January 20, 2005

Iraq: why not vote on withdrawal ?

Posted by John Quiggin

The latest terrorist bombings in Iraq came closer than usual to home for Australia, with two soldiers suffering (reportedly) minor injuries in an attack on the Australian embassy1, while 20 more Iraqis were killed, adding to the tens of thousands already killed by both/all sides in this terrible war, which seems to get more brutal and criminal every day.

It’s pretty clear by now that Iraq is approaching full-scale civil war and that, as is usually the case in civil wars, the presence of foreign troops is only making things worse. But rather than arguing about this last point, it might be better to put it to the test. This NYT Op-ed piece by three researchers from the Center for Strategic and International Studies suggests a referendum on US withdrawal to be held soon after the forthcoming elections. They make a pretty good case that it would be hard for the Baathists to justify disrupting such a referendum, though no doubt some would do so anyway. At least, this would be true if the main Shiite parties adhered to their previously stated position of favoring withdrawal.

I expect such a referendum would lead to a majority vote for withdrawal. But a majority the other way would probably be an improvement on the current situation. The only really bad outcome would be the case where the Kurds voted solidly for keeping US/UK troops, reversing a majority vote the other way among Arab Iraqis.

Of course, withdrawal of troops wouldn’t produce instant peace. But I can’t see any better alternative. If military force, ruthlessly applied, was going to work, the levelling of Fallujah and the expulsion of the population ought to have done the trick. On the other side, I think the resistance would lose their main recruiting tool if the Americans were gone.

1 Despite this event, Australia has suffered far less direct loss in Iraq than many nations who were far less deeply involved in the decision to start the war.

Posted on January 20, 2005 12:52 AM UTC
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