Yesterday, I ran my first gimmick promotion for the Brisbane to Gold Coast Ride against Cancer [1]. I invited anyone who donated $100 to nominate a topic on which I should write a post. Reader Daniela Brins-Norris has taken me up on the offer, and asked for a piece about the economic significance of Taylor Swift. Although this is a bit outside my usual set of topics, readers who know me well won’t be surprised to know that I have spent some time thinking about this and have strong (but weakly held) opinions.
I’ve been thinking about two questions. First, how did Swift become the cultural and economic phenomenon she is now? Second, what does her status as a self-made billionaire say about income distribution and public policy? I’ll write about the first today. If anyone would like to donate another $100, I’ll do the second.
For the first question, I’ll offer some amateur cultural analysis along with a bit of economics. As background, although Swift has had a long and successful career (beginning in 2006 at age 16) there was, until recently, nothing to predict the phenomenon we see now. As of 2015, she could have been seen as first among equals in a group of white female pop singer-songwriters that included Adele, Katy Perry, Ariana Grande and Meghan Trainor. That’s not a genre I follow closely (the female singer-songwriter I really admire is the marvellous Judy Small who is about as dissimilar as possible), but the song from that group I liked best was All About That Bass by Trainor, which seemed to prefigure huge success, rather than her subsequent sequence of modest hits.
Swift’s transformation began in 2021 when she re-recorded her back catalogue, outmanoeuvring the record companies who owned the masters of the originals. This turbocharged her career, setting the stage for the 2023 Eras tour, which turned her from a pop megastar (big, but not exceptional) into a cultural and economic phenomenon, whose tours were sought after by prime ministers and presidents. By this point the relevant comparisons weren’t with her contemporaries but with cultural figures like Elvis, Dylan, The Beatles and Michael Jackson.
As the re-recording episode shows, Swift is an exceptionally good businesswoman. Her success here contrasts sharply with that of the stereotypical 1960s rocker, forced out on the road again because their accountant has looted the bank account.
There’s still a puzzle remaining to be resolved. Taylor Swift has a lovely voice and is a talented songwriter, but, unlike the people I’ve named, she’s not a radical innovator. That’s not true of Swift alone. From the beginnings of rock-and-roll in the 1950s, through heavy metal and psychedelia to rap in the 1970s, radical innovation was the norm. Since the 1980s, new styles have mostly been hybrids and recombinations (acid house , dubstep and so on) or attempts at returning to rock purity (grunge and, before that, punk).
Drawing a long bow, I’d link to this to the decline of the teenager as a central category in music and culture generally. Before the 1950s, the word “teenager” was almost unknown. Young people turned from children at 13 into legal adults at 21, with the “awkward age” of adolescence in between. The advent of mass secondary schooling, followed by the impact of the Baby Boomers produced a large group whose tastes, for the first time, dominated popular music. And since the teen years are short, the demand for something new was ever present.
There’s not much of this left today. Teenagers are once again the subject of adult and parental concern rather than the central actors in cultural drama. The audience for popular music is no longer segmented by age in the way it used to be. This in turn makes it possible for someone like Taylor Swift to build up both an audience and a repertoire over decades rather than years.
That audience maps on to her own career remarkably well. The core group of Swifties is dominated by women aged between 16 (her age when she began her career) and 36 (her age today). Her songs chronicle her own journey through those years, and resonate with her fans. That broad spread makes it possible for her to pack stadiums around the world, even at the eye-watering ticket prices that prevail today,
As I mentioned at the beginning, this success has made Swift a billionaire. As someone who holds the view that “every billionaire is a policy failure”, that raises some questions for me. If you want my answer now, donate here. Otherwise you will have to wait.
Again, you can support me here
fn1. I don’t usually promote my fundraisers here on CT, but I thought this post might be of enough interest to justify an exception
{ 32 comments }
BigHank53 08.19.26 at 12:02 am
Taylor Swift writes love songs. Some are breakup songs and some are wistful songs and some are relentlessly chipper upbeat pop summer hits. But she writes a lot of love songs…because (a) she’s really good at it, and (b) they sell. Holy cats do they sell.
D. S. Battistoli 08.19.26 at 7:41 am
I think there may be some points about Taylor Swift that you’re underestimating.
As of 2015, when you compare her to Adele, Ariana Grande, Megan Trainor, and Katy Perry, she had released four albums to Adele’s two. Swift outsold Adele (her top-selling album outperforming Adele’s) and her albums had received nearly twice as many Grammy nominations, though Adele had won more Grammys. The other two artists were in a very different league.
As to innovation, given that Swift started as a country-music star, the question of innovation depends a little on how you define her field. If you consider her a pop musician, then she’s minimally innovative. If you consider her a country musician (which she was for her first few albums), then while she displayed little “frontier innovation,” she was skilled at Graham Parsons-style catch-up innovation directed toward the pop mainstream: bringing in to her music things that country had hitherto considered “other” while still maintaining her base. In Parson’s case, he brought in aspects of late 1960s guitar rock; in Swift’s, it was programmed beats.
BigHank53 @1‘s point about love songs and breakup songs is key to Swift’s success. Swift, upon becoming an adult two years into her professional career, managed to walk a line that was very challenging for music and movie stars in the “Girl Boss” era: she maintained a wholesome image while having a reputation for dating and breaking up with a lot of men who were themselves famous; the approach of each album release date fueled speculation of how she would “dish” on her latest exes, and the albums, for her fans, followed through not just on the storytelling, but on the expectations for musicianship.
That first decade also saw her able to capitalize, perhaps inadvertently given what we’ve later learned about her politics, on what was then her apolitical appearance. At a time when R&B and rap were increasingly dominating the American and British charts, and rock was falling back, she was a white star in a historically white genre who sold well and won awards. Kanye West’s stage-mounting at the MTV Video Music Awards, when he said that his girlfriend Beyoncé should have won the award given to Swift (Swift’s song was “You Belong With Me”; Beyoncé’s was “Single Ladies (Put a Ring On It)”). In the long run, Swift and Beyoncé have become the two leading female vocalists of the first part of this century and seem to get along. But in 2009, for people who wanted to take side in a culture clash (Swift’s youth v. West’s middle age, Swift and Beyoncé’s feminism versus West’s chauvinism, or the race card), that possibility was open to them.
All told, I’m inclined to see 2021’s re-recording as a consolidation move rather than a turbocharging. The purchasing power of Swift’s fan base, the “Swifties,” was what she was betting on, and it came through. The fact that Swift’s fan base has, almost since the beginning, included both teenaged girls and their mothers (who never found anything objectionable in her music, unlike most youth pop music since at least the days of ragtime) may have increased the extent to which she was uniquely able to bank on people paying for full physical albums and increasingly pricy ticket sales at a time of middle- and lower-class economic stagnation, even though the rise of streaming was hollowing out the music industry as a whole.
To bring it back to the question of innovation, it really depends: I struggle to think of another artist as productive as she is who has established the “sell to both girls and their mothers” model and maintained it across two generations of girls. And her ability to first integrate pop (and related, more or less modified R&B stylings) sounds into her country repertoire before going fully pop, without losing her initial country fanbase was a hallmarks of “catch-up through diffusion” as the economists have had it since the 1960s: it’s innovation to the people doing it and the market they serve, even if it’s not new to the world as a whole, and far from avant-garde.
D. S. Battistoli 08.19.26 at 7:49 am
Oh, and I would note as well: as of this writing, 2021 also happened to be the last year in which Adele, Swift’s closest competition for sales and awards among white female vocalists, released an album. Since 2022, I think Swift has released something like three fully new studio albums and two re-recordings of the material from previous albums.
Tim Worstall 08.19.26 at 11:41 am
Well, yeeees.
“From the beginnings of rock-and-roll in the 1950s, through heavy metal and psychedelia to rap in the 1970s, radical innovation was the norm. Since the 1980s, new styles have mostly been hybrids and recombinations (acid house , dubstep and so on) or attempts at returning to rock purity (grunge and, before that, punk).
Drawing a long bow, I’d link to this to the decline of the teenager as a central category in music and culture generally.”
Over the same time period there was a massive change in the technology of instruments and recording. I’m unconvinced you could have made Machine Head on the kit the Beatles were using in Hamburg nor Bohemian Rhapsody in the studio used to record She Loves Me (possibly no great loss on either but tastes, do, differ). Some of the novelty thus being exploration of what could be newly done, exploration of the possibility space.
Only some of it perhaps. Which then rather stops when 24 track everywhere and decent synths mean everyone’s got access to pretty much everything and the new boundaries return to the notes and words again rather than the effects possible.
A bit. Maybe?
Harry 08.19.26 at 4:06 pm
Maybe it’s the company I keep, but I don’t really agree about her standing in 2015. Even before that point I thought she was streets ahead of the others you mention. Not in terms of talent (Adele is a better singer who writes better, though many fewer, songs; Megan Trainor is also a better songwriter; but Swift is probably the most committed and brilliant overall performer), but in terms of success. I would have — indeed did! — predicted that she would eclipse the others (I thought she already had). I’d also seen her live by then. She gives her fans utter commitment of a kind that is quite extraordinary.
Adding to Tim’s point about technology, which is about recording: the technology for performing live is constantly improving (indeed, as in ABBA’s case, performing not live!). I like seeing bands in smaller venues for numerous reasons (including a pathological fear of heights, so I’d prefer seeing a good tribute band over an original in many cases!), but stadium concerts can be quite extraordinary now, and she has mastered that like no-one else.
D. S. Battistoli 08.19.26 at 4:43 pm
Reminds me of Charles Mingus’ liner notes for his album Let My Children Hear Music:
I want to be clear, I like that Elvis showed white Americans that they could enjoy music played in close imitation to the way the most popular black artists did; then the Beatles did the same in Britain and the US, too. Dylan showed folk-music fans that a song played on an electric guitar was not bad by reason of the instrumentation. Keith Richard sought to emulate the overdriven sound of Sister Rosetta Thorpe’s guitar amp—and there’s a straight line from there to Rush’s “Metalhead,” cited by Tim Worstall @5, above.
With the exception of Jimi Hendrix, Frank Zappa, and some pieces by King Crimson and their scene, that old time rock’n’roll was not as innovative as its partisans may like to recall it being, even if Mingus’ words are more than a little harsh.
And that means that the limited originality of Swift’s music isn’t actually as different from that shown by pop in the last century’s third quarter as some of her critics may like to believe.
D. S. Battistoli 08.19.26 at 4:47 pm
ah, *”Machinehead.”
Just one of the ‘heads we’ve had a pleasure to know.
engels 08.19.26 at 5:29 pm
“how did Swift become the cultural and economic phenomenon she is now?”
It’s not real music? The explanation is much more similar to “why does McDonalds sell so many hamburgers” than “why is Mahler or Charlie Parker” revered. The race is not to the swift etc…
engels 08.19.26 at 5:36 pm
Another interesting question: how did Taylor Swift tickets become the currency of political corruption for centrists in UK?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckg9e0ydjxpo
victor 08.19.26 at 9:35 pm
Another factor is the production values. If you look at the album credits, not only does it have a long list of musicians and songwriters; the producers are also numerous. I liken this to the 1930s Hollywood movie factory way of making art. And like others have said, she does put on a SHOW for her fans.
John Q 08.20.26 at 6:24 am
DSB @6 and engels @8 There’s a whole book to be written about how rock ousted jazz. Purely technical innovation, greater complexity etc took jazz down the road to oblivion previously trodden by European art music
Elvis offered a package that combined the black and gospel music he grew up with, white rock and roll (Bill Haley), and screaming fandom (starting in a small way with Sinatra but really pioneered by Johnny Ray).
John Q 08.20.26 at 6:38 am
Harry @5 Quite possibly if you were paying attention you could have predicted that she would outlast the others. But I doubt that anyone predicted what happened in the 2020s.
Someone just looking at the numbers would have found it hard to make even the weaker call. Trainor had the biggest hit of 2015 and Adele sold more records. Others like Miley Cyrus and Rihanna were also contenders. And by the then standards of the industry, Swift was already starting to age out at 25. She was aware of the norm of 30 as career-ending for female singers and shattered it, but I don’t think anyone predicted it (feel free to set me straight on this)
D. S. Battistoli 08.20.26 at 7:12 am
John Q @12:
By 2015, Adele had one album that was 10+x platinum, and Swift had 2. Between all her albums, Swift sold more far more records. Miley Cyrus, like Ariana Grande, Katy Perry, and Megan Traynor had won no Grammys as of 2015. Adele had 10 wins on something like 20 nominations, and Swift 7 on ~30. Neither Traynor nor any of the other of the Grammy-less artists on your list, nor the Grammy-winner Rihanna, had ever had even one album go 10x platinum; for Cyrus, Grande, Perry, Traynor, and Rihanna, their sales ceiling was 5x platinum.
Swift, on the other hand, unlike Adele, had as of 2015 never had an album sell less than at 5x platinum levels. So while, yes, she was aware of the age ceiling, her market performance suggested that she was further from it than any of the other singers you mention.
D. S. Battistoli 08.20.26 at 7:24 am
Sorry for the uniform bold on my last comment. Ah, html tag editing.
John @11: whole books have indeed been written on the topic: Stuart Nicholson’s Jazz–Rock;Matt Brennan’s When Genres Collide; and Mike Smith’s In With the In Crowd, the latter of which talks in part about how popular black musics that didn’t enter the payola game in the 1950s and 60s didn’t chart until the digitization of sales records in the 1980s, and how this enabled jazz’ avant-garde to claim a definitional mantle within their genre that the Zappas and King Crimsons never were able to claim in rock.
But ultimately, the question of what became popular is distinct from the question of what was innovative, except insofar as the popular is a story of the “catch-up innovation” that I discussed in my first comment. I’m with you that rock became more popular by mixing into itself innovations that were performed elsewhere. This is also what Swift did. Neither is frontier innovation, and therefore classic rock doesn’t hold any particular innovation edge over, say, the music of Taylor Swift.
JPL 08.20.26 at 8:15 am
“There’s a whole book to be written about how rock ousted jazz. Purely technical innovation, greater complexity etc took jazz down the road to oblivion”
Oh, no, I’ve got to object. There’s no good book to be written about how rock ousted jazz, because that didn’t happen. Even post-1965 jazz still was strong and creative (though it seemed to fall out of popular favor), up till Grover Washington Jr”s “Mr Magic”, that finally fused swing with pop grooves, and initiated the pop and fusion jazz trends. I don’t follow it, but I could ask, “where is rock now?” Right now jazz is not in oblivion, but vigorous and vibrant as ever. Here are two examples of young female vocalists who have come on the scene in the last few years.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oZwAlXOf01k
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vVKbeUs0a_A
Taylor Swift’s success and popularity is mainly due to her cultivation of her fan base through social media and her business acumen; the quality of the music is secondary. The explanation of the Swiftie phenomenon is a question for social psychologists, not music critics. Sorry to all the fans, but I find her music quite ordinary. (I’m constitutionally immune to mass mania.) Who are the true innovators in pop music is an interesting question, but I would be more interested if the focus were on influence on other artists, rather than popularity. For me, the main innovation in all music is the one from Africa via Black America, in the areas of rhythm (swing, in particular) and harmonic structures. Incorporation of the jazz tradition makes all kinds of music better.
Thanks to D S Battistoli for mentioning Jimi Hendrix. A few years before the group mentioned in the OP, we had Amy Winehouse; she deserves mention. Then in the 80s we could mention Folasade Adu,
engels 08.20.26 at 8:44 am
I think it’s because jazz sounds like freedom, whereas rock and its generic offspring (mostly) sound like the stupefying conformity we’re all forced to live under. Taylor Swift takes this to another level.
Her songs could have been written by an AI but she promotes Dem-friendly messages while looking like a Fox News anchor or Trump press sec so the West-Wing-watching classes lap it up and she’s laughing all the way to the investment bank.
And I’m sick of hearing reading Guardian editorials about her wedding dress.
engels 08.20.26 at 9:12 am
Listening to Taylor Swift’s music or, worse, paying a month of your corporate minion’s earnings to attend one of her concerts, is a form of ritualistic submission to power, like bowing en masse to a pharaoh after wearing out your bones building him a pyramid (and as such it defies purely economic explanation).
Nick 08.20.26 at 5:08 pm
Re: “Before the 1950s, the word ‘teenager’ was almost unknown.” You’re off by a decade, I’d say. In the 1940s, teenagers became widely acknowledged as a demographic, consumer, and cultural category in the U.S., thanks in no small part to the teen mania stirred up by another pop icon, Frank Sinatra.
John Q 08.20.26 at 7:19 pm
Nick, I was in two minds about this, and my decision to omit Sinatra partly reflects the extent to which his teenage fandom was ephemeral, at least as I experienced it in retrospect. For me, growing up in the 1960s, the creators of rock-and-roll (Bill Haley, Jerry Lee Lewis and of course Elvis) were still big names even if they weren’t getting hits. By contrast, Sinatra was for old people.
You are correct that the word “teenager” was coined in the 1940s and that Sinatra was an important precursor – I mentioned this @16 above. But I still think the real take-off was in the 1950s.
John Q 08.20.26 at 7:24 pm
Engels – on this and other questions, your comments read as if your opinions were formed before 1956 (my birth year, and significant in other ways) and never revised. But unless you are very old now or were a very precocious young person that can’t be right. If you want to post something non-snarky about your intellectual formation, I’d be interested.
John Q 08.20.26 at 7:35 pm
JPL in answer to your point “where is rock now?” , I’d say “everywhere” in terms of mass culture, but “nowhere much” in terms of recent and innovative new music. That fits my general story pretty well.
Like Taylor Swift, but over a much longer period, rock has aged with its audience, while continuing to add new followers. (I infer the second part by the ubiquity of T-shirts celebrating bands that had broken up well before the wearers could have been born).
JPL 08.20.26 at 10:17 pm
I certainly don’t mean to disparage rock. I don’t follow it, but I consider it a respectable genre. I used to enjoy John Peel’s program on the BBC World Service, and there have been some great bands in recent times, like Dire Straits, Tears for Fears, Radiohead, etc. This performance by Gorillaz is beautiful and impressive; would it be considered rock of some sort? I would say it’s definitely innovative, and relatively recent, and I’m sure it’s a popular band, just not popular like Taylor Swift. But musically it’s definitely better. And Yukimi Nagano is a much more interesting singer in my opinion. My impression is that music like this does not make it on to the pop charts these days, and that was my point. I would guess that in the old days it would have.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2x6bWw2J0po
Matt 08.21.26 at 1:52 am
It’s right to note that Swift (and also Cyrus!) started out in country before moving to pop, but I don’t think we should forget Katy Perry’s death metal period: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pIEAJr3OEy8
engels 08.21.26 at 10:16 am
your comments read as if your opinions were formed before 1956 (my birth year, and significant in other ways)
Ellington at Newport?
If you want to post something non-snarky about your intellectual formation, I’d be interested.
As the ‘nym suggests I’m just a good old-fashioned Marxist who was radicalised working a boring capitalist job (a geriatric millennial in temporal terms). And I think Adorno was right about most cultural matters other than jazz.
Doug 08.21.26 at 1:52 pm
Not to be reminding everyone of their age, but “great bands in recent times, like Dire Straits , Tears for Fears, Radiohead, etc.” is not really a consistent statement.
Dire Straits, love them though I do, have not released a new album in 35 years; Brothers in Arms is more than 40 years old. Tears for Fears seem to have periodic reunions, but their heyday is also close to 40 years ago. Radiohead at least had big albums this century, though there, too, “recent times” is a stretch. We’re as far now from “Creep” as “Love Me Do” was from Bing Crosby.
engels 08.22.26 at 6:35 pm
Dire Straits make Taylor Swift look like a boundary-pushing genius of musical invention.
Swifties ready to donate another $100 08.23.26 at 8:15 pm
as we are really curious what the dear Prof. and all of CT thinks about ‘what does her status as a self-made billionaire say about income distribution and public policy’?
But only if there is some kind of a recognition first that Swift became the cultural and economic phenomenon she is now by understanding the need of people (old or young)
to ‘Shake it OFF’
D. S. Battistoli 08.24.26 at 1:21 pm
engels @26:
Be nice, now. I was a grown-up before I found out that Supertramp and Dire Straits were two different bands. They were both so very technically proficient. So put together. And their lawyers always gave co-writing credits to the other artists whose licks their singles lifted, often even before being asked.
nonrenormalizable 08.27.26 at 4:13 pm
Slightly interesting that most (if not all?) of the comments here, including mine, are presumably by those who identify as men. To echo D.S. Battistoli @2 and others, my sense in having observed the Swift phenomenon is that the vast majority of her fan base is female, and she has succeeded in both maintaining the cohort of women I grew up with as they arrive in their early middle-age (argh!) and are now nostalgic for their fun-seeking youth, and has developed an active following with the current generation of girls and young women.
Two (perhaps contradictory) points I’d like to raise are:
1. Is music pop culture anymore? I have long since aged out of the target demo of Radio 1 etc. but since the rise of the internet and social media, I get the sense that the impact of new music on culture has diminished. Perhaps this is linked to JohnQ’s point about teenagers, though perhaps it’s more that teenagers aren’t lying around in their rooms listening to albums and mixtapes or reading NME than they are e.g. gaming and watching their favourite streamers. The few big artists that remain are getting plays and starring in movies etc., but there doesn’t seem to be a current “sound” of the era compared with the 70s-90s, that escapes into the wider audience. (Unless it’s K-pop, which does seem very popular but as an “old” just sounds very same-y and the artists seem largely interchangeable and dispensable.)
2. Is the Swift (and Beyonce, as DSB raised) phenomenon reflective of a kind of searching for community and connection in a more atomised world? The big artists who have managed to have successful careers spanning a decade or more, become figures with which we both mark the passage of time, and their album releases/tours become points of reflection about personal growth and a chance to reconnect with old friends — the recent Oasis reunion would being the prime example. While detracting from point 1, this mass cultural impact is only achieved by a select number of artists.
engels 08.28.26 at 1:24 pm
teenagers aren’t lying around in their rooms listening to albums and mixtapes or reading NME than they are e.g. gaming and watching their favourite streamers
Thanks to the internet, sex, drugs and rock and roll has been replaced by pronouns, anti-depressants and ragebait.
ETB 08.28.26 at 8:47 pm
Town and Country magazine, November 1771
Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose.
(Isn’t most runaway pop success obvious in retrospect yet unpredictable in advance?)
engels 08.28.26 at 10:18 pm
Thread derailment deleted
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