I am happy to report that <a href=”https://crookedtimber.org/2011/04/29/hogging-part-ii-hog-harder/”>all my predictions</a> have turned out precisely as I expected: the Tampa Bay Lightning and Boston Bruins have swept their conference semifinal series, and enhanced interrogation techniques have led to the discovery and death of Osama bin Laden.

You may thank me in comments.

Despite having recently co-edited a book on Moretti’s work [free! free download, or buy the paper!], I haven’t yet commented on his Hamlet paper, which Kieran brought to our collective attention. Because I only just now got around to reading it, and sometimes it’s good practice to hold off until you do that, even though this is the internet and all.

First things first: if you can’t access the LRB version, there’s a free, longer version available from Moretti’s own lab.

Right, the whole thing reminds me of that memorable scene in the play in which Hamlet puts on a PPT presentation, representing social networks in The Marriage of Gonzago nudge nudge wink wink. (Apparently he’s been working on this stuff at school for years.) And Ophelia doesn’t really get it and Hamlet helpfully explains: “Marry, this is miching mallecho; it means mischief.”

But seriously, folks. I like the paper, and I don’t like it. On the one hand, I wholeheartedly endorse this bit. Or at least I would very much like to be able to. [click to continue…]

The estimable Flying Rodent “has a post on”:http://flyingrodent.blogspot.com/2011/05/cons-and-conspiraloons.html the people who are slagging off Adam Curtis in the wake of the Bin Laden killing. The scene he refers to of Rumsfeld and Russert at 20′ 30″ of the video is priceless. Watch and enjoy.

The new Fleet Foxes album, Helplessness Blues [amazon], is just great! Pitchfork gives it 8.8. I give it three bus stops up. That’s how many bus stops I went past mine, giving it a first listen. Favorite track at this stage is “Lorelai”, and someone has already made a YouTube video for it, using old San Francisco footage. Which works quite nicely. (Guess it’s the ‘old news’ theme.) It looks like NPR has a full stream of the whole album. The mp3 album is only $3.99 at the moment, so I’d snatch it up, were I you. [UPDATE: sorry, you missed the sale.]

Somehow there’s this review meme that Fleet Foxes is coolly uncool. Pitchfork: “Their bright folk-rock sound wasn’t exactly “cool,” but that was sort of the point– it’s familiar in the most pleasing way, lacking conceit or affectation. Their expression of their love for music (and making music) was refreshing three years ago, and that sort of thing never gets old.” Stereogum: “Helplessness Blues is a deeply uncool album. If you played it for your dad he’d either say, “Finally,” or he’d laugh and put on some Crosby, Stills, Nash & Young, Simon & Garfunkel, Cat Stevens, maybe even America if you stuck around. Robin Pecknold, Fleet Foxes’ singer and songwriter knows how unhip this music is.”

That doesn’t seem right to me at all. Fleet Foxes sounds to me like growing up on Radiohead transmogrified into a kind of flat, plainsong-y folk choral style. Radiohead is vocally flat/affectless and instrumentally droney and tick-tock yet also emotionally soaring; so is a lot of folk music. So you can map Radiohead-y forms and stylings onto folk-y or country-ish patterns and get something that sounds quite contemporary. If you don’t play it for laughs (seriously, click that link) you can play it for sheer beauty, which gets you Fleet Foxes, sounding quite contemporary. If you held a gun to Vampire Weekend’s head and told them to play folk music, they might sound like some of the brighter, warmer Fleet Foxes tracks. Like “Sim Sala Bim”. Which, come to think of it, sort of reminds me of the Beatles, “Two of Us”. And could be construed as Crosby, Stills, Nash and Young-ish.

If you wanted to compare Fleet Foxes to something 70’s, I guess the smooth and flat but strong and soaring vocal style of Roberta Flack would seem less inapt, comparison-wise, than Simon and Garfunkel or America. But I don’t think Fleet Foxes sounds much like Roberta Flack. The Pitchfork review also compares them to the Zombies, which I could buy. I love the Zombies.

UPDATE: OK, I take it back. All that “Apples in the summer” stuff in “The Shrine/An Argument” sounds like Crosby, Still, Nash and Young.

The recent British royal wedding left me wondering what it was all about. One million people were said to have gathered on the streets of London for the occasion, and media coverage is estimated to have reached some two billion worldwide. Normally I’d be happy with a bemused shrug: ‘has the whole world gone mad?’ (Especially when I realized the staff in my local optician’s in Dublin had come to work dressed as if going to a wedding, to watch the proceedings live online). But massive state-sponsored pageantry can’t be brushed aside so easily, and the impending state visit by Queen Elizabeth to Ireland prompts me to pay it some attention.

It seems to me that we might take four possible views, not all of which are entirely independent of one another. The monarchy and all it entails could be seen as a matter of abstract constitutionalism; as an offshoot of modern celebrity culture; as a focus of political legitimation within Britain; as an immediately recognizable global brand.

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In my post on bin Laden’s death, I noted the spin in a New York Times story suggesting that torture had helped to extract the clues leading to bin Laden’s location, even though the facts reported suggested the opposite. This analysis, also in the NYT, confirms both the spinning and the fact that the evidence produced under brutal torture was deliberately misleading. Given the failure of the Bush Administration to get anywhere near bin Laden, it seems likely that they were in fact misled, deluded by the ancient belief that evidence extracted under torture is the most reliable kind.

It’s noteworthy that the URL for the story is “torture”, but the article itself doesn’t adopt that description and doesn’t even use the word until well after the lede.

The current issue of New Left Review has an article by Franco Moretti applying a bit of network analysis to the interactions within some pieces of literature. Here is the interaction network in Hamlet, with a tie being defined by whether the characters speak to one another. (Notice that this means that, e.g., Rosencrantz and Guildenstern do not have a tie, even though they’re in the same scenes.)

The Hamlet network

And here is Hamlet without Hamlet:

Hamlet without Hamlet

I think we can safely say that he is a key figure in the network. Though the Prince may be less crucial than he thinks, as Horatio seems to be pretty well positioned, too. Lots more in the article itself.

A working paper by students at Hamilton College out yesterday has the laudable aim of auditing the predictions made by political pundits in order to see whether they are any use or not. Unsurprisingly, it finds that Paul Krugman is the most useful columnist and that a bunch of hacks I’ve never heard of are the worst (it also, wonderfully, gives the success formula for prognostication as “avoid law school and adopt a liberal philosophy). Below the fold, a few points on a subject which many readers will know is dear to my heart.

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The death of Osama bin Laden has inevitably produced a gigantic volume of instant reactions, to which I’m going to add. Doubtless I’m repeating what others have said somewhere, but it seems to me that most of the commentary has understated the likely impact, particularly as regard US politics. That impact is by no means all favorable – while the Republicans are the big losers, Obama will also be strengthened as against his critics on the left, among whom I’d include myself (admittedly as a citizen of a client state rather than the US proper).

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Following on from Henry and John’s piece on ‘hard Keynesianism’, here is another angle on the politics of the EU. Economic historian Kevin O’Rourke has an excellent paper setting out a very nice framework for thinking about the Eurozone. It was presented at a conference of the Institute for New Economic Thinking held recently in Bretton Woods (yes, surely a good venue for such an event). There is also a short summary here.

Kevin’s creative insight is to combine the impossibility theorems from two bodies of literature – Mundell-Fleming on monetary policy, and Dani Rodrik on global governance – and to show that the Eurozone occupies an uneasy half-way house in both economic and political governance. The particular merit of setting out the issues like this is that it demonstrates why there are no optimal policy solutions, only difficult trade-offs, with different potential losers in each case. It is an innovative and stimulating exercise in political economy that deserves to gain a wide readership.

Mundell and Fleming’s economic trilemma posits that you can only achieve two of three objectives in monetary policy: that is, open capital markets, domestic control over monetary policy, and fixed as opposed to floating exchange rates. ‘European Monetary Union has thus solved the economic trilemma in a particularly radical way: capital mobility combined with the complete abandonment of national monetary sovereignty’.

The political trilemma, drawing on Dani Rodrik’s work, says that if you go for increasing globalization, you cannot simultaneously have both nation-state politics and democratic accountability. If you want the latter two (as in the ‘Golden Age’ of postwar capitalism), you need restrictions on capital mobility. If you go for closer economic integration, you could do it by imposing all the adjustment costs onto your own citizens, as in the era of the Gold Standard. But as Polanyi and others have pointed out, this is hard to sustain without massive repression, and pretty well impossible in the long run with universal enfranchisement. So the alternative is to construct a collective decision-making capacity at the transnational level. As O’Rourke notes:

What makes European Monetary Union such a radical solution to the political trilemma is that it not only abandons national monetary policy-making, but delegates it to a technocratic Central Bank… Moreover, this has occurred without common Eurozone policies in complementary areas, notably financial and banking regulation; and it has occurred without a move towards a common fiscal policy, which most economists also regard as a desirable complement to a common monetary policy.

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The most recent data from Eurostat bring out starkly the implications of the current policy mix in the Eurozone. The peripheral economies continue to be spun around by an inflexible centre, and whether they fly off in a crisis remains anyone’s guess.

On the face of it, as the following graph suggests, some economies are easily diagnosed as having fiscal deficit problems. It is not hard to see how German public opinion can be persuaded that fiscal profligacy is the problem and that a dose of austerity will bring them back into line with German fiscal virtue.

Italy and Belgium actually have larger accumulated debts than Portugal or Spain, but they have no immediate problems keeping their debts rolling over. Britain falls into the same cluster with its combined debt and deficit problems, but no-one is seriously worried about its policy options.

The peripheral economies have problems that are different in kind, different from Germany and also from each other.

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Matthew Yglesias is puzzled that women still want liposuction even if the fat comes back in other places. That doesn’t surprise me. If you had a pill that just induced redistribution of fat from unwanted places, a lot of people would take that pill. What strikes me about the study is the sheer weirdness of fat sort of migrating from you belly to your … triceps? Seriously?

It turns out, Dr. Leibel said, that the body controls the number of its fat cells as carefully as it controls the amount of its fat. Fat cells die and new ones are born throughout life. Scientists have found that fat cells live for only about seven years and that every time a fat cell dies, another is formed to take its place.

This seems like an obstacle not just to successful liposuction but to fat reduction by diet or exercise. How does anyone lose fat? Googling around, it looks as though there is some controversy about whether you can lose fat cells, or just make the one’s you’ve got smaller. Hmmm, learn something new every day. [click to continue…]

“It sure seems like Obama’s job as secret Muslim operative imposing Sharia law on the US just got a whole lot harder.”

We probably should have an open thread on Bin Laden’s death. Consider this that thread.

Its been a busy couple of weeks — we were on vacation sort of, and then catching up. It is wonderful to me that Wisconsin 2011 I learned of Sarah-Jane’s death from a bunch of 14 year olds I’d just made a really good dinner for. But I’d rather it weren’t true. Barry Letts, the Brig, and now Sarah Jane, its been a tough couple of years.
Grauniad obit here.
Choice quote: ‘Current producer Steven Moffat said: “Never meet your heroes, wise people say. They weren’t thinking of Lis Sladen.”‘