</span> corporate debt, indicating that they were never <span class="caps">AAA</span> to begin with.</i></p>

	<p>This is probably right as far as corporate and government securities go, but the argument most people make about the rating agencies and the real estate bubble is because it was much harder, even impossible, to independently asses the risk characteristics of the various mortgage-back securities, investors were far more dependent on the rating agencies than in other cases. So the general view seems to be that they played an independent role in the housing boom and bust, regardless of a regulation.</p>

	<p>Good discussion in <a href="http://www.peri.umass.edu/fileadmin/pdf/working_papers/working_papers_151-200/WP180.pdf" rel="nofollow">this paper</a>.</p>
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		<title>By: BJ Feng</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2009/03/31/who-elected-the-rating-agencies/comment-page-1/#comment-271183</link>
		<dc:creator>BJ Feng</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 31 Mar 2009 23:01:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/?p=10338#comment-271183</guid>
		<description>&quot;That ratio may rise to above 9.5 per cent, according to the Government, more than three times the European Union limit.&quot; 


Any and all actions can be seen through a political lens if one wishes, but it seems to me that there are legitimate reasons for a downgrade.  Furthermore, ratings are largely irrelevant except for regulatory purposes.  Any respectable bond manager does his or her own research and ratings follow market yields, not the other way around.  Put it in another way, the market almost always has already &quot;downgraded&quot; a bond by demanding higher yields far in advance of any actual downgrade by a ratings agency.  GE bonds traded at below AAA ratings for months prior to any downgrade, and Lehman&#039;s bonds were already trading at junk levels when S&amp;P finally decided to downgrade.  Even more to the point, the CDO and derivative securities that were rated AAA always had to offer higher yields than &quot;regular&quot; AAA corporate debt, indicating that they were never AAA to begin with.  

The mess was caused, in part, due to the way regulations give special treatment to AAA rated securities regardless of how the market perceives them.  The power of the ratings agencies come from regulations, they have only marginal influence on market yields and usually follow the yields.  Large impacts come from contractual obligations that would put bonds into technical default or subject them to renegotiation should they ever be rated below a certain point.  Other than that, the ratings are mostly irrelevant for investors and bond managers.  Regulations empower the agencies, it&#039;s all about the regulations.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>&#8220;That ratio may rise to above 9.5 per cent, according to the Government, more than three times the European Union limit.&#8221;</p>


	<p>Any and all actions can be seen through a political lens if one wishes, but it seems to me that there are legitimate reasons for a downgrade.  Furthermore, ratings are largely irrelevant except for regulatory purposes.  Any respectable bond manager does his or her own research and ratings follow market yields, not the other way around.  Put it in another way, the market almost always has already &#8220;downgraded&#8221; a bond by demanding higher yields far in advance of any actual downgrade by a ratings agency.  GE bonds traded at below <span class="caps">AAA</span> ratings for months prior to any downgrade, and Lehman&#8217;s bonds were already trading at junk levels when S&#038;P finally decided to downgrade.  Even more to the point, the <span class="caps">CDO</span> and derivative securities that were rated <span class="caps">AAA</span> always had to offer higher yields than &#8220;regular&#8221; <span class="caps">AAA</span> corporate debt, indicating that they were never <span class="caps">AAA</span> to begin with.</p>

	<p>The mess was caused, in part, due to the way regulations give special treatment to <span class="caps">AAA</span> rated securities regardless of how the market perceives them.  The power of the ratings agencies come from regulations, they have only marginal influence on market yields and usually follow the yields.  Large impacts come from contractual obligations that would put bonds into technical default or subject them to renegotiation should they ever be rated below a certain point.  Other than that, the ratings are mostly irrelevant for investors and bond managers.  Regulations empower the agencies, it&#8217;s all about the regulations.</p>
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		<title>By: Tom Morris</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2009/03/31/who-elected-the-rating-agencies/comment-page-1/#comment-271182</link>
		<dc:creator>Tom Morris</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 31 Mar 2009 22:39:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/?p=10338#comment-271182</guid>
		<description>This is the same Standard &amp; Poor&#039;s who said that Lehman Brothers was rated &#039;A&#039; a few days before they filed for bankruptcy. Call me cynical, but I think I&#039;ll take all their future ratings with a big grain of salt, especially since their call is part of the reason that a family member&#039;s &quot;guaranteed growth&quot; bond - an investment sold as extremely safe and put there to safeguard money for tuition fees - now has 20% less money in it than it did a year ago. Thanks guys. These hucksters are the reason I&#039;m very tempted to take every penny out of every bank account and stow it in a shoebox under my damn bed.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>This is the same Standard &#038; Poor&#8217;s who said that Lehman Brothers was rated &#8216;A&#8217; a few days before they filed for bankruptcy. Call me cynical, but I think I&#8217;ll take all their future ratings with a big grain of salt, especially since their call is part of the reason that a family member&#8217;s &#8220;guaranteed growth&#8221; bond &#8211; an investment sold as extremely safe and put there to safeguard money for tuition fees &#8211; now has 20% less money in it than it did a year ago. Thanks guys. These hucksters are the reason I&#8217;m very tempted to take every penny out of every bank account and stow it in a shoebox under my damn bed.</p>
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		<title>By: John Quiggin</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2009/03/31/who-elected-the-rating-agencies/comment-page-1/#comment-271180</link>
		<dc:creator>John Quiggin</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 31 Mar 2009 22:28:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/?p=10338#comment-271180</guid>
		<description>I&#039;ve had a few goes at this topic in the Australian context. Our State government in Queensland was just re-elected, following a downgrade by Standard &amp; Poors, which would have been unthinkable (at any rate unlikely) not long ago.

http://johnquiggin.com/index.php/archives/2009/02/27/standard-poor/

Here are some tentative suggestions for an alternative, along the lines suggested by Paul

http://johnquiggin.com/index.php/archives/2008/03/08/after-the-ratings-agencies/</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>I&#8217;ve had a few goes at this topic in the Australian context. Our State government in Queensland was just re-elected, following a downgrade by Standard &#038; Poors, which would have been unthinkable (at any rate unlikely) not long ago.</p>

	<p><a href="http://johnquiggin.com/index.php/archives/2009/02/27/standard-poor/" rel="nofollow">http://johnquiggin.com/index.php/archives/2009/02/27/standard-poor/</a></p>

	<p>Here are some tentative suggestions for an alternative, along the lines suggested by Paul</p>

	<p><a href="http://johnquiggin.com/index.php/archives/2008/03/08/after-the-ratings-agencies/" rel="nofollow">http://johnquiggin.com/index.php/archives/2008/03/08/after-the-ratings-agencies/</a></p>
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		<title>By: noname</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2009/03/31/who-elected-the-rating-agencies/comment-page-1/#comment-271179</link>
		<dc:creator>noname</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 31 Mar 2009 22:00:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/?p=10338#comment-271179</guid>
		<description>Obama is running GM,  Credit agencies are running the Irish government.
&quot;And I think to myself... What a wonderful world.&quot; :-)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Obama is running GM,  Credit agencies are running the Irish government.<br />
&#8220;And I think to myself&#8230; What a wonderful world.&#8221; :-)</p>
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		<title>By: Paul Lettan</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2009/03/31/who-elected-the-rating-agencies/comment-page-1/#comment-271177</link>
		<dc:creator>Paul Lettan</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 31 Mar 2009 21:48:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/?p=10338#comment-271177</guid>
		<description>Perhaps time to take credit ratings away from the private sector and give the responsibility to the World Bank or some other international body. Third world countries have long been aware of this reality.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Perhaps time to take credit ratings away from the private sector and give the responsibility to the World Bank or some other international body. Third world countries have long been aware of this reality.</p>
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