It’s not every morning I’m sipping my coffee, click onto BBC news, and the first thing out of my mouth is “oh, f**k!”. Absent any deep analysis, it is just horribly, horribly worrying that Russia has invaded South Ossetia. We can spend any amount of time on the rights and wrongs of it, and whether the Saakashvili has brought this on himself. But as the news is filtering in, I have a couple of very superficial observations to make.
The current level of hostility has been bubbling towards the boil all year, but I truly thought the Russians would wait for a more obvious excuse to send the tanks in. But why wait when you can slip quietly into an obscure part of the Caucasus on the monster news day that follows the Olympics opening ceremony?
A couple of weeks ago, Russian planes were blatantly flying over Ossetia and the Georgians sent in more of their troops. The Western powers called for restraint. Fat chance. Russia claims to be protecting the Russian minority in Ossetia, but really wants to show the Georgians who’s boss. ‘Restraint’ may be appropriate with two equally sized belligerents. It’s irrelevant when you’re sleeping beside someone big enough to roll over and crush you without waking up. I can’t help thinking that if we’d heard a bit less about restraint, and a bit more to remind Russia that joining the international system means you have be a less obvious playground bully, Putin might have thought twice before he sent the tanks in.
Another observation, this is part of the long pay-back for Kosovo. When Russia was strong-armed on the UN Security Council into accepting Kosovan independence, they made it clear that the precedent would ring out in the Caucasus and indeed any where else the Russians want to destabilize. Again, the rights and wrongs of springing Kosovo free of the Serbs can be argued, and so can the means of doing it. But the outcome is that Russia believes it has a free hand to prop up Russian or other minority nationalities anywhere geopolitically convenient within its Near Abroad.
Finally, to NATO. Georgia’s application was recently put on ice, but not placed sufficiently in the deep freeze to placate Moscow. NATO’s failure to either fully accept Georgia into the family or to expel it into Russia’s brawny arms may have created the moment and the motive for Russia to move. Russia was just as offended by the extended promise of membership to Georgia as it would have been by the real thing, but Georgia was effectively left to fend for itself.
Saakashvili has not played a smart game, that’s for sure. Perhaps thinking the west would stand behind him, or just trying to distract attention from his government’s unpopularity, he has willfully provoked Moscow whenever he had the chance. But here’s the thing; wanting to join NATO is not a provocation. As Russia’s actions have clearly shown, joining NATO was the only sensible thing to do.
*Update* A far more thoughtful piece about the invasion is at commentisfree, though the comments are pretty depressing. If anyone wants to reference a piece explaining things from the Russian point of view (that does more than the recently deleted comment “U ARE A US STOOGE. GEORGIAN ARE WRONG AND STALIN WAS GEORGIAN ANYWAY” etc.), please go ahead and I’ll be happy to link to it.
*Update 2* In that vein, Robert Farley at Lawyers, Guns and Money is worth a look. My cousin Daragh McDowell has a far more knowledgeable take than mine on today’s developments. Also, Daragh points to an excellent backgrounder on Ossetia that the redoubtable Doug Merrill posted back in March. Doug is based in Tbilisi as of last week and posted this morning. Le Monde is practically live-blogging.
*Comments closed*
{ 139 comments }
Rob 08.08.08 at 4:38 pm
I don’t want to become the left blogosphere’s Russian apologist, but it was the Georgians who, yesterday, were bombarding the capitol of South Ossetia and demanding that the civilian population abandon the city. Given that, I’m not sure what more “obvious excuse” there could be for the Russians to send the tanks in; the Georgians (as implied by statements from Georgian military officers) seem to have been inclined to solve the South Ossetia problem once and for all. In particular:
The commander of Georgian peacekeepers in South Ossetia, Mamuka Kurashvili, told Georgian television: “We are forced to restore constitutional order in the whole region.”
So yeah, I’m pretty happy to conclude that, right or wrong, the Georgians have brought this upon themselves.
MattF 08.08.08 at 4:46 pm
OK, the Georgians are guilty of very bad behavior– But this is hardly a surprise; nationalities in that region aren’t known for their peaceable ways and cool collective judgment. The Russians, as ever, only had to be patient and opportunistic. So, now what?
qingl78 08.08.08 at 4:52 pm
So, if Georgia were members of NATO then they could invoke their Charter 5 rights and NATO would be at war with Russia. Is this what you are saying? And if so, this would make the situation better?
Given Georgia’s behaviour I’m glad that they aren’t part of NATO and I hope that they never are.
Maria 08.08.08 at 5:27 pm
3 – I think the rather obvious point is that had Georgia been a member of NATO, Russia would not have invaded.
noen 08.08.08 at 5:28 pm
I can’t help thinking that if we’d heard a bit less about restraint, and a bit more to remind Russia that joining the international system means you have be a less obvious playground bully
Like the U.S.?
D. Pasechnik 08.08.08 at 5:31 pm
Just let me point out that the majority of the population of South Ossetia are Russian citizens, so Russia protects its them. It’s not a “minority”.
Tshinvali is almost exclusively populated by Russian citizens. Tell us how USA would react if a large town populated by US citizens was heavily bombarded?
All right, yes, of course, it begs the question how it has came that far, and of course it smells of a territorial expansion. On the other hand, large chunks of USA soils were Mexican at some point, weren’t they?
Katherine 08.08.08 at 5:39 pm
Rob, if by the “Georgians” you mean the Georgian government, then you may have a point. But the people – ie the civilians – who are now going to die didn’t bring it on themselves at all. They just get to die.
Let’s not forget the actual dead bodies in all this political analysis, hey?
sakra 08.08.08 at 5:41 pm
Before described development, Georgia’s night bombing caused multiple (reported 1400+) victims in the civilian population in South Ossetia and peacekeeping forces. The majority of the South Ossetia people are Russian Federation citizens.
It’s shame Russian troops are introduced that late..
qingl78 08.08.08 at 6:00 pm
So you are saying that if Georgia was a member of NATO then it could feel that it could do as it pleased and be more belligerent, more violent and less prone to negotiation because the rest of NATO would come to its rescue. Great.
I stand by my original statements.
Rob 08.08.08 at 6:03 pm
qingl78 makes a critical point; allowing Georgia into NATO would not have resolved either the South Ossetia or Abkhazia crisis. Rather, it would quite likely have given the Georgians confidence to undertake a military solution to both problems, which would have involved invasion, bombing, etc.
franck 08.08.08 at 6:06 pm
Rob here is imputing action to only one side of the dispute. The Georgian armed forces are not the only people to have used violence recently. There has been low-level violence between the Georgian armed forces and the South Ossetian forces (supported by the Russian military) for the past week or so at least.
The problem here is precisely one of asymmetry.
South Ossetia is a very small place, population wise. 70,000 people, some of whom identify with the Georgian state and have nothing to do with the separatist government supported by Russia.
Georgia, if given a free hand, could easily overwhelm the place and did in fact do that early today.
The problem, of course, is that Russia similarly can easily overwhelm Georgia. It remains to be seen exactly how far Russia will go to rescue the South Ossetians, but the introduction of a tank column through the mountain tunnel into what is still internationally recognized as Georgian territory is a significant escalation of the conflict, as are Russian aircraft bombing areas in Georgia proper.
Russia seems to view Georgia as something less than a fully independent country able to make its own defense and treaty decisions. If Russian troops cross into Georgia proper or Russian air power continues to bombard Georgia proper, then what we have is a full scale war between Russia and Georgia, initiated by Russia.
franck 08.08.08 at 6:09 pm
I would add one more thing. Small countries bordering larger countries with imperial designs and/or unresolved territorial ambitions tend to suck the international order into destructive wars, completely out of proportion to the original dispute. So it isn’t as simple as deciding Georgia should be kept out of NATO to appease the Russians. The Russians also have a problem with the Baltic states in NATO, with Ukraine joining NATO, and even with Poland being in NATO. There’s no clear dividing line at which one can say, this far and no farther.
It’s really up to Russia, as by far the strongest power in the region, to decide how long this will go on, how many people will die, and what price a quasi-independent South Ossetia is worth to it.
Maynard Handley 08.08.08 at 6:17 pm
Katherine says “But the people – ie the civilians – who are now going to die didn’t bring it on themselves at all. They just get to die.”
Do you know this for a fact? Contrary to the wishes of you and me, most people in the world are, in fact, pretty damn jingoistic; quite willing to talk up a storm at least until the point when the shooting starts, at which it’s all suddenly someone else’s fault.
virgil xenophon 08.08.08 at 6:36 pm
Maynard Handley is right, you know. The phrase “54-40 or Fight!” (to use one example) didn’t spring from the mouths of the elites, but from the common citizens of the region–admittedly egged on by their more expansionist brethren back in D.C.–who had a very local ax to grind.
Dave 08.08.08 at 6:38 pm
@11: yeah, all those gung-ho kindergarteners, just itching to sink their plastic cutlery into the twitching corpses of their enemies; twinkly-eyed babushkas with AKs under their aprons; eight-year-old girls whose main ambition in life is to slit the throats of other girls just like them born the wrong side of a line on the map.
You can bet your ass that the f*ckers responsible for starting this won’t be the ones digging the charred corpses of their children out from under the rubble of their houses.
Nikolay 08.08.08 at 6:39 pm
“But the people – ie the civilians – who are now going to die didn’t bring it on themselves at all. They just get to die”
OK, but so far the number of the civilian victims _of_ Georgia seems to be much bigger than the number of Georgian civilian victims. Like, South Ossetian’s capital is pretty much destroyed — including schools, university, hospital.
roac 08.08.08 at 6:52 pm
The phrase “54-40 or Fight!†(to use one example) didn’t spring from the mouths of the elites, but from the common citizens of the region
Not a particularly good example, given that (1) the “common citizens” of the Oregon Territory at the time were almost all Indians who were due to be screwed over either way, and (2) the US didn’t get 54-40, and didn’t fight either.
axar 08.08.08 at 6:56 pm
I want to point out a few points, seemgly ignored in this conversation:
a. We all know Russia is supporting South Ossetia. Dont forget thou that Georgia’s military machine is funded by USA tax dollars. It has the largest military budget in the region, even thou it has the worst economy. US spends 10’s of millions in military aid, military equipment and training personnel every year.
b. Saakashvilli is a tyrant to his own people, with methodologies along the lines of Sadaam or Stalin(also Georgian). A few month back Georgian troops fired on un armed Georgian citizens protesting corruption and fixed elections. It is clear he has no care for human life. This escapade is to point the attention away from his bad internal policies and displace it on innocent people.
c. Georgian and Ossetian people like each other, have similar customs and many mixed family members. The common Georgians have nothing to gain from taking of S. Ossetia. No one wants another Gaza strip. In the end this is not about Georgia and South Ossetia, they are pawns. Its about Russian and USA controlling the central asian plataeu and the natural resources around it.
Steve LaBonne 08.08.08 at 7:00 pm
I’m with you. That’s basically all I’m thinking about when I hear shitty news like this. The Saakashvilis and Putins- like the Cheneys- will die in bed.
Makes me wish I believed in Hell.
Daniel Nexon 08.08.08 at 7:18 pm
4 – But if Georgia were unequivocally on its way to NATO membership, you can bet the Russians might very well have invaded or (more likely) have sponsored a coup.
Anyway, there’s plenty of blame to go around.
Alex 08.08.08 at 7:55 pm
Before beliving in “fake news” try to figure out what S. Ossetia is. It is not Geogria. And 1400 civilians killed in S. Ossetia by Georgians. 90% of civilians in S. Ossetia has russian passports. And when Russian civilians are killed – Russia must save them. Thats what happening. Find more videos and you will see it for yourself.
axar 08.08.08 at 7:58 pm
Please read my analysis, I think we get one sided picture in the media:
http://digg.com/world_news/USA_judgment_clouded_again_due_to_foreign_energy_dependence
Kieran Healy 08.08.08 at 8:17 pm
Just a note to the new arrivals: abusive comments, anti-Semitic language or other such garbage will be deleted from the thread without hesitation, or will not make it out of the moderation queue in the first place.
franck 08.08.08 at 8:21 pm
I was wondering when the Russian apologists would show up.
axar, Russia is in the region and I think we can comfortably say that Russia has a much larger military budget than Georgia. There are 70,000 people in South Ossetia, and not all of them support the separatists. There is no way that they could maintain an effective military force without the full support of Russia. If Saakashvili is a new Stalin, why would Russia have a problem with that? Stalin is a hugely popular figure in Russia, and Putin openly mourns for the breakup of the Soviet Union.
Alex, so Russia reserves the right to invade any country when Russia citizens are killed? So, was Russia going to invade the US after September 11? Are they going to invade Estonia if a Russian gets knifed in a bar?
Hidari 08.08.08 at 8:58 pm
From the Wikipedia, entry on South Ossetia.
‘On August 8, 2008, at the same time as the 2008 Olympics were officially started, Georgia military forces began hostilities against South Ossetia’s forces in an attempt to re-establish control over the region. The hostilities resulted in the deaths of Russian forces serving as peacekeepers in the region and other South Ossetia civilians. In response, Russian forces moved into South Ossetia and began combat operations against Georgian military forces.’
Alexander Kozlovsky 08.08.08 at 9:01 pm
franck: About 1400 Osetian civilians (of 70,000 total) have been killed during Georgia`s attacks on the capital of South Ossetia, most of them were Russian citizens. It is not just somebody get knifed in a bar, it is start of genocide. If they were US citizens instead of Russia, do you think US reaction was peaceful? (sorry for my bad English)
Roman 08.08.08 at 9:01 pm
“Stalin is a hugely popular figure in Russia” where did you get that? Absolute majority of Russian despise Stalin and the crimes committed by his regime. And since he was Georgian, this might give you some insight into one of the reasons why many Russians are eager to jump into any anti-Georgian bandwagon. When millions of your kin were intentionally wiped out by the Georgian dictator (I refer to Stalin here), you will pass on this memory for generations in your subconsciousness.
Hidari 08.08.08 at 9:02 pm
Also from the Wikipedia, on Georgia:
‘Since coming to power in 2004, Saakashvili has boosted spending on the country’s armed forces and increased its overall size to around 45,000. Of that figure, 12,000 have been trained in advanced techniques by U.S. military instructors.[26] Some of these troops have been stationed in Iraq as part of the international coalition in the region, serving in Baqubah and the Green Zone of Baghdad. In May 2005, the 13th “Shavnabada” Light Infantry Battalion became the first full battalion to serve outside of Georgia. This unit was responsible for two checkpoints to the Green Zone, and provided security for the Iraqi Parliament. In October 2005, the unit was replaced by the 21st Infantry Battalion. Soldiers of the 13th “Shavnabada” Light Infantry Battalion wear the “combat patches” of the American unit they served under, the Third Infantry Division.’
virgil xenophon 08.08.08 at 9:07 pm
roac: Oh, you’re right about the Indians all right; I was simply talking about voiced passions and sentiments , not the eventual outcome.
Nikolay 08.08.08 at 9:08 pm
Well, according to the unrecognized referendum, majority of them do (although, given the fact that the official number was 99% of Ossetians backing secession, that doesn’t sound _very_ plausible)
Well, there’s a little difference here. The number of civilian victims is allegedly about 1.500, which is like half of September 11 victims, and also _3%_ of the whole population of South Ossetia. It’s likes someone killed 10 millions Amercians in a single night — do you think it would make sense to compare it to knife fight. If Estonia executed 10 thousands Russians in a single day, I’m pretty sure Russia would intervene.
Actually, it’s all quite simple. Saakashvili is not different from Putin at all. He doesn’t care for democracy, he doesn’t care for the freedom of press, he doesn’t care for the lives of the people, he doesn’t care for anything but his power. So it’s just two unscrupulous politicians killing people for their political goals, nothing more, nothing less.
franck 08.08.08 at 9:21 pm
Nikolay,
I know this might be hard to understand, but not everyone living in South Ossetia is Ossetian (there are many Georgians and Georgian-dominated villages all mixed up with the Ossetians), and not all Ossetians support the separatist government. There is an Ossetian-led government that recognizes Georgian sovereignty over the area and controls some 20% or so of South Ossetia.
There is no way to independently verify the number of casualties. It is in the interests of the separatist government to overstate the casualties and in the interest of the Georgian government to understate them. The figure of 1400 comes from the separatist government and could even be right, but we have no idea and no way to tell.
If both of them are the same, then there’s no reason to support Russia unless you are Russian. Since Russia is determined to oppose other countries and invade its neighbors, even if the two leaders are exactly the same (which I don’t agree with), it’s very much in the interest of other world powers and Russia’s neighbors to oppose it.
Russian Citizen 08.08.08 at 9:26 pm
South Ossetia situation was planned and implemented by USA, it is loud and clear. Georgia started this act to involve Russian troops in this conflict right at the time of Olympic games, this is clearly act of rot provocation and attempt of USA to make Russia look like aggressor in Chinese eyes. Don’t trust USA, dont’ trust Georgia. Russian troops are there to stop kills of Russian citizens – there are 90% of russian citizens in South Ossetia. So is Russia and aggressor? NO NO NO, Russia wants to stop bloodshed and keep peace.
ANDREY FROM RUSSIA 08.08.08 at 9:53 pm
Do not mislead itself looking news. Recollect the Balkans. Look the Russian news sites in a counterbalance yours.
karan 08.08.08 at 9:55 pm
Regardless of the convoluted ethno-political situation on the ground, and the associated confusion, I think one thing is incontrovertible: the OP has misinterpreted the facts and jumped to a heated and misguided conclusion. Russia did not invade S. Ossetia under cover of the Olympics, Georgia did (that Russia is simply using Georgian action as an excuse to further its own goals is another point altogether). What is more interesting is that the OP apparently gained their opposite impression from watching news coverage of the story. However unfortunate that might be, I believe that some sort of acknowledgement of the mistake or an update to the original post is in order. As it stands the piece simply adds to the overall confusion. Thank you kindly.
pangloss 08.08.08 at 9:56 pm
For some reason I’m cheering for Russia and South Ossetia patriots and hope neither is militarily embarrassed in this mess. Likely because it would be good to see NATO actually try to figure out what the f%^& they are for now. Are they desert rats or what or what or what. Are they only US mercenaries? Likely yes to the last wondering, eh.
Maria 08.08.08 at 9:58 pm
Right, Pangloss. Because it’s all for the best in the best of all possible worlds, eh?
Nikolay 08.08.08 at 10:02 pm
Well, I’m Russian, so it’s kinda my patriotic duty to defend Russian actions, even though I hate it very much.
It’s certainly natural for US and Europe to support Saakashvili over Putin from the geopolitical points of view, but you have to really understand what you’re buying here. He likes to talk all the BS about “civilized world”, “freedom-loving country”, “common values” etc., but he in fact has no qualms about shutting down TV stations, putting his opponents into prisons etc. He’s also very likely to have killed a major opposition leader in London.
If he turns into a full-fledged Saddam, you’re likely to be embarrassed a little, aren’t you? Just as people who supported Chechen’s fight for independence were kinda embarrassed when Chechens started killing little babies on a big scale.
On the second thought, I don’t understand your point about supporting Georgia. Given the fact that both Saakashvili and Putin are two jingoistic bastards, why is it in the interest of the West to support Saakashili? What does the West gain by being dragged into the military conflict by this particular lying bastard? I’d say that the right thing for the sane countries to do is to try to curb ambitions of both sides of the conflict.
Righteous Bubba 08.08.08 at 10:04 pm
If he turns into a full-fledged Saddam, you’re likely to be embarrassed a little, aren’t you?
History suggests otherwise.
pangloss 08.08.08 at 10:05 pm
Yes Maria. I think I’m sorry to say.
christian h. 08.08.08 at 10:08 pm
So let me get this straight:
Serb security forces murder some dozens of Kosovars, in response to KLA terrorism: that justifies weeks of bombing troops, infrastructure, TV stations by NATO. Eventually, Kosovo gains independence.
US-trained Georgian troops invade South Ossetia, kill at least hundreds: Russia is supposed to say out of it. South Ossetians will probably end up refugees, applauded by the West.
Doesn’t make sense to me.
Hidari 08.08.08 at 10:14 pm
From the Guardian article:
‘Russia’s behaviour is incompatible with its aspirations to be a respected world power. Indeed, thoughtful people will find parallels between this and earlier incidents of Russian land seizures when it thought people were looking elsewhere. – the Baltic crisis of 1939, Finland, and post-second world war Iran come to mind.’.
(emphasis added).
christian h. 08.08.08 at 10:15 pm
Sorry, I just saw that Maria actually calls that Comment is Free piece “thoughtful”. Right. Because the headline is eminently reasonable – at least if you are used to Russia-bashing from the cold war. Geez. I am not saying Russia is right in this case – I am quite certain they have meddled in Georgia for a long time knowing full well this might be the result – but the hypocrisy on the liberal “left” is staggering.
In fact, these last few weeks have shown up liberal hypocrisy repeatedly. Bashir and the ICC, Karadzic, now South Ossetia – when it really comes down to it, we see liberals fall all over themselves to agree with Rice, Straw & Cie.
TrZ 08.08.08 at 10:18 pm
Alexander Kozlovsky: About 1400 Osetian civilians (of 70,000 total) have been killed during Georgia`s attacks
… at least according to Russian sources. You know what I mean.
Roman: Absolute majority of Russian despise Stalin
So, Russians despise Stalin so much that are ready to vote him in the top of Name of Russia contest, where he was #1 for a long time. Funny, isn’t it.
Boris 08.08.08 at 10:26 pm
Congragulations =)
your post was show on russian TV.
Saakashvili play bad game, provocate Russia to conflict in cost of many civilians lives – that’s sure
TrZ 08.08.08 at 10:28 pm
By the way, Kremlin apologetists, if Russia is innocent and only wanted to protect its citizens and peacekeepers in the attacked S.Ossetia (or rather “peacekeepers” – funny, a certain Cheslav Mlinnik, a former Riga OMON commander, wanted for his role in a number of attacks and killings in the Baltics in 1990-91, holds a post in the security forces of Abkhazia, another break-away region of Georgia, full of Russian “peacekeepers”…), why do Russian aircraft, as reported by CNN, bomb Tbilisi and Poti, which are way out of S.Ossetia?
Hidari 08.08.08 at 10:28 pm
Jesus. I know that when American interests are threatened we ‘liberals’ all suddenly realise that Hitler had a point about the subhuman Slavs, but at least get your facts right. The Name of Russia ‘contest’ allows for multiple voting, and its worth as a measure of what Russians think about Stalin is absolutely and precisely zero.
I might add that in the British version (doubtless equally valueless) position number ten was held by that great democrat and friend of the Irish Oliver Cromwell.
ANDREY FROM RUSSIA 08.08.08 at 10:29 pm
To all Russia now on the largest news television channel(VESTI) have shown Maria’s first remark in our discussion.
ANDREY FROM RUSSIA 08.08.08 at 10:35 pm
The representative of Russia in the United Nations has demanded to begin with will apologise Georgia for murder of civilians and city destruction.
IT TO BEGIN WITH….
christian h. 08.08.08 at 10:40 pm
TrZ, I’m sure you objected strenuously to the bombardment of Belgrade in 1999. After all, no-one could claim that Belgrade is in Kosovo, right? So why bomb it if the whole thing was about protecting the Kosovars?
See, it’s easy. Personally, I stick with “neither Washington nor Moscow”. I don’t make excuses for the Kremlin or the White House.
But somehow, I have the impression that most of the people now being outraged – outraged – about this Russian violation of Georgia’s sovereign borders are the same people who applauded the bombing in ’99, and are still making excuses for it.
christian h. 08.08.08 at 10:51 pm
By the way, TrZ, it is somewhat fishy to denigrate the claims of over a thousand North Ossetian civilians killed because they come from Russian sources, but then state as fact that Russia bombed Tbilisi, a Georgian claim apparently denied by the Russians.
Anony 08.08.08 at 11:01 pm
“It’s certainly natural for US and Europe to support Saakashvili over Putin from the geopolitical points of view, but you have to really understand what you’re buying here. He likes to talk all the BS about “civilized worldâ€, “freedom-loving countryâ€, “common values†etc., but he in fact has no qualms about shutting down TV stations, putting his opponents into prisons etc. He’s also very likely to have killed a major opposition leader in London.”
It is interesting to me that, at first, I could not tell whether the writer was referring to Putin or Saakashvili…
will u. 08.08.08 at 11:06 pm
These Caucasian frozen conflicts are best left in the icebox, for just resolutions are unlikely so long as they remain contests between rival power blocs.
My immediate impression is that Saakashvili has done the most to pull this one out. I’m really skeptical that Russian moves towards de jure recognition of South Ossetian independence supply just cause for invasion, which — as we should have learned from the Iraq war — requires absolutely ironclad justification. Far from being forced into this act, Saakashvili is making a high stakes bet.. one I’m pretty sure he’ll lose, if he hasn’t already.
abb1 08.08.08 at 11:09 pm
Kavkaz is a delicate thing…
Nikolay 08.08.08 at 11:10 pm
Well, as I said, there’s not much difference between them, besides the fact that Saakashvili is somewhat hotheaded, while Putin is very level-headed. But on the moral level they are the same.
ANDREY FROM RUSSIA 08.08.08 at 11:22 pm
It is enough to argue on that of that you do not know. Come to live to Russia and we will look as your consciousness and a sight at the world in general will change. You will understand that the greatest freedom now in Russia.
ANDREY FROM RUSSIA 08.08.08 at 11:24 pm
Not only freedom but also the truth. And at whom the truth that is stronger
ANDREY FROM RUSSIA 08.08.08 at 11:33 pm
«Russia wages with us war in our own territory, — the Georgian leader in interview CNN said. — Now it any more only business of Georgia. This encroachment to America, on its value, — was declared by him. — we — the freedom-loving nation, and our freedom now under blow». Cohen’s answer was very simple: Washington cannot be got involved in war on other continent for that simple reason that Georgia is not a member of the NATO. «We have supported the introduction of Georgia into the North Atlantic alliance but if they were members of the military block today we would appear in a situation when according to the fifth chapter of the charter of the NATO we would be obliged to protect Georgia from Russia», — with alarm he has noticed, having specified that for the USA «here on a card much is put». Therefore in the circumstances, in its opinion, cold heads should gain top. «It is very explosive situation», — the ex-minister has specified.« The international community should operate very quickly that it has not got out of hand », — Cohen which words quotes RIA Novosti news agency has underlined.
Nikolay 08.08.08 at 11:36 pm
Andrey, don’t be so pathetic. Shutting down newspapers and TV stations, manipulating votes, prosecuting people for exercising free speech are not things that happen in a free country.
franck 08.09.08 at 1:08 am
Nikolay,
The reason to oppose Russia in this matter is not because Saakashvili is some amazingly moral or humane person. The reason to oppose Russia is because it shouldn’t feel like it can annex bits of its neighbors arbitrarily and subvert the sovereignty of all its neighbors. Russia is a bully relative to all its neighbors and is one of the few countries actively trying to change borders all around it. That kind of behavior is enormously destabilizing and is likely to lead to a lot of suffering, as we are seeing today. Even if you don’t think Russia caused this flare-up, it would not have happened without Russia’s involvement. If Russia succeeds in this action, it will try it in Abkhazia, in Transdinestra, in Crimea, in the Baltics, maybe even in the parts of Finland or Poland it didn’t gain in its aggressive war in ’39 and ’40.
Lena 08.09.08 at 1:16 am
Oh MY GOD!!!
What invasion are you speaking about?!?!
Poor Georgia, attacked by malicious Russians – what a nonsence!!!
Georgians have turned the whole city, and several villages into RUINS in ONE NIGHT!!!!
THAT is the most important thing here!!! Why do we speak about Stalin or Putin or whoever!
Goran 08.09.08 at 1:32 am
there is a huge possibility that a full out war between Russia and Georgia is on the way, its sad to see such close nations which are both Orthodox go to war and lose thousands and thousands of young boys for the sake of something that is so not worth it, Georgia has suffered enough, 20 000 Georgians died in the early 90’s, most of them were civilians, last thing Georgia needs right now is another war, Russia should not commit itself to go to war with Georgia, not only will spark a total chain of conflicts in whole of Caucasus, it will put the whole region in disaray, Russia has just ‘given’ 2 islands to China, but it tries so hard to bully such a small country like Georgia for a region like South Ossetia which is nothing more than a tiny town with only 30 000 residents, they should sit down and think hard if this is all worth it.
Maynard Handley 08.09.08 at 1:37 am
Nikolay, one could equally retort for you to not be so pathetic.
It does no-one any good to divide the world into some sort of manichean “free” and “non-free” countries. There are degrees in all these matters.
The US is pretty good in terms of not limiting free speech, but it’s pretty gung-ho about throwing people into prison without a trial; and the civil asset forfeiture laws look like something from the Middle Ages.
The UK has way too harsh libel laws, but, as far as I can tell, a whole lot less vote-stealing than the US. Also, as far as I can tell, their powers to throw random people in prison are limited to what, a month, rather than being indefinite.
And so it goes, and so it goes. I can’t imagine you’d find a single country on earth that perfectly matches what most of us would think of as the ideal free country. Meanwhile, if Andrey wants to claim that right now is the freest Russia has ever been, well, he lives there and I don’t, and the claim is not so outrageous as to be dismissed out of hand. And that IS all he claimed by my parsing of his English; not that Russia was the freest society on earth, merely that it was currently the freest it has ever been.
Certainly the great Iraq and Afghanistan experiments should make it clear that going from “dictatorship” to “freedom” overnight is not necessarily such a good idea, and if takes Russia three generations to get there, well that’s about standard for every other country in the world. Complain, sure, about evil things that are done there, but also acknowledge the larger pattern.
Randy McDonald 08.09.08 at 1:37 am
“If Russia succeeds in this action, it will try it in Abkhazia, in Transdinestra, in Crimea, in the Baltics, maybe even in the parts of Finland or Poland it didn’t gain in its aggressive war in ‘39 and ‘40.”
I strongly oppose imeprialism, I think that this war is profoundly stupid for every state concerned, but this is silly.
Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Nagorno Karabakh, and Transnistria did not come from nothing. During the breakup of the Soviet Union, these areas, populated mostly by people not belonging to the titular nationality of their putative future state broke away, with the help of Russia or Russian allies, to become an effectively independent state. Georgia, for whatever reason–I’d blame Gamsakhurdia–was particularly vulnerable to this.
Could Abkhazia or Transnistria be next? They already are, especially the first one.
Is Crimea next? No. Ukraine, most unlike Georgia, is a state that controls its territory and its borders. There has been no “Crimean Autonomous Republic” that has existed under Russian occupation in the twenty years since the civil war that stitched Ukraine apart mostly at the Dnepr/Dneiper.
The Baltics? The Baltic States are European Union member-states and NATO member-states, unlike either Ukraine or Georgia, hugely increasing the risks to Russia. Trying to do something with them would risk triggering a Europe-wide war.
Poland or Finland? Um. No. Why would Russia be so stupid as to do such a thing?
Val Wake 08.09.08 at 3:05 am
Maybe the dismemberment of the old Soviet Union wasn’t a win for the West after all. Like the Balkans it is now obvious that what the West often describes as benevolent despots are really people desparately looking for some stability. Maybe its time to rethink the whole thing. George W doesn’t have much longer to go and doesn’t even understand the simple values of common courtesy but will the new man be able to look at the whole mess afresh and decide that no nation is obliged to dictate that terms by which another country is likely to find its own solutations. This start of the old Silk Road could lead us all to another world war.
John D. 08.09.08 at 4:15 am
Let’s see.
Russia claimed that it was working to maintain its territorial integrity by opposing the Chechen seperatists with overwhelming force that resulted in uncounted civilian casualties, opposed the disintegration of a Serbian-dominated Yugoslavia because the conflict was an internal matter, has resisted the division of other countries into ethnically based entities and now they’re upset with Georgia for acting to preserve their territorial integrity against ethnic Russian seperatists.
It’s interesting to note that hypocrisy remains an international maxim of statecraft and that Russia remains a master practitioner.
Vanessa Kachadurian 08.09.08 at 4:19 am
CT policy is to delete anti-Semitic comments and ban these commenters from posting further
seth edenbaum 08.09.08 at 4:28 am
Vanessa Kachadurian 08.09.08 at 4:42 am
CT policy is to delete anti-Semitic comments and ban these commenters from posting further
Vanessa Kachadurian 08.09.08 at 4:45 am
CT policy is to delete anti-Semitic comments and ban these commenters from posting further
Alexey Ulko 08.09.08 at 4:48 am
From the viewpoint of IHL (International Humanitarian Law) a conflict between S. Ossetia and Georgia irrespective of losses and citizenship remains a non-international armed conflict where Addditional Protocol II to Geneva conventions applies. This means that theoretically armed South Ossetians should not be treated as combatants etc. Practically, they of course, are. Article 3 of the Protocol plainly prohibits ANY intervention on the territory of the sovereign state (Georgia) by any party. Russian troops in S. Ossetia turn this conflict into an international armed conflict with a different set of rules (Additional Protocol I). This is a totally different story and it opens up doors for international intervention. Yet their huge mistake was bombing Tbilisi and Poti which are OUTSIDE the territory of the local international armed conflict. Such action should be legally qualified as an act of Russian agression against Georgia. Please note that I am not talking about what is ‘fair’ or ‘justifiable’ – this is what the situation is from the legal point of view and that will be the starting point for any future analysis or action.
christian h. 08.09.08 at 5:16 am
Seth, indeed. Of course, those who warned against the perception of Saakashvili as a democrat (as opposed to simply the leader of another faction of the ruling oligarchy) were accused of being “Kremlin apologists” (that one never gets old), if not outright Russian PR flaks.
Phoenix 08.09.08 at 5:44 am
I am a citizen of Russian Federation (vykhodec from a republic Daghestan). I was in exactly to the same situation, as well as habitants of Sonth Ossetia. On us terrorists attacked from Chechni and if authorities of Russia did not interfere we cruelly would be put to death. In fact Georgian authorities this hour worse than terrorists, and Saakashvili can be compared to Usamoy Benladenom and Hitler simultaneously (they kill zhen’shin similarly, children, old men, injured and sick, which do not can khodit’.dobivayut by their shot in the head).
Russia entered troops for the rescue of peaceful habitants of Sonth Ossetia. And in Ossetia it IS not SIPARATISOV !!!!!!!!!!
Evgeni 08.09.08 at 6:11 am
6 civilians died this night under Georgian fire this night in Ossetia
abb1 08.09.08 at 6:53 am
George W Bush avenue leads to Tbilisi airport.
WTF??? What happened there? I’ve been to Georgia (Soviet republic of Georgia) many times, I always loved the place, but – sorry – that does it. Clearly ‘George W Bush avenue’ is a writing on the wall; they’ve been weighed and found wanting.
otto 08.09.08 at 7:56 am
“I think the rather obvious point is that had Georgia been a member of NATO, Russia would not have invaded.”
No — these treaty obligations yield to pragmatic decisions about whether to fulfil them or not at any point in time. I can’t see anyone in the US or UK or Germany fighting for South Ossetia no matter how many pieces of paper had been signed; if there was a real interest now, we’d be fighting for South Ossetia whether we had signed those bits of paper or not.
Vanessa Kachadurian 08.09.08 at 8:11 am
CT policy is to delete anti-Semitic comments and ban these commenters from posting further
Dave 08.09.08 at 8:13 am
I just think it’s fascinating how quickly a gang of unconditional Russian patriots can be mobilised to invade the internet as soon as some shooting starts. Not that it’s different to what unconditional American patriots do – though I doubt many of them will be trying to splurge Russian-language sites with their views.
A small piece of advice – if you really can’t see how totally f*cked-up this situation is, and how wrong both sides are [or all 3/4/however many you consider to be involved], maybe you aren’t objective enough to be worth taking seriously.
Metin 08.09.08 at 8:26 am
WHY SOUTH OSSETIA, WHY NOW?
By Peter Lavelle, August 7, 2008
http://circassianworld.blogspot.com/2008/08/why-south-ossetia-why-now.html
No comment: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bqP8gNbtMyI
Nikolay 08.09.08 at 8:33 am
Well, you don’t get it. The situation at the current moment is as much Saakashvili’s responsibility. I mean, he invades a territory that was de facto independent for 16 years and perpetrates there a genocide which, if you take into account the number of people living in that territory, is like killing 10 millions of Americans in a single day. All this on the day of the Olympic opening ceremony. Was he provoked? Yes, he certainly was. But this still doesn’t change the fact that at this moment he’s as much a war criminal as Radovan Karadzic.
Is it any different from what Russia did in Chechnya? No, it’s not. Is it any different from what Serbs did in Kosovo? No, it’s not.
TrZ 08.09.08 at 8:51 am
christian h.: If you think that analogies are the way to go, and considering your stance of S.Ossetia and Kosovo – I believe you applauded Russians bombing the hell out of Grozny in a bombing campaing. Nice for you.
As for evaluation of information sources, I tend to believe the reports of Tbilisi and Poti bombings not because their are Georgian, but because they are confirmed by CNN own reports. And that’s what I advise you, too, because you obviously have very little experience with “propaganda machines”.
Vanessa Kachadurian 08.09.08 at 9:02 am
CT policy is to delete anti-Semitic comments and ban these commenters from posting further
Man 08.09.08 at 9:03 am
It’s not every morning I’m sipping my coffee, watch Russian news, and the first thing out of my mouth is “oh, f**k!â€. ..
Idiots! Georgia attack yourself people! 1400 deads and u says Russia damage Georgia??? OMG u so stpd
Mikhail 08.09.08 at 9:26 am
I suppose everyone who lives out of Russia has only one point of view on events happening in South Ossetia at the moment, which is broadcast on TV channels.
I’d like you to get familiar with a russian channel, which broadcast in English, that is russiatoday(dot)com.
One has to know all the information about conflict from both points of view.
ANDREY FROM RUSSIA 08.09.08 at 10:39 am
The Russian military men find a card with a detailed plan of an attack of Georgia to Ossetia
ANDREY FROM RUSSIA 08.09.08 at 10:45 am
Russia struggles with humanitarian accident. Europe again chews American bubble gum and is silent having closed eyes
daria 08.09.08 at 10:46 am
you stupid? maybe you would ask people os southern ossetia who killed and dropped bombs on then?
yesterday 1400 of ossetins were killed by georgian army – or bbc knows better?
you better drink your coffee in the morning and let bbc pur into your emty head – but don’t make any conclusions after that – that looks horribly stupid
Oksana 08.09.08 at 11:14 am
Russia is helping the civilian population in South Ossetia, which killed Georgian troops.Media Georgia and West dezinformiruyut people. Georgia has left Russians broadcast channels, there potomuchto speak the truth.Georgian troops fired on Russian convoys with medicines and humanitarian aid for the wounded.They kill Russian population, peacekeepers. And yet called brotherly people … They liar and murderer!That the U.S. to put up to the Georgian government not to go war against obedience. The Americans are selected to Russia from all sides and borders, they are not in their lezut delo.Snachala Avganistan, Vetnam, Iraq, in the Czech Republic want to consolidate their forces, then Ukraine, Georgia. Someone apparently paid the UN that they can not still understand what they want. All the efforts of Russian representatives to draw attention to the attack on Georgia Ossetia, no one takes seriously.The voice of truth to make silent! We live next to them, we know what happens. Georgia attacked at night, without declaring war, sleeping in the city, all bombed and now accuses Russia that she allegedly guilty. But it is not so! We should help reassure Georgia and its patient on the head prezidenda Saakashvili.Lyudi help the people of Ossetia, they have nothing left except the sorrow, all the devastation of their homes and families killed or sneeze ранены.Ðе callous.
Milly 08.09.08 at 11:38 am
Ah God ..We will see the repeat of Kosovo on the Eastern.. I have say only where USA involves itself there wouldn\t be happiness Gorgian president is “amercan baby” and he doesn\t begin anything without blessing from White house.. we will see what will happend in future Russia wouldn\t watch it calm I am sure I wish all the best to Ossetian civilians ..They ned it now..
Nike 08.09.08 at 11:45 am
People, Mass-Media deceiving you. Georgia has started bombardment of their own territories and broke their promise. There’re 1400 dead civilians in South Ossetia already. Mass-Media hide the whole fact. Scenes that contain military equipment also belong to Georgia.
Metin 08.09.08 at 12:09 pm
Why South Ossetia and why now? The broader picture is of course Saakashvili’s NATO ambitions. He needs to unite his country for NATO to deliver on its promise of a MAP (Membership Action Program) to enter the Western military-political block. And Saakashvili desperately wants to have this completed by December when the alliance again meets.
Georgia is poised to invade South Ossetia because it can. But South Ossetia is not the real aim of all of this. Abkhazia is the real target. South Ossetia is a test to gauge Russia’s reaction. Once active resistance is subdued in South Ossetia, Tbilisi will taunt Abkhazia with “See, your Russian friends didn’t do much for South Ossetia, nor will they really help you. Now come to the table and surrender.†This will be a huge miscalculation. Abkhazia is not South Ossetia.
Abkhazia is stable, self-confident and even rich if investment continues. Abkhazia can also defend itself. A Georgian military operation against South Ossetia will have the opposite impact on Abkhazia – it will turn inward and cease to be part of any negotiated arrangement with Tbilisi. And it wouldn’t surprise me that Russia will draw the line – it will henceforth protect Russian citizens anywhere in the world (just like the US does today).
What will all of this lead to? South Ossetia, if invaded and occupied, will turn into a long-term headache for Tbilisi. A low-level insurgency will harass the Georgian occupiers. The South Ossetian identity will only grow. NATO will also turn its back on Saakashvili – it will not induct a new member that is domestically unstable. Abkhazia will wait it out. Maybe in another 15 years the world will finally recognize the inevitable – Abkhazia is a viable nation-state worthy of independence. I am sure the Abkhazians are more than willing to wait for this to happen. Returning to Tbilisi’s fold is simply not an option anymore.
A parting thought: Saakashvili has it all wrong. The use of force or the threat of force demonstrates just how bankrupt his vision for a united Georgia is. He wants reconciliation by use of a gun. How can one truly and honestly resolve difference when one party puts a gun to the head of the other?
I have said time and again that Tbilisi has to go the hard way to unite the country. And that way is the “demonstration effect.†Make Tbilisi controlled Georgia prosperous, safe, with a future, and not anti-Russia. When all of this really happens, the South Ossetians and Abkhazians might take a moment to reconsider their positions. Nothing succeeds like success!
To date, Saakashvili IS ONE BIG LOSER!
http://www.russiatoday.ru/employee/27
seth edenbaum 08.09.08 at 12:19 pm
The expansion of NATO was always a dangerous idea. The US should have encouraged a continued hopefully more democratic but still stable “Eastern Bloc.” Russia’s move to the right was a predictable response to US triumphalism. Putin has compared the Missile Shield a the Cuban crisis. He’s now talking about using Cuba as a refueling station, etc. etc.
Getting what you want: America should have acted to mitigate it’s status as the sole superpower. Instead the Pentagon studies world history to learn more about great empires of the past, and the government talks hypocritically about spreading democracy.
If the US had acted more wisely this might be playing out differently.
I don’t care who started this. A pox on all the houses. US, and western, moralizing under these circumstances is self-serving; and acting on it is self-defeating if not self-destructive.
And for all the US has been weakening the UN.
Chuck 08.09.08 at 1:18 pm
As an American it is obvious to me that the Georgians started this conflict. No doubt the fascist Saakashvili thought he could ethnically cleanse South Ossetia (I call him fascist because the US is fascist… and he is our ally). I do not think the US has a dog in this fight and I support the Ossetians desire for freedom and independence.
Noinin 08.09.08 at 2:00 pm
I would have thought that round about now is when we should start bombarding the White House, Downing Street, the Elysee Palace and the Chancellery with emails asking them to instruct their putative NATO allies in Georgia to withdraw their troops to allow a peacekeeping operation restore order under the leadership of the Russians but with participation from neutrals like, say, Finalnd, Ireland, India etc. While we’re all points scoring, people are dying.
You can get the South Ossetian viewpoint of the invasion here
George 08.09.08 at 2:42 pm
Meanwhile the Jews and Moslems sit back while the Christians fight with each other.
Thanks Vanessa (#66), now it’s all becoming clear.
Alex 08.09.08 at 2:42 pm
I am sorry, but are you an idiot?
Russia has not invaded Ossetia, what are you talking about? Talk to people who managed to escape from the hell that was there last night, talk to those who used to live in the place that is now turned into ruins and talk to those who lost their families there (more than a thousand people were murdered by Georgians). Ask those people, whether their land was “invaded” and who invaded it.
As for CNN – look at who wrote this article, it was written by a georgian reporter – what’d you expect her to write? “Oh, my president has a huge ego and he wants to see daddy Bush fight with bad Russians, so, after half a year of lame provocations he finally found a way to piss Moscow off. Yay to that!”
Down and Out of Sà i Gòn 08.09.08 at 3:07 pm
When it comes to Georgian or Russian aggression, I know where I stand. With the Finns.
Kieran: antisemitism detected at comment 66. Please evaluate.
Regina 08.09.08 at 3:39 pm
Why did the West support Kosovo but not South Ossetia?
Daniel Nexon 08.09.08 at 3:42 pm
Look, let’s cut through all this.
1) The Russian “peacekeepers” in South Ossetia are no such thing. They are the de facto military of the country. South Ossetia is a creation of the Russian Federation, a creation motivated by an earlier attempt to leverage Georgian domestic and foreign relations. The South Ossetians are only “Russian citizens” because the Russian Federation extended them passports. If the United States did this to a state in Mexico, the world would denounce it as a de facto annexation of Mexican territory.
2) Much of the reporting on events in South Ossetia is unreliable. The Russians and Georgians are engaged in a heavy propaganda war right now. It would serve the citizens of both countries quite well–as well as international observers–to distrust what they’re hearing and reading (Russian and Georgian partisans who have shown up here: I’m talking to you). Even the British media–usually seen as reliable–should be read with a grain of salt, as they’ve become very anti-Russian lately.
We do not know the true death toll, who is responsible, and what’s been happening.
3) These events occurred after a period of low-level fighting between the South Ossetians and the Georgians. We lack reliable information on who started it, but the Georgian attack on South Ossetia did not come out of nowhere. Whether or not you think the attack was justified (all I can say right now is that it was profoundly stupid and the deaths in South Ossetia therefore do stain the Georgian regime) was not an attempt at “genocide.”
4) Russians should ask themselves why it is legitimate for them to support South Ossetian separatists, but wasn’t legitimate for the Chechens to separate from Russia. Westerners need to ask themselves why Kosovo gets to be independent from Serbia, but why everyone must respect Georgian sovereignty over Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Everyone is drowning in a sea of double standards here.
Randy McDonald 08.09.08 at 3:42 pm
Mr. Edenbuam:
“The US should have encouraged a continued hopefully more democratic but still stable “Eastern Bloc.—
Even if the people involved didn’t want such?
Maxim 08.09.08 at 3:45 pm
Sorry for my English. I’m Russian.
There is a TV program called “Vesti” in one of Russian state TV channel. You might not to believe me, but last two days we are seeing this article in EACH release of this program. I don’t know who is telling then truth, but according to our TV all this article is OUTRAGEOUS LIE. And also there is an information war in all of world mass media.
1) CNN and BBC (“one of the most objective …”) skipped the beginning of the war, but when Russian peaceholders entered into Ossetia there are screaming headers appeared like “Russian jets attacked Georgia”, something about seriously injured civilians…
2) Russian TV broadcasting in Georgia was stopped today.
3) South Ossetia’s media and sites are over hacker’s attack.
There are also lots of contradictory fact and great politicians’ words.
So, I don’t know, who is telling a truth. I didn’t believe in some of the information getting from TV. But after that I don’t believe to this f**ked television at all.
Barbara 08.09.08 at 3:47 pm
hi. poor people. Your information is far from truth. You’re watching CNN or BBC. you don’t know all the truth… Do you think that it is wright to kill citizens who are not millitary people??? Is it wright to kill children??? 1600 citizens are dead already and 1000 are ingured… is it good??? It only ego of mr. Saakashvili… One word killed 500 children!!for what??? For taking ticket to NATO????????????? Is idiocy. Well… you may think that I’m too kriticall… but… I KNOW!!! Nobody in Georgia whanted to start a war excepted their president. He will go under tribunal, cause his people hate him. Hi ruind all what they tried to do all the time in one moment… well.. I’m shoked of your myopia…
christian h. 08.09.08 at 3:51 pm
Wow, that’s an amazing flood of Russian nationalism right here, combined with anti-Jewish and anti-Muslim racism. Tone it down people. Remember, it’s “workers of the world, unite!” – not “workers of one country let yourself be used to kill workers of another country”.
TrZ, as I said before, I support neither Washington and their local satrap Saakashvili, nor Moscow. I don’t support Russia’s bombing campaign, or Georgia’s bombardment of S. Ossetia, but then I didn’t support NATO’s campaign either. It is you who has double standards.
christian h. 08.09.08 at 3:52 pm
By the way, the fact that you trust CNN as an unbiased news source on this is kind of cute.
Regina 08.09.08 at 3:56 pm
Why cannot Ossetia be “Kosovo”? What is the difference between Kosovo and Ossetia? I see none.
Russian Citizen 08.09.08 at 3:58 pm
I have to mention that Russia performs it’s obligations to keep piece in South Ossetia. This is not an expansion. If Russia wanted to expand why then wait for Georgia to kill civilians? And as I recall Russia didn’t break any international laws, the country has full rights to send reinforcements to own piece keepers.
Georgian piece keepers should keep piece, but what they did? Started to fire russian piece keepers. How is that?
Even more if Georgia just wants to retake consitutional order in South Ossetia why they would kill so many civilians 20 years ago when this all started? It is clearly fascism acts over Ossetia, the same point with Abkhazia.
Why do you think people would start separation? They would never do so, unless Georgia starts to kill.
roy belmont 08.09.08 at 4:10 pm
Darfur. Ossetia.
Same behind the scenes actors, same goals, same media-controlled perceptions for the bewildered majority of those who finance the action.
Same desired outcome.
Same actual outcome.
Kablooey for the little guys.
Who’s backing the Georgian military?
Never mind.
It’s a dangerous path that, censorship.
It doesn’t bite, but it can poison.
christian h. 08.09.08 at 4:12 pm
Russian Citizen, if you believe that the Russian ruling class cares at all about the lives of the people of South Ossetia or Abkhasia, then you really need to re-think things. They couldn’t care less. This is about a strategic conflict between Russia and NATO, with Saakashvili foolishly thinking he could take advantage. The people are just pawns in this, to be moved around as the rulers see fit.
novakant 08.09.08 at 4:13 pm
How is the Guardian piece “thoughtful”? It’s blatantly one-sided.
Regina 08.09.08 at 4:15 pm
And what concerns Chechenia- they were almost 10 years independent de facto… how did they use their freedom? genocide of non-chechenians, forays, raids to capture slaves form other Caucasian countries… And all of that was happening BEFORE “The first Chechenian war”
TheIrie 08.09.08 at 4:18 pm
“I can’t help thinking that if we’d heard a bit less about restraint, and a bit more to remind Russia that joining the international system means you have be a less obvious playground bully, Putin might have thought twice before he sent the tanks in.” I’m sorry to repeat the cliche, but its true – how can an American or a Brit (like me), possibly articulate such a sentence with no trace of irony (apologies if your not British or American).
franck 08.09.08 at 4:19 pm
Randy Macdonald,
I don’t trust in the good judgment of the Russian government. They are clearly trying to annex these parts of Georgia. Note that Abkhazia is currently attacking Georgian forces in the Kodori gorge almost certainly using the Russian military. That’s another provocation. If this kind of action is accepted, why wouldn’t Russia just stage more provocations in other areas to get what it wants? You think it would be stupid for Russia to try this in Ukraine (for example), but just because something is stupid doesn’t mean it won’t be attempted.
I don’t have a problem with ethnic minorities gaining their own states (see Kosovo). I do have a problem with imperial powers annexing parts of other countries that aren’t even populated by their own dominant ethnic groups. If Russia is so concerned with the fate of the Ossetians, it should let North and South Ossetia unite as a single independent country. But we all know that Russia would never do that.
Exile 08.09.08 at 4:22 pm
Re your first update. I’m blogging this whole lunacy and do tend to side with the Russian position.
Feel free to pillage whatever you want – amazingly enough hardly any of my usual blog reads seem to be discussing this conflict.
ANDREY FROM RUSSIA 08.09.08 at 4:22 pm
That we here did not discuss there is one truth. Innocent inhabitants children, old men, women sit 3 day in bombproof shelters. The Georgian military men do not allow to them to leave a zone of operations. Here this most important from this that is told everywhere.
franck 08.09.08 at 4:23 pm
One more thing. One major propaganda item the Russians are using is that they are obliged to protect Russian citizens wherever they live. That means Russia reserves the right to invade these countries whenever it deems Russian lives to be threatened: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Belarus, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kirgizistan, Moldova, and Mongolia. That’s a lot of countries.
I don’t see any way that this won’t be used as a cudgel against all of its neighbors if the Russian government believes it has gotten away with it.
Barbara 08.09.08 at 4:26 pm
Well… it’s not flood. I saw all that people from Osetia!!! They are betrayed by their goverment… it’s too hard to explain all… you should see it by yourself(((( http://www.ossetia.ru
Joe Jeepster 08.09.08 at 4:33 pm
[quote]It’s not every morning I’m sipping my coffee, click onto BBC news, and the first thing out of my mouth is “oh, f**k!â€. Absent any deep analysis, it is just horribly, horribly worrying that Russia has invaded South Ossetia. [/quote]
Georgian tanks, artillery and volley fire systems destroy Tskhinval civil buildings from 00.30 of 08.08.2008. Russian tanks was entered at South Ossetia only at 16.00-16.30 of 08.08.2008. Thousands civilians and part of peacemakers was murdered by Georgia army before tanks was entered Tskhinval.
Georgia military budget:
2005 – about 205 millions USD
2006 – 218 millions USD
2007 – 517 millions USD
2008 – more than 950 millions USD
Who’s invaded South Ossetia? Who was prepared for war all this years?
[quote]The current level of hostility has been bubbling towards the boil all year, but I truly thought the Russians would wait for a more obvious excuse to send the tanks in. [/quote]
Russians can’t wait when civilian people and Russian peacemakers murdered from Georgian volley fire systems and artillery at Tskhinval.
[quote]But why wait when you can slip quietly into an obscure part of the Caucasus on the monster news day that follows the Olympics opening ceremony? [/quote]
I think you want ask this question to mr. Saakashvili?
[quote]A couple of weeks ago, Russian planes were blatantly flying over Ossetia and the Georgians sent in more of their troops. The Western powers called for restraint. Fat chance. Russia claims to be protecting the Russian minority in Ossetia, but really wants to show the Georgians who’s boss. [/quote]
We both don’t know objective truth about purposes of this flying. My opinion that purpose was prevention of war beginning during Olympic games.
[quote]Another observation, this is part of the long pay-back for Kosovo. When Russia was strong-armed on the UN Security Council into accepting Kosovan independence, they made it clear that the precedent would ring out in the Caucasus and indeed any where else the Russians want to destabilize. [/quote]
It’s not payback for Kosovo. It’s Kosovo – act 2, planned by the same political forces, realized by the same personnel (MPRI), by the same way, for the same financial sources, but at the direct border of Russia. Therefore, it’s more stronger destabilize events, but this events not planned and realized by Russia. Russia just don’t need any destabilize at his borders, because they just don’t have spare money and people for it.
Barbara 08.09.08 at 4:34 pm
franck well.. you are wright only in several moments – Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania their goverment worked for nazi…not all.. but their was… but Belarus, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kirgizistan, Moldova, and Mongolia – they are our friends now for a long times. now they all tring to help S. O. So, please ,stop it))) Your coutries will do the same things if you will be in the same situation)
THE ANONYM 08.09.08 at 4:46 pm
SAAKASVILI NOT THE PERSON-IT RUBBISH, THE PARASITE. HAVING CLEANED IT THERE WILL BE NO ALSO A WAR.
Randy McDonald 08.09.08 at 4:59 pm
Franck:
“I don’t trust in the good judgment of the Russian government. They are clearly trying to annex these parts of Georgia.”
Retrain as puppets, sure. Annex? I don’t see that, not yet at least.
“Note that Abkhazia is currently attacking Georgian forces in the Kodori gorge almost certainly using the Russian military. That’s another provocation. ”
… or it’s an entirely expected result of an attack on an Abkhazian ally in a widening interethnic war.
“If this kind of action is accepted, why wouldn’t Russia just stage more provocations in other areas to get what it wants?”
Russia doesn’t have the same leverage in (say) Crimea or the Donetsk basin or … There are no parastates operating on Ukrainian territory, never mind in Estonia or elsewhere.
“You think it would be stupid for Russia to try this in Ukraine (for example), but just because something is stupid doesn’t mean it won’t be attempted.”
I’d be suspicious, if only because the same separate identity and autonomous Russian-backed government that exists in the Georgian regions doesn’t exist elsewhere. Iff Russia did try something in the Crimea, that would be a notable break with policy established under Yeltsin and even under Putin.
“I don’t have a problem with ethnic minorities gaining their own states (see Kosovo). I do have a problem with imperial powers annexing parts of other countries that aren’t even populated by their own dominant ethnic groups. If Russia is so concerned with the fate of the Ossetians, it should let North and South Ossetia unite as a single independent country. But we all know that Russia would never do that.”
I take it this isn’t addressed to me, right?
For the record, I’ve never said that
Barbara:
“Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania their goverment worked for nazi…not all.. but their was… ”
Considering that the Soviet Union had invaded and occupied those countries, and were considerably more brutal than the Nazis (twice as many Estonians died in the relatively brief Soviet occupations of Estonia than under the Nazis) such wasn’t an unforeseeable event. hitler or Stalin?
Barbara 08.09.08 at 5:06 pm
well. This is the same I wrote. )))) Stalin and Hitler were like siam twins)))
Maxim (from Russia) 08.09.08 at 5:15 pm
Somebody of that people are not reading comments to the end and just screaming their opinions. It is not just foolishly, it is even funny.
Words like “That means Russia reserves the right to invade these countries…” means only that you are “floating in the river of desinformation” and no anything else. You believe only in the words that you heard and do not construct your opinion. WE ARE NOT GETTING PLEASURE WHEN OUR SOLDIERS ARE DYING! “Peacekeeping” like that – it is not the best way to solve the problem, but YOU DO NOT KNOW WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENING (and we too) and NOBODY WHO TALKING YOU (us) KNOWS.
It is very easily to understand that government and media of each distort the facts in its interests. Your media says you “Russians are bad” and shows you pictures of “Russian jets bombing civilians” and you believe in it. Try to use your mind without of any external sources of information and any emotions, please! It seems that for the long time all of the world wants to see Russians in some awful situation and when it happening all of the world are glad. Now it is happening!
Steve LaBonne 08.09.08 at 5:32 pm
Except for the innocent civilians in South Ossetia and Georgia, who only wish they could die by a method as peaceful as drowning.
Randy McDonald 08.09.08 at 5:39 pm
Barbara:
“This is the same I wrote. )))) Stalin and Hitler were like siam twins)))
”
Actually you didn’t write that. What you said, in reply to Franck’s contention that South Ossetia might cause Russia to intervene in a variety of post-Soviet countries where there were large Russian communities, was the below:
“you are wright only in several moments – Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania their goverment worked for nazi…not all..”
You didn’t make any attempt to equate Hitler with Stalin. More to the point, by separating the Baltic States from the other countries you named as Rusdsian friends (“Belarus, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kirgizistan, Moldova, and Mongolia”) seemed to suggest that the Baltic States and perhaps the unnamed Ukraine might also be plausible subjects for Russian intervention because of their highly divergent experiences of the Nazi/Soviet interludes and Russia.
roger 08.09.08 at 5:46 pm
The U.S. should certainly not have been trying to expand NATO status to Georgia – what next, is Pakistan going to be in NATO? A responsible U.S. policy would have been to disabuse Saakashvili of the notion that he had the West’s support for whatever he did. That we apparently did the opposite is no surprise – the White House periodically gets drunk on its own tough guy rhetoric. However, I can’t see Europe going through a winter begging Russia for natural gas and at the same time supporting Georgia’s aggressive stance to breakaway enclaves. And the U.S. certainly is not going to interfere. So, in essence, Georgia went and provoked a confrontation they can’t win. Best thing for the people involved, at the moment, is a resolution supported by the U.S. to bring things back to the status quo ante – pulling the rug from under the Georgia nationalist leadership, in order to preserve Georgia from even worse harm.
I doubt this will happen, however. The impulse of the liberal interventionists will be to set up a rhetorical barrage, as if all democratic principles depend on Georgia being able to oppress Ossetians, thus encouraging unrealistic expectations in the Georgian population, which will be followed by a deep sense of betrayal as it turns out nobody is willing to start WWIII in order to make the Roger Cohens of the world feel virile.
But I guess we can all cheer up in one way. If the U.S. hadn’t half broken its military in Iraq and spent money there like a drunken and corrupt sailor, the U.S. might be tempted to give a much more hardy response to Russian “provocation.” Turns out the Iraq war was good for something!
Daniel Nexon 08.09.08 at 5:49 pm
120 – fair enough. Let me rephrase: the governments and their defenders are drowning in a sea of double standards. We’ve even seen them stressed right here (but, oddly enough, always pointing in one direction).
CNN and BBC did report on the start of the fighting, i.e., before the Russian intervention. If you think otherwise, you’re just wrong.
David Weman 08.09.08 at 6:05 pm
Hi, Maria. I feel I should point out Doug Muir and Doug Merrill are different people.
David Weman 08.09.08 at 6:09 pm
They’re both Americans with German wives, they both have worked in the Balkans and Caucasus, they both blog on Fistful, but they’re different people. Honest.
Steve LaBonne 08.09.08 at 6:10 pm
Daniel Nexon- I didn’t mean that response in any way as a criticism of what you said, which I in fact agree with. I just wanted to add to it by focusing on the lethal consequences for those least at fault.
Exile 08.09.08 at 6:14 pm
The Telegraph is reporting that Georgia was given a nod and a wink by the USA, on condition that it was all sorted out within 48 hours. Now things have gone pear-shaped the Georgians have basically been dumped.
Serves ‘ em right.
THE ANONYM 08.09.08 at 6:30 pm
YOU are not right WHO TRUSTS GEORGIA. I DO NOT LIVE In Russia, BUT I FOR IT. I LOOK NEWS ALMOST From the VERY FIRST O’CLOCK of WAR.YOU LOOK NEWS WHICH to YOU TRANSFERS GEORGIA, And IT MISLEADS YOU. GEORGIA THE FIRST HAS ATTACKED ON OSSETIA. AND RUSSIA HAS GONE ON PROTECTION OF PEACE CITIZENS AND FOR PEACEMAKERS.
Joe Jeepster 08.09.08 at 6:56 pm
Vanessa Kachadurian
“Sorry, I know the real truth and all of you didn’t even know about the CASPIAN OIL PIPELINE.â€
How much funds per year Georgia can get for transit of Caspian oil?
And how much funds Georgia wasted in 2004-2008 for preparation to this war?
(Some evaluations give us about 1.5 billions USD or more).
Is this project have payback period at all, or it is just a part of much more big game?
Georgia is agricultural country with about 17% of unemployed people and only 9% of employed in industry. If Georgia’s existing political «elite» have few of brains and conscience, they must raise welfare of Georgian people. But they want war. They unleash war with inhuman artillery and rocket bombardment of civil town Tskhinval. Nobody can predict consequences of this act of inhuman genocide. Nobody can predict extent of escalation of this conflict. I think, people of Georgia demand another political elite, not supported by west.
ANDREY FROM RUSSIA 08.09.08 at 7:38 pm
People, from Russia now it is visible what global lie show from your TVs. I in a shock. Why you do not see that you deceive
Lena 08.09.08 at 8:33 pm
Well, this situation os beneficial, first of all, for the United States…
They’ve always been trying to defame Russia, and, well, they seem to succeed in doing that now.
Most of the population doesn’t care much about the reasons of this war or whatever (if most of the world now thanks to the mass media is sure, that it was the United Stated, that won World War 2), they are ready to accept what is shown on the Global TV.
Do they people from Ossetia, who lost their homes, their relatives…everything just in a single night? Do they show, that Georgian soldiers are killing women, kids, and…Russian peace-makers (whos main goal is to STOP the agression in OSSETIA, not attacking Georgia). And, for sure, if the US is supporting Georgia, why should they show the real situation? The easiest and the most effective thing here is to turn the things upside down and to blame Russia.
Sergey 08.09.08 at 8:38 pm
I say, Russia stood up for many years for once. Giorgia was freed hundreds of years ego by Russian blood when Russia fought Turks. Russia will melt Georgia in pieces. They should step back. I am pro Russia in this war. Using artillery on peaciful people? Only damm morons can do. I wish they burn in hell.
Sergey 08.09.08 at 8:42 pm
USA is not going to support Giorgia. The army is tied up in Afganistan and Iraq. All is left are National Guards. Unless mobilization, no USA there. NATO iz not going to to anything without USA. I say Russia crash Giorgia. Kick them in their a$$es and sand them back to push sheeps trhrough the fence (from behind).
abb1 08.09.08 at 8:52 pm
Mr. Parker reports that Georgian town of Gori (the birthplace of Stalin) is being bombed into the stone age in accordance with the dying wish of Mr. Solzhenitsyn.
Johnny Pez 08.09.08 at 10:14 pm
Nitpick: the Doug in Tblisi is Doug Merrill, not Doug Muir.
Sergey 08.09.08 at 10:24 pm
I live here in USA. So far only stoopid few said that US won a World War II. The rest know the truth. I do not know where you live, but what I am readin on news was always for Russia and steps it took. Now the media is nutral. I have not heard or read anything that blames Russia. Yes Bush said and his ugly partner Condoliza to move Russian army out of Ossetiya. Didn it happen? No. It is not going to happen because NATO is not going to act. It is just a talk that idiot Bush had to make.
Sergey 08.09.08 at 10:28 pm
Yes I heard this news too that the birthplace of Stalin was bombed. Did not say what kind of damage was inflictied on the town.
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