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	<title>Comments on: Refuted/obsolete economic doctrines #7:New Keynesian macroeconomics</title>
	<atom:link href="http://crookedtimber.org/2009/05/09/refutedobsolete-economic-doctrines-7new-keynesian-macroeconomics/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2009/05/09/refutedobsolete-economic-doctrines-7new-keynesian-macroeconomics/</link>
	<description>Out of the crooked timber of humanity, no straight thing was ever made</description>
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		<title>By: dsquared</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2009/05/09/refutedobsolete-economic-doctrines-7new-keynesian-macroeconomics/comment-page-1/#comment-275437</link>
		<dc:creator>dsquared</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 13 May 2009 09:36:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/?p=11069#comment-275437</guid>
		<description>At the end of the day, although Paul Davidson does write some good stuff, if you look at the final chapter of his books, his actual policy prescription is pretty thin.  It involves a prices &amp; incomes policy to control inflation, and constant easy credit for everything else (I have occasionally joked in the past that Davidson is actually a Friedmanite who advocates a k% monetary growth rule - he just thinks that k should be a big number).</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>At the end of the day, although Paul Davidson does write some good stuff, if you look at the final chapter of his books, his actual policy prescription is pretty thin.  It involves a prices &#038; incomes policy to control inflation, and constant easy credit for everything else (I have occasionally joked in the past that Davidson is actually a Friedmanite who advocates a k% monetary growth rule &#8211; he just thinks that k should be a big number).</p>
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		<title>By: Robert</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2009/05/09/refutedobsolete-economic-doctrines-7new-keynesian-macroeconomics/comment-page-1/#comment-275436</link>
		<dc:creator>Robert</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 13 May 2009 09:05:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/?p=11069#comment-275436</guid>
		<description>Michal Kalecki was indeed prescient. Not having the intellect of Mr. Worstall, I fail to see how agreeing with Kalecki can imply that Keynes did not have a true account of the economy.

By the way, Joan Robinson and her colleagues had worked out a theory of stagflation by the early 1960s. Post Keynesians were advocating some sort of incomes policy, maybe a Tax-based Incomes Policy, in the 1970s.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Michal Kalecki was indeed prescient. Not having the intellect of Mr. Worstall, I fail to see how agreeing with Kalecki can imply that Keynes did not have a true account of the economy.</p>

	<p>By the way, Joan Robinson and her colleagues had worked out a theory of stagflation by the early 1960s. Post Keynesians were advocating some sort of incomes policy, maybe a Tax-based Incomes Policy, in the 1970s.</p>
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		<title>By: Tim Worstall</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2009/05/09/refutedobsolete-economic-doctrines-7new-keynesian-macroeconomics/comment-page-1/#comment-275353</link>
		<dc:creator>Tim Worstall</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 12 May 2009 12:00:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/?p=11069#comment-275353</guid>
		<description>&quot;The job of economists is to come up with true accounts of the economy.&quot;

Sure. In composing that true account, should we not include the actual, as opposed to desired, incentives facing politicians?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>&#8220;The job of economists is to come up with true accounts of the economy.&#8221;</p>

	<p>Sure. In composing that true account, should we not include the actual, as opposed to desired, incentives facing politicians?</p>
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		<title>By: bert</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2009/05/09/refutedobsolete-economic-doctrines-7new-keynesian-macroeconomics/comment-page-1/#comment-275331</link>
		<dc:creator>bert</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 12 May 2009 01:24:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/?p=11069#comment-275331</guid>
		<description>Automatic stabilisers may be institutionalised. But they operate at any given moment as part of an overall macroeconomic policy framework. And, since they are both automatic and countercyclical, they put a pretty big hole in the argument that fiscal policy is a uniquely bad instrument. 
Of course, I understand the argument about deficit-financing leading to mounting deficits. And it makes sense to worry about unfunded liabilities when you&#039;re thinking about how to manage your public finances. But I bridle somewhat when I hear these arguments coming from movement-conservative (Norquist variant) taxcutting headbangers. Dick Cheney told Paul O&#039;Neill that &quot;Reagan proved deficits don&#039;t matter&quot;. We can have a civilised conversation about Keynesian profligacy when I see conservatives honestly trying to figure out what the fuck happened with that one.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Automatic stabilisers may be institutionalised. But they operate at any given moment as part of an overall macroeconomic policy framework. And, since they are both automatic and countercyclical, they put a pretty big hole in the argument that fiscal policy is a uniquely bad instrument.<br />
Of course, I understand the argument about deficit-financing leading to mounting deficits. And it makes sense to worry about unfunded liabilities when you&#8217;re thinking about how to manage your public finances. But I bridle somewhat when I hear these arguments coming from movement-conservative (Norquist variant) taxcutting headbangers. Dick Cheney told Paul O&#8217;Neill that &#8220;Reagan proved deficits don&#8217;t matter&#8221;. We can have a civilised conversation about Keynesian profligacy when I see conservatives honestly trying to figure out what the fuck happened with that one.</p>
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		<title>By: Robert</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2009/05/09/refutedobsolete-economic-doctrines-7new-keynesian-macroeconomics/comment-page-1/#comment-275326</link>
		<dc:creator>Robert</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 12 May 2009 00:00:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/?p=11069#comment-275326</guid>
		<description>I take one political implication of the complex dynamics I point to in 26 to be that counter-cyclical fine-tuning, either with fiscal or monetary policy, is unreliable. Keynes-Keynesian policy was more concerned with institution-building, anyways. I am thinking of such matters as the Glass-Steagall act, automatic stabilizers such as unemployment insurance, and the Bretton Woods agreements themselves (although Keynes compromised there).</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>I take one political implication of the complex dynamics I point to in 26 to be that counter-cyclical fine-tuning, either with fiscal or monetary policy, is unreliable. Keynes-Keynesian policy was more concerned with institution-building, anyways. I am thinking of such matters as the Glass-Steagall act, automatic stabilizers such as unemployment insurance, and the Bretton Woods agreements themselves (although Keynes compromised there).</p>
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		<title>By: BillC</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2009/05/09/refutedobsolete-economic-doctrines-7new-keynesian-macroeconomics/comment-page-1/#comment-275325</link>
		<dc:creator>BillC</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 11 May 2009 23:58:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/?p=11069#comment-275325</guid>
		<description>When was neoclassical economic theory proven true in any useful way such that it deserves to be treated  in the way described in post #8?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>When was neoclassical economic theory proven true in any useful way such that it deserves to be treated  in the way described in post #8?</p>
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		<title>By: Kevin Donoghue</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2009/05/09/refutedobsolete-economic-doctrines-7new-keynesian-macroeconomics/comment-page-1/#comment-275307</link>
		<dc:creator>Kevin Donoghue</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 11 May 2009 19:48:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/?p=11069#comment-275307</guid>
		<description>Sebastian,

As to the differences between the Bretton Woods era and the post-Reagan era: take a look at the &lt;a href=&quot;http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/04/07/the-financial-factor/&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;first graph (the blue line)&lt;/a&gt; in this Krugman post. (The rest of the post isn’t so relevant, though it’s not irrelevant either.) Now you may not see anything there that bothers you, but as a regular reader you know a bit about John Quiggin’s politics, so you can probably see what bothers him. It bothers me too, not so much because I care about equality for its own sake (I don’t begrudge the “Cork mafia” their yachts in the least), but because the Dubya era brought home to me a truth which Machiavelli knew: when the rich get &lt;em&gt;very&lt;/em&gt; rich they don’t just settle for wealth, they want to buy power as well.

As for your last paragraph, there are times when laymen should stay out of economists’ arguments but I think this post is about a topic which is too important to be left to the economists: how does their conventional wisdom get established and what, if anything, does that have to do with empirical validity?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Sebastian,</p>

	<p>As to the differences between the Bretton Woods era and the post-Reagan era: take a look at the <a href="http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/04/07/the-financial-factor/" rel="nofollow">first graph (the blue line)</a> in this Krugman post. (The rest of the post isn&#8217;t so relevant, though it&#8217;s not irrelevant either.) Now you may not see anything there that bothers you, but as a regular reader you know a bit about John Quiggin&#8217;s politics, so you can probably see what bothers him. It bothers me too, not so much because I care about equality for its own sake (I don&#8217;t begrudge the &#8220;Cork mafia&#8221; their yachts in the least), but because the Dubya era brought home to me a truth which Machiavelli knew: when the rich get <em>very</em> rich they don&#8217;t just settle for wealth, they want to buy power as well.</p>

	<p>As for your last paragraph, there are times when laymen should stay out of economists&#8217; arguments but I think this post is about a topic which is too important to be left to the economists: how does their conventional wisdom get established and what, if anything, does that have to do with empirical validity?</p>
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		<title>By: Sebastian</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2009/05/09/refutedobsolete-economic-doctrines-7new-keynesian-macroeconomics/comment-page-1/#comment-275303</link>
		<dc:creator>Sebastian</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 11 May 2009 19:02:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/?p=11069#comment-275303</guid>
		<description>I have to agree with #2.  There aren&#039;t many real live politicians who are Keynesian during the economic expansion.  Government action has a very strong ratchet effect.  It sticks around for the same reasons as stupid farm subsidies (or maybe it is exactly the same problem as stupid farm subsidies).  So if the general Keynesian explanations are correct, I suppose the poltical/economic question you should be analyzing is how to practically enact them on the expansion side.  

I&#039;m also a little confused by the framing of &quot;The big question for the crisis and after is how to develop and sustain a Keynesian system of macroeconomic management that can deliver outcomes comparable to those of the Bretton Woods era, while avoiding the excesses and imbalances that brought that system to an end in the 1970s&quot;.  Maybe I&#039;m reading too much into it, but it seems like you were saying that the Bretton Woods era was essentially pretty good, up until the stuff at the end which made it untenable.  

But isn&#039;t that exactly the same thing you could say about the late 1980s through 2005?  It seems that was at least as successful during the non-crisis years as Bretton Woods.

And really, which years are you counting as the good years of Bretton Woods?  The Marshall Plan years which propped it up immediately post-war?  The balance of payment crisis years 58-68?  How many good years did it really have as a system?  

(Again I just have popular-level understanding, so I&#039;m raising questions which I admit may have obvious answers to formal economists).</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>I have to agree with #2.  There aren&#8217;t many real live politicians who are Keynesian during the economic expansion.  Government action has a very strong ratchet effect.  It sticks around for the same reasons as stupid farm subsidies (or maybe it is exactly the same problem as stupid farm subsidies).  So if the general Keynesian explanations are correct, I suppose the poltical/economic question you should be analyzing is how to practically enact them on the expansion side.</p>

	<p>I&#8217;m also a little confused by the framing of &#8220;The big question for the crisis and after is how to develop and sustain a Keynesian system of macroeconomic management that can deliver outcomes comparable to those of the Bretton Woods era, while avoiding the excesses and imbalances that brought that system to an end in the 1970s&#8221;.  Maybe I&#8217;m reading too much into it, but it seems like you were saying that the Bretton Woods era was essentially pretty good, up until the stuff at the end which made it untenable.</p>

	<p>But isn&#8217;t that exactly the same thing you could say about the late 1980s through 2005?  It seems that was at least as successful during the non-crisis years as Bretton Woods.</p>

	<p>And really, which years are you counting as the good years of Bretton Woods?  The Marshall Plan years which propped it up immediately post-war?  The balance of payment crisis years 58-68?  How many good years did it really have as a system?</p>

	<p>(Again I just have popular-level understanding, so I&#8217;m raising questions which I admit may have obvious answers to formal economists).</p>
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		<title>By: Kevin Donoghue</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2009/05/09/refutedobsolete-economic-doctrines-7new-keynesian-macroeconomics/comment-page-1/#comment-275273</link>
		<dc:creator>Kevin Donoghue</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 11 May 2009 14:40:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/?p=11069#comment-275273</guid>
		<description>&lt;em&gt;Suppose the cost-minimizing technique varies continuously along the so-called factor price frontier. Pasinetti pointed out that the value of capital to worker need not vary continuously in such a case.&lt;/em&gt;

Good for him and I regret giving up on his book and chucking it out when I moved house. But if I hadn&#039;t, would I really be any wiser about how &quot;how to develop and sustain a Keynesian system of macroeconomic management that can deliver outcomes comparable to those of the Bretton Woods era&quot;, which is what John Quiggin is interested in?

I&#039;m all for a more coherent approach to economic modelling, but let&#039;s not forget that one reason IS/LM held sway for so long is that it enabled readers of the FT to understand the opinion pieces. Not only that, but the Treasury model builders could use beefed-up versions of it for simulating the effects of different policies. Likewise, Friedman&#039;s accelerationist model enabled officials of modest brainpower to see why inflationary policies could only reduce unemployment for a while. Indeed the main reason why Keynes had such a large readership in his day is that he found wonderfully simple ways of expressing his main ideas - parables about buried banknotes, casinos etc. The Post-Keynesian school doesn&#039;t follow his lead in that respect.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p><em>Suppose the cost-minimizing technique varies continuously along the so-called factor price frontier. Pasinetti pointed out that the value of capital to worker need not vary continuously in such a case.</em></p>

	<p>Good for him and I regret giving up on his book and chucking it out when I moved house. But if I hadn&#8217;t, would I really be any wiser about how &#8220;how to develop and sustain a Keynesian system of macroeconomic management that can deliver outcomes comparable to those of the Bretton Woods era&#8221;, which is what John Quiggin is interested in?</p>

	<p>I&#8217;m all for a more coherent approach to economic modelling, but let&#8217;s not forget that one reason IS/LM held sway for so long is that it enabled readers of the FT to understand the opinion pieces. Not only that, but the Treasury model builders could use beefed-up versions of it for simulating the effects of different policies. Likewise, Friedman&#8217;s accelerationist model enabled officials of modest brainpower to see why inflationary policies could only reduce unemployment for a while. Indeed the main reason why Keynes had such a large readership in his day is that he found wonderfully simple ways of expressing his main ideas &#8211; parables about buried banknotes, casinos etc. The Post-Keynesian school doesn&#8217;t follow his lead in that respect.</p>
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		<title>By: Hidari</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2009/05/09/refutedobsolete-economic-doctrines-7new-keynesian-macroeconomics/comment-page-1/#comment-275264</link>
		<dc:creator>Hidari</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 11 May 2009 10:06:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/?p=11069#comment-275264</guid>
		<description>http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_institutional_economics</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_institutional_economics" rel="nofollow">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_institutional_economics</a></p>
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		<title>By: Hidari</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2009/05/09/refutedobsolete-economic-doctrines-7new-keynesian-macroeconomics/comment-page-1/#comment-275261</link>
		<dc:creator>Hidari</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 11 May 2009 09:52:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/?p=11069#comment-275261</guid>
		<description>That should of course have said Institutionalist.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>That should of course have said Institutionalist.</p>
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		<title>By: Hidari</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2009/05/09/refutedobsolete-economic-doctrines-7new-keynesian-macroeconomics/comment-page-1/#comment-275260</link>
		<dc:creator>Hidari</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 11 May 2009 09:50:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/?p=11069#comment-275260</guid>
		<description>&#039;Institutionalism, which lies, in some sense, between the Historical Schools and Evolutionary Economics, is another.&#039;

My understanding is that Hodgson, who wrote the piece that I linked to, describes himself as an Institionalist. 

It&#039;s an interesting point that JQ raises though. I can well imagine what the Austrian school and Marxists are making of the current crisis. But what ARE other, &#039;heterodox&#039; schools saying? What is the view of the Institutionalists, and EE (Evolutionary Economics)?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>&#8216;Institutionalism, which lies, in some sense, between the Historical Schools and Evolutionary Economics, is another.&#8217;</p>

	<p>My understanding is that Hodgson, who wrote the piece that I linked to, describes himself as an Institionalist.</p>

	<p>It&#8217;s an interesting point that JQ raises though. I can well imagine what the Austrian school and Marxists are making of the current crisis. But what <span class="caps">ARE</span> other, &#8216;heterodox&#8217; schools saying? What is the view of the Institutionalists, and <span class="caps">EE </span>(Evolutionary Economics)?</p>
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		<title>By: Robert</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2009/05/09/refutedobsolete-economic-doctrines-7new-keynesian-macroeconomics/comment-page-1/#comment-275258</link>
		<dc:creator>Robert</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 11 May 2009 09:18:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/?p=11069#comment-275258</guid>
		<description>John, so have you been reading Shackle? Do you understand what contribution of Davidson&#039;s I was previously alluding to? I am not arguing these ideas are more important than Minsky&#039;s. I am just demonstrating than one can find more than Minsky in the alternative that is Post Keynesianism.

I could go on, as I will demonstrate by turning to the Cambridge-Cambridge debate. Suppose the cost-minimizing technique varies continuously along the so-called factor price frontier. Pasinetti pointed out that the value of capital to worker need not vary continuously in such a case. This suggests exploring the application of bifurcations, complex dynamics, and catastrophe theory to capital theory. And Rosser has done this.

And Post Keynesianism is only one alternative. Institutionalism, which lies, in some sense, between the Historical Schools and Evolutionary Economics, is another. And there are more.

I suppose Quiggin could find ideas to rip out of their context here and to use as epicycles for neoclassical economics. But I&#039;m with Pitkin in comment 3.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>John, so have you been reading Shackle? Do you understand what contribution of Davidson&#8217;s I was previously alluding to? I am not arguing these ideas are more important than Minsky&#8217;s. I am just demonstrating than one can find more than Minsky in the alternative that is Post Keynesianism.</p>

	<p>I could go on, as I will demonstrate by turning to the Cambridge-Cambridge debate. Suppose the cost-minimizing technique varies continuously along the so-called factor price frontier. Pasinetti pointed out that the value of capital to worker need not vary continuously in such a case. This suggests exploring the application of bifurcations, complex dynamics, and catastrophe theory to capital theory. And Rosser has done this.</p>

	<p>And Post Keynesianism is only one alternative. Institutionalism, which lies, in some sense, between the Historical Schools and Evolutionary Economics, is another. And there are more.</p>

	<p>I suppose Quiggin could find ideas to rip out of their context here and to use as epicycles for neoclassical economics. But I&#8217;m with Pitkin in comment 3.</p>
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		<title>By: John Quiggin</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2009/05/09/refutedobsolete-economic-doctrines-7new-keynesian-macroeconomics/comment-page-1/#comment-275232</link>
		<dc:creator>John Quiggin</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 10 May 2009 22:50:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/?p=11069#comment-275232</guid>
		<description>Robert, you do seem rather grumpy. I&#039;m not trying for a comprehensive survey of economic thought in blogpost form here. I&#039;m looking at ideas that appear to have been refuted by the financial crisis, and conversely at alternatives that might help provide a way forward. 

In this context, as I&#039;ve mentioned, the most interesting post-Keynesian ideas seem to me to be those following Minsky on financial instability and, at a more abstract level, ideas about uncertainty, unforeseen contingencies and so on. But, if you think other ideas are more important, why don&#039;t you write something about them, rather than sniping.

Hidari, I&#039;m certainly not excluding behavioral economics - that&#039;s exactly the approach Akerlof and Shiller are advocating (although there&#039;s a bit of inside-baseball controversy about whether this or that approach is &quot;really behavioral economics&quot;). Experimental economics is absolutely mainstream - Vernon Smith got the Nobel for it not long ago. As regards the other approaches you mention, I haven&#039;t seen anything on these lines that&#039;s been very useful in understanding the current crisis, but feel free to point me in the right direction.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Robert, you do seem rather grumpy. I&#8217;m not trying for a comprehensive survey of economic thought in blogpost form here. I&#8217;m looking at ideas that appear to have been refuted by the financial crisis, and conversely at alternatives that might help provide a way forward.</p>

	<p>In this context, as I&#8217;ve mentioned, the most interesting post-Keynesian ideas seem to me to be those following Minsky on financial instability and, at a more abstract level, ideas about uncertainty, unforeseen contingencies and so on. But, if you think other ideas are more important, why don&#8217;t you write something about them, rather than sniping.</p>

	<p>Hidari, I&#8217;m certainly not excluding behavioral economics &#8211; that&#8217;s exactly the approach Akerlof and Shiller are advocating (although there&#8217;s a bit of inside-baseball controversy about whether this or that approach is &#8220;really behavioral economics&#8221;). Experimental economics is absolutely mainstream &#8211; Vernon Smith got the Nobel for it not long ago. As regards the other approaches you mention, I haven&#8217;t seen anything on these lines that&#8217;s been very useful in understanding the current crisis, but feel free to point me in the right direction.</p>
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		<title>By: Walt</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2009/05/09/refutedobsolete-economic-doctrines-7new-keynesian-macroeconomics/comment-page-1/#comment-275230</link>
		<dc:creator>Walt</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 10 May 2009 21:27:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/?p=11069#comment-275230</guid>
		<description>Stuart and Tim: You&#039;re putting the cart before the horse.  The job of economists is to come up with true accounts of the economy.  The job of economists is &lt;i&gt;not&lt;/i&gt; to come up with false accounts of the economy to better manipulate politicians into wise behavior.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Stuart and Tim: You&#8217;re putting the cart before the horse.  The job of economists is to come up with true accounts of the economy.  The job of economists is <i>not</i> to come up with false accounts of the economy to better manipulate politicians into wise behavior.</p>
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