I was at the Bulls vs. Knicks game last night. What a great ending: the perfect shot in the last second. Here is the recap of the last minute:
The Bulls were ahead 102-99 after Songaila hit two free throws with 51.1 seconds left in overtime. Crawford went 2-of-3 from the line after being fouled by Andres Nocioni to make it a one-point game. After Nocioni converted two foul shots with 8.3 seconds left, Crawford’s 3 tied it at 104.
There were 4.6 seconds left. Gordon saved the day by scoring in the last second (tenth of a second to be precise). It was awesome.
All this made me wonder: why do we bother – those of us who do:) – watching the first three quarters of basketball games? So much happens in the last few minutes almost regardless of what happened up until then. This is a layperson’s view and I certainly don’t have the stats to back this up, but it seems to me that this is quite often the case. Sure, we watch the game, because of the sheer enjoyment of the sport. Still, it seems that few sports competitions have as much riding on such a tiny last segment of the game as basketball.
So do we watch to figure out the optimal last-minute strategy? The Bulls did a horrible job with free throws last night so it was an especially good bet to foul them in the last few seconds. But would there have been a different strategy to retrieve the ball if they had not been doing so poorly on that front? I’m not saying that we have to be rational about our sports-viewing habits, but sitting through an entire basketball game seems particularly irrational.
{ 24 comments }
Jared 01.19.06 at 11:35 pm
Is this some kind of revenge for all those cricket and rugby posts? I like it.
First, we watch because the game is beautiful. It often astounds us with amazing feats of athleticism (as any Chicagoan knows from the days of MJ), and surprises us with unexpected plays. The extra pass in traffic for the easy two is, in my book, better than a dunk or a long three. So it’s not always about who wins.
But even to the extent that it is about who wins, the point at which the endgame starts is always vague. So yes, the first 90% of the game is mostly positioning for the last minute, but you always have to pay attention to the growing desperation of the team that’s behind, and know exactly when they should rest their starters for the end of the game, know who’s in foul trouble, etc. There’s a growing tension that’s there in the details.
Watching the whole game also increases your involvement, making the tension of the last minute more heart-wrenching.
Richard 01.19.06 at 11:38 pm
Um… Eszter… Didn’t something else of note happen last night at this basketball game? I don’t know how many NBA games there are in a season, but it appears that there is now statistical evidence to support the fact that at least once a year, players will jump into the stands….
bmm6o 01.19.06 at 11:45 pm
It can run the other way, though – especially in college ball. The final 1 minute of game time can dddrrraaaggg out for excruciating minutes of clock time.
And I find it odd that committing fouls can work as a legitimate strategy. It probably means that the penalties for fouling aren’t stiff enough. Is there another sport where this is the case?
John Quiggin 01.20.06 at 12:32 am
There is a category of “unsportsmanlike” fouls, usually deliberate fouls aimed at stopping a basket, but I’ve never seen such a foul called in the situation Eszter describes.
On the whole, though, I agree with Richard. An easy way of killing this strategy would be to give the fouled side the option of a sideline ball and a clock reset.
Eszter 01.20.06 at 1:30 am
Is this some kind of revenge for all those cricket and rugby posts?
You said it, Jared, not me.:)
I think you’re right about the growing tension issue. And watching the game live at the United Center also added to the experience. Here are some pictures.
Richard – Interestingly, that incident was very hard to follow from where I was sitting. (This picture gives an idea of how far up we were.) I only really understood what had happened later while reading about it.:-}
nick s 01.20.06 at 2:09 am
All this made me wonder: why do we bother – those of us who do:) – watching the first three quarters of basketball games?
Didn’t I make this point here a while ago? Oh, yes.
Anyway, let’s hope that Ben Gordon remains below the radar, so that he’ll play for his native country in the Olympic basketball competition.
On the wider question: you watch the early quarters for those moments when the momentum gathers or shifts, and one side puts in a surge to take the lead or claw it back.
John Quiggin 01.20.06 at 3:51 am
Eszter, I think there’s an insoluble dilemma here.
Either you have lots of games that are over by halftime or there’s no point (as regards gaining information about the result) in watching the first half.
Bro. Bartleby 01.20.06 at 6:24 am
I’ve always felt the same about the Track and Field 100-Meter dash, I always arrive during the last 5 meters when the race is always determined.
Ted 01.20.06 at 7:32 am
This is why I don’t watch basketball. The first three quarters are usually meaningless, and then in the final quarter one team either has an insurmountable lead, making that quarter meaningless too, or else it’s a close game in which case the last two minutes drag on interminably with fouls, time outs, and free throws. I guess there are people for whom that raises the tension level, and I know the last couple of minutes of football games are often the same.
More people should be hockey fans: at the end of the game, if it’s close, which it usually is, one team pulls the goalie and you get more, not less, offense and excitement, and there’s only one time out per team for the whole game.
Dan Kervick 01.20.06 at 7:50 am
All this made me wonder: why do we bother – those of us who do:) – watching the first three quarters of basketball games?
Good point. I also wonder why we bother making love, when the orgasm only happens at the end.
And why do we bother sitting through hours of Hamlet, when the climactic swordfight and poisonings, and all the exciting deaths, happen within a few seconds of each other in the last scene?
And I often ask myself why I bother reading James Joyce’s “The Dead”, when all I really want is to savor the breathtaking final paragraph.
Look, I’m a busy man. I don’t have time for all that “development”. Just bring me culminations!
Sometimes I even ask myself why I bother to live at all, when I know very well the most intense episode will be the final scene when my life flashes before my eyes just before the hangman opens the floor on the scaffold. Somebody just shoot me please. I can’t wait!
And I don’t know why anybody bothered to read this whole comment. I can tell you taht in the end it all comes to this —–> nothing.
Slocum 01.20.06 at 8:07 am
The first three quarters are usually meaningless, and then in the final quarter one team either has an insurmountable lead
Huh? Leads of all sizes are possible going into the 4th quarter. Sometimes leads are insurmountable, and other times seemingly insurmountable leads disappear in a blizzard of high-intensity defense and lights-out shooting by the trailing team. Or sometimes they only *almost* disappear as the team making the comeback runs out of gas or time. And sometimes insurmountable leads are just that (as, for example, in last night’s Knicks game against the Pistons, when the first three quarters were the meaningful ones and the last one was mostly for emptying the benches, goofing off, and padding stats).
Steve 01.20.06 at 8:07 am
I think we watch basketball because 1) we’re tired and don’t feel like reading, working, or doing anything valuable or productive, and 2) we’ve come to realize that sitcoms are repetitive and stupid.
Actually, I personally don’t watch basketball games for all the reasons listed above. Instead, I play computer games-an equally meaningless form of entertainment, but one I happen to enjoy. My wife watches surgery shows and house swapping shows. Whatever tricks your trigger.
Steve
jet 01.20.06 at 8:13 am
I just had this discussion with members of my family as we sat through several of my 11 year old nephew’s basketball games. The 4th quarters were the only ones worth watching.
Todd 01.20.06 at 10:04 am
1) I think it should seem to everyone who’s seen Elway or Montana run a two minute drill, or who watched David Ortiz repeatedly catch fire after the seventh inning last year, that the end of the game in every sport has a heightened importance.
2) I think that, to some extent, this captures one of the best things about basketball: very few leads are ever too much to overcome. Unless the Spurs or Pistons are playing, you don’t have the ability to get a lead early and then “focus on the running game” to drain the clock, or bring in Tom Gordon and Mariano Rivera to end the game 2/3 of the way though.
3) As only a casual observer of the sport, one must wonder why the NHL bothers with the bits before the overtime & shootout.
paul 01.20.06 at 10:06 am
You’re coming to a realization that many football fans have had for decades. There it’s the final two minutes of each half that are typically worth watching, since they consist of actual play rather than guys standing around and setting up to play, ambling back to their positions after a play, or moseying on or off the field.
Eszter 01.20.06 at 10:31 am
Paul, I was under the impression that it’s harder to turn things around that quickly in football. But I don’t watch that sport nearly as much (more precisely: I watch some Northwestern games and that’s about it) so I’m hardly an informed commentator on that front.
Mark 01.20.06 at 11:58 am
The players compete in the forth quarter of NBA games, and competition is what generates real interest for most viewers. The compelling basketball of the NCAA tournament between teams with obvious weaknesses says to me that the showy athletecism of the highlights is not what makes a game great. I think most football(American), baseball, hockey and soccer players put out more in the earlier phases of their games than NBA players.
Bro. Bartleby 01.20.06 at 12:59 pm
Bro. Dan, Most men persevere from conditioning, it is the females who joy in all the endless anticipations and expectancy in all things, while we men do prefer the simple and uncomplicated resolution, the solution, the climax … or at least the hope for such a finale.
Gray Lensman 01.20.06 at 2:57 pm
I prefer baseball.
radek 01.20.06 at 7:42 pm
I think one sport where you get the same phenomenon except on the individual level is road bicycle racing. You got your peleton and then you got guys trying to make breaks for it (analogous to one team or another trying to get a hefty lead going into fourth quarter). In the end it usually comes down to a small group of riders battling it out in the final stretch – just like the last seconds of a basketball game this is where most of the excitement is.
As a consequence both sports are good for background for most of their duration – you do other stuff like cook or drink beer with your friends (is this done with bicycle racing?) while occasionally paying attention to shifts in the momentum of the game or the strategies of the players. Then you settle down and watch the cresecendo.
Anyway. World Cup Soccer and NCAA Football are the only sports worth getting worked up about. Even with Boston in the World Series.
nick s 01.20.06 at 9:43 pm
There are few sporting situations more boring than the fourth quarter in an (American) football game when the score is lopsided.
I think one sport where you get the same phenomenon except on the individual level is road bicycle racing.
Yes, those who watch the first hours of a TDF stage are, to some extent, beyond salvation. I count myself among them.
Carl 01.23.06 at 9:05 am
My solution is that instead of one 48-minute game, that NBA teams play a best-of-five set of 12-minute games. You get all the excitement of the fourth quarter, up to five times in a night.
spurwing plover 01.24.06 at 12:27 am
The BULLS just have,nt been the same since they no longer have MICHEAL JORDAN
Eszter 01.24.06 at 7:57 am
Carl, I posted a similar idea here.
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