Blair has “called the UK general election for May the 5th”:http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4409935.stm . Though the polls seem to be indicating a Tory surge, the “current odds at bluesq”:http://www.bluesq.com/bet?action=go_events&type_id=850 are Labour 1/14, Tories 13/2, and LibDems 100/1.
{ 13 comments }
des von bladet 04.05.05 at 7:07 am
That link misbehaves: is it that I am not a member?
Fellow sufferers may prefer Paddy Power, although the Tories are only at 6-1.
Is 100-1 a generic upper bound, BTW? Because frankly I have a better chance of being elected Pope than the Lib-Dems have of forming the next government.
Simstim 04.05.05 at 7:26 am
I’m so excited.
Tom T. 04.05.05 at 7:31 am
Has anyone ever studied the predictive power of these bookmaking shops? The various political futures markets in the US have come under fire here at CT quite a bit, so I’m wondering whether the UK oddsmakers are any more or less reliable.
jet 04.05.05 at 7:43 am
Tom T,
I thought they came under fire here for being only as accurate or only slightly more accurate than public polls. Still a good tool for prediction.
Andrew Brown 04.05.05 at 9:16 am
Herrn von Bladet for Pope! The bandwagon starts now.
des von bladet 04.05.05 at 9:20 am
But I’m the Holy Roman Emperor! I can’t be Pope as well, can I?
shwe 04.05.05 at 9:41 am
Try http://www.politicalbetting.com
Simstim 04.05.05 at 10:59 am
I reckon a hung parliament is not out of the question (in fact, it’s what I’m hoping for) so the Lib Dems may end up in government, just not solely so.
Matt McGrattan 04.05.05 at 12:41 pm
A hung parliament might be the best outcome. Maybe a Lib-Lab coalition.
Gregory VII 04.05.05 at 1:01 pm
But I’m the Holy Roman Emperor! I can’t be Pope as well, can I?
Your Majesty would have to abdicate first, of course. We would be happy to explain to Your Majesty why being elevated to the papacy would be a promotion.
John Quiggin 04.05.05 at 2:53 pm
The markets are making a pretty clear prediction. But even allowing for the recent rise in Tory support, the polls are making the same prediction about equally clearly.
des von bladet 04.07.05 at 4:51 am
Gregory VII: Our Imperial Majesty remains slightly concerned about the concubine issue. We’ve heard some frankly rather worrying rumours about the number of concubines the Pope is allocated.
des von bladet 04.07.05 at 4:52 am
Oh, and a hung parliament would give the LibDems what they’ve always wanted: power without responsibility. It would be rubbish, for sure.
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