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	<title>Comments on: The Mitterrand gambit</title>
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	<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2009/05/26/the-mitterrand-gambit/</link>
	<description>Out of the crooked timber of humanity, no straight thing was ever made</description>
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		<title>By: chris y</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2009/05/26/the-mitterrand-gambit/comment-page-2/#comment-276862</link>
		<dc:creator>chris y</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 27 May 2009 18:25:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/?p=11281#comment-276862</guid>
		<description>&lt;i&gt;Can someone from the UK clarify if there is actually any chance at all PR will be introduced any time soon?&lt;/i&gt;

None whatsoever. Not least for the practical reasons put forward by Dave Weedon upthread. But also because too many MPs from the two major parties would find their seats at risk. Even if a desperate government tried to push it through, they would be outvoted by their own back benchers.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p><i>Can someone from the UK clarify if there is actually any chance at all PR will be introduced any time soon?</i></p>

	<p>None whatsoever. Not least for the practical reasons put forward by Dave Weedon upthread. But also because too many MPs from the two major parties would find their seats at risk. Even if a desperate government tried to push it through, they would be outvoted by their own back benchers.</p>
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		<title>By: Phil</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2009/05/26/the-mitterrand-gambit/comment-page-2/#comment-276826</link>
		<dc:creator>Phil</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 27 May 2009 14:51:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/?p=11281#comment-276826</guid>
		<description>&lt;i&gt;After one election people realised that there were a lot more SNP second votes around than they thought, so it was not a “wasted vote” to vote for them first.&lt;/i&gt;

I suspect it might work the other way round for the Lib Dems. See also Green and UKIP vote surges at Euro elections.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p><i>After one election people realised that there were a lot more <span class="caps">SNP</span> second votes around than they thought, so it was not a &#8220;wasted vote&#8221; to vote for them first.</i></p>

	<p>I suspect it might work the other way round for the Lib Dems. See also Green and <span class="caps">UKIP</span> vote surges at Euro elections.</p>
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		<title>By: Pete</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2009/05/26/the-mitterrand-gambit/comment-page-2/#comment-276767</link>
		<dc:creator>Pete</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 27 May 2009 10:01:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/?p=11281#comment-276767</guid>
		<description>#60 - exactly, the important thing in elections is more the ability to remove specific individuals as punishment for their past term or that of their party.

Now is the wrong time to introduce PR. There&#039;s too much public anger sloshing around. If there were to be a nonmajority or coalition government after the next FPTP election, then that would be a good time for it.

It&#039;s interesting to see what happened in Scotland following the introduction of PR; it served as an information transfer mechanism. After one election people realised that there were a lot more SNP second votes around than they thought, so it was not a &quot;wasted vote&quot; to vote for them first.

Whatever system is introduced in the UK, it must not have party lists.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>#60 &#8211; exactly, the important thing in elections is more the ability to remove specific individuals as punishment for their past term or that of their party.</p>

	<p>Now is the wrong time to introduce PR. There&#8217;s too much public anger sloshing around. If there were to be a nonmajority or coalition government after the next <span class="caps">FPTP</span> election, then that would be a good time for it.</p>

	<p>It&#8217;s interesting to see what happened in Scotland following the introduction of PR; it served as an information transfer mechanism. After one election people realised that there were a lot more <span class="caps">SNP</span> second votes around than they thought, so it was not a &#8220;wasted vote&#8221; to vote for them first.</p>

	<p>Whatever system is introduced in the UK, it must not have party lists.</p>
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		<title>By: Tim Wilkinson</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2009/05/26/the-mitterrand-gambit/comment-page-2/#comment-276766</link>
		<dc:creator>Tim Wilkinson</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 27 May 2009 09:33:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/?p=11281#comment-276766</guid>
		<description>In the alternative reality in which the expenses business is of importance beyond being a symptom or symbol - and so much so that it should itself directly be addressed by means of electoral reform - I suppose one could argue that introducing non-geographical representation would remove the need for second homes. Only slightly more seriously, lists would presumably facilitate central deselection by embarrassed party leaders of prominent expenses-offenders.

In reality, officially institutionalising the party system and eliminating constituency selection isn&#039;t likely to help with corrupt self-serving attitudes: I&#039;d bet there&#039;s a strong correlation between independence from the whips and a Serpico-like approach to expenses. I remember over a year ago on This Week a.k.a. the See if Portillo Says Something Slightly Indiscreet Show, he did: that Parliament is (not necessarily corrupt but) corrupting, specifically because the first thing a new member gets told is how they are expected to fiddle their expenses. 

And the party system is a great vehicle for propagating this kind of standard curriculum, as well as fostering the requisite attitude of safety in numbers/danger in individuality, abdication of personal responsibility etc.

Question: could party influence in parliament be eliminated/heavily reduced (with or without national lists) and if so, how, and what would the consequences be?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>In the alternative reality in which the expenses business is of importance beyond being a symptom or symbol &#8211; and so much so that it should itself directly be addressed by means of electoral reform &#8211; I suppose one could argue that introducing non-geographical representation would remove the need for second homes. Only slightly more seriously, lists would presumably facilitate central deselection by embarrassed party leaders of prominent expenses-offenders.</p>

	<p>In reality, officially institutionalising the party system and eliminating constituency selection isn&#8217;t likely to help with corrupt self-serving attitudes: I&#8217;d bet there&#8217;s a strong correlation between independence from the whips and a Serpico-like approach to expenses. I remember over a year ago on This Week a.k.a. the See if Portillo Says Something Slightly Indiscreet Show, he did: that Parliament is (not necessarily corrupt but) corrupting, specifically because the first thing a new member gets told is how they are expected to fiddle their expenses.</p>

	<p>And the party system is a great vehicle for propagating this kind of standard curriculum, as well as fostering the requisite attitude of safety in numbers/danger in individuality, abdication of personal responsibility etc.</p>

	<p>Question: could party influence in parliament be eliminated/heavily reduced (with or without national lists) and if so, how, and what would the consequences be?</p>
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		<title>By: ajay</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2009/05/26/the-mitterrand-gambit/comment-page-2/#comment-276765</link>
		<dc:creator>ajay</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 27 May 2009 08:53:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/?p=11281#comment-276765</guid>
		<description>21: &lt;i&gt;Since there’s only one President, it’s hard to see how “proportional representation” can apply. &lt;/i&gt;

You just have to pick a President with the right combination of attributes.

&quot;Down to the waist, I&#039;m a Tory of the most determined description, but my legs 
are a couple of confounded Radicals...&quot; - Iolanthe</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>21: <i>Since there&#8217;s only one President, it&#8217;s hard to see how &#8220;proportional representation&#8221; can apply. </i></p>

	<p>You just have to pick a President with the right combination of attributes.</p>

	<p>&#8220;Down to the waist, I&#8217;m a Tory of the most determined description, but my legs<br />
are a couple of confounded Radicals&#8230;&#8221; &#8211; Iolanthe</p>
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		<title>By: King Rat</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2009/05/26/the-mitterrand-gambit/comment-page-2/#comment-276764</link>
		<dc:creator>King Rat</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 27 May 2009 08:36:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/?p=11281#comment-276764</guid>
		<description>58: Certainly, it&#039;s possible that you could win a referendum on PR. But as I understand it the Labour Party is split on the issue between reformers and traditionalists, and the Tories are united against it. It&#039;s not just going to be Conservatives voting no.

I think this is where the No side would have an advantage-one of the advantages of FPTP is that it allows the electorate to comprehensively thrash an unpopular government. A referendum proposed by exactly the sort of unpopular government that has been thrashed by FPTP in the past seems to me to be under stiffer constraints than usual.

I suspect electoral reform is coming to the UK, as I say, within the next twenty years or so. I just think that it&#039;s unlikely to happen now.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>58: Certainly, it&#8217;s possible that you could win a referendum on PR. But as I understand it the Labour Party is split on the issue between reformers and traditionalists, and the Tories are united against it. It&#8217;s not just going to be Conservatives voting no.</p>

	<p>I think this is where the No side would have an advantage-one of the advantages of <span class="caps">FPTP</span> is that it allows the electorate to comprehensively thrash an unpopular government. A referendum proposed by exactly the sort of unpopular government that has been thrashed by <span class="caps">FPTP</span> in the past seems to me to be under stiffer constraints than usual.</p>

	<p>I suspect electoral reform is coming to the UK, as I say, within the next twenty years or so. I just think that it&#8217;s unlikely to happen now.</p>
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		<title>By: alex</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2009/05/26/the-mitterrand-gambit/comment-page-2/#comment-276757</link>
		<dc:creator>alex</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 27 May 2009 07:46:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/?p=11281#comment-276757</guid>
		<description>It seems to me that, outwith any particular objections to the US Senate&#039;s composition, powers, etc, the main issue is that the US Constitution is extraordinarily difficult to amend, precisely because the process for doing so demands such a high, &#039;democratic&#039; majority across the country. Couple that with a near-religious veneration which is completely alien to the way, for example, the French treat their constitutional texts, and you have a recipe for a country in which constitutional development mainly happens at the whim of five Supreme Court justices. Unintended consequences, anyone?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>It seems to me that, outwith any particular objections to the <span class="caps">US </span>Senate&#8217;s composition, powers, etc, the main issue is that the <span class="caps">US </span>Constitution is extraordinarily difficult to amend, precisely because the process for doing so demands such a high, &#8216;democratic&#8217; majority across the country. Couple that with a near-religious veneration which is completely alien to the way, for example, the French treat their constitutional texts, and you have a recipe for a country in which constitutional development mainly happens at the whim of five Supreme Court justices. Unintended consequences, anyone?</p>
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		<title>By: Tracy W</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2009/05/26/the-mitterrand-gambit/comment-page-2/#comment-276756</link>
		<dc:creator>Tracy W</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 27 May 2009 07:39:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/?p=11281#comment-276756</guid>
		<description>NZ switched to a partly-porportional representation system (MMP - you still vote for electorates as well as for parties, but the total distribution of seats in parliament is  determined by the party vote even if it means adding seats) and I&#039;m pretty sure that a fair few people voting for MMP did on the belief that it would help keep power in the left. 

Whadda we  get, first MMP election in 1996? A backroom deal between a moribound, vaguely right-wing National party and the populist, brain-dead NZ First. All voting systems are flawed, and a PR system may well have different results to the ones expected.

By the way, on a meta-level, I suspect I am not entirely rational about NZ First.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>NZ switched to a partly-porportional representation system (MMP &#8211; you still vote for electorates as well as for parties, but the total distribution of seats in parliament is  determined by the party vote even if it means adding seats) and I&#8217;m pretty sure that a fair few people voting for <span class="caps">MMP</span> did on the belief that it would help keep power in the left.</p>

	<p>Whadda we  get, first <span class="caps">MMP</span> election in 1996? A backroom deal between a moribound, vaguely right-wing National party and the populist, brain-dead <span class="caps">NZ </span>First. All voting systems are flawed, and a PR system may well have different results to the ones expected.</p>

	<p>By the way, on a meta-level, I suspect I am not entirely rational about <span class="caps">NZ </span>First.</p>
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		<title>By: Tom Hurka</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2009/05/26/the-mitterrand-gambit/comment-page-2/#comment-276755</link>
		<dc:creator>Tom Hurka</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 27 May 2009 07:20:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/?p=11281#comment-276755</guid>
		<description>There have now been three referenda on variants of PR in Canadian provinces within the last four years; it&#039;s lost every time, though it came very close to the required 60% the first time round in BC. (It did much worse the second time, which was in the last couple of weeks.)

One word against PR: Israel.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>There have now been three referenda on variants of PR in Canadian provinces within the last four years; it&#8217;s lost every time, though it came very close to the required 60% the first time round in BC. (It did much worse the second time, which was in the last couple of weeks.)</p>

	<p>One word against PR: Israel.</p>
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		<title>By: otto</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2009/05/26/the-mitterrand-gambit/comment-page-2/#comment-276751</link>
		<dc:creator>otto</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 27 May 2009 06:26:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/?p=11281#comment-276751</guid>
		<description>The real difficulty is that is has nothing whatever to do with the expenses scandal, since it&#039;s even more difficult to get rid of MPs under PRs systems than FPTP. Plus it would indeed provide right wing extremist politicians in the Westminster parliament, which would not be an advantage.  Plus the labour party will not agree to it. Plus is PR even popular with the public than FPTP?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>The real difficulty is that is has nothing whatever to do with the expenses scandal, since it&#8217;s even more difficult to get rid of MPs under PRs systems than <span class="caps">FPTP</span>. Plus it would indeed provide right wing extremist politicians in the Westminster parliament, which would not be an advantage.  Plus the labour party will not agree to it. Plus is PR even popular with the public than <span class="caps">FPTP</span>?</p>
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		<title>By: dsquared</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2009/05/26/the-mitterrand-gambit/comment-page-2/#comment-276750</link>
		<dc:creator>dsquared</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 27 May 2009 06:26:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/?p=11281#comment-276750</guid>
		<description>57: and yet, John Howard</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>57: and yet, John Howard</p>
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		<title>By: Cabalamat</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2009/05/26/the-mitterrand-gambit/comment-page-2/#comment-276741</link>
		<dc:creator>Cabalamat</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 27 May 2009 04:19:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/?p=11281#comment-276741</guid>
		<description>#1: &lt;i&gt;The problem as I see it is that it’s too obviously a way of cooking the Tory goose&lt;/i&gt;

I don&#039;t think that&#039;s an insuperable obstable. It would be an obstacle if Labour were to try to introduce it without a referendum. 

But with a referendum? All the people who vote for the Lib Dems or one of the smaller parties would have good reason to support it, as would Labour supporters, as the chance of a minority Labour government under PR would look nicer than the near-certainty of 15 years of Tory rule under FPTP. Tory supporters would be agianst PR, but they&#039;re only 35% of the voters, the other 65% would be broadly in favour.

And if a referendum did support PR, Cameron could hardly publically come out against it, even though privately he&#039;d be sobbing as the prime ministership passed out of his hands.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>#1: <i>The problem as I see it is that it&#8217;s too obviously a way of cooking the Tory goose</i></p>

	<p>I don&#8217;t think that&#8217;s an insuperable obstable. It would be an obstacle if Labour were to try to introduce it without a referendum.</p>

	<p>But with a referendum? All the people who vote for the Lib Dems or one of the smaller parties would have good reason to support it, as would Labour supporters, as the chance of a minority Labour government under PR would look nicer than the near-certainty of 15 years of Tory rule under <span class="caps">FPTP</span>. Tory supporters would be agianst PR, but they&#8217;re only 35% of the voters, the other 65% would be broadly in favour.</p>

	<p>And if a referendum did support PR, Cameron could hardly publically come out against it, even though privately he&#8217;d be sobbing as the prime ministership passed out of his hands.</p>
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		<title>By: derrida derider</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2009/05/26/the-mitterrand-gambit/comment-page-2/#comment-276737</link>
		<dc:creator>derrida derider</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 27 May 2009 02:39:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/?p=11281#comment-276737</guid>
		<description>#54, Mary Robinson won.  But where&#039;s the problem with that?  If a majority of voters (including Fine Gael voters) preferred to have Ms Robinson rather than Mr Lenihan as President then democracy is served better than if Mr Lenihan won.  That&#039;s why you have an STV.  But yes, its a stretch to call it &quot;proportional voting&quot;.

As a general proposition, elections with an STV penalise highly divisive candidates.  It makes &quot;mobilising the base&quot; a less effective strategy than it is in FPTP systems.  If you have compulsory voting as we in Australia do then divisive tactics are even less effective.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>#54, Mary Robinson won.  But where&#8217;s the problem with that?  If a majority of voters (including Fine Gael voters) preferred to have Ms Robinson rather than Mr Lenihan as President then democracy is served better than if Mr Lenihan won.  That&#8217;s why you have an <span class="caps">STV</span>.  But yes, its a stretch to call it &#8220;proportional voting&#8221;.</p>

	<p>As a general proposition, elections with an <span class="caps">STV</span> penalise highly divisive candidates.  It makes &#8220;mobilising the base&#8221; a less effective strategy than it is in <span class="caps">FPTP</span> systems.  If you have compulsory voting as we in Australia do then divisive tactics are even less effective.</p>
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		<title>By: P O'Neill</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2009/05/26/the-mitterrand-gambit/comment-page-2/#comment-276734</link>
		<dc:creator>P O'Neill</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 27 May 2009 00:15:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/?p=11281#comment-276734</guid>
		<description>#51
Irish Presidential election 1990: party, first preference vote, vote share
	Labour Party 	Mary Robinson 	612,265 	38.88%
	Fianna Fáil 	Brian Lenihan 	694,484 	44.10% 		
	Fine Gael 	Austin Currie 	267,902 	17.01%

Who won?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>#51<br />
Irish Presidential election 1990: party, first preference vote, vote share<br />
Labour Party Mary Robinson 612,265 38.88%<br />
Fianna F&#225;il Brian Lenihan 694,484 44.10%<br />
Fine Gael Austin Currie 267,902 17.01%</p>

	<p>Who won?</p>
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		<title>By: MH</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2009/05/26/the-mitterrand-gambit/comment-page-2/#comment-276732</link>
		<dc:creator>MH</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 26 May 2009 23:41:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/?p=11281#comment-276732</guid>
		<description>&#039;MH’s argument seems to boil down to “I’ve got mine, too bad for you.” &#039;

Actually, I think it would better be condensed as &quot;Sucks for everybody.&quot;  I haven&#039;t voted in a genuinely competitive Congressional election since 1992 or so.  That&#039;s hardly uncommon.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>&#8216;MH&#8217;s argument seems to boil down to &#8220;I&#8217;ve got mine, too bad for you.&#8221; &#8217;</p>

	<p>Actually, I think it would better be condensed as &#8220;Sucks for everybody.&#8221;  I haven&#8217;t voted in a genuinely competitive Congressional election since 1992 or so.  That&#8217;s hardly uncommon.</p>
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