I don’t have much to say about this, but I couldn’t resist the multiple absurdities embodied in the title. For those who haven’t heard anything about this, two appointed members of the House of Lords (Warner and Grabiner) have announced that they will no longer follow the direction of the Labour Party on how to vote, and a third (Mandelson) has made noises suggesting he may go the same way. This is a result of the party’s leadership election, in which the members a (nominally, at least) democratic socialist party chose a (nominally at least) democratic socialist leader.
For those who are a little closer to the action, this is your chance to comment or speculate on the implications.
{ 155 comments }
Sancho 10.27.15 at 4:12 am
A link missing?
The Raven 10.27.15 at 4:15 am
We do not welcome our new socialist overlords.
Tabasco 10.27.15 at 4:25 am
Labour Lords Resign the Whip
I thought it was the Tories who were more into that sort of thing, what with their Eton background and so on.
The Temporary Name 10.27.15 at 5:16 am
They’re too chicken to cross the floor? To the Lib-Dems? Man, that’s some kind of squishiness there.
Or laziness.
marek 10.27.15 at 8:01 am
Implications? Essentially none. Mandelson would create a slightly larger stir, but neither Warner nor Grabiner has any significant roots in the Labour party. Grabiner isn’t a politician in any normal sense at all and Warner is a technocrat. Neither has ever held elective office.
So the only real significance would be if this were the first sign of a much bigger trend, with MPs resigning the whip as well as peers. Even a few MPs is probably manageable: things only get really difficult for Corbyn if it starts looking as though we are back in 1981 with the SDP about to break away.
None of which means that Warner and Grabiner are wrong to think that Corbyn can’t win an election, just that their opinions don’t matter very much.
nickj 10.27.15 at 9:01 am
meh, essentially.
warner was part of the nu lab push to privatise the NHS so no real surprise. only ever heard of grabiner as a QC.
in general one has to wonder at labour people running round like headless chickens squawking that labour is unelectable. the rational choice would be to stfu, promote their own policies and stab corbyn in the back rather than the front. this is perhaps mandelson’s game.
however, they haven’t got any policies except anyone but corbyn and they couldn’t quite agree on that. the shrieking seems to be a result of them being excluded from Krugman’s very serious people, or perhaps an attempt to remain within their ranks, with a view to getting a seat on the board somewhere.
have to agree that corbyn may be unelectable, but if he’s still there at the next election and still radical I’ll vote labour for the first time in decades, as will others.
PKO 10.27.15 at 9:33 am
In the short term I suspect that these declarations are net positive to the new direction the labour party is trying to take. At least that seems to be the verdict of those others I know who joined in response to Corbyn’s win.
Mandelson may be seen by many as a major ‘scalp’ rather than a negative, generating a stronger sense of change and increasing Momentum.
I agree with Nick, election victory in 2020 is highly unlikely – this needs to be a longer play – but many will vote for labour as a result of this change including many who would not have voted at all. And if the economy turns sour….
Val 10.27.15 at 12:02 pm
That title is hilarious. Perhaps one has to be not-English to fully appreciate the humour.
Robin 10.27.15 at 12:17 pm
What the Labour Parliamentarians seem to be having a hard time understanding is that—certainly by the measure of the recent leadership election results—most of the non-Parliamentary Labour Party either think very little of them or even very actively dislike them. If there’s any part of the Party that is unelectable it would seem to be them. They have become, if you like, “Old New Labour,†and they are now experiencing what it is to be dismissed in the way that they dismissed “Old Labour†when they were so proudly and brutally “New Labour.†Time and events have now passed them by. They are, it seems, simply out of touch with everyone but themselves and those now fading “opinion makers†upon whom they relied to manage public opinion. Should they even want to be returned to Parliament at the next General Election, maybe they should first have a long quiet think about how to ingratiate themselves with those they, many of them, are presently bad mouthing. This is not to say that they should just roll over and play dead. But should they want to continue to play a significant role in British politics, surely they should try to figure out why the style and content of their politics has become so toxic—they are the ones, after all, who did lose the last two General Elections. Alternatively, like those two not-so-noble lords mentioned above, they should recognise that hardly anyone is now willing to buy their sort of politics, and they should retire to spend more time with their families or to pursue other opportunities or whatever the current fashionable excuse is for withdrawing from the public arena. But my guess is that they, most of them, think too well of themselves to follow either of these two paths, and that they’d rather do everything they can to destroy what they cannot control. I suppose that means they fail to meet Weber’s strictures respecting the role of vanity in politics.
Chris Bertram 10.27.15 at 1:19 pm
We’re at an odd juncture. The complaint against Corbyn is that a Labour Party led by him cannot win a general election. That’s probably true, but it lacks force unless a Labour Party led by somebody else could do so, which I doubt. If nobody can win, then Corbyn at least has the merit of actually opposing Tory policies on “welfare”, immigration and the like, and that’s paying some limited dividends, such as the defeat of Osborne’s cuts to tax credits by the Lords (I’m assuming that New Labour, placing great value on being respectable to “aspirational Britain”, would have caved on that one.) Insofar as these “semi-defectors” have policy views, they seem to be “austerity lite”, which is pretty hopeless.
Peter K. 10.27.15 at 1:34 pm
@10
Your summation sounds reasonable to me. In America we’re facing a slightly different situation. Hillary Clinton supporters argue she can beat the Republicans in an election while Bernie Sanders can not. This may be true, but what if in the long run her policies are no better than “austerity lite” which are hopeless.
What Sanders has besides realistic policies is an ability to increase voter turnout and create excitement and passion. Democrats need this to win back the House, Senate and win down ballot elections.
Sanders is pointing out that you need more than a President to fight the establishment power structure and change things. You need a revolution in political activity and participation. Maybe Corbyn and a more realistic Labour party can help increase voter turnout. I understood that’s what they did to help elect Corbyn.
Bartleby the Commenter 10.27.15 at 2:00 pm
I could point out that all these Centrists told us we had to support their candidate as the lesser of two evils should now shut up and support Corybn for the same reason else be exposed as hypocrites.
But I would prefer not to.
chris y 10.27.15 at 2:57 pm
That’s probably true, but it lacks force unless a Labour Party led by somebody else could do so, which I doubt.
Yes to this point. To the limited extent that a Corbyn led party stands any chance of winning in 2020, it’s by continuing to mobilise the previously non-voting people who were interested in his leadership campaign. To the limited extend that a NuLab led party stands any such chance, it’s by reassuring a small number of politically conscious centrists who would otherwise be so busy holding their handkerchiefs in front of their noses to ward of the stench of the other group that they wouldn’t even turn out. Guess which would be the larger number in reality.
It’s quite possible that the Blairites would in fact prefer to lose while in charge. They would blame their loss on the fact that turnout would be around 50%, but their experience with Corbyn might just lead them to realise that the people who don’t vote would never vote for them: they might vote for Corbyn, they might vote UKIP or whatever form the populist right takes by then, they might vote SNP, but they have had it with neoliberalism in any form. It’s clear however that for those who still adhere to it neoliberalism has become a faith based ideology, more important than merely winning elections.
harry b 10.27.15 at 3:10 pm
There’s also the cancellation of the prisons contract with a terror regime in the Middle East, which Corbyn almost certainly caused: it’s hard to imagine any of the other erstwhile potential leaders using a speech to combat British support of state-sponsored terror.
The difference between the Lords and the MPs is that the MPs have careers to protect. This makes their calculations complicated. My guess is that some of them think that they can cause total chaos, depose Corbyn, and get a new leader in time to stabilize things by the next election. Given that, one of Corbyn’s main jobs right now should be to position a couple of other people in his team to succeed him, because the membership will vote for a plausible left-winger if he gets taken down. If he does that, taking him down is pointless. And, if the turmoil continues into year 3 the MPs who want to undermine him may be even worse off than if they had cooperated, because many of them will be more likely to lose their seats than under a unified left-of-center party.
People like Bradshaw, Hunt, etc (but not Kendall, actually) sound like very angry ambitious men who have suddenly discovered that they spent years toadying to the wrong people. They’re in the wrong profession.
Roger Gathman 10.27.15 at 3:46 pm
Kendall has earned my respect not for her views, but for her good humour about losing. Too bad that good humour is in such short supply on the right in the Labour Party. I have been laughing about New Statesman’s coverage of Corbyn. New Statesman would like to catch up with the zeitgeist and abandon New Labour, but it just can’t. The hit piece on Communist/stalinist Seaumus Milne, who was named Corbyn’s press spokesman, was a wondrous piece of trip, which rhetorically captured perfectly the concern trolling that is the new fashion among erstwhile left leaning publications like the NS and the Guardian. The article begins and ends like Elmer Fudd: I weely weely want to suppowt Cowbyn, I weely weely do, except that he’s a communist, Putin supporting degenerate. http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/media/2015/10/i-wanted-believe-jeremy-corbyn-i-cant-believe-seumas-milne
Tom Hurka 10.27.15 at 5:14 pm
The claim that Labour under a centrist leader probably wouldn’t win in 2020 seems to assume that five years is a short time in politics.
Layman 10.27.15 at 5:26 pm
The claim that Labour under Corbyn probably wouldn’t win in 2020 seems equally to assume that 5 years is a short time in politics.
steven johnson 10.27.15 at 6:27 pm
Re New Statesman and the highly credentialed Oliver Bullough: He wrote the USSR “invaded without provocation half a dozen countries.” Doesn’t the larger and better part of CT agree? And in view of these incontestable facts isn’t NS and Bullough entirely correct in their positions? Which asks the question why the rest of CT supports a Corbyn who would place such a renegade in high position?
Jason Weidner 10.27.15 at 6:50 pm
For someone like me who is not from the UK and doesn’t live there, can anybody explain the “probably unelectable” aspect of Corbyn? Because from a distance he seems quite reasonable, well spoken, etc. Are his ideas too radical for mainstream Britons, or his appearance too far out of the mainstream image of a national leader? In the case of Bernie Sanders in the US, I’m afraid that it is both of those things. However, I will vote for him in the primary because it would be a huge achievement to have a true leftist candidate of the Democratic party.
The Temporary Name 10.27.15 at 6:54 pm
Does agreeing with Oliver whatsit about a thing require you to believe all things Oliver whatsit says?
Roger Gathman 10.27.15 at 7:16 pm
18 – of course, the USSR invaded members of the Warsaw Pact. But it is very hard for me to see how this is very relevant to either the Ukraine or the modern era, which has been characterized by the US invading half a dozen countries and bombing what, Yemen, Afghanistan, Syria, Iraq, and Pakistan in merely the last five years. As for his high credentials – Oliver Bullough speaks Russian and has reported on Russia. Those are his credentials. He has a view of Russia that certainly represents the neo-con consensus. This is fine, except that the NS likes to represent itself as a lefty magazine. In fact, the magazine has attacked Corbyn from the beginning up until now, and was obviously much more comfortable with the Blairite Andrew Burnham, who the editorial board endorsed.
As for Milne’s qualifications, well, they are laid out in the wikipedia article here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seumas_Milne To my mind he is a much more highly qualified journalist than Bullough, and his doveish views are close to where Corbyn wants to take Labour. Anti-nuclear, dialing down NATO aggressiveness, opposing things like the Saudi invasion of Yemen (funny how terrible Putin figures so largely in Bullough’s rant, and Yemen, which is a war where the casualty rate is much higher than in Ukraine and the threat of really high casualties from the forced starvation of the country via Saudi ships just doesn’t get a note), although Milne has written about Yemen: http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/aug/12/seumas
Bullough’s article was as I said an exercise in concern trolling. He doesn’t really really want to like Corbyn. Corbyn is everything he doesn’t like, so the larmoyant rhetoric is really really pathetic. The new style of trying to hold onto the fragments of one’s leftiness when real leftiness is actually on offer is simply comic. Bullough is obviously really really longing for someone like Clegg.
steven johnson 10.27.15 at 7:20 pm
^^^When Oliver whatsit draws a logical conclusions from the agreed upon facts, yes, it does.
steven johnson 10.27.15 at 7:31 pm
Roger Gathmann@21 shows clearly that by scholarly standards Russian speaker Bullough is more qualified on Russia than Milne. CT is all about the high standards. As for Stalin’s invasion of the Warsaw Pact countries? Well, no doubt history would please CT more if he had made peace rather than embark on his career of aggression. Evidently marching on to Berlin was unforgivable. Lastly, “concern trolling” is an internet thing, which means it is not a thing at all I think.
(My answer to @20 crossed.)
Dipper 10.27.15 at 7:38 pm
@19 – everyone will have their own view, but from my perspective the big problem is a lack of combative political skills. He lacks the tactical skills to corner the government (or anyone else) on key issues. The thought of him trying to front up to any leader of stature is terrifying. Despite what everyone says, you want your representative to be able to do some dirty fighting on your behalf, and he doesn’t look like he can do the hand-to-hand fighting that modern politics requires.
The second issue is his history of dissent in the labour party means he is unlikely to be able to hold the party together in a robust way. His best chance was IMHO to accept the party is a broad church and be a leader for all the party but one chosen from the left. However, his staff and key personnel seem to have been chosen to attack other labour figures, not to attack the government. It is likely to be chaos.
There is also the view that he doesn’t want to do this job. He stood because it was his turn from the left caucus not because he has a burning desire to be leader. Some might think that a good thing but personally I don’t.
If I had to predict what the future looks like I would say success for Corbyn is to leave in two years saying he has reformed the movement, put new energy and direction into the party, but he is too old to be PM for an entire parliament and it is time for a younger person to step up. Failure is to for two years of internal strife concluding in fracture or coup. So far, unfortunately, the tea leaves seem to indicate the second outcome.
Guano 10.27.15 at 7:45 pm
#19 For someone like me who is not from the UK and doesn’t live there, can anybody explain the “probably unelectable†aspect of Corbyn?
One meaning is that the system won’t let him win.
The Temporary Name 10.27.15 at 7:45 pm
That explains everything.
Roger Gathman 10.27.15 at 8:01 pm
Steve Johnson, if Milne’s office was advisor to Corbyn on Russia, then no doubt Bullough would outclass him. On the other hand, Stephen Cohen, who holds opposite views to Bullough on Ukraine, would outrank Bullough. Or Keith Gessen.
And of course, I’m not sure what this means: “concern trolling†is an internet thing, which means it is not a thing at all I think.” I think your comment is on a thing called a “blog.” It is published on a thing called the “internet.” The internet has been here for some years. You might want to look it up. Surprisingly, if we count the invention of the modem in 1958 as the beginning of this thing called the internet, it has been around much longer than Stalin ruled the USSR. Unless, of course, you are convinced that Stalin still rules Russia, and that Stalin invaded the Ukraine and annexed it to Russia back in 1783. If you believe the latter, than you are eminently credentialed and should be writing papers with Oliver Bullough for the Legatum Institute.
Milne is more credentialed to do what he has been appointed to do than Bullough. He might be no good, one might disagree with him, but on the credentialed front, he’s young, fierce, a supporter of Corbyn, and has a national audience. Good choice on Corbyn’s part.
Fr. 10.27.15 at 8:40 pm
@19 (Jason Weidner)
I recommend reading this post by Josep Colomer, which basically says this:
If you are a Democrat voting for Bernie Sanders in the US primary, you will lose (sorry), because the primary system attracts a sufficiently large number of voters to make sure that the winning candidate is the closest one to the median voter. The same mechanism is also likely to weed out Donald Trump’s candidacy on the right.
In the UK (or in France, for that matter—I’m French), primaries attract only a very, very small fraction of the electorate. As a consequence, the likelihood of an electoral accident is higher, with parties sometimes ending up with candidates who are not popular across their entire own party, and very lowly attractive to the median voter.
Jeremy Corbyn is one of these candidates. Another example is Ségolène Royal, the French Socialist Party candidate in the 2007 presidential election. Royal has a different story, but there are several common points (cf. the large crowd of newly registered party members). Royal lost 47-53 to Sarkozy.
john c. halasz 10.27.15 at 8:59 pm
@29:
No, the Ukie cossacks pledge loyalty to the Czar after 1648, but had a fair amount of self-rule until they were finally suppressed by Catherine the Great. Much of the rest of the Ukraine was acquired during the partition of Poland and the southern coast was conquered from the Tatars and Turks by Catherine.
Bloix 10.27.15 at 9:01 pm
Seumas Milne worked for a Stalinist fringe group newspaper after college. Not just a communist paper – a paper of a faction called Straight Left that mostly attacked other communists for not being Stalinist enough. The SL faction supported the Soviet invasions of Czechoslovakia and Afghanistan and opposed feminism and environmentalism as distractions from the class struggle. They held that the Soviet Union remained in the vanguard of world revolution. This was during the period of Eurocommunism, something Milne’s faction hated and opposed.
To be a Stalinist after 1968, you had to be either deranged, stupid, or evil. Milne was young enough to have stupid as an excuse. The problem is that he’s never repudiated his early views.
If you google Milne and read what he says, you quickly form a suspicion that he’s an unreconstructed Stalinist who has learned to modulate his views for public consumption by means of comparisons and sarcasm. E.g. “If” Stalin was a murderer, then Churchill was, too. “If” Milosevic was a war criminal, then NATO leaders are, too. This is pretty transparent stuff.
As for Ukraine, Milne says that Putin’s annexation of Crimea (he calls it “absorption”) and his invasion of eastern Ukraine (he calls it “support”) are “defensive” and necessary to assure that eastern Ukraine “is not going to be swallowed up by Nato or the EU.” He defends the rebels’ “democratic demands” and praises Crimean “vote” in favor of secession.
I’m not interested in arguing with anyone who agrees with Milne, and I know that there are some around here.
I’m merely pointing out that Milne routinely has kind words for Putin and Russia and seems to have none for any UK prime minister or for the UK itself. You can’t expect people who are fervent supporters of NATO and the western alliance to follow leadership that hates “the West” and wants the UK to become some sort of non-aligned nation.
Anarcissie 10.27.15 at 9:02 pm
Fr. 10.27.15 at 8:40 pm @ 28 —
‘If you are a Democrat voting for Bernie Sanders in the US primary, you will lose (sorry), ‘
It depends what you mean by ‘win’. If Mr. Sanders is what I think he is, he will not be allowed to win; whatever must be done to stop him will be done. However, if he gathers a lot of votes, and especially if he wins a few primaries, that may frighten the Democratic Party leadership the way Occupy Wall Street did, and we will see less eagerness to destroy Social Security, Medicare, and the other remnants of the social democracy in the next few years. Since I live mostly off Social Security, voting for Mr. Sanders (if I am allowed to) would be simply good business even if he loses. In any case I would not vote for a war criminal in either the primary or the general election.
Roger Gathman 10.27.15 at 11:00 pm
33 I would call it invasion, just like I’d call the US annexation of Guam an invasion, but however it happened, it happened a long time ago. In the meantime, massive numbers of Russian speakers settled in the Ukraine, enough in fact to give the plurality to the Party of Regions before the revolution or coup that put an end to the Party of Regions. The oddity about Ukraine is that if, indeed, Crimea were given back to the Ukraine (it was given to Ukraine in the first place by that arch Stalinist, Khruschev), then again, the plurality of a democratic vote in the Ukraine would make a pro-Russian government an even bet, at the least. Thus, the parties who decry Putin and love the EU are fighting for either an ethnic purging of the Russian speakers or a democratic system in which they would surely have to compromise or even lose. The Putin side, in the meantime, has, by annexing Crimea, made it almost impossible to image the political possibility of a pro-Russian government ever being elected in Ukraine. Of such paradoxes are civil wars built.
Roger Gathman 10.27.15 at 11:24 pm
ps -however, this Ukraine discussion is drifting pretty far from the theme of the reaction of Labour’s right to Corbyn, which has been miserable. As well as the editorial policy and tone of magazines which pretended to be leftish in the past, like the New Statesman. Although it is true that, although Milne has written for the statesman, they do have a habit of hosting articles to attack him. I went back to the archives and found a juicy attack by the editor of the Mirror, Paul Routledge, whose complaint in 2001 was that Milne was the puppet of Lord Mandelson: :Oh, come on now Seumas “Shameless” Milne, Mandy’s chief representative on the paper, don’t disappoint him! Incidentally, why do they call him “Shameless”? Could it be anything to do, I wonder, with his modest workload? ”
Perhaps being Mandy’s former puppet, Milne will have a better time with the Labour Lords than we might expect.
John Quiggin 10.27.15 at 11:26 pm
Following up on Chris @10, the conservatives got the support of 25 per cent of eligible voters (37 per cent of 66 per cent who voted) last time around. Labour got 20 per cent. And, that was with a late swing to the Conservatives. Two things follow from this, I think
(i) The idea that Labour can’t win is wrong. In a voluntary voting, multiplarty FPTP system when no party has a solid base larger than 20 per cent of the electorate, just about anything can happen
(ii)The Blairite strategy is to move to the right to chase weakly attached “centrist” who voted Conservative this time. This doesn’t seem likely to succeed
(iii) Labour needs to draw votes from some combination (as of 2015), non-voters, LibeDems, and UKIP ( assuming the SNP would back a Labour minority). That’s a very disparate group, and it’s hard to say who could do that, but I’d say Corbyn is at least as promising as anyone else I’ve heard about.
Fr. 10.28.15 at 12:59 am
@32 (Anarcissie)
That’s why I wrote “loseâ€, as in: failing to get your candidate to represent the party in the election for which the primary is being organised.
There are tons of different things in your reply, but the major point seems to be that a candidate like Sanders can lose the primary and still have some long-lasting, programmatic impact on the winning candidate. If I were you, I would not place too much hope in that scenario, unless of course, Sanders decides to run as an independent after losing the primary.
@36 (John Quiggin)
Re: (iii), Corbyn must also guarantee that every Labour supporter will vote for him, which paradoxically seems to be the hardest part at that point.
Sam Tobin-Hochstadt 10.28.15 at 1:22 am
Since Ed Milliband did pretty well, against an incumbent with a growing economy, I don’t see why people think that Labour can’t win. This applies, of course, to both Corbyn and less radical possible leaders.
It seems like people want to draw strong conclusions about policy from the election, but this seems contrary to all the political science work on election results.
harry b 10.28.15 at 2:40 am
Corbyn has to have people around him that he can trust, and are competent at what they do. That pretty much completely explains his appointments. It would be WAY better if there were more people he can trust, but there aren’t. I, also, don’t like Milne, but he will be good at his job. Blair, Brown, Wilson, Callaghan, Kinnock — they all had people around them you wouldn’t touch with a barge-pole, and so would Burnham, Cooper, or Kendall if any of them were leader. Get over it.
I think what Roger meant by concern trolling is that Bullough is insincere in his claim that he really, really, wants to support Corbyn. Maybe Roger is entirely wrong about that, and if so… well, if so, Bullough needs to go to writing lab and work on voice and tone.
And — as Peter Oborne keeps pointing out, on foreign policy and national security issues Corbyn himself has been consistently 10 -20 years ahead of the foreign policy establishment. He’s been right on nearly (but only nearly) every major foreign policy issue for decades. (and Trident? Honestly, when British politicians in any party argue against getting rid of Trident they sound like they’ve been infected by some sort of Beyond the Fringe virus. I’m not saying there isn’t a case for renewing Trident, but no British politician seems to have one)
FR — that was a joke about the primary system, right? I mean, I know that the Republican establishment usually gets its man, and I expect it to this time round, and I expect Clinton to get the Dem nomination , but in congressional elections what you said was a joke. Most seats are gerrymandered to guarantee a seat to one or the other party, which means the median voter might as well piss off in the primary. Hence Boehner is too left wing to be speaker in a country in which he is far to the right of the median voter.
All that said, I don’t see this ending well. The MPs are too powerful, and too determined to do Corbyn in. His #1 priority should give the next generation opportunities and experience, so that there is a core of good people to take over when he is deposed. (What is this coup scenario? They seem determined to destroy him, but they have no credible alternative, either in policy terms or in personnel terms. And the membership that elected Corbyn will still be the membership in 2 years time).
david 10.28.15 at 4:10 am
Corbyn himself has been consistently 10 -20 years ahead of the foreign policy establishment.
Bosnia? Kosovo? Sierra Leone?
david 10.28.15 at 4:31 am
Northern Ireland? Raise your hands if you think, or if you think that the ‘foreign policy establishment’ thinks, that Britain made a mistake by failing to withdraw from Northern Ireland three decades ago – that a united Ireland was inevitable (despite having decidedly failed to ‘evite’ over the past thirty years, with Britain instead achieving all of its Sunningdale demands)?
Chris Bertram 10.28.15 at 7:08 am
@John writes:
i) The idea that Labour can’t win is wrong. In a voluntary voting, multiplarty FPTP system when no party has a solid base larger than 20 per cent of the electorate, just about anything can happen
Well I agree that yours is a superficially plausible view, but I don’t believe it because of the geographical distribution of voters and the fact that boundary and electoral registration changes will further benefit the Tories. Projections I’ve seen suggest that Corbyn would still not win, even if he mobilized very large numbers of young previous non-voters.
Timothy Scriven 10.28.15 at 7:22 am
The quite obvious truth is that a lot of the supposedly sensible left commentators (and I don’t mean commentators on CT- commentators in general) who say “Corbyn can’t win” would, frankly, prefer the Tories to Corbyn. Indeed I think that the majority of the Blairites would prefer five more years of Cameron to Corbyn.
Stephen 10.28.15 at 9:31 am
CB@42: “boundary and electoral registration changes will further benefit the Tories”.
Well, that’s one way of looking at it. I think it would be more accurate to say that the present constituency boundaries seriously disadvantage the Tories, and the proposed changes will even things out; and that changes to the electoral register which remove people who aren’t much interested in voting, or who do not exist, will benefit the Tories only if you think those people (or non-people) are disproportionately anti-Tory.
Stephen 10.28.15 at 9:41 am
David@41: not only Northern Ireland. On the Israel/Palestine issue, Corbyn has been consistently pro-Palestinian, and pro-violent Palestinians. Now, that is an opinion that he is perfectly entitled to hold, but to say that is in accord with what the ‘foreign policy establishment’ thinks is not easily defensible.
Likewise on the Falklands (an issue of more local importance). Corbyn, and Milne, have been consistently pro-Argentine, and anti-selfdetermination. Again, that’s not a FPE view.
Sam Dodsworth 10.28.15 at 9:45 am
changes to the electoral register which remove people who aren’t much interested in voting
The use of ‘much’ here has interesting implications.
Kallan Greybe 10.28.15 at 12:19 pm
At #19:
As far as unelectable is concerned, my own suspicion is that we’re saying that simply because everyone in the commentariat is saying it. The commentariat are saying this because focusing on anything else would mean talking seriously about his economic policies which simply wouldn’t do because the popular economic debate in the UK is so toxic and wrong-headed, that a middle of the road social democrat arguing in favour of what amounts to a common sense view among economists, comes across as a frothing at the mouth, sandal smoking Stalinist to all of these so-called “serious” commentators: the Overton window is off the reservation and sitting nice and comfortable, deep in batshit-crazy-land.
Electability is therefore a nonsense issue invented to allow the jumped up middle-brow pseudo-intellectuals, who still can’t seem to get their heads around the fact that his economic policies are both serious and legitimate (certainly a lot more-so than Osborne’s), to continue to dominate the discussion.
Over and above being elected therefore, challenging the nonsense that is the current debate on the economy is Corbyn’s real project and the single biggest reason why I supported him.
Stephen 10.28.15 at 12:59 pm
Sam: I’m not sure what the implications you mention might be.
If I expand it to “do not care enough about voting to get themselves onto the electoral register”, do your implications still apply?
Sam Dodsworth 10.28.15 at 1:18 pm
Stephen: If it helps, your use of ‘get themselves’ on the electoral register has very much the same interesting implications.
Daragh 10.28.15 at 1:33 pm
I feel it’s worth noting here, qua Roger Gantham and Ze K, support of Corbyn now requires one either overlook his and Milne’s acceptance of Moscow’s (utterly false and self-serving) narrative of the Ukraine conflict, or like the both of them, accepting and internalising it. This is not only morally reprehensible (look up Crimean Tatar Disappearances to get an idea of the thuggish regime Aksyonov is running on the peninsula) but intellectually bankrupt. And this is before we get to Milne’s long history of downplaying the atrocities of the Stalin period in a fashion that would see him tarred as a bizarro David Irving in a just world, or his lamentations about how, the wall and the Stasi notwithstanding, the DDR was just super. And that’s before we get to CORBYN’S OWN statements on these, and other topics, including his dissimulation and half-truths about his long standing support for the IRA.
The main charge against those (like me) who wish the Labour party well but think Corbyn is both a) politically ghastly b) electorally radioactive, is that they’d secretly prefer the Tories. FWIW – as much as I dislike the Cameron government’s policies, it remains infinitely preferable to rule by Corbyn and his circle, who have shown there’s no atrocity they’re willing to overlook so long as it’s done by the right kind of people mouthing the right kind of ‘progressive’ platitudes. That this is a controversial position to take speaks volumes about the weird rabbit hole the UK left has descended into apres Miliband.
Bartleby the Commenter 10.28.15 at 2:46 pm
“as much as I dislike the Cameron government’s policies, it remains infinitely preferable to rule by Corbyn and his circle”
Bombs yesterday, bombs today and bombs tomorrow? I would prefer not to.
Chris Bertram 10.28.15 at 3:16 pm
@Daragh writes Cameron government … remains infinitely preferable to rule by Corbyn and his circle, who have shown there’s no atrocity they’re willing to overlook so long as it’s done by the right kind of people mouthing the right kind of ‘progressive’ platitudes.
This is an interesting observation to make, Daragh, in the light of Cameron’s and Corbyn’s respective recent stances vis-a-vis the governments of China and Saudi Arabia.
Cian 10.28.15 at 3:41 pm
I feel it’s worth noting here, qua Roger Gantham and Ze K, support of Corbyn now requires one either overlook his and Milne’s acceptance of Moscow’s (utterly false and self-serving) narrative of the Ukraine conflict
As opposed to the utterly false and self-serving narrative pushed by the Ukraine, NYT, NATO, etc? Given the choice between Putin and the Ukrainian oligarchs I’d prefer not to.
Daragh 10.28.15 at 3:46 pm
@Chris – Well Cameron’s climb-down on Saudi was, according to all available reportage, at least partly due to the intervention of Michael Gove. Dealing with China and adapting to its rising economic power is more or less an obligation of states these days, and while I find the rolling out of the red carpet to Xi a little bit nauseating, I would still differentiate between ‘normal foreign policy hypocrisy that most governments routinely engage in as a matter of elementary statecraft’ and ‘backbench MP whose newspaper all but endorses the Brighton bombing and newspaper columnist who has spent his career claiming the GULag wasn’t all that bad.’
Then again Chris, you were the one arguing just a short while ago that Corbyn and McDonnell’s long record of support for the IRA wasn’t really an issue because it’s all in the past, so you’ll excuse me if I’m not terribly inclined to take your intervention all that seriously.
Anarcissie 10.28.15 at 3:49 pm
Fr. 10.28.15 at 12:59 am @ 37:
‘… Sanders can lose the primary and still have some long-lasting, programmatic impact on the winning candidate. If I were you, I would not place too much hope in that scenario….
No, I’m just thinking of two or three years of high-level paralysis based only on fear, not any sort of program. One must eke out as best one can under the conditions and constraints that exist, day by day, year by year. Eventually, the US regime of imperialism and funny money will collapse, and then new conditions will arise which are difficult to predict and will probably be even more difficult to experience. But till then.
Just so, the Corbyn thing will not be allowed to succeed, but it may put fear of the natives getting restless into the hearts of the UK ruling class, and somewhat restrain or mitigate their immediately upcoming predations.
Chris Bertram 10.28.15 at 3:55 pm
“No further questions, your honour”
Layman 10.28.15 at 3:59 pm
Daragh @54:
and ‘backbench MP whose newspaper all but endorses the Brighton bombing and newspaper columnist who has spent his career claiming the GULag wasn’t all that bad.’
You like this kind of innuendo, but another way to say ‘all but endorses’ is ‘does not endorse’. Isn’t that so?
Franck 10.28.15 at 4:02 pm
Daragh,
I don’t understand your position here. Saudi Arabia and China regularly commit atrocities now (see Yemen, Bahrain, Syria, Tibet, Xinjiang, local “justice systems”). Why is support for Russia so much worse than support for Saudi Arabia and China now? After all, Cameron is definitely for more cooperation with SA than in the past, even as they commit atrocities.
It is a little odd that one must fight Russia but acquiesce to China. They are both aggrieved rising powers, though of course Russia has invaded and annexed portions of its neighbors and looks to continue to do so. (See South Ossetia and Abkhazia.)
For all the people claiming self-determination, I don’t think that word means what you think it means. Declaring independence and then immediately joining a non-contiguous country isn’t “self-determination”. The Crimea case is particularly interesting, because the current Crimea government is extremely hostile to Crimea Tatar and Ukranian self-determination, even though they have the far stronger historical claim.
Crimea and the Donbass are Russian land grabs, and people who tend to defend them will probably defend any action Russia takes, no matter how conservative or right-wing.
Daragh 10.28.15 at 4:11 pm
Layman – they published an article claiming the bombing was a result of Thatcher’s policy and a letter saying ‘what do you call four dead Tories? A start.’ That’s close enough for me thanks, even if we ignore Corbyn’s inviting of the culprits to Westminster two weeks later (and opposed the Anglo-Irish agreement, natch).
@Chris – gosh, the last time you got this sarky was when you were sticking up for St. Julian of Assange. A more cautious individual might reflect on subsequent developments consider whether lashing oneself so firmly to the Corbynite mast is such a wise idea. It might, at the very least, prevent a distinguished professor of Social and Political Philosophy feeling obliged to claim the UK electorate won’t be overly concerned about one of the prospective PM candidates being an IRA sympathiser, apparently due to a willingness to flush credibility down the toilet before conceding an argument.
Daragh 10.28.15 at 4:20 pm
Ze K – I’d rather not, since a) the ‘citizens’ militias’ were and are, a grotesque farce, b) the head of the ‘official government’ is a mafia boss who gained 2% on the last reasonably fair elections on the peninsula leading to c) even if neither of the above were true, the fact that the new authorities have presided over dozens of disappearances, the liquidation of Tatar representative bodies (the Mezhlis) the illegal exile of their elected leader (Mustafa Dzhemilev), the arrest of Dzhemilev’s son in act of obvious hostage taking, and repeated ethnically based harassment of Tatar citizens.
In other words – you’re not interested in a good faith argument, and don’t even pretend that you are.
Roger Gathman 10.28.15 at 4:24 pm
36, I might be wrong, but I believe Milne himself wrote a column during the Labour leadership campaign that no Labour candidate will win in 2020.
Myself, I have a problem with picking over past election results to predict future ones. The assumption here has to be that conditions are pretty much the same as they were with the last election. That is entirely possible. The long term result of austerity will certainly be bad for the UK economy, or the majority of the members of that economy, but at the moment, it doesn’t seem so bad except at the margins. Now, the margins are huge – that is where the lower paid working class resides – and I think Corbyn is right that the pool of future voters there could put Labour over the top. Unfortunately, he is in the opposition. Instead of doing concrete things that effect that community, he can only oppose concrete things that will harm that community. It remains to be seen whether that will actually motivate people to vote.
On the other hand, the Cameron bet – doubling down on the financial sector and the housing boom – might well blow up in his face before 2020. The anti-austerity program really needs to make the obvious obvious – that as the government shrinks its “debt”, it simply shifts the bearers of the debt function – debt grows enormously in the private sector, where it is taken on by individual households, and where it is held, for fun and profit, by financialized capitalists.
Labour could perhaps pull off what the Liberals did in Canada, given the right circs. The liberals were generally killed in the election in 2011, and if one picked through the data and extrapolated to the next election, it looked very much like the NDP would take the Liberals place. This of course didn’t happen. Trudeau and Corbyn are very different, but they campaigned on broadly similar themes – anti-bigotry, anti-neoliberal foreign policy, pro-active government spending.
Daragh 10.28.15 at 4:28 pm
@Franck –
You’ve kind of made my point. I expect the UK government to do cynical things in the name of realpolitik, because that’s more or less what states do. I also accept that there are certain secular factors that make ‘standing up’ to Beijing or Riyadh exceptionally difficult. And I don’t look to Cameron/Osborne/Hammond for ethical foreign policy ideas (though they’ve had some successes on development that shouldn’t be sneered at).
Corbyn et al’s only foreign policy position for the past several decades is that ‘this is all the US/West/NATO’s fault’ (delete as appropriate) and adopting an aura of moral superiority while burnishing their own ‘radical’ credentials by shouting Hamas slogans. At best, this behaviour is juvenile, knee-jerk anti-Westernism. At worst, it leads to apologias for Stalin and modern day Russian imperialism. It takes a special kind of effort to reject nuance in foreign policy, while ALSO aligning yourself with unequivocally nasty actors but the Corbynistas manage to do so with remarkable frequency (see also, Chavez, Hugo).
Puss Wallgreen 10.28.15 at 4:31 pm
‘backbench MP whose newspaper all but endorses the Brighton bombing”
Did Corbyn have a newspaper then? What was it called? And does the publication of an article in a newspaper imply that this enjoys editorial endorsement?
Layman 10.28.15 at 4:54 pm
@ Daragh:
So they did not in fact endorse it, but you’d rather say they did?
Daragh 10.28.15 at 4:59 pm
@Puss Wallgreen – it was the lead editorial in London Labour Briefing, when Corbyn was general secretary of the editorial board. I think he bears responsibility.
@Layman – only in that Corbyn fell just short of rocking up to the Brighton hotel and taking a selfie with a thumbs up. If you’d like to get yourself tied up in intellectual knots to pretend Corbyn didn’t support IRA terrorism, go head, but it says more about ou etc.
@Ze K – what shift are you on in the Petersburg troll factory that THIS is your beat?
Layman 10.28.15 at 5:11 pm
@ Daragh
That’s an odd standard – that I have to disprove your unsupported assertions.
What’s funny is how closely your rhetoric mirrors the rightist innuendo aimed at Obama (and, to a lesser degree, Clinton). There are plenty of legitimate problems with both those characters, and I suspect with Corbyn, but the strident hyperbole rather undercuts the attacks.
Puss Wallgreen 10.28.15 at 5:14 pm
” it was the lead editorial in London Labour Briefing, when Corbyn was general secretary of the editorial board. I think he bears responsibility”.
Actually Briefing’s front page editorial after the bombing unequivocally condemned it, and notoriously praised Thatcher’s courage. Do you think Corbyn bears responsibility for that also? I suspect you don’t know much about how far left newspapers actually work, but having a couple of figurehead Labour MPs on the editorial board is par for the course – I somewhat doubt that Corbyn would have been going round the Briefing office in a green eyeshade giving the thumbs up to the final copy.
The Temporary Name 10.28.15 at 5:17 pm
Yes, the standards of argument are Hitchens-like.
Daragh 10.28.15 at 5:23 pm
Shorter @Layman – sure the newspaper Corbyn chaired the editorial board of might have published an article with lines like “the British only sit up and take notice [of Ireland] when they are bombed into it.â€, alongside letters mocking Norman Tebbit’s injuries and the deaths of four other cabinet ministers, and Corbyn himself may have invited the perpetrators of said bombing to the House of Commons a few weeks afterwards, but only a demented right-winger would think this amounts to tacitly condoning such acts.
Puss Wallgreen 10.28.15 at 5:25 pm
Incidentally, the claim that “Cameron’s climb-down on Saudi was, according to all available reportage, at least partly due to the intervention of Michael Gove” is true insofar as it goes – but I think this is explained by the fact that all available reporters without exception fawn dotingly on Gove, and hate Corbyn. The headline “Corbyn forces humiliating u-turn on Cameron” is simply not going to happen, I’m afraid. A propos of that, isn’t it odd that our hacks, while bemoaning Corbyn’s unelectability, studiously ignore the actual opinion polls which show the Labour vote holding firm, and (in the new MORI poll) show Corbyn enjoying a 57% approval rate among those aged 18-34?
Daragh 10.28.15 at 5:25 pm
@Puss – well according to the Telegraph Corbyn wrote said front page article (though I’m going to guess it wasn’t as unequivocal as you remember, especially given that you appear to believe commending the courage of a survivor of a mass assassination attempt is something deserving of ‘notoriety’.)
Daragh 10.28.15 at 5:29 pm
@Puss – Good god for someone claiming that the newspapers are cynically spinning this is rich. Labour support ‘holding firm!’ (at 30% with the Tories double digits ahead). Corbyn has record approval among the 18-34! (and has the lowest overall popularity ratings of any Labour leader at this point in their tenure since polls began). In other words, you’re getting sniffy about hacks pointing out objective reality instead of cherry-picking one of the very few data points that doesn’t indicate that Corbyn’s leadership is precisely the catastrophe Labour moderates said it would be.
Puss Wallgreen 10.28.15 at 5:36 pm
I think you need to learn to read more closely, Daragh – what the Telegraph article says is that Corbyn wrote the front page article in the issue of Briefing in which the editorial on the bombing it chooses to highlight appeared – ie the article which Corbyn wrote was nothing to do with Ireland. The editorial condemning the bombing and praising Thatcher’s courage appeared a fortnight before, and presumably on your principle was tacitly backed by Corbyn. Incidentally I really would not base my hypotheses on articles written by Andrew Gilligan – the guy is a dishonest shit and a hysteric, as well as an utterly incompetent journalist (the myriad inaccuracies in this piece and previous ones in the Telegraph could have been cleared up by spending 5 minutes talking with any ex-member of the IMG, but I suspect he wasn’t interested in clearing them up). And yes, I had exactly the same opinion of him when he was trying to dishonestly discredit Blair and Campbell through David Kelly post- Iraq – I have no idea what the Today programme was doing employing such a person.
Daragh 10.28.15 at 5:40 pm
@Puss – that is certainly your right. I also can only take your word on the contents of the London Labour briefing. But given Corbyn’s other recorded actions re: the IRA, and the fact that he and McDonnell have both offered shifting (and entirely bullshit) explanations for their various acts of support, I’m going to err on the side of Gilligan.
Puss Wallgreen 10.28.15 at 5:41 pm
“at 30% with the Tories double digits ahead”
No, the Tories are 4% ahead with 36% on the latest MORI poll. Given the apocalyptic scenarios painted by our hacks of the damage Corbyn’s leadership would do, that’s pretty good I think. Though I suppose you think it means a third of the electorate are IRA supporters.
Daragh 10.28.15 at 5:56 pm
Sorry Puss, I was going by the average of all UK polling instead of the admittedly more scientific method of ‘finding the one poll that doesn’t look AS bad for my argument and then clinging on to it for dear life.’
At this point in the last electoral cycle Labour was running consistent small leads against the Tories. If you’re going to argue ‘In a worse starting position than Ed Miliband, despite the total destruction of the Liberal Democrats and the continued irrelevance of the Green party’ is ‘pretty good’, I’m going to stick with my initial impression that ‘winning elections in order to actually implement policies to benefit the people I claim to care about’ isn’t one of your political priorities.
Bartleby the Commenter 10.28.15 at 6:22 pm
“winning elections in order to actually implement policies to benefit the people I claim to care about’ isn’t one of your political priorities.”
As opposed to winning elections to implement truly awful policies that hurt innocent people? I could say this is a pretty poor argument but I would prefer not to.
Chris Bertram 10.28.15 at 6:25 pm
@Daragh you wrote:
@Chris – gosh, the last time you got this sarky was when you were sticking up for St. Julian of Assange. A more cautious individual might reflect on subsequent developments consider whether lashing oneself so firmly to the Corbynite mast is such a wise idea. It might, at the very least, prevent a distinguished professor of Social and Political Philosophy feeling obliged to claim the UK electorate won’t be overly concerned about one of the prospective PM candidates being an IRA sympathiser, apparently due to a willingness to flush credibility down the toilet before conceding an argument
You are clearly in a state of some emotional distress, and I suppose we should make allowances.
Still, on the particular points you raise:
1. I don’t recall “sticking up for St. Julian of Assange” and certainly not in relation to his Swedish troubles. I may have defended some of the things Wikileaks did, such as exposing war crimes by US forces. I would do so today.
2. “lashing oneself so firmly to the Corbynite mast”. I haven’t done so. I didn’t support Corbyn for the leadership and I don’t think he’s a great choice. However, it is hard not to get irritated with some of his detractors, particularly the less honest ones, whether Telegraph journalists or credulous commenters here.
3. “a distinguished professor of Social and Political Philosophy”. When commenters start referring to me (or other bloggers here) like this, I’m not sure what exactly is going on, usually some passive-aggressive schtick. Anyway, cut it out, it makes you look like an idiot.
4. “obliged to claim the UK electorate won’t be overly concerned about one of the prospective PM candidates being an IRA sympathiser”. I predicted that the electorate would care less about what they think of as ancient history than you happen to think. I could be wrong about that, but it is not something I feel “obliged to claim” just something I think is probably true.
As for sarcasm, well, I suppose I share the feeling of a number of other commenters here that your frothing outrage at historic comments from Corbyn is in tension with your easygoing tolerance for those who cosy up to China and the Saudis.
Layman 10.28.15 at 6:30 pm
“Anyway, cut it out, it makes you look like an idiot.”
This ship, I’m afraid, has sailed.
Anarcissie 10.28.15 at 6:33 pm
Daragh 10.28.15 at 4:28 pm @ 63:
‘… I expect the UK government to do cynical things in the name of realpolitik, because that’s more or less what states do. …‘
In that case, why the hard talk about Russia in Ukraine, Crimea, and other places? The rulers of Russia are doing what states do. The West/US/NATO versus Russia seems to be 0 for 3 in the most recent bouts (Syria, Ukraine/Crimea, Georgia/Abkhazia/Ossetia) which, as far as I can tell at this great distance, were all initiated by the West etc. without provocation as part of some Great Game in someone’s imagination. I would think this poor record and the general strategy behind it might be of concern to even the most realpolitik-oriented of the leadership groups of the US’s more autonomous satellites, even the UK, which makes it relevant to Mr. Corbyn and his competitors.
Daragh 10.28.15 at 6:34 pm
@Chris – you’re doing your usual thing of attributing to me an emotional state which you can’t possibly know (I’m actually in a state of mild irritation, at best, and dashing this off before a post-work drink) and applying rather dishonest and bad faith interpretations of things that I have said in order to avoid engaging in an argument.
I suspect that, no, you’re not silly or stupid enough to actually believe your countrymen wouldn’t look askance at the leader of the Labour party and his deputy both being long time IRA supporters and lying about their motivations for doing so. That you’re willing to claim otherwise than to accept the minor loss of face of conceding an argument on the internet is truly baffling, and yes, why I pointed out that you’re a serious person with a serious position who should know better.
And FWIW – the actions of the Provos may be ancient history TO YOU, but I quite vividly remember Omagh, or hearing about relatives and friends threatened with murder because they had the temerity to engage in politics Gerry Adams didn’t approve of.
Puss Wallgreen 10.28.15 at 6:39 pm
” I was going by the average of all UK polling”
And I was going on the most recent and thorough of polls, published a few days ago – your link leads to poll figures not updated since May, as far as I can tell. I don’t recall that the argument of the ABCs was that Corbyn would register slightly worse support than Ed Miliband – it was that his election would lead to a complete collapse of Labour’s position. In fact it’s pretty much where I would expect it to have been had Burnham been elected, which is quite astonishing given the unprecedented and unceasing torrent of abuse and misrepresentation served up by Gilligan, Cohen, Wintour, Rentoul et al. In any case, it all seems to show that “the UK electorate won’t be overly concerned about one of the prospective PM candidates being an IRA sympathiser” as far as I can tell – people just don’t seem to be buying into this, do they?
Chris Bertram 10.28.15 at 6:47 pm
@Daragh
the actions of the Provos may be ancient history TO YOU, but I quite vividly
The issue is not what they are to me or to you, but what they will be to voters in the UK general election in 2020.
Layman 10.28.15 at 6:50 pm
@Daragh:
“And FWIW – the actions of the Provos may be ancient history TO YOU, but I quite vividly remember Omagh, or hearing about relatives and friends threatened with murder because they had the temerity to engage in politics Gerry Adams didn’t approve of.”
This is almost quaint, given that the current norm in neoliberal and neoconservative leadership is to actually kill those who have the temerity to engage in politics of which they disapprove.
Z 10.28.15 at 6:55 pm
I suspect that, no, you’re not silly or stupid enough to actually believe your countrymen wouldn’t look askance at the leader of the Labour party and his deputy both being long time IRA supporters and lying about their motivations for doing so.
I’m quite silly, generally speaking, but as a very uninformed outsider my reaction is 1) evidently, some don’t, or Corbyn wouldn’t have scored a crushing electoral victory despite the active opposition of both the establishment of his party and the media and 2) sticking to foreign policy I’m ready to bet that most UK politicians of national stature are as strong supporters of either the Saudi régime, or the invasion of Iraq, or the crushing of the Bahrain uprising, or the colonization of the West Bank and the blockade of Gaza as Corbyn is a supporter of the IRA. What, in your opinion, is someone who opposes all this things to do then? And what is so unreasonable in thinking that many people might give less weight to the issue that has actually been resolved since then?
Ronan(rf) 10.28.15 at 6:56 pm
Where is the evidence that the British electorate care about these issues. Have I missed it on this thread ?Im not joking, Id genuinely be interested in seeing some (as Im largely indifferent to the question) but all we have (in general, not specific to Daragh) at the minute is speculation from political anoraks’ hobby horses’.
Ronan(rf) 10.28.15 at 7:00 pm
..*in general* in the media and among political lobbyists, not ‘in general’ on this thread.
Bartleby the Commenter 10.28.15 at 7:03 pm
I would say that supporting the invasion of Iraq, the Saudi Government and the oppression of Palestinians are all objectively greater moral problems than arguing that maybe the IRA had a point. Well I would say it but, as always, I would prefer not to.
Franck 10.28.15 at 7:14 pm
Ronan,
I see very little evidence the British electorate cares about these elements of foreign policy at all. Ukraine, Russia, China, and Saudi Arabia exercise Daragh a lot, but probably not most voters. I daresay for most voters on the island of Britain, the actions of the IRA in the 80s are both ancient history and “foreign policy”.
Daragh has a lot of concerns, but they don’t seem to map well to the concerns of the British electorate. His party, the LibDems, also seems to struggle recently in being of interest to the electorate.
Brett Dunbar 10.28.15 at 8:34 pm
It should be noted that motivating non-voters isn’t going to help Labour much. There are two reasons for this. Firstly the political preferences of non-voters don’t seem to differ much from those of voters. Secondly they mostly live in safe seats, disproportionately in seats Labour won fairly easily. Of the 100 seats with the lowest turnouts Labour won 92. Voters in marginal seats tend to vote, the turnout is seats where voting matters tends to be pretty high. Not bothering to vote mostly happens in constituencies where is doesn’t much matter.
Bloix 10.28.15 at 10:05 pm
Whatever he truly believes, Corbyn is the kind of leftist who can easily be painted as hating his country. This is a man who, within days of being made head of the party, ostentatiously refused to sing the national anthem. During a Battle of Britain remembrance. In St Paul’s Cathedral.
Puss Wallgreen 10.28.15 at 10:15 pm
The vast majority of British people who are not active football hooligans have never sung the national anthem. Ever. Anywhere.
Layman 10.28.15 at 10:46 pm
Shorter Bloix: I don’t know what Corbyn believes, but I’m happy to say he hates his country.
engels 10.28.15 at 11:40 pm
Good to see Bloix bringing the same standards of knowledge and argumentative rigour he usually marshalls to attack critics of Israeli colonialism to those of British colonialism.
Bloix 10.29.15 at 12:06 am
The Guardian:
“The new Labour leader initially defended his decision not to sing, saying it was a respectful ceremony and he stood in respect throughout.
 Speaking to Sky News, he would not say whether or not he would sing the anthem in future…
“Within minutes of the interview being broadcast, Labour sources confirmed that Corbyn would in fact sing the national anthem in future…
“Kate Green, the new shadow women and equalities minister, said: “… For many people, the monarchy, singing the national anthem is a way of showing that respect. I think it would have been appropriate and right and respectful of people’s feelings to have done so.â€
Not ready for prime time, perhaps.
ttp://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/sep/16/jeremy-corbyn-will-sing-national-anthem-in-future-says-labour
engels 10.29.15 at 1:06 am
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
Who. Cares.
Bloix 10.29.15 at 2:24 am
Oh, I don’t know. Potential Labour voters, maybe. No one important.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2015/09/new-polling-data-shows-challenge-facing-jeremy-corbyn
John Quiggin 10.29.15 at 4:10 am
“I think it would be more accurate to say that the present constituency boundaries seriously disadvantage the Tories”
Not so seriously as to stop them winning an absolute majority of seats with 37 per cent of votes.
Perhaps it might be accurate to say “don’t advantage the Tories as much as they advantage Labour”
John Quiggin 10.29.15 at 4:31 am
On the main issue, I remain unconvinced by the predominant view that the 2020 election is, in some sense, a done deal (that is, a certain Tory win). There’s far too much inherent uncertainty, amplified by the voting system, for this to make sense.
To point to just one factor that makes the outcome unpredictable, there’s the EU referendum, due next year. A couple of scenarios
(a) The vote is to go out. All kinds of chaos might ensue, including a Scottish push for independence, a financial crisis, even a decision by Cameron to ignore the result. The result could be anything from a Tory landslide (eg if Scotland leaves the UK and England prospers) to a rout (financial crisis blamed on Brexit)
(b) The vote is to stay in. Again, anything could happen. UKIP voters and the UKIP wing of the Tories could easily see it as a sellout by Cameron. Alternatively, he could be viewed as the man who stood up to Brussels and finally got a fair deal.
That’s only one possible shock. How many people in 2005 would have predicted, for 2010, a Cameron-Clegg coalition elected on a platform of austerity?
Tabasco 10.29.15 at 6:04 am
How many people in 2005 would have predicted, for 2010, a Cameron-Clegg coalition elected on a platform of austerity?
Very few, since they only formed a coalition after the election.
John Quiggin 10.29.15 at 6:34 am
@104 Do you mean to make a serious point, or is this just pedantic snark?
Puss Wallgreen 10.29.15 at 6:49 am
“Potential Labour voters, maybe”.
The operative word will be “maybe” until you provide some actual evidence of any voters giving a toss about Corbyn not singing the national anthem – the link you provide doesn’t do anything of the sort. As I have pointed out, the actual polls on voting intentions – on which the NS/Guardian/Independent etc remain uncannily silent – show no erosion of the Labour vote. I suspect the focus on Corbyn’s reluctance to follow arcane rituals has generated some sympathy for him, and for many will have highlighted the archaic and undemocratic nature of the British state – as will the current furore re the House of Lords. As a matter of interest, Bloix old sport, could you tell us where and when you last lustily bellowed out the national anthem? or were in the company of those who did?
Ronan(rf) 10.29.15 at 8:31 am
Bloix, your polling data link says nothing about singing the national anthem (and/or the Ira , Palestine , Ukraine etc) Whst would be the electoral consequences of jeremy corbyn refusing to sing the national anthem while visiting Hamas at the invitation of Putin in Eastern Ukraine with Gerry Adams ? A fascinating topic for which we have no meaningful data
Gareth Wilson 10.29.15 at 8:57 am
I remember a blogger discussing George W. Bush, and saying that the horrors of his administration prove how important it is for voters to choose competent politicians with good policies, rather than the guy they’d prefer to have a beer with. I couldn’t help thinking he’d got that wrong. Didn’t it actually prove that competent politicians with good policies should go to every effort to become the person you’d prefer to have a beer with? I’ll leave the application to Corbyn to your imagination.
Jim Buck 10.29.15 at 9:08 am
When it was customary to play the “national anthem” at the end of cinema screenings most of the audience used to scramble for the door–leaving a coterie of eccentrics standing dutifully by their seats. . That was the case in the north of England, anyway. It is likely that things were rather different in Northern Ireland. The provenance of the tune needs popularising. Wikipedia claims that it is based on a composition by John Bull. I don’t thinks so, really:
Marc 10.29.15 at 12:44 pm
@108: It’s a good deal more devastating than that. It’s an indication that the people who vote for the Labor party aren’t ideologically aligned with their new leader, although the minority of Labor voters who participated in the election chose him with an overwhelming margin. This is the classic recipe for an electoral disaster, and if this was in the US, I’d consider a solid decade of right wing rule to be an unmitigated disaster to be avoided at all costs.
Layman 10.29.15 at 12:58 pm
@Bloix, @Marc
That poll is hackery of the first order. That you take it seriously says much about the absence of rigor you’re bringing to the discussion. So, you know, cut it out. Get serious.
Ronan(rf) 10.29.15 at 1:43 pm
Marc , I get that although I also disagree (the questions are pretty loaded, generalised and trivial) But anyway that’s not the claim. The claim is the British public cares about national anthem singing, the Ira and Putin , not that they won’t vote Cronyn for specific policy reasons or (in the case of that poll) because of vague and selective interpretations of “values.” If people were making the second argument (policy snd/or ideology) they’d prob be on former ground than national anthems and Gerry Adams
Bloix 10.29.15 at 2:17 pm
#106 – It was in early August, at a Nats game. They were doing pretty well then, and the stadium was full.
#110 – you’ve got it backward- the Germans borrowed the tune from the British. As they say, correlation does not prove causation. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heil_dir_im_Siegerkranz
The origin appears to be older and from the UK – perhaps a transposition into a major key of this hymn:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4fPfmPcys8M
As for Corbyn, as I understand what happened, the mainstream “modern” leadership of the party decided that they had to become VSP’s to win the election, so they went all-in for austerity. A solid chunk of the English electorate (over 14%), given a choice between real Tories, fake Tories, and Tory lackeys, voted for UKIP, who at least are “authentic,” and the Scots stampeded to the SNP. As I understand it, UKIP’s gain was Labour’s loss – and that makes sense. If a working class party decides it needs to go upscale, the workers have to go somewhere, and the radical right is the traditional alternative.
At the leadership election, Labour voters registered their disgust with the fake Tories by voting for the one candidate who wasn’t telling them economic nonsense. Perfectly reasonable choice. The problem is that, as far as I can see, Corbyn has shown little interest in winning back the fake Labour leaders who decided to become Tory Lite, and no appeal to the kind of Labour voter who went to UKIP in this election. His philosophy seems to be better fewer but better, which is fine if you’re leading the vanguard of a revolutionary movement but not so good if you need votes.
Art Deco 10.29.15 at 2:41 pm
They’re not elected officials, Dr. Quiggen. They can do whatever they bloody please, among which is to affiliate or refuse to affiliate with the Labour caucus in the Lords. They’re also both over 70, so not likely expecting any executive office from whomever leads the Labour Party even if Labour were able to win a parliamentary majority in the next decade. Given that Jeremy Corbyn makes Michael Foot and Tony Benn look supremely salable, and has the erudition of Geri Halliwell to boot, that’s not likely to happen.
engels 10.29.15 at 3:06 pm
“no appeal to the kind of Labour voter who went to UKIP”
Actually he has plenty of appeal to the people who did that, who aren’t ideologically right-wing and did it as a kind of protest against the ‘Westminster elite’ / technocracy / the ‘extreme center
Jim Buck 10.29.15 at 3:34 pm
@114 Right you are. (The Germans are welcome to the dirge)
Igor Belanov 10.29.15 at 3:44 pm
“Corbyn has shown little interest in winning back the fake Labour leaders who decided to become Tory Lite”
This task was made more difficult by the fact that most of them threw their toys out of the pram and resigned from the shadow cabinet en masse when Corbyn was elected.
Corbyn has in fact been remarkably conciliatory towards the sections of the party’s professional elite who he so comprehensively drubbed in the leadership election. Like most of the Labour Left he usually puts party unity above all else when it comes to the crunch.
Marc 10.29.15 at 3:46 pm
@113: I see your point, and it is a fair one. In 1992 the Republicans were certain that Vietnam war issues with Clinton would be fatal to his chances, and they were wrong; there is a comparable space in time between the Troubles and today (1998 would be 17 years ago; the fall of Saigon was 18 years before 1992.)
The worry about symbols is less that they are crucial individually and more that they’d make for effective election-season propaganda. In the US this would work to devastating effect, with a series of complementary out of context things painting someone as an extremist nut over months. Is this a common tactic in UK elections as well?
Layman 10.29.15 at 4:34 pm
It should be remembered that strident character assassination as a campaign tactic failed John McCain spectacularly. It seems economic considerations in the minds of voters sometimes trump a Muslim Kenyan Marxist birth.
Bloix 10.29.15 at 4:38 pm
#118 – you may be right – the problem may be with who Corbyn is, not what he is trying to do.
#119 – Clinton just avoided the draft. But 12 years later the Dems ran Kerry, who had actively opposed the war, and even though he was a genuine war hero, they clobbered him with it. Which is the better analogy?
#117 – it’s a god-awful song, no question.
Art Deco 10.29.15 at 6:25 pm
and even though he was a genuine war hero, they clobbered him with it.
He was a combat veteran. No heroics, really. The ‘they’ in question would be his peers as Swift Boat captains and officers all up his chain of command, who came to have a low opinion of him.
Clinton just avoided the draft.
No, he shirked his ROTC service obligations.
Art Deco 10.29.15 at 6:27 pm
Actually he has plenty of appeal to the people who did that,
He’ll get to it, right?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/Jeremy_Corbyn/11906103/Jeremy-Corbyn-receives-the-worst-ratings-for-a-Labour-leader-in-60-years.html
The Temporary Name 10.29.15 at 6:30 pm
He does have a silver star and a bronze star, presumably awarded with the awareness of people in his chain of command.
chris y 10.29.15 at 6:35 pm
The origin appears to be older and from the UK – perhaps a transposition into a major key of this hymn
There’s some evidence that the words at least were originally a Jacobite song, “God save great James, our king…”, which was taken up by the Hanoverians because it became incomprehensibly popular.
So far as Corbyn is concerned, I very much doubt if anyone who is offended by him not singing along is likely to be one of his target voters anyway. Besides, perhaps he’s tone deaf.
Art Deco 10.29.15 at 6:40 pm
He does have a silver star and a bronze star, presumably awarded with the awareness of people in his chain of command.
That’s true. He was also awarded three purple hearts. His worst injury landed him in the infirmary for a day and a half. Sometimes the value of these medals is subject to inflation.
I find these controversies amusing. Sometimes partisan Democrats fancy military service matters a great deal (as in 2004), sometimes it matters not at all (1996, 1992), or sometimes only the vice presidential candidate’s service record matters (1988). Successfully maneuvering to shirk your ROTC service obligations is testament to your ingenuity. Signing up for the National Guard is prima facie evidence of having pulled strings, never mind a six figure sum of people were entering the Guard every year and the guy sworn in next to you was Joe Blow off the sidewalks of Muncie. If you had a student deferment on and off during the ‘advisory war’ in VietNam and then your wife got pregnant in 1965, that matters. If you had a student deferment through most of the Korean War, that does not matter, unless of course your the President’s younger brother, in which case it matters to cartoonists who only punch up, dontcha know.
Art Deco 10.29.15 at 6:43 pm
So far as Corbyn is concerned, I very much doubt if anyone who is offended by him not singing along is likely to be one of his target voters anyway.
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2013/jul/19/there-is-now-republican-movement
He’s not targeting the other 83% of the electorate. They’re vulgar.
The Temporary Name 10.29.15 at 6:50 pm
It’s just an illustration that the right is good at manufacturing history and sticking to it.
chris y 10.29.15 at 6:54 pm
Art Deco, there’s a big difference between being a committed republican and not giving a shit.
Art Deco 10.29.15 at 7:09 pm
It’s just an illustration that the right is good at manufacturing history and sticking to it.
There is no manufactured history, just humbug which comes and goes and which you’ve taken upon yourself to offer again.
Art Deco 10.29.15 at 7:14 pm
Art Deco, there’s a big difference between being a committed republican and not giving a shit.
Mr. Corbyn’s signalling that he does give a sh!t. He’s just on the wrong side of the line from about 3/4 of the British public. Any discrete gesture likely matters little. Then again, there are yesterday’s, today’s, and tomorrow’s discrete gestures. I do not think he’s adding little increments with discrete gestures like the one under discussion, unless he fancies the untapped constituency which will drag him over the finish line is made up of people on the Ken Livingstone – Robert Hughes axis of warm and wonderful personalities.
John Quiggin 10.29.15 at 7:16 pm
Bingo!
Puss Wallgreen 10.29.15 at 7:37 pm
“He’s just on the wrong side of the line from about 3/4 of the British public”
You appear to be both an American and a dickhead, so maybe you just don’t get it, but a majority of British people being in balance in favour of retaining a monarchy does not equate to a majority of British people believing that republicans should be forced to sing the national anthem, any more than the majority of British people being carnivores means they think Corbyn should be forced to abandon his vegetarianism. The whole “loving your country” schtick that the media have unleashed on Corbyn seems to me yet another imported US trope that won’t fly here. Certainly not among young people, on the evidence of the latest MORI poll.
Bloix 10.29.15 at 7:50 pm
#132 – I really don’t get why people who have dedicated themselves to years and even decades of hard work for the right to be called Dr. and Prof. hate being called Dr. and Prof. so much. I feel when I’m disagreeing with you, it’s polite not to assume too much familiarity by using your first names. But I’m happy to call you John and Chris, if you prefer it, even though I don’t know you from Adam. (Well, as for John, I have a signed copy of Zombie Economics, so I’ve set eyes on you, but I don’t know Chris from Adam.) I assure you I don’t mean it offensively. I actually do think that university professors are a class of people who deserve respect for what they’ve achieved.
Art Deco 10.29.15 at 7:51 pm
You appear to be both an American and a dickhead,
That may be true, but I’m still not suffering from your reading comprehension issues. I’ve addressed your point.
Puss Wallgreen 10.29.15 at 7:55 pm
No you haven’t.
Roger Gathman 10.29.15 at 7:55 pm
Personally, I think refusing to sing the National anthem was actually a good political move by Corbyn. In Britain, unlike the US, there is a cultural tolerance for and liking of eccentricity. Churchill, who is about as eccentric a character as you could get outside of a cartoon strip, is a case in point.
But the elections are far away, and I think the crucial thing for Corbyn and Labour is how much they are able to block or modify the conservative iniatives while continuing a vigorous anti-austerian campaign. Labour’s being cowed about the deficit durin the last campaign doomed them. To sign on for more of that stuff seems to me to position them as hapless, much like the Tory strategy opposing Blair. If some events break their way, and the majority of Brits, those household making 50,000 pounds or less, feel threatened, Corbyn will look prescient. If events don’t break their way and its party time in the UK in 2020, he’ll look like a goose. He should certainly double down on his foreign policy issues, however. It should be like shooting ducks to oppose Cameron’s military and foreign policy. Of course, the press will rain shit down on his head for that, but I don’t think that will have any more effect in the future than it had in the run for the Labour leadership.
Art Deco 10.29.15 at 7:56 pm
No you haven’t.
Yes, I did, at post 131 in just a few sentences. I can explain this to you. I cannot comprehend in for you.
Art Deco 10.29.15 at 7:57 pm
In Britain, unlike the US, there is a cultural tolerance for and liking of eccentricity.
Either you don’t live here or you live in Pauline Kael’s ‘special world’.
Puss Wallgreen 10.29.15 at 8:11 pm
“I can explain this to you”
No you can’t. If you think a tone of wankerish world-weary hauteur renders sentences like “I do not think he’s adding little increments with discrete gestures like the one under discussion, unless he fancies the untapped constituency which will drag him over the finish line is made up of people on the Ken Livingstone – Robert Hughes axis of warm and wonderful personalities” comprehensible or literate you are wrong, I’m afraid.
ZedBlank 10.29.15 at 8:14 pm
Ah, yes, the swift-boating. Reminds me of this old Onion article:
http://www.theonion.com/article/swift-boat-veterans-still-hounding-kerry-1252
Kerry’s achievement was to be one of the lowest-charisma candidates in the histories of politics and belly button lint, and yet still lose the presidency by a smaller margin than in any previous presidential election against an incumbent.
Art Deco 10.29.15 at 8:59 pm
and yet still lose the presidency by a smaller margin than in any previous presidential election against an incumbent.
So what? Incumbents lost in 1992, 1980, 1976, 1932, 1912, 1892, 1888, 1840; felt compelled to retire in 1968 and 1952 due to bad showings in primary elections; and were not renominated in 1884 and 1856.
js. 10.29.15 at 9:14 pm
@134, etc. This is surely why initials were invented—“JQ”, “CB”, etc. work perfectly (tho Holbo is always “Holbo”, I’m not totally sure why).
djr 10.29.15 at 9:24 pm
Kerry vs Bush is a perfect example of the difference between what people claim the electorate value, and what the electorate actually vote for. In recent US presidential elections, when the choice is between a man who has fought in a war and a man who hasn’t, the man who hasn’t always wins. (I think there’s one exception to my rule in the last 40 years.)
ZedBlank 10.29.15 at 9:44 pm
@142 – And yet none of those losses occurred because of some transparently bogus smear campaign… weird!
My point was that by discussing the swiftboat “scandal” with a straight face, you raise some questions about your credibility. I don’t know if it’s been decided yet which side of the pond you reside on, but over here in the states, Swiftboating is synonymous with desperate smearing. Which from where I’m standing (admittedly not close) is what much of the UK press has been doing to Corbyn.
Art Deco 10.29.15 at 10:41 pm
My point was that by discussing the swiftboat “scandal†with a straight face,
You’re point is witlessly partisan, false, and stupid. There was no ‘transparent smear campaign’. A mess of people who knew John Kerry and knew the terrain and thought little of him said their piece. Kerry had built his entire public career on the foundation of 44 months on active duty and, 35 years later, was using some of his boat mates as campaign props. Well, some other people on the scene had something to say. If that’s inconvenient to your worldview, tough.
Art Deco 10.29.15 at 10:43 pm
Kerry vs Bush is a perfect example of the difference between what people claim the electorate value, and what the electorate actually vote for. In recent US presidential elections, when the choice is between a man who has fought in a war and a man who hasn’t, the man who hasn’t always wins. (I think there’s one exception to my rule in the last 40 years.)
I think there’s a fallacy in there which may even have an ancient proper name.
Layman 10.29.15 at 10:50 pm
@ Art Deco
I’ll bite – which of the Swiftboat Veterans for Truth were actual witnesses to the events they claimed to dispute?
The Temporary Name 10.29.15 at 10:55 pm
Oh nonsense Deco, but it’s an interesting position trying to be the guy with a no-nonsense attitude to politics and then asserting SBVT were just simple citizens trying to set the record straight. Sorry for the threadjack, my part will cease.
Roger Gathman 10.29.15 at 11:00 pm
This story is the kind of thing that shows Corbyn is having an effect: http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/oct/29/tax-credit-cuts-face-major-mitigation-as-tory-mps-fear-they-go-too-far
The Tories are in revolt over tax credits mainly because, now, Labour is vocally opposing them. As a Guardian reader commented, “only 21 Labour MPs originally voted against the proposals when Harriaet Harman was Acting Leader of the Labour Party and recommended abstaining.” The question at the moment is whether Labour can produce by opposing. That’s the only path to credibility in 2020.
John Quiggin 10.29.15 at 11:24 pm
Art Deco: Nothing more from you on this thread, please. To other commenters,
Please Do Not Feed The Trolls
Bruce Wilder 10.30.15 at 12:18 am
The asymmetry of partisan rhetoric, tropes and tactics revealed by “swiftboating” and the Corbyn national anthem “controversy” — or by the way John McDonnell’s reference to Bobby Sands was used — goes deep into differences of resources and character between left and right, as well as between elites and followers.
The essential character of an effective left is opposition to an oppressive elite establishment, and that effectiveness rests on recognizing elite corruption and hostility to the common or general interest. The essential character of neoliberalism is to deny completely elite predation as the primary motive of conservative politics. Conservative politics, as practiced in our neoliberal times, is to lie, cheat and steal with impunity and a clear conscience, confident that a neoliberal left will not criticize anything of economic substance, confining itself to social issues framed with an eye toward undermining any emergent sense of solidarity.
The confident ease with which the forces of reaction manipulate the electorate is only tangentially related to the particular character or stance or style of a particular politician. The power to manipulate rests in the first instance on the organization and resources of the manipulators, and in the second, on the purposes of those sponsoring the manipulation.
That the shepherd may tend to become indistinguishable from the wolf is the essential political dilemma of a hierarchical society. That the sheep should not complain is the conservative ambition. The neoliberals offer the wolf the job of shepherd, proposing to reconcile the sheep to the depredations of the wolf with better PR. Some of the left is happy to dream idly of a magical world of no shepherds or wolves. The hard practical thing is to maintain the potential for revolution alongside the capacity to distinguish shepherds from wolves.
david 10.30.15 at 2:28 am
The hard practical thing is to maintain the potential for revolution…
Uh…
kidneystones 10.30.15 at 2:39 am
I’d be more curious to learn what rank and file Labour voters think about Labour policies. As these policies are subject, ahem, to revision, it seems positively silly to speculate about ‘what’s going to happen’ anytime past the EU referendum. In this case, JQ @ 103, is absolutely correct.
I still contend that Labour very much needed/needs Corbyn as the leader of Labour. There’s little doubt that Corbyn believed he believed what he claims to believe, but even he is finding maybe he doesn’t believe somethings he once held to be either true, or worth fighting for. He’s finding which priorities count, and as he does, so do others. Some will be surprised to discover where Labour grandees stand, others welcome the clarity provided by the actions in the Lords. Tis a stupid, outmoded institution that does not provide any of the checks and balances the upper house in two-house system is supposed to guarantee. It should be scrapped – Full stop. I’m not reading much of substance about Corbyn, not that I’m looking, but I’d much prefer to see him promising to flush every Labour peer out of the party at the earliest opportunity. A Labour Peer, if that isn’t an oxymoron I don’t know what is.
dax 10.30.15 at 9:34 am
“On the main issue, I remain unconvinced by the predominant view that the 2020 election is, in some sense, a done deal (that is, a certain Tory win).”
If the economy takes a nose dive between now and then – which has a pretty high probability – the Tories will be toast. I’m not sure who will win, but it won’t be the Tories.
djr 10.30.15 at 9:48 am
kidneystones @ 154: If it helps, ignore all the Ruritanian nonsense and mentally substitute “Senator” or “member of the (appointed) upper house”. If we have an upper house, we need Labour to appoint members to it, this is not an oxymoron.
kidneystones 10.30.15 at 12:03 pm
@156 Thank you for this. Actually, I grasp the concept. I’d have thought, however, that you’d notice that as voters actually have no say in who actually sits in the House of Lords, or for how long, calling the House of Lords a ‘senate’, an ‘upper house,’ or any other body we’d expect to find in a democracy seems a little stupid. It’s a golden parachute for political hacks all of whom should be forced off the public tit.
We probably agree that an elected upper house would be a good thing. It’ll never happen, of course, not even under Corbyn, which is telling.
Marc 10.30.15 at 1:01 pm
Defending garbage attacks on a 12-year old presidential candidate is already ludicrous. Doing so knowing that the other candidate who won was a complete disaster, leaving office with approval ratings in the 20s, is just sad.
Bringing this back from the fantasies of US right wingers, I don’t think Kerry is evidence for this thesis at all. His military service was a net positive; the attacks on him just made it less so than it usually would be.
Bloix 10.30.15 at 2:01 pm
#154 – “Tis a stupid, outmoded institution that does not provide any of the checks and balances the upper house in two-house system is supposed to guarantee. It should be scrapped – Full stop.”
Except that the Lords have just delayed the tax credit cuts. http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-34631156
I don’t know about the balances, but that was a check with a vengeance.
engels 10.30.15 at 4:36 pm
11 millionaires who voted for tax credit cuts in the House of Lords
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/11-millionaires-who-voted-tory-6713773
Stephen D. 10.31.15 at 10:56 am
Chris Bertram @81
2. “lashing oneself so firmly to the Corbynite mastâ€. I haven’t done so. I didn’t support Corbyn for the leadership and I don’t think he’s a great choice. However, it is hard not to get irritated with some of his detractors, particularly the less honest ones, whether Telegraph journalists or credulous commenters here.
I have some sympathy with this. I voted for Liz Kendall (we few, we happy few) and think Corbyn’s election was a disaster for the Labour party but a certain amount of the anti-Corbyn stuff emanating from the right wing press is nonsense and when it is regurgitated by the Labour right it doesn’t really help.
Bruce B. 10.31.15 at 4:44 pm
Two of my British friends, one in his 30s, one in his 40s, have made basically the same comment recently: Blairites and Cleggites have killed more Brits and inflicted far more harm on the structure of society than the IRA ever did, and they don’t feel Corbyn should have any greater burden of apology (or shame) than those crews. Let those who’ve been inflicting mass death and suffering recently start the reparations, basically.
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