All the nice boys love a cowboy

The “Emerging Democratic Majority” viewpoint is based on the notion that the parties never change their positions and that “whiteness” is an unchanging characteristic. Polls that analyze “white” voting patterns likely include Jews and Italians, groups that would never have been included in a 1920 poll measuring the same thing. I can imagine there was the same assumption of an endless democratic majority early in the century. Just look at all those “colored” working poor immigrants! It just didn’t last more than a few election cycles.

Democrats and Republicans will always be about 50/50 (give or take), because the parties will have to change whenever they become at risk, or else the electorate will.

Maybe the Dems will give up their anti-gun position, or maybe second generation Mexicans will start being considered White, increasing the white numbers.

Either way, I’m dubious of any claims of impending one party rule.

Democrats and Republicans will always be about 50/50 (give or take), because the parties will have to change whenever they become at risk, or else the electorate will.

I concur, the statistics along racial and ethnic lines are simplistic and misleading and can often skew the real reason why individuals vote the way they do (e.g. economic and cultural). Right now it appears to be primarily Republicans who are trying to make inroads on more likely Democratic voters with proposals such as personal retirement accounts and “faith-based” initiatives to empower counter-constituency groups with the targeted demographic groups. Democrats on the other hand seem to pretty much be playing defense and making little effort at making inroads on their own – Howard Dean trying to court Southerners by first insulting them and then later trying to lecture them about what issues they should/not vote on is more of a “Michael Dukakis in the tank” moment than a serious or sincere attempt – with the exception of some of the State Attorneys General who went after high profile corporate fraud cases to court the burgeoning investor class.

every time I spend more than 10 seconds on Den Beste’s website I get a headache from the self-righteousness; could somebody with more of a stomach for it tell me what he does for a living, or rahter where he finds the time to write that profusely?

Teixeira certainly believes that 2000 was a voter turnout triumph for the Republicans; I suspect that Brett may be right on the absolute numbers, but not relative to trend.

could somebody with more of a stomach for it tell me what he does for a living, or rahter where he finds the time to write that profusely?

He’s retired. From his biography page, he’s 50 years old this year and apparently got quite wealthy in the Tech field.

Yeah and I’ve been pondering ‘Dyke Eye for the Straight Woman’ and trying to make it work. But it would involve throwing out all those beauty products rather than buying them as Queer Eye does, so commercial tv wouldn’t be all that keen. It would be damn funny though.

Oh, of course – I should have known.

We white boys love the tough guys
We like it when they’re fake
like Ronald, Arnold, Dubya
the sizzle, not the steak.

Factoid: Al Gore did not so far from this in the 200 election (he actually got 36% of the white male vote) and the race was about as even as it could possibly be.

2000 did not have an incumbent running, and it dang sure didn’t have the stark contrast in national security policies that it has now. Yuck it up about cowboys and metrosexuals all you wish, but ignore it at your own peril (presuming you are a Democrat, of course.)

Steven den Beste tracks back to this Crooked Timber article, and says:

“Crooked Timber thinks that white men don’t actually matter. (White women, on the other hand, do.)”

Says it all really. The sad thing is that SDB probably believes it.

Come on, bring back SSDB — you know you want to…

Brett: I checked up on this. Republican counties always have a lower turnout than Democratic ones (mainly because Democratic counties aer disproportionately in urban areas). But in the particular case of the 2000 election, this structural advantage in the popular vote was substantially reduced by a massive Republican GOTV effort.

“Jason, this do ya?”

No, because then you have to cross-reference that with Bush’s margin of victory in those counties, which I can’t find.

Then you have to speculate as to how those don’t vote would have voted if they did. I suspect this goes different directions in different areas.

After black artists went 10-for-10 in the Billboard singles charts’ Top 10 this year, I’d say we already have a “Black Eye for the White Guy” show — one as surface-obsessed and shallow as “Queer Eye for the Straight Guy.”

I think it’s called MTV.

A “36 point margin [ie a 68:32 split -dd] over Howard Dean” isn’t an “insurmountable obstacle”; it’s a two point swing away from the neutral point of the 2000 election and quite the sort of thing that could get lost in differential turnout rates.

Dream on. All other things being equal, Democrats going from 36% of the white male vote to 32% (white males = 40% of electorate) takes a 49% – 49% election to a 51% – 47% election, which is to say, a major ass whipping.

Al Gore was the candidate of the incumbent party during a time of peace and propserity. He had a huge Federal machinery working for him, which is now working for the Republicans, so all other things won’t be equal, they’ll be tilted in the Republicans favor.

This is going to be huge, and I’m going to gloat about it this year, a lot.

Frankly I think a huge error is being made by everyone in trying to read too much into the polls 10 months before the election.

Bush did not do well in the polls against Gore in December 1999, Clinton did not do well in the polls against Bush in December 1991, Reagan didn’t do well in the polls against Carter in December 1979 and so on.

Most people in this country have a pretty good idea of who George W Bush is, on the other hand the vast majority of people still have no idea who Howard Dean, Wesley Clark, or any of the other Democrats other than Dean are.

If Bush vs. Dean is still polling the same in October or September 2004 then I’ll conceed the naysayers have a point until then I say it’s still way too early to tell. Ten months is a lifetime in politics. Ten months ago Dean was all but a footnote in the race for the Democratic nomination, today it is his to lose.

Oh and for what it’s worth in early primary and caucus states Dean does best of all groups of likely primary voters with white males.

Look, I don’t think anyone should be holding out any hopes that the Democrats will win, because they won’t. I’m just making the point that it’s not all about the Carly Simon syndrome of white males. Please, nobody get your hopes up about the Democrats; they’re fucked.

zizka,

Speaking as a conservative/libertarian blend (like Best Choice grape juice, 100% Natural, but more accurately labled) George Bush either is a moderate, or he plays one in the White House. The middle of the electorate has tolerated Reagan’s fiscal policy (like Bush’s), Nixon’s environmental policy (like Bush’s), the Drug War’s civil liberties policies (like Bush’s) and both Nixon’s and Reagan’s military excesses (like Bush’s) well enough to give landslides to Nixon and Reagan.

I’m going to go out on a limb and say that both Ford and Gore were defeated because the middle of the electorate really hates Presidential scandals. Go ahead and feel free to saw the limb off.

Clinton was moderate too, not the rabid liberal some on my side of the fence see. Dean is only slightly less moderate than Clinton.

Bush does have plenty of conservative supporters, though, and Dean has plenty of liberal supporters, but neither is all that far from the center.

I changed from liberal/libertarian (voted for Gore) to conservative/libertarian (will vote for Bush), myself. The change in perspective was illuminating.

Yours,
Wince

You know, if the GOP lost 5% of the white vote between 1988 and 2000, while moving significantly to the right, something tells me they’re not going to get those votes back by moving even farther to the right…..