Weltmeisterschaft 2006

I’d put Brazil or Argentina higher than England who will be lucky to make it to the semis. Also, thanks for reminding me early that I should avoid England for the majority of next summer.

England clearly fancy themselves this time and look strong in every area except goalkeeper

I have to take issue with this. When England faced France in Euro 2004, they were two world-class sides with distinctly second class keepers (David James and Fabien Barthez). Since then, James has been definitively dropped. Paul Robinson has been showing both talent and consistency for spurs, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Nigel Martyn get a call come June.
If England have a weakness, it is in the holding midfield position. Neither Gerrard nor Lampard are well suited to that role, and Nicky Butt is struggling to hold a place in second-bottom Birmingham’s starting 11. Ledley King has been used in this capacity,but infrequently and usually as a sub.

Less serious than England’s lack of a defensive midfielder are their lack of a proper target man, and the eternal problem of who to start on the left. Joe Cole should solve the latter problem (though he tends to make the team a bit narrow), and Crouch may help the former.

All the same, England have a shot: there’s a good bit of rancor and disharmony in the Argentina camp, the Netherlands have a very young squad, and Brazil, well, um…. there’s always hope.

Correction: better odds for USA.

89-1 on the US looks like damn good odds. They’re a pretty good side (Quarter-finals last time) and, IIRC, a few of their players are based in Germany which gives them a bit of an advantage.

That said, because of the way the draw works, unless they get placed with one of the weaker European non-seeds, they’re likely to be in the ‘group of death’, but even though it’ll be tough, I’d say they have better than a 1-in-90 chance of winning it.

Look, I love the Yanks and their spirited, naive football, but 89-1 is just an excess of foolish American dollars being soaked up by the market. They have far less than a 1 in 90 chance of winning. Quarterfinalists in 2002 was an overachievement.

That said, there’s a curious curse on the favorite in the group with the USA (e.g., England in 1950, Colombia in 1994, Portugal in 2002).

Or make that “as high as they are”

Which is how I had it originally.

England are apparently rated 2 in the world on FIFA’s current rankings, but then FIFA’s rankings are a bit mad. Actually I thought England had a better chance at the last world cup. They were then a better team than Germany, who were the eventual finalists.

Why does anybody who is not English think the English have a shot, anyway?

I’m from San Francisco, and here is why I think England have a shot:

1. Defense:
While lack of depth on the flanks is a potential worry, the first choice English back four are, without qualification, the best in the world. Sol Campbell and John Terry are flat out dominating even on their off days (and serious threats at set pieces). Ferdinand perhaps less so, but he has loads of pace and is quite comfortable on the ball or shepherding the ball out of defense. Ashley Cole is much better defensively than Roberto Carlos, and though he may not have Carlos’ shot, he’s confident and dangerous running on to the left flank. Gary Neville is, IMO, as underrated as he is consistent;he’s experienced,industrious, and puts in a better cross than most give him credit for.

2.Industry:
Here is where the frenetic pace of English football pays off: every single member of the England squad (with the exception perhaps of Jermaine Defoe) is willing and able to put in a tackle in any part of the pitch at any stage of the game. Woe be it to the defender dawdling on the ball within fifteen yards of Rooney, and rushed clearances will find Terry’s head sooner than they will an attacker’s. Cole, Gerrard, Lampard, and Beckham are all creative and incisive attackers who can nonetheless deny opponents time and space.

3.Talent
Sven may employ rather conservative tactics, but this can’t completely mask the sheer talent that England possess. Wayne Rooney can score the most unlikely goals when the mood takes him, and Owen is both patient and clinical. I’m not sure about this, but I imagine Owen’s goals to games ratio in La Liga would compare quite favorably to that of Ronaldinho or Ronaldo (and most of Owen’s appearances were as a subsitute). Lampard is always a threat, and Gerrard demonstrated his quality on a certain night in Istanbul not too long ago. They might not have a Ronaldinho or Adriano, but they do have many and varied attacking threats.

I will concede that Brazil are favorites, and justifiably so. However, their defense is paper thin: Luisao is by no means world-class and Roque Junior couldn’t hold a starting place at Leeds(!). Furthermore, any Brazil player is liable to go into a sulk at any moment (c.f. Ronaldinho in 2002). Like Argentina,they haven’t had stable management for a while, and frequently the European-based players fail to participate in friendlies, training, and even minor tournaments (last Confederations cup).

I do not mean to suggest that an English victory is particularly likely. As has been noted, England have their problems, and chronically underperform, but I can quite confidently assert that they have a shot.

Look, I love the Yanks and their spirited, naive football, but 89-1 is just an excess of foolish American dollars being soaked up by the market. They have far less than a 1 in 90 chance of winning. Quarterfinalists in 2002 was an overachievement.

Hmmm. In 2002, the U.S. outplayed runner-up Germany pretty obviously. Only spectacular goal play and one set-piece goal saved Germany. In this cup, Mexico is a 5 seed and the U.S. is a superior team (Mexico hasn’t been able to beat the U.S. anywhere other than Mexico City for several years). I don’t think there’s much doubt that the U.S. world cup team is a much likely bet than the U.S. hockey team was in the 1980 Olympics.

(Of course, I wrote that before checking the draw–the U.S. got hosed pretty badly there. Both Italy and the Czechs?)

There was a survey of yesterday of Swedish football figures says that England along with Trididad and Togo were our dream opponents, so they can’t think oo highly of them. We avtually ened up with England, Trindidad and Paraguay, so they’re all very happy now.

Oranje boven!

OK, I’d like to retract the idea that the US are good value now that they’ve landed in one of the two groups of death. (They’ve actually gone out to 94-1 on Betfair now)

Hektor – I believe they’d have actually taken Serbia & Montenegro’s place in group C, rather than Ivory Coast’s, though they’re probably wishing they’d got Costa Rica or South Korea’s instead.

Oh, and did anyone else find themselves wishing Poland had been drawn into the second spot in Germany’s group, so they’d get to play the opening match against them?

well, well, everybody please keep in mind that Denmark (if you’re too young, old or haven’t been paying attention – I kid you not), yes, DENMARK managed to win the European championships in 1992…

hmmm, had I only bet a couple of 1000 on Denmark then …

I am afraid the Dutch team is indeed overrated, but that could be to their advantage. Hubris has all too often made them selfdestruct.

One interesting detail: Ivory Coast player Salomon Kalou has been applying for Dutch citizenship. So far it has been denied. Should he be naturalised, he’ll end up playing against his ‘former’ country. The Dutch will be playing either with Kalou or against him. Good stuff for a debate on immigration.

A foolproof way to make lots of money on british based exchanges is to lay ENG ER LAN AND in all major international sporting events in which they compete.
No matter how good or bad their teams are or what their real chances of winning are they will always be bought at a huge discount to the real odds by punters who bet with their hearts.

Czechs are very good, and the way Italy is playing – relying mostly on their reputation, and are a shadow of former selves – the USA has a slim, but not impossible, chance of getting second. Clearly, playing in Europe helps the azzurri. But at the end, I think we’ll have to suffer through another Brazilian victory.