I’ve been heavily involved in work production related activities, but I should point to Daniel Drezner, who is blogging about a potentially huge story.
The Bush administration, deeply concerned about recent assassination attempts against Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf and a resurgence of Taliban forces in neighboring Afghanistan, is preparing a U.S. military offensive that would reach inside Pakistan with the goal of destroying Osama bin Laden’s Al Qaeda network, military sources said.U.S. Central Command is assembling a team of military intelligence officers that would be posted in Pakistan ahead of the operation, according to sources familiar with details of the plan and internal military communications. The sources spoke on the condition they not be identified.
Drezner says,
I’d offer some cogent analysis at this point, but I’m torn between two diametrically opposed viewpoints:1) It’s about friggin’ time. If the biggest cluster of high-level Al Qaeda operatives are in the mountains of Pakistan, that’s where U.S. forces hands-down should be.2) Musharraf clearly feels more secure in his domestic situation than the Western media.
I agree with Drezner’s read, I think. It’s surely one to watch. This story came from the Chicago Tribune. The NY Times and Washington Post have a much-discussed tendency to bury stories on which other papers scoop them. Let’s hope that this isn’t the case here.
Well, going after Al Qaeda in Pakistan sounds good, but I sure hope that Musharraf has full control of the nukes. Also, many of the Al Qaeda people are living openly in the big cities of Pakistan, which makes me wonder how much control Musharraf actually has.
Bush, in this election year, has only one more piece of good news to squeeze out re foreign policy. That is the capture or death of Osama. Iraq looks like a country into which 200 billion dollars was invested in order to create a moderate version of Iran — not exactly an advertisement for the war on terrorism. As for that vaunted war, so far, the pattern looks pretty much like the pattern after the attempt on the WTC the first time — there’s a response, there’s a gestation period, and there are renewed attacks. The idea, which has seeped into the American media, that we have crushed the Islamicist terrorist network, is contradicted by the ease with which attacks have been launched all around the Meditteranean.
If the economy really does remain in the doldrums after the various speedballs of government money Bush has been pumping into its veins, then what else is there?
Any idiot — and especially Rove — would look at the poll figures right after Saddam H. was captured and think, wow, if we could do that in October…
Bush’s own October surprise.
Very good analysis of the assasination attempt on Musharraf and the stability of the current military regime in Pakistan here by Zack Ajmal:
http://www.zackvision.com/weblog/archives/entry/000598.html
Spellbound was an excellent feel-good documentary but Capturing the Friedmans was the Americam Rashomon.
So why haven’t you replaced rittenhouse with wonkette in the lumber room?
“Bush, in this election year, has only one more piece of good news to squeeze out re foreign policy.”
So you’re saying it would be news if, say, Bashar Assad and the Israeli government were able to achieve a peace treaty and Syria gave up all support for Hezbollah and Palestinian terror or pulled out of Lebannon? Or if the reformers in Iran were able to achieve a power flip over the Guardian Council and come into real power? Or a successful deal were made with North Korea for a permanent inspection regime and dismantling of their nuclear program? Or if Kim Jong Il had a sudden heart attack and the North Korean government collapsed and the country opened up? Or if France and Russia agreed to send significant military force to Iraq? Or if other Muslim countries were to agree with the same thing, while a successful Iraqi federal government were formed, the fighting drew down to insignificance, and the country clearly emerged as on its way to propsperity and democracy? Or if Pakistan and India reached a full settlement over Kashmir and agreed to mutual nuclear disarmament, with US negotatiors key? Or if Arafat died and Israel and the new Palestinian government agreed on a peace settlement? Or if…?
Y’know, I don’t expect a single one of those scenarios to happen. They’re each extremely unlikely. Finding a live bin Laden isn’t the highest probability scenario in the world, either.
But none is outright impossible, and I rather think they’re just a few of the possible triumphs that, hypothetically, could happen. Which makes your statement, um, non-operative.
Sigh.
“So you’re saying it would be news….”
That makes more sense if you read my original: “So you’re saying it would be bad news….”
That’s the version before the Evil ASCII-Thief Demons came in and stole my word!
I hate those demons! Hate’m!
That’s my story, and I’m sticking to it.
Gary, operative word is “squeeze.” There is always a chance that Syria and Israel will make peace (and that pigs will fly). However, I doubt that any of the scenarios you are talking about will shine off W. Libya’s surrender of its WMD capacity has made about zip difference in the polls. Saddam’s death, on the other hand, made about a 10 point difference. That doesn’t mean that W. might operate with unexpected genius, getting N.Korea to the negotiating table — but that would be very unexpected unexpected genius.
Out of the list that you mentioned, the cheapest and most do-able, and the one with the biggest resonance nationally, would be hunting down Osama. You can test this by going into a bar and mentioning that Osama has been killed by a U.S. Special commando team. Then mention that Kim Jong-il has been killed by a special commando team. Count the number of people who ask you what a special commando team is doing shooting at Li’l Kim, the number who want to know what the owner of a Chinese restaurant did to piss off the special forces, and the number who say, who the hell is Kimmy Jung? Compare to number who recognize Osama. Apply said differential to possible poll bump.
“However, I doubt that any of the scenarios you are talking about will shine off W.”
Of course, they would not, unless the US were indeed intrinsically responsible, somehow, such as being the key figure in negotatiating any of those hypothetical peaces or settlements or whatever. And, as I said, all are extraordinarily unlike.
But while I agree that the most visceral jump for Bush would come with Osama captured or provably killed at our hands — no doubt about it — I don’t agree that Bush wouldn’t get some electoral benefit if, hypothetically, Colin Powell somehow suddenly, miraculously, negotiated a treaty between Israel and Palestine which, dramatically, suddenly saw the disarming of Hamas and the cessation of terror as the new Palestinian state were declared. Just to pick one example.
I stress again: this is pretty much impossible in the time remaining before the election. I’m just quibbling hypothetically. I’m afraid I do that. :-)
Trivial note is that in reality, the greater long-term benefit to our lives, I suspect, would come from an Israeli-Palestinian true settlement, or a true Pakistan-Indian nuclear disarmament, or a collapse of the North Korean regime and establishment of a sane one, than getting the (hypothetically still alive) bin Laden.
À Gauche
Jeremy Alder
Amaravati
Anggarrgoon
Audhumlan Conspiracy
H.E. Baber
Philip Blosser
Paul Broderick
Matt Brown
Diana Buccafurni
Brandon Butler
Keith Burgess-Jackson
Certain Doubts
David Chalmers
Noam Chomsky
The Conservative Philosopher
Desert Landscapes
Denis Dutton
David Efird
Karl Elliott
David Estlund
Experimental Philosophy
Fake Barn County
Kai von Fintel
Russell Arben Fox
Garden of Forking Paths
Roger Gathman
Michael Green
Scott Hagaman
Helen Habermann
David Hildebrand
John Holbo
Christopher Grau
Jonathan Ichikawa
Tom Irish
Michelle Jenkins
Adam Kotsko
Barry Lam
Language Hat
Language Log
Christian Lee
Brian Leiter
Stephen Lenhart
Clayton Littlejohn
Roderick T. Long
Joshua Macy
Mad Grad
Jonathan Martin
Matthew McGrattan
Marc Moffett
Geoffrey Nunberg
Orange Philosophy
Philosophy Carnival
Philosophy, et cetera
Philosophy of Art
Douglas Portmore
Philosophy from the 617 (moribund)
Jeremy Pierce
Punishment Theory
Geoff Pynn
Timothy Quigley (moribund?)
Conor Roddy
Sappho's Breathing
Anders Schoubye
Wolfgang Schwartz
Scribo
Michael Sevel
Tom Stoneham (moribund)
Adam Swenson
Peter Suber
Eddie Thomas
Joe Ulatowski
Bruce Umbaugh
What is the name ...
Matt Weiner
Will Wilkinson
Jessica Wilson
Young Hegelian
Richard Zach
Psychology
Donyell Coleman
Deborah Frisch
Milt Rosenberg
Tom Stafford
Law
Ann Althouse
Stephen Bainbridge
Jack Balkin
Douglass A. Berman
Francesca Bignami
BlunkettWatch
Jack Bogdanski
Paul L. Caron
Conglomerate
Jeff Cooper
Disability Law
Displacement of Concepts
Wayne Eastman
Eric Fink
Victor Fleischer (on hiatus)
Peter Friedman
Michael Froomkin
Bernard Hibbitts
Walter Hutchens
InstaPundit
Andis Kaulins
Lawmeme
Edward Lee
Karl-Friedrich Lenz
Larry Lessig
Mirror of Justice
Eric Muller
Nathan Oman
Opinio Juris
John Palfrey
Ken Parish
Punishment Theory
Larry Ribstein
The Right Coast
D. Gordon Smith
Lawrence Solum
Peter Tillers
Transatlantic Assembly
Lawrence Velvel
David Wagner
Kim Weatherall
Yale Constitution Society
Tun Yin
History
Blogenspiel
Timothy Burke
Rebunk
Naomi Chana
Chapati Mystery
Cliopatria
Juan Cole
Cranky Professor
Greg Daly
James Davila
Sherman Dorn
Michael Drout
Frog in a Well
Frogs and Ravens
Early Modern Notes
Evan Garcia
George Mason History bloggers
Ghost in the Machine
Rebecca Goetz
Invisible Adjunct (inactive)
Jason Kuznicki
Konrad Mitchell Lawson
Danny Loss
Liberty and Power
Danny Loss
Ether MacAllum Stewart
Pam Mack
Heather Mathews
James Meadway
Medieval Studies
H.D. Miller
Caleb McDaniel
Marc Mulholland
Received Ideas
Renaissance Weblog
Nathaniel Robinson
Jacob Remes (moribund?)
Christopher Sheil
Red Ted
Time Travelling Is Easy
Brian Ulrich
Shana Worthen
Computers/media/communication
Lauren Andreacchi (moribund)
Eric Behrens
Joseph Bosco
Danah Boyd
David Brake
Collin Brooke
Maximilian Dornseif (moribund)
Jeff Erickson
Ed Felten
Lance Fortnow
Louise Ferguson
Anne Galloway
Jason Gallo
Josh Greenberg
Alex Halavais
Sariel Har-Peled
Tracy Kennedy
Tim Lambert
Liz Lawley
Michael O'Foghlu
Jose Luis Orihuela (moribund)
Alex Pang
Sebastian Paquet
Fernando Pereira
Pink Bunny of Battle
Ranting Professors
Jay Rosen
Ken Rufo
Douglas Rushkoff
Vika Safrin
Rob Schaap (Blogorrhoea)
Frank Schaap
Robert A. Stewart
Suresh Venkatasubramanian
Ray Trygstad
Jill Walker
Phil Windley
Siva Vaidahyanathan
Anthropology
Kerim Friedman
Alex Golub
Martijn de Koning
Nicholas Packwood
Geography
Stentor Danielson
Benjamin Heumann
Scott Whitlock
Education
Edward Bilodeau
Jenny D.
Richard Kahn
Progressive Teachers
Kelvin Thompson (defunct?)
Mark Byron
Business administration
Michael Watkins (moribund)
Literature, language, culture
Mike Arnzen
Brandon Barr
Michael Berube
The Blogora
Colin Brayton
John Bruce
Miriam Burstein
Chris Cagle
Jean Chu
Hans Coppens
Tyler Curtain
Cultural Revolution
Terry Dean
Joseph Duemer
Flaschenpost
Kathleen Fitzpatrick
Jonathan Goodwin
Rachael Groner
Alison Hale
Household Opera
Dennis Jerz
Jason Jones
Miriam Jones
Matthew Kirschenbaum
Steven Krause
Lilliputian Lilith
Catherine Liu
John Lovas
Gerald Lucas
Making Contact
Barry Mauer
Erin O'Connor
Print Culture
Clancy Ratcliff
Matthias Rip
A.G. Rud
Amardeep Singh
Steve Shaviro
Thanks ... Zombie
Vera Tobin
Chuck Tryon
University Diaries
Classics
Michael Hendry
David Meadows
Religion
AKM Adam
Ryan Overbey
Telford Work (moribund)
Library Science
Norma Bruce
Music
Kyle Gann
ionarts
Tim Rutherford-Johnson
Greg Sandow
Scott Spiegelberg
Biology/Medicine
Pradeep Atluri
Bloviator
Anthony Cox
Susan Ferrari (moribund)
Amy Greenwood
La Di Da
John M. Lynch
Charles Murtaugh (moribund)
Paul Z. Myers
Respectful of Otters
Josh Rosenau
Universal Acid
Amity Wilczek (moribund)
Theodore Wong (moribund)
Physics/Applied Physics
Trish Amuntrud
Sean Carroll
Jacques Distler
Stephen Hsu
Irascible Professor
Andrew Jaffe
Michael Nielsen
Chad Orzel
String Coffee Table
Math/Statistics
Dead Parrots
Andrew Gelman
Christopher Genovese
Moment, Linger on
Jason Rosenhouse
Vlorbik
Peter Woit
Complex Systems
Petter Holme
Luis Rocha
Cosma Shalizi
Bill Tozier
Chemistry
"Keneth Miles"
Engineering
Zack Amjal
Chris Hall
University Administration
Frank Admissions (moribund?)
Architecture/Urban development
City Comforts (urban planning)
Unfolio
Panchromatica
Earth Sciences
Our Take
Who Knows?
Bitch Ph.D.
Just Tenured
Playing School
Professor Goose
This Academic Life
Other sources of information
Arts and Letters Daily
Boston Review
Imprints
Political Theory Daily Review
Science and Technology Daily Review