Saddam’s capture anniversary

But if you were to read the profound insights of the world’s premier new Islamic scholar David Aaronovitch, you would know that ‘the insurgency wants to oppress Kurds, suppress the Shia and “physically exterminate” trade unions and feminist groups’. (he presumably gains this information from previously untranslated Arabic documents).

Moreover if you read all the profound writings of the pro-invasion left and their political masters, you would know that the insurgency consists exclusively of ‘super-jihadists’, perhaps grown in laboratories, and flown over the border (perhaps by laser power super mutated Islamo-pigeons) from the new and exciting Sunni-Shia Islamo-fascist alliance, orchestrated by Iran and Saudi Arabia and Al-Qaeda, working together (these three entities having a long record of co-operation of course).

Oh and Ba’athists. I nearly forgot. Because every single Sunni who wants a timetable for withdrawal of the occupying coalition forces… as I say, every single one of these people wants the return of the Ba’ath party and Saddam Hussein returned to power, a fact well known amongst inhabitants of the ‘dinner party underground’ (the secret hideout of some of our more fatuous and highly paid newspaper columnists, where they plot victory in the war on terror).

You’re not falling for the extremist/communist/Islamo-fascist line that some of these so called insurgents (or “Pigeon powered Islamo-bot murderers” as they would be called if the media wasn’t run by liberals and Marxists) are actually non-Ba’athist Iraqis are you? Shame on you. Victory over these terrorists is round the corner. There is light at the end of the tunnel. We are near the tipping point. The end is coming into view. Etc. etc. etc.

[aeiou] Good post. After the Tookie Williams fiasco, I knew you had to do something to get your mojo back. I was predicting another “Bush=Monkey” job, but “Americaistheeviloneinthe middleeast” is just about as good.

Steve

But I guess, thinking back, that I thought that at least the Baathist part of the insurgency would be demoralised and that some might give up.

Why? Saddam was a spent force who’d spent over a decade trying to prop up his image in the region with impotent ranting at the west, much like a banana republic dictator to our south.

Saddam’s removal is some officer’s opportunity. That’s how Saddam moved up. When I heard the details of Saddam’s effects, the things he had when he was arrested, I figured he was pretty much irrelevant to the process of quagmire he’d set in motion.
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Luckily this is all academic (to coin a phrase). The elections are in 2 days, and that will demonstrate that there is no future in armed resistance and that democracy is the only way forward. It’s the tipping point, and the resulting decrease in violence will be the light at the end of the tunnel etc. etc. etc. (repeat until dead).

Wait, I have a solution to this whole mess. Let’s partition Iraq. Make half of it a Christian Theocracy. Declair a new state. Import a few million Christion. Problem solved.

Haven’t we done enough damage to Iraq without dumping Falwell, Dobson, and Robertson on them? It would probably be considered a war crime.

Haven’t we done enough damage to Iraq without dumping Falwell, Dobson, and Robertson on them?

I don’t mean to be rude, but crc’s post quite clearly referred to Christians.
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But I guess, thinking back, that I thought that at least the Baathist part of the insurgency would be demoralised and that some might give up.

Are we so sure that hasn’t happened? Does anybody have a clear picture of how much of the violence is the work of deposed Ba’athists, how much is Al Qaeda-in-Iraq, and how much is being done by local Sunni tribal or religious groups? Perhaps Iraqi Ba’athism really did pretty much collapse with Saddam’s capture, and the current violence is the result of other insurgent groups filling the vaccuum left by its disappearance, exploiting the continuing Sunni discontent with Shiite/Kurd dominance.

Or perhaps not–I have no idea. Anybody here have some facts they could inject into this discussion?

Dan, in the absence of any evidence that such a thing has happened I would think that we don’t need to make the case that it hasn’t. However, I would start with any professional (military) analyses/surveys of the tactics involved and how they have developed, since the groups widely differ in training and resources.

The only instances of Baathists “giving up” are those that have become paramilitaries in loose alliance with occupation forces in the Sunni triangle, an arrangement the Brits advocated early on (and I’m inclined to trust their experience in these things) but they were ignored.
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What has happened is that those disparate groups have joined together to expel the infidel. Rep Murtha is right that we have created a focus for them. The facts are kept close in the Bush admin. But, if you have access to Iraqi US citizens, the information is available.

Saddam’s trial is a useful act – perhaps it’ll give all those good Shia folks enough of a vague reason to put up with infidels’ tanks on their streets for a little longer.

when we are fighting the establishment of an Islamic State from Spain to Indonesia(listen to el shrub’s stupid speech today), the fall of Saddam is but a small victory. what we need is noble Knights(Templar would be good) in their full glory to fight the heathen hordes from shore to bloody shore.

also, CRC i think that if we unleashed the massive power of Kong, we could win any gorilla war :-p

But aren’t we all safer now?

Well, we could try Kong.

Or we could try strip bars and liquor-by-the-drink would work. Combined, they transformed Dallas from a theocratic backwater into a thriving metropolis and financial powerhouse.
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Good ideas. Here’s some thoughts from sdh3.

10 stoner ideas for bringing peace to Iraq
By: Clyde Jones

Hey, whatsup y’all. Been passing out with CNN on a lot lately, and I’ve noticed that shit seems pretty farked up over in Iraq. Also heard like, most of the Democrats have the same ideas for what to do about it as Bush does. Which got me thinking. I got ideas coming out the ass, especially when I toke on the ganja, which is pretty much all the time. So I came up with this list of presents we can all give to Iraq for Christmas.
1. Air Conditioners – doesn’t this make hella sense? Like, it’s hot as hell over there. And there are sandstorms and shit. I don’t know about you, but if I was living in some 135 degree heat with sand going down my clothes and butt-cheeks all the time, I’d want to blow myself up too. Air conditioners! I’m telling you, t! hey make life worth living.

2. Marijuana (Kind Bud) – I believe it was Lincoln who said Americans should have a ‘turkey in every pot.’ Well, I think Iraqis should have ‘pot in every house.’ Weed. It’s calming. I don’t know about you, but personally, if it wasn’t for the soothing cannabis plant, I would’nt be able to function like a sane human being either. So we should definitely send the Iraqis some weed. But not just any weed. We need to make sure they get tons and tons of the good stuff. That’s right. I’m talking kind bud. Cause shitty weed just pisses you off. Things’re so messed up in Iraq, only the strongest Mary Jane will work. Seriously. It clears your head out and puts you at peace with the world. If you’ve never smoked weed before, just trust me on this, kind bud for Iraq. It’ll work.
3. Pizza Hut – another problem they got over there is people are starving. I think. I mean, I’m pretty sure they got food problems. They ! live in the desert? They’re starving. And starving people tend to get pissed off easy. I should know, it happens to me all the time. And there’s only one thing that saves me when I’m starving and pissed. Pizza Hut! All we have to do is install about 200 Pizza Huts all over Iraq, and in the future, instead of attacking a UN food convoy, all Iraqis will have to do is pick up the phone and order a ‘Meat Lovers’ pizza!
4. Xbox 360’s – but as awesome as it would be for Iraqis to get high off some killer kind bud and eat some Pizza Hut, it would suck if they then had nothing to do. No entertainment. That wouldn’t be good. We’d end up with wicked high Iraqis blowing themselves up just looking for some fun. So that’s another big problem for Iraq. But hey, this new Xbox 360 game system looks sweet as hell. I say, give every Iraqi an Xbox 360, and they’ll be too busy blowing shit up (virtually) to blow shit up in the real world.
5. Controller Port/Extra Controllers – however, as fun as the Xbox 360 is, it sucks if you only have one controller. Because then only one person can play! So, we need to teach Iraqis to share. Otherwise, the shortage of Xbox 360’s and their controllers could lead to anger, tramplings, decapitations, or worse. So, I think, as long as we’re giving Iraqis Xboxes, we should give them extra controllers and controller ports, so all the Imams can play and no one will have to get pissed off. We should also make sure to resupply them new controllers as they wear out. We don’t want Iraqis having to argue over who has to use the shitty controller.
6. Madden 2006 – and as long as Iraqis are going to be playing Xbox 360, I think they should all be given America’s favorite sport in videogame form, Madden 2006. The NFL! It’s great! You can take out all your anger out on opposing teams. I guarantee this much: Give a 16-year-old Sunni the choice between killing hims! elf and spending his life playing videogame football, and he’ll make the right choice every time.
7. Marsh Mellows – Ok. Um, I kind of had trouble getting all the way to ten, but I also do think Marsh Mellows could do some good in Iraq. Think about it. They’re soft. White. Just like Americans! Iraqis could deal with their anger with Americans by eating Marsh Mellows. Or they could roast us on an open fire! And let us melt in their mouth with some Graham crackers and chocolate. In any case, it would make a good desert for them, after all, let’s not forget, they’re all stoned our of their minds bro.
8. Budweiser – the king of beers would add a touch of class to Iraq. I know they’re not supposed to drink, cause they’re all Muslim, but, c’mon. Maybe that’s part of the problem. They need to loosen up some, and I say we loosen’em. Just send some American fraternity brothers over there, and supply them with an endless amount of B! udweiser. They’ll peer pressure those Iraqis into taking beer bongs and keg-stands, and before you know it Iraqis will be a bunch of happy go lucky party people. You get drunk, you loosen up, it’s awesome. It makes me want to sing.
9. Acoustic Guitars – which brings me to my next idea. How about we send Iraq a whole bunch of guitars, and like, teach them how to play Beatles songs? Then, not only would they be stoned, drunk, well-fed, and well-entertained, they’d also be singing happy songs of love and peace! Imagine.
10. Whores – The final piece of the happiness puzzle. Add a good group of whores to the lineup of pleasures I’ve laid out, and you’ll see those suicide bombings drop pretty damn fast. Who needs 70 virgins in Heaven when you’ve already got 4 slutty wenches in the room just raring to go?
So there it is. My ideas for bringing peace to Iraq by Christmas. Mail this list to your Congressman or Senator, and ! let’s get this shit solved and bring the troops home already. Cause seriously, my best bud Nick is over there, and he says it sucks so much it’s ri-goddamn-diculous.

Who is their liaison with their Syrian shelterers?

IIRC, the Syrian and Iraqi Baathists were enemies. I don’t know if that’s changed, but I wouldn’t assume that the Syrian connection is Baathist or just a function of a vast sandy border.
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The Syrian and Iraqi Ba’athists may have been enemies at one time, but they certainly had a solid business partnership during the nineties, evading the sanctions regime by selling Iraqi oil under Syrian cover.

Well, if that’s how we draw our circle of contacts, you’ll have to throw Texas into the mix, too.

And the Syrians had no trouble ending their shelter of PKK terrorists, once the Turkish government threatened them with severe enough consequences if they didn’t.

One more reason the Iraqis weren’t happy with the Syrians, yes.

Currently, the ease with which insurgents pour across the border from Syria into Iraq bespeaks something quite a bit less innocent than mere overstretched resources.

Or the lack of any reason to divert resources to address what are actually American concerns.
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Really? The government of Texas was smuggling oil out of Iraq, selling it as Texan, and splitting the proceeds with Saddam Hussein? I had no idea….

No. A Texas company was on the take in the Oil for Food fraud and they were protected by an American senator. So actually … yes, in a way.

You mean the Iraqis weren’t happy with the Syrians because they were sheltering the PKK, or because they stopped? Frankly, neither one makes the slightest sense to me.

That’s nice. But I can’t imagine the sheltering of a Kurdish terrorist group went over particularly well in Baghdad, considering their stated goal of an independent Kurdistan.

The presence of a large, organized force of radical Sunni terrorists on Syrian soil would, ceteris paribus, be an enormous threat to the secular, Alawi-dominated government of Syria.

Why now? The political calculus has certainly changed since 1982. Syria doesn’t need to spend domestic political capital doing anything meaningful against them, and Syria isn’t likely to gain any international capital by doing so, either. So your characterization of their passive aggressiveness as “something quite a bit less innocent” is an utter non sequitur.
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A Texas company was on the take in the Oil for Food fraud and they were protected by an American senator.

Never heard the story, but assuming it’s true, are you claiming that the company in question and Ba’athist Iraq were “enemies”, as you claimed about Ba’athist Iraq and Ba’athist Syria?

That’s nice. But I can’t imagine the sheltering of a Kurdish terrorist group went over particularly well in Baghdad, considering their stated goal of an independent Kurdistan.

Syria has a (somewhat restive) Kurdish minority as well, as a matter of fact. Part of the deal in this sort of arrangement is that you require the “nationalist” movement’s nationalism to be somewhat selective. The PKK strictly targeted Turkey, not Syria (its sponsor), nor Iraq (its sponsor’s business partner).

The political calculus has certainly changed since 1982.

Actually, the current relationship between Syria’s government and its Sunni majority is closer to that of 1982 than to any time since. The crushing of the Muslim Brotherhood in 1982 pretty much put paid to any Sunni hopes of resisting the elder Assad’s rule. But his son’s position today is much more precarious–his economy is a mess, his old Soviet and Iraqi Ba’athist backers are gone, and he appears to be in the process of being ignominiously chased out of Lebanon. Anti-government unrest–including Sunni unrest–is increasing, and Assad can ill afford to ignore a terrorist group operating on his soil with ample funding, international connections, a natural congeniality with Syria’s Sunni majority, and an ideological, historical and religious bone to pick with the Assads. He must already have made a sweet deal with them, or he’d be busy desperately trying to expunge them right now.

Soru: “The insurgency did very much dampen down after saddam’s capture (from 82 US combat fatalities in November 2003 to 12 in February 2004).

Nov 2003 was, IIRC, a freaky month for US fatalities. 2 or 3 helicopters carrying troops were shot down.

Do the logical quibbles in Holbo’s post, Bush’s Paradox, which follows this one, not leak into this one? Bush and his claque insist that Saddam’s capture made America safer, despite the utter absence of supporting evidence.

It’s obvious a priori that capturing Saddam made the world a safer place, the worsening of conditions in Iraq over the last two years notwithstanding.

Nov 2003 was, IIRC, a freaky month for US fatalities. 2 or 3 helicopters carrying troops were shot down.

Posted by Barry

Quiet, Barry. Soru’s trying to use an outlier to prop up a post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy. It’s a very tricky business.

Shhhhh!
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We thought Japan would surrender when they realized they couldn’t win. Instead the war grinded on from the decisive turning point at Midway 6 months after Pearl Harbor till August of 1945. The Japanese thought we would quit if they hit us hard enough. Better understanding of the Japanese on our part might have shortened the war, but better understanding of America by the Japanese would have avoided it completely. All the Arab countries combined have translated fewer books into Arabic than Portugal translates into Portugese. The middle east is filled with people who believe what the anti-Americans all over the world feed them. We have a long road ahead of us and no guarrantee we will win, but America losing to radical Islam is worse than a Republican in the White House.