When is Assassination in Order?

by Harry on July 6, 2004

On Parliamentary Questions the other day they played a clip of David Owen, recorded in 2003, admitting without embarrassment that when he was Foreign Secretary he seriously considered ordering the assassination of Idi Amin. There was no explanation of why the idea was rejected (it was a clip in a game show), but my immediate, and non-reflective, reaction was that it was the first good thing I had heard about Owen (whom I couldn’t stand when he was a real politician, even before reading Crewe and King’s fantastic biography of the SDP in which he emerges as a deeply unlikeable and destructive character). Without giving it a lot more thought, which I can’t do right now, I can make a very rough judgement that certain objectionable leaders are legitimate candidates for assassination (Hitler, Amin, both Duvaliers, Stalin) whereas others are not (Khomeni, Castro, Rawlings, Botha). I could tell a story about each, and probably be dissuaded on each of them (except Hitler). But I couldn’t give anything approaching necessary and sufficient conditions for candidacy. What makes a leader a legitimate target of an assassination attempt?

Clarification: as jdw says below we are talking about a government authorising the assassination of a foreign leader, rather than a citizen assassinating his/her own country’s leader, the assumption being that governments require more justification.

{ 63 comments }

1

Andy 07.06.04 at 9:25 pm

Your examples suggest that perpetrating ghastly crimes on one’s own people is a justification for assassination. Cubans have suffered from being under Castro, but not on the order that Russians (& Ukrainians!) suffered under Stalin. I don’t know enough about the Duvaliers to decide whether they qualify.

What’s interesting is that your dictators, except Hitler, don’t seem to have been a conspicuous threat to those outside their own borders; at least, that’s not what we most revile them for in retrospect.

Possibly, massive repression of one’s own people indicates a “mad dog” irrationality that justifies treating a dictator as not entitled to the ordinary immunity from assassination that’s extended by civilized nations.

That said, hindsight is a wonderful thing. When would you say that someone would’ve been justified in assassinating Hitler, based on their knowledge at the time (no foresight of Auschwitz)? 1933? 1940? 1942? Answer that, and maybe you’ll have a clearer sense of your inchoate criteria.

2

jdw 07.06.04 at 9:26 pm

Correct me if I’m wrong, but I think it’s implicit that we’re talking about a government assassinating a foreign leader (I think the distinction’s important — I would agree that the US assassinating Castro would be illegitimate, but I don’t think it would be wrong for a Cuban to do the deed).

That said, it’s legitimate to for a government assassinate a foreign leader if it could be reasonably be assumed that to do so would avert a war. I don’t think Stalin passes that test, though, which is a shame.

3

David 07.06.04 at 9:34 pm

If we want to answer this question by evaluating the expected consequences of assassinating leader X in terms of the well-being of the people living under leader X’s regime: In some cases, assassinating leader X will do neither good nor bad. If leader X’s regime is especially entrenched, with like-minded successors waiting in line for leader X to die, then killing leader X would only have the effect of replacing him with an equivalent. I think many periods of Soviet history fit this description (although Stalin’s period does not, probably). In other cases, assassinating leader X will do bad. If, for instance, leader X’s regime is not very stable, such that his death would likely result in the government’s collapse; and if the result of collapse would be prolonged anarchy, feudalism, etc.; and if this state of affairs is likely to be worse for people’s well-being than whatever is the present regime — then killing leader X would be bad. I think Hussein’s Iraq may have fit this description. In other cases, killing leader X would be good. This would be the case if (a) leader X’s regime were relatively stable, and his likely successors were nicer guys than he is, or (b) leader X’s regime were unstable, but leader X were such a horrible guy that anarchy would be better than having leader X in charge. I think Castro fits description (a). I don’t know if I can think of any cases where (b) fits.

Dunno if I’ve said controversial or obvious things here….

4

sidereal 07.06.04 at 9:48 pm

Seems to me the justification for assassination is a subset of the justification for war. Honestly, a bunker busting munition is just a really large, comparatively imprecise bullet, which does far less collateral damage in its sniper-originated form.

So is the only difference that assassination occurs before a declaration of war? Can we declare ‘assassination’ as some relative of war that means we’re just going to send in assassins until the head of state is dead, but won’t actually invade militarily? Seems more humane to me.

5

Abbas 07.06.04 at 9:49 pm

Chris,

“Legitimate”? Wrong word. The “law” (international or otherwise) doesn’t cover it. “Appropriate” might be a better word. Or how about “of overwhelming benefit to mankind”? By this measure I would surely propose Khomeini’s candidacy; without his putsch in my country, Bin Laden-style Islamism would never be the malevolent force it is today.

6

Maria C. 07.06.04 at 9:49 pm

Thou shalt not kill …. remember the fifth commandment? What makes a government exempt? Nothing, in my view.

It might well be argued that the world would be a better place without certain politicians – Bush and Blair himself probably fit the bill for many, Putin for Chechens, etc. – but it is still wrong, because the end does not justify the means. By stooping to murder, you become a killer yourself, never mind the motives. Nobody can be trusted with that sort of power.

The intended victim may well deserve death, but most probably other innocent people – bodyguards, bystanders – will also die, and by giving the order you are destroying your own soul and integrity. Why is that so hard to see for so many clever people?

7

Peter 07.06.04 at 10:08 pm

Good words, Maria. I’m sure the inmates of Auschwitz and the Siberian gulags would have been very reassured to know that no one’s “soul or integrity” were harmed.

8

Ophelia Benson 07.06.04 at 10:36 pm

“Why is that so hard to see for so many clever people?”

1) Because they don’t know what the word ‘soul’ refers to, for one thing.

2) Because they don’t see why an assassination of, say, Hitler in, say, late 1941, would destroy the assasin’s integrity, for another thing.

9

phil 07.06.04 at 10:56 pm

Assassinating a foreign leader is terrorism, no matter how you spin it. If a government does it, it is war.

It may also be more effective to assassinate the leader’s successors, rather than the leader him- or her-self. The assassination of Admiral Carrero Blanco (Franco’s successor) by ETA (if it was really ETA and really ETA’s own idea) was a masterstroke. Slaying Uday and Qusay would have been more likely to lead to a compliant Iraq than slaying Saddam.

The Hitler argument is nonsense. Hitler could have been easily stopped at the time of the occupation of the Rhineland, and the shock would have brought down the Nazi government. The Rhineland could then have been negotiated back to the Germans in a decorous fashion. This didn’t happen because of international collusion between the European industrialist classes who feared socialism and looked to Hitler to stop it. Thus they wouldn’t have instigated assassination either.

Peter’s cheap shots at Maria neglect the reason we have international borders in the first place, which are a consequence of the treaty of Westphalia and the Thirty Years’ War. Then the slaughter, relatively, was greater than even that of six million Jews and twenty-five million Soviets in WWII.

10

bob mcmanus 07.06.04 at 11:00 pm

Kant is hardcore

When is torture permissable?
When is pre-emptive war permissable?
When is assassination permissable?

Never.

You may not presume other’s values are identical to your own, and that being given, a universal moral rule here is not possible. Except a negative one.

If you just want to go into utilitarianism, I suspect war waged by assassination is dissociative of society. Renaissance Italy?

11

Hedley Lamarr 07.06.04 at 11:02 pm

One case I never figured out was
Ferdy Marcos. He robbed his people
of billions, back when that was
a lot of money. Yet we (Reagan)
helped him out of the country and
let him keep all the loot, right?

12

Jason 07.06.04 at 11:09 pm

I’m with Sidereal, assassination is not worse than war. The thing that makes it feel bad is the deceit involved.

I think a “state of assassination” probably existed throughout most of the cold war with both sides trying to kill key members of the other. The secret services of both sides were almost certainly aware of this as well. I think that state was preferrable to a war.

The question is really whether the public is comfortable with an open admission of the state, or whether an open admission of the state can coexist with attempts at reconciliation.

13

Robert Dicks 07.06.04 at 11:13 pm

Assinations, porivate or governmental can serve a purpose.
I would approve the assination of bin Laden in a heartbeat, capture him, and see how many people will die trying to force his release. The real problem there is that the “big dog” had pups.

14

Conrad barwa 07.06.04 at 11:19 pm

whereas others are not (Khomeni, Castro, Rawlings, Botha)

I am intrigued to see Rawlings included here; what is your story wrt him?

15

Jonathan 07.06.04 at 11:35 pm

Necessary and sufficient conditions, here we go:

Government X is justified in attempting to assassinate political figure Y if and only if making the attempt will, of all the available alternative actions, result in the best consequences.

Oh, you wanted necessary and sufficient conditions that could actually be applied in decision-making? That’s a good deal harder…

16

grackel 07.06.04 at 11:56 pm

This strikes me as a colossally bad idea – ill conceived, poorly thought out, the lot. Once it becomes known that country A is complicit in or sanctions assassination, what is to stop countries B, C, D… I am continually amazed that Israel, for instance, has not lost any number of politicians in retaliation for its actions. To mirror Maria C., in a sort of real politic kind of way, once this nice low path is embarked upon, it can only spiral ever downward. Cheers, if that’s the kind of world you want to live in.

17

harry 07.07.04 at 12:11 am

bq. I am intrigued to see Rawlings included here; what is your story wrt him?

Yes, an eccentric, and not very good choice. I have a good excuse for putting him in my first go at this — I wanted an example of an authoritarian figure who is clearly not too bad, but lacks a democratic mandate. But that was when I was trying to get clear examples of people who everyone will agree shouldn’t be assassinated. I gave up on that, but never took him out of my parentheses. Sorry.

18

WeSaferThemHealthier 07.07.04 at 12:40 am

Maria C,
Something I’ve wondered about, if the end can’t justify the means, what can?

“By stooping to murder, you become a killer yourself, never mind the motives. Nobody can be trusted with that sort of power.”

So, umm, should we disband the military?

19

Abbas 07.07.04 at 12:43 am

Grackel,

Quite apart from you having put the retaliatory cart before the horse, the reason Israeli government officials rarely get assassinated is the efficiency of their secret service, not any lack of desire on the part of Hamas, Islamic Jihad or Hezbollah. On the other hand, reports appear to indicate that the recent Israeli campaign against leaders of Hamas, Islamic Jihad and the Al Aksa Martyrs’ Brigade has been very effective. Do I approve of their (the Israelis’) actions? Probably not. But I can understand that faced with schoolbuses and pizzerias blowing up in Tel Aviv they may feel they have little option. Their targets are not ordinary politicians but admitted terrorists. So this is probably just war by another name.

On the other hand the assassinations of Khomeini and Saddam Hussein in 1980 would have saved half a million of my compatriots’ lives and a similar number of Iraqis — not to mention all the Kurds, Shiites, Marsh Arabs and Kuwaitis (and recalcitrant Sunnis) who died later under Saddam and the thousands who died across the world from the fallout of the Khomeini revolution.

20

Adam Kotsko 07.07.04 at 12:45 am

Maria,

When Dietrich Bonhoeffer, an avowed pacifist, was confronted with the reality of Hitler, he opted to participate in an assassination plot against him — a choice that ultimately cost him his life and that he seems to have regarded as having compromised his soul’s integrity. In such a situation, it may well be necessary to cast concerns for integrity aside — moral judgments that seem self-evident when we’re sitting in front of our computer keyboards may become orders of magnitude more complex in a situation like Hitler’s Germany.

Also, in his prison writings, Bonhoeffer denounces Kantian ethics as prideful. So there’s that.

21

bob mcmanus 07.07.04 at 1:41 am

“Let us speak now of the death of kings.”

“Richard II” has always been one of my favorite Shakespeare plays, as much for certain alien, counter-intuitive questions it raises for me. The “King” is not just the guy who pulls the levers, instantly and easily replaceable. He is in some sense the identity, the unity of the nation. And I know they were not written in historical order, but I have always felt that the history plays tell a coherent narrative of what happens to a nation when even a bad king is improperly removed.

Kennedy was arguably not a great President nor a great man, and Johnson may have been superior to him on the merits. Yet the country may have fragmented on Kennedy’s death. Certainly it felt like it.

Saddam certainly was not a good man or good ruler, yet he may have been the only thing keeping the factions in Iraq from fratricide.

The old caution against assassination, that it may be preferable to actually go to war than kill a nation’s ruler, may have grounds in factors other than royal privilege and protection.

Summary: These things are not predictable.

22

WeSaferThemHealthier 07.07.04 at 1:58 am

“I have always felt that the history plays tell a coherent narrative of what happens to a nation when even a bad king is improperly removed.”

What would count as proper? Shelling cities and invading with tank divisions would be proper?
Why would using a few missile to take out the cars leaders were travelling in chip away more at the unity of a nation than what happens when tank divisions are used?

“Saddam certainly was not a good man or good ruler, yet he may have been the only thing keeping the factions in Iraq from fratricide.”
He wasn’t assassinated, yet, those factions aren’t getting along so well.

23

Anthony 07.07.04 at 2:31 am

david – I think Robert Mugabe has likely qualified for your criteria (b) – even if his assassination results in the dissolution of Zimbabwe into anarchy, that may be better than what is currently happening. (Which is not easily distinguishable from anarchy.) Idi Amin may also have qualified. Kim Il-Sung may qualify, depending on the likely consequences.

As has been said above, assassination is tantamount to war. Thus I would say that assassination is only justifiable where a conventional war would be also. Once the decision has been made that our (or the potential assassin’s employers’) interests justify war, then it becomes a question of weighing consequences – would assassinating Saddam (or Uday and Qusay as suggested above) have had better consequences than the invasion which was launched?

Assassinating Hitler once the war had started would be legitimate – the questions to be answered at the time would be whether assassinating Hitler would have had less serious consequences than not assassinating him. The US assassinated Admiral Yamamoto, (correctly) believing that Japanese retaliation for that act would be no worse than Japanese pursuit of their war aims, and that assassinating Yamamoto would significantly impair Japanese effectiveness. Assassinating Hitler between mid-1940 and mid-1944 might have left Germany militarily more capable, though perhaps more amenable to a negotiated peace. Assassinating Hitler after mid-1944 may have benefitted the Red Army far more than the western allies, and thus may have been unwise, but it would not have been inherently immoral.

Israel’s assassination of Palestinian militant leaders is similarly legitimate. The Palestinian militant groups are waging war against Israel; Israel has the right to wage war in return. Assassinating terrorist leaders is ignificantly better than the alternative, waging war on the Palestinian people. I suspect they’ve only allowed Yassir Arafat to live this long because they calculate that he somehow limits the harm caused by Palestinian terrorist groups by his continued existence – either because Arafat actively plays a moderating role, or because his incompetence limits the damage the Palestinians do.

24

Tom Doyle 07.07.04 at 2:33 am

Back in the USSR, even after Stalin died, everything wasn’t perfect. Cetain luxury items were occasionaly in short supply. Food for example. Muskovites (and no doubt others) sometimes had to wait in line for hours, days even, to purchhase small amounts of flour, vegetables, meat, etc.

One man had been waiting in a beef line forever it seemed to him, and word came back that all the beef was gone, but there was nothing to to but wait till more arrived, who knew when. He blew up and began cursing that no good g-d damn Ukrainian idiot Kruschev. “Hush, Vasily, don’t make trouble,” others told him.

“Trouble! I’ll show you trouble, he bellowed, pulling out a Luger atomatic and waving it over his head. “I took this off a dead Nazi general. He missed me and I strangled him with my own hands. I’m going straight to the kremlin and shoot Nikita Sergeivich dead.”

Off he went. “That’s the last we’ll see of Vasily, poor devil,” everyone agreed.

Six hours later Vasily returned, asking sheepishly if he could get his place back in line.

“Thank G-d, you came to you senses!
You didn’t go to the Kremlin to shoot Kruschev after all?” They all sighed with relief.

“I did go there, on Vladimir Ilyich’s grave I swear it! But I couldn’t shoot him.”

“Good, you had a change of heart, then?”

“Never! But the line for shooting Kruschev is ten times longer than the line for beef!”
————-

The above is from memory, and I don’t remember the source, but it credited the joke to Kruschev. I’m sure he told it better than I did.

25

Syd Webb 07.07.04 at 2:54 am

A dumb question for Harry: How are both Duvaliers worse than, say, LBJ or Nixon?

26

Doctor Memory 07.07.04 at 3:29 am

Andy suggests: What’s interesting is that your dictators, except Hitler, don’t seem to have been a conspicuous threat to those outside their own borders.

Ahem. Only because Lenin and Stalin decided where to draw the borders.

27

Anthony 07.07.04 at 4:20 am

The Allies actually scuttled plans to assassinate Hitler during World War II, believing that he was a worse military leader than any of his potential replacements.

28

Richard Bellamy 07.07.04 at 4:24 am

Thinking point on legal assassination:

How can it be morally permissible to attempt to assassinate Papa Doc, even with 100% foresight, when you know that the result will be the reign of Baby Doc, who is also assassination-worthy?

I.e., does the morality on the assassination rest solely on the qualities of the dictator, or does it also depend on his likely successor?

29

Lance Boyle 07.07.04 at 5:56 am

The perspectives inherent in statements like “if it could reasonably be assumed that to do so would avert a war”
and
“Or how about ‘of overwhelming benefit to mankind’?”
are so curtailed they aren’t even myopic. It’s a moral posture that uses a flashlight beam to view the world. There’s no one here that’s capable of determining the “benefit to mankind” of anything.
What that really means is the immediately observable, short-term, obvious benefit to currently living mankind. The future can take its chances or go hang, as far as most people are concerned.

The schoolyard glee with which many of the male voices here contemplate the killing of another human being is repugnant.
Talking about killing, even someone like Idi Amin Dada, is much different than being in a room with him, with a weapon in your hand. Most of the voices here don’t mean they themselves would do the assassinating, of course, they would “have it done”.
Either it’s an either/or choice, or it isn’t. Either it’s a very serious thing to kill another human being or it isn’t.
The right or wrongness of it doesn’t affect its seriousness.

How many people would you justify killing in order to rid the world of a heinous monster? Innocent lives gone to a higher purpose. Regrettable but hey. Like cleaning up your country sort of isn’t it? But then isn’t that what the bad guys were doing, at least some of them? Or thought they were?
Are we making moral distinctions based on intent, or on results? Or both?
In the longer run you have no way of knowing who will live or die as the result of your actions. Real people in the world of a hundred or a thousand years from now will live or die, and possible lives wink on and off, depending on what you do here and now. It’s just that you’ll never see them, and so never “intend” their deaths.
Thou shalt not kill, indeed. Unless they happen to be occupying land you want to live on.
Morality for dummies, where the intentional taking of life is condemned publicly and often, and then consistently rationalized and qualified until the condemnation means nothing more than “Thou shalt not kill me or mine” and the conscious intentional neglect of another’s desperate need, even if it means death, is lauded as sensible and appropriately cautious, or even good – for the economy, or the race.
Social darwinism with a gloss of decency that’s no thicker than paint.

30

Tom Doyle 07.07.04 at 7:12 am

“The schoolyard glee with which many of the male voices here contemplate the killing of another human being is repugnant.”

This male is against killing anyone, anytime, for any reason. This is the RULE. There are limited exceptions, circumstances where deadly force may be justified. To prevent the imminet death of or serious bodily harm to oneself or another, if there is no reasonable alternative. That’s about it. There are The thing is the exceptions are narrow.

I don’t think I can whack whoever because I think, on balance, the world will be a better place, and/or a better place for ME, without her/him. Rather I can, but it would be murder, and and anyway I won’t.

When did this become controversial again?

31

John Kozak 07.07.04 at 8:41 am

“The virtuous – how they long to be hangmen!”

32

mc 07.07.04 at 10:46 am

It’s never ‘legitimate’, at most it can be argued to be of some use, like abbas said. But you’d have to bring up real instances of that, not hypotheses. Especially not hypotheses about Hitler, because he’s dead already, and because there was never a real plan from any other government to assassinate him, or even bother to stop him before he did what he did.

It’s useless to retroactively argue that a leader should have been killed when he hasn’t. It also would be hypocrite to stop at Hitler or Stalin, or any other dictator in recent times, you’d have to argue your way into pre-emptively assassinating all the monsters and villains in history, all the way back.

Sticking to today, and practical considerations (ie. aside from the inescapable fact assassinations are illegitimate and illegal), if you take Castro’s case, it’s just too late, it’d be no use, and you’d be messing things up even more by now. Plus, who is it up to? I wouldn’t blame a Cuban who’s been emprisoned and tortured and then tried to murder him. But I can’t picture any government taking that decision and justifying it in public.

Taking instances of Israel’s public ‘targeted assassinations’ of confirmed terrorist leaders, I just never understood what practical advantage it gave them that overweighed the obvious disadvantages of creating more martyrs, fueling more hatred, and building up a reputation for infringement of international law.

I guess the concept might have a place in a context of declared war rather than as covert operation, but I’m not sure about the legal implications there.

Also, in recent history, assassinations have most often been used for strategic interests rather than ethically grounded elimination of tyrants or terrorists. So let’s not kid ourselves.

33

derrida derider 07.07.04 at 11:22 am

Perhaps we ought to adopt John Quiggin’s line about torture – if the likely good is so great that it outweighs the evident evil, then the torturer or assassin ought to go ahead – and then turn themselves in. So Owen maybe should have authorised Amin’s assassination, then told the world that it is open season on himself.

And of course that’s the problem – what’s good for the goose is good for the gander. Just as with illegal ‘pre-emptive’ wars, illegal assassinations authorise others to respond in kind.

34

mc 07.07.04 at 11:24 am

” On the other hand, reports appear to indicate that the recent Israeli campaign against leaders of Hamas, Islamic Jihad and the Al Aksa Martyrs’ Brigade has been very effective. ”

Where? How? I don’t approve or disapprove either, I just wonder where all this tactical success is.

Anyway, I do agree it is war by another name, so even if the assassinations are still technically illegal they’re not exactly the same as the plots of the CIA kind in the 70’s in Latin America, for instance.

35

jdw 07.07.04 at 3:54 pm

lance–

Yeah, that’s a pretty heroically stupid misreading, and a pretty schizoid string of ad hominems. Way to go.

Schoolyard glee? I actually masturbate.

36

Anthony 07.07.04 at 4:54 pm

mc – the tactical success is the dog that didn’t bark in the night. There hasn’t been a suicide murder within Israel proper in a while, and the overall rate has been dropping for quite some time.

37

Silent E 07.07.04 at 7:17 pm

Here’s the problem:

The case for assassination generally posits that in a situation where, historically, there was great cruelty, repression, bloodshed, and war, assassination would have resulted in a fast (or faster) resolution to the problem with fewer casualties and suffering. So, assuming that we can identify such situations in the future, we should consider assassinations in order to prevent war.

But assassination in itself is never enough, unless you’re an anarchist. There has to be a plan for what to do next: who fills the power vacuum? What local faction are we trying to help with a killing? How do we arrange to either (a) keep our hands clean and our involvement secret, or (b) prevent an outraged foreign nation from seeing our actions as an intolerable intervention into their affairs? These questions are very hard to answer in a way such that assassination still looks like a good idea.

Moreover, assassination is destabilizing because it is assymetric and inexpensive. The US (and the West in general) should never want to legitimize assassinations (outside of a conventional tanks-and-planes war) because, like all terrorism, it plays to our weaknesses, not our strengths. It allows minor disputes to get violent VERY cheaply, thus allowing more disputes to result in violence. It favors the anti-social or anarchist insurgency, as opposed to the organized military, the market, and the civil society. It seduces with its faux simplicity, and lets even timid souls and small nations think that they can deal as equals with the great powers, independent of consequence or cost. It is the $10 nuclear bomb, the 50-cent Kalashnikov of diplomacy: if used, there can only be chaos.

38

mc 07.07.04 at 7:29 pm

anthony – depends on how relative your “in a while” is, and what you define as terrorism because even if there’s been no major suicide attack in a few months, well it’s not like nothing else happened. And experience shows these kind of “pauses” are no guarantee of anything. People in Israel don’t seem to be under any illusions, for a start.

Plus, there’s no reason to assume the lull in major suicide attacks is due to the targeted assassinations of leaders. Probably more to political factors and calculations by terrorists, _and_ Israeli intelligence and military operations at wider, and lower, level. Including other questionable operations.

It would take far more radical and wide-ranging changes to the whole situation to reduce the risks permanently. Targeted killings are part of a political game but I don’t quite see how they’re they most effective part.

39

iyad the fist 07.07.04 at 7:53 pm

What makes a leader a legitimate target of an assassination attempt?

as the marginal revolution would say, “markets in everything!”

http://jya.com/ap.htm

cheers :D

40

Abbas 07.07.04 at 8:56 pm

MC,

There have been a spate of reports in a wide variety of publications — including the Arab press, which I read — concluding that the targetting of terrorist leaders has been quite successful. There may be plenty of would-be martyrs and suicide bombers, but they need a fairly sophisticated support system — the import and manufacture of bombs and bomb belts and the money to pay for them, someone to smuggle the belt into Israel, someone to store it, someone to recruit the bomber, someone to scout targets, someone to select the next target, someone to tape the bomber in advance, someone to give the go-ahead, someone to notify the media and claim “credit” after the deed is done, someone to pay the bomber’s family, etc. — and without leadership and bureaucracy all this falls apart.

Whether the new security wall is legal or illegal (the Israeli supreme court has ruled that it is legal in principle but unduly burdensome on some Arab communities; they have ordered the fence’s route redrawn in several areas), it too has reduced the incidence of infiltrations into Israel. As well, there has been a backlash against the terrorists in some Palestinian towns, from inhabitants who feel that their presence attracts Israeli soldiers and tanks. How much of this is due to the targetting of the leaders of Hamas, Islamic Jihad and the Al Aksa Martyrs and how much to internal (Palestinian) ” Intifada fatigue” under Israeli pressure, is hard to gauge. I think both sides are “fatigued”, which may augur well for any new peace initiatives.

41

mc 07.07.04 at 9:22 pm

abbas: yes, but the assassinations of the top leaders is a separate thing from the ordinary work of dealing with the whole terrorist organisation. That’s what’s been having the most effect, all along, lull or no lull. I guess it’s a whole lot of factors at play, but a lull doesn’t make a peace. If only.

In any case, I think Israeli’s targeted assassinations of terrorist bosses are probably the least objectionable of their illegal activities. It is a context of open conflict and terrorist leaders are not the same thing as leaders of a country, where it gets far more complicated even at practical level, let alone in terms of principles, to argue for the benefits of assassination.

Also, like you pointed out yourself, useful and legitimate are not quite the same thing – especially if you compare the relative, arbitrary nature of the word “useful” to the absolute meaning of “legitimate”.

42

Abbas 07.07.04 at 10:55 pm

MC,

As I indicated above, I don’t think Israel’s targetting of terrorist leaders is “assassination”. It’s just war by another name. On the other hand, it is a war that Israel now seems to be winning. Some Arab commentators have even begun to raise the possibility that faced with the apparent failure of the “violent option” (i.e. terrorism), Palestinian public opinion may not only be turning against suicide bombing but also against the Intifada itself. This would be a good time for the Israelis to make a conciliatory gesture, it would seem. Trouble is, Sharon is now being threatened by the extreme right over his planned evacuation from Gaza and there are no credible moderates on the Palestinian side (the Israelis will no longer deal with Arafat himself and Arafat refuses to allow anyone else any real power in the PA) to respond to any Israeli feeler.

As for the issue of assassination as Chris raised it, I’ve already stated my regret that Khomeini and Saddam Hussein were not successfully targetted back in 1980. Their elimination would have saved the million Iranian and Iraqi lives lost in the subsequent war (the war was largely Saddam’s personal project but Khomeini had little reluctance to accomodate it with Iranian cannon fodder, uh, martyrs), not to mention all the other victims of these tyrants and their deputies over the years.

43

Anonymous 07.08.04 at 12:52 am

Just out of curiosity, would successful assassinations of Israeli leaders using helicopter gunships bring peace that much closer? If so, perhaps the US could offer to lease its Apache helicopters and other military equipment to Palestinian terror groups, with the caveat that they’d have to give up their suicide bombing attacks. What’s not to like from both viewpoints? Suicide bombing attacks stop and the Israeli death toll triples to match the Palestinian toll. Sounds like a win/win situation, doesn’t it? Perhaps we could also wreck the Israeli economy and increase malnutrition.

Yeah, maybe both sides would then really tire of the war and get serious about treating each other as human beings.

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Fergal 07.08.04 at 1:13 am

Suicide bombing attacks stop and the Israeli death toll triples to match the Palestinian toll. Sounds like a win/win situation, doesn’t it? Perhaps we could also wreck the Israeli economy and increase malnutrition.

Yes, that might work… Hamas would stop at the green line and Israel would promise to remove from its constitution any mention of driving the Palestinians into the sea. The Israeli intifada would be over. Oh, wait, did I get that wrong…?

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mc 07.08.04 at 8:11 am

Abbas: then I misunderstood, I took that “war by another name” to refer to the whole context, not the specific assassination actions themselves. They are called like that because that’s what they are, even the Israeli government defines them like that.

As for your view that Israel may be winning (what?) and terrorism losing support, I really don’t know what to say, I don’t see that supported by reality. A temporary lid on terrorist attacks is not the same as going towards a solution, and yes, indeed, the Israeli government is screwing this up too.

Of course eliminating Saddam and Khomeini would have prevented later massacres. So would have eliminating any other tyrant in history. Why stop at the most recent? Why not assassinate the Popes of the Inquisition era before they got to it? Nero? Maybe even Columbus, while we’re at it? You just can’t argue that assassination is ok because it would have stopped the Holocaust, the gulags, the genocide of Native Americans or the burning of “heretics”. These what-if scenarios are useless, and they certainly can’t justify a practice that is illegal and illegitimate and doesn’t have a place in modern democracies, outside of declared war, at least. Assassinations can’t be used a substitute for political action. There were a million ways Khomeini and Saddam could have been stopped, _but it was clearly in no one’s interests to do that_. That’s what you need to consider, not hypotheses on what didn’t happen. Khomeini was useful in anti-Soviet strategies, ditto for Saddam who was also useful to keep Iran in check. That’s why no one wanted to take them out, politically or militarily or assassination-wise.

Concern for victims of tyrants is a projection, it was never a factor for those strategies.

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mc 07.08.04 at 8:16 am

oh, and the same goes for Hitler. He was an enemy of the Soviets too. The US and Britain took their time in coming up with a coherent anti-nazi/fascist position, and only when it became necessary because of the expansionism. Again, concern for Holocaust victims was not a factor if not at the end.

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dave heasman 07.08.04 at 11:19 am

Just to clarify mc’s statement : –
“There were a million ways Khomeini and Saddam could have been stopped, but it was clearly in no one’s interests to do that.”

By “no one” here you mean “World leaders with realpolitik interests in the Middle East”. “Poor bastards who got slaughtered in their hundreds of thousands” aren’t included. Right?

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mc 07.08.04 at 1:39 pm

Dave, they were evidently not included in the strategies about those two dictators, that’s all I meant. I was merely observing that no one stopped them or tried to stop them _before_ the tortures and slaughters, and it is well-known that Saddam was at best tolerated and at worst supported (depending on accounts). With Khomeini it was more complicated I guess, but in the end he too was tolerated. Now, all the hindsight “benefits of assassination” arguments start from a concern for the victims those leaders were going to make. It’s undeniable that it would have been better to take out (politically, militarily, whatever, not necessarily by assassination) those leaders before they committed crimes against humanity. But, clearly, that concern was not a factor for those who had the power to do something yet not only abstained from assassination but also from all other kinds of attempts at preventing mass deportations and killings and the like.

In other words, one can only conclude that no political power gave a toss for the poor bastards who got slaughtered. So it’s kind of naive to base the arguments for assassination on that. It is a concern for us, but not for those who would – in the hypothetical what-if arguments – have enforced those assassination plans. They would have considered them only if it fit their strategy, not out of human compassion.

Is it clearer now? I thought it was already.

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Abbas 07.08.04 at 5:12 pm

MC,

Yes, “war by another name” applies to the whole context. But, just as there are many ways of waging war, depending on the context, this one has its “rules”, and they seem to have changed with the targetting of Hamas and Islamic Jihad leaders. Like you, I would have thought that this would simply have energized the troops and resulted in increased terrorism, but it seems we have underestimated how much of (this variety of) terrorism is a top-down phenomenon.

You say: A temporary lid on terrorist attacks is not the same as going towards a solution. I agree. But this is a war and Israel seems to be winning it. The received wisdom is that terrorism has causes and the only permanent solution is to eliminate those causes. I was never all that convinced by that argument, at least insofar as these were supposed to be “root causes”. I always suspected that the causes in some instances of terrorism were simply cold political calculations taken by higher-ups, cynical manipulations of popular opinion and genuine grievances. I saw this many times when I was still in Iran. The regime there (not the powerless elected officials) is now highly unpopular and they’ve begun to seize on the nuclear dispute with the West and transform it into an issue of Iranian nationalism, thereby (they hope) regaining some of their standing with the disaffected young. This is classic political manoeuvring and I am surprised when otherwise intelligent people discount such cynical manipulation in the area of terrorism.

As for Khomeini and Saddam Hussein (circa 1980), of course my opinion is more idle hindsight than anything else. But I remember having heated debates in Tehran in 1979 with friends and colleagues in which I and a few others warned of the dire consequences of allowing Khomeini to return. They hated the Shah and thought that the only way Iran would progress towards democracy would be by removing him. How naive they were!

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Lance Boyle 07.10.04 at 5:50 am

jdw-
I dunno man, the letters that followed your pithy snark seem further proof of what I said. Adolescents looking at a video screen, talking about the deaths of real human beings like they were points on a scoreboard, with a “poor bastards” thrown in here and there to make it sound all adult and real man-ish.
There’s no morality in most of the posts, just strategy.
It’s like two separate species confronting each other, there’s no moral valence, just power and force. Two separate moralities that have no overlap, no conjunction. Different animals sharing the same symbols, for a while.
You won’t believe this but I have to go look up “ad hominem” – I’m not academically trained; but then I’m not academically circumcised either.
Now, having looked it up, I have an even clearer sense of the academic nature of your dismissive posture.
There are rules, and one of the rules is – logic always trumps emotion.
Stuff it.
Logic is for insects. Emotion means more in the long run than logic ever will. For human beings. Shakespeare’s logic is bent to serve his heart, and in that serving it becomes a higher form of what it starts as.
I’m fine with ad hominem, I’m fine with immorality really; as long as it serves my goals I’ll dispense with all of it – logic, morality, sense, sanity. As long as it works, let’s go.
True emotion, by which I mean an accurate emotional response to the truth of life, which is unquantifiable, which can’t be measured or dissected, matters more than logic. Logic alone is a mineralization, a drone motive, and its worship will mean the death of humanity.
Stuff it.
Without passion human beings are worthless meat, purposeless inferior machines. But you knew that already.

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mc 07.10.04 at 3:28 pm

Abbas: I wasn’t talking of “root causes”, but root _solutions_.

I’m not referring to any received wisdom, and I’m not discounting any cynical manipulation of genuine grievances. But the manipulation and cynicism regarding terrorism doesn’t work just in one direction.

As for causes, I guess there’s a variety of them and they can’t be reduced to one.

But ultimately, what causes terrorism is less relevant than how to deal with it – and ok, causes and solutions obviously intersect because to deal with something you’ve got to know why it exists, but, you know what I mean, you’ve got to focus on the present and on political strategies, not just military ones, and not just rhetorics either. In the case of Israeli assassinations, I don’t think basing a whole strategy solely on the right to self-defense is very wise. With self-defense, you can justify anything from the wall to the assassinations and incursions and so on, but what next? You’ve got to go deeper than merely putting a lid on things, that’s all I’m saying. Whatever political views you have about the “causes”, you just have to do something more than military defense, or you’ll be stuck with the problem forever.

In the end, what matters most is not the terrorist mentality but the general conditions and attitudes of a society and how they develop. Terrorism can be kept in check, most people even with the deepest grievances won’t go join a terrorist group, but they are far more relevant to how a nation is built and organised, to political life, in general.

What you mention about the Shah and Khomeini… maybe it was naive to think removing the Shah would solve everything, but maybe it’s also not exactly a wonderful choice there, between one and the other. I don’t know much about that history, but I take it there were valid reason to dislike the Shah too, right? Maybe with the benefit of hindsight you can argue it would have been relatively better to keep him than have Khomeini back, but it’s rather pointless to argue that by now. Just like with the argument on hypothetically retroactive assassinations.

You’ve got to take into account that a lot of the _actual_ assassination plans that were carried out or supported, more or less covertly, in recent history, whether by so-called western or non-western powers, were done for games of interests and power, not for humanitarian concerns. That’s why I think arguing for the legitimacy of assassinations based on prevention of massacres (that happened already) is a flawed position, because that’s not what those tactics have been used for generally. It’s a rhetorical trick that exploits the indisputable advantage of preventing dictators from slaughtering people, but it’s purely hypothetical, and naive.

If the governments we would have liked to intervene to stop massacres were concerned with humanitarian reasons, they wouldn’t have maintained, and in many cases, be still maintaining alliances with various thugs and dictators all around the world. Who wouldn’t have liked the Taleban leaders to be eliminated before they could do what they did to Afghanistan? But then, who can explain why they got billions of dollars in funding up to the same year as 9/11 happened? I can’t. But in light of that, and similar things, I can’t delude myself about the benefits of an hypothetical pre-emption of tyranny that never materialised, because it’s blatantly clear that tyrannies have been supported and tolerated when and where there was an interest to, and removed or helped to fall only when that interest failed or was superseded by a different one. At no time the concern for people living under those tyrannies ever entered those strategies – except when it was to convince the public about a regime change. So maybe we shouldn’t project humanitarian preoccupations on policies that are not primarily concerned with them, that’s all.

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Abbas 07.10.04 at 8:33 pm

MC,

Of course the cynical manipulation cuts both ways. That was exactly my point. I remember how much of a shock it was to me coming from Iran to find progressives like myself, in the west, naively seeming to believe (or, at least, to argue, in a condescending kind of racism) that only the western powers and the USSR would be sophisticated enough to manipulate the masses, and that if there were an Islamic (read “Islamist”) Revolution in Iran which was then exported across the Middle East, that this must reflect a deep-seated popular desire and that the liberal democracies would simply have to accomodate this new, reactionary reality.

My point is that far from being inevitable, the Khomeini “revolution” could easily have been nipped in the bud had farsighted statesmen (in the west or east; I blame the French in particular) prevented the miserable ayatollah from being given Iran on a silver platter in 1979. Had they done so, the current political (and social) situation in the Middle East (and, by extension, the world) would be very different.

This is what so interests me in the subject of assassination. The people who argue that the course of history is inexorable (determinists? Marxists?), are very wrong. The removal of Hitler (via assassination or some more conventional method like being jailed for sedition) at any time in the ’20s or ’30s would have had a profound (pick a stronger word of your choice) effect on the rest of the 20th century. This is not just a parlour game. Can anyone deny that deliberate or accidental deaths have had an enormous influence on the course of events in many countries over the past century? Of course there is a large dose of the hypothetical in discussing assassination (as there always is in discussing history), but I cannot understand how some people will eagerly defend, say, euthanasia, on (hands-on) moral grounds, yet blithely write off the millions of victims of history’s tyrants on what they claim are “moral” (hands-off-or-it-will-corrupt-your-soul) grounds. In short, no, I’m not proposing that we should get busy drawing up assassination hit lists (and no, I haven’t given any thought at all to how it would work, ok?), but to dismiss the importance of individual human agency in the course of current events (blame the neocons for the Iraq war mess but refuse to blame Al Sadr or Al Zarqawi for the insurgency?) is a very curious, Alice-in-Wonderland view of politics and history.

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Peter W. 07.11.04 at 1:58 pm

Abbas:

Very interesting comment. Our natural tendency is to “explain” history and the huge influence of individuals players on its course is not always psychologically satisfactory. We want to believe that there are more powerful currents to history than those generated by influential individuals with powerful axes to grind. The thought that the 20th century would have been very, even totally, different without Hitler, is somehow disappointing to some historians. Anti-semitism and German nationalism (among other factors) were crucial to his ability to implement his nefarious plans, but in Hitler’s absence they might have simmered and never given the chance to boil over into WWII and the Holocaust. It’s hard now to imagine what the world would be like had those two seminal events not occurred, but to think that they were somehow inevitable or independent of individual human agency is to believe in a very mad sort of determinism.

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mc 07.12.04 at 8:08 am

Abbas – to clarify, my point about cynical manipulation going both ways was not the same as yours. I understand your point of view but I don’t have the same experience and I was still in primary school when Khomeini came back to Iran, so I didn’t exactly have a political opinion on that.

I never heard that many people who supported him or were that naive about the “revolution”, though. Mostly because the “progressives” where I grew up were communists so while they had no fondness for the US-installed Shah, the last thing they would cheer for was a religious nut in power.

If that was different in the US, I have no idea. But I don’t see how it was the opinion of naive and deluded “progressives” that helped Khomeini get where he was. I think he was serving someone’s interests too, just like the Shah. Maybe not just French interests. Why didn’t those statesmen you refer to try and prevent that? I don’t know, but it doesn’t seem to me the approach was very different from that towards Saddam’s Iraq. In both cases, strategies were played and business was made. By all sorts of parties.

Finally, to go back to the assassination argument, Marxism or concepts of inexorability is not what I was talking about. It just seems blindingly obvious to me that there is absolutely no point in arguing hypothetically about “what if Hitler had been removed”, when he wasn’t, and when it took a long time (for the very nations who ended up defeating the nazis) to make a move.

I for one am not defending euthanasia (? what’s it got to do with this?) nor “writing off” the millions of victims, for gosh’s sake. It’s just that we can’t rewrite history with what-ifs, and clearly those victims were a concern to no one of those great statesmen until they were moved to intervene by self-interest. So if you’re attributing that Alice-in-Wonderland view to me, you’re really misreading my point, which is just about facts, not moral principles, because they rarely enter into political strategies. Fact is, massacres are never stopped by those who have the power to stop them, until they become an obstacle in some geo-political strategy. Humanitarian concerns are NOT what drives politics, simple as that. So what I find naive, and also, charged with rhetorics, is this proposition of “but wouldn’t you have supported assassination of Hitler, don’t you see assassination can be morally grounded?”. the reply to that is not “I don’t care, it’s bad to kill, even when it’s Hitler”, I never said that. It’s implied and obvious that assassinating Hitler would have been A Very Good Thing. But it’s not the reply, it’s the question that’s wrong. Because neither you or I have any power to assassinate Hitler retroactively, so it’s just pointless to argue about it, and it becomes a very sly rhetorical trick to defend the concept of political assassination based on the Hitler argument. Is there any other present tyrant that would deserve elimination? sure, so let’s discuss that, and the advantage of assassination vs. all other kinds of possible interventions that are supposed to be available and legitimate before you resort to assassination plans. Also considering the latter – with the exception of Israel where they’re part of a war – have been generally a tool of political manipulation and strategies that had very little if nothing to do with humanitarian concerns about populations living under repression; and these concerns never entered into the calculation for strategies that involved support of dictators who killed and tortured thousands but who were useful for some political end to the very powers you’d like to project the “moral assasination” concern on. You can’t discuss on the what-ifs only and ignore history and what really drives large-scale political actions.

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mc 07.12.04 at 8:33 am

Peter: but the question raised by Harry is not a philosophical question of individual agency vs. determinism, it’s a practical question, where the role of individual agency is already implied. But the real point to me is not how much history would have changed without those individuals and how much individual influence they had, it’s why was it possible for those individuals to do what they did.

That’s what has most relevance to the present, because there are still massacres and dictators and the same patterns of political indifference (not in terms of public opinion, in terms of governments) until something else than humanitarian concerns enters the scene and tilts the balance towards intervention. If assassination is to be considered as a form of intervention, shouldn’t we be looking at what actually motivates intervention in the first place, instead of projecting a desire that it should be motivated only by humanitarian concerns, regardless of other interests? Which would be great, but it’s just *not real*.

Of course history would have been radically different without Hitler, but why and how was Hitler able to get where he was and did what he did? what conditions favoured him? what turned him from an ignorant and repulsive man to a tyrant cheered by the masses? that is rightly the question most historians have tackled because it simply is the most relevant, to that history and to the present and the future.

The what-if question on assassinations – “given the self-evident truth that it would have been better to remove those responsible for massacres before they committed them, does this somehow form a basis for legitimacy for assassination in general?” – cannot escape from that historical analysis, because analysis shows that though one man can hugely affect history, he never acts alone. That man is no more, that country is no longer the same, but in another place, another time, the conditions for a different version of the same story can always occur, because dictatorships thrive on the same mechanisms. Dictators are like puppets, they’re inter-changeable, there’s nothing special about them in the first place that can explain the entirety of their role, and even when they do have some charisma, it takes a receptacle to work its effects, and for them to be eliminated by other external powers, it takes more for these powers than concern for the oppressed. It’s just a fact, and it has little to do with theories.

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Abbas 07.12.04 at 11:15 pm

Sorry, MC, but some of the biggest supporters of bringing Khomeini back to Iran were those in the radical left. The Shah was identified with the West and that was enough to earn Khomeini their support. This sort of ideological purblindness caused the West to support Bin Laden against the Soviet regime in Afghanistan and is now sadly in evidence in the unholy alliance between the radical left and the Islamists in the antiwar movement in the UK and some places in Europe (see particularly Ken Livingstone’s embrace of the despicable Al Qaradawi in London a few days ago).

About cynical manipulation, my point is this: terrorism is, at once, far less of a mass phenomenon than people believe, and far more subject to implementation from above. The argument about “causes” (root or otherwise) is artificial. Virtually all studies of suicide bombing, for example, have shown that there is no causal link between deprivation and poverty — even outright oppression — and incidence of suicide bombing. Most studies have concluded that suicide bombers may be susceptible to being recruited by reasons of “humiliation” (real or indoctrinated; it amounts to the same thing) and religious or political fervour, but they have to be recruited. Not only recruited, but trained, supported, etc. Theirs is not a spontaneous reaction to “injustice”, real or perceived, but something that is taught. I.e. manipulated. And this analysis also holds true for much of Islamic terrorism (of the non-suicide bombing variety). And that is why a campaign like Israel’s (against the leaders and structure of the terrorist movement) in a restricted territory over which they have some control, can succeed. Western supporters of the Palestinians might not like these facts but they seem to me incontrovertable. Even moderate Palestinians on the ground, who have been afraid to speak out against terrorism given the climate in Gaza and the West Bank, are beginning to see the proposed Israeli pullout from Gaza as a promising first step, and are beginning to test their voices in opposition to the Intifada.

A few other (quick) points…

I am in favour of euthanasia (you misread what I wrote).

We can only argue about Hitler in hindsight. A current dictator whose assassination I would support? Kim Jong-Il.

I can’t answer for Peter but his analysis about the importance of individual human agency in history squares with mine. Sure, “things” were right for Hitler to come to power and implement his policies, but they would have been “right” had he never existed. That’s one of the reasons I supported the removal of Saddam. He was a brutal killer on whom “sanctions” would never have any effect. Trouble is, Bush and his gang are inept ideologues and they’ve screwed it up. I don’t know if an international, UN-sanctioned force would have been better, but it could hardly have been worse.

Finally, you say “dictators are interchangeable”. You are wrong. Very wrong. The Shah was a dictator (my cousin was jailed for opposing him), but, by the late ’70s he had become a relatively benign dictator (certainly by Middle Eastern standards) and Iran was moving perceptably towards a liberal democratic (and largely secular) regime, perhaps some form of constitutional monarchy. Contrast that with what Khomeini has wrought. Khomeini alone. Same conditions, different dictators. To argue that some other fanatical ayatollah would sprung up to do exactly what Khomeini did, is sheer nonsense. Conditions may influence dictators and may facilitate their bane but to argue against their assassination (on policy) is like refusing to treat the symptoms of cancer until we can come up with a permanent cure.

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Abbas 07.13.04 at 1:11 am

Three sentences missing after “…but they would have been “right” had he never existed.”:

“And the Holocaust wouldn’t have occurred, probably not even World War II. Hitler alone was the instigator of these two terrible events. Others implemented them but, in the end, he alone determined that they should happen.”

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mc 07.13.04 at 10:02 am

Abbas – Sorry, MC, but some of the biggest supporters of bringing Khomeini back to Iran were those in the radical left.

Just so it’s clear, I’m not arguing the merits or coherence of all the left-wings in the west in the past fifty years. But which radical left are you talking of, in the US? in all of Europe? or in Iran? perhaps that’s the souce of the misunderstanding here. I thought you were referring not to Iranian but to US and western left-wing opinion in general. I don’t remember it was that compact on Khomeini, it sure wasn’t in Europe.

And was it radical left opinion that led Khomeini to power? again, the left in Iran or the US & west in general?

The Shah was identified with the West and that was enough to earn Khomeini their support.

You say yourself the Shah’s was a dictatorship, and people were jailed and persecuted and repressed. It may have been turning towards a “benign” regime later, I won’t go into that, but, regardless of the comparison with Khomeini which is not exactly a case of great choices available, it does seem there were a few reasons for the Shah being disliked, other than his western support.

This sort of ideological purblindness caused the West to support Bin Laden against the Soviet regime in Afghanistan

I thought that was strategy, not ideology, and it was the US government and secret services and their allies. It wasn’t exactly a popular stance with most of the left, at least in Europe.

And if anything it shows the huge contradictions of those strategies vis a vis fundamentalism and dictatorships.

and is now sadly in evidence in the unholy alliance between the radical left and the Islamists in the antiwar movement in the UK and some places in Europe (see particularly Ken Livingstone’s embrace of the despicable Al Qaradawi in London a few days ago).

Abbas, I’m not seeing those radical left plus Islamist fractions in power anywhere.

What about the unholy alliance of US governments and the Saudi monarchy? or the continuing unholy alliance with the same Pakistani services and military regime that trained the mujahedeens? or in other places in Central Asia, where oddly the regimes supported do not include only Islamists but also communist dictatorships?

Isn’t that perhaps more relevant and influential than anything Ken Livingstone says. Also, the anti-war opinion in Europe was vast majorities or near-majorities of entire countries, surely you’re not equating those with the tiny far-left groups that overtly support Islamists, right? Cos I doubt that those 90% of Spaniards, for isntance, who were against intervention in Iraq would be eager to embrace fundamentalism and terrorism.

About cynical manipulation, my point is this: terrorism is, at once, far less of a mass phenomenon than people believe, and far more subject to implementation from above.

And on this, like I already said, I totally agree. It is also subject of implementation from below and from sideways, it appears.

Like you yourself mentioned above about Afghanistan, Islamic fundamentalism and terrorism has served western interests too. We’re not exactly seeing an upheaval of those strategies when there’s so little coherence in how different regimes are handled, and when, even in a post-soviet context, the very same financial interests in the Middle East that existed at the time of the Soviets haven’t changed.

The argument about “causes” (root or otherwise) is artificial.

Abbas, you brought up this “root causes” argument, I never did, and I already explained what I think of it. I was talking of political solutions, not “root causes”, and specifically limited to Israeli strategies which is what we were discussing. Even Sharon understands the concept of the need of a political solution, it seems, even at the cost of sacking his own ministers.

Theirs is not a spontaneous reaction to “injustice”, real or perceived, but something that is taught. I.e. manipulated.

Indeed, no argument on that from me. We already agree there.

Yet, any considerations on causes does not void the questions about solutions.

nd that is why a campaign like Israel’s (against the leaders and structure of the terrorist movement) in a restricted territory over which they have some control, can succeed. Western supporters of the Palestinians might not like these facts but they seem to me incontrovertable.

I can’t answer for your standard “Western supporters of the Palestinians” becuase I’m not exactly one, and that’s not the argument I was making.

I never said anything about Palestinian demands, we were discussing the merits of the Israeli assassination policy. Well, all I’ve been saying is, no assassination policy, security wall/fence, or military intervention alone is going to provide a long-term solution (or compromise), and that is something the Israeli government and the majority of Israelis understand perfectly already. Because there are plans for a political solution too. Or do you see disbanding settlements and pulling out a concession to that “root cause” argument you despise? Don’t you think that, regardless of what one thinks of the causes of the conflict, that move may be a smart one for Israel too, in the first place? Regardless of discussion on causes, regardless of how effective it may or may not be, regardless of what motivates Sharon to do this, isn’t it fundamentally solution-oriented?

I am in favour of euthanasia (you misread what I wrote).

I just didn’t and still don’t understand what it has to do with political assassinations, but I didn’t bring it up, so, nevermind.

We can only argue about Hitler in hindsight.

Exactly, which makes the what-if discussions pointless. Especially if they ignore that there were several ways of taking out Hitler, assassination included, but they were never carried out.

A current dictator whose assassination I would support? Kim Jong-Il.

If that was enough to destroy an entire regime and rebuild a country on a democratic basis… But, see, to me the most interesting question is: is there any power planning to do any of that? Is the concern for the victims of that regime taking over in policies about NK? I’m not seeing any of that. We can project a desire that that concern should be there all we like, but it doesn’t make it materialise.

That’s one of the reasons I supported the removal of Saddam.

Of course, as a goal in itself, it’s definitely unarguable. It’s _how to do it_, like you acknolwedge yourself, that is always the trickiest part.

And again, we can’t ignore that the moral or humanitarian concern there was not the main reason for intervention, otherwise, the same reason would have to motivate intervention elsewhere.

On the “interchangeable” dictators – I used the wrong word, what I meant is not so much interchangeable one with the other, but the fact that by themselves, as single individuals, no dictators could have done what they did, it takes a whole system to create a dictatorship and keep it in place. Internal conditions, and external conditions too.

To argue that some other fanatical ayatollah would sprung up to do exactly what Khomeini did, is sheer nonsense.

That is not what I meant.

I find it impossible to argue on what-ifs in the past, I’m merely following what happened for real.

To say that Khomeini, or any other dictator, didn’t do it all by himself is not the same as saying “if there had been no Khomeini someone else would have come up to do exactly the same”. We can’t know that anyway! So no point in arguing about it.

My point is merely that the emphasis on what made it possible for Khomeini or any other dictator to take power is more interesting than his personality or individual traits alone.

Conditions may influence dictators and may facilitate their bane but to argue against their assassination (on policy) is like refusing to treat the symptoms of cancer until we can come up with a permanent cure.

First, I already made it clear I am *not* arguing against the undeniable truth that it would have been better to eliminate Hitler and Khomeini and Kim Jong and Saddam and Nero and Vlad the Impaler _before_ they shed any blood.

My argument, sorry to be repetitive, is simply that you can’t argue for the _legitimacy_ of a _policy of assassination_ based on what-ifs about the past.

And when it’s about the present, you still have to get real and you can’t dismiss the fact that that humanitarian concern – that motivates your (and Harry’s) willingness to grant some legitimacy to assassination policies – is just _not there_ in geo-political strategies and policies anyway. Most of the time assassinations have been used to all sorts of other ends than preventing massacres or eliminating murderous dictators.

I’m not arguing on ideal principles, I’m more than willing to sign up to the elimination of all dictatorships on the planet by any means including assassination but *it’s just not real*, it’s not being done, or planned, or discussed, it’s pure theory and speculation.

Just like the speculation on what-if-Hitler-had-never-existed:

And the Holocaust wouldn’t have occurred, probably not even World War II. Hitler alone was the instigator of these two terrible events. Others implemented them but, in the end, he alone determined that they should happen

You cannot know that, all we know is the Holocaust *did* happen, that no one who had the knowledge of it occurring and the power to stop it tried to prevent or stop it, and that no one took out Hitler, and the Western powers that finally liberated the nazis did so only well after the Holocaust was under way, only when their own interests where threatened, _because that’s how these things work_. It’d be great if they didn’t work like that, and it’d be great if we could make it right just by arguing about how nice it would have been to assassinate Hilter and all his associates before they did what they did, or even anticipate the war so that more people could have been rescued from the camps, but it’s pure retrospective wishful thinking.

And wishful thining is of no use to discussing if assassination is legitimate in principle, because even today the mini-Hitlers of the world are still not being taken out and their victims not being rescued until some other element tilts the balance towards some intervention of some form or another.

In other words, before arguing in principle about the legitimacy of political assassination, we’ve got to see what motivates it and other forms of intervention against dictators in the real world as is, not in theory. Because even if we all agreed that assassination is the best, quickest, safest, most clever and effective and ethically grounded way of toppling regimes and saving people from massacres, those who we would like to take that course of action are not in the least following let alone enforcing the same concerns and reasoning. So what’s the point of arguing whether it is legitimate?

If the British government came up tomorrow with a plan to assassinate a top-ten of tyrants across the globe, then it would surely be necessary to discuss if _that_ policy is clever and ethically, practically and politically defensible or not, despite its being technically not legitimate in the sense of legal (which is a fact, but doesn’t mean it’s not justifiable in certain cases). But no what-if-Hitler will help in assessing that.

I do believe Harry’s question above is very interesting especially in terms of theoretical discussion on principles. But I also believe it’s not realistic at all.

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mc 07.13.04 at 10:07 am

… sorry for my sloppy writing, “liberated the nazis” should obviously be “liberated Europe FROM the nazis” and “disbanded settlements” should be “dismantled settlements”, ouch…

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mc 07.13.04 at 10:14 am

Also, leaving aside the absurdity of these what-ifs for one moment, on Hilter in particular I do think it is very naive and historically untrue to see him as the sole instigator of the entirety of something as massive as nazism and the Holocaust, so rather than assassination itself, a much more extensive form of action would have been required in preventive terms.

(that said, again, no objections at all to hypothetical retroactive assassinations of Hitler. not one bit.)

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Abbas 07.13.04 at 4:31 pm

This’ll be a brief, haphazard reply…

The left I was referring to re Khomeini was our own, i.e. in Iran. Ostensibly intelligent people who couldn’t see that Khomeini wasn’t interested in their spiteful, petty politics and that he was very serious about instituting an Islamic dictatorship. If I saw it and many of my friends/colleagues did as well, how were the others so blind?

I’m not interested in writing a manual on modern assassination, merely in arguing for its theoretical benefits. That (often misguided) realpolitik has guided western governments in the past (and continues to do so today) is irrelevent to my point: the decisions of powerful individuals are often determinant in history’s crucial events. I teach German history so know a bit about conditions before, during and after the Nazi era. My opinion that in Hitler’s absence there would have been no Holocaust and possibly no WWII is now accepted among a wide swath of people in the field. This is not the same thing as absolving — or even mitigating the guilt of — those who were complicit in his actions and, of course, Hitler was a product of his environment and could never have implemented his plans without a fertile context and enthusiastic assistance. But the fact remains that he was the essential catalyst for the Holocaust (and probably WWII) and no amount of research into “causes” will change that fact. Which is why I am receptive to a theory of assassination. When you’ve seen how dictatorships function up close you tend to lose your sqeamishness about some things.

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Abbas 07.13.04 at 4:37 pm

Sloppy spelling, in my case: squeamishness.

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mc 07.13.04 at 6:44 pm

abbas: thanks for the clarification, and apologies for confusing your point about the left and Khomeini. I know there was a good part of it in Europe too that were deluded. I have clearly much less of an idea than you on that period and on Iran. All I would guess is, again, popular opinion and the individual “appeal” of a dictator are not all that makes a dictatorship stand for years and years.

I’m not that interested in the theoretical part of debating assassination policies, that’s where I really don’t follow. And that real-politik is very relevant to how assassinations, and all kinds of intervention in general, have, or have not, been used.

Otherwise, what answer do you give to the question, why wasn’t Hitler stopped before the Holocaust?

And can we draw up a list of famous or infamous political assassinations in recent history, and look at the real motivations?

How about the Pinochet coup and the murder of Allende, was that legitimate policy? beneficial? to whom?

Weren’t most assassinations carried out precisely by dictatorships who had high profile dissenter and opponents murdered?

Or, within democracies, against ordinary politicians or political figures who had done nothing dictatorial?

I don’t know how that reality of assassinations can be escaped in favour of some theoretical argument that assumes a concern that just isn’t there. I find it baffling, really.

On the concept of individual role of dictators – of course “the decisions of powerful individuals are often determinant in history’s crucial events” – but they’re not _the_ exclusive factor, and we can’t know what would have happened if any of those multiple conditions that led to a certain crucial event had been absent. Who knows if in the absence of one catalyst, another could have performed the same role? It’s impossible to say.

I’m not arguing from a point of view of squeamishness about political murder. I just don’t see how it can be incorporated as “policy” in the actions of a modern democratic state. Plus, it’s illegal for all nations who signed up to a certain framework of legality. So that’s another reason why there’s no point discussing its pros or cons. It has already been discussed and decreed to be illegitimate.

We’re talking of something extreme, not ordinary policy. Even if humanitarian concerns were what drives interventions, there are all sorts of legitimate actions a nation can take before you need to resort to an illegal one, don’t you think? Plus, who would assassinate the leader of a country, its people, in a revolution, or another power, another country’s leaders? By which right? Politically it is not as simple as pulling a trigger. Maybe, that’s also one of the reasons why it’s been made illegal.

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