November 02, 2004

Eight per cent swing to Kerry!

Posted by John Quiggin

The results for Dixville Notch are in !. Bush 19, Kerry 7. In 2000, Bush got 21 to Gore’s 5. There was a similar swing in Hart’s Location. Repeated nationwide, this swing would give Kerry a thumping victory1.

1 As bases for spurious predictions go, I’d rank this one somewhere between the Washington Redskins home games and Ray Fair’s econometric model.

Posted on November 2, 2004 06:26 AM UTC
Comments

It’s also been noted that a Red Sox win in the World Series in an election year predicts a Democratic victory, since it worked for Woodrow Wilson.

Posted by bad Jim · November 2, 2004 06:43 AM

So now the question is: would you rank Ray Fair’s model, re-weighted coefficients and all, above or below the Redskins?

Posted by foo · November 2, 2004 11:57 AM

As a data point:

The Redskins model has been perfect; Fair’s gets adjusted, sometimes significantly, every time it is wrong (read: every four years).

Posted by Ken Houghton · November 2, 2004 02:46 PM
Followups

This discussion has been closed. Thanks to everyone who contributed.