Was Suez Worse than Iraq?

by Harry on March 11, 2007

Right now it’s incredibly hard to read about Suez without thinking about Iraq, and it’s a mark of Peter Hennessy’s confidence that Iraq will long be remembered as a disaster of epic scale that he repeatedly draws comparisons between the two events in his marvelous new book, Having it So Good (UK), (US). The book is a history of Britain in the 1950’s, and I’ll impose a brief review on you later. Suez doesn’t dominate the book, but it is the pivotal moment of the decade if not, in fact, the whole postwar period in terms of Britain’s relationship with the world. And the parallels are striking. In both cases, it is clear that a small handful of policymakers were determined to undermine the targeted dictator, and were not about to be deflected by stupid facts. In both cases democratic scrutiny simply didn’t operate; neither Blair/Bush nor Eden were subject to the kind of hard questioning by their cabinet colleagues that should have stopped them, or at least forced them to act less precipitously. And in each case, as we know only too well in the case of Iraq, neither politicians nor military had any kind of long term plan.

But surely, surely, Suez was nowhere near as disastrous in terms of human carnage? Surely, because the Americans acted so, well, correctly, forcing the Brits to back off, the day was saved, if not for Eden, for the world? Surely my title question is ludicrous? That’s what I’d have thought. (Eszter, at least, might want to read on.)

Now, I’m no historian, I just like reading about these things. And every Briton is aware that our adventure in Suez deprived our government of the ability to protest the Soviet invasion of Hungary, our government’s response to which was at least as shameful as its involvement in Suez. But Hennessy reveals, in a footnote, that a forthcoming book (for which I cannot find any details, but as soon as I do I’ll get it and report back) by Jonathan Haslam shows that:

the Anglo-French invasion had the unanticipated effect of precipitating the overthrow of the anti-communist regime in Hungary by the Red Army. It reversed a decision taken by the Soviet leadership on 30 October to pull out completely and rearrange relations with its unhappy neighbour on a more equitable basis.

Just re-read that a few times. I had to stop reading for a couple of days to absorb the enormity of it. This is, of course, good news for Bush and Blair. Iraq has to get a lot worse before they can claim Eden’s mantle.

{ 68 comments }

1

rd 03.11.07 at 9:41 pm

I’m perfectly willing to say the Suez invasion was wrong, and that it was catastrophically harmful if the Soviets were really suddenly diverted from loosening their control over Hungary, and presumably the rest of Eastern Europe shortly afterwards. (Though I’ll need to see some pretty strong evidence to actually believe that.)

But in terms of the Middle East, would the consequences (as opposed to the morality) of letting the invasion go forward have actually been that awful? As it was, stopping the invasion immensely raised the prestige of Arab nationalist authoritarians in the Nasser mold. Letting it go forward would, I guess, have given a shot in the arm to communist parties and direct Soviet influence in the region. (Which is what Eisenhower feared and what drove him to intercede.) I can see a case for Communist Syria being worse than Baathist Syria, but the difference doesn’t seem great enough to warrant calling Suez a calamity narrowly avoided.

This is assuming Britain and France really did just want to take the canal and thereby undermine Nasser, not a full fledged occupation or an attempt to directly overthrow him. I think it likely that’s all they did want. They didn’t give a damn who exactly ran Egypt, so long as they were non-communist and less troublesome than Nasser.

2

harry b 03.11.07 at 9:50 pm

I simply have no way of judging the effects on the middle east — and I certainly wasn’t calling it a calamity narrowly avoided. The effects on Hungary, the Eastern bloc, and thereby the world, of what actually happened, were what I was referring to, on the assumption that Haslam is right (which I presume he is) and a bunch of other, more conjectural but not ridiculous, counterfactuals.

3

magistra 03.11.07 at 9:51 pm

From my very limited knowledge of the period, I thought the main significance of Suez to Hungary was that the Russians changed their minds because they saw that the West was distracted and therefore wouldn’t be able to make any effective response to an invasion. In which case without Suez it might just mean that they’d have sent the tanks in the next time there was a crisis in the West.
But if you take this distraction angle, consider all the issues that the Iraq War has distracted the West from. The mess in Afghanistan is immeasurably greater than it could have been because the US government lost interest and wanted a new war. That’s ignoring all the additional problems caused by not paying attention to the Palestinian question, Dafur, North Korea etc. On that score, I think Iraq remains a bigger disaster than Suez even ignoring what happens in Iraq itself.

4

David Weman 03.11.07 at 9:53 pm

Why do you presume he is? I can’t believe it’s true.

5

abb1 03.11.07 at 10:09 pm

Yeah, the cold war is full of stories and speculations like this. But as long as the game goes on, our great leaders always prefer to bet the whole farm rather than trying to act rationally. Eisenhower and Khrushchev as individuals were probably the least worse of them all, but that didn’t help much.

6

Slocum 03.11.07 at 10:33 pm

The mess in Afghanistan is immeasurably greater than it could have been because the US government lost interest and wanted a new war.

Of course, it may well be that the mess in Afghanistan is immeasurably less than it could have been because Al Queda, too, has seen Iraq, not Afghanistan, as the main front and has focused its energies and resources there. One of the things one might reasonably expect after a near-term U.S. pullout from Iraq would be for Al Queda then to declare victory in Iraq and refocus its energies on Afghanistan to see if they can make the same formula work there (indiscriminate civilian slaughter via suicide bombers + roadside bombs directed at troops -> loss of support in the U.S. -> withdrawal).

As for Suez — I’m pretty skeptical that this was decisive in Hungary (except possibly with respect to timing) given Soviet actions in East Germany in ’53 and Czechoslovakia in ’68. I’d say that now the most salient aspect of the Suez crisis is the degree to which it has almost completely faded from popular memory. The Cuban missile crisis remains well-known, but Suez virtually never comes up (in the U.S. anyway, maybe things are different in the U.K.)

7

dearieme 03.11.07 at 10:59 pm

Suez was bad – it would have been better not to start it, and possibly better to have finished it, but to begin it and then withdraw was hopelessly silly. But my guess is that Iraq will prove to have been far worse. Except for one point. Bush and Blair are chumps – one can expect no better of them than this horror show. Whereas Eden had once been a top-flight fellow and it is very sobering to reflect that a man of his calibre could be so bloody stupid.

8

BillCinSD 03.11.07 at 11:29 pm

From my reading, the Suez mainly caused the US and UN (I don’t know about the UK) to be very slow in responding to requests from the Nagy government so that they essentially abandoned them. The effect on the Soviets is less easy to see but as the time when the pullout might have been considered real was probably less than 12 hours, certainly less than 24, it seems more like an internal disagreement or just confusion than the Suez incident.

9

engels 03.11.07 at 11:33 pm

Even if we grant Haslan’s causal claim, that’s a long way from showing that Eden may be held responsible for the unforeseen (and perhaps unforeseeable) distant effects of his actions on the minds of Soviet decision makers. I don’t see that you have established that what happened in Hungary was connected in any morally significant way with what happened in Suez, rather than, say, merely being an entirely accidental consequence, an irony of history. If not, that I don’t think it is fair to see the “badness” of the latter event as inhering in Suez.

(Admittedly, I suppose you wouldn’t have to worry about this if you were a kind of very full-blooded direct consequentialist, but I don’t think you are, are you?)

10

Tom T. 03.11.07 at 11:59 pm

Harry, am I reading it right that Haslam is saying that the Soviets were emboldened by the invasion itself, rather than by the stoppage of it?

As for Engels’ point in #8, wasn’t it part of the overarching Cold War mindset that any foreign policy choice by a Western power had to be evaluated through the lens of “What will the Soviets think?”

11

Hidari 03.12.07 at 12:03 am

‘I’d say that now the most salient aspect of the Suez crisis is the degree to which it has almost completely faded from popular memory’.

Right, I am guessing you CAN’T be British then, because believe me, Suez is lodged in the British imagination on a far deeper level than almost any other events post 1945, and I include Vietnam and 1989 in that. Because Suez demonstrated that the four hundred year old British Empire was over.

OF COURSE the Americans have forgotten about it: they helped to dismantle the British Empire, except for the bits (in the middle east) they simply took over. Why should they care?

Oh and please spare me the ‘Al-Qaeda in Iraq’ thing as though this was a completely unexpected bolt from the blue. One of the key arguments against the invasion of Iraq was that Al-Qaeda would use this as an excuse to create a new Vietnam type situation, thus bolstering (or, essentially, recreating) Al-Qaeda, which was more or less wiped out by the invasion of Afghanistan. And that was precisely what happened: not only was it predictable it was, in fact, predicted.

Incidentally one of the key reasons the Russians could go into Czechoslovakia was because they could see that the Americans were bogged down in Vietnam. They could also see that the Americans had lost the moral advantage: after all, what the Russians did in Czechoslovakia was not very different than what the Americans were doing in Vietnam (well you could argue that in terms of firepower etc. what the Americans were doing was much worse, but you get the basic point).

This indicates what Iraq would have to achieve before it gets remembered in the same way as Suez does in Britain: Iraq would have to somehow bankrupt the US and bring about the end of its worldwide hegemony. Rome wasn’t burnt in a day, and all that, but there’s no sign (yet) that Iraq is going to get THAT bad, although it certainly might.

12

DC 03.12.07 at 12:08 am

But Engels, Harry B is presumably saying that the unintended consequences of the Suez disaster were worse than the unintended consequences of the Iraq war.

13

engels 03.12.07 at 12:28 am

DC – The post didn’t seem to me to be just totting up all the consequences of Suez, morally significant or not, but passing a general moral judgment on Suez, and on Eden personally, for example:

Iraq has to get a lot worse before [Bush and Blair] can claim Eden’s mantle.

but I could well have misunderstood.

14

Andrew 03.12.07 at 2:14 am

hidari is right: Suez fell like a thunderclap on the British psyche.

It was a psychological deathblow to the British Empire. It also established the principle, which ironically Blair was following as he took Britain into Iraq beside Bush, that the UK does not set its foreign policy against the US.

A couple of Guardian journalists about 3-4 years back showed how virtually the whole of the British military effort, from nuclear submarines to intelligence, is inextricably linked to the US. My feeling is that the only way that the UK could begin to have a separate policy from the US is as part of a single European entity, which just is not going to happen.

De Gaulle was right.

15

Count Cant 03.12.07 at 2:17 am

“Right, I am guessing you CAN’T be British then…”

from what I understand, Suez ranks right up there among every Britain’s greatest grievances against the U.S., somewhere between Yorktown and Dick van Dyke’s attempt at a cockney accent in Mary Poppins.

16

deliasmith 03.12.07 at 2:19 am

So far unaddressed is Suez as a domestic political event: ‘We had not realised that our government was capable of such folly and such crookedness… Never since 1783 has Great Britain made herself so universally disliked. … Nations are said to have the governments they deserve. Let us show that we deserve better.’ Britain was at war when that was published in the editorial columns of The Observer. The editor and the newspaper survived, the Prime Minister did not.

17

Tom 03.12.07 at 2:29 am

good issue to think about. But the general understanding of our changing world is not that high. This is the most dramatic time for America to face: a fast changing world politics and business. The best book on these issues is: China and the new world order: how entrepreneurship, globalization, and borderless business are reshaping China and the world, by the most provocative Chinese reporter George Zhibin Gu, which is far better than Friedman’s world is flat.

18

harry b 03.12.07 at 2:47 am

I’ll answer other things tomorrow, but I have to say that if my fellowcountrymen object to Dick Van Dyke’s cockney accent (#15) they should just think themselves bloody lucky that he deigned to play the part. And I’ll add to count cant that, like Hennessy, I think the Americans behaved admirably.

19

roger 03.12.07 at 4:18 am

Well, let’s offer the plus side. The british certainly deserved to be kicked out of Egypt in every way, and their propping up of a fatuous corrupt king as a proxy sort of sapped any credibility they had left with the Egyptian population. But the best thing about Suez is that it established an American credibility in the Middle East that was a long time in decaying. It gave Kennedy the right and the arrogance to just tell the Saudis, end slavery now. It gave the U.S. credibility even with Egypt and Syria – I am pretty sure that there is no way Sadat could have made the moves he made if the U.S. had allowed Britain, France and Israel to pick the Egyptian army apart. That American credibility probably managed to make the nationalizations of oil not so disadvantageous to the West, which floated for its “thirty glorious years” up to the 70s on cheap oil.

The terrible reputation of Britain in the Middle East – from every Iranian I’ve ever talked to, Britain is hated much more than the U.S. (a country which the Iranians in the 90s even came to like) in Iran.

Nor, actually, do I think armed confrontation in Eastern Europe in 1956 would have been a pile of jelly beans. I’d even go so far as to say that Hungary, in 1956, still preserved truly fascist sectors, not surprising as the country had been an enthusiastically anti-semitic ally of Germany.

So the other side of the Suez debacle would be: thank God Eisenhower had the brains and the balls to see a bad idea and put the keebosh on it before it got out of hand.

20

roger 03.12.07 at 4:19 am

oops. “The terrible reputation of Britain in the Middle East is still current”…

21

MQ 03.12.07 at 5:59 am

Odd post…the Soviet invasion of Hungary, while a bad thing, was not anything like the humanitarian disaster the U.S. occupation of Iraq has been. Not even close, not even within an order of magnitude.

Of course, for all the unintended consequences of these things to be judged decades have to pass. An Austrian diplomatic mission to Serbia in 1914 was a far greater disaster than the invasion of Iraq, but who would have known that at the time?

22

John Quiggin 03.12.07 at 6:33 am

As far as consequentialism is concerned, this example (and even more so #21) points up the need to focus on foreseeable consequences. The bad consequences of Iraq were foreseeable and foreseen.

The fact that a crooked subterfuge like Suez would rebound badly ought to have been foreseen (of course, there was no public debate) but the simultaneous occurrence of the Hungarian revolution produced a worse outcome than average for this kind of caper.

23

lurking 03.12.07 at 7:54 am

For a counterfactual, imagine what Suez would have been if Eisenhower hadn’t intervened. An open-ended occupation of an Arab country by powers with no idea how to run the place and no exit strategy.

24

Hidari 03.12.07 at 7:58 am

‘But the best thing about Suez is that it established an American credibility in the Middle East that was a long time in decaying. It gave Kennedy the right and the arrogance to just tell the Saudis, end slavery now.’

Hmmm…Well I am actually reading House of Saud by Said K. Aburish, and it doesn’t mention anything about THAT. According to Aburish (who, unusually for someone on the ‘left’ likes and admires Kennedy) Kennedy liked Nasser, and generally speaking preferred Arab nationalism (as represented by Nasser) to the old Saudi corruption (the two main villains in Aburish’s book are Lyndon Johnson and Ronald Reagan, although I imagine he would argue that Dubya is worse than both of them).

But according to Aburish, Kennedy told the Saudis to end slavery (an act, incidentally, which tells us precisely who is the master and who is the ‘dog’ in this relationship: the Americans told the Saudis to end slavery and the Saudis just did it) as part of a long term plan to wean America from supporting the various Arab kleptocracies: a plan that was thrown into reverse by Lyndon Johnson (the Vietnam war, you see, needed a lot of oil to be kept going) and was then finally abandoned by Reagan.

25

ejh 03.12.07 at 8:12 am

Aburish does say in A Brutal Friendship (if I’m remembering correctly, which I wouldn’t rely on) that he liked the first postwar generation of American operatives in the Middle East because they didn’t like colonialism much. But given the choice between rejecting intervention and supporting it they opted for the latter and after that they were as bad as the British.

The Suez/Iraq linkage is certainly useful insofar as it invites the question “has there been any comparable foreign policy stupidity in the fifty years intervening?” as well as supplying the answer “very obviously not”. This is probably why the remaining pro-war people need to be so hysterical (Cohen, Harry’s Place etc) because there’s no other way of avoiding the question.

Dick van Dyke’s attempt at a cockney accent in Mary Poppins.

Don’t forget that woman in Frasier.

26

abb1 03.12.07 at 9:40 am

Well, another linkage is that now, 50 years later, Arab nationalism is finally gone, dead, destroyed, completely out of the way – replaced by much more advantageous paradigm of endless sectarian infighting. Mission accomplished, indeed.

27

Hidari 03.12.07 at 10:03 am

‘Aburish does say in A Brutal Friendship (if I’m remembering correctly, which I wouldn’t rely on) that he liked the first postwar generation of American operatives in the Middle East because they didn’t like colonialism much.’

Aburish actually says that the British were better than the Americans. He says (and I’m just passing this information on for what it’s worth) that the British, for all their faults, really did take their ‘civilise the world’ mission seriously: so, for example, they did put pressure on the Saudis to improve their human rights records. This is because, of course, British involvement in Saudi goes way back before they knew the Saudis had oil.

But the Americans moved in in the late ’30s and then even more so, in the late ’40s purely and simply because of oil. Aburish argues that American involvement in Saudi came, purely and simply, because the big oil companies put pressure on the American government to give the Saudis everything they wanted in exchange for oil concessions and etc.

So in the ’50s (in fact, until Kennedy) the Americans didn’t give a toss that Saudi had legalised slavery. In the same way that nobody gives a toss nowadays that the Saudis (apparently) use crucifixion as an execution method. The western media don’t cover this (the Western media never cover Saudi human rights abuses, unless their political and financial masters judge it to be expedient), politicians never raise it: no one cares. Because the relationship is PURELY about money and power; there is no nonsense about a ‘civilising mission’ or ‘democratisation’ (it’s only when you read a bit about Western involvement in the Middle East since the war that you realise just to what extent Western prattling about democracy is a crock of shit. I mean obviously everyone knows that in the broadest sense it’s a crock, but when you see the details, you realise just WHY the rest of the world is laughing at us for believing this crap).

28

Doug 03.12.07 at 10:33 am

My copy is elsewhere just now so I can’t cite chapter and verse, but William Taubman’s 2003 biography of Khrushchev does mention the reversal on the decision about Hungary, and I believe he writes that Suez was part of the thinking. There were other internal currents of opinion too, but the narrow factual claim by Haslam may well be correct.

29

Alex 03.12.07 at 11:53 am

Alternatively, did the appearance – the reality, in fact – of Western disunity signal that the Soviet Union could get away with it?

An underestimated factor in the decision to stop was spurious intelligence that reached JIC/ME of Soviet aircraft overflying Turkey on their way to reinforce Egypt. According to Peter Hennessy’s The Prime Minister, quoting archival references I’d have to look up, this was included both in Cabinet, PM’s (Old Stripey) and the Queen’s briefings, although it turned out to be utter tosh.

I’ve always wondered where that information came from. Does anyone else think it was the CIA? JIC’s assessments were, up until then, and after the crisis, that the Soviet Union would not do anything for fear of a global crisis, so it was a significant change.

Also, the UK political class seems to have internalised Suez as a massive psychic trauma, even if the policy consequences were not all that great, whereas the French don’t care all that much. Why?

30

chris y 03.12.07 at 12:12 pm

It was a psychological deathblow to the British Empire. It also established the principle, which ironically Blair was following as he took Britain into Iraq beside Bush, that the UK does not set its foreign policy against the US.

This is true only because public perception was so far behind the official reality. The “jewel in the crown” of empire, India, had been independent for nearly 10 years at the time of Suez; so had mandatory Palestine. Ghana became independent less than 6 months later – hardly suggestive of causation – and independence dates for most of the rest of the empire had been pencilled in long before.

What Suez did demonstrate, to the government rather than the League of Empire Loyalists, was that Britain had no cards in its hand at the Middle East oil table. Up to that point, Britain and France had believed that they had comparable freedom of ad hoc military intervention to the United States. Subsequently, such adventures were far more restrained and generally undertaken only with American permission.

31

Slocum 03.12.07 at 12:46 pm

hidari: Right, I am guessing you CAN’T be British then

Yes, well I mentioned that I was talking about how Suez is viewed in the U.S. (the short answer is — it’s not. Ask most Americans who weren’t alive in 1956 about the Suez crisis and you’d get a blank stare — completely unlike the Cuban Missile Crisis, or the Korean War, or the Rosenberg trial or Sputnik). Among best remembered events of that era, Suez would be way down the list.

because believe me, Suez is lodged in the British imagination on a far deeper level than almost any other events post 1945, and I include Vietnam and 1989 in that. Because Suez demonstrated that the four hundred year old British Empire was over.

I’d have thought the fact that the empire would soon be a thing of the past was pretty obvious when India, Pakistan, and Burma all departed almost a decade earlier.

Oh and please spare me the ‘Al-Qaeda in Iraq’ thing as though this was a completely unexpected bolt from the blue.

I didn’t claim it was a ‘bolt from the blue’ — only that now, Afghanistan might fare more poorly following a withdrawal from Iraq.

Incidentally one of the key reasons the Russians could go into Czechoslovakia was because they could see that the Americans were bogged down in Vietnam.

The Soviets knocked down uprisings in Eastern Europe repeatedly over the decades (East Germany, Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Poland). Somehow they always found conditions suitable to do so (up until they finally flinched in 1989, that is).

ejh: The Suez/Iraq linkage is certainly useful insofar as it invites the question “has there been any comparable foreign policy stupidity in the fifty years intervening?” as well as supplying the answer “very obviously not”.

Very obviously not? So we’ve forgotten Vietnam which cost the U.S. > 50,000 dead and set off a decade of social upheaval in the U.S., including domestic revolutionary/terrorist underground organizations? Hell, domestically the U.S. is has been more tranquil during this ‘greatest ever blunder’ than during the Clinton years (with Waco, Ruby Ridge, and Oklahoma City — which, unlike 9/11 were all home grown). Unless things change dramatically, Iraq will end up having little effect on U.S. politics and almost none on U.S. society. It doesn’t seem at all possible that Iraq will be remembered in the U.S. as having had anything close to the impact of Vietnam.

And as ‘greatest blunders’ go, have we forgotten, too, the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan which failed miserably and hastened the end of the Soviet Union itself?

32

Stuart 03.12.07 at 1:30 pm

from what I understand, Suez ranks right up there among every Britain’s greatest grievances against the U.S., somewhere between Yorktown and Dick van Dyke’s attempt at a cockney accent in Mary Poppins.

I would imagine thats only true of Britons over age 40 in the main, the last two generations generally probably have little interest in either empire or its decline. To take an example of why, consider the history curriculum when I went through school in the 80s – we had both British history (going from around 1066 mainly, and up to the end of the Victorian era, covering mostly wars with France, notable kings/queens, industrialisation, civil war and a few other aspects) and World History (running from 1914 basically up to Vietnam, and with almost no reference to events like Suez that I remember, mostly concentrating on the World Wars, the League of Nations, and the Cold War basically).

33

Hidari 03.12.07 at 1:33 pm

‘I’d have thought the fact that the empire would soon be a thing of the past was pretty obvious when India, Pakistan, and Burma all departed almost a decade earlier.’

Like I say this only goes to show that you are not British. Like most American right wingers, you ignore or at least downplay the extent to which Imperial values motived British foreign policy, well into the sixties (and, some would argue, the early to mid ‘seventies). Remember, Churchill (one of the most aggressively pro-Empire politicians of the 20th century) had retired from being Prime Minister the previous year. And to Churchill, and the Tory party which he led:

a: Giving India and Pakistan their freedom had been a mistake but…
b: it was a ‘one off’.

Churchill governed the country (until, I repeat, 1955) with the assumption that Britain had the Empire, that Britain would always have the Empire, and that Britain could and should intervene in the affairs of any country of the world to further Britain’s (financial) interests: hence his support of the Mossadegh coup. (Americans try and pretend this was about ‘Communism’ but it was clearly an Imperial project).

And there were undoubtedly many many millions of people in the UK who agreed with him. It was Suez that first really demonstrated to the British that Britain’s Imperial days were over, although large elements of the civil service and the intelligentsia didn’t get the message until the ‘Winds of Change’ Speech in 1960. Then, and only then (beginning in 1961) did Britain begin a serious programme of decolonisation.

34

chris y 03.12.07 at 2:13 pm

@32. I AM British, and I repeat my point at 29 above that you’re making the mistake of confusing popular emotion with establishment policy. The strategy of conceding independence to any imperial territory which was large enough to constitute a viable state was entrenched for many years before Suez, Churchill’s populist rhetoric notwithstanding. As a data point, my father joined the British Colonial Office in 1948 (under the Attlee government) and this project was explained during his induction.

Public opinion remained very divided. It’s often forgotten that there was strong anti-imperialist sentiment as well as pro- in 1950s Britain, especially in the Labour Party. But the myth of empire was long dead in the corridors of power. Where Suez affected the views of the elite was that prior to that adventure, Britain and France had believed that they shared with the United States the right “Every ten years or so, …to pick up some small crappy little country and throw it against the wall, just to show the world we mean business.” Suez forced them to rethink this outlook, it hardly affected their view of the formal empire at all.

35

harry b 03.12.07 at 2:33 pm

engels — I promise that I’ll answer your question to me, I just can’t just give it the full attention it needs at the moment.

Two clarifications. 1) Hennessy is very good on the “retreat from Empire” question. He documents the debates within the ruling elite on this. All parties agreed that a retreat from empire was essential, from immediately after the war, and they disagreed only on the timetable. Things went much quicker, in the end, than anyone expected, but not quicker than some wanted. Butler seems to have been a major player in speeding things up, with Macmillan giving him authority but not much encouragement. The Winds of Change speech put into public consciousness something that was already well under way, and was M’s first public indication that he was more or less on Butler’s side.

2) Frasier — both Jane Leeves and Millicent Martin (who plays her mother) are as British as I am. Millicent Martin more so, probably! But neither is in the Dick Van Dyke league I’m afraid…

36

harry b 03.12.07 at 2:41 pm

Another comment. Both Churchill and Attlee remained leaders of their parties for so intolerably long because they wanted to protect their party (in A’s case) or the country (in C’s case) from their likely successors. Attlee knew that Morrison would be a disaster for the Labour Party, and was hanging on in the hope that Bevan would mature into a good leader, or at least that Morrison would become disqualified. Churchill had serious doubts about Eden’s suitability for the job of PM. Hennessy is a bit soft on this, but it is clear that Churchill was basically incompetent for his last 3 years in office, and should have been persuaded to leave, and also that Eden was, despite dearieme’s quite correct remarks at the top of the thread, quite unsuited. Since there was no semblance of democracy within the Tory party it speaks very ill of the grandees that they inflicted all this on the country, when both Butler and Macmillan were clearly capable and ready to lead both country and party.

37

Glorious Godfrey 03.12.07 at 2:46 pm

Also, the UK political class seems to have internalised Suez as a massive psychic trauma, even if the policy consequences were not all that great, whereas the French don’t care all that much. Why?

The British public and to a lesser extent the political class, having been spared the Nazi occupation, arguably had a stronger belief in the country’s status as a “victor nation” than the French.

Also, the Algerian war of independence was on in 1956. That one proved traumatic enough.

Iraq has to get a lot worse before (Bush and Blair) can claim Eden’s mantle.

I don’t know, really. It’s a pretty safe bet that the mess in Iraq is not going to be conducive to a less authoritarian environment in the region. Among many other things, and seeing how the notion of “American sponsorship of democracy” in the Middle East has effectively turned out to be an obscene joke, the voices* that disavow democracy tout court have become stronger.

There’s no reason to think that the repercussions of this blunder won’t be felt for decades.

*: The identification of those voices is, of course, a topic all of its own, and the object of much equivocation in mainstream media outlets.

38

abb1 03.12.07 at 3:09 pm

…and seeing how the notion of “American sponsorship of democracy” in the Middle East has effectively turned out to be an obscene joke, the voices* that disavow democracy…

I wouldn’t put it that way exactly. Rather it’s that for all the former and current colonies and semi-colonies achieving independence is so much higher a priority than democracy. The first goal is to achieve independence, the second is to secure independence, and only then their political systems start evolving.

And now the region has been rolled back 40-50-60 years to the point where they need to fight for independence again and struggle to maintain it, which is done best with internal power consolidation, not democracy.

39

Glorious Godfrey 03.12.07 at 3:09 pm

To clarify: the Soviet block held fast in spite of the ideological waywardness of Yugoslavia or the USSR’s estrangement with China (which allowed in turn, in 1968, Albania’s withdrawal from the Warsaw Pact). Those were all clear indications of the very real limits of Soviet power.

It’s anybody’s guess what would have happened in the wake of a Soviet pullout from Hungary. An early Western “victory” in the Cold War sounds far-fetched, though. This diminishes the enormity of the alleged unintended consequences of Suez somewhat, I reckon.

40

ejh 03.12.07 at 3:37 pm

Had Slocum noticed that my reference was to British foreign policy rather than American (or anybody else’s) a certain amount of time and rhetoric would not have been uselessly sacrificed at #31 above.

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Glorious Godfrey 03.12.07 at 4:04 pm

And now the region has been rolled back 40-50-60 years to the point where they need to fight for independence again and struggle to maintain it, which is done best with internal power consolidation, not democracy.

I don’t think that’s the case, really. The American power bid in the region is a failure. After all these years, people still tend to give too much credit to the robber barons in the US administration and the think-tanks, simply on the grounds that they call what is still the world’s most powerful country their barony.

The people in charge are not pulpy villains, just venal mediocrities with too much power. There’s no grand, hidden scheme to sow chaos in the region, no translation of “divide et impera” warblogger wank into consistent policy (bear in mind that I don’t think that the occupation’s futile flailing about to assert its control over the many Iraqi factions qualifies as policy, let alone as a consistent one). And if there is indeed one such plan, it only bears witness to these lads’ dilettantism and/or idiocy.

Their only plan consisted in shockin’ & awin’ their way into control of Iraq. The compliance of Iraqis under Ahmed “De Gaulle” Chalabi (or, failing that, Iyad “Adenauer” Allawi) was on the cards, not bedlam. Things have gotten out of hand, and it undercuts them.

The result is that, for the first time since the end of WWI, the main forces in the region will be autochthonous powers like Iran, Israel, Saudi Arabia or Turkey. The problem is that this relative independence comes about under the least auspicious of circumstances i.e. in the wake of the Iraqi debacle.

At any rate, don’t read too deeply into my utterances. Even when I’m sort of serious, I strive to imbue them with a trollish “edge” that is not necessarily amenable to nuance or accuracy.

I write mostly for my own amusement, and to practice my English. Otherwise I merely aspire to be a barely tolerable gadfly.

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engels 03.12.07 at 4:41 pm

Frasier—both Jane Leeves and Millicent Martin (who plays her mother) are as British as I am.

Yes, but that’s what makes it so appalling.

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abb1 03.12.07 at 5:18 pm

Well, I don’t know if it’s by design or by accident, but the region is unstable now, that’s the fact.
This means that most of the players need US support to survive.
Which means that they are falling deeper and deeper into semi-colonial protectorate status.
Which means that they will now have to get thru this stage again, the stage of acquiring some sort of common identity – pan-Arabic, Islamic, whatever works – to shake it off, to nationalize the resources, to kick the westerners out. This can’t be done by democratic means, too easy to subvert.
So, by design or by accident, this seems like a serious setback for the region; might take decades to recover.
Unless something dramatic happens, of course, some kind of collapse of this ‘new world order’.

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c.l. ball 03.12.07 at 6:22 pm

Asking “Was Suez worse than Iraq” is sort of like asking “Was Ishtar worse than Aeon Flux“? Worse for whom? Over what period?

I think it is a stretch to attribute primarily the 31 Oct. reversal of the 30 Oct. Presidium decision to negotiate over the withdrawal of Soviet troops from Hungary (it only pledged to withdraw troops from Budapest) to Anglo-French intervention in Suez. While Suez was in Khrushchev’s mind on 31 Oct. so was Nagy’s public speech that day, in which he said talks were underway to renounce Hungarian participation in the WTO (that’s Warsaw Treaty Organization, not World Trade). The Soviet talks in the 30 Oct. declaration were premised on the WTO being a forum for the discussions.

See: Declaration;
Presidium Working Notes

45

ejh 03.12.07 at 7:02 pm

This is very good

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harry b 03.12.07 at 9:05 pm

So, as both engels and dearieme imply upthread I’ve been a little unfair to Eden in comparing him with Bush. His whole career includes his conduct during WWII, which must weigh heavily. Bush and Blair have no achievement comparable, and it is inconceivable to me that either have the capabilities that Eden’s role demanded.

engels knows I’m not a consequentialist. What consequences count if you’re not a consequentialist? Consequences that were foreseeable (whether foreseen or not) with some non-trivial degree of probability. Eden and his cabinet were aware of the dangers in Hungary. They should also have been aware that Suez (whether successful or not) might have effects there. What effects were unknowable (and of course, I was being provocative, we still don’t have a full account of the effects, for the reasons people give). But attention to those possible effects was morally obligatory, and once they happened the only way to excuse oneself from responsibility is to show some strong moral imperative for what one did. Which in Eden’s case is impossible.

Bush and Blair? So far everything that has happened was predictable with a high degree of probability. Success, had it happened, would have been a very good outcome. It was also extremely improbable, and they should have known that, and they should also have known that the many different kinds of failure that were more probable were all very bad indeed. So I’m not trying to excuse them at all!

One small thing. Eden resigned shortly after the Suez debacle, mainly because of ill-health, but also because, although he never seems to have acknowldeged the seriousness of his own failure, he understood that it made his position untenable. Yet here we sit, in a political environment (in both the US and the UK) in which not only does such a failure not make it’s architect’s position untenable, but both can be re-elected even after it is clear that disaster has occurred and that they are culpable.

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abb1 03.12.07 at 9:58 pm

Eden, schmeden. Too much emphasis on the role of the individual in history, if you ask me. Dialectical materialism, man, dialectical materialism; back to the basics. Yeah, and the guy who calls himself ‘engels’ should be saying this, not I.

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Glorious Godfrey 03.12.07 at 10:41 pm

Well, I don’t know if it’s by design or by accident, but the region is unstable now, that’s the fact.

Yep.

This means that most of the players need US support to survive.

Really?

Iran is hardly beholden to the US, and its influence has grown thanks to the war.

Ankara has never been farther from Washington.

Saudi Arabia is watching the developments in Southern Iraq with suspicion, yes, but that hasn´t thrown them into America´s arms. On the contrary, the Saudi “private” patronage of part of the Sunni insurgency is no secret. And do you remember all those op-eds, in the run-up to the war, by Tommy Friedman, the jolly folks at the Corner, etc. where they droned on about “circumventing” the OPEC? Rupert Murdoch´s twenty-bucks-a-barrel swagger? The war party wanted to consign the Saudis to irrelevance, and it looks like they´ve shot themselves in the foot.

How does Wolfowitz´s “bellum se ipsum alet” moment sound in retrospect, now that the costs of the adventure have long exceeded the most pessimistic pre-war estimates, and Iraq is struggling to attain the –dismal– oil production levels from before the invasion?

This war has ended the era of undisputed American preeminence in the Middle East that started with the fall of the Soviet block and the 1990-1991 war. This relative degree of independence does come at a price, of course: a disintegrating state, right in the region´s heart.

Johnny K. Galbraith once said that:

“Ignorance, stupidity, in great affairs of state is not something that is commonly cited. A certain political and historical correctness requires us to assign some measure of purpose, of rationality, even where, all too obviously, it does not exist. Nonetheless one cannot look with detachment on the Great War (and also its aftermath) without thought as to the mental insularity and defectiveness of those involved and responsible.”

He had a point.

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Hidari 03.12.07 at 11:06 pm

‘Eden resigned shortly after the Suez debacle, mainly because of ill-health, but also because, although he never seems to have acknowldeged the seriousness of his own failure, he understood that it made his position untenable’.

This is a very important point, I feel. Allegedly, Eisenhower began his post-Suez phone conversation with Eden with the words: ‘I assume you have lost your mind?’

Nowadays, it would be Bush phoning up Blair and saying: ‘I have lost my mind. Fancy losing yours and joining me?’ And Blair saying ‘Sounds great!’.

The fact that Iraq is already one of the greatest disasters of modern times and neither Blair nor Bush seem to have even noticed (let alone apologised) is a sad comment on the moral (and sanity) of our current political class.

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Kevin Brewer 03.13.07 at 12:05 am

The latter point-the quote from JK Galbraith-was also made admirably by Corelli Barnett in his book “The Collapse of British Power”, which details the gross and almost unimaginable incompetence, neglect and failure of leadership in the UK in the interwar years. Eden was one of the prime suspects, as was every British PM of the period. The problem for the British was their ‘innate sense of decency’, their belief in the League of Nations, and willingness to believe the best in people-Hitler included.They ended WW1 with the biggest airforce, the largest navy, and an industrial revival forced on them by the war. They then proceeded to scrap a lot of the navy-at the US’s behest- they neglected airpower until late ( a fear of aerial bombing made the British leadership put its head in the sand (their fat arses probably made for bigger target for German bombs), they appeased their way out of every foreign affairs problem they could, including their Treaty with the Japanese -also at the behest of the USA-which made Japan their enemy, they treated their ally the French-who had the biggest army in Europe-like ball boys at a counntry tennis carnival thereby demoralising them, they neglected their economic base (too much Dr Arnold and Rugby school-too much Latin and Greek and not enough technical education, or education for that matter, and research and development),and they simply failed to perceive they real threat a resurgent Germany and Nazism was-forcing the French out of the Rhineland. They could have crushed Germany early in the 30s like the French wanted to. At the beginning of WW2 the problem for Britain was her Empire-it cost a lot to protect and provided very little in return. At the start of WW2 50 million British had 12 capital ships, 7 aircraft carriers, 50 cruisers (down from 114 at the end of WW1), 94 destroyers, the 20 million of the ‘white’ Empire (Canada, ANZ, and South Africa) could manage 11 cruisers and 20 destroyers. the Dominios had 5 divisions against 34 for UK. Singapore should never have been defended-it cost 90,000 men, men who should not have been wasted on such a futile battle. When they had spent their piggy bank on buying up munitions and the means to make them, they borrowed on the house. The USA generously sold them everything they needed at full value and demanded it be paid off-quite recently the last payment was made-and would have been quite happy to go on doing that as they had no interest in another European war, after having ‘saved’ Europe during the last one, a myth they still perpetuate although American troops contributed little by way of victories on the western front. The point of this being that the Empire was run by fools, and lost by them, long before the same fools got the UK into Suez. These fools were educated at Christian private schools, as the sons and grandsons of the hard men who built the British Empire. Suez was the insight everyone had that the old Imperial Britain was lost and that it was time was to modernise, de-imperialise, and get back to little Britain, which is the bit that really mattered.

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engels 03.13.07 at 2:35 am

Hmmm, I appreciate this is just a blog post but I do think the issue of moral responsibility is more complicated than that; and the claim that it’s just about foreseeable consequences seems pretty controversial to me.

I do think that Bush and Blair may clearly be held responsible for the killing in Iraq but I remain highly sceptical that Eden may be held responsible, in the same way, for all the wrongs committed in the course of the Soviet re-invasion of Hungary and subsequent occupation and years of Communist rule.

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roger 03.13.07 at 4:05 am

Kevin, I have to disagree with this part: “they neglected their economic base (too much Dr Arnold and Rugby school-too much Latin and Greek and not enough technical education, or education for that matter, and research and development).” Like Germany and France, the U.K. used unorthodox economics in the great slump, creating a trading block with the Commonwealth, and emerged from the slump years before the Americans did. This was noticed. Keynes did what he could to protect what the British had accomplished at Bretton Woods, but the major goal of the Americans was to lower any barrier to free trade, i.e. the American competitive advantage at that time, and the Brits had to give in.

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belle le triste 03.13.07 at 9:34 am

also it’s a bit unfair to thomas arnold, who introduced the teaching of mathematics and modern languages at rugby

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ejh 03.13.07 at 10:02 am

The fact that Iraq is already one of the greatest disasters of modern times and neither Blair nor Bush seem to have even noticed (let alone apologised) is a sad comment on the moral (and sanity) of our current political class.

I think it says a lot about their arrogance. I suppose this derives from having won the Cold War internationally and having triumphed over organised labour domestically: in London as in the US (and elsewhere) you can see a metropolitan class that is not just doing extremely well for itself, but is convinced that Freedom And The Englihtenment is intimately connected with people like them being in power and being able to get what they want. Everybody else is a dinosaur or a barbarian or a loser: they, however, are good and right and talented and on the side of history. Such people do not admit error.

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harry b 03.13.07 at 10:55 am

engels — there are other things than foreseeable consequences, sure (and I implied one of them by saying that there could be excuses grounded in the moral quality of the action). But you don’t really think that the consequences I’m invoking against Eden were foreseeable in the relevant sense, right?

My point was not just about Blair, Bush, and the political class, but also voters. Had Eden remained leader his party would have been blown out of the water.

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abb1 03.13.07 at 11:57 am

Glory, I don’t know; I don’t think current Iraqi oil production matters much, as long as a lot of oil is sitting under that sand and “we” own it.
Saudi Arabia? My impression is that Saudi princes are sweating bullets and cooperating with Israel against Iran, has this ever happened before?
Turkey? The US is seriously sponsoring Kurds in Northern Iraq and Turkey might easily find itself in a position similar to Egypt’s in the Israel-Egypt situation: either get used to being constantly attacked by a vicious American bulldog or become an American client.
I don’t know.

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Katherine 03.13.07 at 2:41 pm

I hate to break to the, um, older generation of Brits populating this discussion, but as a 30 year old, educated (no honestly) British woman, the Suez Crisis is not embedded in my consciousness at all. I know the bare bones, and that is more than most people of my age. It did not feature in our history lessons, nor did it feature in general social discourse.

The generations who are now growing/grown up don’t have things like the Suez Crisis, or (much as the baby boomers will find it difficult to understand) Vietnam or even the civil rights movements in their living memory.

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ejh 03.13.07 at 5:08 pm

Katherine, I wonder whether, in a way, the Suez Crisis might have brought that about: by making it clear (as has been said above) that a certain era was at an end and therefore obliging British people to live in a different world in which their influences were very different.

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Dan Simon 03.13.07 at 7:55 pm

All this talk about the Iraq war being “one of the greatest disasters of modern times” reminds me of the addendum Budd Schulberg wrote in 1989 to his classic, “What Makes Sammy Run?” in which he ranted at length about the earth-shattering, historic corruption represented by the Iran-Contra scandal. Needless to say, it’s rather jarring to open a novel written during the 1940s about the 1930s, only to find the author harping on a 1980s political controversy that had already faded into obscurity by the late 1990s. I understand that historical perspective sometimes evaporates in the heat of the moment, but it’s worth reminding oneself that the significance of current events can rarely be judged except in retrospect.

In fact, the Suez crisis is a great example. Although it was no doubt shocking at the time, we can see in hindsight that its effect on the Middle East was minimal. Nasser’s entire pan-Arab project was all the rage for about a decade, then collapsed utterly in the aftermath of the Six-Day War. By the mid-70’s–when the oil crisis finally gave the Arab world a bit of global clout–Nasser’s successor had already evicted his Soviet advisors and thrown in his lot with the US, and was about to make peace with Israel. Meanwhile, Ba’athism had devolved from a pan-Arab cause to a mere platform for personality-cult autocrats in Syria and Iraq. In other words, the Nasserite project was pretty much doomed regardless, and it’s hard to see what long-term difference the Suez crisis could have made, regardless of its real or hypothetical outcome.

As for its effect on Britain–well, there’s already consensus here that it was far more symbolic than real. British colonialism was already pretty much a dead letter by 1956, and while Suez may have driven the point home to the doubters in vivid fashion, in practice it likely neither sped nor slowed the Empire’s demise. Likewise, those who see the Iraq war today as a momentous world turning point may ultimately discover that there’s less historical heft to it than meets the eye.

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glorious godfrey 03.13.07 at 11:08 pm

Abb1:

I don’t think current Iraqi oil production matters much, as long as a lot of oil is sitting under that sand and “we” own it.

Oil tends to be useful only once you have extracted it. The hydrocarbon law that´s making the rounds in Iraq is favourable to Coalition interests, obviously, but given the general security situation, the thriving oil smuggling industry that has developed in Southern Iraq and the fact that Kirkuk is being and will be fought over, it could become so much waste paper. I also have the strong suspicion that America´s nominal Shiite „allies“ like SCIRI and Da´wa assume that America´s staying power is significantly less than Iran´s, that happens to be from the neighbourhood and all that. I wouldn´t necessarily bet the farm on the continued Anglospheric „ownership“ –to use your own terms– of the oil. The vagaries of politics in a country torn by war could remove the Coalition cronies from the picture, just as easily as the Coalition Provisional Authority declared Saddam-era contracts and promises null and void.

Saudi Arabia? My impression is that Saudi princes are sweating bullets and cooperating with Israel against Iran, has this ever happened before?

There´s never been much love lost between Saudi Arabia and the Iranian regime, and the history of Israeli-Saudi relations is not one of single-minded enmity, anyway. The tentative Israeli-Saudi détente is rather an indication of the failure of the neocon attempt to undermine the Saudis.

BTW, on those rare occasions when the interests of the Israeli and the Saudi lobbies coincide fully– like when Saddam invaded Kuwait– important things, things of import, tend to occur in Washington. It would not speak highly of the dog´s might, if he were to be wagged by the tails in the future.

Turkey? The US is seriously sponsoring Kurds in Northern Iraq and Turkey might easily find itself in a position similar to Egypt’s in the Israel-Egypt situation: either get used to being constantly attacked by a vicious American bulldog or become an American client.

Ah, but Turkey is stronger than Egypt, the Turks regard the prospect of an independent Kurdish state in Iraq as a direct threat to their territorial integrity (whereas after 1967 the Sinai was only a bargaining chip for the Israelis) and –perhaps more importantly– tough rhetoric towards America or such measures like the denial of Turkish territory for the deployment of US troops, in the 1-03-2003 vote, do not entail much of an electoral penalty in Turkey.

Dan:

All this talk about the Iraq war being “one of the greatest disasters of modern times” reminds me of the addendum Budd Schulberg wrote in 1989 to his classic, “What Makes Sammy Run?” in which he ranted at length about the earth-shattering, historic corruption represented by the Iran-Contra scandal. Needless to say, it’s rather jarring to open a novel written during the 1940s about the 1930s, only to find the author harping on a 1980s political controversy that had already faded into obscurity by the late 1990s. I understand that historical perspective sometimes evaporates in the heat of the moment, but it’s worth reminding oneself that the significance of current events can rarely be judged except in retrospect.

What a long-winded way to formulate a banality: „only time will tell“. A banality that ignores that there appear to be many people whose ability to evaluate the significance of the war has been seriously impaired by the fact that they have died as a direct consequence thereof, of course.

At any rate, wars –those one loses first and foremost– tend to be more significant than mere „political controversies“, irrespective of the similar reception that both may or may not get among blasé Beltway courtiers and others of their ilk. Oh, and make no mistake, the Iran-Contra scandal foreshadowed much of the crap which this Administration has been pulling off (which is not surprising, given the people involved). Its aftermath in particular reinforced the culture of impunity that Nixon´s pardon established (you know, Ford was such a healer).

Your nonchalance might be predicated on the myth that Vietnam had no serious repercussions. This is utter bullshit, eaten up by the ladleful by the American right. It is also a convenient appendix to the Dolchstosslegende summed up with particular poignancy by Ronnie´s „purveyors of weakness“ line.

However, the legacy of Vietnam is still felt: it is pretty much out of the question for the US to try to further its interests in the Far East by dint of conventional war. And it is in the Far East where most of the XXI century will happen, as it were.

It is not entirely unconceivable that in the aftermath of the Iraq war similar levels of wilful self-delusion are seen.

Note to whomever this may be of interest: since people like Dan are essentially impervious to arguments of a moral nature, it is more satisfying and perhaps even more effective to remind those people that no, they don´t get to bestride the orb like colossi.

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Costello 03.14.07 at 9:49 am

Suez twisted the knife in the British Empire’s heart but didn’t insert it in the first place. The World Wars did that, especially World War I, which the Brits really didn’t need to enter (or could have played a peripheral role in), but instead got millions of their best and brightest slaughtered or wounded in, while liquidating centuries’ worth of treasure. Whatever the claims of enforcing the treaty on Belgian sovereignty, it’s pretty clear that ultimately, imperial expansion was a big motivating factor, which subsequently led to the carving up of Ottoman Territories– and this, too, blew up in the Brits’ face, as Iraq in particular rebelled against the British in the 1920’s. The way the Japanese smashed the Brits at Singapore in 1942 (on the heels of the Blitz and the Narvik disaster) obviously humiliated the British in the eyes of “inferior brown people” who had theretofore respected British military power, but the question arises of why the Brits managed to get themselves slaughtered so badly in Singapore in the first place, by an undermanned and undergunned Japanese force at that. It had a lot to do with the British tottering well before Singapore due to WWI– Gallipoli, the Somme, Passchendaele, and even the paltry “gains” of WWI (the Ottoman Territories) erupting in bloody rebellion against the British, a disaster all around. Interestingly, the Iraqi rebellion occurred around the same time as the Irish War of Independence, in which the Irish guerrillas not only defeated the British, but actually achieved more than casualty parity against the British forces, something that had occurred in only about a half-dozen or so other colonial wars in which the Brits were involved (e.g., Afghanistan in the mid-1800’s, South America with the River Plate invasion before that).

What this all goes to show furthermore, speaking of Afghanistan and the River Plate, is that the British Empire was very fragile even at its peak in the 1800’s. It didn’t last nearly as long as e.g. the Roman, Spanish, Portuguese or medieval Arab empires, didn’t involve as much territory or people as is often overstated (only half of India was ever under British control, and most of the land within the “empire” was uninhabited wasteland in the Canadian north and Aussie interior), and the British also had a nasty habit of losing embarrassing colonial wars against “darkie” adversaries for whom they had contempt. An entire British army got wiped out in Afghanistan in the 1840’s and did so again around 1880 at Maiwand and in the guerrilla conflict that followed. Two British invasions of the River Plate in South America after 1805 (Napoleon was a useful distraction) were defeated by a bunch of Spanish/Creole/African ne-er-do-wells led by some French mercenary named Liniers– around the same time that the original Muhammad Ali smashed the British in Egypt. Even in Haiti of all places, the British got whacked by L’Ouverture, though L’Ouverture had a powerful ally in yellow fever, I guess. Fast-forward to after WWII– but before Suez in 1956– and the British were getting spanked around in Indonesia in the Anglo-Indonesian War of 1945 (basically trying to force Anglo-Dutch control over the pesky Indonesians to prevent both their empires from crumbling, failed miserably esp after Surabaya), while getting kicked out of Israel/Palestine by Irgun bombings in 1948.

What it all adds up to, frankly, is that the British were a pretty lousy imperial military power– what “empire” they had largely depended on buying off local chieftains and incorporating them into the British capitalist/mercantilist system, which indeed worked for a while so long as the British banking houses could bribe the nawabs into keeping quiet. But after WWI with the British nearly bankrupted, the Exchequer started to run out of bribe money, with much less incentive therefore for local luminaries in the colonies to play along. After WWII those angry natives were not only angry but well-armed, as the Brits learned to their detriment.

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Glorious Godfrey 03.14.07 at 10:56 am

The thread is going to go down the rabbit hole in a jiff, and in all likelihood nobody gives a fuck anyway, but I’d like to add that:

-For better or for worse, my views on Israel are pretty generic and mainstream. I don’t necessarily buy fully into Israel’s characterization as a “bulldog”. Whichever the case might be, the comparison between current-day Turkey and Egypt in the sixties and seventies is somewhat whimsical.

-The repercussions of the Vietnam war I’m talking about are obviously actual geopolitical ones, not the alleged effect of the war on the American psyche. As many have not failed to point out, the notion that it is abnormal to entertain some form of self-doubt in the aftermath of a war –the notion in other words of a “Vietnam syndrome” under which the US would have allowed itself to become a “pitiful, helpless giant”, a head case unable to find “peace and security through strength”– is bullshit. This is something that many Europeans tend to forget when they talk about the “traumatic” effects of decolonization, Suez etc.

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Glorious Godfrey 03.14.07 at 11:00 am

“Bullshit” as in “vintage wingnut bullshit”, that is.

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Glorious Godfrey 03.14.07 at 2:10 pm

What it all adds up to, frankly, is that the British were a pretty lousy imperial military power.

That probably had little to do with an intrinsic ineptitude of the British as empire builders, however. It is a cliché, but the British empire was a thalassocracy. The cliché goes on to say that thalassocracies tend to be fragile.

It could have hardly been otherwise. Apart from the obvious imperatives of geography, during its formative stages the British empire suffered from a lack of manpower. The British soldier remained a relatively rare commodity till well into the nineteenth century. His thorough drilling and practiced markmanship led to the myth of the “best soldier in the world” and all that.

Incidentally, if one bears in mind that they don’t much care about progress and are instead focused on teh power, the “demography is destiny” crowd make some amount of sense.

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Glorious Godfrey 03.14.07 at 4:40 pm

marksmanship

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Glorious Godfrey 03.14.07 at 4:40 pm

I’ll shut up now.

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Glorious Godfrey 03.14.07 at 4:42 pm

No, really.

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abb1 03.15.07 at 10:29 am

Here, Glory:

Turkish officials repeatedly have accused the United States of insufficient efforts to prevent attacks into Turkey from Iraq by the PKK, which has waged a guerrilla war for autonomy since 1984 at a cost of 37,000 lives. Turkey also has threatened military incursions into Iraq against the rebels, which the United States fears would alienate Iraqi Kurds, the most pro-American ethnic group in the region.

Ralston said the United States has not yet met Turkish demands for the capture of PKK operatives and destruction of a rebel base in a mountainous area of Iraq near the Turkish and Iranian border. He said, however, that the United States would consider options against the group available to a U.S. military stretched by many challenges in Iraq.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070315/ap_on_re_mi_ea/us_turkey_1

As you can see, the US client attacks Turkey and Turkey now needs US help to stop it. This can (and probably will) go on forever. Thus the US now has this leverage against Turkey, leverage they didn’t have in 2002.

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