There’s not much I can do about it, but I still spend a lot of time thinking about what I, and others outside the US, should do if that country ceases to be a democracy. But, it doesn’t seem as if lots of other people are thinking this way. One possibility is that people just don’t want to think about it. Another, though, is that I’ve overestimated the probability of this outcome.
To check on this, I set up a flowchart using a free online program called drawio. Here;s what I came up with
I hope it’s self-explanatory. The bold numbers next to the boxes are the probability of reaching that box. The numbers next to arrows coming out of decision nodes (diamonds) are the probability of that decision.
I also apologize in advance if there are any arithmetic errors – my degree in pure mathematics doesn’t insulate me against them.
If the US were remotely normal, every entry on the left-hand edge ought to be equal to 1. Harris should be a sure winner, Trump shouldn’t find any supporters for a coup, the MAGA Republicans in Congress should be unelectable and the moderate program proposed by Harris should be successful enough that Trumpism would be defeated forever.
But that’s not the case. There are two end points in which US democracy survives, with a total probability (excessively precise) of 0.46, and one where it ends, with a probability of 0.54. By replacing my probabilities at the decision nodes with your own, you can come up with your own numbers. Or you may feel that I’ve missed crucial pathways. I’d be interested in comments on either line.
Note: Any Thälmann-style comments (such as “After Trump, us” or “Dems are social fascists anyway”) will be blocked and deleted.
{ 6 comments… read them below or add one }
Chet Murthy 10.28.24 at 6:46 am
And you’ve left out:
(1) structurally the US system of government favors Republicans
(2) now that they’ve tasted MAGA and the power it gives them, it’s unlikely they go back to being sane
So it follows (as Murc of Murc’s Law put it once) it’s a lead-pipe cinch that they’ll try again, and after enough tries they’ll succeed. That is to say, it’s a lead-pipe cinch that sometime in the next 15-20 years they’ll take the trifecta, and American Democracy will just end.
Stephen 10.28.24 at 7:16 am
I think you may have missed one pathway, by not allowing for the unusual (by non-US standards) delay between the result of the presidential election been declared, and the new president taking over.
Very possibly, soon after Trump being declared the winner but while Biden remained in office there might be what you could call “popular resistance”, in the form of riots, arson and so forth, which would significantly reduce the chance of democracy surviving.
I wish I did not have to make this comment. Let’s hope for the best.
Chet Murthy 10.28.24 at 7:53 am
2: why is that the end of democracy ? If TCFG is declared the winner, then a civil resistance and revolution (against TCFG) would be to -re-establish- democracy, not to end it. It’s the installation of TCFG that would most likely end democracy. I mean, he -did- try to overturn our Republic with a coup, remember. And it wouldn’t be some sort of “popular resistance” of the form you describe, b/c that is easily put down by organized armed force.
Now maybe you mean that some “popular uprising” would demand that TCFG be installed earlier than Jan 20. I don’t know where that leads, though I’d think that the wise men who run the country (billionaires, SCOTUS justices) would counsel him that ten weeks is not long to wait.
J-D 10.28.24 at 7:59 am
It would be an interesting time to be a fly on the wall at the International Democracy Union.
(For those who haven’t heard of the IDU, here you go:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Democracy_Union
https://www.idu.org)
John Q 10.28.24 at 8:55 am
If anyone wants evidence that democracy is doomed, Stephen @2 is happy to provide it. For those who can’t decode, he is equating the overwhelmingly peaceful BLM protests (at least if we exclude murders committed by rightwing counterprotestors) with Trump’s attempt to overthrow democracy.
Any protest against Trump will be used as an excuse for Enabling Acts and Stephen will be cheering him on.
John T 10.28.24 at 9:35 am
I think this chart has a lot of the right ideas but is a bit too binary. For example, in between ‘Trump does govern constitutionally’ and ‘does not govern constitutionally’ is ‘governs in a way that heavily abrades the edges of what is constitutional, weakening American democracy but leaving enough space for a electoral reversal in 2028’. As in other slips to authoritarianism, each election sets up for a worse result next time, but there can be recovery within the democracy that remains (e.g. Poland).