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	<title>Comments on: La Deutschmark Vita</title>
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	<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2009/06/06/the-ecb-is-not-the-bundesbank-writ-large/</link>
	<description>Out of the crooked timber of humanity, no straight thing was ever made</description>
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		<title>By: bert</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2009/06/06/the-ecb-is-not-the-bundesbank-writ-large/comment-page-1/#comment-278437</link>
		<dc:creator>bert</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 10 Jun 2009 14:42:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/?p=11438#comment-278437</guid>
		<description>Myles@16 -
Don&#039;t get me wrong, I don&#039;t think toying around with European monetary policy is as easy as all that. There&#039;s a formal independence unequivocally granted to the ECB: 
&lt;blockquote&gt;Neither the ECB nor the national central banks, nor any member of their decision-making bodies, are allowed to seek or take instructions from European Community institutions or bodies, from any government of an EU Member State or from any other body. Community institutions and bodies and the governments of the Member States must respect this principle and not seek to influence the members of the decision-making bodies of the ECB (Article 108 of the Treaty)&lt;/blockquote&gt;
Of course, that&#039;s de jure independence - but it&#039;s also held up solidly in the real world.
What&#039;s the source of the US pressure? The role assigned to central banks in the crisis measures adopted by the Anglo-Saxons (unorthodox measures, quantitative easing, etc) and the demand that this approach be part of a common front that includes the ECB.
The pressure&#039;s been applied formally and informally through international forums and bilateral contacts, and has been partially successful in overriding internal resistance from German voices inside the ECB. The policy outcome we&#039;ve seen is the result of an internal debate inside the ECB Governing Council, conducted very roughly along Krugman vs Ferguson lines.

Henry&#039;s suggestion is that the public display of frustration by the German government will imperil central bank independence in Europe, assist the longterm Gaullist project of politicising monetary policy, and likely push policy outcomes away from the anti-inflationary purist end of the spectrum.
My scepticism draws in part on the observation that German politicians have for years run an &quot;excessive&quot; debt-to-GDP ratio without damaging the consensus arrangements agreed (at German insistence) at Maastricht. 
Nobody plans for the current unorthodox measures to be anything other than a temporary expedient, the consequences of which will need to be unravelled over time. Once more normal conditions return, treaty-enshrined independence and a clear anti-inflationary mandate will remain intact.

That said, if we get a nasty double-dip, things may fall apart in all kinds of unpredictable ways.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Myles@16 &#8211; Don&#8217;t get me wrong, I don&#8217;t think toying around with European monetary policy is as easy as all that. There&#8217;s a formal independence unequivocally granted to the <span class="caps">ECB</span>:<br />
<blockquote>Neither the <span class="caps">ECB</span> nor the national central banks, nor any member of their decision-making bodies, are allowed to seek or take instructions from European Community institutions or bodies, from any government of an <span class="caps">EU </span>Member State or from any other body. Community institutions and bodies and the governments of the Member States must respect this principle and not seek to influence the members of the decision-making bodies of the <span class="caps">ECB </span>(Article 108 of the Treaty)</blockquote><br />
Of course, that&#8217;s de jure independence &#8211; but it&#8217;s also held up solidly in the real world.<br />
What&#8217;s the source of the US pressure? The role assigned to central banks in the crisis measures adopted by the Anglo-Saxons (unorthodox measures, quantitative easing, etc) and the demand that this approach be part of a common front that includes the <span class="caps">ECB</span>.<br />
The pressure&#8217;s been applied formally and informally through international forums and bilateral contacts, and has been partially successful in overriding internal resistance from German voices inside the <span class="caps">ECB</span>. The policy outcome we&#8217;ve seen is the result of an internal debate inside the <span class="caps">ECB </span>Governing Council, conducted very roughly along Krugman vs Ferguson lines.</p>

	<p>Henry&#8217;s suggestion is that the public display of frustration by the German government will imperil central bank independence in Europe, assist the longterm Gaullist project of politicising monetary policy, and likely push policy outcomes away from the anti-inflationary purist end of the spectrum.<br />
My scepticism draws in part on the observation that German politicians have for years run an &#8220;excessive&#8221; debt-to-GDP ratio without damaging the consensus arrangements agreed (at German insistence) at Maastricht.<br />
Nobody plans for the current unorthodox measures to be anything other than a temporary expedient, the consequences of which will need to be unravelled over time. Once more normal conditions return, treaty-enshrined independence and a clear anti-inflationary mandate will remain intact.</p>

	<p>That said, if we get a nasty double-dip, things may fall apart in all kinds of unpredictable ways.</p>
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		<title>By: Danb</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2009/06/06/the-ecb-is-not-the-bundesbank-writ-large/comment-page-1/#comment-278417</link>
		<dc:creator>Danb</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 10 Jun 2009 12:04:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/?p=11438#comment-278417</guid>
		<description>I see two driving forces calling for a macroeconomic overhaul: 1) Bad Money (from author Kevin Phillips), which refers to the out of control and destructive  effects of  finance –which is a necessary sector but cannot produce significant value and wealth in a modern society-  and the Bottleneck of ecological circumstances (outlined by E.O. Wilson). Bad Money could lead our governments into insolvency. The Bottleneck ecological issues are largely hidden but very much intertwined with Bad Money. The most economically pressing ecological condition is that a plateau in crude oil production was reached about four years ago. This contributed to the economic crash of last summer. In effect, the geological limitation on oil production virtually guarantees a return to limitless economic growth is no longer possible.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>I see two driving forces calling for a macroeconomic overhaul: 1) Bad Money (from author Kevin Phillips), which refers to the out of control and destructive  effects of  finance &#8211;which is a necessary sector but cannot produce significant value and wealth in a modern society-  and the Bottleneck of ecological circumstances (outlined by E.O. Wilson). Bad Money could lead our governments into insolvency. The Bottleneck ecological issues are largely hidden but very much intertwined with Bad Money. The most economically pressing ecological condition is that a plateau in crude oil production was reached about four years ago. This contributed to the economic crash of last summer. In effect, the geological limitation on oil production virtually guarantees a return to limitless economic growth is no longer possible.</p>
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		<title>By: Myles SG</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2009/06/06/the-ecb-is-not-the-bundesbank-writ-large/comment-page-1/#comment-278407</link>
		<dc:creator>Myles SG</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 10 Jun 2009 10:37:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/?p=11438#comment-278407</guid>
		<description>&quot;Perhaps a conclusion from recent experience: Germany will continue to get its way inside the eurozone unless at the same time the US is putting its thumb on the scales.&quot;

That would be just be absurdist theatre; Deutschland has had better credit scores than Amerika since like forever. America trying to toy around with European monetary policy, at this (late) point in the game, would be kind of like the barbarian playing with the governance of the Roman fort.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>&#8220;Perhaps a conclusion from recent experience: Germany will continue to get its way inside the eurozone unless at the same time the US is putting its thumb on the scales.&#8221;</p>

	<p>That would be just be absurdist theatre; Deutschland has had better credit scores than Amerika since like forever. America trying to toy around with European monetary policy, at this (late) point in the game, would be kind of like the barbarian playing with the governance of the Roman fort.</p>
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		<title>By: StevenAttewell</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2009/06/06/the-ecb-is-not-the-bundesbank-writ-large/comment-page-1/#comment-278252</link>
		<dc:creator>StevenAttewell</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 09 Jun 2009 15:25:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/?p=11438#comment-278252</guid>
		<description>Novakant:

What you&#039;re describing is known as the &quot;paradox of thrift.&quot; And I don&#039;t think it&#039;s more responsible when it collectively leads to recession and unemployment - it&#039;s not really being driven by some underlying virtue of probity, but rather by an irrational fear of losing everything, akin to a run on a bank. 

The other option is to punish the entire economy by prolonging a recession.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Novakant:</p>

	<p>What you&#8217;re describing is known as the &#8220;paradox of thrift.&#8221; And I don&#8217;t think it&#8217;s more responsible when it collectively leads to recession and unemployment &#8211; it&#8217;s not really being driven by some underlying virtue of probity, but rather by an irrational fear of losing everything, akin to a run on a bank.</p>

	<p>The other option is to punish the entire economy by prolonging a recession.</p>
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		<title>By: stostosto</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2009/06/06/the-ecb-is-not-the-bundesbank-writ-large/comment-page-1/#comment-278230</link>
		<dc:creator>stostosto</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 09 Jun 2009 11:43:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/?p=11438#comment-278230</guid>
		<description>I think Zamfir #6 is spot on. 

The post-war &lt;i&gt;Wirtschaftswunder&lt;/i&gt;, perceived to be built on the strong and stable D-mark, is a huge source of national pride in a country that lost most other such sources in 12 short insane years.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>I think Zamfir #6 is spot on.</p>

	<p>The post-war <i>Wirtschaftswunder</i>, perceived to be built on the strong and stable D-mark, is a huge source of national pride in a country that lost most other such sources in 12 short insane years.</p>
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		<title>By: mpowell</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2009/06/06/the-ecb-is-not-the-bundesbank-writ-large/comment-page-1/#comment-278225</link>
		<dc:creator>mpowell</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 09 Jun 2009 09:22:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/?p=11438#comment-278225</guid>
		<description>12:  Well, there&#039;s no good way to address this.  It would be nice to reward people who have behaved responsibly, but a shrinking money supply really screws up the economy.  Is that worth having lots of productive people thrown into unemployment?  I think the consensus is that it&#039;s better to avoid that, if possible.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>12:  Well, there&#8217;s no good way to address this.  It would be nice to reward people who have behaved responsibly, but a shrinking money supply really screws up the economy.  Is that worth having lots of productive people thrown into unemployment?  I think the consensus is that it&#8217;s better to avoid that, if possible.</p>
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		<title>By: novakant</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2009/06/06/the-ecb-is-not-the-bundesbank-writ-large/comment-page-1/#comment-278125</link>
		<dc:creator>novakant</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 08 Jun 2009 12:38:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/?p=11438#comment-278125</guid>
		<description>&lt;i&gt;The problem with a recession is that people are unleveraging positions which are shrinking the effective money supply.&lt;/i&gt;

That is one of the problems with a recession, people are holding on to their money and investing more conservatively. But in the long run, I would say this form of behaviour is actually very commendable - especially since the current crisis has been caused by irresponsible lending and borrowing practices. And aren&#039;t we effectively punishing the people who have handled their money responsibly, by lowering interest rates and making money worth less by increasing the supply?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p><i>The problem with a recession is that people are unleveraging positions which are shrinking the effective money supply.</i></p>

	<p>That is one of the problems with a recession, people are holding on to their money and investing more conservatively. But in the long run, I would say this form of behaviour is actually very commendable &#8211; especially since the current crisis has been caused by irresponsible lending and borrowing practices. And aren&#8217;t we effectively punishing the people who have handled their money responsibly, by lowering interest rates and making money worth less by increasing the supply?</p>
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		<title>By: JoB</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2009/06/06/the-ecb-is-not-the-bundesbank-writ-large/comment-page-1/#comment-278119</link>
		<dc:creator>JoB</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 08 Jun 2009 11:44:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/?p=11438#comment-278119</guid>
		<description>Could somebody post on the European election only pan-European effects: low turn-out and a steady decline of the left wing?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Could somebody post on the European election only pan-European effects: low turn-out and a steady decline of the left wing?</p>
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		<title>By: Квартира в Праге</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2009/06/06/the-ecb-is-not-the-bundesbank-writ-large/comment-page-1/#comment-278118</link>
		<dc:creator>Квартира в Праге</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 08 Jun 2009 11:32:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/?p=11438#comment-278118</guid>
		<description>We won&#039;t see our money anymore. Just take it as is and leave your hopes! It&#039;s not a Europe I want to live in.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>We won&#8217;t see our money anymore. Just take it as is and leave your hopes! It&#8217;s not a Europe I want to live in.</p>
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		<title>By: mpowell</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2009/06/06/the-ecb-is-not-the-bundesbank-writ-large/comment-page-1/#comment-278117</link>
		<dc:creator>mpowell</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 08 Jun 2009 10:56:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/?p=11438#comment-278117</guid>
		<description>Re: 7, this is really a cop-out, but I would really just like to bring attention the point that I have seen this argued before and I am no expert on the issue personally.  The account I read claimed that for the agricultural class hyperinflation was better than what it took to bring inflation down.  Also, notably, it was only after the end of hyperinflation and continuing economic malaise that the Nazi party was able to come to power, which is I think the more relevant, and stronger, point.

Re: 8, I think you are oversimplifying the situation greatly.  There are many ways to make the argument that during a recession, deflation is a much greater concern than inflation.  Let me try to make the point this way: the goal of a central bank it to keep the money supply more or less constant.  Prices are sticky so this is pretty important.   The problem with a recession is that people are unleveraging positions which are shrinking the effective money supply.  The resulting distortions are relaxed with some inflation as opposed to deflation.  I don&#039;t think talk of spending money you don&#039;t have is very accurate.  The reason why is that we are concerned with increasing unemployment, which in addition to increasing human misery also leads to less production in the overall economy.  This unused labor force represents lost potential wealth.  So policy intended to correct that is definitely not try to &#039;spend money we don&#039;t have&#039;, but trying to get what we do have working as optimally as possible.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Re: 7, this is really a cop-out, but I would really just like to bring attention the point that I have seen this argued before and I am no expert on the issue personally.  The account I read claimed that for the agricultural class hyperinflation was better than what it took to bring inflation down.  Also, notably, it was only after the end of hyperinflation and continuing economic malaise that the Nazi party was able to come to power, which is I think the more relevant, and stronger, point.</p>

	<p>Re: 8, I think you are oversimplifying the situation greatly.  There are many ways to make the argument that during a recession, deflation is a much greater concern than inflation.  Let me try to make the point this way: the goal of a central bank it to keep the money supply more or less constant.  Prices are sticky so this is pretty important.   The problem with a recession is that people are unleveraging positions which are shrinking the effective money supply.  The resulting distortions are relaxed with some inflation as opposed to deflation.  I don&#8217;t think talk of spending money you don&#8217;t have is very accurate.  The reason why is that we are concerned with increasing unemployment, which in addition to increasing human misery also leads to less production in the overall economy.  This unused labor force represents lost potential wealth.  So policy intended to correct that is definitely not try to &#8216;spend money we don&#8217;t have&#8217;, but trying to get what we do have working as optimally as possible.</p>
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		<title>By: novakant</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2009/06/06/the-ecb-is-not-the-bundesbank-writ-large/comment-page-1/#comment-278114</link>
		<dc:creator>novakant</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 08 Jun 2009 09:51:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/?p=11438#comment-278114</guid>
		<description>&lt;i&gt;a little bout of inflation is not the most dangerous thing at the moment economically.&lt;/i&gt;

I&#039;m not an economist, but wasn&#039;t a major reason for the current economic crisis the UK/US nonchalance about spending money you don&#039;t have, embraced both by the respective governments and individuals. And isn&#039;t printing more money just another way of spending money you don&#039;t have?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p><i>a little bout of inflation is not the most dangerous thing at the moment economically.</i></p>

	<p>I&#8217;m not an economist, but wasn&#8217;t a major reason for the current economic crisis the UK/US nonchalance about spending money you don&#8217;t have, embraced both by the respective governments and individuals. And isn&#8217;t printing more money just another way of spending money you don&#8217;t have?</p>
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		<title>By: Tracy W</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2009/06/06/the-ecb-is-not-the-bundesbank-writ-large/comment-page-1/#comment-278105</link>
		<dc:creator>Tracy W</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 08 Jun 2009 08:40:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/?p=11438#comment-278105</guid>
		<description>&lt;i&gt; This would be wrong, of course, as would thinking that hyperinflation was the worst economic problem Germany faced pre-war. &lt;/i&gt;

Why would it be wrong to think that hyperinflation was the worst economic problem that Germany faced pre-war? I&#039;m genuinely curious here. I know that Germany had other serious economic problems, eg the reparations, the Great Depression in the rest of the world from 1929, but I am interested in what ranking mechanism you are using to say that those other problems were greater.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p><i> This would be wrong, of course, as would thinking that hyperinflation was the worst economic problem Germany faced pre-war. </i></p>

	<p>Why would it be wrong to think that hyperinflation was the worst economic problem that Germany faced pre-war? I&#8217;m genuinely curious here. I know that Germany had other serious economic problems, eg the reparations, the Great Depression in the rest of the world from 1929, but I am interested in what ranking mechanism you are using to say that those other problems were greater.</p>
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		<title>By: Zamfir</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2009/06/06/the-ecb-is-not-the-bundesbank-writ-large/comment-page-1/#comment-278102</link>
		<dc:creator>Zamfir</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 08 Jun 2009 08:10:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/?p=11438#comment-278102</guid>
		<description>You can easily put too much emphahisis on &quot;fear for hyperinflation&quot; . It&#039;s just as much the case that Germany has fared very, very well in the last 50 years under the low-inflation regime. What the Germans fear is probably less 1920&#039;s German inflation, and more post-war Italian inflation.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>You can easily put too much emphahisis on &#8220;fear for hyperinflation&#8221; . It&#8217;s just as much the case that Germany has fared very, very well in the last 50 years under the low-inflation regime. What the Germans fear is probably less 1920&#8217;s German inflation, and more post-war Italian inflation.</p>
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		<title>By: StevenAttewell</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2009/06/06/the-ecb-is-not-the-bundesbank-writ-large/comment-page-1/#comment-278093</link>
		<dc:creator>StevenAttewell</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 08 Jun 2009 05:02:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/?p=11438#comment-278093</guid>
		<description>&lt;blockquote&gt;The problem is, of course, that this weakens Germany’s position in the long run. Germany would greatly prefer a European central bank which pursued anti-inflationary policies and retained its independence, to one where anti-inflationary policies become the subject of political bargaining, even if, most of the time, Germany will prevail in the bargaining process.&lt;/blockquote&gt;

Well, I guess the question is which the Germans want more - a European Central Bank that&#039;s independent or a European Central Bank that&#039;s anti-inflationary. Seems to me that a big part of the problem is that the ECB&#039;s policies are violating part of the unspoken compact of central banking - Independence in return for nonpartisan expertise - by pushing a policy that virtually every other player in the process thinks is insane. The smart thing to do would be to &quot;switch in time to save nein.&quot;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p><blockquote>The problem is, of course, that this weakens Germany&#8217;s position in the long run. Germany would greatly prefer a European central bank which pursued anti-inflationary policies and retained its independence, to one where anti-inflationary policies become the subject of political bargaining, even if, most of the time, Germany will prevail in the bargaining process.</blockquote></p>

	<p>Well, I guess the question is which the Germans want more &#8211; a European Central Bank that&#8217;s independent or a European Central Bank that&#8217;s anti-inflationary. Seems to me that a big part of the problem is that the <span class="caps">ECB</span>&#8217;s policies are violating part of the unspoken compact of central banking &#8211; Independence in return for nonpartisan expertise &#8211; by pushing a policy that virtually every other player in the process thinks is insane. The smart thing to do would be to &#8220;switch in time to save nein.&#8221; </p>
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		<title>By: Jon Livesey</title>
		<link>http://crookedtimber.org/2009/06/06/the-ecb-is-not-the-bundesbank-writ-large/comment-page-1/#comment-278087</link>
		<dc:creator>Jon Livesey</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 08 Jun 2009 00:03:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crookedtimber.org/?p=11438#comment-278087</guid>
		<description>&quot;Somehow I think Germans obsession about inflation is a means of blaming Nazism on the hyperinflation preceeding it.&quot;    - or of blaming it on the allies who are blamed for the hyperinflation?

In addition to the very good points made by mpowel, maybe we should note two things.   First, calling something a &quot;lesson&quot; is a bit tendentious.   Nations and individuals learn neurotic lessons as well as rational ones, and the German obsession with inflation refers back to events that are nearly ninety years old.   Second, hyperinflation wasn&#039;t some sort of natural phenomenon, but the result of deliberate German Government policy.    If Germans are concerned about inflation, the answer is simple: &quot;Don&#039;t do that&quot;.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>&#8220;Somehow I think Germans obsession about inflation is a means of blaming Nazism on the hyperinflation preceeding it.&#8221;    &#8211; or of blaming it on the allies who are blamed for the hyperinflation?</p>

	<p>In addition to the very good points made by mpowel, maybe we should note two things.   First, calling something a &#8220;lesson&#8221; is a bit tendentious.   Nations and individuals learn neurotic lessons as well as rational ones, and the German obsession with inflation refers back to events that are nearly ninety years old.   Second, hyperinflation wasn&#8217;t some sort of natural phenomenon, but the result of deliberate German Government policy.    If Germans are concerned about inflation, the answer is simple: &#8220;Don&#8217;t do that&#8221;.</p>
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