After a week or so of largely phoney campaigning1 and a pause following the Jakarta bomb atrocity, the Australian election campaign kicked off in earnest on Sunday night with a debate between Liberal (=conservative) PM John Howard and Labor Opposition Leader Mark Latham. The conventional wisdom was that the bomb attack had just about finished Labor’s chances and that Latham’s only chance was to avoid the issue and stick to Labor’s strong suits, health and education.
Instead, Latham pushed a strong line against Australian involvement in the Iraq war, arguing that it had diverted resources and attention from the real dangers in our own region. Howard had been undermined earlier in the day by his own deputy, John Anderson, who conceded the fairly obvious fact that our involvement in the Iraq war might have increased, rather than reduced, the risk of terrorist attacks on Australia.
But Howard also gave a lot of ground. Although he briefly pushed the line that opposition to the war implied support for Saddam, most of the time he implicitly conceded that opponents of the war had been right after all, arguing that even if you opposed the war, it was now necessary to “see it through” rather than “cut and run”. With the latest awful news from both Iraq and Indonesia, however, it’s increasingly unclear what good can be done by keeping Australian troops in Iraq.
All of this is an echo of World War II, when Liberal PM Menzies sent troops to the Middle East, despite the danger posed by the Japanese. After his fall from office and a short interregnum under another conservative, he was replaced by Labor PM John Curtin , who withdrew the Australian 6th and 7th divisions of the AIF from the Middle East overriding an attempt by Churchill to divert the 7th division to the defence of Burma en route.
It remains to be seen whether the debate will affect the opinion polls, where Labor has been marginally behind on balance. Howard is generally regarded as a poor debater but a clever campaigner, and there are still four weeks to go. Still, it seems clear that the national security issue is not the easy winner for him that many pundits supposed.
1 In Australia, as in the UK, the Prime Minister has almost complete freedom in choosing the election date. But Howard delayed to the point that it was a political embarrassment to wait any longer. He called the election shortly after the end of the Olympics and then ran into a further sporting obstacle. He’d planned for a short campaign but the earliest available date coincided with football grand finals and was therefore unthinkable. That meant, in effect, that the campaign started a week or so early. The extra time was largely devoted to a series of extraordinarily vitriolic attacks on the Greens, who have been increasing their share of their vote, but are still peripheral in terms of the outcome.
Given that the publicly anounced reasons for the Australian government’s actions in Iraq and Afghanistan are questionable, it is worth asking what the real reasons might be.
Here is one hypothesis. The Australian Prime Minister lived with his parents until well into his thirties and left only to live with his wife, who is tremendously powerful albeit behind the scenes. This is the classic “Mummy’s Boy”. Characteristic of a “Mummy’s Boy” is an unconscious need to attach himself to, and follow, a more powerful male. Along came Bush.
Pop psychology? Maybe. Do Howard’s personal inadequacies shape Australia’s national security strategy? Maybe.
The problem with this thesis is that Australia only has 800 military personnle in the area - so its pushjing it a bit to say its diverting a large proportion of rescources that could be better used elsewhere (like where?).
The other point is the obivous one that if Australia chooses to only think of its self, it cant expect others to help it. And does it think it could cope with, say an invasion of Christmas Island on its own?
We don’t buy support by bleeding for our allies. They would bleed for us only if they perceive it to be of geopolitical value. As we do - sacrificing our army to make Daddy like us.
The contrary does work however. We can make the nations of our own region dislike us. What happened when we announced the cruise missile purchase? How do you think the Iraq thing plays in the Indonesian cabinet?
We may well accept that we antagonise our neighbours, as we did over East Timor. But let’s do it for good reason.
“We don’t buy support by bleeding for our allies.”
How is Australia bleeding for its allies? - they’ve suffered a pretty much zero casualty rate for which they’ve bought the favor of alot of allies and an FTA.
And its of geoppolitical interest for anyone to defend an ally since that is how alliances are formed.
As for asking the question “how doe this play in Jakarta” it migh be worth asking what interest Jakarta has in Iraq that are afffected by the conflict there? None I’d say, in much the same way that you would ignore Jakarta’s views if they say, diapprived of a cricket tour to India.
We’ve been using the rhetoric of sacrifice at least since Gallipoli.
And yes, treaties are important, but mostly because they codify a group of mutual interests. Can you imagine the US going to war over (to use your example) Christmas island, solely because we are linked by Anzus?
It is fair to say that the war in Iraq has pissed off the entire Arab world. It is a pretty big cricket tour. You can’t seriously argue that the Indonesians don’t take our support for the war in Iraq into account.
And we bought the FTA by fighting in Iraq? Some privilege.
Giles, we may not have suffered any troop casualties in Iraq, but we may suffer more attacks such as the recent one in Jakarta and Bali in 2002.
And we suffer the indignity of being part of coalition of occupying powers in a country descending into civil war. As British Army Colonel Tim Collins (quoted here) has said: “There was very little preparation or thought given to what would follow on from the invasion.”
The question is whether or not we are helping or hindering by maintaining our presence. On the basis of Abu Ghraib, I can’t see how we are helping. And on the basis of recent events, we appear to be harming our own interests.
“its of geoppolitical [sic] interest for anyone to defend an ally since that is how alliances are formed”
Sorry, who are we ‘defending’ by invading Iraq? And I am certain that the alliance with the US is founded on more than our membership of the coalition of the willing. Think of Pine Gap and uranium reserves to state the most obvious examples.
Meanwhile, in the words of Robert Manne, Australia’s actions have ‘reinforced throughout South-East Asia the most unhelpful portrait possible of Australia, as an anti-Muslim Western outpost acting as proxy for American power’.
If you want more on that particular cricket match, try this story.
You question Jakarta’s interest in Iraq, which is absurd. Aside from the fact that conflict in the Middle East affects the entire planet in some way, I will give you a hint: Indonesia is the most populous Muslim nation in the world.
À Gauche
Jeremy Alder
Amaravati
Anggarrgoon
Audhumlan Conspiracy
H.E. Baber
Philip Blosser
Paul Broderick
Matt Brown
Diana Buccafurni
Brandon Butler
Keith Burgess-Jackson
Certain Doubts
David Chalmers
Noam Chomsky
The Conservative Philosopher
Desert Landscapes
Denis Dutton
David Efird
Karl Elliott
David Estlund
Experimental Philosophy
Fake Barn County
Kai von Fintel
Russell Arben Fox
Garden of Forking Paths
Roger Gathman
Michael Green
Scott Hagaman
Helen Habermann
David Hildebrand
John Holbo
Christopher Grau
Jonathan Ichikawa
Tom Irish
Michelle Jenkins
Adam Kotsko
Barry Lam
Language Hat
Language Log
Christian Lee
Brian Leiter
Stephen Lenhart
Clayton Littlejohn
Roderick T. Long
Joshua Macy
Mad Grad
Jonathan Martin
Matthew McGrattan
Marc Moffett
Geoffrey Nunberg
Orange Philosophy
Philosophy Carnival
Philosophy, et cetera
Philosophy of Art
Douglas Portmore
Philosophy from the 617 (moribund)
Jeremy Pierce
Punishment Theory
Geoff Pynn
Timothy Quigley (moribund?)
Conor Roddy
Sappho's Breathing
Anders Schoubye
Wolfgang Schwartz
Scribo
Michael Sevel
Tom Stoneham (moribund)
Adam Swenson
Peter Suber
Eddie Thomas
Joe Ulatowski
Bruce Umbaugh
What is the name ...
Matt Weiner
Will Wilkinson
Jessica Wilson
Young Hegelian
Richard Zach
Psychology
Donyell Coleman
Deborah Frisch
Milt Rosenberg
Tom Stafford
Law
Ann Althouse
Stephen Bainbridge
Jack Balkin
Douglass A. Berman
Francesca Bignami
BlunkettWatch
Jack Bogdanski
Paul L. Caron
Conglomerate
Jeff Cooper
Disability Law
Displacement of Concepts
Wayne Eastman
Eric Fink
Victor Fleischer (on hiatus)
Peter Friedman
Michael Froomkin
Bernard Hibbitts
Walter Hutchens
InstaPundit
Andis Kaulins
Lawmeme
Edward Lee
Karl-Friedrich Lenz
Larry Lessig
Mirror of Justice
Eric Muller
Nathan Oman
Opinio Juris
John Palfrey
Ken Parish
Punishment Theory
Larry Ribstein
The Right Coast
D. Gordon Smith
Lawrence Solum
Peter Tillers
Transatlantic Assembly
Lawrence Velvel
David Wagner
Kim Weatherall
Yale Constitution Society
Tun Yin
History
Blogenspiel
Timothy Burke
Rebunk
Naomi Chana
Chapati Mystery
Cliopatria
Juan Cole
Cranky Professor
Greg Daly
James Davila
Sherman Dorn
Michael Drout
Frog in a Well
Frogs and Ravens
Early Modern Notes
Evan Garcia
George Mason History bloggers
Ghost in the Machine
Rebecca Goetz
Invisible Adjunct (inactive)
Jason Kuznicki
Konrad Mitchell Lawson
Danny Loss
Liberty and Power
Danny Loss
Ether MacAllum Stewart
Pam Mack
Heather Mathews
James Meadway
Medieval Studies
H.D. Miller
Caleb McDaniel
Marc Mulholland
Received Ideas
Renaissance Weblog
Nathaniel Robinson
Jacob Remes (moribund?)
Christopher Sheil
Red Ted
Time Travelling Is Easy
Brian Ulrich
Shana Worthen
Computers/media/communication
Lauren Andreacchi (moribund)
Eric Behrens
Joseph Bosco
Danah Boyd
David Brake
Collin Brooke
Maximilian Dornseif (moribund)
Jeff Erickson
Ed Felten
Lance Fortnow
Louise Ferguson
Anne Galloway
Jason Gallo
Josh Greenberg
Alex Halavais
Sariel Har-Peled
Tracy Kennedy
Tim Lambert
Liz Lawley
Michael O'Foghlu
Jose Luis Orihuela (moribund)
Alex Pang
Sebastian Paquet
Fernando Pereira
Pink Bunny of Battle
Ranting Professors
Jay Rosen
Ken Rufo
Douglas Rushkoff
Vika Safrin
Rob Schaap (Blogorrhoea)
Frank Schaap
Robert A. Stewart
Suresh Venkatasubramanian
Ray Trygstad
Jill Walker
Phil Windley
Siva Vaidahyanathan
Anthropology
Kerim Friedman
Alex Golub
Martijn de Koning
Nicholas Packwood
Geography
Stentor Danielson
Benjamin Heumann
Scott Whitlock
Education
Edward Bilodeau
Jenny D.
Richard Kahn
Progressive Teachers
Kelvin Thompson (defunct?)
Mark Byron
Business administration
Michael Watkins (moribund)
Literature, language, culture
Mike Arnzen
Brandon Barr
Michael Berube
The Blogora
Colin Brayton
John Bruce
Miriam Burstein
Chris Cagle
Jean Chu
Hans Coppens
Tyler Curtain
Cultural Revolution
Terry Dean
Joseph Duemer
Flaschenpost
Kathleen Fitzpatrick
Jonathan Goodwin
Rachael Groner
Alison Hale
Household Opera
Dennis Jerz
Jason Jones
Miriam Jones
Matthew Kirschenbaum
Steven Krause
Lilliputian Lilith
Catherine Liu
John Lovas
Gerald Lucas
Making Contact
Barry Mauer
Erin O'Connor
Print Culture
Clancy Ratcliff
Matthias Rip
A.G. Rud
Amardeep Singh
Steve Shaviro
Thanks ... Zombie
Vera Tobin
Chuck Tryon
University Diaries
Classics
Michael Hendry
David Meadows
Religion
AKM Adam
Ryan Overbey
Telford Work (moribund)
Library Science
Norma Bruce
Music
Kyle Gann
ionarts
Tim Rutherford-Johnson
Greg Sandow
Scott Spiegelberg
Biology/Medicine
Pradeep Atluri
Bloviator
Anthony Cox
Susan Ferrari (moribund)
Amy Greenwood
La Di Da
John M. Lynch
Charles Murtaugh (moribund)
Paul Z. Myers
Respectful of Otters
Josh Rosenau
Universal Acid
Amity Wilczek (moribund)
Theodore Wong (moribund)
Physics/Applied Physics
Trish Amuntrud
Sean Carroll
Jacques Distler
Stephen Hsu
Irascible Professor
Andrew Jaffe
Michael Nielsen
Chad Orzel
String Coffee Table
Math/Statistics
Dead Parrots
Andrew Gelman
Christopher Genovese
Moment, Linger on
Jason Rosenhouse
Vlorbik
Peter Woit
Complex Systems
Petter Holme
Luis Rocha
Cosma Shalizi
Bill Tozier
Chemistry
"Keneth Miles"
Engineering
Zack Amjal
Chris Hall
University Administration
Frank Admissions (moribund?)
Architecture/Urban development
City Comforts (urban planning)
Unfolio
Panchromatica
Earth Sciences
Our Take
Who Knows?
Bitch Ph.D.
Just Tenured
Playing School
Professor Goose
This Academic Life
Other sources of information
Arts and Letters Daily
Boston Review
Imprints
Political Theory Daily Review
Science and Technology Daily Review